Water Situation Report Simple Storage Service (S3)
Monthly water situation report Anglian Region, Northern Area Summary – May 2017 Rainfall levels in the Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire area were classified as being Normal during May 2017, with totals between 111 and 148% of the long term average (LTA). Despite the high rainfall values the soil moisture deficits reported in all parts of the area increased and were between 66 and 89mm by the end of the month. Although base flows continued to drop in the rivers, monthly average flows were boosted by the rainfall in the later part of the month. Average flow volumes ranged between 51 and 117% of the LTA, resulting in flows being classified as between Normal and Below Normal. The groundwater levels remain Normal at all monitoring locations with the exception of Castlethorpe where the level is now Above Normal. Reservoir levels at all sites are close to their operating curve, with the exception of Pitsford, which is being maintained below the operating curve in order to permit engineering works to be carried out this summer.
Rainfall Despite a very dry start to the month, May 2017 proved to be a wet month with rainfall levels of between 55mm (111% of the long-term average rainfall) in the Louth, Grimsby and Ancholme zone, and 74.4mm (148% of the Long Term Average) in the Steeping Eau and Great Eau rainfall zone. May is also noteworthy as, whilst the NorthSouth divide is evident, the driest part of the area was in the north this month. The majority of rainfall occurred during the second half of May, particularly during the week of 17th – 23rd May when rainfall levels of between 35.5mm and 51.5mm were recorded. The values represent between 70 and 104% of long term average rainfall for the month. Longer-term rainfall patterns indicate that, whilst rainfall volumes have been below the relevant longterm average values for the last 3, 6 and 12 months, the rainfall totals are within the Normal category for all zones at 3 months and all but the Upper Welland and Nene for 12 months. At 6 months all zones are in the Below Average category.
Soil Moisture Deficit/Recharge Whilst the wet end to May has reduced the rate at which soil moisture deficits are growing in all zones. The deficits are now between 66 and 89mm, which is greater than the long term averages in all zones.
River Flows Despite significant rainfall in the Upper Welland and Nene zone the monitoring points along the Upper Nene still recorded Below Normal volumes of flow during May. All other monitoring locations across the river network reported Normal flows this month, although it should be noted that, with the exception of the Lym and Ancholme, all reported flow volumes were less than the long term average for the site. Baseflows have continued to recess at all locations.
Groundwater Levels Groundwater levels at all but one of the sites in the area reported a Normal depth during May. The exception being Castlethorpe Bridge, where groundwater levels are reported to be Above Normal. A number of the sites have a shown a decrease in the rate at which groundwater levels are dropping this month, as a result of the rainfall.
Reservoir Storage/Water Resource Zone Stocks Rutland reservoir continues to be operated close to the operating curve whilst Covenham and Hollowell and Raventhorpe reservoirs are considerably fuller than they were at the end of April 2017. The water level at Pitsford continue to be maintained below the operating curve in order to allow for engineering works to be undertaken this summer. All data are provisional and may be subject to revision. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those of the Environment Agency. Its officers, servants or agents accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from the interpretation or use of the information, or reliance upon views contained herein.
© Environment Agency 2017
Environmental Impact No Flood warning and no cessation notices were issued during this month.
Forward Look Probabilistic ensemble projections for river flows at key sites September 2017: In September there is no increase in the probability of flows in the River Nene being below the normal range. December 2017: In December there is no increase in the probability of flows in the River Nene being below the normal range. Probabilistic ensemble projections for groundwater levels in key aquifers September 2017: All sites are showing an increased probability of normal levels in September. March 2018: The forecast models are currently showing a spread of results, however there is a decreased likelihood of levels being exceptionally low in March. Author:
Hydrology and Operations
Contact details: 03708 506506
All data are provisional and may be subject to revision. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those of the Environment Agency. Its officers, servants or agents accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from the interpretation or use of the information, or reliance upon views contained herein.
