Despite Decades of Uncertainty, the Historical Trend of the Stock Market Has Been Positive. Today .... To quote Warren Buffett, âFor investors as a whole, returns ...
Over 40 Years of Reliable Investing™
The Successful Investor Mastering Investor Behavior That Builds Long-Term Wealth
Table of Contents The Successful Investor
Uncertainty is the Rule, Not the Exception
Focus on What is Important and Knowable
Expect Periods of Disappointment
Engage in Healthy Investor Behavior
Historically, Periods of Low Returns Were Followed by Periods of Higher Returns
The Seven Timeless Strategies For the Successful Investor
The Successful Investor The Davis family is one of the most successful investment stories in American history, having accumulated a fortune of more than $2 billion1 through buy and hold investing for over 60 years and three generations of portfolio management. Starting in 1947, Shelby Cullom Davis, a former insurance commissioner, invested $100,000 in durable, well-managed businesses at value prices and compounded his fortune into over $800 million by the early 1990s.2 With the aim of offering his father’s investment discipline to a greater diversity of investors, son Shelby M.C. Davis founded Davis Advisors in 1969 and created one of the most distinguished track records of any manager on Wall Street. Today, the Davis family investment fortune is managed by Portfolio Managers Christopher C. Davis, Kenneth Charles Feinberg and Andrew A. Davis. Shelby Cullom Davis
While many would attribute the Davis family’s extraordinary success to investment selection, this tells only part of the story. The other major contributor to the family’s ability to build wealth has been its adherence to a set of basic investment principles and strategies that any individual can learn and practice. Specifically, the Davises have always advocated setting realistic return expectations for equities, focusing on what’s important and knowable, engaging in healthy investor behavior, being patient, and understanding that periods of disappointment are inevitable. In the following pages, we introduce some of the time-tested principles that have guided the Davis family through both good and bad periods of market history. While not an exhaustive list, these basic lessons constitute keys to the family’s success learned over 60 years, and we hope they will serve as a useful guide in helping you achieve your ultimate financial goals.
Lessons from Over 60 Years of Success on Wall Street
As of December 31, 2009. 2Shelby Cullom Davis borrowed $100,000 in 1947 and turned it into an $800 million fortune by the year 1994. While Shelby Cullom Davis’ success forms the basis of the Davis investment discipline, this was an extraordinary achievement and other investors may not enjoy the same success.
Uncertainty is the Rule, Not the Exception Long-term investors in equities are always faced with uncertainty. In the 1970s, investors had to weather the ’73–’74 bear market, geopolitical turmoil culminating in the Iranian hostage crisis, rampant inflation, and skyrocketing energy prices. In the 1980s, investors were faced with Black Monday, the Iran-Contra scandal, an assassination attempt on Ronald Reagan, and the S&L crisis. In the 1990s, investors experienced a euphoric bull market, the repercussions from the collapse of Long-Term Capital, the Asian currency crisis, and the Russian default. Throughout the 2000s, investors dealt with the bursting of the tech bubble, an economic recession, geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East, myriad natural disasters, corporate scandals, rising energy prices, and the sub-prime mortgage crisis.
Clearly, the past 40 years have dealt long-term equity investors their share of uncertainty. But through it all, the long-term upward progress of the stock market has not been derailed, as illustrated by the chart below. In fact, since 1970, the S&P 500® Index has increased over 4,200%, which would have compounded a hypothetical $10,000 initial investment into over $430,000, a forty-fold increase. 3 As Christopher C. Davis, Davis Advisors Portfolio Manager, once remarked, “Building longterm wealth is like driving an automobile. If you narrowly focus on the stretch of road a few feet in front of your car, you risk making unnecessary adjustments and oversteering. Only when you lift your eyes to focus further down the highway will you successfully reach your destination.”
