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Paul Nitschke, NEFSC & Jamie Cournane, PhD, PDT Chair

SSC Meeting October 13-14, 2015 1

Individual Stock Presentation 19 Groundfish Stocks

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Overview • Introduction summary table and PDT memo (does not include all sources of uncertainty or all reviewer comments). • Status table (short report 2nd table) • Biomass (mt) and exploitation plots (short report). • PDT catch performance plots for individual stocks. • OFL and ABC tables at 75%FMSY and lowest 75%FMSY catch (2016-2018) held constant. • No FRebuild projections or OFLs estimates from sensitivity runs (PDT can take new OFL requests).

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Individual Stock Details:

Catch Plots (Catch History, ABCs, Projections) • • • • •

CY 2005- CY 2014 total catch Historical FY ABCs (ABCs on the books) PDT CY2015 catch assumption FMSY and 75%FMSY projected catch Assessment overfishing history: “Yes” , “No”, “unknown” whether overfishing was occurring in terminal year of assessment

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Southern Windowpane MODEL STOCK STATUS REBUILDING

AIM Not Overfished & Overfishing is not occurring Rebuilt

RETROSPECTIVE ADJUSTMENT

NA

UNCERTAINTIES

Data limited assessment

REVIEWER COMMENTS

General category scallop discards should be added to the assessment.

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Southern Windowpane

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Southern Windowpane

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Southern Windowpane

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Southern Windowpane OFL = FMSY x kg/tow Constant ABC = 75%FMSY x kg/tow Constant year 2016 2017 2018

OFL 833 833 833

ABC 623 623 623

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Northern Windowpane MODEL STOCK STATUS REBUILDING

AIM Overfished & Overfishing is not occurring 2017 (No Projection)

RETROSPECTIVE ADJUSTMENT

NA

UNCERTAINTIES

Data limited assessment

REVIEWER COMMENTS

General category scallop discards should be added to the assessment.

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Northern Windowpane

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Northern Windowpane

12

Northern Windowpane

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Northern Windowpane OFL = FMSY x kg/tow Constant ABC = 75%FMSY x kg/tow Constant year 2016 2017 2018

OFL 243 243 243

ABC 182 182 182

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Halibut MODEL STOCK STATUS REBUILDING

NA (Replacement Yield Model Rejected) Overfished & Overfishing is unknown 2056 (No Projection)

RETROSPECTIVE ADJUSTMENT

NA

UNCERTAINTIES

Data limited assessment, stock structure

REVIEWER COMMENTS

Low catchability in NEFSC surveys

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Halibut

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Halibut

Fall

Spring

Maine/ New Hampshire Trawl Survey

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Halibut

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Halibut Maine DMR

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Halibut

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Halibut Constant OFL = 2015 OFL(198 mt) + 6% for 5y Constant ABC = 75% of the OFL year 2016 2017 2018

OFL 210 210 210

ABC 158 158 158

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Cape Cod/Gulf of Maine Yellowtail MODEL STOCK STATUS REBUILDING

VPA Overfished & Overfishing is occurring On schedule (2023)

RETROSPECTIVE ADJUSTMENT

yes

UNCERTAINTIES

retrospective pattern

REVIEWER COMMENTS

The assumed M (0.2) is inconsistent with the recently revised assumptions for other yellowtail stocks

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Cape Cod/Gulf of Maine Yellowtail

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Cape Cod/Gulf of Maine Yellowtail

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Cape Cod/Gulf of Maine Yellowtail

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Cape Cod/Gulf of Maine Yellowtail

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Cape Cod/Gulf of Maine Yellowtail 75%FMSY Projection year 2016 2017 2018

OFL 555 707 874

ABC 427 547 672

F 0.21 0.21 0.21

SSB 2,483 3,026 3,820

75%FMSY First Year Constant Projection year 2016 2017 2018

OFL 555 707 900

ABC 427 427 427

F 0.21 0.161 0.125

SSB 2,485 3,074 4,053

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Southern New England/Mid-Atlantic Yellowtail Flounder MODEL STOCK STATUS REBUILDING

ASAP Overfished & Overfishing is occurring Was rebuilt in 2011 with low recruitment scenario. May need a new plan.

