SWEDEN
SWEDEN
1899 Preston White Drive, Reston, Virginia 20191 (703) 264-7200 © PRIMIR/NPES 2008
INTRODUCTION In today’s global business, print faces constant change and multinational challenges. In order to react intelligently and be proactive printing industry business leaders urgently need worldwide data to reference when making internationally-based business decisions. PRIMIR recently released a series of three reports on the “World Wide Market for Print.” Pira International was commissioned to investigate the key global print markets. This study identified 51 country markets that make up 99% of the global commercial printing industry. The series of reports detail social and economic climate in each region, demographic profiles, advertising trends, internet usage/adoption, print markets and applications, print process share, and market sizing for presses, equipment, consumables and paper. Forecasts are provided through 2011. The report that follows is a summary of data and information from all three reports pertaining to this specific country. Note: Unless otherwise noted, the data is presented in U.S. Dollars, taking into account forecast rates for GDP growth and inflation, constant 2006 exchange rates have been applied. The final report includes a database where statistics are provided for both current and constant U.S. Dollars as well as in local currency (both current and constant).
SWEDEN - OVERVIEW Located in northern Europe between Norway and Finland, Sweden is the largest country in Scandinavia. Sweden is one of the larger countries in Western Europe, at almost twice the size of the UK. Its current population is approximately nine million, most of whom live in the warmer south of the country. Literacy levels are high at 99%, with 100% of the population completing primary level education and 100% completing secondary level education in 2003. Life expectancy is 78.6 years for men and 83 for women. Overall GDP in 2006 is projected at US$359 billion, with GDP per capita at US$39,648.
Sweden is a constitutional monarchy and its present constitution was adopted in 1975. The monarch does not have executive power, the role is symbolic and ceremonial only. The Swedish parliament is unicameral – the Rikstag has 349 seats, and its members are elected for a four-year term. Executive power is held 1
by the cabinet, which is comprised of 20 ministers and the prime minister. The current Head of State is King Carl XVI Gustaf and the Prime Minister is Göran Persson of the Swedish Social Democrat Workers Party, who has been Prime Minister since 1996. The political make up since the 2002 election is as follows: Social Democrats – 39.8%, Moderate Party – 15.2%, Liberal Party – 13.3%, Christian Democrats – 9.1%, Left Party – 8.3%, Center Party – 6.1% and Green Party – 4.6%.
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS The population of Sweden is estimated at nine million, 49.6% of whom are male and 50.4% female. Population projections over the coming years show an expected increase in the populace of approximately 1.01 million in the next 45 years, bringing the number of Swedish inhabitants up to 10.05 million by 2050. This represents an increase of 11.8% over this time. In common with other western countries, Sweden has an aging population, which is an issue that, although not as serious as in other countries, will need to be addressed for economic and social reasons. The median age of the population today is 40.1 years and this is forecast to increase to 43.9 by 2050; 23.4% of the population is currently over the age of 60 and this is forecast to increase to 30.9% by 2050.
2
Figure 1 Sweden: Long-term Demographic Trends by Age Group, 2000-2050 0-14
15-64
65+
Total population
70
10,200 10,054
10,000
60 9,800
% population
64.3
9,600
60.9 40
9,400
59.2
9,200 30 20
18.4
24.7
22.1
8,877 17.0
8,800
16.1
8,600
17.3
10
9,000
Total population ('000s)
50
9,650
8,400 0
8,200 2000
2025
2050
Source: United Nations
ECONOMIC TRENDS In 2006 total GDP in Sweden is projected to be US$359 billion, with GDP growth standing at 3.5%, up from 2.7% in 2005, and a figure of 2.4% is forecast for 2007. Inflation levels are fairly stable, rising to around 2% in 2006. Sweden is an industrialized country, with significant natural resources. Industry makes up 29% of GDP, services 69% and agriculture 2%. There was a severe recession in the early 90s but in recent years the economy has performed well, with strong growth, increasing productivity levels, low inflation and a government budget surplus. Export focus has now shifted to IT, telecommunications and services products from the more traditional products of paper, pulp and steel. The prognosis for the economy remains favorable, however risk factors include continuing high unemployment and external factors such as rising oil prices. Sweden is a member of the European Union but has elected not to be a part of the Euro currency zone.
3
Table 1 Sweden: Key Economic Indicators, 2003-2007 Indicator Population ('000s) Exchange rate (=US$1) Purchasing power parity (=US$1) GDP (local currency, millions, current prices) GDP (local currency, millions, constant 2000 prices) GDP (current, US$ million) GDP, PPP (current, US$ million) GDP per capita (US$) GDP per capita, PPP (US$) GDP growth (%) GDP deflator (%) Consumer price index (2000=100) Imports (US$ million) Exports (US$ million)
2003 8,975 8.07 10.03 2,459,413
2004 9,008 7.34 9.87 2,573,176
2005 9,041 7.45 9.72 2,673,064
2006p 9,066 7.86 9.74 2,824,909
2007f 9,092 7.90 9.78 2,956,783
2,325,385
2,411,424
2,476,532
2,563,211
2,624,728
304,854 241,761 33,967 26,937 1.7 2.0 106.6 84,199 102,407
350,664 257,042 38,928 28,535 3.7 0.8 107.0 100,782 123,295
358,819 270,516 39,688 29,921 2.7 1.1 107.5 111,230 130,162
359,463 283,802 39,648 31,303 3.5 2.1 109.8 n/a n/a
374,307 296,715 41,171 32,636 2.4 2.2 112.2 n/a n/a
Note: p=projected; f=forecast Source: Pira International, Ltd calculations from the United Nations (population data), International Monetary Fund (economic data)
THE MEDIA ENVIRONMENT There were 90 daily newspapers in print in Sweden in 2004, five of which are nationals and 85 of which are regional/local. Circulation of dailies was US$3.6 million, down 1.9% from 2000. The top selling daily is Aftonbladet which has a circulation of 444,000, followed by Dagens Nyheter with a circulation of 363,000. 2004 newspaper advertising revenue was US$1,237 million.