Despite Decades of Uncertainty, the Historical Trend of the Stock Market Has Been Positive S&P 500® Index
1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000
Junk Bonds, LBOs, Black Monday
400 The 1970s
Sub-Prime Debacle, Economic Uncertainty, Financial Crisis
S&L Crisis, Russian Default, Long Term Capital, Asian Contagion
Internet Bubble, Tech Wreck, Telecom Bust
Nifty-50, Inflation, ’73-’74 Bear Market
Source: Yahoo Finance. Graph represents the S&P 500® Index from January 1, 1970 through December 31, 2009. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. 3This hypothetical investment assumes an investment on January 1, 1970 through December 31, 2009. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. 2
Focus on What is Important and Knowable Shelby Davis, Founder of Davis Advisors, once stated, “If we accept that investing through uncertain times is the rule, not the exception, then the question to ask in my opinion is not whether or when to invest, but how to invest...”
By relentlessly focusing on what is both important and knowable, the Davis Large Cap Value Composite has delivered attractive results in many different market, geopolitical and economic environments throughout the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s.4
At Davis Advisors, in order to build long-term wealth for clients, our investment process focuses on what is important and knowable. Instead of focusing our research efforts on issues such as the direction of the stock market, interest rates, oil prices, and earnings, which in our opinion are all important but, unfortunately, unknowable over the short term, our research attempts to uncover such important and knowable issues as the quality of a business’ management team, the financial condition of a business, a business’ competitive moats, and the quality of its earnings.
In fact, as illustrated by the chart below, the Davis New York Venture Fund, through periods of inflation, deflation, rising interest rates, falling interest rates, bear markets, and bull markets has outperformed the S&P 500® Index for every rolling 10 year period since its inception in 1969.5 Focusing on the important and knowable can help investors build wealth over many different market, economic and political environments. As Mark Twain said, “It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.”
Davis New York Venture Fund vs. S&P 500® Index Rolling 10 Year Return Comparison Davis New York Venture Fund (Class A, without a sales charge)
S&P 500® Index
22% 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% –2%
69-78 70-79 71-80 72-81 73-82 74-83 75-84 76-85 77-86 78-87 79-88 80-89 81-90 82-91 83-92 84-93 85-94 86-95 87-96 88-97 89-98 90-99 91-00 92-01 93-02 94-03 95-04 96-05 97-06 98-07 99-08 00-09 6
4.7 6.1 13.4 10.8 11.1 16.6 19.8 21.1 21.2 20.5 20.7 20.3 15.7 19.5 18.2 17.5 16.8 17.0 17.4 21.1 20.4 18.8 20.3 14.8 11.4 12.9 14.4 11.7 10.7 8.0 1.2 2.4 6 3.3 5.9 8.5 6.5 6.7 10.7 14.8 14.3 13.9 15.3 16.3 17.5 13.9 17.6 16.2 14.9 14.4 14.9 15.3 18.0 19.2 18.2 17.4 12.9 9.3 11.1 12.1 9.1 8.4 5.9 –1.4 –1.0
As of December 31, 2009 Davis New York Venture Fund, Class A including a maximum 4.75% sales charge
The performance presented represents past performance and is not a guarantee of future results. Total return assumes reinvestment of dividends and capital gain distributions. Investment return and principal value will vary so that, when redeemed, an investor’s shares may be worth more or less than their original cost. The total annual operating expense ratio for Class A shares as of the most recent prospectus was 0.92%. The total annual operating expense ratio may vary in future years. Returns and expenses for other classes of shares will vary. Current performance may be higher or lower than the performance data quoted. For most recent month-end performance, visit davisfunds.com or call 800-279-0279. Rolling 10 year returns would be lower in some periods if a sales charge were included. See the endnotes for a description of this chart and a definition of the S&P 500® Index. 4 Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. 5Class A shares, not including a sales charge. Returns would be lower in some periods if a sales charge were included. Inception was 2/17/69. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. 6 Returns calculated from 2/17/69 through 12/31/78. 3
Be Patient Christopher C. Davis, Portfolio Manager with Davis Advisors, once remarked that “Investors repeatedly abandon a sensible wealth-building strategy just because it is not generating shortterm results, and almost without fail, give up on it at precisely the wrong time.” In other words, investors who impatiently switch in and out of investments, hoping to catch the next hot trend, stock, asset class, or geographic area, may be doing themselves more harm than good. In fact, history has shown that timing the market is difficult at best, foolhardy at worst. The benefit of a patient, long-term approach to building wealth is illustrated in the chart below, which groups 145 mutual funds into two categories based on their turnover ratio. Turnover ratio is a measure of a fund’s trading activity. A turnover ratio of 80–100% or more may
indicate that a fund is selling (or turning over) most of their holdings every year, while a turnover ratio of 20–30% might indicate a more patient, buy and hold investment approach. Though past performance is not a guarantee of future results, for these 145 mutual funds, as turnover ratio decreased, 15 year performance generally increased. While this particular study uses mutual funds, we believe its findings apply generally to all investments. At Davis Advisors, it is our belief that investors who utilize a patient, buy and hold investment approach are well positioned to build long-term wealth by taking advantage of the power of compounding. To quote Warren Buffett, “For investors as a whole, returns decrease as motion increases.”
