Alabama Senate Poll 11/10/17 Sponsor(s)
Decision Desk HQ served as the sponsoring organization. Opinion Savvy, LLC conducted the survey on behalf of the sponsor.
Target Population
Likely voters; Alabama; 2017 Senate special election
Sampling Frame & Methodology
Frame: The sample frame includes registered voters with either a landline telephone or internet-enabled mobile smartphone. Registered voters without access to either a landline telephone or an internet-enabled smartphone are excluded from the frame. Methodology Blended sample; mixed mode Contacted voters of both modes were selected randomly from a list of registered Alabama voters purchased by Opinion Savvy from Aristotle, Inc. Only voters determined likely to vote in the 2017 Senate special election were selected to participate in the survey, based on past election participation. Voters without a valid landline telephone number were selected for the mobile sample. Landline: selected voters were contacted on November 9th 2017 using an automated interactive voice response system. The survey was presented in English. Mobile: selected voters not available by landline telephone were contacted on November 9th 2018 on their mobile devices. Using voter data, selected voters were first matched to online and mobile application profiles electronically, using IP verification to ensure accurate selection and to prevent duplicate results. Selected voters were shown a brief message, push notification, or mobile advertisement requesting their participation in the survey. Respondents were offered a small, non-monetary prize for survey participation. Respondents answered a webbased survey instrument identical to that of landline respondents in written form. The survey was presented in English.
Alabama Senate Poll 11/10/17 Weighting
The blended sample was weighted for age, race, gender, party affiliation, and media market using propensity scores. Weighting benchmarks were determined using 2014 and 2016 primary and general election results with voter turnout figures provided by the Alabama Secretary of State.
Total Number of Respondents
515
Margin of Error*
± 4.3% (95% confidence; not adjusted for weighting) *The reported margin of sampling error is calculated using multiple assumptions that modern surveys rarely fit. The estimate assumes that, insofar as probability-based sampling is possible under real-world conditions, this model conforms to these parameters. Disregarding response rates, each individual within the studied population is equally likely to be selected for survey participation.
Alabama Senate Poll 11/10/17 1. How likely are you to vote in the December 12 election to determine the next US Senator for Alabama? a. I will definitely vote. b. I am considering voting. c. I am unsure, or I do not plan on voting. [TERMINATE] Likely Frequency
Percent
Definitely
479
93.1
Considering
35
6.9
Total
515
100.0
2. If the election to determine the next US Senator for Alabama were held today and your choices were: Democratic nominee and former United States attorney Doug Jones; and Republican nominee and former Alabama Supreme Court justice Roy Moore, for whom would you vote? a. Democratic nominee Doug Jones b. Republican nominee Roy Moore c. Another candidate d. I am undecided Horserace 1 Frequency
Percent
Jones
237
46.0
Moore
239
46.4
Other
20
3.8
Undecided
19
3.7
Total
515
100.0
