Recovery is still slow - AWS
CNI Indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 25 • Number 10 • October 2017
25 YEARS
INDUSTRIAL INDICATORS Recovery is still slow Industry remains on a moderate recovery path. On the one hand, the indicators of real sales, real total payroll and real earning show a clearer positive trend driven by falling inflation. On the other hand, hours worked, employment and capacity utilization have experienced small fluctuations in recent months without following a definite trend. All in all, these results suggest that the variables surveyed remain at low levels and reinforce a scenario of weak industrial activity. In the year to date, most indices are still down on a year-on-year basis. Employment and hours
worked show the steepest declines: down by 3.2% and 2.6% respectively. Sales are also down by 1.3%, while total payroll shows a 2.2% decline. The indicator of real average earnings is the only one to record growth on this comparison basis. In October, the seasonally adjusted capacity utilization rate stood at 77.7%, up by 1.6 percentage points from the figure registered in the same month in 2016. Yet, idleness remains very high: capacity utilization in October 2017 is 3.7 percentage points lower than the average for October in previous years.
Industrial indicators - October 2017 Seasonally adjusted change from september 2017
Ç da Construção
Ç Indústria de Energia
Ç Indústrias Diversas
REAL SALES Up by 1.7%
Ç
EMPLOYMENT Up by 0.1%
HOURS WORKED IN PRODUCTION Down by 0.7%
Ç
REAL TOTAL PAYROLL Up by 0.3%
CAPACITY UTILIZATION Up by 0.2 percentage point
Ç
REAL AVERAGE EARNINGS Up by 0.9%
Industrial indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 25 • Number 10 • October 2017
Real Sales Seasonally adjusted (fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Sales grow again in October
130
Industrial sales edged up by 1.7% in October in the seasonally adjusted series, accumulating growth of 1.9% in the last two months. Sales are up by 11.9% in October 2017 on a year-over-year basis. Nevertheless, the indicator is down by 1.3% in the first ten months of 2017 as compared to the corresponding period the year before.
120
110
100
Oct/14
Apr/15
Oct/15
Apr/16
Oct/16
Apr/17
Oct/17
Deflator: IPA/OG-FGV
Employment Seasonally adjusted (fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Jobs holding steady
114
After remaining stable in the previous month, industrial employment increased by 0.1% in October as compared to September on a seasonally adjusted basis. Jobs are down by 1.3% as compared to October 2016 and by 3.2% in the year to October 2017 from the same period in 2016.
110 106
102 98
Oct/14
Apr/15
Oct/15
Apr/16
Oct/16
Apr/17
Oct/17
Hours worked in production Seasonally adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Decline in hours worked
105
Hours worked in production dropped by 0.7% in October on a seasonally adjusted basis. In the previous three months, the index held almost steady as it grew by 0.2% in July and September and by 0.1% in August. Hours worked in October 2017 are 0.3% higher than those recorded in the same month the year before. In the JanuaryOctober 2017 period, the indicator is down by 2.6% from the corresponding period in 2016.
100 95
90 85
Oct/14
Apr/15
Oct/15
Apr/16
Oct/16
Apr/17
Oct/17
2
Industrial indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 25 • Number 10 • October 2017
Real total payroll Seasonally-adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100) 130
Total payroll slightly up
125
Real total payroll rose by 0.3% in October in the seasonally adjusted series. During the second half of the year, the indicator has been alternating between negative and positive monthly variations, but the declines have been more pronounced. In October 2017, total payroll experienced a 0.2% decline as compared to the same month in 2016, while the year-to-date figure is down by 2.2% from the corresponding period of 2016.
120
115
110
Oct/14
Apr/15
Oct/15
Apr/16
Oct/16
Apr/17
Oct/17
Deflator: INPC-IBGE
Real average earnings Seasonally adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Real average earnings also grow
130
October 2017 saw a 0.9% seasonally adjusted year-on-year gain in real average earnings. The increase only partially offset the 2.3% drop seen in the previous month. Yet, real average earnings in October 2017 are 1.2% higher than the figure recorded in the same month last year, while the indicator is up by 1% in the year to October from the corresponding period of 2016.