© Environment Agency 2017
Rainfall
© Environment Agency 2017
Total Rainfall in Millimetres
Long Term Average Rainfall in Millimetres 1-Month Period for Steeping Great Eau and Long Eau
140
140
120
120
100
100
Rainfall mm
Rainfall mm
1-Month Period for Louth Grimsby and Ancholme
80 60
80 60
40
40
20
20
0
0
120
120
100
100
Rainfall mm
Rainfall mm
1-Month Period for South Forty Foot and Hobhole 140
80 60
80 60
40
40
20
20
0
0
100
100
Rainfall mm
120
80 60
80 60
40
40
20
20
0
0 Mar-17
Feb-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
Nov-16
Oct-16
Sep-16
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
May-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
Feb-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
Nov-16
Oct-16
Sep-16
May-17
120
Aug-16
May-17
140
Jul-16
Apr-17
1-Month Period for Lower Welland and Nene
140
Jun-16
Apr-17
Mar-17
Feb-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
Nov-16
Oct-16
Sep-16
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
May-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
Feb-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
Nov-16
Oct-16
Sep-16
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
1-Month Period for Upper Welland and Nene
Rainfall mm
May-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
Feb-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
Nov-16
Oct-16
Sep-16
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
May-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
Feb-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
Nov-16
Oct-16
Sep-16
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
1-Month Period for Witham to Chapel Hill 140
© Environment Agency 2017
Soil Moisture Deficit Witham 0
20
20
Soil Moisture Deficit (mm)
Soil Moisture Deficit (mm)
Ancholme - Grimsby - Louth 0
40 60 80 100
120 140
40 60 80 100
120 140
160
160 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr May Jun
Jul
Aug Sep
Oct
Nov Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Upper Welland and Nene
Jul
Aug Sep
Oct
Nov Dec
Oct
Nov
Lower Welland and Nene
0
0 20 Soil Moisture Deficit (mm)
20
Soil Moisture Deficit (mm)
Apr May Jun
40 60 80 100 120
40 60 80 100 120 140 160
140
180 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr May Jun
Min -- --
Jul
Aug Sep
Oct
Mean -- --
Nov Dec
Max -- --
Jan
Feb
Mar
2016 ------
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Dec
2017 ------
© Environment Agency 2017
River Flow
© Environment Agency 2017
Exceptionally high Below normal
Notably high Notably low
Above normal Exceptionally low
Normal ─── Latest data
Louth Weir, LUD
Rase Bishopbridge, ANCHOLME
Ranking derived from data for the period Jul-1968 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Jun-1967 to Dec-2012
2.0
3.0
1.8 2.5
1.4
Flow (cumecs)
Flow (cumecs)
1.6
1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4
2.0
1.5 1.0 0.5
0.2 Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
0.0 Aug-16
Jun-17
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Claypole, UPPER WITHAM
Partney, LYMN & STEEPING
Ranking derived from data for the period May-1959 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period May-1962 to Dec-2012
8
2.0
7
1.8 1.6
6
Flow (cumecs)
Flow (cumecs)
0.0 Aug-16
5 4 3 2
1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4
1 0 Aug-16
1.4
0.2 Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
0.0 Aug-16
Jun-17
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Fulsby and Fulsby Model combined, BAIN
Langworth, BARLINGS EAU
Ranking derived from data for the period Oct-1962 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Jul-1980 to Dec-2012
6
10 9 8
Flow (cumecs)
Flow (cumecs)
5 4
3 2
7
6 5 4 3 2
1
1 0 Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
0 Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
© Environment Agency 2017
Notably high Notably low
Above normal Exceptionally low
Ashley, WELLAND
Kates Bridge plus King Street, GLEN Ranking derived from data for the period Jan-1991 to Dec-2012
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
3 2 1
4
3 2 1
0 Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
0 Aug-16
Jun-17
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Upton Mill Total, NENE - KISLINGBURY BRANCH
St.Andrews total, NENE - BRAMPTON BRANCH
Ranking derived from data for the period Jan-1970 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Jan-1970 to Dec-2012
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
Flow (cumecs)
Flow (cumecs)
Normal ─── Latest data
Ranking derived from data for the period Oct-1970 to Dec-2012
Flow (cumecs)
Flow (cumecs)
Exceptionally high Below normal
3 3 2 2
3 3 2 2
1
1
1
1
0 Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
0 Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