In 2004 there were 520 magazine titles in Sweden (200 consumer and 320 business), a decrease of 1.2% compared to 2001. Some 65% of revenue was derived from advertising and 35% from sales. The major consumer magazine publishers in 2004 included Bannier Tidskrifter and Allers, and the major business publishers include LRF and Ekonomi & Teknik Förlag. Revenue from magazine advertising was US$277.4 million, while total print advertising expenditure in Sweden was at US$2,402 million in 2004, 31% up on 1995. Tobacco advertising and advertising to children is banned by law, while advertising of OTC drugs and alcohol is restricted.
4
In 2005 it was estimated that Internet penetration stood at 75% of the population, up from 46% in 2000. Broadband penetration currently stands at around 20%.
Table 2 Sweden: Advertising and Print Media Trends, 2000-2004 Advertising media Above-the-line advertising (media sales) Total advertising expenditure (US$ million) Print advertising expenditure (US$ million) Newspaper advertising expenditure (US$ million) Magazine advertising expenditure (US$ million) Outdoor advertising expenditure (US$ million) Print's share of advertising expenditure (%) Internet advertising expenditure (US$ million) Newspaper trends Number of newspaper titles Newspaper circulation ('000s) Magazine trends Number of consumer titles Number of business-to-business titles
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2,124.6 1,506.2 1,128.3
1,688.1 1,204.9 901.6
1,722.0 1,202.1 892.5
2,069.7 1,432.5 1,076.1
2,402.6 1,641.6 1,237.3
285.3 92.6 70.9 113.2
231.5 71.8 71.4 86.6
227.7 81.9 69.8 109.5
254.4 102.0 69.2 131.5
277.4 126.9 68.3 170.7
205 6,680
205 5,790
209 6,377
210 6,359
210 6,175
189 325
181 300
182 321
182 322
200 320
Source: World Advertising Trends, World Press Trends, World Magazine Trends
5
Figure 2 Sweden: Trends in Internet Usage, 2000-2005 Internet users (%)
Broadband penetration (%)
80
75.2 68
70 61.6
% population
60 50
55.7 50.4 45.6
40 30 20.3
20 10
10.7
8.1
5.4
14.5
0 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Source: Pira International Ltd calculations from Internetworldstats.com (www.Internetworldstats.com); OECD (broadband penetration)
PRINT MARKET TRENDS The Swedish print market was valued at SEK44.7 billion (US$5.99 billion) in 2005, projected to grow by 2.2% in absolute terms in 2006 but by just 0.1% in real terms, excluding the impact of inflation. During the period 2001-2006, the market grew at an average annual rate of 1.4% in absolute terms but declined 0.1% in real terms.
Table 3 Sweden: Print Market Trends, 2001-2006
SEK million, current prices SEK million, constant 2005 prices US$ million, current prices
2001
2005
2006p
42,529.7 44,968.5
44,650.2 44,650.2
$4,123.7
$5,993.6
Note: p=projected Source: Pira International Ltd
6
45,649.0 44,707.1
% change 20052006p 2.2 0.1
CAGR (%) 20012006p 1.4 -0.1
$5,808.7
-3.1
7.1
Heaset represents the single largest segment of the Swedish market across print processes, with printing output valued at SEK10.7 billion in 2005, projected to grow by 2.2% in absolute terms in 2006. Sheetfed is the next largest component of offset litho printing with output at SEK10.1 billion and coldset web offset losing market share. The fastest growing areas of the market are Electrophotography and inkjet at SEK2.30 billion and SEK1.28 billion respectively in 2005, with screen and letterpress losing market share.
Table 4 Sweden: Print Market Trends by Print Process, 2001-2006 (SEK million, current prices) Process
Offset litho Sheetfed Web Coldset Heatset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Other Total
2001
2005
2006p
% change 2005-2006p
29,309.0 9,911.1 19,397.9 9,172.3 10,225.6 4,861.2 4,285.7 1,377.2 104.4 816.8 784.1 991.3 42,529.7
29,318.3 10,075.0 19,243.3 8,538.6 10,704.7 4,558.9 4,827.4 1,344.4 84.0 2,300.5 1,277.6 939.2 44,650.2
29,890.4 10,293.3 19,597.1 8,619.7 10,977.4 4,601.7 4,966.6 1,166.9 81.4 2,422.8 1,381.1 1,138.1 45,649.0
2.0 2.2 1.8 1.0 2.5 0.9 2.9 -13.2 -3.1 5.3 8.1 21.2 2.2
Note: p=projected Source: Pira International Ltd
7
CAGR (%) 20012006p 0.4 0.8 0.2 -1.2 1.4 -1.1 3.0 -3.3 -4.9 24.3 12.0 2.8 1.4
Table 5 Sweden: Print Market Trends by Print Process, 2001-2006 (US$ million, current prices) Process Offset litho Sheetfed Web Coldset Heatset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Other Total
2001
2005
2006p
$2,841.8 961.0 1,880.8 889.3 991.5 471.3 415.5 133.5 10.1 79.2 76.0 96.1 $4,123.7
$3,935.5 1,352.4 2,583.1 1,146.2 1,436.9 612.0 648.0 180.5 11.3 308.8 171.5 126.1 $5,993.6
$3,803.4 1,309.8 2,493.6 1,096.8 1,396.8 585.6 632.0 148.5 10.4 308.3 175.7 144.8 $5,808.7
% change 2005-2006p -3.4 -3.2 -3.5 -4.3 -2.8 -4.3 -2.5 -17.7 -8.1 -0.2 2.5 14.9 -3.1
CAGR (%) 2001-2006p 6.0 6.4 5.8 4.3 7.1 4.4 8.7 2.1 0.5 31.2 18.2 8.5 7.1
Note: p=projected Source: Pira International Ltd
Across end-use areas, packaging represents the single largest product sector with sales of SEK8.19 billion in 2005, projected to grow strongly during 2006. Other key fast-growth areas during 2006 include advertising sectors such as direct mail and inserts, as well as labels.
