Paul Nitschke, NEFSC & Jamie Cournane, PhD, PDT Chair
SSC Meeting October 13-14, 2015 1
Individual Stock Presentation 19 Groundfish Stocks
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Overview • Introduction summary table and PDT memo (does not include all sources of uncertainty or all reviewer comments). • Status table (short report 2nd table) • Biomass (mt) and exploitation plots (short report). • PDT catch performance plots for individual stocks. • OFL and ABC tables at 75%FMSY and lowest 75%FMSY catch (2016-2018) held constant. • No FRebuild projections or OFLs estimates from sensitivity runs (PDT can take new OFL requests).
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Individual Stock Details:
Catch Plots (Catch History, ABCs, Projections) • • • • •
CY 2005- CY 2014 total catch Historical FY ABCs (ABCs on the books) PDT CY2015 catch assumption FMSY and 75%FMSY projected catch Assessment overfishing history: “Yes” , “No”, “unknown” whether overfishing was occurring in terminal year of assessment
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Southern Windowpane MODEL STOCK STATUS REBUILDING
AIM Not Overfished & Overfishing is not occurring Rebuilt
RETROSPECTIVE ADJUSTMENT
NA
UNCERTAINTIES
Data limited assessment
REVIEWER COMMENTS
General category scallop discards should be added to the assessment.
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Southern Windowpane
6
Southern Windowpane
7
Southern Windowpane
8
Southern Windowpane OFL = FMSY x kg/tow Constant ABC = 75%FMSY x kg/tow Constant year 2016 2017 2018
OFL 833 833 833
ABC 623 623 623
9
Northern Windowpane MODEL STOCK STATUS REBUILDING
AIM Overfished & Overfishing is not occurring 2017 (No Projection)
RETROSPECTIVE ADJUSTMENT
NA
UNCERTAINTIES
Data limited assessment
REVIEWER COMMENTS
General category scallop discards should be added to the assessment.
10
Northern Windowpane
11
Northern Windowpane
12
Northern Windowpane
13
Northern Windowpane OFL = FMSY x kg/tow Constant ABC = 75%FMSY x kg/tow Constant year 2016 2017 2018
OFL 243 243 243
ABC 182 182 182
14
Halibut MODEL STOCK STATUS REBUILDING
NA (Replacement Yield Model Rejected) Overfished & Overfishing is unknown 2056 (No Projection)
RETROSPECTIVE ADJUSTMENT
NA
UNCERTAINTIES
Data limited assessment, stock structure
REVIEWER COMMENTS
Low catchability in NEFSC surveys
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Halibut
16
Halibut
Fall
Spring
Maine/ New Hampshire Trawl Survey
17
Halibut
18
Halibut Maine DMR
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Halibut
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Halibut Constant OFL = 2015 OFL(198 mt) + 6% for 5y Constant ABC = 75% of the OFL year 2016 2017 2018
OFL 210 210 210
ABC 158 158 158
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Cape Cod/Gulf of Maine Yellowtail MODEL STOCK STATUS REBUILDING
VPA Overfished & Overfishing is occurring On schedule (2023)
RETROSPECTIVE ADJUSTMENT
yes
UNCERTAINTIES
retrospective pattern
REVIEWER COMMENTS
The assumed M (0.2) is inconsistent with the recently revised assumptions for other yellowtail stocks
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Cape Cod/Gulf of Maine Yellowtail
23
Cape Cod/Gulf of Maine Yellowtail
24
Cape Cod/Gulf of Maine Yellowtail
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Cape Cod/Gulf of Maine Yellowtail
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Cape Cod/Gulf of Maine Yellowtail 75%FMSY Projection year 2016 2017 2018
OFL 555 707 874
ABC 427 547 672
F 0.21 0.21 0.21
SSB 2,483 3,026 3,820
75%FMSY First Year Constant Projection year 2016 2017 2018
OFL 555 707 900
ABC 427 427 427
F 0.21 0.161 0.125
SSB 2,485 3,074 4,053
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Southern New England/Mid-Atlantic Yellowtail Flounder MODEL STOCK STATUS REBUILDING
ASAP Overfished & Overfishing is occurring Was rebuilt in 2011 with low recruitment scenario. May need a new plan.
