Population/Health/Aging: An Achilles Heel in Russian Economic Development Nicholas Eberstadt Henry Wendt Chair in Political Economy American Enterprise Institute
[email protected] CSIS Global Aging Initiative Washington, DC July 22, 2005
Russia: Population Sctructure 2000 vs. 2025 (medium variant projection) 100+ 95-99 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4
Male
-8000
-6000
-4000
-2000
Female Female
2025 2000
0
2000
4000
Source: UN World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision Population Database
6000
8000
Projected Total Population: Russia, 2000-2025
Total Population (Thousands)
150000
145000
140000
135000
130000
125000
120000 2000
UN Projections Census Projections
2005
2010
2015
Year
Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Data Base; United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision
2020
2025
Births, Deaths, and Natural Increase in Population: 1960, 1965-2004 3000000
2500000
2000000
Population
1500000
1000000
500000
Births
-500000
-1000000
Deaths Natural Increase 1960 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
0
Year
Sources: Source: The Russian Federation Ejegodnik: 2004 (State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics, Moscow, 2004), Table 2.25, Source for 2004 figures: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, accessed April 15, 2005
Deaths per Hundred Births for Negative Natural Increase Countries Slovak Republic (2003)
101.04
Greece (2002)
101.06
Italy (2003) Slovenia (2003)
108.51 111.49
Czech Republic (2003)
117.20
Moldova (2003)
117.82
Germany (2003) Romania (2003) Croatia (2003) Lithuania (2003) Estonia (2002) Hungary (2003) Latvia (2003) Russian Federation (2003)
119.77 125.51 132.58 133.71 140.63 144.09 154.44 160.78
Bulgaria (2003)
166.28
Belarus (2002)
166.29
Ukraine (2003)
188.24
Source: Calculated from Recent Demographic Developments in Europe, Council of Europe: Belgium, January 2005.
Projected Population Change, 2000-2025: Russia, Rest of Eastern Europe, and West. Europe Russia
Rest E.Eur.
W.Eur
Total Population
-11.8%
-12.7%
+ 3.8%
Population 15-64
-15.4%
-15.1%
- 2.3%
(Population 15-24)
(-36.3%)
(-45.3%)
(-12.7%)
Population 65+
+25.7%
+30.4%
+44.0%
Source: UN Population Division, World Population Prospects, 2004 Revisions, www.unpopulation.org. NOTE: UNDP’s definition of “Eastern Europe” excludes the Baltic countries, Albania, and most of former Yugoslavia
Basic Demographic Indicators For Europe By Region (UNPD Projections) W.Europe
Russia
E.Europe (w/o Russia)
Population (million) 2005
431
145
143
Pop Growth %/yr 2000/2005
0.33
-0.46
-0.52
Net Reproduction Rate 2000/2005 0.72
0.62
0.58
Life Expectancy 2000/2005 (Years)
65.4
70.5
77.6
NOTE: UNDP’s definition of “Eastern Europe” excludes the Baltic countries, Albania, and most of former Yugoslavia
Total Fertility Rate: U.S. (by state), Russia, and Europe, 2000
Total Fertility Rate
3 2.5 2 U.S. TFRs 2000
1.5
Eur TFRs 2000 EU-15 TFRs 2000 Russia TFR 2000
1 0.5 0
Notes: U.S. TFR includes the 50 and the District of Columbia; blue bars indicate TFRs for European countries outside of the EU-15. Sources: Institut National d'etudes demographiques, "Population en chiffres," available at http://www.ined.fr/population-en-chiffres/paysdeveloppes/index.html (accessed August 4, 2004); National Vital Statistics Report Vol 52, No. 19 (May 10, 2004).
Illustrative Percentages of Population 65+: Stable Populations, Coale-Demeny “West Model”, Under Alternative Fertility and Mortality Schedules GRR 0.8
GRR 1.0
GRR 1.5
GRR 2.0
GRR 2.5
GRR 3.0
Female LE 20
16.62
13.36
8.51
5.81
4.24
3.21
Female LE 30
17.85
14.25
8.73
5.86
4.16
3.08
Female LE 40
18.87
14.88
8.96
5.89
4.13
3.02
Female LE 50
19.74
15.45
9.27
5.94
4.11
2.97
Female LE 60
20.13
15.67
9.16
5.87
4.03
2.91
Female LE 70
21.24
16.48
9.56
6.10
4.15
2.98
Total Population Age 15-24, Russia, 1975-2025, (medium variant projection)
Total Population (thousands)
30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Year
Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision.