RETROSPECTIVE ADJUSTMENT

Not accepted by reviewers

UNCERTAINTIES

Major retrospective pattern

REVIEWER COMMENTS

67% of the projected realizations were not feasible, because they could not support the preliminary estimate of 2015 catch

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Southern New England/Mid-Atlantic Yellowtail Flounder

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Southern New England/Mid-Atlantic Yellowtail Flounder

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Southern New England/Mid-Atlantic Yellowtail Flounder

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Southern New England/Mid-Atlantic Yellowtail Flounder

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Southern New England/Mid-Atlantic Yellowtail Flounder 2015 catch = 478 mt 75%Fmsy Projection year 2016 2017 2018

OFL 130 170 249

ABC 101 131 191

F 0.262 0.262 0.262

SSB 490 682 1127

2015 catch = 478 mt First Year Constant Projection year 2016 2017 2018

OFL 130 170 256

ABC 101 101 101

F 0.263 0.197 0.129

SSB 491 700 1192

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Southern New England/Mid-Atlantic Yellowtail Flounder Projections with updated bridge year catch estimate of 422mt

2015 catch = 422 mt 75%Fmsy Projection year 2016 2017 2018

OFL 144 180 256

ABC 111 139 196

F 0.262 0.262 0.262

SSB 534 714 1148

2015 catch = 422 mt First Year Constant Projection year 2016 2017 2018

OFL 144 180 262

ABC 111 111 111

F 0.261 0.204 0.138

SSB 535 732 1210

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Wolffish MODEL STOCK STATUS REBUILDING

SCALE Overfished & Overfishing is not occurring Undefined

RETROSPECTIVE ADJUSTMENT

No (Model uncertainty estimates not available)

UNCERTAINTIES

Ocean Pout Bigelow conversion, discard mortality rate (8%) , retrospective pattern, maturation, selectivity

REVIEWER COMMENTS

There is no indication in the data that recruitment has increased recently.

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Wolffish

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Wolffish

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Wolffish

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Wolffish

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Wolffish OFL = FMSY x Exploitable Biomass Constant ABC = 75%FMSY x Exploitable Biomass Constant year 2016 2017 2018

OFL 110 110 110

ABC 82 82 82

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Ocean Pout MODEL STOCK STATUS REBUILDING

Indexed Based Overfished & Overfishing is not occurring Did not rebuild by 2014

RETROSPECTIVE ADJUSTMENT

NA

UNCERTAINTIES

Data limited assessment

REVIEWER COMMENTS

The stock has not responded to low catch as expected.

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Ocean Pout

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Ocean Pout

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Ocean Pout

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Ocean Pout OFL = FMSY x kg/tow Constant ABC = 75%FMSY x kg/tow Constant year 2016 2017 2018

OFL 220 220 220

ABC 165 165 165

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Georges Bank Cod MODEL STOCK STATUS REBUILDING

NA (ASAP model Rejected) Overfished & Overfishing is Unknown 2026 (no projection)

RETROSPECTIVE ADJUSTMENT

NA

UNCERTAINTIES

No analytical assessment

REVIEWER COMMENTS

Status quo catch may not be appropriate for the current stock status and survey trends.

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Georges Bank Cod

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Georges Bank Cod OFL = 1665 mt Reduction in average catch using recent survey trend (-24% per year) Constant Three Years ABC = 75% of OFL year 2016 2017 2018

OFL 1,665 1,665 1,665

ABC 1,249 1,249 1,249

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Georges Bank Cod

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Georges Bank Haddock MODEL STOCK STATUS REBUILDING

VPA Not Overfished & Overfishing is not occurring Rebuilt

RETROSPECTIVE ADJUSTMENT

Yes

UNCERTAINTIES

Uncertainty with 2013 year class

REVIEWER COMMENTS

The 2013 year class is not well estimated. Based on recent observations from dominant year classes in the fishery and surveys, density dependent growth should be expected.