RETROSPECTIVE ADJUSTMENT
Not accepted by reviewers
UNCERTAINTIES
Major retrospective pattern
REVIEWER COMMENTS
67% of the projected realizations were not feasible, because they could not support the preliminary estimate of 2015 catch
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Southern New England/Mid-Atlantic Yellowtail Flounder
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Southern New England/Mid-Atlantic Yellowtail Flounder
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Southern New England/Mid-Atlantic Yellowtail Flounder
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Southern New England/Mid-Atlantic Yellowtail Flounder
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Southern New England/Mid-Atlantic Yellowtail Flounder 2015 catch = 478 mt 75%Fmsy Projection year 2016 2017 2018
OFL 130 170 249
ABC 101 131 191
F 0.262 0.262 0.262
SSB 490 682 1127
2015 catch = 478 mt First Year Constant Projection year 2016 2017 2018
OFL 130 170 256
ABC 101 101 101
F 0.263 0.197 0.129
SSB 491 700 1192
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Southern New England/Mid-Atlantic Yellowtail Flounder Projections with updated bridge year catch estimate of 422mt
2015 catch = 422 mt 75%Fmsy Projection year 2016 2017 2018
OFL 144 180 256
ABC 111 139 196
F 0.262 0.262 0.262
SSB 534 714 1148
2015 catch = 422 mt First Year Constant Projection year 2016 2017 2018
OFL 144 180 262
ABC 111 111 111
F 0.261 0.204 0.138
SSB 535 732 1210
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Wolffish MODEL STOCK STATUS REBUILDING
SCALE Overfished & Overfishing is not occurring Undefined
RETROSPECTIVE ADJUSTMENT
No (Model uncertainty estimates not available)
UNCERTAINTIES
Ocean Pout Bigelow conversion, discard mortality rate (8%) , retrospective pattern, maturation, selectivity
REVIEWER COMMENTS
There is no indication in the data that recruitment has increased recently.
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Wolffish
36
Wolffish
37
Wolffish
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Wolffish
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Wolffish OFL = FMSY x Exploitable Biomass Constant ABC = 75%FMSY x Exploitable Biomass Constant year 2016 2017 2018
OFL 110 110 110
ABC 82 82 82
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Ocean Pout MODEL STOCK STATUS REBUILDING
Indexed Based Overfished & Overfishing is not occurring Did not rebuild by 2014
RETROSPECTIVE ADJUSTMENT
NA
UNCERTAINTIES
Data limited assessment
REVIEWER COMMENTS
The stock has not responded to low catch as expected.
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Ocean Pout
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Ocean Pout
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Ocean Pout
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Ocean Pout OFL = FMSY x kg/tow Constant ABC = 75%FMSY x kg/tow Constant year 2016 2017 2018
OFL 220 220 220
ABC 165 165 165
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Georges Bank Cod MODEL STOCK STATUS REBUILDING
NA (ASAP model Rejected) Overfished & Overfishing is Unknown 2026 (no projection)
RETROSPECTIVE ADJUSTMENT
NA
UNCERTAINTIES
No analytical assessment
REVIEWER COMMENTS
Status quo catch may not be appropriate for the current stock status and survey trends.
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Georges Bank Cod
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Georges Bank Cod OFL = 1665 mt Reduction in average catch using recent survey trend (-24% per year) Constant Three Years ABC = 75% of OFL year 2016 2017 2018
OFL 1,665 1,665 1,665
ABC 1,249 1,249 1,249
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Georges Bank Cod
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Georges Bank Haddock MODEL STOCK STATUS REBUILDING
VPA Not Overfished & Overfishing is not occurring Rebuilt
RETROSPECTIVE ADJUSTMENT
Yes
UNCERTAINTIES
Uncertainty with 2013 year class
REVIEWER COMMENTS
The 2013 year class is not well estimated. Based on recent observations from dominant year classes in the fishery and surveys, density dependent growth should be expected.
