Migration Assumptions - PEOPLE 36
Werner Grundlingh (250) 387 -8896
[email protected] September 2011
Migration Assumptions PEOPLE 36 Summary Over the short term, both net international and interprovincial migration to BC is projected to be slower than expected before rising towards a steadier, albeit more modest, pattern of positive growth. Looking beyond the five-year mark, BC is projected to play host to approximately 1,539,000 migrants (both international and inter-provincial) between 2011 and 2036. Introduction Control totals for the population and migration components for PEOPLE 36 are provided by the British Columbia-level population projection 11/05 1. Regional migration is projected using a combination of historical trends, and information on future developments that may have an impact on population. Historical trends are reflected in the allocation of provincial total interprovincial and international in-migration to the areas within British Columbia. In general, the long-term (beyond five years) projections are based on historical trends modified to reflect general assumptions. In the short-term, consideration is given to more specific events which will likely influence migration. This includes variations in resource based activity, as well as the refinement of these raw resources. Examples are: mine openings and closures; changes to the 1 See “Population Forecast 11/05 Technical Assumptions,” Demographic Analysis Section, BC Stats, Ministry of Labour, Citizens’ Services and Open Government, Government of British Columbia, September 2011.
Allowable Annual Cut of timber; the fisheries; the building, reopening, or closing of smelters, mills, or processing plants. Other activities that are considered are the expansion or contraction of the transportation network as well as policies that may restrict or encourage population growth. British Columbia Projected net international and net interprovincial migration are derived through component and regression methods respectively, and are used as control totals for the determination of net migration to the areas within British Columbia. Figure 1 British Columbia net migration components Net interprovincial migration 100
Net international migration
Thousands Estimated
Forecast
80 60 40 20 0 −20
Census Year
Despite an anticipated influx of migrants over the next 26 years in excess of former projections (PEOPLE 34 and 35), migration into BC is expected to be slower in the
BC Stats is a branch of Service BC, Ministry of Labour, Citizens’ Services and Open Government. Please call (250) 387-0359 for details.
Migration Assumptions underlying the regional projection (PEOPLE 36)
short-term. This will result mainly from a number of factors associated with non-permanent residents (NPRs). These factors include a recent—since the second quarter of 2008—downward trend in NPRs and a number of policy changes initiated by Citizenship and Immigration Canada (CIC). Vancouver Island/Coast Region Most of the population in the Vancouver Island/Coast region is concentrated in the southeast corner of Vancouver Island, particularly within the Capital and Nanaimo regional districts. Both regions have experienced population growth and expansions over the past decade and together account for two-thirds of the development region population.
This is the most populous region in the province and receives the bulk of immigrants and interprovincial in-migrants. Approximately 45 percent of interprovincial in-migrants and almost 90 percent of international immigrants to British Columbia chose to initially settle in the Mainland/Southwest region over the 2006 to 2010 period.
Thousands Estimated
The short-term outlook for this region is for generally healthy net in-migration, as the area continues expansion of its urban areas. This positive outlook must be tempered somewhat by the continuing decline in the coastal forest industry, as well as a minor impact from the loss of BC NPRs. Over the long term, it is expected that the onset of retirement for the ‘baby boom’ generation will lead to somewhat larger net inflows of migrants to areas like the Capital and Nanaimo regional districts. With the growing number of retirees, attractive areas, particularly those outside of large urban cores will likely experience population growth. From the most heavily populated areas there will likely be some migration outward to nearby communities. Mainland/Southwest Region
Figure 2 Vancouver Island/Coast net migration 20
BC Stats
Forecast
15
10
5
The Greater Vancouver Regional District (GVRD) is the destination of most international immigrants, and is also home to over 80% of the non-permanent residents in the entire province.
0
−5
Census Year
The majority of the smaller communities in the northern portion of the region, and many in the more central coastal areas, are dependent on the resource sector. Consequently, migration patterns to these areas tend to fluctuate with trends in this sector.
