PTT Global Chemical
PTT Global Chemical Outperform (16E TP Bt70.00)
Company Update
Close Bt49.75
Petrochemicals January 27, 2016
Earnings upgrade/ Earnings downgrade /Overview unchanged
LT prospects intact Price Performance (%)
High and healthy olefins exposure; growth cycle to continue Although the share price is being pressured by China’s economic slowdown, we maintain our Outperform rating on PTTGC (gas‐based cracker) due to the solid olefins‐chain market with the strong PE spread to continue in 2016E, the ongoing albeit narrowing competitive advantage of gas‐based crackers over naphtha‐based crackers, and PTTGC’s growth potential through new investment projects that will enlarge long‐term profit. Expected to deliver Bt4.7bn NP in 4Q15E We expect PTTGC to deliver Bt4.7bn NP in 4Q15E, better both YoY and QoQ, thanks to the solid operation line and mix of one‐off extra items. The projected hedging gain on crude inventory (~Bt2.9bn) should more than offset the expected stock loss (Bt2.1bn) despite the negative impact of the US$60mn impairment charge on its pilot bio‐plastics plant (R&D) given a lower‐than‐expected utilization rate (~at 45%) to secure qualified product. Its quarterly operation line is likely to perform well with olefins backed by a sustained high operating rate as well as higher ethane flow from PTT and solid PE spreads (still above US$700/ton), resulting in an EBITDA margin of 22% in 4Q15E. Meanwhile, its refinery and aromatics should be driven by high market GRM and widening P2F.
Source: SET Smart
FY15
FY16
Consensus EPS (Bt)
5.648
6.386
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐19.3%
10.4%
Reuters / Bloomberg
PTTGC.BK/PTTGC TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
4,508.85
Par (Bt)
10.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
224.00/6,256.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
37.00/19.81
52 week High / Low (Bt)
71.25/44.25
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
12,420.00
NVDR (%)
8.33
Estimated free float (%)
51.07
Beta
1.66
URL
www.pttgcgroup.com
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Level 5 (Extended)
Patcharin Karsemarnuntana Analyst, no 17834 [email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5837
2015E earnings fine‐tuned; 2016E earnings forecast maintained We fine‐tune our 2015E core profit by ‐7% to Bt24.4bn and NP by ‐10% to Bt20.5bn, respectively, to reflect the 4Q15E earnings estimates. Meanwhile, we maintain the 2016E NP of Bt31.8bn, with the olefins business as the main contributor driven by the sustained high 95% utilization rate (despite the 39‐day shutdown of its 1mta cracker in late 1Q16E), higher gas flow (ethane feedstock) from PTT and the continuing solid PE spreads. Map Ta Phut retrofit = higher olefins volume and feedstock flexibility The company’s Map Ta Phut retrofit seems to have a more concrete picture than other new projects, with the final investment cost to be known in late 2016E and target COD in early 2020E. This project will utilize its naphtha sold in the spot market for captive use as feedstock in its new naphtha‐based cracker, resulting in larger olefins volume, an upgrade of linked downstream product, and higher feedstock flexibility. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2013 552,881 33,140 7.35 (2.53) 3.40 52.90 2013 6.77 5.36 0.94 6.8% 14.4% 31.8%