3. Have you read, seen, or heard any news stories in the past 24 hours regarding Senate candidate Roy Moore, which allege that Moore engaged in a sexual encounter with a 14-year-old girl in 1979, when he was 32 years old? a. Yes b. No c. I am unsure Moore 1 Frequency
Percent
Yes
423
82.2
No
48
9.4
Unsure
43
8.4
Total
515
100.0
Alabama Senate Poll 11/10/17 4. [IF Q3 =A] Given the current allegations made against Senate candidate Roy Moore, do you believe that he should withdraw himself as a candidate in the Senate election? a. Yes b. No c. I am unsure Moore 2 Frequency
Percent
Yes
148
34.9
No Unsure
229 47
54.0 11.1
423
100.0
Total *MOE = ± 4.7%
5. If the election to determine the next US Senator for Alabama were held today and your choices were: Democratic nominee and former United States attorney Doug Jones; Republican nominee and former Alabama Supreme Court justice Roy Moore; and current US Senator for Alabama Luther Strange as a write-in candidate, for whom would you vote? a. Democratic nominee Doug Jones b. Republican nominee Roy Moore c. Write-in candidate Senator Luther Strange d. Another candidate e. I am undecided Horserace 2 Frequency
Percent
Jones
224
43.6
Moore
212
41.3
Strange
63
12.3
Other
7
1.4
Undecided
8
1.5
515
100.0
Total
Alabama Senate Poll 11/10/17 6. Would you describe yourself as an evangelical Christian? a. Yes b. No c. I am unsure. Evangelical Frequency
Percent
Yes
288
56.6
No
172
33.7
Unsure
49
9.7
Total
510
100.0
7. What is your age? a. 18-29 b. 30-44 c. 45-64 d. 65+ Age Frequency
Percent
18-29
31
6.0
30-44
88
17.0
45-64
232
45.0
65+
165
32.0
Total
515
100.0
Frequency
Percent
White
389
75.5
African - American
116
22.5
Other
10
2.0
Total
515
100.0
8. What is your race or ethnicity? a. White b. African-American c. Other Race
Alabama Senate Poll 11/10/17 9. What is your gender? a. Male b. Female Gender Frequency
Percent
Male
237
46.0
Female
278
54.0
Total
515
100.0
Frequency
Percent
Democrat
149
29.0
Republican
299
58.0
Independent / other
67
13.0
Total
515
100.0
Frequency
Percent
9
1.8
HS diploma
123
25.0
Asoc. or trade
93
19.0
College+
266
54.2
490
100.0
10. What is your party affiliation? a. Democrat b. Republican c. Independent or another party Party
11. What is your highest level of education? a. Less than high school b. High school diploma c. Associates degree or trade school d. College degree or higher Education
< HS
Total *MOE = ±4.4%
Alabama Senate Poll 11/10/17 12. Media market a. Huntsville b. Birmingham (incl. Columbus, MS and Atlanta) c. Montgomery (incl Meridian) d. Columbus, GA e. Dothan f. Mobile Media Market Frequency
Percent
Huntsville
103
20.0
Birmingham
211
41.0
Montgomery
72
14.0
Columbus
26
5.0
Dothan
26
5.0
Mobile
77
15.0
Total
515
100.0
Frequency
Percent
Landline
390
75.7
Mobile
125
24.3
Total
515
100.0
13. Collection mode a. Landline b. Mobile Mode
Alabama Senate Poll 11/10/17 Evangelical
Horserace 1
Moore 1
Moore 2
Horserace 2
Yes
No
Unsure
Column N %
Column N %
Column N %
Jones
37.4%
62.1%
36.2%
Moore
57.9%
31.6%
35.0%
Other
2.9%
2.2%
15.1%
Undecided
1.8%
4.0%
13.7%
Yes
80.9%
90.7%
62.6%
No
11.8%
6.3%
4.5%
Unsure
7.2%
3.0%
32.9%
Yes
25.7%
47.9%
37.1%
No
64.6%
39.3%
52.0%
Unsure
9.6%
12.8%
10.9%
Jones
34.3%
59.7%
39.2%
Moore
50.9%
30.2%
27.5%
Strange
13.1%
7.4%
24.8%
Other
1.1%
.9%
3.2%
Undecided
.6%
1.8%
5.4%
Alabama Senate Poll 11/10/17 Age
Horserace 1
Moore 1
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Column N %
Column N %
Column N %
Column N %
Jones
64.8%
57.0%
44.8%
38.4%
Moore
35.2%
36.5%
47.6%
52.2%
Other
0.0%
1.1%
4.9%
