Remote Sensing and Risk Management Tools
Pathway to Informed Decisions
Jerry L. Hatfield Laboratory Director National Laboratory for Agriculture and the Environment Director, Midwest Climate Hub 2110 University Blvd Ames, Iowa 50011 515-294-5723 515-294-8125 (fax) [email protected]
Takle, E S, et al., 2013: Earth Interactions 18, 1-8
Inputs Temperature Precipitation Solar radiation Carbon dioxide
Direct Growth Phenology Yield
Indirect Insects Diseases Weeds
Soil is the underlying factor as a resource for nutrients and water
Suitable Field Days (Apr 2 - Jun 3) versus April-May Rainfall, Iowa Average (1959-2013) 55 Suitable Field Days
50 45 40 35 30
y = -2.5991x + 54.048 R² = 0.45023
25 20 15 10 2
4
6 8 10 12 April - May Rainfall (inches)
14
16
Takle, E S, et al (2013). US Food Security and Climate Change: Agricultural Futures. Economics: The Open-Access, OpenAssessment EJournal, Vol. 7, 2013-34. http://dx.doi.org/10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2013-34
NDVI = (NIR-red)/(NIR+red) SAVI = (NIR-red)/(NIR+red+.05)*1.5 PSRI = (red-green)/NIR Ratio = red/NIR Often use 30+ different vegetative indices to estimate canopy parameters
Corn 2010
50 40
cta % Refle
nce
60
30 20 10 0 -10 140 160
Da
180
yo
200
fY
220
ea
240
r 260 280
460
510
610 560
1700 1600 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 850 810 760 710 660
Wa
m)
veb
(n and
1.2
1.0
NDVI
0.8
Fall strip with 135 kg ha-1 (○), Fall strip with 135 kg ha-1 with N-serve (∆), Spring strip with 135 kg ha-1 (□), Spring strip with 191 kg ha-1 (◊).
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0 110
130
150
170
190
210
230
Day of Year
250
270
290
310
0.5 0.4
Fall strip with 135 kg ha-1 (○), Fall strip with 135 kg ha-1 with N-serve (∆), Spring strip with 135 kg ha-1 (□), Spring strip with 191 kg ha-1 (◊).
PSRI
0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 110
130
150
170
190
210
230
Day of Year
250
270
290
310
Kelley Farm: Field 5, Corn: Fall Strip Exotech & CropScan Data: 2001-2005
1.0
Pioneer 34B23 Asgrow RX634YG Asgrow RX730RR/YG Pioneer 35P17 Pioneer 33P67 HSX 1120 Pioneer 34M93 Pioneer 34B24
0.8
NDVI
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0 05DEC01 15MAR02 23JUN02
01OCT02
09JAN03
19APR03
28JUL03
05NOV03 13FEB04
Date
23MAY04 31AUG04 09DEC04 19MAR05 27JUN05
05OCT05
Corn 2012 800
600 Chisel Plow No-Till Strip-Till
400
200
2500
Corn 2012 2000
140
160
180
200
220
Day of Year
240
260
280
-2
0 120
Biomass (g m )
-2
Cumulative Intercepted PAR (MJ m )
1000
1500
1000
500
Data points Biomass = 2.79 x iPAR R2 = 0.95
0 0
200
400
600
800 -2
Cumulative Intercepted PAR (MJ m )
1000
11000
Yield (kg ha-1)
10000
Corn 1998-2000
9000 8000 7000 6000 5000
Data Points Yield = -19925 + 14.7 Inter Rad r2= 0.88
4000 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
Intercepted Solar Radiation (MJ m-2)
16000
Corn 2010-2012 Total Season
14000 13000
4500
Soybean 2010-2012
12000
4000
11000 10000
-1
2010 2011 2012
9000 650
700
750
800
850
900
950
Intercepted PAR (MJ m-2)
Grain Yield (kg ha -1)
16000 15000
Corn 2010-2012 Grain-filling
3500
3000
2500 2010 2011 2012 Yield = -10972 + 20.511 iPAR R2 = 079
2000
14000 13000
1500 600
12000
650
700
750
800 -2
Intercepted PAR (MJ m )
2010 2011 2012
11000 10000 9000 250
Grain Yield (kg ha )
Grain Yield (kg ha-1)
15000
300
350
400
450
500
550
Intercepted PAR (MJ m-2)
600
650
850
8
-1