© Environment Agency 2017
Groundwater Levels
© Environment Agency 2017
Above normal Exceptionally low
Normal ─── Latest data
Dunholme Rd, Scothern
Castlethorpe Bridge
Ranking derived from data for the period Nov-1979 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Nov-1996 to Dec-2012
3
22
3
21
2
Level (mAOD)
23
20 19 18 17
2 1 1
16
0
15
-1
14 Aug-16
Level (mAOD)
Notably high Notably low
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
-1 Aug-16
Jun-17
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Leasingham Exploratory
Grange Farm, Aswarby
Ranking derived from data for the period Sep-1972 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Dec-1970 to Dec-2012
21
22
19
20
Level (mAOD)
Level (mAOD)
Exceptionally high Below normal
17 15 13 11
9 Aug-16
18 16 14
12 10
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
8 Aug-16
Jun-17
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Greatford, Liffington
Hanthorpe
Ranking derived from data for the period Jul-1974 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Jul-1972 to Dec-2012
17 18 16
Level (mAOD)
Level (mAOD)
15 13 11 9 7
5 Aug-16
14 12 10
8 6
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
4 Aug-16
Jun-17
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Grainsby
Barton Horkstow Road
Ranking derived from data for the period Oct-1977 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Apr-1980 to Dec-2012
8 21
7 6
17
Level (mAOD)
Level (mAOD)
19
15 13 11 9
4 3 2
1
7 5 Aug-16
5
0
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
-1 Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
© Environment Agency 2017
Reservoir Stocks Covenham
100
100
90
90
Percentage of live capacity
Percentage of live capacity
Rutland
80 70 60 50
40 30 20 10
80 70 60 50 40 30
20 10
0
0 Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Jan
Oct
Apr
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jul
Oct
Hollowell and Ravensthorpe
100
100
90
90 Percentage of live capacity
Percentage of live capacity
Pitsford
Jul
80 70 60 50 40
30 20 10 0
80 70 60 50 40
30 20 10 0
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Normal Operating Curve ------
Jan
Apr
2015-2016 ------
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
2016-2017 ------
© Environment Agency 2017
Forward Look – River Flows
September 2017: In September there is no increase in the probability of flows in the River Nene being below the normal range. Pie charts indicate probability, based on climatology, of the surface water flow at each site being e.g. exceptionally low for the time of year. (Source: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Environment Agency) Geological map reproduced with kind permission from UK Groundwater Forum, BGS © NERC. Crown copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2017.
© Environment Agency 2017
Forward Look – River Flows
December 2017: In December there is no increase in the probability of flows in the River Nene being below the normal range.
Pie charts indicate probability, based on climatology, of the surface water flow at each site being e.g. exceptionally low for the time of year. (Source: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Environment Agency) Geological map reproduced with kind permission from UK Groundwater Forum, BGS © NERC. Crown copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2017.
© Environment Agency 2017
Forward Look - Groundwater
September 2017: All sites are showing an increased probability of normal levels in September. Pie charts indicate probability, based on climatology, of the surface water flow at each site being e.g. exceptionally low for the time of year. (Source: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Environment Agency) Geological map reproduced with kind permission from UK Groundwater Forum, BGS © NERC. Crown copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2017.
© Environment Agency 2017
Forward Look - Groundwater
March 2018: The forecast models are currently showing a spread of results, however there is a decreased likelihood of levels being exceptionally low in March. Pie charts indicate probability, based on climatology, of the surface water flow at each site being e.g. exceptionally low for the time of year. (Source: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Environment Agency) Geological map reproduced with kind permission from UK Groundwater Forum, BGS © NERC. Crown copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2017.
© Environment Agency 2017
Glossary Term
Definition
Aquifer
A geological formation able to store and transmit water.
Areal average rainfall
The estimated average depth of rainfall over a defined area. Expressed in depth of water (mm).