Portfolio Managers Utilizing a Patient, Low-Turnover Investment Approach Have Rewarded Investors (1/1/95 – 12/31/09)
Davis New York Venture Fund Class A Shares
15 Year Return (without a sales charge)
Growth of Hypothetical $10,000
Source: Morningstar as of December 31, 2009. 145 Large Cap Funds’ Class A shares (excluding index funds) with at least a 15 year track record were included in this study and grouped by reported portfolio turnover. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee that in future periods low turnover funds will have higher returns than those funds with higher turnover. Returns include the reinvestment of dividends and capital gains, but do not include a sales charge. Reported figures would be lower if a sales charge were included. 7As of the most recent audited financial statement. 4
Expect Periods of Disappointment When constructing a long-term financial strategy, it is important to recognize and acknowledge that even though stocks have historically rewarded patient, long-term investors, even the best investment managers will suffer periods of disappointment. It is important to recognize that while painful and difficult, periods of disappointment are not only possible, but most likely inevitable. Investors who recognize this fact and are prepared for it may be less likely to abandon their investment strategy during such periods. Consider the cases of Charles Munger and Walter Schloss, two of the industry’s most successful money managers. Charles Munger, Warren Buffett’s partner at Berkshire Hathaway, delivered a 14 year cumulative gain of 1,156% versus only 103.3% for the S&P 500® Index. However, he underperformed the S&P 500® Index in approximately five years of his 14 year tenure. Walter Schloss studied under Benjamin Graham and recorded
a 28 year cumulative investment gain of 23,104% versus only 887% for the S&P 500® Index. However, he underperformed the S&P 500® Index in approximately eight years of his 28 year tenure. Clearly, these two legendary investors experienced periods of disappointment on the way to building stellar investment records. The chart below illustrates the percent of top performing large cap investment managers from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2009 who suffered through a three year period of underperformance, falling into the bottom half, quartile or decile of their group. As illustrated below, 96% of top quartile performing large cap money managers spent at least one three year period in the bottom half of the group; 79% spent at least one three year period in the bottom quartile and 47% spent at least one three year period in the bottom decile. Though each of the managers in the study delivered excellent longterm returns, they almost all suffered through a difficult period.
Percentage of Top Quartile Large Cap Equity Managers Whose Performance Fell Into the Bottom Half, Quartile or Decile for at Least One Three Year Period 100%
Source: Davis Advisors. 176 managers from eVestment Alliance’s large cap universe whose 10 year average annualized performance ranked in the top quartile from January 1, 2000–December 31, 2009. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. 5
Engage in Healthy Investor Behavior Maintaining a long-term investment strategy is far easier said than done, especially in the face of disappointing short-term results previously mentioned. When faced with such situations, most investors tend to engage in unhealthy investor behavior and may abandon their long-term investment strategies, chase the hot performing categories or try to time the market in some fashion. The impact of engaging in such unhealthy investor behavior is illustrated quite strikingly in the study results below. The study shows that while the average stock fund delivered an average annual return of 8.8% per year from 1990 to 2009, the average stock fund investor received an average annualized return of only 3.2% per year. While this particular study uses mutual funds and mutual fund investors as the basis for its conclusions, we believe Dalbar’s findings in this
instance apply more generally to the behavior of other investors as well, including institutions. At Davis, we believe one way to encourage healthy investor behavior is to seek out those managers 1) Who have demonstrated an ability to deliver attractive results over the long term during many different market, economic and political environments, 2) Who have acted as stewards of clients’ capital and 3) Who have communicated with clients openly and honestly. Such managers will instill the conviction necessary to engage in healthy investor behavior. Furthermore, financial professionals can help investors through the process of searching for the right managers and staying invested during the inevitable periods of underperformance. In our view, the cost of financial advice seems relatively modest when compared to the cost of self-inflicted underperformance that results from unhealthy investor behavior.