Conversely, in terms of intraprovincial migration (movement within the province) there are generally more people moving out of the area than moving in. The area has experienced annual net outflow of persons to other parts of the province since 1990— slightly easing during the recession. These trends are projected to continue resulting in
Page 2 of 6
Migration Assumptions underlying the regional projection (PEOPLE 36)
an immediate short term slowdown due to the anticipated loss in NPRs. Figure 3 Mainland/Southwest net migration 60
Thousands Estimated
Forecast
50 40 30
BC Stats
working age as well as retirees. Activity in the forestry and mining sectors also influence migration flows to and from the area. Migration from both inside and out-ofprovince to this region has been positive historically. Additionally, this region has experienced an increase in net interprovincial migration flows since 2002, after several years of lower net flows in the late 1990’s. These positive net migration trends are projected to persist for this area. Figure 4 Thompson/Okanagan net migration
20 10
20
0
Thousands Estimated
Forecast
15 10
Census Year
Over the long term, the distribution of growth in the Mainland/Southwest region will be influenced by the implementation of the Liveable Region Strategic Plan of the GVRD. This plan proposes a “growth concentration area” roughly comprised of Burnaby, Coquitlam, Port Moody, Port Coquitlam, New Westminster, Vancouver, North Surrey, and North Delta. Amongst other things, the plan aims to concentrate growth in these areas and to reduce traffic congestion by locating jobs near where people live. The long-term outlook is for reduced growth rates for areas outside the growth concentration area; however, as long as migration to the province continues to be robust, all areas within this region will continue to experience strong growth. Thompson Okanagan Region This region is generally known for agriculture and tourism, but it also has a strong manufacturing base and attracts people of
5 0 −5
Census Year
Manufacturing and service sector growth, particularly in the Central Okanagan area, will likely continue to attract people and increase economic diversification which should offer some stability. There is significant mining activity across the entire development region, while forestry employs a sizable share of the total population. There will also likely be increased in-migration as the ‘baby boomers’ begin to retire. This area is a popular retirement centre, and the increase in the proportion of retirees in the population will support more service sector employment.
Page 3 of 6
Migration Assumptions underlying the regional projection (PEOPLE 36)
BC Stats
Over the long term, the region is expected to continue receiving strong net inflows of population.
recession growth in the short term is anticipated to be relatively flat, picking up in the long term.
Kootenay Region
Cariboo Region
There are a number of large coal mines along the Rocky Mountain Trench and neighbouring Alberta making mining, together with smelting, a major economic activity in this region. Depletion of reserves at the coal mines may cause increased outflows of population in the long run; however, exploration has recently increased along the southern border with the US. Tourism and the construction of fourseason resorts will likely continue to attract workers particularly in the eastern portion of the region. Overall, it is projected that this region will receive modest net inflows of migrants over the duration of the projection. Interprovincial movements will continue to figure more prominently in net migration levels for this region, due to its close proximity to urban centres in Southern Alberta.
The Cariboo region is home to a large number of sawmills and pulp mills and is highly dependent on the forest industry. Despite increased demand in Asia, the coming years for this area may face lumber supply shortages due to the pine beetle infestation. Mining is becoming increasingly important in this region. There are several active metal mines in the area, and several in proposal and permitting stages. Farming and ranching activities also account for a sizable portion of local economic activity. In the short run, this area will continue to experience net migration outflows, although at lower than historical levels. This is due to regional investment into current mining expansions as well as future development proposals. In the long run, net migration to this area is projected to return to positive levels as its economy continues to move away from forestry activities.
Figure 5 Kootenay net migration 5
Figure 6 Cariboo net migration
Thousands Estimated
Forecast
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
Thousands Estimated
Forecast
1
0
0
−1
−1
−2
−2
−3
−3
−4
−4 −5 Census Year
Economic activity in Kootenay is likely less robust than other areas in BC. Post-
Page 4 of 6
Census Year
Migration Assumptions underlying the regional projection (PEOPLE 36)
BC Stats
North Coast Region
Nechako Region
This region has experienced a net outflow of migrants over the last ten years. This trend is expected to continue over the short term, although at a lower level. There are several mines in the area and several more that are in the planning and construction phases. These all influence short and long term employment, resulting in moderate migration fluctuations. The forestry industry continues to be important. The proposed LNG terminal in Kitimat is receiving increasing support with initial shipments expected around 2015. The addition of the Northern Gateway Pipeline would increase terminal activity in the near future. Hydro system upgrades for this area in the form of the Northwest Transmission Line is planned to expand service and provide an interconnection point for future industrial development. In the short term, the trend of steady out-migration will continue for the area, tempered by effects of the increase in port activity including potential construction projects, and the increase in mining activity.
Most of the population in this development region live in the Bulkley Valley, which is located in the southern portion of this region. Here, forestry is a major economic activity. Logging and milling activity will be negatively impacted in the long term by the mountain pine beetle infestation. This will have implications for the size of migration flows from this area.