2015
2020
2025
Changes in 65+ Population As Percentage of Total Population: 2000 vs. 2025 (US Census Bureau Projections) Western Europe
2000 16.3
2025 22.7
Difference + 6.4
Bulgaria Czech Republic Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Poland Romania Russian Federation Slovakia Ukraine
16.6 13.8 15.0 14.6 14.7 13.7 12.3 13.3 12.5 11.4 14.1
23.2 22.9 22.7 21.3 20.7 21.0 21.6 19.0 19.8 19.3 20.6
+ 6.6 + 9.1 + 7.7 + 6.7 + 6.0 + 7.3 + 9.3 + 5.7 + 7.3 + 7.9 + 6.5
Estimated and Projected Population 65+: Russia, United States, and Western Europe, 1975-2025 (percent of total) 25 Russia
20
United States Western Europe
15 10
19 75 19 80 19 85 19 90 19 95 20 00 20 05 20 10 20 15 20 20 20 25
5
Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2001 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp, 21 January 2005
Percentage of the Population Aged 65+ vs. GDP per Capita: Developed Countries 1950-2000 vs. Emerging Economies 2000
Per Capita GDP (1990 international GearyKhamis dollars)
30,000 Europe
25,000
Japan United States China 2000
20,000
Brazil 2000 India 2000
15,000
Indonesia 2000 Mexico 2000
10,000
Poland 2000 Russia 2000 Thailand 2000
5,000
Turkey 2000
0 0
5
10
15
Percentage of Population Aged 65+
Sources: Maddison (2003); UNDP (2004)
20
Health Equals Wealth: Worldwide LE vs. PPP Per Capita GDP, 2003 100000
10000
1000 0.0723x
y = 46.101e 2 R = 0.6519 100 30
35
40
45
Source: World Development Indicators, 2003
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
Estimated Changes in Life Expectancy at Birth in Europe, by Region: 1960/65 to 2000/2005 (years) Overall LE
Male LE
Western Europe
+7.3
+6.8
Eastern Europe (without Russia)
+1.1
-0.8
Russian Federation
-2.5
-4.2
Note: UN definition of "Eastern Europe" excludes the Baltic countries, Albania, and most of the former Yugoslavia. Source: Derived from UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, available electronically at .
Female Life Expectancy at Birth, Switzerland vs. Russia,1970-2003 85.00 83.00 81.00 79.00 Age
77.00 75.00 73.00 71.00 69.00 67.00
Russia Switzerland 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
65.00 Year Sources: The Demographic Yearbook of Russia: 1993 (State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics, Moscow, 1993), Table 2.5; The Demographic Yearbook of Russia: 2004 (State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics, Moscow, 2004), Table 2.6; Human Mortality Database, available online at www.mortality.org, accessed January 20, 2005.
Male Life Expectancy at Birth, Switzerland vs Russia, 1970-2003 80.00 Russia 75.00
Switzerland
Age
70.00 65.00 60.00
1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
55.00 Year
Sources: The Demographic Yearbook of Russia: 1993 (State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics, Moscow, 1993), Table 2.5; The Demographic Yearbook of Russia: 2004 (State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics, Moscow, 2004), Table 2.6; Human Mortality Database, available online at www.mortality.org, accessed January 20, 2005.
Age-Standardized Mortality, 1965-2001: Deaths from All Causes 2,400
Mortality Rate (deaths per 100,000 population)
2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 Males
1,400
Females
1,200 1,000
20 00
19 95
19 90
19 85
19 80
19 75
19 70
19 65
800
Year
Source: The Demographic Yearbook of Russia: 2002 Statistical Handbook, State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics (Goskomstat of Russia), Moscow, 2002, Table 6.4.
Age Standardized Mortality, Deaths from Cardiovascular Diseases: Russia, 1965-2001 1,200
Males
Mortality Rate: Chapter IX Causes (deaths per 100,000 population)
1,100
Females
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
20 00
19 95
19 90
19 85
19 80
19 75
19 70
19 65
400
Year
Source: The Demographic Yearbook of Russia: 2002 Statistical Handbook, State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics (Goskomstat of Russia), Moscow, 2002, Table 6.4.