2014 574,010 15,036 3.33 (54.63) 2.37 49.85 2014 14.92 8.79 1.00 4.8% 6.5% 30.0%
2015E 397,077 20,547 4.56 36.65 2.50 52.40 2015E 10.92 6.40 0.95 5.0% 8.9% 22.3%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 6
2016E 459,479 31,798 7.05 54.75 3.17 56.95 2016E 7.06 4.69 0.87 6.4% 12.9% 9.2%
2017E 456,552 28,074 6.22 (11.71) 2.80 60.01 2017E 7.99 4.52 0.83 5.6% 10.6% ‐0.2%
Figure 1: PTTGC’s 4Q15E earnings preview Profit and Loss (Btmn) Year‐end 31 Dec Revenue Gross profit EBITDA Interest expense Other income Income tax Forex gain (loss) Other extraordinary Items Gn (Ls) from affiliates Minority interests Net profit (loss) Core profit (loss) Reported EPS (Bt) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Net margin (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Interest‐bearing debt / equity (x) BVPS (Bt) ROE (%)
4Q14 122,744 (1,719) (957) (1,117) 1,229 923 (451) ‐ (312) (55) (4,780) (4,329) (1.06) (1.4) (0.8) (3.9) 2.2 (4.5) 0.5 49.8 (8.1)
3Q15 94,466 6,311 7,614 (1,257) (195) 216 (1,393) ‐ 485 (86) 1,207 2,600 0.27 6.7 8.1 1.3 2.5 2.7 0.5 51.0 2.1
4Q15E 90,546 9,029 9,959 (1,271) 3,092 (863) 244 (2,150) (40) (71) 4,735 6,642 1.05
% YoY (26.2) nm nm 13.8 151.5 nm nm nm (87.2) 29.1 nm nm nm
% QoQ (4.1) 43.1 30.8 1.1 nm nm nm nm nm (17.5) 292.2 155.4 288.9
10.0 11.0 5.2
2.3 4.6
0.5 52.4 16.5
2014 574,010 30,363 33,169 (5,487) 5,360 (559) 125 (2,239) 534 1,504 15,036 16,053 3.33 5.3 5.8 2.6 2.2 2.9 0.5 49.8 6.5
2015E 397,077 38,336 43,282 (5,275) 4,125 (2,078) (2,109) (1,718) 785 (171) 20,547 24,375 4.56 9.7 10.9 5.2 2.3 5.1 0.5 52.4 8.9
% YoY (30.8) 26.3 30.5 (3.9) (23.1) 271.5 nm (23.3) 47.0 nm 36.7 51.8 36.7
Source: KT ZMICO Research Figure 2: Price and spread movement ‐ olefins and polymer chain Unit: US$/ton PTTGC – related products and spread Derivatives
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 Jan‐16 % YoY % QoQ
Spread
Naphtha MOPJ
Ethylene SEA
Propylene SEA
HDPE SEA
LLDPE SEA
LDPE SEA
MEG SEA
903 993 956 888 1,021 894 915 944 961 858 920 946 935 951 913 647 494 563 461 445 352 (31.2) (3.5)
1,238 1,291 1,160 1,061 1,251 1,146 1,200 1,286 1,395 1,265 1,322 1,427 1,441 1,447 1,478 1,214 1,026 1,386 970 1,033 1,007 (14.9) 6.5
1,379 1,487 1,394 1,283 1,281 1,257 1,257 1,247 1,306 1,297 1,336 1,366 1,369 1,279 1,301 1,032 833 940 736 587 643 (43.1) (20.2)
1,372 1,389 1,399 1,329 1,395 1,376 1,343 1,393 1,482 1,443 1,489 1,536 1,554 1,569 1,604 1,448 1,188 1,375 1,234 1,153 1,082 (20.4) (6.6)
1,423 1,380 1,338 1,217 1,318 1,342 1,341 1,399 1,477 1,433 1,490 1,549 1,560 1,578 1,601 1,431 1,181 1,375 1,224 1,158 1,085 (19.1) (5.4)
1,731 1,683 1,586 1,408 1,391 1,349 1,327 1,369 1,459 1,444 1,569 1,664 1,639 1,605 1,601 1,440 1,192 1,401 1,244 1,158 1,088 (19.6) (6.9)
1,250 1,300 1,343 1,362 1,237 1,149 1,065 1,247 1,282 1,173 1,143 1,208 1,182 1,093 1,143 1,035 903 1,027 1,025 837 780 (19.1) (18.3)
Ethylene - MOPJ
Propylene - MOPJ
HDPE - MOPJ
