1273050610 692
RENEWABLE FUTURES 2007: NEW DRIVERS FOR GROWTH Winter Gardens, Weston-super-Mare 14 November 2007
Offshore Wind in the South West – the market potential to 2020 Peter Crone
Offshore Windfarm Sites
Scarweather Sands only offshore windfarm project in SW
Rounds 1 and 2 Round 1 - April 2001 •
18 projects – 30 turbines each
•
Maximum capacity – 1.7 GW
•
Likely contribution – 1.2 GW
Round 2 - December 2003 •
15 projects – 7.2 GW
•
Likely contribution – 5 GW
Total Contribution R1 and R2 – 6.2 GW
Beyond Round 2 Drivers • Energy White Paper – Generation gap 2015 – 2020 – Renewables target 15% by 2015
• EU renewables target
Generation Gap Current UK generating capacity 76 GW supplying 350 TWh annually (cap factor – 53%) • Growth in demand requires10 GW extra capacity by 2030 (5.8 GW by 2020) • LCPD1 forces closure 11 GW coal and oil by 2016 and further 4.5 GW by 2020 • 7 GW nuclear scheduled to close by 2020 • Closures total 22.5 GW by 2020
White Paper indicates 20 – 25 GW new capacity required by 2020
1. Large Combustion Plant Directive
Renewables Target Renewables contribution 2015 1 2006
2015
TWh
% of supply
TWh
% of supply
Established
6.6
1.89%
10.1
2.75%
Reference
5.7
1.63%
16.1
4.38%
Post-demonstration
1.7
0.49%
19.5
5.31%
0
0.00%
0.4
0.27%
14.0
4.01%
46.1
12.71%
Band
Emerging Technologies
Total
White Paper designed to deliver 5% primary energy from Renewables by 2020 1. Annex D, Reform of the Renewables Obligation
EU Renewables Target March 2007 European Council agreed binding target 20% overall EU energy consumption from renewables by 2020 • 20% overall requires 34% electricity from renewables • Many of 27 members lack resources • UK has 30 – 35 % of total EU wind resource
Time Table • Draft Directive in December 2007 • Spring Council 2008 – highlights issues and key principles • Directive in Q2/Q3 2009
Impact of Binding EU Targets Year/EU target
2006
2015
2020/20%
2020/25%
UK supply (TWh)
350
367
377
377
Band
% % % supply supply supply
TWh
% supply
TWh
Established
1.89%
2.75%
3.50%
13.19
4.00%
15.07
Reference
1.63%
4.38%
7.00%
26.38
8.00%
30.15
Post demo
0.49%
5.31%
19.5%
73.49
25.5%
96.10
Emerging techs
0.00%
0.27%
4.00%
15.07
5.00%
18.84
Total
4.01%
12.7%
34.0%
128.13
42.5%
160.16
20% and 25% targets require 70 TWh and 90 TWh respectively from offshore wind
Significance for Generation Gap Applying the 2006 cap factor of 53% • 128.13 TWh at a 53% cap factor equivalent to 28 GW • 160.16 TWh at a 53% cap factor equivalent to 35 GW • 92 – 114 TWh would supply the 20 – 25 GW equivalent suggested by the White Paper
Meeting the EU target would more than plug the 2020 generation gap with power from renewables
Can the 2020 EU Target be achieved? It will depend on the success of the offshore wind industry • Offshore wind provides more than half of target in both 20% and 25% scenario • 70TWh at 37% cap factor requires 23 GW offshore wind by 2020 • 90TWh at 37% cap factor requires 28 GW offshore wind by 2020 • R1 and R2 provide 6.2 GW so 17 – 22 GW of new capacity required from R3 and beyond
BWEA policy 20GW of offshore wind by 2020
The UK Offshore Wind Market to 2020 25 20 15
GW / yr Cum GW
10 5 0 O7 O8 O9 10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Significance for UK plc Meeting the target will require major investment in grid, port infrastructure and supply chain • UK offshore capacity by end 2007 – 400MW • 23 to 28 GW required by end 2020 • Market value 2007 – 2020 at £2m per MW - £46 to £56 billion (2007 prices) • Annual market by 2020 >£10 billion per year
Manufacturers and principal contractors establish UK bases from 2010 onwards?
Is 23–28GW by 2020 Possible? UK offshore wind resource • Amongst best in the world • Best in Europe
Southwest is one of the prime resource areas but: • Deep water • High tidal range in Bristol Channel
Generation Scenarios Unconstrained resource •
Up to 50m depth in English & Welsh territorial seas + REZ
•
300GW+ in 0-25m depth
•
500GW+ in 25-50m depth
• Based on areas identified by developers’ expressions of interest Q2 2007
Government Enabling the Process BERR commissioning SEAs to pave the way for a series of offshore licensing rounds to 2015 • SEA 8 already underway reporting 2009 • New SEA 9 to cover Dover to Dogger Bank extending to territorial and REZ limit? • Scoping report early December
Future Offshore Timetable October 07
Screening report
December 07
Scoping document
December 08
Environmental report
January 09
Offshore wind leasing R3
June 09
Appropriate Assessment
January 10
Lease options granted R3
January 11
Offshore wind leasing R4
January 12
Lease options granted R4
Atlantic Array •
10% of Government’s 2015 target
•
Save 2.3m tonnes of CO2 each year
• • • • • • • •
Capacity 1,500 MW Capital cost £3 billion 350 square km 350 turbines 20 km offshore Up to 50 m water depth Tidal range 8 m Offshore cable run up to 35 km
Q4 2006 Farm Energy signs agreement with National Grid to connect 1,500 MW in 2013
Future offshore wind licensing rounds provide considerable challenges but nevertheless an unprecedented opportunity for Southwest businesses.
