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Alabama Senate Poll 11/10/17 Sponsor(s)

Decision Desk HQ served as the sponsoring organization. Opinion Savvy, LLC conducted the survey on behalf of the sponsor.

Target Population

Likely voters; Alabama; 2017 Senate special election

Sampling Frame & Methodology

Frame: The sample frame includes registered voters with either a landline telephone or internet-enabled mobile smartphone. Registered voters without access to either a landline telephone or an internet-enabled smartphone are excluded from the frame. Methodology Blended sample; mixed mode Contacted voters of both modes were selected randomly from a list of registered Alabama voters purchased by Opinion Savvy from Aristotle, Inc. Only voters determined likely to vote in the 2017 Senate special election were selected to participate in the survey, based on past election participation. Voters without a valid landline telephone number were selected for the mobile sample. Landline: selected voters were contacted on November 9th 2017 using an automated interactive voice response system. The survey was presented in English. Mobile: selected voters not available by landline telephone were contacted on November 9th 2018 on their mobile devices. Using voter data, selected voters were first matched to online and mobile application profiles electronically, using IP verification to ensure accurate selection and to prevent duplicate results. Selected voters were shown a brief message, push notification, or mobile advertisement requesting their participation in the survey. Respondents were offered a small, non-monetary prize for survey participation. Respondents answered a webbased survey instrument identical to that of landline respondents in written form. The survey was presented in English.

Alabama Senate Poll 11/10/17 Weighting

The blended sample was weighted for age, race, gender, party affiliation, and media market using propensity scores. Weighting benchmarks were determined using 2014 and 2016 primary and general election results with voter turnout figures provided by the Alabama Secretary of State.

Total Number of Respondents

515

Margin of Error*

± 4.3% (95% confidence; not adjusted for weighting) *The reported margin of sampling error is calculated using multiple assumptions that modern surveys rarely fit. The estimate assumes that, insofar as probability-based sampling is possible under real-world conditions, this model conforms to these parameters. Disregarding response rates, each individual within the studied population is equally likely to be selected for survey participation.

Alabama Senate Poll 11/10/17 1. How likely are you to vote in the December 12 election to determine the next US Senator for Alabama? a. I will definitely vote. b. I am considering voting. c. I am unsure, or I do not plan on voting. [TERMINATE] Likely Frequency

Percent

Definitely

479

93.1

Considering

35

6.9

Total

515

100.0

2. If the election to determine the next US Senator for Alabama were held today and your choices were: Democratic nominee and former United States attorney Doug Jones; and Republican nominee and former Alabama Supreme Court justice Roy Moore, for whom would you vote? a. Democratic nominee Doug Jones b. Republican nominee Roy Moore c. Another candidate d. I am undecided Horserace 1 Frequency

Percent

Jones

237

46.0

Moore

239

46.4

Other

20

3.8

Undecided

19

3.7

Total

515

100.0

3. Have you read, seen, or heard any news stories in the past 24 hours regarding Senate candidate Roy Moore, which allege that Moore engaged in a sexual encounter with a 14-year-old girl in 1979, when he was 32 years old? a. Yes b. No c. I am unsure Moore 1 Frequency

Percent

Yes

423

82.2

No

48

9.4

Unsure

43

8.4

Total

515

100.0

Alabama Senate Poll 11/10/17 4. [IF Q3 =A] Given the current allegations made against Senate candidate Roy Moore, do you believe that he should withdraw himself as a candidate in the Senate election? a. Yes b. No c. I am unsure Moore 2 Frequency

Percent

Yes

148

34.9

No Unsure

229 47

54.0 11.1

423

100.0

Total *MOE = ± 4.7%

5. If the election to determine the next US Senator for Alabama were held today and your choices were: Democratic nominee and former United States attorney Doug Jones; Republican nominee and former Alabama Supreme Court justice Roy Moore; and current US Senator for Alabama Luther Strange as a write-in candidate, for whom would you vote? a. Democratic nominee Doug Jones b. Republican nominee Roy Moore c. Write-in candidate Senator Luther Strange d. Another candidate e. I am undecided Horserace 2 Frequency

Percent

Jones

224

43.6

Moore

212

41.3

Strange

63

12.3

Other

7

1.4

Undecided

8

1.5

515

100.0

Total

Alabama Senate Poll 11/10/17 6. Would you describe yourself as an evangelical Christian? a. Yes b. No c. I am unsure. Evangelical Frequency

Percent

Yes

288

56.6

No

172

33.7

Unsure

49

9.7

Total

510

100.0

7. What is your age? a. 18-29 b. 30-44 c. 45-64 d. 65+ Age Frequency

Percent

18-29

31

6.0

30-44

88

17.0

45-64

232

45.0

65+

165

32.0

Total

515

100.0

Frequency

Percent

White

389

75.5

African - American

116

22.5

Other

10

2.0

Total

515

100.0

8. What is your race or ethnicity? a. White b. African-American c. Other Race

Alabama Senate Poll 11/10/17 9. What is your gender? a. Male b. Female Gender Frequency