Average Stock Fund Investor Return vs. Average Stock Fund Return (1990 – 2009)
Average Annual Return 10%
Hypothetical Return of a $10,000 Investment $60,000
$30,000 4% 2% 0%
Average Stock Fund Investor
Average Stock Fund Return
Average Stock Fund Investor
Average Stock Fund Return
Source: Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior by Dalbar, Inc. (March 2010) and Lipper. Dalbar computed the “average stock fund investor” returns by using industry cash flow reports from the Investment Company Institute. The “average stock fund return” figures represent the average return for all funds listed in Lipper’s U.S. Diversified Equity fund classification model. Dalbar also measured the behavior of a “systematic equity” and “asset allocation” investor. The annualized return for these investor types was 3.4% and 2.3% respectively over the time frame measured. All Dalbar returns were computed using the S&P 500® Index. Returns assume reinvestment of dividends and capital gain distributions. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. 6
Invest Systematically For over 60 years and three generations of investing in the equity markets, the Davis family has witnessed first-hand how a disciplined, long-term commitment to equities can build wealth. Unfortunately, many investors make decisions based on emotion, which can undermine the discipline required to successfully compound wealth. For example, when the market has fallen and prices are low, fearful investors often pull money out of stocks or are reluctant to add new money. Conversely, when the market is rising and prices are high, euphoric investors will often plow more money into the market. The result of this negative behavior is that investors end up moving money into and out of stocks at precisely the wrong times. One investment strategy that can help encourage the more disciplined, healthy investor behavior required to build long-term wealth is
dollar-cost averaging (DCA). DCA is simply investing money in equal amounts at regular intervals (e.g., monthly), regardless of the market environment. For example, if one has a lump sum of $60,000 to be invested in equities, instead of investing the entire amount immediately, it is invested gradually–for example, $10,000 each month over a period of six months. If the market falls and prices drop, many investors may be tempted to pull money from stocks or be reluctant to add new money, but the DCA investor will automatically purchase more shares. Conversely, should the market rise, many investors may be tempted to aggressively plow more money into the market, but the DCA investor will automatically purchase fewer shares. The hypothetical example below illustrates how the systematic, disciplined nature of DCA encourages healthy investor behavior:
Regular Monthly Investment
$60,000 Total Hypothetical Investment Average Share Price Over Entire 6 Months: Average Purchase Price:
Number of Shares Purchased
Share prices fall. “Fearful investor” hesitates to add money when prices are low. “DCA investor” automatically purchases more shares. Share prices rise. “Euphoric investor” eager to add new money when share prices rise. “DCA investor” automatically purchases fewer shares.
This hypothetical example is for illustrative purposes only and does not represent the performance of any particular investment. Actual results will vary.
The Main Benefits of a Dollar-Cost Averaging Plan, When Strictly Adhered to, Are: n Encourages
the unemotional, disciplined, healthy investor behavior of purchasing more stocks when prices are low and fewer when prices are high. Such positive behavior can greatly improve an investor’s likelihood of reaching their financial goals.
investors, who require the capital appreciation potential that equities provide, may find dollar-cost averaging an attractive way to dip their toe into the market.
a period of good returns, many investors become overly aggressive, pouring more money into the market in an attempt to earn back what they may have lost. DCA ensures these investors enter the market in a less emotional, more disciplined manner.
Dollar-cost averaging does not assure a profit and does not protect against loss in declining markets. Dollar-cost averaging involves continuous investment regardless of fluctuating prices. You should consider your financial ability to continue purchases through periods of high or low price levels.