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Georges Bank Haddock
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Georges Bank Haddock
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Georges Bank Haddock
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Georges Bank Haddock
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Georges Bank Haddock
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Georges Bank Haddock 75%FMSY Projection year 2016 2017 2018
OFL 160,385 249,732 316,320
ABC 123,000 192,075 246,848
F 0.293 0.293 0.293
SSB 1,180,381 1,276,959 1,058,276
75%FMSY First Year Constant Projection year 2016 2017 2018
OFL 160,385 249,732 334,494
ABC 123,000 123,000 123,000
F 0.293 0.182 0.129
SSB 1,180,009 1,295,329 1,158,787
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Gulf of Maine Haddock MODEL STOCK STATUS REBUILDING
ASAP Not Overfished & Overfishing is not occurring Rebuilt
RETROSPECTIVE ADJUSTMENT
No
UNCERTAINTIES
Uncertainty with large 2012 and 2013 year class. Possible changes in selectivity with year class effects.
REVIEWER COMMENTS
Although density-dependent growth has not been observed for this stock, there have been strong density-dependent effects for haddock in other areas from dominant year classes.
57
Gulf of Maine Haddock
58
Gulf of Maine Haddock
59
Gulf of Maine Haddock
60
Gulf of Maine Haddock
61
Gulf of Maine Haddock 75%FMSY Projection year 2016 2017 2018
OFL 4,717 5,873 6,218
ABC 3,630 4,534 4,815
F 0.351 0.351 0.351
SSB 25,635 25,915 22,532
75%FMSY First Year Constant Projection year 2016 2017 2018
OFL 4,717 5,873 6,454
ABC 3,630 3,630 3,630
F 0.351 0.276 0.246
SSB 25,647 26,174 23,686
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Gulf of Maine Cod MODEL STOCK STATUS REBUILDING
ASAP Overfished & Overfishing is occurring 2024 (possible when F=0 for some scenarios)
RETROSPECTIVE No (M=0.2 model has a retrospective pattern) ADJUSTMENT It is unclear as to which level of natural mortality (M=0.2 or UNCERTAINTIES 0.4) to assume for the short-term projections under the Mramp model. Major sources of uncertainty include the natural mortality assumption and retrospective error in the updated M=0.2 REVIEWER model. COMMENTS
63
Gulf of Maine Cod M=0.2 model
M=0.2 model
M-ramp model
M-ramp model
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Gulf of Maine Cod M=0.2 model
M-ramp model
65
Gulf of Maine Cod
66
Gulf of Maine Cod
M=0.2 model
67
Gulf of Maine Cod
M=0.2 model
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Gulf of Maine Cod
Harvest strategy
Year 2014
2016 2017
Input Model result Assumed catch Projection Projection
2018
Projection
1,211
7,601
0.185
773
4,854
0.185
2014
1,471
2,225
0.956
1,471
1,443
1.390
279
3,045
0.111
279
1,961
0.174
2016
Model result Assumed catch Projection
533
4,435
0.139
335
2,800
0.139
2017 2018
Projection Projection
738 974
6,048 8,015
0.139 0.139
468 621
3,848 5,113
0.139 0.139
2015 FMSY
2015 75% FMSY
No retro adjustment Catch Spawning (mt) stock biomass (mt) 1,471 2,225
M=0.2 model Retrospective adjustment Catch Spawning Ffull Ffull (mt) stock biomass (mt) 0.956 1,471 1,443 1.390
279
3,045
0.111
279
1,961
0.174
697 939
4,400 5,852
0.185 0.185
438 596
2,777 3,723
0.185 0.185
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Gulf of Maine Cod M=0.2 Catch (mt) Harvest strategy
Year 2014
279
Ffull
1,471
3,219
0.112
279
3,057
0.123
748 1,085
4,950 7,062
0.187 0.187
555 662
3,841 4,536
0.187 0.187
2016 2017 2018
Projection
1,507
9,674
0.187
765
5,220
0.187
2014
1,471
2,536
0.932
1,471
2,536
0.932
279
3,219
0.112
279
3,057
0.123
2016
Model result Assumed catch Projection
570
4,988
0.140
423
3,871
0.140
2017 2018
Projection Projection
847 1,201
7,278 10,141
0.140 0.140
517 609
4,672 5,464
0.140 0.140
2015 75% FMSY
0.932
Spawning stock biomass (mt) 2,536
Input Model result Assumed catch Projection Projection
2015 FMSY
1,471
Spawning stock biomass (mt) 2,536
M-ramp model M=0.4 Ffull Catch (mt)
0.932
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Gulf of Maine Cod OFL = Average (m=0.2 model at FMSY in 2016, M-ramp model M=0.2 at FMSY in 2016 and M-ramp model M=0.4 at FMSY in 2016) Constant ABC = 75% of OFL Year 2016
OFL 667
75% of the OFL 500
2017
667
500
2018
667
500
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American Plaice MODEL STOCK STATUS REBUILDING
VPA Not Overfished & Overfishing is not occurring 2024 (on schedule)
RETROSPECTIVE ADJUSTMENT
yes
UNCERTAINTIES
Reductions in mean weights at age.