Figure 7 North Coast net migration 1
Thousands Estimated
Forecast
0
−1
−2
−3
Figure 8 Nechako net migration 1
Thousands Estimated
Forecast
0
−1
−2
Census Year
Mining also plays an important role in migration patterns to the region. Not only is the region mineral rich, but Smithers is also one of the main supply and service points for mineral exploration and development in northern British Columbia. It is expected that developments in the mining industry will provide jobs as well as indirect and induced employment in the region. Net intraprovincial migration for this area has been negative for the past decade. This trend is projected to continue in the short and medium term, but at a lower level than previously.
Census Year
Page 5 of 6
Migration Assumptions underlying the regional projection (PEOPLE 36)
Northeast Region The Northeast region has benefited from a booming mining, oil and gas sector, but the recent downturn has put some of those plans on hold. The region has recently experienced positive net intraprovincial migration, but negative net interprovincial as areas in Alberta continue to draw migrants from this area. Electricity demand in Northeast has grown significantly, pushing BC Hydro’s development of Site C project to the forefront. Additional drive for this project in the short term follows legislation for BC to become energy self-sufficient by 2016. Consequently, production is anticipated to pick up in the short term, with completion and labour withdrawal shortly thereafter.
Figure 9 Northeast net migration 3
before rising towards a steadier, more modest, pattern of positive growth. However, on a regional basis migration will vary. The mainland/southwest corner of BC is expected to receive the bulk of international and interprovincial migrants resulting in the strongest population growth over the forecast period. On the other hand, the Cariboo, Nechako and North Coast regions are all expected to grow at a much slower rate due to much lower levels of in-migration. With an expected influx of approximately 1,539,000 migrants (both international and inter-provincial) between 2011 and 2036, the population of BC in 2036 is expected to be larger, more diverse and increasingly concentrated in the lower mainland over the coming years. For more information on the People 36 projections, please visit our website at http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/data/pop/popstart.asp
Thousand Estimated
BC Stats
Forecast
2 1 0 −1 −2
Census Year
Conclusion As stated earlier, both net international and interprovincial migration to BC is projected to be slower than expected in the short term
Page 6 of 6
[email protected] September 2011
Migration Assumptions PEOPLE 36 Summary Over the short term, both net international and interprovincial migration to BC is projected to be slower than expected before rising towards a steadier, albeit more modest, pattern of positive growth. Looking beyond the five-year mark, BC is projected to play host to approximately 1,539,000 migrants (both international and inter-provincial) between 2011 and 2036. Introduction Control totals for the population and migration components for PEOPLE 36 are provided by the British Columbia-level population projection 11/05 1. Regional migration is projected using a combination of historical trends, and information on future developments that may have an impact on population. Historical trends are reflected in the allocation of provincial total interprovincial and international in-migration to the areas within British Columbia. In general, the long-term (beyond five years) projections are based on historical trends modified to reflect general assumptions. In the short-term, consideration is given to more specific events which will likely influence migration. This includes variations in resource based activity, as well as the refinement of these raw resources. Examples are: mine openings and closures; changes to the 1 See “Population Forecast 11/05 Technical Assumptions,” Demographic Analysis Section, BC Stats, Ministry of Labour, Citizens’ Services and Open Government, Government of British Columbia, September 2011.
Allowable Annual Cut of timber; the fisheries; the building, reopening, or closing of smelters, mills, or processing plants. Other activities that are considered are the expansion or contraction of the transportation network as well as policies that may restrict or encourage population growth. British Columbia Projected net international and net interprovincial migration are derived through component and regression methods respectively, and are used as control totals for the determination of net migration to the areas within British Columbia. Figure 1 British Columbia net migration components Net interprovincial migration 100
Net international migration
Thousands Estimated
Forecast
80 60 40 20 0 −20
Census Year
Despite an anticipated influx of migrants over the next 26 years in excess of former projections (PEOPLE 34 and 35), migration into BC is expected to be slower in the
BC Stats is a branch of Service BC, Ministry of Labour, Citizens’ Services and Open Government. Please call (250) 387-0359 for details.