Historically, Periods of Low Returns Were Followed by Periods of Higher Returns After suffering through a painful period for stocks, investors often reduce their exposure to equities or abandon them altogether. While understandable, such activity often occurs at precisely the wrong time. Though extremely challenging to do, history has shown that investors should feel confident about the long-term potential of equities after a prolonged period of disappointment. Why? Because historically low prices have increased future returns and crisis has created opportunity.8 Consider the chart below which illustrates the 10 year returns for the market from 1928–2009. The red bars represent 10 year periods where the market returned less than 5%. From 1928–2009, there have been eleven 10 year periods where the market returned less than 5%.
However, in every past case, the 10 year period following each disappointing period produced satisfactory returns. Past market performance is not a guarantee of future results. For example, the –0.2% average annual return from 1928–1937 was followed by a 9.3% average annual return from 1938–1947. Furthermore, these periods of recovery averaged 13% per year and ranged from a low of 7% per year to a high of 18% per year. While we cannot know for sure what the next decade will hold, it may be far better than what we have suffered through in the last ten years.8 Investors who bear in mind that low prices increase future returns are more likely to endure hard times and be there to benefit from subsequent periods of recovery.
10 Year Returns for the Market from 1928–2009
10 Year Average Annual Return
28–37 29–38 30–39 31–40 32–41 33–42 34–43 35–44 36–45 37–46 38–47 39–48 40–49 41–50 42–51 43–52 44–53 45–54 46–55 47–56 48–57 49–58 50–59 51–60 52–61 53–62 54–63 55–64 56–65 57–66 58–67 59–68 60–69 61–70 62–71 63–72 64–73 65–74 66–75 67–76 68–77 69–78 70–79 71–80 72–81 73–82 74–83 75–84 76–85 77–86 78–87 79–88 80–89 81–90 82–91 83–92 84–93 85–94 86–95 87–96 88–97 89–98 90–99 91–00 92–01 93–02 94–03 95–04 96–05 97–06 98–07 99–08 00–09
Source: Thompson Financial, Lipper and Bloomberg. Graph represents the S&P 500® Index from 1958 through 2009. Periods before 1958 are represented by the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. 8There is no guarantee that low-priced securities will appreciate. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. 8
The Seven Timeless Strategies For the Successful Investor 1. Accept That Uncertainty is the Rule, Not the Exception When building long-term wealth, periods of uncertainty are the rule, not the exception. But, despite such uncertainty, it is important to bear in mind that the long-term progress of the stock market has been upward.
2. Focus on What is Important and Knowable Since uncertainty is the rule, not the exception, it is crucial to focus on what is important and knowable versus important and unknowable. Such an investment approach can help uncover investment opportunities during many different market, economic and political environments.
3. Be Patient At Davis, we believe a patient, buy and hold investment approach is the best way to build long-term wealth. Such an approach allows investors to filter out the noise, maintain their investment strategy and allow the power of compounding to help build wealth.
4. Expect Periods of Disappointment It is crucial to understand that even top performing investment managers will go through periods of disappointment. By recognizing this fact, you may be less likely to engage in unhealthy investor behavior and make unnecessary modifications to your long-term investment strategy.
5. Engage in Healthy Investor Behavior Having conviction in the investment managers you entrust your capital to and working with a financial professional can help investors engage in healthy investor behavior.
6. Invest Systematically Investing is an emotional experience, so develop a “roadmap” to maintain your focus and discipline necessary to build long-term wealth.