8
Table 6 Sweden: Print Market Trends by Product Sector, 2001-2006 (SEK million, current prices) Product Books Catalogs Directories Magazines Newspapers Direct mail Brochures & pamphlets, other promotional print* Inserts Coupons, tickets & tape printing Posters & banners** Business forms Financial & legal printing*** Packaging - Corrugated & solid fiber - Cartons - Flexibles Labels Others Total Packaging - Consumer packaging - Industrial packaging
2001
2005
2006p 3,446.2 560.3 131.1 2,681.4 9,017.0 1,350.9 1,321.1
% change 2005-2006p 2.3 1.2 -0.8 3.0 1.4 5.3 4.1
CAGR (%) 2001-2006p 0.3 -0.7 -2.3 2.0 -0.9 3.1 1.7
3,391.4 579.2 147.0 2,429.2 9,414.8 1,160.4 1,213.4
3,370.4 553.5 132.2 2,602.1 8,888.6 1,283.2 1,268.9
381.3 96.1
427.7 103.4
451.5 108.2
5.6 4.7
3.4 2.4
464.2 299.0 1,074.8 6,359.9 2,965.6 1,148.0 2,246.3 1,109.6 14,409.4 42,529.7
481.2 289.0 1,065.6 7,251.9 3,471.5 1,443.9 2,336.6 1,263.9 15,668.7 44,650.2
500.1 292.9 1,091.6 8,188.2 3,805.5 1,605.2 2,777.4 1,333.3 15,175.2 45,649.0
3.9 1.3 2.4 12.9 9.6 11.2 18.9 5.5 -3.1 2.2
1.5 -0.4 0.3 5.2 5.1 6.9 4.3 3.7 1.0 1.4
6,359.9 3,131.1 3,228.8
7,251.9 3,534.8 3,717.1
8,188.2 4,059.0 4,129.2
12.9 14.8 11.1
5.2 5.3 5.0
Note: p=projected; *excl. financial publications, etc; *plus other point-of-sale advertising materials; ***inc. financial reports, etc Source: Pira International Ltd
9
Table 7 Sweden: Print Market Trends by Product Sector, 2001-2006 (US$ million, current prices) Product Books Catalogs Directories Magazines Newspapers Direct mail Brochures & pamphlets, other promotional print* Inserts Coupons, tickets & tape printing Posters & banners** Business forms Financial & legal printing*** Packaging - Corrugated & solid fiber - Cartons - Flexibles Labels Others Total Packaging - Consumer packaging - Industrial packaging
2001
2005
2006p $438.5 71.3 16.7 341.2 1,147.4 171.9 168.1
% change 2005-2006p -3.1 -4.0 -6.0 -2.3 -3.8 -0.2 -1.3
CAGR (%) 2001-2006p 5.9 4.9 3.2 7.7 4.7 8.8 7.4
$328.8 56.2 14.2 235.5 912.9 112.5 117.7
$452.4 74.3 17.7 349.3 1,193.2 172.2 170.3
37.0 9.3
57.4 13.9
57.5 13.8
0.1 -0.8
9.2 8.1
45.0 29.0 104.2 616.7 287.5 111.3 217.8 107.6 1,397.1 $4,123.7
64.6 38.8 143.0 973.5 466.0 193.8 313.6 169.7 2,103.3 $5,993.6
63.6 37.3 138.9 1,041.9 484.2 204.3 353.4 169.7 1,931.0 $5,808.7
-1.5 -3.9 -2.9 7.0 3.9 5.4 12.7 0.0 -8.2 -3.1
7.2 5.2 5.9 11.1 11.0 12.9 10.2 9.5 6.7 7.1
$616.7 303.6 313.1
$973.5 474.5 499.0
$1,041.9 516.5 525.4
7.0 8.9 5.3
11.1 11.2 10.9
Note: p=projected; *excl. financial publications, etc; *plus other point-of-sale advertising materials; ***inc. financial reports, etc Source: Pira International Ltd
MACHINERY, INK, CONSUMABLES AND SUBSTRATES Given the speed of product development and the rapid pace of technology transfer, most of the key developments for printing presses and processes over the next five years will be seen in all of the main regions of the world, despite the fact that the rate of adoption varies between developed and developing regions.