Artesian
The condition where the groundwater level is above ground surface but is prevented from rising to this level by an overlying continuous low permeability layer, such as clay.
Artesian borehole
Borehole where the level of groundwater is above the top of the borehole and groundwater flows out of the borehole when unsealed.
Cumecs
Cubic metres per second (m 3s-1)
Effective rainfall
The rainfall available to percolate into the soil or produce river flow. Expressed in depth of water (mm).
Flood Alert/Flood Warning
Three levels of warnings may be issued by the Environment Agency. Flood Alerts indicate flooding is possible. Flood Warnings indicate flooding is expected. Severe Flood Warnings indicate severe flooding.
Groundwater
The water found in an aquifer.
Long term average (LTA)
The arithmetic mean calculated from the historic record, usually based on the period 1961-1990. However, the period used may vary by parameter being reported on (see figure captions for details).
mAOD
Metres Above Ordnance Datum (mean sea level at Newlyn Cornwall).
MORECS
Met Office Rainfall and Evaporation Calculation System. Met Office service providing real time calculation of evapotranspiration, soil moisture deficit and effective rainfall on a 40 x 40 km grid.
Naturalised flow
River flow with the impacts of artificial influences removed. Artificial influences may include abstractions, discharges, transfers, augmentation and impoundments.
NCIC
National Climate Information Centre. NCIC area monthly rainfall totals are derived using the Met Office 5 km gridded dataset, which uses rain gauge observations.
Recharge
The process of increasing the water stored in the saturated zone of an aquifer. Expressed in depth of water (mm).
Reservoir gross capacity
The total capacity of a reservoir.
Reservoir live capacity
The capacity of the reservoir that is normally usable for storage to meet established reservoir operating requirements. This excludes any capacity not available for use (e.g. storage held back for emergency services, operating agreements or physical restrictions). May also be referred to as ‘net’ or ‘deployable’ capacity.
Soil moisture deficit (SMD)
The difference between the amount of water actually in the soil and the amount of water the soil can hold. Expressed in depth of water (mm).
Categories Exceptionally high Notably high Above normal Normal Below normal Notably low Exceptionally low
Value likely to fall within this band 5% of the time Value likely to fall within this band 8% of the time Value likely to fall within this band 15% of the time Value likely to fall within this band 44% of the time Value likely to fall within this band 15% of the time Value likely to fall within this band 8% of the time Value likely to fall within this band 5% of the time
© Environment Agency 2017
Rainfall Despite a very dry start to the month, May 2017 proved to be a wet month with rainfall levels of between 55mm (111% of the long-term average rainfall) in the Louth, Grimsby and Ancholme zone, and 74.4mm (148% of the Long Term Average) in the Steeping Eau and Great Eau rainfall zone. May is also noteworthy as, whilst the NorthSouth divide is evident, the driest part of the area was in the north this month. The majority of rainfall occurred during the second half of May, particularly during the week of 17th – 23rd May when rainfall levels of between 35.5mm and 51.5mm were recorded. The values represent between 70 and 104% of long term average rainfall for the month. Longer-term rainfall patterns indicate that, whilst rainfall volumes have been below the relevant longterm average values for the last 3, 6 and 12 months, the rainfall totals are within the Normal category for all zones at 3 months and all but the Upper Welland and Nene for 12 months. At 6 months all zones are in the Below Average category.
Soil Moisture Deficit/Recharge Whilst the wet end to May has reduced the rate at which soil moisture deficits are growing in all zones. The deficits are now between 66 and 89mm, which is greater than the long term averages in all zones.
River Flows Despite significant rainfall in the Upper Welland and Nene zone the monitoring points along the Upper Nene still recorded Below Normal volumes of flow during May. All other monitoring locations across the river network reported Normal flows this month, although it should be noted that, with the exception of the Lym and Ancholme, all reported flow volumes were less than the long term average for the site. Baseflows have continued to recess at all locations.
Groundwater Levels Groundwater levels at all but one of the sites in the area reported a Normal depth during May. The exception being Castlethorpe Bridge, where groundwater levels are reported to be Above Normal. A number of the sites have a shown a decrease in the rate at which groundwater levels are dropping this month, as a result of the rainfall.