Deaths from diseases of the circulatory system, 25-64 years: Russia and Selected European Countries Russian Federation (2001) Turkmenistan (1998) Kazakhstan (2001) Belarus (2001) Ukraine (2000) Kyrgyzstan (2001) Uzbekistan (2001) Republic of Moldova Latvia (2001) Bulgaria (2001) Azerbaijan (2001) Tajikistan (1999) Estonia (2001) Romania (2001) Georgia (2001) Yugoslavia (2000) Lithuania (2001) Bosnia and Herzegovina Hungary (2001) TFYR Macedonia (2000) Slovakia (2000) Poland (2000) Armenia (2000) Croatia (2001) Czech Republic (2001) Albania (2000) Ireland (2000) Slovenia (2001) Greece (1999) United Kingdom (2000) Finland (2001) Germany (1999) Luxemburg (2001) Austria (2001) Denmark (1999) Belgium (1996) Netherlands (2000) Malta (2001) Portugal (2000) San Marino (2000) Israel (1998) Sw eden (1999) Norw ay (1999) Iceland (1997) Italy (1999) Spain (1999) Sw itzerland (1999) France (1999)
378.1 361.4 344.0 320.4 293.9 290.5 288.8 272.6 254.9 254.1 250.2 233.3 220.1 217.5 215.3 209.7 189.9 188.1 175.5 172.8 153.1 135.9 115.9 102.9 98.0 97.5 91.2 91.0 87.7 85.6 84.1 83.7 79.3 76.6 76.0 74.7 72.0 71.3 70.1 69.9 67.6 65.0 63.6 56.8 55.2
0
100
200
300
400
442.7 441.9 419.8
Post-communist countries Countries which have never been communist
500
Per 100,000 persons
Source: Atlas of Health in Europe, The World Heath Organization at www. Euro.who.int/document/E79876.pdf
Age Standardized Mortality, Deaths from Accidents & Injuries: Russia, 1965-2001 500
Mortality Rate: Chapter XIX Causes (deaths per 100,000 population)
Males
Females
400
300
200
100
20 00
19 95
19 90
19 85
19 80
19 75
19 70
19 65
0
Year
Source: The Demographic Yearbook of Russia: 2002 Statistical Handbook, State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics (Goskomstat of Russia), Moscow, 2002, Table 6.4.
Deaths from external causes of injury and poisoning, 0-64 years: Russia and Selected European Countries Russian Federation (2001) Belarus (2001) Estonia (2001) Lithuania (2001) Kazakhstan (2001) Ukraine (2000) Latvia (2001) Republic of Moldova (2000) Kyrgyzstan (2001) Hungary (2001) Romania (2001) Poland (2000) Turkmenistan (1998) Finland (2001) Slovenia (2001) Slovakia (2000) Uzbekistan (2000) Czech Republic (2001) Bulgaria (2001) Luxemburg (2001) Albania (2000) Croatia (2001) Belgium (1996) France (1999) Tajikistan (1999) Austria (2001) Greece (1999) Portugal (2000) Ireland (2000) Iceland (1997) Denmark (1999) Yugoslavia (2000) Spain (1999) TFYR Macedonia (2000) Sw itzerland (1999) Armenia (2000) Georgia (2001) Norw ay (1999) Germany (1999) Azerbaijan (2001) Sw eden (1999) Israel (1998) Italy (1999) United Kingdom (2000) Malta (2001) Netherlands (2000)
82.0
56.0 57.3 52.1 61.0 49.4 52.6 41.7 32.7 22.1 23.7 18.5 29.4 24.9 17.8 17.1 23.7 17.9 16.8 25.1 17.5 16.4 23.6 21.4 13.6 16.8 15.4 13.2 13.7 13.6 19.2 14.8 12.5 11.7 15.2 9.1 7.9 14.6 13.8 11.3 15.3 Per 100,000 10.1 9.9 Females 11.7 10.9 11.7 -200
-100
278.5 270.3 264.7 263.8 246.8 246.3
369.6
Post-communist countries Countries which have never been communist
162.2 134.2 94.2 94 92.3 91.7 91.7 87.1 86.6 78.2 70.3 70.2 69.9 69.5 68.8 63 62.9 57.1 55.2 54.4 53.1 52.9 52.4 52 51.6 48 45.4 44.6 44.2 43.9 43.6 41.5 40.3 40.1 39.9 Per 100,000 37.5 M ales 35.9 30 28.8 0
100
200
300
400
Source: Atlas of Health in Europe, The World Heath Organization at www. Euro.who.int/document/E79876.pdf
Total Alcohol Consumption and Russian Male Life Expectancy, 1992-2001 57
17
Per capita alcohol consumption* 58
Male life expectancy
15
59
14
60
13
61
12
62
11
63
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Years
Liters
16
2001
Note: inverted to scale for life expectancy Sources: Julie DaVanzo and Clifford Grammich, Dire Demographics: Population Trends in the Russian Federation. RAND, 2001; Clifford Grammich updates provided to Nick Eberstadt, 2004
Increase in Age-Standartized Mortality Rate (percent)
Rise in Mortality, Russia: 1970/71-2003 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5
Males Females
0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69
Years Source: The Russian Federation Ejegodnik: 2004, State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics (Goskomstat of Russia), Moscow, 2004; US Census Bureau, International Data Base website at http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbprint.html, accessed on April 12, 2005
A 20-year old Man's Odds of Dying Before Age 65: Europe, U.S., Russia, 2000 60 50 40 30 20 10
Russia Europe USA EU-15
Note: Calculations based upon current "life tables" for the year 2000. "Europe" includes countries outside of the EU-15. Source: World Health Organization Life Tables, 2000, available at http://www3.who.int/whosis/life_tables/life_tables.cfm?path=evidence,life_tables&language=english (accessed on September 20, 2004).