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Georges Bank Haddock

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Georges Bank Haddock

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Georges Bank Haddock

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Georges Bank Haddock

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Georges Bank Haddock

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Georges Bank Haddock 75%FMSY Projection year 2016 2017 2018

OFL 160,385 249,732 316,320

ABC 123,000 192,075 246,848

F 0.293 0.293 0.293

SSB 1,180,381 1,276,959 1,058,276

75%FMSY First Year Constant Projection year 2016 2017 2018

OFL 160,385 249,732 334,494

ABC 123,000 123,000 123,000

F 0.293 0.182 0.129

SSB 1,180,009 1,295,329 1,158,787

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Gulf of Maine Haddock MODEL STOCK STATUS REBUILDING

ASAP Not Overfished & Overfishing is not occurring Rebuilt

RETROSPECTIVE ADJUSTMENT

No

UNCERTAINTIES

Uncertainty with large 2012 and 2013 year class. Possible changes in selectivity with year class effects.

REVIEWER COMMENTS

Although density-dependent growth has not been observed for this stock, there have been strong density-dependent effects for haddock in other areas from dominant year classes.

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Gulf of Maine Haddock

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Gulf of Maine Haddock

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Gulf of Maine Haddock

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Gulf of Maine Haddock

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Gulf of Maine Haddock 75%FMSY Projection year 2016 2017 2018

OFL 4,717 5,873 6,218

ABC 3,630 4,534 4,815

F 0.351 0.351 0.351

SSB 25,635 25,915 22,532

75%FMSY First Year Constant Projection year 2016 2017 2018

OFL 4,717 5,873 6,454

ABC 3,630 3,630 3,630

F 0.351 0.276 0.246

SSB 25,647 26,174 23,686

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Gulf of Maine Cod MODEL STOCK STATUS REBUILDING

ASAP Overfished & Overfishing is occurring 2024 (possible when F=0 for some scenarios)

RETROSPECTIVE No (M=0.2 model has a retrospective pattern) ADJUSTMENT It is unclear as to which level of natural mortality (M=0.2 or UNCERTAINTIES 0.4) to assume for the short-term projections under the Mramp model. Major sources of uncertainty include the natural mortality assumption and retrospective error in the updated M=0.2 REVIEWER model. COMMENTS

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Gulf of Maine Cod M=0.2 model

M=0.2 model

M-ramp model

M-ramp model

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Gulf of Maine Cod M=0.2 model

M-ramp model

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Gulf of Maine Cod

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Gulf of Maine Cod

M=0.2 model

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Gulf of Maine Cod

M=0.2 model

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Gulf of Maine Cod

Harvest strategy

Year 2014

2016 2017

Input Model result Assumed catch Projection Projection

2018

Projection

1,211

7,601

0.185

773

4,854

0.185

2014

1,471

2,225

0.956

1,471

1,443

1.390

279

3,045

0.111

279

1,961

0.174

2016

Model result Assumed catch Projection

533

4,435

0.139

335

2,800

0.139

2017 2018

Projection Projection

738 974

6,048 8,015

0.139 0.139

468 621

3,848 5,113

0.139 0.139

2015 FMSY

2015 75% FMSY

No retro adjustment Catch Spawning (mt) stock biomass (mt) 1,471 2,225

M=0.2 model Retrospective adjustment Catch Spawning Ffull Ffull (mt) stock biomass (mt) 0.956 1,471 1,443 1.390

279

3,045

0.111

279

1,961

0.174

697 939

4,400 5,852

0.185 0.185

438 596

2,777 3,723

0.185 0.185

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Gulf of Maine Cod M=0.2 Catch (mt) Harvest strategy

Year 2014

279

Ffull

1,471

3,219

0.112

279

3,057

0.123

748 1,085

4,950 7,062

0.187 0.187

555 662

3,841 4,536

0.187 0.187

2016 2017 2018

Projection

1,507

9,674

0.187

765

5,220

0.187

2014

1,471

2,536

0.932

1,471

2,536

0.932

279

3,219

0.112

279

3,057

0.123

2016

Model result Assumed catch Projection

570

4,988

0.140

423

3,871

0.140

2017 2018

Projection Projection

847 1,201

7,278 10,141

0.140 0.140

517 609

4,672 5,464

0.140 0.140

2015 75% FMSY

0.932

Spawning stock biomass (mt) 2,536

Input Model result Assumed catch Projection Projection

2015 FMSY

1,471

Spawning stock biomass (mt) 2,536

M-ramp model M=0.4 Ffull Catch (mt)