Reservoir Storage/Water Resource Zone Stocks Rutland reservoir continues to be operated close to the operating curve whilst Covenham and Hollowell and Raventhorpe reservoirs are considerably fuller than they were at the end of April 2017. The water level at Pitsford continue to be maintained below the operating curve in order to allow for engineering works to be undertaken this summer. All data are provisional and may be subject to revision. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those of the Environment Agency. Its officers, servants or agents accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from the interpretation or use of the information, or reliance upon views contained herein.
© Environment Agency 2017
Environmental Impact No Flood warning and no cessation notices were issued during this month.
Forward Look Probabilistic ensemble projections for river flows at key sites September 2017: In September there is no increase in the probability of flows in the River Nene being below the normal range. December 2017: In December there is no increase in the probability of flows in the River Nene being below the normal range. Probabilistic ensemble projections for groundwater levels in key aquifers September 2017: All sites are showing an increased probability of normal levels in September. March 2018: The forecast models are currently showing a spread of results, however there is a decreased likelihood of levels being exceptionally low in March. Author:
Hydrology and Operations
Contact details: 03708 506506
All data are provisional and may be subject to revision. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those of the Environment Agency. Its officers, servants or agents accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from the interpretation or use of the information, or reliance upon views contained herein.
© Environment Agency 2017
Rainfall
© Environment Agency 2017
Total Rainfall in Millimetres
Long Term Average Rainfall in Millimetres 1-Month Period for Steeping Great Eau and Long Eau
140
140
120
120
100
100
Rainfall mm
Rainfall mm
1-Month Period for Louth Grimsby and Ancholme
80 60
80 60
40
40
20
20
0
0
120
120
100
100
Rainfall mm
Rainfall mm
1-Month Period for South Forty Foot and Hobhole 140
80 60
80 60
40
40
20
20
0
0
100
100
Rainfall mm
120
80 60
80 60
40
40
20
20
0
0 Mar-17
Feb-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
Nov-16
Oct-16
Sep-16
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
May-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
Feb-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
Nov-16
Oct-16
Sep-16
May-17
120
Aug-16
May-17
140
Jul-16
Apr-17
1-Month Period for Lower Welland and Nene
140
Jun-16
Apr-17
Mar-17
Feb-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
Nov-16
Oct-16
Sep-16
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
May-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
Feb-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
Nov-16
Oct-16
Sep-16
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
1-Month Period for Upper Welland and Nene
Rainfall mm
May-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
Feb-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
Nov-16
Oct-16
Sep-16
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
May-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
Feb-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
Nov-16
Oct-16
Sep-16
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
1-Month Period for Witham to Chapel Hill 140
© Environment Agency 2017
Soil Moisture Deficit Witham 0
20
20
Soil Moisture Deficit (mm)
Soil Moisture Deficit (mm)
Ancholme - Grimsby - Louth 0
40 60 80 100
120 140
40 60 80 100
120 140
160
160 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr May Jun
Jul
Aug Sep
Oct
Nov Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Upper Welland and Nene
Jul
Aug Sep
Oct
Nov Dec
Oct
Nov
Lower Welland and Nene
0
0 20 Soil Moisture Deficit (mm)
20
Soil Moisture Deficit (mm)
Apr May Jun
40 60 80 100 120
40 60 80 100 120 140 160
140
180 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr May Jun
Min -- --
Jul
Aug Sep
Oct
Mean -- --
Nov Dec
Max -- --
Jan
Feb
Mar
2016 ------
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Dec
2017 ------
© Environment Agency 2017
River Flow
© Environment Agency 2017
Exceptionally high Below normal
Notably high Notably low
Above normal Exceptionally low
Normal ─── Latest data
Louth Weir, LUD
Rase Bishopbridge, ANCHOLME
Ranking derived from data for the period Jul-1968 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Jun-1967 to Dec-2012
2.0
3.0
1.8 2.5
1.4
Flow (cumecs)
Flow (cumecs)
1.6
1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4