LLDPE - MOPJ
LDPE - MOPJ
MEG (0.65 Ethylene)
335 298 204 172 230 253 285 342 434 407 402 481 507 496 565 567 532 823 509 588 655 3.7 15.5
476 494 438 394 261 364 342 303 345 439 416 420 434 328 388 385 339 377 275 142 291 (63.1) (48.4)
469 397 443 441 374 482 428 449 521 585 569 590 620 618 691 802 694 812 774 708 730 (11.7) (8.5)
520 387 382 328 297 449 426 455 515 575 570 603 625 627 688 785 687 811 763 713 733 (9.2) (6.6)
828 691 630 520 370 455 412 425 498 586 649 718 705 653 688 793 698 837 783 713 737 (10.1) (8.9)
445 461 589 672 424 404 285 411 375 351 284 281 245 152 182 246 236 126 394 166 126 (32.7) (58.0)
Source: PTTGC, KT ZMICO Research REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 6
Figure 3: Price and spread movement – aromatics chain Unit : US$/ton
PTTGC – related products and spreads
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 Jan‐2016 % YoY % QoQ
PX Spot Taiwan 1,635 1,443 1,485 1,432 1,284 1,259 1,346 999 827 935 820 793 719 (20.6) (3.3)
PX FECP 1,552 1,598 1,532 1,483 1,562 1,497 1,344 1,535 1,618 1,409 1,440 1,440 1,303 1,256 1,350 1,035 785 924 823 786 719 (24.1) (4.5)
BZ Spot Korea 1,146 1,148 1,126 997 1,181 1,107 1,177 1,362 1,379 1,286 1,258 1,283 1,297 1,293 1,301 954 670 804 661 606 552 (36.5) (8.3)
Condensate Erawan 859 980 942 914 1,006 927 918 931 948 870 929 937 917 922 872 634 453 533 427 375 274 (40.9) (12.2)
PX Spot Taiwan ‐ Condensate
687 572 556 494 367 337 474 365 374 403 394 417 445 14.2 5.8
PX FECP ‐ Condensate 693 618 590 569 556 570 426 604 670 539 511 502 386 334 479 401 333 391 397 410 445 2.2 3.3
BZ Spot‐ Condensate 286 168 184 84 175 180 259 431 431 416 329 346 380 370 430 320 217 271 235 230 278 (28.1) (2.1)
Source: PTTGC, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 4: PTTGC’s PBV band
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 6
Figure 5: PTTGC’s valuation comparison with regional peers NAME
Mkt Cap (US$Mn)
PER (x) 16E 17E
PBV (x) 16E 17E
EV/EBITDA (x) 16E 17E
YLD (%) 16E 17E
ROE (%) 16E 17E
PETRONAS CHEMICALS GROUP BHD FORMOSA PETROCHEMICAL CORP FORMOSA PLASTICS CORP NAN YA PLASTICS CORP TAIWAN IRPC PCL PTT GLOBAL CHEMICAL PCL SIAM CEMENT PCL/THE INDORAMA VENTURES PCL THAI OIL PCL THAILAND HANWHA CHEMICAL CORP SAMSUNG SDI CO LTD LG CHEM LTD LOTTE CHEMICAL CORP S. KOREA AVERAGE
12,745.4 22,962.3 14,283.8 13,098.8 2,470.8 6,245.4 14,108.2 2,736.1 3,708.5 3,349.1 4,991.8 15,329.4 7,159.8
19.7 18.7 16.0 13.0 16.8 10.1 7.1 11.5 17.7 9.0 10.8 17.0 24.2 12.6 8.1 15.5 14.4
2.3 2.8 1.5 1.3 2.0 1.1 0.9 2.5 1.3 1.3 1.5 0.9 0.5 1.4 2.4 1.3 1.6
10.0 12.4 23.7 12.9 14.7 7.7 4.7 9.5 9.7 6.2 7.5 10.2 10.2 5.8 4.1 7.6 9.9
2.7 4.5 3.8 4.7 3.9 5.0 6.4 3.8 2.1 4.5 4.3 0.8 1.3 1.6 0.5 1.0 3.1
11.5 14.8 9.8 9.7 11.5 11.3 12.9 22.4 8.6 15.4 14.8 5.2 4.9 11.2 15.1 9.1 11.8
17.9 18.2 14.9 12.5 15.9 9.5 8.0 11.0 15.0 9.1 10.2 11.0 16.9 11.1 7.8 11.7 12.6
2.2 2.7 1.4 1.2 1.9 1.0 0.8 2.2 1.3 1.2 1.3 0.8 0.5 1.3 2.2 1.2 1.5
9.0 13.0 22.7 12.5 14.3 6.9 4.5 9.3 8.2 5.8 6.8 8.6 8.2 5.3 4.2 6.6 9.2
2.9 4.4 4.0 4.8 4.0 5.3 5.6 4.0 2.2 4.4 4.4 1.1 1.3 1.6 0.6 1.2 3.2
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 6