0.932

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Gulf of Maine Cod OFL = Average (m=0.2 model at FMSY in 2016, M-ramp model M=0.2 at FMSY in 2016 and M-ramp model M=0.4 at FMSY in 2016) Constant ABC = 75% of OFL Year 2016

OFL 667

75% of the OFL 500

2017

667

500

2018

667

500

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American Plaice MODEL STOCK STATUS REBUILDING

VPA Not Overfished & Overfishing is not occurring 2024 (on schedule)

RETROSPECTIVE ADJUSTMENT

yes

UNCERTAINTIES

Reductions in mean weights at age.

REVIEWER COMMENTS

A major source of uncertainty is the retrospective pattern.

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American Plaice

73

American Plaice

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American Plaice

75

American Plaice

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American Plaice 75%FMSY Projection year 2016 2017 2018

OFL 1,695 1,748 1,840

ABC 1,297 1,336 1,404

F 0.147 0.147 0.147

SSB 8,743 8,740 9,417

75%FMSY First Year Constant Projection year 2016 2017 2018

OFL 1,695 1,748 1,846

ABC 1,297 1,297 1,297

F 0.147 0.142 0.134

SSB 8,740 8,752 9,484

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Witch Flounder MODEL STOCK STATUS REBUILDING

VPA Overfished & Overfishing is occurring 2017 (Cannot rebuild)

RETROSPECTIVE ADJUSTMENT

Yes

UNCERTAINTIES

A major source of uncertainty is the retrospective pattern.

REVIEWER COMMENTS

Compared to the 2012 assessment, the magnitude of the retrospective pattern has increased slightly for F and decreased slightly for SSB.

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Witch Flounder

79

Witch Flounder

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Witch Flounder

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Witch Flounder

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Witch Flounder 75%FMSY Projection year 2016 2017 2018

OFL 513 925 938

ABC 394 567 719

F 0.209 0.209 0.209

SSB 3,220 4,278 5,441

75%FMSY First Year Constant Projection year 2016 2017 2018

OFL 513 925 974

ABC 394 394 394

F 0.209 0.142 0.106

SSB 3.220 4,310 5,662

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White Hake MODEL STOCK STATUS REBUILDING RETROSPECTIVE ADJUSTMENT

ASAP Not Overfished & Overfishing is not occurring 2014 (Did not rebuild, SSB2014/SSBmsy = 88%) No

Pool age length key, species mis-id, recent addition of an extralarge market category, survey residuals at the end of the time UNCERTAINTIES series

REVIEWER COMMENTS

The magnitude of the SSB retrospective pattern was less than but near the upper bound of the confidence interval and is a source of uncertainty. The previous assessment over estimated abundance of ages 2-5, which do not contribute much to the estimate of SSB. Therefore, previous projections were overly optimistic. 84

White Hake

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White Hake

86

White Hake

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White Hake

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White Hake 75%FMSY Projection year 2016 2017 2018

OFL 4,985 4,816 4,733

ABC 3,816 3,686 3,622

F 0.141 0.141 0.141

SSB 29,619 28,711 28,355

75%FMSY Last Year Constant Projection year 2016 2017 2018

OFL 4,985 4,847 4,775

ABC 3,622 3,622 3,622

F 0.133 0.137 0.14

SSB 29,672 28,911 28,608

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Redfish MODEL STOCK STATUS REBUILDING

ASAP Not Overfished & Overfishing is not occurring Rebuilt

RETROSPECTIVE ADJUSTMENT

Yes

UNCERTAINTIES

Survey residual pattern at the end of the time series, Dimorphic growth

REVIEWER COMMENTS

Major sources of uncertainty are the retrospective pattern, lack of age samples from the commercial fishery, historical discard estimates and model inconsistencies.