2.0
1.5 1.0 0.5
0.2 Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
0.0 Aug-16
Jun-17
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Claypole, UPPER WITHAM
Partney, LYMN & STEEPING
Ranking derived from data for the period May-1959 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period May-1962 to Dec-2012
8
2.0
7
1.8 1.6
6
Flow (cumecs)
Flow (cumecs)
0.0 Aug-16
5 4 3 2
1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4
1 0 Aug-16
1.4
0.2 Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
0.0 Aug-16
Jun-17
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Fulsby and Fulsby Model combined, BAIN
Langworth, BARLINGS EAU
Ranking derived from data for the period Oct-1962 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Jul-1980 to Dec-2012
6
10 9 8
Flow (cumecs)
Flow (cumecs)
5 4
3 2
7
6 5 4 3 2
1
1 0 Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
0 Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
© Environment Agency 2017
Notably high Notably low
Above normal Exceptionally low
Ashley, WELLAND
Kates Bridge plus King Street, GLEN Ranking derived from data for the period Jan-1991 to Dec-2012
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
3 2 1
4
3 2 1
0 Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
0 Aug-16
Jun-17
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Upton Mill Total, NENE - KISLINGBURY BRANCH
St.Andrews total, NENE - BRAMPTON BRANCH
Ranking derived from data for the period Jan-1970 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Jan-1970 to Dec-2012
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
Flow (cumecs)
Flow (cumecs)
Normal ─── Latest data
Ranking derived from data for the period Oct-1970 to Dec-2012
Flow (cumecs)
Flow (cumecs)
Exceptionally high Below normal
3 3 2 2
3 3 2 2
1
1
1
1
0 Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
0 Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
© Environment Agency 2017
Groundwater Levels
© Environment Agency 2017
Above normal Exceptionally low
Normal ─── Latest data
Dunholme Rd, Scothern
Castlethorpe Bridge
Ranking derived from data for the period Nov-1979 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Nov-1996 to Dec-2012
3
22
3
21
2
Level (mAOD)
23
20 19 18 17
2 1 1
16
0
15
-1
14 Aug-16
Level (mAOD)
Notably high Notably low
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
-1 Aug-16
Jun-17
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Leasingham Exploratory
Grange Farm, Aswarby
Ranking derived from data for the period Sep-1972 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Dec-1970 to Dec-2012
21
22
19
20
Level (mAOD)
Level (mAOD)
Exceptionally high Below normal
17 15 13 11
9 Aug-16
18 16 14
12 10
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
8 Aug-16
Jun-17
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Greatford, Liffington
Hanthorpe
Ranking derived from data for the period Jul-1974 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Jul-1972 to Dec-2012
17 18 16
Level (mAOD)
Level (mAOD)
15 13 11 9 7
5 Aug-16
14 12 10
8 6
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
4 Aug-16
Jun-17
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Grainsby
Barton Horkstow Road
Ranking derived from data for the period Oct-1977 to Dec-2012
Ranking derived from data for the period Apr-1980 to Dec-2012
8 21
7 6
17
Level (mAOD)
Level (mAOD)
19
15 13 11 9
4 3 2
1
7 5 Aug-16
5
0
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
-1 Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
© Environment Agency 2017
Reservoir Stocks Covenham
100
100
90
90
Percentage of live capacity
Percentage of live capacity
Rutland
80 70 60 50
40 30 20 10
80 70 60 50 40 30
20 10
0
0 Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Jan
Oct
Apr
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jul
Oct
Hollowell and Ravensthorpe
100
100
90
90 Percentage of live capacity
Percentage of live capacity
Pitsford
Jul
80 70 60 50 40
30 20 10 0
80 70 60 50 40
30 20 10 0
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Normal Operating Curve ------
Jan
Apr
2015-2016 ------
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
2016-2017 ------
© Environment Agency 2017
Forward Look – River Flows
September 2017: In September there is no increase in the probability of flows in the River Nene being below the normal range. Pie charts indicate probability, based on climatology, of the surface water flow at each site being e.g. exceptionally low for the time of year. (Source: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Environment Agency) Geological map reproduced with kind permission from UK Groundwater Forum, BGS © NERC. Crown copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2017.