Leaf Area Index (m m )
Corn 2012
2
6
4 LAI = 3.600 + 0.0021 exp(6.0062 SAVI) R2 = 0.92
2 6
Corn 2010-2012 0.6
0.8
1.0
Soil Adjusted Vegetative Index
1.2
1.4
-2
0.4
2
0.2
Predicted LAI (m m )
5
0
4
3
2 Data poinits LAIp = 0.05 + 1.00 LAIm R2= 0.99
1
0 0
1
2
3
4
5 -2
Measured LAI (m2 m )
6
14000
2008 Continuous Corn
Yield (kg ha-1)
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000 1.26e+6
1.28e+6
1.30e+6
1.32e+6
1.34e+6
1.36e+6
Sum (1-PSRI * Daily PAR) 14000
2009 Continuous Corn
Yield (kg ha-1)
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000 Data points Yield = -152399 + 0.154 * Sum R2 = 0.52
2000 1.02e+6
1.03e+6
1.04e+6
1.05e+6
1.06e+6
Sum (1-PSRI * Daily PAR) 14000
2010 Continuous Corn 12000
Yield (kg ha-1)
The longer we can maintain green leaf area during the grainfilling period the higher the yield
Data points Yield = -101098 + 0.084 * Sum R2 = 0.87
10000
8000
6000
Data points Yield = -83665 + 0.111 * Sum R2 = 0.74
4000
2000 7.9e+5
8.0e+5
8.1e+5
8.2e+5
8.3e+5
Sum (1-PSRI * Daily PAR)
8.4e+5
8.5e+5
Irrigated and Rainfed Maize 35
y = -6.59E-10x2 + 2.84E-04x - 2.37 R² = 0.91
GPP, gC/m 2/d
28 21
14 7 0
0
50000
100000
150000
CIgreen * PARin
200000
250000
Inputs Climate Soil Genetics Nutrients Water
Mitigation Strategies
Cropping Systems CornBeans WheatSunflower CottonSorghum
Outputs Grain Forage Env. Goods Nitrate Sediment GHG’s
Adaptation Strategies
May 9-24
July 12 -27
View of spatial and temporal dynamics within and among growing seasons Detection of canopy parameters beyond crop yield and placed in a context of plant growth dynamics Evaluate the change in response relative to weather variation
Jerry L. Hatfield Laboratory Director National Laboratory for Agriculture and the Environment Director, Midwest Climate Hub 2110 University Blvd Ames, Iowa 50011 515-294-5723 515-294-8125 (fax) [email protected]
Takle, E S, et al., 2013: Earth Interactions 18, 1-8
Inputs Temperature Precipitation Solar radiation Carbon dioxide
Direct Growth Phenology Yield
Indirect Insects Diseases Weeds
Soil is the underlying factor as a resource for nutrients and water
Suitable Field Days (Apr 2 - Jun 3) versus April-May Rainfall, Iowa Average (1959-2013) 55 Suitable Field Days
50 45 40 35 30
y = -2.5991x + 54.048 R² = 0.45023
25 20 15 10 2
4
6 8 10 12 April - May Rainfall (inches)
14
16
Takle, E S, et al (2013). US Food Security and Climate Change: Agricultural Futures. Economics: The Open-Access, OpenAssessment EJournal, Vol. 7, 2013-34. http://dx.doi.org/10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2013-34
NDVI = (NIR-red)/(NIR+red) SAVI = (NIR-red)/(NIR+red+.05)*1.5 PSRI = (red-green)/NIR Ratio = red/NIR Often use 30+ different vegetative indices to estimate canopy parameters
Corn 2010
50 40
cta % Refle
nce
60
30 20 10 0 -10 140 160
Da
180
yo
200
fY
220
ea
240
r 260 280
460
510
610 560
1700 1600 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 850 810 760 710 660
Wa
m)
veb
(n and
1.2
1.0
NDVI
0.8
Fall strip with 135 kg ha-1 (○), Fall strip with 135 kg ha-1 with N-serve (∆), Spring strip with 135 kg ha-1 (□), Spring strip with 191 kg ha-1 (◊).
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0 110
130
150
170
190
210
230
Day of Year
250
270
290
310
0.5 0.4
Fall strip with 135 kg ha-1 (○), Fall strip with 135 kg ha-1 with N-serve (∆), Spring strip with 135 kg ha-1 (□), Spring strip with 191 kg ha-1 (◊).