90

Redfish

91

Redfish

92

Redfish

93

Redfish

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Redfish 75%FMSY Projection year 2016 2017 2018

OFL 13,723 14,665 15,260

ABC 10,338 11,050 11,501

F 0.028 0.028 0.028

SSB 368,571 387,014 401,143

75%FMSY First Year Constant Projection year 2016 2017 2018

OFL 13,723 14,665 15,286

ABC 10,338 10,338 10,338

F 0.028 0.026 0.025

SSB 368,574 387,285 402,292

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Georges Bank Winter Flounder MODEL STOCK STATUS REBUILDING

VPA Overfished & Overfishing is occurring 2017 (Cannot rebuild)

RETROSPECTIVE ADJUSTMENT

yes

UNCERTAINTIES

Natural mortality, lack of discards from Canadian trawl fishery, lack of age data from DFO survey

REVIEWER COMMENTS

The major source of uncertainty is the retrospective pattern.

96

Georges Bank Winter Flounder

97

Georges Bank Winter Flounder

98

Georges Bank Winter Flounder

99

Georges Bank Winter Flounder

100

Georges Bank Winter Flounder 75%FMSY Projection year 2016 2017 2018

OFL 957 1,056 1,431

ABC 755 830 1,110

F 0.402 0.402 0.402

SSB 2,295 2,595 3,581

75%FMSY First Year Constant Projection year 2016 2017 2018

OFL 957 1,056 1,459

ABC 755 755 755

F 0.402 0.36 0.252

SSB 2,293 2,617 3,786

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Gulf of Maine Winter Flounder MODEL STOCK STATUS REBUILDING

Survey Area-swept Biomass Overfished Unknown & Overfishing is not occurring Unknown

RETROSPECTIVE ADJUSTMENT

NA

UNCERTAINTIES

Q assumption, no analytical model, lack of response to low exploitation, not analytical model

REVIEWER COMMENTS

Biomass-based reference points cannot be determined

102

Gulf of Maine Winter Flounder

103

Gulf of Maine Winter Flounder

104

GOM Winter Flounder

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Gulf of Maine Winter Flounder

90% confidence intervals are shown for biomass and exploitation rate 106

Gulf of Maine Winter Flounder OFL = 1080 mt Update 2015 Fall 2014

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Gulf of Maine Winter Flounder

108

Gulf of Maine Winter Flounder OFL = FMSY x 30+ cm Biomass Constant ABC = 75%FMSY x 30+ cm Biomass Constant year 2016 2017 2018

OFL 1,080 1,080 1,080

ABC 810 810 810

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Southern New England/Mid-Atlantic Winter Flounder MODEL

ASAP

STOCK STATUS

Overfished & Overfishing is not occurring

REBUILDING

2023 (Rebuilds at 40% probability with F=0)

RETROSPECTIVE ADJUSTMENT

No

UNCERTAINTIES

Recruitment continues to decline, natural mortality

REVIEWER COMMENTS

Change in productivity and poor fit to some survey data.

110

Southern New England/Mid-Atlantic Winter Flounder

111

Southern New England/Mid-Atlantic Winter Flounder

112

Southern New England/Mid-Atlantic Winter Flounder

113

SNE Winter Flounder

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Southern New England/Mid-Atlantic Winter Flounder 75%FMSY Projection

year 2016 2017 2018

OFL 1,041 1,017 1,584

ABC 802 780 1,216

F 0.244 0.244 0.244

SSB 4,782 4,020 4,980

75%FMSY Second Year Constant Projection year 2016 2017 2018

OFL 1,041 1,021 1,587

ABC 780 780 780

F 0.237 0.243 0.152

SSB 4,786 4,041 5,065

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Pollock MODEL STOCK STATUS REBUILDING

ASAP Not Overfished & Overfishing is not occurring Rebuilt

RETROSPECTIVE ADJUSTMENT

Yes

UNCERTAINTIES

Dome selectivity assumption in both surveys and the fishery, Retrospective pattern

REVIEWER COMMENTS

Cryptic Biomass

116

Pollock Dome

Dome

Flat

Flat

117

Pollock Dome

Flat

118

Pollock

119

Pollock

120

Pollock 75%FMSY Projection year 2016 2017 2018

OFL 27,668 32,004 33,966

ABC 21,312 24,731 26,252

F 0.307 0.307 0.307

SSB 178,534 182,067 180,603

75%FMSY First Year Constant Projection year 2016 2017 2018

OFL 27,668 32,004 34,745

ABC 21,312 21,312 21,312

F 0.307 0.261 0.0238

SSB 178,534 181,807 184,116

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The End

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