REVIEWER COMMENTS
A major source of uncertainty is the retrospective pattern.
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American Plaice
73
American Plaice
74
American Plaice
75
American Plaice
76
American Plaice 75%FMSY Projection year 2016 2017 2018
OFL 1,695 1,748 1,840
ABC 1,297 1,336 1,404
F 0.147 0.147 0.147
SSB 8,743 8,740 9,417
75%FMSY First Year Constant Projection year 2016 2017 2018
OFL 1,695 1,748 1,846
ABC 1,297 1,297 1,297
F 0.147 0.142 0.134
SSB 8,740 8,752 9,484
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Witch Flounder MODEL STOCK STATUS REBUILDING
VPA Overfished & Overfishing is occurring 2017 (Cannot rebuild)
RETROSPECTIVE ADJUSTMENT
Yes
UNCERTAINTIES
A major source of uncertainty is the retrospective pattern.
REVIEWER COMMENTS
Compared to the 2012 assessment, the magnitude of the retrospective pattern has increased slightly for F and decreased slightly for SSB.
78
Witch Flounder
79
Witch Flounder
80
Witch Flounder
81
Witch Flounder
82
Witch Flounder 75%FMSY Projection year 2016 2017 2018
OFL 513 925 938
ABC 394 567 719
F 0.209 0.209 0.209
SSB 3,220 4,278 5,441
75%FMSY First Year Constant Projection year 2016 2017 2018
OFL 513 925 974
ABC 394 394 394
F 0.209 0.142 0.106
SSB 3.220 4,310 5,662
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White Hake MODEL STOCK STATUS REBUILDING RETROSPECTIVE ADJUSTMENT
ASAP Not Overfished & Overfishing is not occurring 2014 (Did not rebuild, SSB2014/SSBmsy = 88%) No
Pool age length key, species mis-id, recent addition of an extralarge market category, survey residuals at the end of the time UNCERTAINTIES series
REVIEWER COMMENTS
The magnitude of the SSB retrospective pattern was less than but near the upper bound of the confidence interval and is a source of uncertainty. The previous assessment over estimated abundance of ages 2-5, which do not contribute much to the estimate of SSB. Therefore, previous projections were overly optimistic. 84
White Hake
85
White Hake
86
White Hake
87
White Hake
88
White Hake 75%FMSY Projection year 2016 2017 2018
OFL 4,985 4,816 4,733
ABC 3,816 3,686 3,622
F 0.141 0.141 0.141
SSB 29,619 28,711 28,355
75%FMSY Last Year Constant Projection year 2016 2017 2018
OFL 4,985 4,847 4,775
ABC 3,622 3,622 3,622
F 0.133 0.137 0.14
SSB 29,672 28,911 28,608
89
Redfish MODEL STOCK STATUS REBUILDING
ASAP Not Overfished & Overfishing is not occurring Rebuilt
RETROSPECTIVE ADJUSTMENT
Yes
UNCERTAINTIES
Survey residual pattern at the end of the time series, Dimorphic growth
REVIEWER COMMENTS
Major sources of uncertainty are the retrospective pattern, lack of age samples from the commercial fishery, historical discard estimates and model inconsistencies.