© Environment Agency 2017
Forward Look – River Flows
December 2017: In December there is no increase in the probability of flows in the River Nene being below the normal range.
Pie charts indicate probability, based on climatology, of the surface water flow at each site being e.g. exceptionally low for the time of year. (Source: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Environment Agency) Geological map reproduced with kind permission from UK Groundwater Forum, BGS © NERC. Crown copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2017.
© Environment Agency 2017
Forward Look - Groundwater
September 2017: All sites are showing an increased probability of normal levels in September. Pie charts indicate probability, based on climatology, of the surface water flow at each site being e.g. exceptionally low for the time of year. (Source: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Environment Agency) Geological map reproduced with kind permission from UK Groundwater Forum, BGS © NERC. Crown copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2017.
© Environment Agency 2017
Forward Look - Groundwater
March 2018: The forecast models are currently showing a spread of results, however there is a decreased likelihood of levels being exceptionally low in March. Pie charts indicate probability, based on climatology, of the surface water flow at each site being e.g. exceptionally low for the time of year. (Source: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Environment Agency) Geological map reproduced with kind permission from UK Groundwater Forum, BGS © NERC. Crown copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2017.
© Environment Agency 2017
Glossary Term
Definition
Aquifer
A geological formation able to store and transmit water.
Areal average rainfall
The estimated average depth of rainfall over a defined area. Expressed in depth of water (mm).
Artesian
The condition where the groundwater level is above ground surface but is prevented from rising to this level by an overlying continuous low permeability layer, such as clay.
Artesian borehole
Borehole where the level of groundwater is above the top of the borehole and groundwater flows out of the borehole when unsealed.
Cumecs
Cubic metres per second (m 3s-1)
Effective rainfall
The rainfall available to percolate into the soil or produce river flow. Expressed in depth of water (mm).
Flood Alert/Flood Warning
Three levels of warnings may be issued by the Environment Agency. Flood Alerts indicate flooding is possible. Flood Warnings indicate flooding is expected. Severe Flood Warnings indicate severe flooding.
Groundwater
The water found in an aquifer.
Long term average (LTA)
The arithmetic mean calculated from the historic record, usually based on the period 1961-1990. However, the period used may vary by parameter being reported on (see figure captions for details).
mAOD
Metres Above Ordnance Datum (mean sea level at Newlyn Cornwall).
MORECS
Met Office Rainfall and Evaporation Calculation System. Met Office service providing real time calculation of evapotranspiration, soil moisture deficit and effective rainfall on a 40 x 40 km grid.
Naturalised flow
River flow with the impacts of artificial influences removed. Artificial influences may include abstractions, discharges, transfers, augmentation and impoundments.
NCIC
National Climate Information Centre. NCIC area monthly rainfall totals are derived using the Met Office 5 km gridded dataset, which uses rain gauge observations.
Recharge
The process of increasing the water stored in the saturated zone of an aquifer. Expressed in depth of water (mm).
Reservoir gross capacity
The total capacity of a reservoir.
Reservoir live capacity
The capacity of the reservoir that is normally usable for storage to meet established reservoir operating requirements. This excludes any capacity not available for use (e.g. storage held back for emergency services, operating agreements or physical restrictions). May also be referred to as ‘net’ or ‘deployable’ capacity.
Soil moisture deficit (SMD)
The difference between the amount of water actually in the soil and the amount of water the soil can hold. Expressed in depth of water (mm).
Categories Exceptionally high Notably high Above normal Normal Below normal Notably low Exceptionally low
Value likely to fall within this band 5% of the time Value likely to fall within this band 8% of the time Value likely to fall within this band 15% of the time Value likely to fall within this band 44% of the time Value likely to fall within this band 15% of the time Value likely to fall within this band 8% of the time Value likely to fall within this band 5% of the time
© Environment Agency 2017