4.5%
Undecided
0.0%
5.5%
2.7%
4.9%
Yes
90.9%
97.3%
77.1%
79.7%
No
8.3%
2.1%
10.1%
12.5%
Unsure Moore 2
Horserace 2
.8%
.5%
12.8%
7.8%
Yes
48.2%
46.9%
27.9%
33.7%
No
38.6%
41.8%
61.2%
55.5%
Unsure
13.2%
11.3%
10.9%
10.9%
Jones
59.7%
56.1%
44.3%
33.0%
Moore
40.3%
34.2%
41.7%
44.5%
Strange
0.0%
5.7%
11.9%
18.6%
Other
0.0%
1.8%
.9%
2.2%
Undecided
0.0%
2.2%
1.2%
1.6%
Alabama Senate Poll 11/10/17 Race
Horserace 1
Moore 1
Moore 2
Horserace 2
White
African - American
Other
Column N %
Column N %
Column N %
Jones
36.8%
75.5%
61.2%
Moore
54.4%
20.8%
34.6%
Other
5.0%
.3%
.7%
Undecided
3.8%
3.5%
3.4%
Yes
86.1%
70.4%
66.5%
No
7.6%
14.1%
22.9%
Unsure
6.2%
15.5%
10.6%
Yes
31.3%
49.1%
42.2%
No
58.4%
36.4%
52.1%
Unsure
10.4%
14.6%
5.6%
Jones
32.7%
78.9%
58.2%
Moore
48.8%
17.2%
25.0%
Strange
15.2%
2.0%
16.0%
Other
1.3%
1.9%
.7%
Undecided
1.9%
0.0%
0.0%
Alabama Senate Poll 11/10/17 Gender
Horserace 1
Moore 1
Moore 2
Horserace 2
Male
Female
Column N %
Column N %
Jones
35.8%
54.7%
Moore
55.5%
38.7%
Other
4.5%
3.3%
Undecided
4.2%
3.3%
Yes
84.4%
80.3%
No
6.1%
12.2%
Unsure
9.5%
7.5%
Yes
33.1%
36.4%
No
60.9%
47.8%
Unsure
5.9%
15.7%
Jones
34.7%
51.2%
Moore
51.6%
32.4%
Strange
10.6%
13.7%
Other
.5%
2.2%
Undecided
2.6%
.5%
Alabama Senate Poll 11/10/17 Party
Horserace 1
Moore 1
Moore 2
Horserace 2
Democrat
Republican
Independent / other
Column N %
Column N %
Column N %
Jones
88.8%
20.5%
64.8%
Moore
8.8%
69.3%
28.3%
Other
.3%
5.2%
5.9%
Undecided
2.2%
5.0%
1.0%
Yes
75.9%
85.9%
79.6%
No
14.4%
7.8%
5.2%
Unsure
9.7%
6.3%
15.2%
Yes
64.0%
19.8%
45.7%
No
21.8%
72.9%
31.6%
Unsure
14.2%
7.3%
22.7%
Jones
91.1%
15.7%
61.9%
Moore
6.0%
63.0%
22.7%
Strange
2.7%
17.7%
9.2%
Other
0.0%
1.2%
5.8%
Undecided
.2%
2.3%
.3%
Alabama Senate Poll 11/10/17 Education
Horserace 1
Moore 1
Moore 2
Horserace 2
< HS
HS diploma
Asoc. or trade
College+
Column N %
Column N %
Column N %
Column N %
Jones
48.5%
41.6%
43.4%
50.3%
Moore
48.4%
51.9%
52.1%
42.3%
Other
3.1%
1.5%
1.6%
3.8%
Undecided
0.0%
5.0%
2.9%
3.5%
Yes
22.0%
74.5%
87.7%
87.5%
No
22.0%
12.1%
8.0%
9.1%
Unsure
55.9%
13.4%
4.3%
3.4%
Yes
0.0%
28.7%
34.7%
38.1%
No
100.0%
61.1%
51.8%
51.4%
Unsure
0.0%
10.2%
13.5%
10.6%
Jones
48.5%
40.0%
42.2%
46.8%
Moore
44.8%
45.8%
49.0%
36.7%
Strange
3.1%
11.8%
5.8%
13.5%
Other
3.6%
2.3%
.1%
1.2%
Undecided
0.0%
0.0%
2.9%
1.7%
Alabama Senate Poll 11/10/17 Media Market
Horserace 1
Moore 1
Moore 2
Horserace 2
Huntsville Column N %
Birmingham Column N %
Montgomery Column N %
Columbus Column N %
Dothan Column N %
Mobile Column N %
Jones
47.1%
45.7%
41.6%
61.8%
27.6%
50.4%
Moore
46.4%
48.7%
46.1%
33.9%
67.8%
37.7%
Other
1.3%
1.9%
12.3%
0.0%
4.6%
5.6%
Undecided
5.1%
3.7%
0.0%
4.4%
0.0%
6.4%
Yes
83.2%
82.2%
75.6%
75.3%
78.6%
90.6%
No
10.2%
12.0%
7.3%
5.9%
14.7%
2.5%
Unsure
6.7%
5.7%
17.1%
18.7%
6.6%
7.0%
Yes
31.8%
36.1%
23.0%
51.9%
22.5%
43.9%
No
56.1%
53.7%
66.4%
44.9%
70.5%
40.3%
Unsure
12.1%
10.2%
10.6%
3.1%
7.0%
15.8%
Jones
43.9%
44.7%
41.0%
63.1%
23.8%
42.7%
Moore
40.9%
43.4%
43.8%
18.0%
65.0%
33.4%
Strange
11.1%
10.0%
13.1%
15.9%
11.3%
18.5%
Other
.4%
1.5%
2.2%
0.0%
0.0%
2.9%
Undecided
3.8%
.4%
0.0%
3.0%
0.0%
2.5%
Alabama Senate Poll 11/10/17 Mode
Horserace 1
Moore 1
Moore 2
Horserace 2
Landline
Mobile
Column N %
Column N %
Jones
41.8%
59.3%
Moore
50.4%
34.0%
Other
4.9%
.5%
Undecided
2.9%
6.2%
Yes
77.0%
98.3%
No
11.9%
1.5%
Unsure
11.0%
.2%
Yes
27.7%
52.5%
No
61.3%
36.2%
Unsure
11.0%
11.3%
Jones
38.6%
59.3%
Moore
43.7%
33.5%
Strange
15.5%
2.1%
Other
1.5%
1.3%
Undecided
.7%
3.8%