12.2 14.0 10.0 9.6 11.4 11.3 10.6 20.7 8.7 13.9 13.9 7.7 3.0 11.6 13.6 9.0 11.4
Financial tables PROFIT & LOSS (Btm) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Forex gain (loss) Extra Items Gain (loss) from affiliates Minority interests Net profit Reported EPS Fully diluted EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt) BALANCE SHEET (Btm) Cash and equivalents Accounts receivable Inventories PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long‐term debt Total liabilities Paid‐up shares Shareholder equity Minority interests Total liab. & shareholder equity CASH FLOW (Btm) Net income Forex and other extraordinary adjustments Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Others Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt) PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%)
2013 552,881 (500,673) 52,208 (12,966) 55,979 16,737 39,242 (6,084) 3,757 36,915 (1,976) (1,322) (833) (77) 433 33,140 7.35 7.35 35,294 7.83 3.40
2014 574,010 (543,647) 30,363 (14,565) 33,169 17,371 15,798 (5,487) 5,360 15,671 (559) 125 (2,239) 534 1,504 15,036 3.33 3.33 16,053 3.56 2.37
2015E 397,077 (358,741) 38,336 (11,346) 43,282 16,292 26,989 (5,275) 4,125 25,839 (2,078) (2,109) (1,718) 785 (171) 20,547 4.56 4.56 24,375 5.41 2.50
2016E 459,479 (414,797) 44,682 (9,862) 52,935 18,116 34,819 (3,527) 1,950 33,243 (3,050) 737 0 1,167 (300) 31,798 7.05 7.05 31,060 6.89 3.17
2017E 456,552 (416,095) 40,457 (9,525) 49,511 18,579 30,932 (3,228) 1,945 29,650 (2,781) 214 0 1,292 (300) 28,074 6.22 6.22 27,861 6.18 2.80
2013 44,384 61,779 50,240 230,934 45,373 432,710 24,438 95,785 187,353 45,088 238,503 6,855 432,710
2014 45,788 43,441 31,577 219,346 40,013 380,164 23,467 89,675 152,993 45,088 224,763 2,408 380,164
2015E 56,534 38,076 29,486 214,392 40,779 379,265 29,745 79,547 140,409 45,088 236,277 2,579 379,265
2016E 54,989 39,024 34,093 204,039 41,856 374,001 7,745 70,994 114,324 45,088 256,797 2,879 374,001
2017E 71,299 38,776 34,200 193,185 42,947 380,405 13,377 57,417 106,663 45,088 270,563 3,179 380,405
2013 33,140 1,322 16,737 (10,114) 41,085 (14,445)
2014 15,036 (125) 17,371 10,617 42,899 (14,910)
2015E 20,547 2,109 16,292 (1,414) 37,535 (12,141)
2016E 31,798 (737) 18,116 (1,868) 47,309 (8,480)
2017E 28,074 (214) 18,579 (483) 45,957 (8,443)
(14,445) (16,634) (1,377) (15,337) (8,970) (42,317) (15,678) 26,640 5.91
(14,910) (7,080) (11,401) (15,337) 7,233 (26,585) 1,404 27,989 6.20
(12,141) (3,850) 2,271 (10,691) (2,378) (14,648) 10,746 25,394 5.63
(8,480) (30,553) 868 (11,277) 590 (40,373) (1,544) 38,828 8.61
(8,443) (7,945) 992 (14,309) 58 (21,204) 16,309 37,514 8.32
2013 (2.3) 3.8 (2.5) 9.4 10.1 7.1 6.0 6.4 5.4
2014 3.8 (40.7) (54.6) 5.3 5.8 2.8 2.6 2.8 3.6
2015E (30.8) 30.5 36.7 9.7 10.9 6.8 5.2 6.1 8.0
2016E 15.7 22.3 54.8 9.7 11.5 7.6 6.9 6.8 9.2
2017E (0.6) (6.5) (11.7) 8.9 10.8 6.8 6.1 6.1 9.4
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 5 of 6
Note: KT ZMICO is a partnership between KTB and ZMICO. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, SUTHA, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, PLE, TPOLY, UWC. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of TKN.