125
120
115
110
Oct/14
Apr/15
Oct/15
Apr/16
Oct/16
Apr/17
Oct/17
Deflator: INPC-IBGE Indústria de Energia
Capacity utilization Seasonally adjusted (average percentage)
ias Diversas
Capacity utilization keeps fluctuating
83
81
77.7% Grande
79
77
Oct/14
Apr/15
Oct/15
Apr/16
Oct/16
Apr/17
Oct/17
3
The capacity utilization rate stood at 77.7% in October 2017, representing a 0.2-percentage point increase in seasonally adjusted terms. The indicator has hovered around 77.5% in the last four months without following a definite trend. Nevertheless, the indicator for October 2017 is up by 1.6 percentage points from the same month last year, while the average capacity utilization rate in the first 10 months of 2017 is virtually the same as that observed in the corresponding period of 2016 (up by only 0.1 percentage points).
Industrial indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 25 • Number 10 • October 2017
Resume of results - Industrial indicators PERCENTAGE CHANGE
OCT17/ SEP17
OCT17/ SEP17 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
OCT17/ OCT16
JAN-OCT17/ JAN-OCT16
Real sales1
3.7
1.7
11.9
-1.3
Worked hours in production
0.9
-0.7
0.3
-2.6
Employment
0.1
0.1
-1.3
-3.2
Real total payroll2
1.1
0.3
-0.2
-2.2
Real average earnings2
1.1
0.9
1.2
1.0
1 Deflator: IPA/OG-FGV - 2 Deflator: INPC-IBGE
AVERAGE PERCENTAGE
OCT17
SEP17
OCT16
Capacity utilization
79.2
78.4
77.6
Capacity utilization - Seasonally adjusted
77.7
77.5
76.1
i
Learn more For more information on the survey, including sectoral results, previous editions, methodology and historical series, visit: www.cni.org.br/e_indindustriais
INDUSTR IAL IN D ICATOR S | English version of “Indicadores industriais outubro/2017” | Monthly Publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www.cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Unit - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC | Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Marcelo Souza Azevedo, Edson Velloso and Priscila Garcia | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic design supervision: Alisson Costa | Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 - email: [email protected] | This publication may be copied, provided that the source is cited.
25 YEARS
INDUSTRIAL INDICATORS Recovery is still slow Industry remains on a moderate recovery path. On the one hand, the indicators of real sales, real total payroll and real earning show a clearer positive trend driven by falling inflation. On the other hand, hours worked, employment and capacity utilization have experienced small fluctuations in recent months without following a definite trend. All in all, these results suggest that the variables surveyed remain at low levels and reinforce a scenario of weak industrial activity. In the year to date, most indices are still down on a year-on-year basis. Employment and hours
worked show the steepest declines: down by 3.2% and 2.6% respectively. Sales are also down by 1.3%, while total payroll shows a 2.2% decline. The indicator of real average earnings is the only one to record growth on this comparison basis. In October, the seasonally adjusted capacity utilization rate stood at 77.7%, up by 1.6 percentage points from the figure registered in the same month in 2016. Yet, idleness remains very high: capacity utilization in October 2017 is 3.7 percentage points lower than the average for October in previous years.
Industrial indicators - October 2017 Seasonally adjusted change from september 2017
Ç da Construção
Ç Indústria de Energia
Ç Indústrias Diversas
REAL SALES Up by 1.7%
Ç
EMPLOYMENT Up by 0.1%
HOURS WORKED IN PRODUCTION Down by 0.7%
Ç
REAL TOTAL PAYROLL Up by 0.3%
CAPACITY UTILIZATION Up by 0.2 percentage point
Ç
REAL AVERAGE EARNINGS Up by 0.9%
Industrial indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 25 • Number 10 • October 2017
Real Sales Seasonally adjusted (fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Sales grow again in October
130
Industrial sales edged up by 1.7% in October in the seasonally adjusted series, accumulating growth of 1.9% in the last two months. Sales are up by 11.9% in October 2017 on a year-over-year basis. Nevertheless, the indicator is down by 1.3% in the first ten months of 2017 as compared to the corresponding period the year before.
