1273049722 597
Can tidal stream deliver 1TWh by 2020? REGEN-SW Workshop, Bristol 26th November 2008
George Gibberd, Technical Director Tidal Generation Ltd
How much is 1TWh? 1TWh = 1 x 1012 Wh Assume 35% load factor at a reasonable site A 1MW machine @ 35% LF produces: 1 x 106 x 8760 x 0.35 = 3.07 x 109 Wh p.a. Hence 1TWh p/a/ requires 326MW installed
Main considerations Resource – is enough available? Technology – are there technically and
commercially viable technologies, and are they close enough to production? Developers – do the technologies have long-term backers willing to see them through to market? Barriers - can the barriers to development be overcome – environmental, regulatory, supply chain, infrastructure etc? Challenges – marine operations Market support – how long and how much?
Build-up of installed capacity
1MWMachines / yr
60
50
40
30
20
Total machines in2020 = 250MW 10
0 2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Grid UK resource map shows the picture clearly:
tidal power is generally remote and at the extremities of the network. Overland and / or subsea inter-connectors required to harness Pentland & SW Scotland resource. This issue has been well covered in other conferences. View that OFGEM’s remit should include duty to ensure security of supply and meeting UK renewables and emissions targets.
Marine operations
Anyone who has installed a large scale prototype at a representative site knows the difficulties. Challenges are unique – mariners have avoided tidal sites for centuries precisely because of the difficulties. Beware – many consultants, contractors and selfappointed experts claim to know all about how to do it. In our experience there isn’t a great body of expertise. Dipping your toe in the water is expensive – you need backers with strong stomaches who are in the game for the long term.
Infrastructure It’s not just the turbines – significant
infrastructure is required. Ports and onshore maintenance facilities. Installation and maintenance vessels. Shoreline fabrication and load-out facilities. Sub-sea grid. Onshore network strengthening.
Supply Chain
In competition with offshore wind. Numerous critical components require bespoke development – connectors, subsea hubs. Need to get closer to Oil & Gas and avoid reinventing the wheel. But much offshore technology is not available at renewables prices. Specifications are very different and bespoke solutions required – time is needed for development. Vessels – remain difficult to source at right price. Surveying of tidal sites - not quite there yet.
Red Tape Too much legislation. Too much uncertainty. Too many constraints on a nascent industry. Device developers being asked to address
and resolve every conceivable through-life issue up front.
Crying “wolf!”
Industry must deliver soon – UK government funding started eight years ago. Cannot afford high profile failures - will damage industry by eroding government and utility confidence. Market will demand at least 2, possibly 3 credible competitors. Successful developers must have not only a good technology concept but also long-term backers, sound manufacturing support, a sound utility relationship and a good understanding of the issues. Problems will inevitably be encountered early on and developers need to have the resources to ride these problems through. Many developers will probably fail judged against these criteria.
Conclusions
1TWh/yr by 2020 is possible. There is enough resource, some technologies capable of making it, a handful of developers with the right commercial strategy. But it is by no means a certainty and from where we stand today it could ramp up or spiral down with equal probability. It will require: - greater interest by major manufacturers (utilities will follow) - a step change in infrastructure investment - resolution of many issues and barriers (some of which are outside device developers’ control)
George Gibberd, Technical Director Tidal Generation Ltd
How much is 1TWh? 1TWh = 1 x 1012 Wh Assume 35% load factor at a reasonable site A 1MW machine @ 35% LF produces: 1 x 106 x 8760 x 0.35 = 3.07 x 109 Wh p.a. Hence 1TWh p/a/ requires 326MW installed
Main considerations Resource – is enough available? Technology – are there technically and
commercially viable technologies, and are they close enough to production? Developers – do the technologies have long-term backers willing to see them through to market? Barriers - can the barriers to development be overcome – environmental, regulatory, supply chain, infrastructure etc? Challenges – marine operations Market support – how long and how much?
Build-up of installed capacity
1MWMachines / yr
60
50
40
30
20
Total machines in2020 = 250MW 10
0 2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Grid UK resource map shows the picture clearly:
tidal power is generally remote and at the extremities of the network. Overland and / or subsea inter-connectors required to harness Pentland & SW Scotland resource. This issue has been well covered in other conferences. View that OFGEM’s remit should include duty to ensure security of supply and meeting UK renewables and emissions targets.
Marine operations
Anyone who has installed a large scale prototype at a representative site knows the difficulties. Challenges are unique – mariners have avoided tidal sites for centuries precisely because of the difficulties. Beware – many consultants, contractors and selfappointed experts claim to know all about how to do it. In our experience there isn’t a great body of expertise. Dipping your toe in the water is expensive – you need backers with strong stomaches who are in the game for the long term.
Infrastructure It’s not just the turbines – significant
infrastructure is required. Ports and onshore maintenance facilities. Installation and maintenance vessels. Shoreline fabrication and load-out facilities. Sub-sea grid. Onshore network strengthening.
Supply Chain
In competition with offshore wind. Numerous critical components require bespoke development – connectors, subsea hubs. Need to get closer to Oil & Gas and avoid reinventing the wheel. But much offshore technology is not available at renewables prices. Specifications are very different and bespoke solutions required – time is needed for development. Vessels – remain difficult to source at right price. Surveying of tidal sites - not quite there yet.
Red Tape Too much legislation. Too much uncertainty. Too many constraints on a nascent industry. Device developers being asked to address
and resolve every conceivable through-life issue up front.
Crying “wolf!”
Industry must deliver soon – UK government funding started eight years ago. Cannot afford high profile failures - will damage industry by eroding government and utility confidence. Market will demand at least 2, possibly 3 credible competitors. Successful developers must have not only a good technology concept but also long-term backers, sound manufacturing support, a sound utility relationship and a good understanding of the issues. Problems will inevitably be encountered early on and developers need to have the resources to ride these problems through. Many developers will probably fail judged against these criteria.
Conclusions
1TWh/yr by 2020 is possible. There is enough resource, some technologies capable of making it, a handful of developers with the right commercial strategy. But it is by no means a certainty and from where we stand today it could ramp up or spiral down with equal probability. It will require: - greater interest by major manufacturers (utilities will follow) - a step change in infrastructure investment - resolution of many issues and barriers (some of which are outside device developers’ control)