10
Table 8 Sweden: Printing Machinery (US$ million, current prices) Sector Sheetfed offset Coldset web offset Heatset web offset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Spares Prepress - Film imagesetters - Platesetters Postpress Total
58.2 26.6 32.1 11.9 15.7 7.0 0.5 10.4 11.2 29.2 17.0
% change 2005-06 -3.1 -3.3 -0.3 -5.1 8.2 -21.5 -12.4 13.7 10.8 12.4 3.7
0.7 16.3 16.1 235.9
-17.0 4.8 5.7 1.2
2006
56.5 25.2 32.9 11.2 16.3 3.1 0.2 13.5 16.6 28.5 18.1
% change 2006-11 -3.0 -5.3 2.4 -5.4 4.1 -55.6 -61.9 29.7 47.8 -2.2 6.7
0.4 17.6 16.9 239.0
-34.4 8.4 4.5 1.3
2011
Source: Pira International Ltd
Table 9 Sweden: Printing Machinery (SEK million, current prices) Sector Sheetfed offset Coldset web offset Heatset web offset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Spares Prepress - Film imagesetters - Platesetters Postpress Total
432.8 197.9 238.7 88.2 116.6 52.3 3.7 77.3 83.5 216.7 126.0
% change 2005-06 -3.3 -3.5 -0.5 -5.4 8.0 -21.7 -12.6 13.4 10.5 12.2 3.5
5.0 121.0 119.9 1,753.7
-17.2 4.6 5.5 0.9
2006
Source: Pira International Ltd
11
419.8 187.4 244.5 83.5 121.4 23.3 1.4 100.3 123.4 212.0 134.5
% change 2006-11 -3.0 -5.3 2.4 -5.4 4.1 -55.6 -61.9 29.7 47.8 -2.2 6.7
3.3 131.2 125.3 1,776.6
-34.4 8.4 4.5 1.3
2011
Table 10 Sweden: Printing Consumables (US$ million, current prices) Sector Graphic arts film All aluminum plates - Metal CtP - Conventional Polyester/paper Flexo plates Total
13.0
% change 2005-06 -8.7
48.3 31.7 16.6 2.9 3.8 67.9
32.0 34.5 27.4 19.8 7.7 19.8
2006
8.4
% change 2006-11 -35.0
68.7 51.7 17.0 3.1 4.2 84.4
42.3 63.1 2.6 7.6 10.6 24.3
2011
Source: Pira International Ltd
Table 11 Sweden: Printing Consumables (SEK million, current prices) Sector Graphic arts film All aluminum plates - Metal CtP - Conventional Polyester/paper Flexo plates Total
96.3
% change 2005-06 -8.9
358.8 235.6 123.3 21.6 28.0 504.7
31.7 34.2 27.1 19.5 7.5 19.5
2006
62.6
% change 2006-11 -35.0
510.8 384.3 126.5 23.2 31.0 627.5
42.3 63.1 2.6 7.6 10.6 24.3
2011
Source: Pira International Ltd
Table 12 Sweden: Printing Inks (US$ million, current prices) Sector Sheetfed offset Coldset web offset Heatset web offset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Other Total
2006 48.9 40.9 52.1 21.9 23.6 5.5 0.4 12.8 8.3 5.0 219.4
% change 2005-06 4.7 3.5 5.1 3.5 5.4 -11.0 -0.7 7.9 26.2 3.2 4.9
Source: Pira International Ltd
12
2011 50.5 38.3 55.7 20.7 27.2 4.7 0.3 37.7 14.4 5.1 254.6
% change 2006-11 3.4 -6.5 6.9 -5.8 15.3 -15.7 -22.4 195.2 74.2 3.8 16.0
Table 13 Sweden: Printing Inks (SEK million, current prices) Sector Sheetfed offset Coldset web offset Heatset web offset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Other Total
2006 363.4 304.3 387.6 163.0 175.6 41.2 2.9 94.8 61.4 36.9 1,631.1
% change 2005-06 4.5 3.2 4.9 3.2 5.2 -11.2 -0.9 7.7 25.9 3.0 4.6
2011 375.7 284.7 414.1 153.6 202.5 34.8 2.2 280.0 107.0 38.3 1,892.8
% change 2006-11 3.4 -6.5 6.9 -5.8 15.3 -15.7 -22.4 195.2 74.2 3.8 16.0
Source: Pira International Ltd
Table 14 Sweden: Printing Substrates (US$ million, current prices) Sector Uncoated mechanical Coated mechanical Uncoated woodfree Coated woodfree Newsprint Packaging paper & board Other paper Films Foils Other Packaging substrates Total
118.0 169.1 279.3 205.3 372.6
% change 2005-06 1.1 3.9 1.2 3.1 0.3
442.7 83.5 411.6 211.4 230.0 2,523.5
2006
Source: Pira International Ltd
13
123.2 197.0 293.3 232.2 377.3
% change 2006-11 4.4 16.5 5.0 13.1 1.3
2.4 2.1 3.6 3.6
504.4 90.6 498.6 256.0
13.9 8.5 21.1 21.1
2.1 2.3
249.6 2,822.1
8.5 11.8
2011
Table 15 Sweden: Printing Substrates (SEK million, current prices) Sector Uncoated mechanical Coated mechanical Uncoated woodfree Coated woodfree Newsprint Packaging paper & board Other paper Films Foils Other Packaging substrates Total
877.0 1,256.6 2,075.9 1,526.1 2,769.8
% change 2005-06 0.9 3.7 1.0 2.9 0.1
3,291.0 620.6 3,059.3 1,571.1 1,710.0 18,757.5
2006
915.8 1,464.2 2,180.0 1,725.8 2,804.6
% change 2006-11 4.4 16.5 5.0 13.1 1.3
2.2 1.8 3.4 3.4
3,749.3 673.3 3,706.0 1,903.2
13.9 8.5 21.1 21.1
1.8 2.1
1,855.3 20,977.4
8.5 11.8
2011
Source: Pira International Ltd
For more comprehensive information about the global printing industry, please refer to the three PRIMIR reports “World Wide Market for Print” (Phase I, Phase II and Final). Visit http://www.primir.org/past_primir_studies.html for descriptions, tables of contents, and ordering information.