Migration Assumptions underlying the regional projection (PEOPLE 36)
short-term. This will result mainly from a number of factors associated with non-permanent residents (NPRs). These factors include a recent—since the second quarter of 2008—downward trend in NPRs and a number of policy changes initiated by Citizenship and Immigration Canada (CIC). Vancouver Island/Coast Region Most of the population in the Vancouver Island/Coast region is concentrated in the southeast corner of Vancouver Island, particularly within the Capital and Nanaimo regional districts. Both regions have experienced population growth and expansions over the past decade and together account for two-thirds of the development region population.
This is the most populous region in the province and receives the bulk of immigrants and interprovincial in-migrants. Approximately 45 percent of interprovincial in-migrants and almost 90 percent of international immigrants to British Columbia chose to initially settle in the Mainland/Southwest region over the 2006 to 2010 period.
Thousands Estimated
The short-term outlook for this region is for generally healthy net in-migration, as the area continues expansion of its urban areas. This positive outlook must be tempered somewhat by the continuing decline in the coastal forest industry, as well as a minor impact from the loss of BC NPRs. Over the long term, it is expected that the onset of retirement for the ‘baby boom’ generation will lead to somewhat larger net inflows of migrants to areas like the Capital and Nanaimo regional districts. With the growing number of retirees, attractive areas, particularly those outside of large urban cores will likely experience population growth. From the most heavily populated areas there will likely be some migration outward to nearby communities. Mainland/Southwest Region
Figure 2 Vancouver Island/Coast net migration 20
BC Stats
Forecast
15
10
5
The Greater Vancouver Regional District (GVRD) is the destination of most international immigrants, and is also home to over 80% of the non-permanent residents in the entire province.
0
−5
Census Year
The majority of the smaller communities in the northern portion of the region, and many in the more central coastal areas, are dependent on the resource sector. Consequently, migration patterns to these areas tend to fluctuate with trends in this sector.
Conversely, in terms of intraprovincial migration (movement within the province) there are generally more people moving out of the area than moving in. The area has experienced annual net outflow of persons to other parts of the province since 1990— slightly easing during the recession. These trends are projected to continue resulting in
Page 2 of 6
Migration Assumptions underlying the regional projection (PEOPLE 36)
an immediate short term slowdown due to the anticipated loss in NPRs. Figure 3 Mainland/Southwest net migration 60
Thousands Estimated
Forecast
50 40 30
BC Stats
working age as well as retirees. Activity in the forestry and mining sectors also influence migration flows to and from the area. Migration from both inside and out-ofprovince to this region has been positive historically. Additionally, this region has experienced an increase in net interprovincial migration flows since 2002, after several years of lower net flows in the late 1990’s. These positive net migration trends are projected to persist for this area. Figure 4 Thompson/Okanagan net migration
20 10
20
0
Thousands Estimated
Forecast
15 10
Census Year
Over the long term, the distribution of growth in the Mainland/Southwest region will be influenced by the implementation of the Liveable Region Strategic Plan of the GVRD. This plan proposes a “growth concentration area” roughly comprised of Burnaby, Coquitlam, Port Moody, Port Coquitlam, New Westminster, Vancouver, North Surrey, and North Delta. Amongst other things, the plan aims to concentrate growth in these areas and to reduce traffic congestion by locating jobs near where people live. The long-term outlook is for reduced growth rates for areas outside the growth concentration area; however, as long as migration to the province continues to be robust, all areas within this region will continue to experience strong growth. Thompson Okanagan Region This region is generally known for agriculture and tourism, but it also has a strong manufacturing base and attracts people of
5 0 −5
Census Year
Manufacturing and service sector growth, particularly in the Central Okanagan area, will likely continue to attract people and increase economic diversification which should offer some stability. There is significant mining activity across the entire development region, while forestry employs a sizable share of the total population. There will also likely be increased in-migration as the ‘baby boomers’ begin to retire. This area is a popular retirement centre, and the increase in the proportion of retirees in the population will support more service sector employment.
Page 3 of 6
Migration Assumptions underlying the regional projection (PEOPLE 36)
BC Stats
Over the long term, the region is expected to continue receiving strong net inflows of population.
recession growth in the short term is anticipated to be relatively flat, picking up in the long term.
Kootenay Region
Cariboo Region
There are a number of large coal mines along the Rocky Mountain Trench and neighbouring Alberta making mining, together with smelting, a major economic activity in this region. Depletion of reserves at the coal mines may cause increased outflows of population in the long run; however, exploration has recently increased along the southern border with the US. Tourism and the construction of fourseason resorts will likely continue to attract workers particularly in the eastern portion of the region. Overall, it is projected that this region will receive modest net inflows of migrants over the duration of the projection. Interprovincial movements will continue to figure more prominently in net migration levels for this region, due to its close proximity to urban centres in Southern Alberta.