90
Redfish
91
Redfish
92
Redfish
93
Redfish
94
Redfish 75%FMSY Projection year 2016 2017 2018
OFL 13,723 14,665 15,260
ABC 10,338 11,050 11,501
F 0.028 0.028 0.028
SSB 368,571 387,014 401,143
75%FMSY First Year Constant Projection year 2016 2017 2018
OFL 13,723 14,665 15,286
ABC 10,338 10,338 10,338
F 0.028 0.026 0.025
SSB 368,574 387,285 402,292
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Georges Bank Winter Flounder MODEL STOCK STATUS REBUILDING
VPA Overfished & Overfishing is occurring 2017 (Cannot rebuild)
RETROSPECTIVE ADJUSTMENT
yes
UNCERTAINTIES
Natural mortality, lack of discards from Canadian trawl fishery, lack of age data from DFO survey
REVIEWER COMMENTS
The major source of uncertainty is the retrospective pattern.
96
Georges Bank Winter Flounder
97
Georges Bank Winter Flounder
98
Georges Bank Winter Flounder
99
Georges Bank Winter Flounder
100
Georges Bank Winter Flounder 75%FMSY Projection year 2016 2017 2018
OFL 957 1,056 1,431
ABC 755 830 1,110
F 0.402 0.402 0.402
SSB 2,295 2,595 3,581
75%FMSY First Year Constant Projection year 2016 2017 2018
OFL 957 1,056 1,459
ABC 755 755 755
F 0.402 0.36 0.252
SSB 2,293 2,617 3,786
101
Gulf of Maine Winter Flounder MODEL STOCK STATUS REBUILDING
Survey Area-swept Biomass Overfished Unknown & Overfishing is not occurring Unknown
RETROSPECTIVE ADJUSTMENT
NA
UNCERTAINTIES
Q assumption, no analytical model, lack of response to low exploitation, not analytical model
REVIEWER COMMENTS
Biomass-based reference points cannot be determined
102
Gulf of Maine Winter Flounder
103
Gulf of Maine Winter Flounder
104
GOM Winter Flounder
105
Gulf of Maine Winter Flounder
90% confidence intervals are shown for biomass and exploitation rate 106
Gulf of Maine Winter Flounder OFL = 1080 mt Update 2015 Fall 2014
107
Gulf of Maine Winter Flounder
108
Gulf of Maine Winter Flounder OFL = FMSY x 30+ cm Biomass Constant ABC = 75%FMSY x 30+ cm Biomass Constant year 2016 2017 2018
OFL 1,080 1,080 1,080
ABC 810 810 810
109
Southern New England/Mid-Atlantic Winter Flounder MODEL
ASAP
STOCK STATUS
Overfished & Overfishing is not occurring
REBUILDING
2023 (Rebuilds at 40% probability with F=0)
RETROSPECTIVE ADJUSTMENT
No
UNCERTAINTIES
Recruitment continues to decline, natural mortality
REVIEWER COMMENTS
Change in productivity and poor fit to some survey data.
110
Southern New England/Mid-Atlantic Winter Flounder
111
Southern New England/Mid-Atlantic Winter Flounder
112
Southern New England/Mid-Atlantic Winter Flounder
113
SNE Winter Flounder
114
Southern New England/Mid-Atlantic Winter Flounder 75%FMSY Projection
year 2016 2017 2018
OFL 1,041 1,017 1,584
ABC 802 780 1,216
F 0.244 0.244 0.244
SSB 4,782 4,020 4,980
75%FMSY Second Year Constant Projection year 2016 2017 2018
OFL 1,041 1,021 1,587
ABC 780 780 780
F 0.237 0.243 0.152
SSB 4,786 4,041 5,065
115
Pollock MODEL STOCK STATUS REBUILDING
ASAP Not Overfished & Overfishing is not occurring Rebuilt
RETROSPECTIVE ADJUSTMENT
Yes
UNCERTAINTIES
Dome selectivity assumption in both surveys and the fishery, Retrospective pattern
REVIEWER COMMENTS
Cryptic Biomass
116
Pollock Dome
Dome
Flat
Flat
117
Pollock Dome
Flat
118
Pollock
119
Pollock
120
Pollock 75%FMSY Projection year 2016 2017 2018
OFL 27,668 32,004 33,966
ABC 21,312 24,731 26,252
F 0.307 0.307 0.307
SSB 178,534 182,067 180,603
75%FMSY First Year Constant Projection year 2016 2017 2018
OFL 27,668 32,004 34,745
ABC 21,312 21,312 21,312
F 0.307 0.261 0.0238
SSB 178,534 181,807 184,116
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The End
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