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 6 of 6
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
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Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
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Chonburi Branch
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4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
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T.Namuang, A.Muang,
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Bangkok 10330
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Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
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624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
Company Update
Close Bt49.75
Petrochemicals January 27, 2016
Earnings upgrade/ Earnings downgrade /Overview unchanged
LT prospects intact Price Performance (%)
High and healthy olefins exposure; growth cycle to continue Although the share price is being pressured by China’s economic slowdown, we maintain our Outperform rating on PTTGC (gas‐based cracker) due to the solid olefins‐chain market with the strong PE spread to continue in 2016E, the ongoing albeit narrowing competitive advantage of gas‐based crackers over naphtha‐based crackers, and PTTGC’s growth potential through new investment projects that will enlarge long‐term profit. Expected to deliver Bt4.7bn NP in 4Q15E We expect PTTGC to deliver Bt4.7bn NP in 4Q15E, better both YoY and QoQ, thanks to the solid operation line and mix of one‐off extra items. The projected hedging gain on crude inventory (~Bt2.9bn) should more than offset the expected stock loss (Bt2.1bn) despite the negative impact of the US$60mn impairment charge on its pilot bio‐plastics plant (R&D) given a lower‐than‐expected utilization rate (~at 45%) to secure qualified product. Its quarterly operation line is likely to perform well with olefins backed by a sustained high operating rate as well as higher ethane flow from PTT and solid PE spreads (still above US$700/ton), resulting in an EBITDA margin of 22% in 4Q15E. Meanwhile, its refinery and aromatics should be driven by high market GRM and widening P2F.
Source: SET Smart
FY15
FY16
Consensus EPS (Bt)
5.648
6.386
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐19.3%
10.4%
Reuters / Bloomberg
PTTGC.BK/PTTGC TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
4,508.85
Par (Bt)
10.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
224.00/6,256.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
37.00/19.81
52 week High / Low (Bt)
71.25/44.25
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
12,420.00
NVDR (%)
8.33
Estimated free float (%)
51.07
Beta
1.66
URL
www.pttgcgroup.com
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Level 5 (Extended)
Patcharin Karsemarnuntana Analyst, no 17834 [email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5837