14
1899 Preston White Drive, Reston, Virginia 20191 (703) 264-7200 © PRIMIR/NPES 2008
INTRODUCTION In today’s global business, print faces constant change and multinational challenges. In order to react intelligently and be proactive printing industry business leaders urgently need worldwide data to reference when making internationally-based business decisions. PRIMIR recently released a series of three reports on the “World Wide Market for Print.” Pira International was commissioned to investigate the key global print markets. This study identified 51 country markets that make up 99% of the global commercial printing industry. The series of reports detail social and economic climate in each region, demographic profiles, advertising trends, internet usage/adoption, print markets and applications, print process share, and market sizing for presses, equipment, consumables and paper. Forecasts are provided through 2011. The report that follows is a summary of data and information from all three reports pertaining to this specific country. Note: Unless otherwise noted, the data is presented in U.S. Dollars, taking into account forecast rates for GDP growth and inflation, constant 2006 exchange rates have been applied. The final report includes a database where statistics are provided for both current and constant U.S. Dollars as well as in local currency (both current and constant).
SWEDEN - OVERVIEW Located in northern Europe between Norway and Finland, Sweden is the largest country in Scandinavia. Sweden is one of the larger countries in Western Europe, at almost twice the size of the UK. Its current population is approximately nine million, most of whom live in the warmer south of the country. Literacy levels are high at 99%, with 100% of the population completing primary level education and 100% completing secondary level education in 2003. Life expectancy is 78.6 years for men and 83 for women. Overall GDP in 2006 is projected at US$359 billion, with GDP per capita at US$39,648.
Sweden is a constitutional monarchy and its present constitution was adopted in 1975. The monarch does not have executive power, the role is symbolic and ceremonial only. The Swedish parliament is unicameral – the Rikstag has 349 seats, and its members are elected for a four-year term. Executive power is held 1
by the cabinet, which is comprised of 20 ministers and the prime minister. The current Head of State is King Carl XVI Gustaf and the Prime Minister is Göran Persson of the Swedish Social Democrat Workers Party, who has been Prime Minister since 1996. The political make up since the 2002 election is as follows: Social Democrats – 39.8%, Moderate Party – 15.2%, Liberal Party – 13.3%, Christian Democrats – 9.1%, Left Party – 8.3%, Center Party – 6.1% and Green Party – 4.6%.
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS The population of Sweden is estimated at nine million, 49.6% of whom are male and 50.4% female. Population projections over the coming years show an expected increase in the populace of approximately 1.01 million in the next 45 years, bringing the number of Swedish inhabitants up to 10.05 million by 2050. This represents an increase of 11.8% over this time. In common with other western countries, Sweden has an aging population, which is an issue that, although not as serious as in other countries, will need to be addressed for economic and social reasons. The median age of the population today is 40.1 years and this is forecast to increase to 43.9 by 2050; 23.4% of the population is currently over the age of 60 and this is forecast to increase to 30.9% by 2050.
2
Figure 1 Sweden: Long-term Demographic Trends by Age Group, 2000-2050 0-14
15-64
65+
Total population
70
10,200 10,054
10,000
60 9,800
% population
64.3
9,600
60.9 40
9,400
59.2
9,200 30 20
18.4
24.7
22.1
8,877 17.0
8,800
16.1
8,600
17.3
10
9,000
Total population ('000s)
50
9,650
8,400 0
8,200 2000
2025
2050
Source: United Nations
ECONOMIC TRENDS In 2006 total GDP in Sweden is projected to be US$359 billion, with GDP growth standing at 3.5%, up from 2.7% in 2005, and a figure of 2.4% is forecast for 2007. Inflation levels are fairly stable, rising to around 2% in 2006. Sweden is an industrialized country, with significant natural resources. Industry makes up 29% of GDP, services 69% and agriculture 2%. There was a severe recession in the early 90s but in recent years the economy has performed well, with strong growth, increasing productivity levels, low inflation and a government budget surplus. Export focus has now shifted to IT, telecommunications and services products from the more traditional products of paper, pulp and steel. The prognosis for the economy remains favorable, however risk factors include continuing high unemployment and external factors such as rising oil prices. Sweden is a member of the European Union but has elected not to be a part of the Euro currency zone.
3
Table 1 Sweden: Key Economic Indicators, 2003-2007 Indicator Population ('000s) Exchange rate (=US$1) Purchasing power parity (=US$1) GDP (local currency, millions, current prices) GDP (local currency, millions, constant 2000 prices) GDP (current, US$ million) GDP, PPP (current, US$ million) GDP per capita (US$) GDP per capita, PPP (US$) GDP growth (%) GDP deflator (%) Consumer price index (2000=100) Imports (US$ million) Exports (US$ million)
2003 8,975 8.07 10.03 2,459,413
2004 9,008 7.34 9.87 2,573,176
2005 9,041 7.45 9.72 2,673,064
2006p 9,066 7.86 9.74 2,824,909
2007f 9,092 7.90 9.78 2,956,783
2,325,385
2,411,424
2,476,532
2,563,211
2,624,728
304,854 241,761 33,967 26,937 1.7 2.0 106.6 84,199 102,407
350,664 257,042 38,928 28,535 3.7 0.8 107.0 100,782 123,295
358,819 270,516 39,688 29,921 2.7 1.1 107.5 111,230 130,162
359,463 283,802 39,648 31,303 3.5 2.1 109.8 n/a n/a
374,307 296,715 41,171 32,636 2.4 2.2 112.2 n/a n/a
Note: p=projected; f=forecast Source: Pira International, Ltd calculations from the United Nations (population data), International Monetary Fund (economic data)
THE MEDIA ENVIRONMENT There were 90 daily newspapers in print in Sweden in 2004, five of which are nationals and 85 of which are regional/local. Circulation of dailies was US$3.6 million, down 1.9% from 2000. The top selling daily is Aftonbladet which has a circulation of 444,000, followed by Dagens Nyheter with a circulation of 363,000. 2004 newspaper advertising revenue was US$1,237 million.