Russia
Belarus
Ukraine
Estonia
Latvia
Hungary
Lithuania
Romania
Bulgaria
Poland
Slovakia
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Albania
Croatia
Czech Republic
Yugoslavia
Slovenia
Portugal
Finland
USA
Denmark
France
Luxembourg
Austria
Germany
Belgium
Spain
Greece
Ireland
U.K.
Italy
Netherlands
Sweden
0
12
"More Aged Than Their Years": Mortality At Age 30 for Men In Selected Post-Socalist Countries Compared With The Dutch Male Mortality Schedule, c. 2003
10
Dutch male survival schedule Bulgarian male at age 30
8
Czech Republic male at age 30 East German male at age 30
6
Hungarian male at age 30 Latvian male at age 30
4
Lithuanian male at age 30
2
Russian male at age 30
30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 4 41 1 .5 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 5 51 1 .5 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60
0 Age
Source:www.mortality.org
"Positive Health Momentum": Male Mortality in Japan by birth cohort 1920-1969
Mortality rate (deaths per 1000 persons)
100.00
1920
10.00
1930 1940 1950 1960
1.00
1969
0.10 Age Source: www.mortality.org, accessed on 11 April 2005
"Negative Health M omentum": M ale M o rtality in Russia by birth cohorts 1920-1970
Mortality rate (deaths per 1000 persons)
100
1920
10
1930 1940 1950 1960
1
1970
0 Ages
Source: www.mortality.org, accessed on 11 April 2005
Male Life Expectancy at Birth: Russia vs. Indian Subcontinent, 1989-2025 Life Expectancy at Birth (years)
70
65
Russia Bangledesh India Pakistan
60
55 1989
1995
2001
2007
2013
2019
2025
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Data Base. Available online at http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbnew.html, accessed January 19, 2005.
Median Age for Persons 15-65 in Select Countries, 2000 and 2025 46 44
Age
42 40
2000
38
2025
36 34
Country Source: U.S. Census Bureau International Data Base
e kr ai n U
us si a R
ni a
Li th ua
La tv ia
ia Es to n
Sl ov ak ia
om an
ia
d R
Po la n
H
un g
ar y
lic ep ub
R
C
ze ch
Bu lg a
ria
32
Intercensal Population Change: January 1989-October 2002
Source: "The 2002 Census in Russia: Preliminary Results" by Timothy Heleniak, Eurasian Geography and Economics, 2003, 44, No. 1, pp. 432-444
HIV/AIDS Prevalence in Russia: Selected Estimates Source
Total
% Adult Population (15-49)
Russia Ministry of Health
286,642
0.4%
UNAIDS Yearend 2003, Central Estimate
860,000
1.1%
Dr. V. Pokrovsky Nov. 2004, Low Estimate
1,000,000
1.3%
UNAIDS Yearend 2003, Upper Estimate
1,400,000
1.8%
Dr. V. Pokrovsky Nov. 2004, High Estimate
1,500,000
1.9%
U.S. National Intelligence Council Oct. 2002, Upper Estimate
2,000,000
2.5%
Note RMOH Prevalence taken as cumulative HIV registrations minus cumulative HIV/AIDS Deaths. Sources: U.S. National Intelligence Council; UNAids; “AIDS in Russia: An Analysis of Statistics” (Dr. Murray Feshbach and Cristina M. Galvin, January 2005.
Projected Life Expectancy: Russia, 2000-2025 75
Life Expectancy at Birth (years)
70
65
60
Cens us projections Mild Epidem ic Intermediate Epidemic Severe Epidem ic 55
50 2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Ye ar
Source: Nicholas Eberstadt, "Projecting HIV in Eurasia: Our Methodology (Charts)," available online at http://www.aei.org/docLib/20021222_pseber021112a.pdf.
2025