2015E earnings fine‐tuned; 2016E earnings forecast maintained We fine‐tune our 2015E core profit by ‐7% to Bt24.4bn and NP by ‐10% to Bt20.5bn, respectively, to reflect the 4Q15E earnings estimates. Meanwhile, we maintain the 2016E NP of Bt31.8bn, with the olefins business as the main contributor driven by the sustained high 95% utilization rate (despite the 39‐day shutdown of its 1mta cracker in late 1Q16E), higher gas flow (ethane feedstock) from PTT and the continuing solid PE spreads. Map Ta Phut retrofit = higher olefins volume and feedstock flexibility The company’s Map Ta Phut retrofit seems to have a more concrete picture than other new projects, with the final investment cost to be known in late 2016E and target COD in early 2020E. This project will utilize its naphtha sold in the spot market for captive use as feedstock in its new naphtha‐based cracker, resulting in larger olefins volume, an upgrade of linked downstream product, and higher feedstock flexibility. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2013 552,881 33,140 7.35 (2.53) 3.40 52.90 2013 6.77 5.36 0.94 6.8% 14.4% 31.8%
2014 574,010 15,036 3.33 (54.63) 2.37 49.85 2014 14.92 8.79 1.00 4.8% 6.5% 30.0%
2015E 397,077 20,547 4.56 36.65 2.50 52.40 2015E 10.92 6.40 0.95 5.0% 8.9% 22.3%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 6
2016E 459,479 31,798 7.05 54.75 3.17 56.95 2016E 7.06 4.69 0.87 6.4% 12.9% 9.2%
2017E 456,552 28,074 6.22 (11.71) 2.80 60.01 2017E 7.99 4.52 0.83 5.6% 10.6% ‐0.2%
Figure 1: PTTGC’s 4Q15E earnings preview Profit and Loss (Btmn) Year‐end 31 Dec Revenue Gross profit EBITDA Interest expense Other income Income tax Forex gain (loss) Other extraordinary Items Gn (Ls) from affiliates Minority interests Net profit (loss) Core profit (loss) Reported EPS (Bt) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Net margin (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Interest‐bearing debt / equity (x) BVPS (Bt) ROE (%)
4Q14 122,744 (1,719) (957) (1,117) 1,229 923 (451) ‐ (312) (55) (4,780) (4,329) (1.06) (1.4) (0.8) (3.9) 2.2 (4.5) 0.5 49.8 (8.1)
3Q15 94,466 6,311 7,614 (1,257) (195) 216 (1,393) ‐ 485 (86) 1,207 2,600 0.27 6.7 8.1 1.3 2.5 2.7 0.5 51.0 2.1
4Q15E 90,546 9,029 9,959 (1,271) 3,092 (863) 244 (2,150) (40) (71) 4,735 6,642 1.05
% YoY (26.2) nm nm 13.8 151.5 nm nm nm (87.2) 29.1 nm nm nm
% QoQ (4.1) 43.1 30.8 1.1 nm nm nm nm nm (17.5) 292.2 155.4 288.9
10.0 11.0 5.2
2.3 4.6
0.5 52.4 16.5
2014 574,010 30,363 33,169 (5,487) 5,360 (559) 125 (2,239) 534 1,504 15,036 16,053 3.33 5.3 5.8 2.6 2.2 2.9 0.5 49.8 6.5
2015E 397,077 38,336 43,282 (5,275) 4,125 (2,078) (2,109) (1,718) 785 (171) 20,547 24,375 4.56 9.7 10.9 5.2 2.3 5.1 0.5 52.4 8.9
% YoY (30.8) 26.3 30.5 (3.9) (23.1) 271.5 nm (23.3) 47.0 nm 36.7 51.8 36.7
Source: KT ZMICO Research Figure 2: Price and spread movement ‐ olefins and polymer chain Unit: US$/ton PTTGC – related products and spread Derivatives
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 Jan‐16 % YoY % QoQ
Spread
Naphtha MOPJ
Ethylene SEA
Propylene SEA
HDPE SEA
LLDPE SEA
LDPE SEA
MEG SEA
903 993 956 888 1,021 894 915 944 961 858 920 946 935 951 913 647 494 563 461 445 352 (31.2) (3.5)
1,238 1,291 1,160 1,061 1,251 1,146 1,200 1,286 1,395 1,265 1,322 1,427 1,441 1,447 1,478 1,214 1,026 1,386 970 1,033 1,007 (14.9) 6.5
1,379 1,487 1,394 1,283 1,281 1,257 1,257 1,247 1,306 1,297 1,336 1,366 1,369 1,279 1,301 1,032 833 940 736 587 643 (43.1) (20.2)
1,372 1,389 1,399 1,329 1,395 1,376 1,343 1,393 1,482 1,443 1,489 1,536 1,554 1,569 1,604 1,448 1,188 1,375 1,234 1,153 1,082 (20.4) (6.6)
1,423 1,380 1,338 1,217 1,318 1,342 1,341 1,399 1,477 1,433 1,490 1,549 1,560 1,578 1,601 1,431 1,181 1,375 1,224 1,158 1,085 (19.1) (5.4)