In 2004 there were 520 magazine titles in Sweden (200 consumer and 320 business), a decrease of 1.2% compared to 2001. Some 65% of revenue was derived from advertising and 35% from sales. The major consumer magazine publishers in 2004 included Bannier Tidskrifter and Allers, and the major business publishers include LRF and Ekonomi & Teknik Förlag. Revenue from magazine advertising was US$277.4 million, while total print advertising expenditure in Sweden was at US$2,402 million in 2004, 31% up on 1995. Tobacco advertising and advertising to children is banned by law, while advertising of OTC drugs and alcohol is restricted.
4
In 2005 it was estimated that Internet penetration stood at 75% of the population, up from 46% in 2000. Broadband penetration currently stands at around 20%.
Table 2 Sweden: Advertising and Print Media Trends, 2000-2004 Advertising media Above-the-line advertising (media sales) Total advertising expenditure (US$ million) Print advertising expenditure (US$ million) Newspaper advertising expenditure (US$ million) Magazine advertising expenditure (US$ million) Outdoor advertising expenditure (US$ million) Print's share of advertising expenditure (%) Internet advertising expenditure (US$ million) Newspaper trends Number of newspaper titles Newspaper circulation ('000s) Magazine trends Number of consumer titles Number of business-to-business titles
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2,124.6 1,506.2 1,128.3
1,688.1 1,204.9 901.6
1,722.0 1,202.1 892.5
2,069.7 1,432.5 1,076.1
2,402.6 1,641.6 1,237.3
285.3 92.6 70.9 113.2
231.5 71.8 71.4 86.6
227.7 81.9 69.8 109.5
254.4 102.0 69.2 131.5
277.4 126.9 68.3 170.7
205 6,680
205 5,790
209 6,377
210 6,359
210 6,175
189 325
181 300
182 321
182 322
200 320
Source: World Advertising Trends, World Press Trends, World Magazine Trends
5
Figure 2 Sweden: Trends in Internet Usage, 2000-2005 Internet users (%)
Broadband penetration (%)
80
75.2 68
70 61.6
% population
60 50
55.7 50.4 45.6
40 30 20.3
20 10
10.7
8.1
5.4
14.5
0 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Source: Pira International Ltd calculations from Internetworldstats.com (www.Internetworldstats.com); OECD (broadband penetration)
PRINT MARKET TRENDS The Swedish print market was valued at SEK44.7 billion (US$5.99 billion) in 2005, projected to grow by 2.2% in absolute terms in 2006 but by just 0.1% in real terms, excluding the impact of inflation. During the period 2001-2006, the market grew at an average annual rate of 1.4% in absolute terms but declined 0.1% in real terms.
Table 3 Sweden: Print Market Trends, 2001-2006
SEK million, current prices SEK million, constant 2005 prices US$ million, current prices
2001
2005
2006p
42,529.7 44,968.5
44,650.2 44,650.2
$4,123.7
$5,993.6
Note: p=projected Source: Pira International Ltd
6
45,649.0 44,707.1
% change 20052006p 2.2 0.1
CAGR (%) 20012006p 1.4 -0.1
$5,808.7
-3.1
7.1
Heaset represents the single largest segment of the Swedish market across print processes, with printing output valued at SEK10.7 billion in 2005, projected to grow by 2.2% in absolute terms in 2006. Sheetfed is the next largest component of offset litho printing with output at SEK10.1 billion and coldset web offset losing market share. The fastest growing areas of the market are Electrophotography and inkjet at SEK2.30 billion and SEK1.28 billion respectively in 2005, with screen and letterpress losing market share.
Table 4 Sweden: Print Market Trends by Print Process, 2001-2006 (SEK million, current prices) Process
Offset litho Sheetfed Web Coldset Heatset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Other Total
2001
2005
2006p
% change 2005-2006p
29,309.0 9,911.1 19,397.9 9,172.3 10,225.6 4,861.2 4,285.7 1,377.2 104.4 816.8 784.1 991.3 42,529.7
29,318.3 10,075.0 19,243.3 8,538.6 10,704.7 4,558.9 4,827.4 1,344.4 84.0 2,300.5 1,277.6 939.2 44,650.2
29,890.4 10,293.3 19,597.1 8,619.7 10,977.4 4,601.7 4,966.6 1,166.9 81.4 2,422.8 1,381.1 1,138.1 45,649.0
2.0 2.2 1.8 1.0 2.5 0.9 2.9 -13.2 -3.1 5.3 8.1 21.2 2.2
Note: p=projected Source: Pira International Ltd
7
CAGR (%) 20012006p 0.4 0.8 0.2 -1.2 1.4 -1.1 3.0 -3.3 -4.9 24.3 12.0 2.8 1.4
Table 5 Sweden: Print Market Trends by Print Process, 2001-2006 (US$ million, current prices) Process Offset litho Sheetfed Web Coldset Heatset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Other Total
2001
2005
2006p
$2,841.8 961.0 1,880.8 889.3 991.5 471.3 415.5 133.5 10.1 79.2 76.0 96.1 $4,123.7
$3,935.5 1,352.4 2,583.1 1,146.2 1,436.9 612.0 648.0 180.5 11.3 308.8 171.5 126.1 $5,993.6
$3,803.4 1,309.8 2,493.6 1,096.8 1,396.8 585.6 632.0 148.5 10.4 308.3 175.7 144.8 $5,808.7
% change 2005-2006p -3.4 -3.2 -3.5 -4.3 -2.8 -4.3 -2.5 -17.7 -8.1 -0.2 2.5 14.9 -3.1
CAGR (%) 2001-2006p 6.0 6.4 5.8 4.3 7.1 4.4 8.7 2.1 0.5 31.2 18.2 8.5 7.1
Note: p=projected Source: Pira International Ltd
Across end-use areas, packaging represents the single largest product sector with sales of SEK8.19 billion in 2005, projected to grow strongly during 2006. Other key fast-growth areas during 2006 include advertising sectors such as direct mail and inserts, as well as labels.