PSRI
0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 110
130
150
170
190
210
230
Day of Year
250
270
290
310
Kelley Farm: Field 5, Corn: Fall Strip Exotech & CropScan Data: 2001-2005
1.0
Pioneer 34B23 Asgrow RX634YG Asgrow RX730RR/YG Pioneer 35P17 Pioneer 33P67 HSX 1120 Pioneer 34M93 Pioneer 34B24
0.8
NDVI
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0 05DEC01 15MAR02 23JUN02
01OCT02
09JAN03
19APR03
28JUL03
05NOV03 13FEB04
Date
23MAY04 31AUG04 09DEC04 19MAR05 27JUN05
05OCT05
Corn 2012 800
600 Chisel Plow No-Till Strip-Till
400
200
2500
Corn 2012 2000
140
160
180
200
220
Day of Year
240
260
280
-2
0 120
Biomass (g m )
-2
Cumulative Intercepted PAR (MJ m )
1000
1500
1000
500
Data points Biomass = 2.79 x iPAR R2 = 0.95
0 0
200
400
600
800 -2
Cumulative Intercepted PAR (MJ m )
1000
11000
Yield (kg ha-1)
10000
Corn 1998-2000
9000 8000 7000 6000 5000
Data Points Yield = -19925 + 14.7 Inter Rad r2= 0.88
4000 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
Intercepted Solar Radiation (MJ m-2)
16000
Corn 2010-2012 Total Season
14000 13000
4500
Soybean 2010-2012
12000
4000
11000 10000
-1
2010 2011 2012
9000 650
700
750
800
850
900
950
Intercepted PAR (MJ m-2)
Grain Yield (kg ha -1)
16000 15000
Corn 2010-2012 Grain-filling
3500
3000
2500 2010 2011 2012 Yield = -10972 + 20.511 iPAR R2 = 079
2000
14000 13000
1500 600
12000
650
700
750
800 -2
Intercepted PAR (MJ m )
2010 2011 2012
11000 10000 9000 250
Grain Yield (kg ha )
Grain Yield (kg ha-1)
15000
300
350
400
450
500
550
Intercepted PAR (MJ m-2)
600
650
850
8
-1
Leaf Area Index (m m )
Corn 2012
2
6
4 LAI = 3.600 + 0.0021 exp(6.0062 SAVI) R2 = 0.92
2 6
Corn 2010-2012 0.6
0.8
1.0
Soil Adjusted Vegetative Index
1.2
1.4
-2
0.4
2
0.2
Predicted LAI (m m )
5
0
4
3
2 Data poinits LAIp = 0.05 + 1.00 LAIm R2= 0.99
1
0 0
1
2
3
4
5 -2
Measured LAI (m2 m )
6
14000
2008 Continuous Corn
Yield (kg ha-1)
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000 1.26e+6
1.28e+6
1.30e+6
1.32e+6
1.34e+6
1.36e+6
Sum (1-PSRI * Daily PAR) 14000
2009 Continuous Corn
Yield (kg ha-1)
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000 Data points Yield = -152399 + 0.154 * Sum R2 = 0.52
2000 1.02e+6
1.03e+6
1.04e+6
1.05e+6
1.06e+6
Sum (1-PSRI * Daily PAR) 14000
2010 Continuous Corn 12000
Yield (kg ha-1)
The longer we can maintain green leaf area during the grainfilling period the higher the yield
Data points Yield = -101098 + 0.084 * Sum R2 = 0.87
10000
8000
6000
Data points Yield = -83665 + 0.111 * Sum R2 = 0.74
4000
2000 7.9e+5
8.0e+5
8.1e+5
8.2e+5
8.3e+5
Sum (1-PSRI * Daily PAR)
8.4e+5
8.5e+5
Irrigated and Rainfed Maize 35
y = -6.59E-10x2 + 2.84E-04x - 2.37 R² = 0.91
GPP, gC/m 2/d
28 21
14 7 0
0
50000
100000
150000
CIgreen * PARin
200000
250000
Inputs Climate Soil Genetics Nutrients Water
Mitigation Strategies
Cropping Systems CornBeans WheatSunflower CottonSorghum
Outputs Grain Forage Env. Goods Nitrate Sediment GHG’s
Adaptation Strategies
May 9-24
July 12 -27
View of spatial and temporal dynamics within and among growing seasons Detection of canopy parameters beyond crop yield and placed in a context of plant growth dynamics Evaluate the change in response relative to weather variation