1,731 1,683 1,586 1,408 1,391 1,349 1,327 1,369 1,459 1,444 1,569 1,664 1,639 1,605 1,601 1,440 1,192 1,401 1,244 1,158 1,088 (19.6) (6.9)
1,250 1,300 1,343 1,362 1,237 1,149 1,065 1,247 1,282 1,173 1,143 1,208 1,182 1,093 1,143 1,035 903 1,027 1,025 837 780 (19.1) (18.3)
Ethylene - MOPJ
Propylene - MOPJ
HDPE - MOPJ
LLDPE - MOPJ
LDPE - MOPJ
MEG (0.65 Ethylene)
335 298 204 172 230 253 285 342 434 407 402 481 507 496 565 567 532 823 509 588 655 3.7 15.5
476 494 438 394 261 364 342 303 345 439 416 420 434 328 388 385 339 377 275 142 291 (63.1) (48.4)
469 397 443 441 374 482 428 449 521 585 569 590 620 618 691 802 694 812 774 708 730 (11.7) (8.5)
520 387 382 328 297 449 426 455 515 575 570 603 625 627 688 785 687 811 763 713 733 (9.2) (6.6)
828 691 630 520 370 455 412 425 498 586 649 718 705 653 688 793 698 837 783 713 737 (10.1) (8.9)
445 461 589 672 424 404 285 411 375 351 284 281 245 152 182 246 236 126 394 166 126 (32.7) (58.0)
Source: PTTGC, KT ZMICO Research REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 6
Figure 3: Price and spread movement – aromatics chain Unit : US$/ton
PTTGC – related products and spreads
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 Jan‐2016 % YoY % QoQ
PX Spot Taiwan 1,635 1,443 1,485 1,432 1,284 1,259 1,346 999 827 935 820 793 719 (20.6) (3.3)
PX FECP 1,552 1,598 1,532 1,483 1,562 1,497 1,344 1,535 1,618 1,409 1,440 1,440 1,303 1,256 1,350 1,035 785 924 823 786 719 (24.1) (4.5)
BZ Spot Korea 1,146 1,148 1,126 997 1,181 1,107 1,177 1,362 1,379 1,286 1,258 1,283 1,297 1,293 1,301 954 670 804 661 606 552 (36.5) (8.3)
Condensate Erawan 859 980 942 914 1,006 927 918 931 948 870 929 937 917 922 872 634 453 533 427 375 274 (40.9) (12.2)
PX Spot Taiwan ‐ Condensate
687 572 556 494 367 337 474 365 374 403 394 417 445 14.2 5.8
PX FECP ‐ Condensate 693 618 590 569 556 570 426 604 670 539 511 502 386 334 479 401 333 391 397 410 445 2.2 3.3
BZ Spot‐ Condensate 286 168 184 84 175 180 259 431 431 416 329 346 380 370 430 320 217 271 235 230 278 (28.1) (2.1)
Source: PTTGC, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 4: PTTGC’s PBV band
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 6
Figure 5: PTTGC’s valuation comparison with regional peers NAME
Mkt Cap (US$Mn)
PER (x) 16E 17E
PBV (x) 16E 17E
EV/EBITDA (x) 16E 17E
YLD (%) 16E 17E
ROE (%) 16E 17E
PETRONAS CHEMICALS GROUP BHD FORMOSA PETROCHEMICAL CORP FORMOSA PLASTICS CORP NAN YA PLASTICS CORP TAIWAN IRPC PCL PTT GLOBAL CHEMICAL PCL SIAM CEMENT PCL/THE INDORAMA VENTURES PCL THAI OIL PCL THAILAND HANWHA CHEMICAL CORP SAMSUNG SDI CO LTD LG CHEM LTD LOTTE CHEMICAL CORP S. KOREA AVERAGE
12,745.4 22,962.3 14,283.8 13,098.8 2,470.8 6,245.4 14,108.2 2,736.1 3,708.5 3,349.1 4,991.8 15,329.4 7,159.8
19.7 18.7 16.0 13.0 16.8 10.1 7.1 11.5 17.7 9.0 10.8 17.0 24.2 12.6 8.1 15.5 14.4
2.3 2.8 1.5 1.3 2.0 1.1 0.9 2.5 1.3 1.3 1.5 0.9 0.5 1.4 2.4 1.3 1.6
10.0 12.4 23.7 12.9 14.7 7.7 4.7 9.5 9.7 6.2 7.5 10.2 10.2 5.8 4.1 7.6 9.9
2.7 4.5 3.8 4.7 3.9 5.0 6.4 3.8 2.1 4.5 4.3 0.8 1.3 1.6 0.5 1.0 3.1
11.5 14.8 9.8 9.7 11.5 11.3 12.9 22.4 8.6 15.4 14.8 5.2 4.9 11.2 15.1 9.1 11.8
17.9 18.2 14.9 12.5 15.9 9.5 8.0 11.0 15.0 9.1 10.2 11.0 16.9 11.1 7.8 11.7 12.6
2.2 2.7 1.4 1.2 1.9 1.0 0.8 2.2 1.3 1.2 1.3 0.8 0.5 1.3 2.2 1.2 1.5
9.0 13.0 22.7 12.5 14.3 6.9 4.5 9.3 8.2 5.8 6.8 8.6 8.2 5.3 4.2 6.6 9.2
2.9 4.4 4.0 4.8 4.0 5.3 5.6 4.0 2.2 4.4 4.4 1.1 1.3 1.6 0.6 1.2 3.2