8
Table 6 Sweden: Print Market Trends by Product Sector, 2001-2006 (SEK million, current prices) Product Books Catalogs Directories Magazines Newspapers Direct mail Brochures & pamphlets, other promotional print* Inserts Coupons, tickets & tape printing Posters & banners** Business forms Financial & legal printing*** Packaging - Corrugated & solid fiber - Cartons - Flexibles Labels Others Total Packaging - Consumer packaging - Industrial packaging
2001
2005
2006p 3,446.2 560.3 131.1 2,681.4 9,017.0 1,350.9 1,321.1
% change 2005-2006p 2.3 1.2 -0.8 3.0 1.4 5.3 4.1
CAGR (%) 2001-2006p 0.3 -0.7 -2.3 2.0 -0.9 3.1 1.7
3,391.4 579.2 147.0 2,429.2 9,414.8 1,160.4 1,213.4
3,370.4 553.5 132.2 2,602.1 8,888.6 1,283.2 1,268.9
381.3 96.1
427.7 103.4
451.5 108.2
5.6 4.7
3.4 2.4
464.2 299.0 1,074.8 6,359.9 2,965.6 1,148.0 2,246.3 1,109.6 14,409.4 42,529.7
481.2 289.0 1,065.6 7,251.9 3,471.5 1,443.9 2,336.6 1,263.9 15,668.7 44,650.2
500.1 292.9 1,091.6 8,188.2 3,805.5 1,605.2 2,777.4 1,333.3 15,175.2 45,649.0
3.9 1.3 2.4 12.9 9.6 11.2 18.9 5.5 -3.1 2.2
1.5 -0.4 0.3 5.2 5.1 6.9 4.3 3.7 1.0 1.4
6,359.9 3,131.1 3,228.8
7,251.9 3,534.8 3,717.1
8,188.2 4,059.0 4,129.2
12.9 14.8 11.1
5.2 5.3 5.0
Note: p=projected; *excl. financial publications, etc; *plus other point-of-sale advertising materials; ***inc. financial reports, etc Source: Pira International Ltd
9
Table 7 Sweden: Print Market Trends by Product Sector, 2001-2006 (US$ million, current prices) Product Books Catalogs Directories Magazines Newspapers Direct mail Brochures & pamphlets, other promotional print* Inserts Coupons, tickets & tape printing Posters & banners** Business forms Financial & legal printing*** Packaging - Corrugated & solid fiber - Cartons - Flexibles Labels Others Total Packaging - Consumer packaging - Industrial packaging
2001
2005
2006p $438.5 71.3 16.7 341.2 1,147.4 171.9 168.1
% change 2005-2006p -3.1 -4.0 -6.0 -2.3 -3.8 -0.2 -1.3
CAGR (%) 2001-2006p 5.9 4.9 3.2 7.7 4.7 8.8 7.4
$328.8 56.2 14.2 235.5 912.9 112.5 117.7
$452.4 74.3 17.7 349.3 1,193.2 172.2 170.3
37.0 9.3
57.4 13.9
57.5 13.8
0.1 -0.8
9.2 8.1
45.0 29.0 104.2 616.7 287.5 111.3 217.8 107.6 1,397.1 $4,123.7
64.6 38.8 143.0 973.5 466.0 193.8 313.6 169.7 2,103.3 $5,993.6
63.6 37.3 138.9 1,041.9 484.2 204.3 353.4 169.7 1,931.0 $5,808.7
-1.5 -3.9 -2.9 7.0 3.9 5.4 12.7 0.0 -8.2 -3.1
7.2 5.2 5.9 11.1 11.0 12.9 10.2 9.5 6.7 7.1
$616.7 303.6 313.1
$973.5 474.5 499.0
$1,041.9 516.5 525.4
7.0 8.9 5.3
11.1 11.2 10.9
Note: p=projected; *excl. financial publications, etc; *plus other point-of-sale advertising materials; ***inc. financial reports, etc Source: Pira International Ltd
MACHINERY, INK, CONSUMABLES AND SUBSTRATES Given the speed of product development and the rapid pace of technology transfer, most of the key developments for printing presses and processes over the next five years will be seen in all of the main regions of the world, despite the fact that the rate of adoption varies between developed and developing regions.