120
110
100
Oct/14
Apr/15
Oct/15
Apr/16
Oct/16
Apr/17
Oct/17
Deflator: IPA/OG-FGV
Employment Seasonally adjusted (fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Jobs holding steady
114
After remaining stable in the previous month, industrial employment increased by 0.1% in October as compared to September on a seasonally adjusted basis. Jobs are down by 1.3% as compared to October 2016 and by 3.2% in the year to October 2017 from the same period in 2016.
110 106
102 98
Oct/14
Apr/15
Oct/15
Apr/16
Oct/16
Apr/17
Oct/17
Hours worked in production Seasonally adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Decline in hours worked
105
Hours worked in production dropped by 0.7% in October on a seasonally adjusted basis. In the previous three months, the index held almost steady as it grew by 0.2% in July and September and by 0.1% in August. Hours worked in October 2017 are 0.3% higher than those recorded in the same month the year before. In the JanuaryOctober 2017 period, the indicator is down by 2.6% from the corresponding period in 2016.
100 95
90 85
Oct/14
Apr/15
Oct/15
Apr/16
Oct/16
Apr/17
Oct/17
2
Industrial indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 25 • Number 10 • October 2017
Real total payroll Seasonally-adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100) 130
Total payroll slightly up
125
Real total payroll rose by 0.3% in October in the seasonally adjusted series. During the second half of the year, the indicator has been alternating between negative and positive monthly variations, but the declines have been more pronounced. In October 2017, total payroll experienced a 0.2% decline as compared to the same month in 2016, while the year-to-date figure is down by 2.2% from the corresponding period of 2016.
120
115
110
Oct/14
Apr/15
Oct/15
Apr/16
Oct/16
Apr/17
Oct/17
Deflator: INPC-IBGE
Real average earnings Seasonally adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Real average earnings also grow
130
October 2017 saw a 0.9% seasonally adjusted year-on-year gain in real average earnings. The increase only partially offset the 2.3% drop seen in the previous month. Yet, real average earnings in October 2017 are 1.2% higher than the figure recorded in the same month last year, while the indicator is up by 1% in the year to October from the corresponding period of 2016.
125
120
115
110
Oct/14
Apr/15
Oct/15
Apr/16
Oct/16
Apr/17
Oct/17
Deflator: INPC-IBGE Indústria de Energia
Capacity utilization Seasonally adjusted (average percentage)
ias Diversas
Capacity utilization keeps fluctuating
83
81
77.7% Grande
79
77
Oct/14
Apr/15
Oct/15
Apr/16
Oct/16
Apr/17
Oct/17
3
The capacity utilization rate stood at 77.7% in October 2017, representing a 0.2-percentage point increase in seasonally adjusted terms. The indicator has hovered around 77.5% in the last four months without following a definite trend. Nevertheless, the indicator for October 2017 is up by 1.6 percentage points from the same month last year, while the average capacity utilization rate in the first 10 months of 2017 is virtually the same as that observed in the corresponding period of 2016 (up by only 0.1 percentage points).
Industrial indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 25 • Number 10 • October 2017
Resume of results - Industrial indicators PERCENTAGE CHANGE
OCT17/ SEP17
OCT17/ SEP17 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
OCT17/ OCT16
JAN-OCT17/ JAN-OCT16
Real sales1
3.7
1.7
11.9
-1.3
Worked hours in production
0.9
-0.7
0.3
-2.6
Employment
0.1
0.1
-1.3
-3.2
Real total payroll2
1.1
0.3
-0.2
-2.2
Real average earnings2
1.1
0.9
1.2
1.0
1 Deflator: IPA/OG-FGV - 2 Deflator: INPC-IBGE
AVERAGE PERCENTAGE
OCT17
SEP17
OCT16
Capacity utilization
79.2
78.4
77.6
Capacity utilization - Seasonally adjusted
77.7
77.5
76.1
i
Learn more For more information on the survey, including sectoral results, previous editions, methodology and historical series, visit: www.cni.org.br/e_indindustriais
INDUSTR IAL IN D ICATOR S | English version of “Indicadores industriais outubro/2017” | Monthly Publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www.cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Unit - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC | Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Marcelo Souza Azevedo, Edson Velloso and Priscila Garcia | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic design supervision: Alisson Costa | Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 - email: [email protected] | This publication may be copied, provided that the source is cited.
