102912 Portland Survey
239 NW 13th Ave., #205 Portland, OR 97209 503.220.0575 www.dhmresearch.com @DHMresearch
Oregon Public Broadcasting/Fox 12 Portland Survey October 19-20, 2012; N=400; City of Portland likely voters 7 min; Margin of error ±2.9% to 4.9% Research Methodology This telephone survey of 400 City of Portland registered voters was conducted between October 19 – October 20, 2012, for Oregon Public Broadcasting and Fox 12. Voters were contacted through a registered voter list that included a mix of land line and cell phone numbers. Quotas were set by area of state, party, age, and gender for a representative sample. Statement of Limitations Any sampling of opinions or attitudes is subject to a margin of error, which represents the difference between a sample of a given population and the total population. For a sample size of 400, the margin of error falls within +/-2.9% and +/-4.9% at the 95% confidence level.1 This means that there is a 95% probability that the sample taken for this study would fall within the stated margins of error if compared with the results achieved from surveying the entire population. DHM Research DHM Research has been providing opinion research and consultation throughout the Pacific Northwest and other regions of the United States for over three decades. The firm is nonpartisan and independent and specializes in research projects to support public policymaking. www.dhmresearch.com
1
The reason for the difference lies in the fact that when response categories are relatively even in size, each is numerically smaller and thus slightly less able-on a statistical basis- to approximate the larger population.
Hello, I'm _________________ from DHM Research a public opinion research company. I am not trying to sell you anything. We're conducting a survey about issues in Oregon. May I speak to _____________________? [SPEAK TO NAME ON LIST. IF UNAVAILABLE, SCHEDULE CALL BACK] 1. All in all, do you think things in the City of Portland are headed in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track? Response Category N=400 Right direction 55% Wrong track 30% Don’t know 14% I would like to read you some names. For each, please tell me if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, neutral, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression of that person. If you don’t know the person well enough to have an opinion, just let me know and we’ll skip that one. (ROTATE Q2-8) Response Category 2. Mitt Romney 3. Sam Adams 4. Amanda Fritz 5. Charlie Hales 6. Barack Obama 7. Jefferson Smith 8. Mary Nolan
Very favorable
Somewhat favorable
Neutral
Somewhat unfavorable
Very unfavorable
Don’t know
14% 11% 11% 10% 50% 6% 7%
8% 23% 26% 29% 22% 18% 18%
6% 17% 21% 20% 4% 20% 22%
17% 15% 10% 14% 6% 21% 6%
52% 28% 6% 6% 17% 15% 3%
3% 6% 27% 21% 1% 20% 44%
9. In the election for Mayor of Portland, the candidates are Jefferson Smith and Charlie Hales. As of today, will you vote for Jefferson Smith or Charlie Hales, or will you write in the name of another person for Mayor? 10. (IF UNDECIDED ON Q9) Well, as of today, would you lean toward voting for Jefferson Smith, lean toward voting for Charlie Hales, or lean toward writing in the name of another person for Mayor of Portland? Response Category N=400 Total Jefferson Smith 25% Jefferson Smith 22% Lean Smith 3% Total Charlie Hales 44% Charlie Hales 41% Lean Hales 4% Total Other 12% Other 11% Lean Other 1% Undecided/Don’t know 19%
2 DHM Research | Oregon Media Portland Survey | October 2012
11. In the election for City Council, the candidates are Mary Nolan and Amanda Fritz. As of today, would you vote for Mary Nolan, or Amanda Fritz? 12. (IF UNDECIDED ON Q11) Well, as of today would you lean toward voting for Mary Nolan or Amanda Fritz for the Portland City Council? Response Category N=400 Total Mary Nolan 29% Mary Nolan 27% Lean Nolan 1% Total Amanda Fritz 37% Amanda Fritz 33% Lean Fritz 4% Undecided/Don’t know 34% The following questions are for demographic purposes only. 13. What is your age? Response Category 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ (DON’T READ) Refused
N=400 9% 16% 17% 21% 20% 17% 1%
14. Gender (By observation) Response Category Male Female
N=400 48% 52%
15. Party (From sample) Response Category Democrat Independent Republican
N=400 62% 24% 14%
16. Area of city (From Sample) Response Category West side (Northwest/Southwest) Between the Willamette River and 82nd Avenue (including North) East of 82nd Avenue
N=400 20% 60% 20%
17. What is your political ideology—Would say you are . . .? Response Category N=400 More of a Conservative 19% More of a Liberal 38% More Middle of the Road 37% (DON’T READ) Refused 7%
3 DHM Research | Oregon Media Portland Survey | October 2012
18. This poll is being sponsored by KPTV Fox 12 and Oregon Public Broadcasting (OPB). We
conduct studies similar to this one throughout the year. Would you be willing to have a reporter from one of those media outlets contact you to talk a bit more about these issues? Name______________________________Email________________________________ City_______________________________ Phone #______________________________
4 DHM Research | Oregon Media Portland Survey | October 2012
Oregon Public Broadcasting/Fox 12 Portland Survey October 19-20, 2012; N=400; City of Portland likely voters 7 min; Margin of error ±2.9% to 4.9% Research Methodology This telephone survey of 400 City of Portland registered voters was conducted between October 19 – October 20, 2012, for Oregon Public Broadcasting and Fox 12. Voters were contacted through a registered voter list that included a mix of land line and cell phone numbers. Quotas were set by area of state, party, age, and gender for a representative sample. Statement of Limitations Any sampling of opinions or attitudes is subject to a margin of error, which represents the difference between a sample of a given population and the total population. For a sample size of 400, the margin of error falls within +/-2.9% and +/-4.9% at the 95% confidence level.1 This means that there is a 95% probability that the sample taken for this study would fall within the stated margins of error if compared with the results achieved from surveying the entire population. DHM Research DHM Research has been providing opinion research and consultation throughout the Pacific Northwest and other regions of the United States for over three decades. The firm is nonpartisan and independent and specializes in research projects to support public policymaking. www.dhmresearch.com
1
The reason for the difference lies in the fact that when response categories are relatively even in size, each is numerically smaller and thus slightly less able-on a statistical basis- to approximate the larger population.