10
Table 8 Sweden: Printing Machinery (US$ million, current prices) Sector Sheetfed offset Coldset web offset Heatset web offset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Spares Prepress - Film imagesetters - Platesetters Postpress Total
58.2 26.6 32.1 11.9 15.7 7.0 0.5 10.4 11.2 29.2 17.0
% change 2005-06 -3.1 -3.3 -0.3 -5.1 8.2 -21.5 -12.4 13.7 10.8 12.4 3.7
0.7 16.3 16.1 235.9
-17.0 4.8 5.7 1.2
2006
56.5 25.2 32.9 11.2 16.3 3.1 0.2 13.5 16.6 28.5 18.1
% change 2006-11 -3.0 -5.3 2.4 -5.4 4.1 -55.6 -61.9 29.7 47.8 -2.2 6.7
0.4 17.6 16.9 239.0
-34.4 8.4 4.5 1.3
2011
Source: Pira International Ltd
Table 9 Sweden: Printing Machinery (SEK million, current prices) Sector Sheetfed offset Coldset web offset Heatset web offset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Spares Prepress - Film imagesetters - Platesetters Postpress Total
432.8 197.9 238.7 88.2 116.6 52.3 3.7 77.3 83.5 216.7 126.0
% change 2005-06 -3.3 -3.5 -0.5 -5.4 8.0 -21.7 -12.6 13.4 10.5 12.2 3.5
5.0 121.0 119.9 1,753.7
-17.2 4.6 5.5 0.9
2006
Source: Pira International Ltd
11
419.8 187.4 244.5 83.5 121.4 23.3 1.4 100.3 123.4 212.0 134.5
% change 2006-11 -3.0 -5.3 2.4 -5.4 4.1 -55.6 -61.9 29.7 47.8 -2.2 6.7
3.3 131.2 125.3 1,776.6
-34.4 8.4 4.5 1.3
2011
Table 10 Sweden: Printing Consumables (US$ million, current prices) Sector Graphic arts film All aluminum plates - Metal CtP - Conventional Polyester/paper Flexo plates Total
13.0
% change 2005-06 -8.7
48.3 31.7 16.6 2.9 3.8 67.9
32.0 34.5 27.4 19.8 7.7 19.8
2006
8.4
% change 2006-11 -35.0
68.7 51.7 17.0 3.1 4.2 84.4
42.3 63.1 2.6 7.6 10.6 24.3
2011
Source: Pira International Ltd
Table 11 Sweden: Printing Consumables (SEK million, current prices) Sector Graphic arts film All aluminum plates - Metal CtP - Conventional Polyester/paper Flexo plates Total
96.3
% change 2005-06 -8.9
358.8 235.6 123.3 21.6 28.0 504.7
31.7 34.2 27.1 19.5 7.5 19.5
2006
62.6
% change 2006-11 -35.0
510.8 384.3 126.5 23.2 31.0 627.5
42.3 63.1 2.6 7.6 10.6 24.3
2011
Source: Pira International Ltd
Table 12 Sweden: Printing Inks (US$ million, current prices) Sector Sheetfed offset Coldset web offset Heatset web offset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Other Total
2006 48.9 40.9 52.1 21.9 23.6 5.5 0.4 12.8 8.3 5.0 219.4
% change 2005-06 4.7 3.5 5.1 3.5 5.4 -11.0 -0.7 7.9 26.2 3.2 4.9
Source: Pira International Ltd
12
2011 50.5 38.3 55.7 20.7 27.2 4.7 0.3 37.7 14.4 5.1 254.6
% change 2006-11 3.4 -6.5 6.9 -5.8 15.3 -15.7 -22.4 195.2 74.2 3.8 16.0
Table 13 Sweden: Printing Inks (SEK million, current prices) Sector Sheetfed offset Coldset web offset Heatset web offset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Other Total
2006 363.4 304.3 387.6 163.0 175.6 41.2 2.9 94.8 61.4 36.9 1,631.1
% change 2005-06 4.5 3.2 4.9 3.2 5.2 -11.2 -0.9 7.7 25.9 3.0 4.6
2011 375.7 284.7 414.1 153.6 202.5 34.8 2.2 280.0 107.0 38.3 1,892.8
% change 2006-11 3.4 -6.5 6.9 -5.8 15.3 -15.7 -22.4 195.2 74.2 3.8 16.0
Source: Pira International Ltd
Table 14 Sweden: Printing Substrates (US$ million, current prices) Sector Uncoated mechanical Coated mechanical Uncoated woodfree Coated woodfree Newsprint Packaging paper & board Other paper Films Foils Other Packaging substrates Total
118.0 169.1 279.3 205.3 372.6
% change 2005-06 1.1 3.9 1.2 3.1 0.3
442.7 83.5 411.6 211.4 230.0 2,523.5
2006
Source: Pira International Ltd
13
123.2 197.0 293.3 232.2 377.3
% change 2006-11 4.4 16.5 5.0 13.1 1.3
2.4 2.1 3.6 3.6
504.4 90.6 498.6 256.0
13.9 8.5 21.1 21.1
2.1 2.3
249.6 2,822.1
8.5 11.8
2011
Table 15 Sweden: Printing Substrates (SEK million, current prices) Sector Uncoated mechanical Coated mechanical Uncoated woodfree Coated woodfree Newsprint Packaging paper & board Other paper Films Foils Other Packaging substrates Total
877.0 1,256.6 2,075.9 1,526.1 2,769.8
% change 2005-06 0.9 3.7 1.0 2.9 0.1
3,291.0 620.6 3,059.3 1,571.1 1,710.0 18,757.5
2006
915.8 1,464.2 2,180.0 1,725.8 2,804.6
% change 2006-11 4.4 16.5 5.0 13.1 1.3
2.2 1.8 3.4 3.4
3,749.3 673.3 3,706.0 1,903.2
13.9 8.5 21.1 21.1
1.8 2.1
1,855.3 20,977.4
8.5 11.8
2011
Source: Pira International Ltd
For more comprehensive information about the global printing industry, please refer to the three PRIMIR reports “World Wide Market for Print” (Phase I, Phase II and Final). Visit http://www.primir.org/past_primir_studies.html for descriptions, tables of contents, and ordering information.
14