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 6
12.2 14.0 10.0 9.6 11.4 11.3 10.6 20.7 8.7 13.9 13.9 7.7 3.0 11.6 13.6 9.0 11.4
Financial tables PROFIT & LOSS (Btm) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Forex gain (loss) Extra Items Gain (loss) from affiliates Minority interests Net profit Reported EPS Fully diluted EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt) BALANCE SHEET (Btm) Cash and equivalents Accounts receivable Inventories PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long‐term debt Total liabilities Paid‐up shares Shareholder equity Minority interests Total liab. & shareholder equity CASH FLOW (Btm) Net income Forex and other extraordinary adjustments Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Others Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt) PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%)
2013 552,881 (500,673) 52,208 (12,966) 55,979 16,737 39,242 (6,084) 3,757 36,915 (1,976) (1,322) (833) (77) 433 33,140 7.35 7.35 35,294 7.83 3.40
2014 574,010 (543,647) 30,363 (14,565) 33,169 17,371 15,798 (5,487) 5,360 15,671 (559) 125 (2,239) 534 1,504 15,036 3.33 3.33 16,053 3.56 2.37
2015E 397,077 (358,741) 38,336 (11,346) 43,282 16,292 26,989 (5,275) 4,125 25,839 (2,078) (2,109) (1,718) 785 (171) 20,547 4.56 4.56 24,375 5.41 2.50
2016E 459,479 (414,797) 44,682 (9,862) 52,935 18,116 34,819 (3,527) 1,950 33,243 (3,050) 737 0 1,167 (300) 31,798 7.05 7.05 31,060 6.89 3.17
2017E 456,552 (416,095) 40,457 (9,525) 49,511 18,579 30,932 (3,228) 1,945 29,650 (2,781) 214 0 1,292 (300) 28,074 6.22 6.22 27,861 6.18 2.80
2013 44,384 61,779 50,240 230,934 45,373 432,710 24,438 95,785 187,353 45,088 238,503 6,855 432,710
2014 45,788 43,441 31,577 219,346 40,013 380,164 23,467 89,675 152,993 45,088 224,763 2,408 380,164
2015E 56,534 38,076 29,486 214,392 40,779 379,265 29,745 79,547 140,409 45,088 236,277 2,579 379,265
2016E 54,989 39,024 34,093 204,039 41,856 374,001 7,745 70,994 114,324 45,088 256,797 2,879 374,001
2017E 71,299 38,776 34,200 193,185 42,947 380,405 13,377 57,417 106,663 45,088 270,563 3,179 380,405
2013 33,140 1,322 16,737 (10,114) 41,085 (14,445)
2014 15,036 (125) 17,371 10,617 42,899 (14,910)
2015E 20,547 2,109 16,292 (1,414) 37,535 (12,141)
2016E 31,798 (737) 18,116 (1,868) 47,309 (8,480)
2017E 28,074 (214) 18,579 (483) 45,957 (8,443)
(14,445) (16,634) (1,377) (15,337) (8,970) (42,317) (15,678) 26,640 5.91
(14,910) (7,080) (11,401) (15,337) 7,233 (26,585) 1,404 27,989 6.20
(12,141) (3,850) 2,271 (10,691) (2,378) (14,648) 10,746 25,394 5.63
(8,480) (30,553) 868 (11,277) 590 (40,373) (1,544) 38,828 8.61
(8,443) (7,945) 992 (14,309) 58 (21,204) 16,309 37,514 8.32
2013 (2.3) 3.8 (2.5) 9.4 10.1 7.1 6.0 6.4 5.4
2014 3.8 (40.7) (54.6) 5.3 5.8 2.8 2.6 2.8 3.6
2015E (30.8) 30.5 36.7 9.7 10.9 6.8 5.2 6.1 8.0
2016E 15.7 22.3 54.8 9.7 11.5 7.6 6.9 6.8 9.2
2017E (0.6) (6.5) (11.7) 8.9 10.8 6.8 6.1 6.1 9.4
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 5 of 6
Note: KT ZMICO is a partnership between KTB and ZMICO. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, SUTHA, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, PLE, TPOLY, UWC. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of TKN.
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 6 of 6
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