Hello, I'm _________________ from DHM Research a public opinion research company. I am not trying to sell you anything. We're conducting a survey about issues in Oregon. May I speak to _____________________? [SPEAK TO NAME ON LIST. IF UNAVAILABLE, SCHEDULE CALL BACK] 1. All in all, do you think things in the City of Portland are headed in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track? Response Category N=400 Right direction 55% Wrong track 30% Don’t know 14% I would like to read you some names. For each, please tell me if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, neutral, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression of that person. If you don’t know the person well enough to have an opinion, just let me know and we’ll skip that one. (ROTATE Q2-8) Response Category 2. Mitt Romney 3. Sam Adams 4. Amanda Fritz 5. Charlie Hales 6. Barack Obama 7. Jefferson Smith 8. Mary Nolan
Very favorable
Somewhat favorable
Neutral
Somewhat unfavorable
Very unfavorable
Don’t know
14% 11% 11% 10% 50% 6% 7%
8% 23% 26% 29% 22% 18% 18%
6% 17% 21% 20% 4% 20% 22%
17% 15% 10% 14% 6% 21% 6%
52% 28% 6% 6% 17% 15% 3%
3% 6% 27% 21% 1% 20% 44%
9. In the election for Mayor of Portland, the candidates are Jefferson Smith and Charlie Hales. As of today, will you vote for Jefferson Smith or Charlie Hales, or will you write in the name of another person for Mayor? 10. (IF UNDECIDED ON Q9) Well, as of today, would you lean toward voting for Jefferson Smith, lean toward voting for Charlie Hales, or lean toward writing in the name of another person for Mayor of Portland? Response Category N=400 Total Jefferson Smith 25% Jefferson Smith 22% Lean Smith 3% Total Charlie Hales 44% Charlie Hales 41% Lean Hales 4% Total Other 12% Other 11% Lean Other 1% Undecided/Don’t know 19%
2 DHM Research | Oregon Media Portland Survey | October 2012
11. In the election for City Council, the candidates are Mary Nolan and Amanda Fritz. As of today, would you vote for Mary Nolan, or Amanda Fritz? 12. (IF UNDECIDED ON Q11) Well, as of today would you lean toward voting for Mary Nolan or Amanda Fritz for the Portland City Council? Response Category N=400 Total Mary Nolan 29% Mary Nolan 27% Lean Nolan 1% Total Amanda Fritz 37% Amanda Fritz 33% Lean Fritz 4% Undecided/Don’t know 34% The following questions are for demographic purposes only. 13. What is your age? Response Category 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ (DON’T READ) Refused
N=400 9% 16% 17% 21% 20% 17% 1%
14. Gender (By observation) Response Category Male Female
N=400 48% 52%
15. Party (From sample) Response Category Democrat Independent Republican
N=400 62% 24% 14%
16. Area of city (From Sample) Response Category West side (Northwest/Southwest) Between the Willamette River and 82nd Avenue (including North) East of 82nd Avenue
N=400 20% 60% 20%
17. What is your political ideology—Would say you are . . .? Response Category N=400 More of a Conservative 19% More of a Liberal 38% More Middle of the Road 37% (DON’T READ) Refused 7%
3 DHM Research | Oregon Media Portland Survey | October 2012
18. This poll is being sponsored by KPTV Fox 12 and Oregon Public Broadcasting (OPB). We
conduct studies similar to this one throughout the year. Would you be willing to have a reporter from one of those media outlets contact you to talk a bit more about these issues? Name______________________________Email________________________________ City_______________________________ Phone #______________________________
4 DHM Research | Oregon Media Portland Survey | October 2012