Offshore Wind in the South West – the market potential to 2020 Peter Crone
Offshore Windfarm Sites
Scarweather Sands only offshore windfarm project in SW
Rounds 1 and 2 Round 1 - April 2001 •
18 projects – 30 turbines each
•
Maximum capacity – 1.7 GW
•
Likely contribution – 1.2 GW
Round 2 - December 2003 •
15 projects – 7.2 GW
•
Likely contribution – 5 GW
Total Contribution R1 and R2 – 6.2 GW
Beyond Round 2 Drivers • Energy White Paper – Generation gap 2015 – 2020 – Renewables target 15% by 2015
• EU renewables target
Generation Gap Current UK generating capacity 76 GW supplying 350 TWh annually (cap factor – 53%) • Growth in demand requires10 GW extra capacity by 2030 (5.8 GW by 2020) • LCPD1 forces closure 11 GW coal and oil by 2016 and further 4.5 GW by 2020 • 7 GW nuclear scheduled to close by 2020 • Closures total 22.5 GW by 2020
White Paper indicates 20 – 25 GW new capacity required by 2020
1. Large Combustion Plant Directive
Renewables Target Renewables contribution 2015 1 2006
2015
TWh
% of supply
TWh
% of supply
Established
6.6
1.89%
10.1
2.75%
Reference
5.7
1.63%
16.1
4.38%
Post-demonstration
1.7
0.49%
19.5
5.31%
0
0.00%
0.4
0.27%
14.0
4.01%
46.1
12.71%
Band
Emerging Technologies
Total
White Paper designed to deliver 5% primary energy from Renewables by 2020 1. Annex D, Reform of the Renewables Obligation
EU Renewables Target March 2007 European Council agreed binding target 20% overall EU energy consumption from renewables by 2020 • 20% overall requires 34% electricity from renewables • Many of 27 members lack resources • UK has 30 – 35 % of total EU wind resource
Time Table • Draft Directive in December 2007 • Spring Council 2008 – highlights issues and key principles • Directive in Q2/Q3 2009
Impact of Binding EU Targets Year/EU target
2006
2015
2020/20%
2020/25%
UK supply (TWh)
350
367
377
377
Band
% % % supply supply supply
TWh
% supply
TWh
Established
1.89%
2.75%
3.50%
13.19
4.00%
15.07
Reference
1.63%
4.38%
7.00%
26.38
8.00%
30.15
Post demo
0.49%
5.31%
19.5%
73.49
25.5%
96.10
Emerging techs
0.00%
0.27%
4.00%
15.07
5.00%
18.84
Total
4.01%
12.7%
34.0%
128.13
42.5%
160.16
20% and 25% targets require 70 TWh and 90 TWh respectively from offshore wind
Significance for Generation Gap Applying the 2006 cap factor of 53% • 128.13 TWh at a 53% cap factor equivalent to 28 GW • 160.16 TWh at a 53% cap factor equivalent to 35 GW • 92 – 114 TWh would supply the 20 – 25 GW equivalent suggested by the White Paper
Meeting the EU target would more than plug the 2020 generation gap with power from renewables
Can the 2020 EU Target be achieved? It will depend on the success of the offshore wind industry • Offshore wind provides more than half of target in both 20% and 25% scenario • 70TWh at 37% cap factor requires 23 GW offshore wind by 2020 • 90TWh at 37% cap factor requires 28 GW offshore wind by 2020 • R1 and R2 provide 6.2 GW so 17 – 22 GW of new capacity required from R3 and beyond
BWEA policy 20GW of offshore wind by 2020
The UK Offshore Wind Market to 2020 25 20 15
GW / yr Cum GW
10 5 0 O7 O8 O9 10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Significance for UK plc Meeting the target will require major investment in grid, port infrastructure and supply chain • UK offshore capacity by end 2007 – 400MW • 23 to 28 GW required by end 2020 • Market value 2007 – 2020 at £2m per MW - £46 to £56 billion (2007 prices) • Annual market by 2020 >£10 billion per year
Manufacturers and principal contractors establish UK bases from 2010 onwards?
Is 23–28GW by 2020 Possible? UK offshore wind resource • Amongst best in the world • Best in Europe
Southwest is one of the prime resource areas but: • Deep water • High tidal range in Bristol Channel
Generation Scenarios Unconstrained resource •
Up to 50m depth in English & Welsh territorial seas + REZ
•
300GW+ in 0-25m depth
•
500GW+ in 25-50m depth
• Based on areas identified by developers’ expressions of interest Q2 2007
Government Enabling the Process BERR commissioning SEAs to pave the way for a series of offshore licensing rounds to 2015 • SEA 8 already underway reporting 2009 • New SEA 9 to cover Dover to Dogger Bank extending to territorial and REZ limit? • Scoping report early December
Future Offshore Timetable October 07
Screening report
December 07
Scoping document
December 08
Environmental report
January 09
Offshore wind leasing R3
June 09
Appropriate Assessment
January 10
Lease options granted R3
January 11
Offshore wind leasing R4
January 12
Lease options granted R4
Atlantic Array •
10% of Government’s 2015 target
•
Save 2.3m tonnes of CO2 each year
• • • • • • • •
Capacity 1,500 MW Capital cost £3 billion 350 square km 350 turbines 20 km offshore Up to 50 m water depth Tidal range 8 m Offshore cable run up to 35 km
Q4 2006 Farm Energy signs agreement with National Grid to connect 1,500 MW in 2013
Future offshore wind licensing rounds provide considerable challenges but nevertheless an unprecedented opportunity for Southwest businesses.