7. Historically, Periods of Low Returns Were Followed by Periods of Higher Returns Low prices can increase future returns. Investors who bear this in mind are more likely to endure hard times and be there to benefit from the subsequent periods of recovery.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee that an investor following these strategies will in fact build wealth. 9
This report is authorized for use by existing shareholders. A current Davis New York Venture Fund prospectus must accompany or precede this piece if it is distributed to prospective shareholders. You should carefully consider the Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses before investing. Read the prospectus carefully before you invest or send money. This report includes candid statements and observations regarding investment strategies and economic and market conditions; however, there is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts will prove to be correct. These comments may also include the expression of opinions that are speculative in nature and should not be relied on as statements of fact. Davis New York Venture Fund’s investment objective is long-term growth of capital. There can be no assurance that the Fund will achieve its objective. Davis New York Venture Fund invests primarily in equity securities issued by large companies with market capitalizations of at least $10 billion. Some important risks of an investment in the Fund are: market risk: the market value of shares of common stock can change rapidly and unpredictably; company risk: the market value of a common stock varies with the success or failure of the company issuing the stock; financial services risk: investing a significant portion of assets in the financial services sector may cause a fund to be more volatile as securities within the financial services sector are more prone to regulatory action in the financial services industry, more sensitive to interest rate fluctuations and are the target of increased competition; and foreign country risk: companies operating, incorporated or principally traded in foreign countries may have more fluctuation as foreign economies may not be as strong or diversified, foreign political systems may not be as stable and foreign financial reporting standards may not be as rigorous as they are in the United States. As of December 31, 2009, Davis New York Venture Fund had approximately 14.6% of assets invested in foreign companies. See the prospectus for a complete listing of the principal risks. Rolling 10 Year Performance Chart. Davis New York Venture Fund’s average annual total returns for Class A shares were compared against the returns earned by the S&P 500® Index as of December 31 of each year for all 10 year time periods from 1969 through 2009. The Fund’s returns assume an investment in Class A shares on January 1 of each year with all dividends and capital gain distributions reinvested for a 10 year period. The figures are not adjusted for any sales charge that may be imposed. If a sales charge were imposed, the reported figures would be lower. The figures shown reflect past results; past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There can be no guarantee that the Fund will continue to deliver consistent investment performance. The performance presented includes periods of bear markets when performance was negative. Equity markets are volatile and an investor may lose money. Returns for other share classes will vary. Dalbar, a Boston based financial research firm that is independent from Davis Advisors, researched the result of actively trading mutual funds in a report entitled Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior (QAIB). The Dalbar report covered the time periods from 1990–2009. The Lipper Equity LANA Universe includes all U.S. registered equity and mixed-equity mutual funds with data available through Lipper. Returns assume reinvestment of dividends and capital gain distributions. The fact that buy and hold has been a successful strategy in the past does not guarantee that it will continue to be successful in the future. Broker-dealers and other financial intermediaries may charge Davis Advisors substantial fees for selling its products and providing continuing support to clients and shareholders. For example, broker-dealers and other financial intermediaries may charge: sales commissions; distribution and service fees and record-keeping fees. In addition, payments or reimbursements may be requested for: marketing support concerning Davis Advisors’ products; placement on a list of offered products; access to sales meetings, sales representatives and management representatives; and participation in conferences or seminars, sales or training programs for invited registered representatives and other employees, client and investor events, and other dealer-sponsored events. Financial advisors should not consider Davis Advisors’ payment(s) to a financial intermediary as a basis for recommending Davis Advisors. Over the last five years, the high and low turnover ratio for Davis New York Venture Fund was 16% and 3%, respectively. The S&P 500® Index is an unmanaged index of 500 selected common stocks, most of which are listed on the New York Stock Exchange. The Index is adjusted for dividends, weighted towards stocks with large market capitalizations and represents approximately two-thirds of the total market value of all domestic common stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 actively traded blue chip stocks. The Dow Jones is calculated by adding the closing prices of the component stocks and using a divisor that is adjusted for splits and stock dividends equal to 10% or more of the market value of an issue as well as substitutions and mergers. The average is quoted in points, not in dollars. Investments cannot be made directly in an index. After April 30, 2010, this material must be accompanied by a supplement containing performance data for the most recent quarter end. Shares of the Davis Funds are not deposits or obligations of any bank, are not guaranteed by any bank, are not insured by the FDIC or any other agency, and involve investment risks, including possible loss of the principal amount invested.
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Davis Distributors, LLC, 2949 East Elvira Road, Suite 101, Tucson, AZ 85756, 800-279-0279, davisfunds.com