The Cariboo region is home to a large number of sawmills and pulp mills and is highly dependent on the forest industry. Despite increased demand in Asia, the coming years for this area may face lumber supply shortages due to the pine beetle infestation. Mining is becoming increasingly important in this region. There are several active metal mines in the area, and several in proposal and permitting stages. Farming and ranching activities also account for a sizable portion of local economic activity. In the short run, this area will continue to experience net migration outflows, although at lower than historical levels. This is due to regional investment into current mining expansions as well as future development proposals. In the long run, net migration to this area is projected to return to positive levels as its economy continues to move away from forestry activities.
Figure 5 Kootenay net migration 5
Figure 6 Cariboo net migration
Thousands Estimated
Forecast
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
Thousands Estimated
Forecast
1
0
0
−1
−1
−2
−2
−3
−3
−4
−4 −5 Census Year
Economic activity in Kootenay is likely less robust than other areas in BC. Post-
Page 4 of 6
Census Year
Migration Assumptions underlying the regional projection (PEOPLE 36)
BC Stats
North Coast Region
Nechako Region
This region has experienced a net outflow of migrants over the last ten years. This trend is expected to continue over the short term, although at a lower level. There are several mines in the area and several more that are in the planning and construction phases. These all influence short and long term employment, resulting in moderate migration fluctuations. The forestry industry continues to be important. The proposed LNG terminal in Kitimat is receiving increasing support with initial shipments expected around 2015. The addition of the Northern Gateway Pipeline would increase terminal activity in the near future. Hydro system upgrades for this area in the form of the Northwest Transmission Line is planned to expand service and provide an interconnection point for future industrial development. In the short term, the trend of steady out-migration will continue for the area, tempered by effects of the increase in port activity including potential construction projects, and the increase in mining activity.
Most of the population in this development region live in the Bulkley Valley, which is located in the southern portion of this region. Here, forestry is a major economic activity. Logging and milling activity will be negatively impacted in the long term by the mountain pine beetle infestation. This will have implications for the size of migration flows from this area.
Figure 7 North Coast net migration 1
Thousands Estimated
Forecast
0
−1
−2
−3
Figure 8 Nechako net migration 1
Thousands Estimated
Forecast
0
−1
−2
Census Year
Mining also plays an important role in migration patterns to the region. Not only is the region mineral rich, but Smithers is also one of the main supply and service points for mineral exploration and development in northern British Columbia. It is expected that developments in the mining industry will provide jobs as well as indirect and induced employment in the region. Net intraprovincial migration for this area has been negative for the past decade. This trend is projected to continue in the short and medium term, but at a lower level than previously.
Census Year
Page 5 of 6
Migration Assumptions underlying the regional projection (PEOPLE 36)
Northeast Region The Northeast region has benefited from a booming mining, oil and gas sector, but the recent downturn has put some of those plans on hold. The region has recently experienced positive net intraprovincial migration, but negative net interprovincial as areas in Alberta continue to draw migrants from this area. Electricity demand in Northeast has grown significantly, pushing BC Hydro’s development of Site C project to the forefront. Additional drive for this project in the short term follows legislation for BC to become energy self-sufficient by 2016. Consequently, production is anticipated to pick up in the short term, with completion and labour withdrawal shortly thereafter.
Figure 9 Northeast net migration 3
before rising towards a steadier, more modest, pattern of positive growth. However, on a regional basis migration will vary. The mainland/southwest corner of BC is expected to receive the bulk of international and interprovincial migrants resulting in the strongest population growth over the forecast period. On the other hand, the Cariboo, Nechako and North Coast regions are all expected to grow at a much slower rate due to much lower levels of in-migration. With an expected influx of approximately 1,539,000 migrants (both international and inter-provincial) between 2011 and 2036, the population of BC in 2036 is expected to be larger, more diverse and increasingly concentrated in the lower mainland over the coming years. For more information on the People 36 projections, please visit our website at http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/data/pop/popstart.asp
Thousand Estimated
BC Stats
Forecast
2 1 0 −1 −2
Census Year
Conclusion As stated earlier, both net international and interprovincial migration to BC is projected to be slower than expected in the short term
Page 6 of 6
