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Future Markets for Low Carbon Solutions in Buildings
Tony Norton Head of Low Carbon Development Regen SW 7th July 2008
What is Regen SW ? 1. Specialist advisor to public & private sector 2. Independent advocate for the SW renewable energy & energy efficiency business sector 3. Broker for technology acceleration projects 4. Forum for discussion between regional bodies and the sector
Low Carbon New Development Programme Objectives Support construction sector learning
Identify and address barriers
Support 5 low carbon developments
Boost installation MW of onsite generation
Achieve early learning, uptake and jobs in onsite RE
Low Carbon Development Timetable Residential Developments 2008
2009
2010 Level 3 25%
2011
2012
Level 3 - Level 3 regulated
2013
2014
2015
Level 4 -44%
Level 4 Level 4 regulated
Level 6 Level 6 zero carb Level 6 Level 6 zero carb
National
2006 BR
2006 BR
Level 4 -44%
Level 4 Level 4 regulated
Level 5 -100%
Level 5 Level 5 regulated
Level 5
RSS (over 10 homes)
Project Taunton
Level 4 -44%
Level 4 Level 4 regulated
Level 5 -100%
Level 5 Level 5 regulated
Level 6 Level 6 zero carb
Level 5
2016
Level 6
2017
Level 6 +
Non residential developments
National
RSS
25% 25% 25% 34% 34% 34% 34% 34% 44% regulated regulated regulated regulated regulated regulated regulated regulated regulated
Project Taunton
25% 25% 25% 34% 34% 34% 44% 44% 44% 70% regulated regulated regulated regulated regulated regulated regulated regulated regulated regulated
Possible Energy Strategies: 3 Bedroom House East of Exeter INDIVIDUAL HOUSE
SITE WIDE SCHEME
2006 PART L COMPLIANT CSH Level CSH 3 -25% CSH 4 - 44% CSH 5 -100% CSH 6 -100% +
MOST COST Solar Water Heating
Fabric Measures
EFFECTIVE Photovoltaic electricity
Photovoltaics + MicroBiomass Boiler
Gas fired CHP
MOST COST Biomass Site CHP + Photovoltaics
EFFECTIVE Biomass Site CHP + Photovoltaics
The costs of individual dwelling and site wide CSH solutions at Cranbrook
Capital on-cost (£/dwelling)
30,000
PV bio-bioler Bio-boiler
25,000
SWH 20,000
Fabric B
Gas CHP
Fabric A
15,000 10,000
Biomass fuel Steam CHP
5,000 0 3
4 5 Code Level
6
National Forecasts for Onsite RE
Source: RAB report
National Forecasts for Onsite RE
Source: RAB report
SW jobs in new build domestic on site generation with national CSH Implementiation 6000
5000
Jobs FTE
4000
SHW PV
3000
Micro BB CHP Bio CHP
2000
Total 1000
0 2009
2014
2019
2024
SW jobs in new build domestic on site generation with SW RSS CSH Implementiation 6000
5000
Jobs FTE
4000
SHW PV
3000
Micro BB CHP Bio CHP
2000
Total 1000
0 2009
2014
2019
2024
Scenarios for South West Onsite RE in 2020 3500 3000
Existing New build
2500 GWh
2000 1500 1000 500 0 No change
Concieved change
Towards 15% RE
Key Future Market Messages • Regulation is driving RE in new development • New build technology choices change with increased CO2 reduction targets • Demand in new build is likely to be higher than retrofit • New build installation will drive towards high volumes and low costs • There are opportunities and threats for SW onsite RE businesses
Tony Norton Head of Low Carbon Development Regen SW 7th July 2008
What is Regen SW ? 1. Specialist advisor to public & private sector 2. Independent advocate for the SW renewable energy & energy efficiency business sector 3. Broker for technology acceleration projects 4. Forum for discussion between regional bodies and the sector
Low Carbon New Development Programme Objectives Support construction sector learning
Identify and address barriers
Support 5 low carbon developments
Boost installation MW of onsite generation
Achieve early learning, uptake and jobs in onsite RE
Low Carbon Development Timetable Residential Developments 2008
2009
2010 Level 3 25%
2011
2012
Level 3 - Level 3 regulated
2013
2014
2015
Level 4 -44%
Level 4 Level 4 regulated
Level 6 Level 6 zero carb Level 6 Level 6 zero carb
National
2006 BR
2006 BR
Level 4 -44%
Level 4 Level 4 regulated
Level 5 -100%
Level 5 Level 5 regulated
Level 5
RSS (over 10 homes)
Project Taunton
Level 4 -44%
Level 4 Level 4 regulated
Level 5 -100%
Level 5 Level 5 regulated
Level 6 Level 6 zero carb
Level 5
2016
Level 6
2017
Level 6 +
Non residential developments
National
RSS
25% 25% 25% 34% 34% 34% 34% 34% 44% regulated regulated regulated regulated regulated regulated regulated regulated regulated
Project Taunton
25% 25% 25% 34% 34% 34% 44% 44% 44% 70% regulated regulated regulated regulated regulated regulated regulated regulated regulated regulated
Possible Energy Strategies: 3 Bedroom House East of Exeter INDIVIDUAL HOUSE
SITE WIDE SCHEME
2006 PART L COMPLIANT CSH Level CSH 3 -25% CSH 4 - 44% CSH 5 -100% CSH 6 -100% +
MOST COST Solar Water Heating
Fabric Measures
EFFECTIVE Photovoltaic electricity
Photovoltaics + MicroBiomass Boiler
Gas fired CHP
MOST COST Biomass Site CHP + Photovoltaics
EFFECTIVE Biomass Site CHP + Photovoltaics
The costs of individual dwelling and site wide CSH solutions at Cranbrook
Capital on-cost (£/dwelling)
30,000
PV bio-bioler Bio-boiler
25,000
SWH 20,000
Fabric B
Gas CHP
Fabric A
15,000 10,000
Biomass fuel Steam CHP
5,000 0 3
4 5 Code Level
6
National Forecasts for Onsite RE
Source: RAB report
National Forecasts for Onsite RE
Source: RAB report
SW jobs in new build domestic on site generation with national CSH Implementiation 6000
5000
Jobs FTE
4000
SHW PV
3000
Micro BB CHP Bio CHP
2000
Total 1000
0 2009
2014
2019
2024
SW jobs in new build domestic on site generation with SW RSS CSH Implementiation 6000
5000
Jobs FTE
4000
SHW PV
3000
Micro BB CHP Bio CHP
2000
Total 1000
0 2009
2014
2019
2024
Scenarios for South West Onsite RE in 2020 3500 3000
Existing New build
2500 GWh
2000 1500 1000 500 0 No change
Concieved change
Towards 15% RE
Key Future Market Messages • Regulation is driving RE in new development • New build technology choices change with increased CO2 reduction targets • Demand in new build is likely to be higher than retrofit • New build installation will drive towards high volumes and low costs • There are opportunities and threats for SW onsite RE businesses