Percent

Male

237

46.0

Female

278

54.0

Total

515

100.0

Frequency

Percent

Democrat

149

29.0

Republican

299

58.0

Independent / other

67

13.0

Total

515

100.0

Frequency

Percent

9

1.8

HS diploma

123

25.0

Asoc. or trade

93

19.0

College+

266

54.2

490

100.0

10. What is your party affiliation? a. Democrat b. Republican c. Independent or another party Party

11. What is your highest level of education? a. Less than high school b. High school diploma c. Associates degree or trade school d. College degree or higher Education

< HS

Total *MOE = ±4.4%

Alabama Senate Poll 11/10/17 12. Media market a. Huntsville b. Birmingham (incl. Columbus, MS and Atlanta) c. Montgomery (incl Meridian) d. Columbus, GA e. Dothan f. Mobile Media Market Frequency

Percent

Huntsville

103

20.0

Birmingham

211

41.0

Montgomery

72

14.0

Columbus

26

5.0

Dothan

26

5.0

Mobile

77

15.0

Total

515

100.0

Frequency

Percent

Landline

390

75.7

Mobile

125

24.3

Total

515

100.0

13. Collection mode a. Landline b. Mobile Mode

Alabama Senate Poll 11/10/17 Evangelical

Horserace 1

Moore 1

Moore 2

Horserace 2

Yes

No

Unsure

Column N %

Column N %

Column N %

Jones

37.4%

62.1%

36.2%

Moore

57.9%

31.6%

35.0%

Other

2.9%

2.2%

15.1%

Undecided

1.8%

4.0%

13.7%

Yes

80.9%

90.7%

62.6%

No

11.8%

6.3%

4.5%

Unsure

7.2%

3.0%

32.9%

Yes

25.7%

47.9%

37.1%

No

64.6%

39.3%

52.0%

Unsure

9.6%

12.8%

10.9%

Jones

34.3%

59.7%

39.2%

Moore

50.9%

30.2%

27.5%

Strange

13.1%

7.4%

24.8%

Other

1.1%

.9%

3.2%

Undecided

.6%

1.8%

5.4%

Alabama Senate Poll 11/10/17 Age

Horserace 1

Moore 1

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Column N %

Column N %

Column N %

Column N %

Jones

64.8%

57.0%

44.8%

38.4%

Moore

35.2%

36.5%

47.6%

52.2%

Other

0.0%

1.1%

4.9%

4.5%

Undecided

0.0%

5.5%

2.7%

4.9%

Yes

90.9%

97.3%

77.1%

79.7%

No

8.3%

2.1%

10.1%

12.5%

Unsure Moore 2

Horserace 2

.8%

.5%

12.8%

7.8%

Yes

48.2%

46.9%

27.9%

33.7%

No

38.6%

41.8%

61.2%

55.5%

Unsure

13.2%

11.3%

10.9%

10.9%

Jones

59.7%

56.1%

44.3%

33.0%

Moore

40.3%

34.2%

41.7%

44.5%

Strange

0.0%

5.7%

11.9%

18.6%

Other

0.0%

1.8%

.9%

2.2%

Undecided

0.0%

2.2%

1.2%

1.6%

Alabama Senate Poll 11/10/17 Race

Horserace 1

Moore 1

Moore 2

Horserace 2

White

African - American

Other

Column N %

Column N %

Column N %

Jones

36.8%

75.5%

61.2%

Moore

54.4%

20.8%

34.6%

Other

5.0%

.3%

.7%

Undecided

3.8%

3.5%

3.4%

Yes

86.1%

70.4%

66.5%

No

7.6%

14.1%

22.9%

Unsure

6.2%

15.5%

10.6%

Yes

31.3%

49.1%

42.2%

No

58.4%

36.4%

52.1%

Unsure

10.4%

14.6%

5.6%

Jones

32.7%

78.9%

58.2%

Moore

48.8%

17.2%

25.0%

Strange

15.2%

2.0%

16.0%

Other

1.3%

1.9%

.7%

Undecided

1.9%

0.0%

0.0%

Alabama Senate Poll 11/10/17 Gender

Horserace 1

Moore 1

Moore 2

Horserace 2

Male

Female

Column N %

Column N %

Jones

35.8%

54.7%

Moore

55.5%

38.7%

Other

4.5%

3.3%

Undecided

4.2%

3.3%

Yes

84.4%

80.3%

No

6.1%

12.2%

Unsure

9.5%

7.5%

Yes

33.1%

36.4%

No

60.9%

47.8%

Unsure

5.9%

15.7%

Jones

34.7%

51.2%

Moore

51.6%

32.4%

Strange

10.6%

13.7%

Other

.5%

2.2%

Undecided

2.6%

.5%

Alabama Senate Poll 11/10/17 Party

Horserace 1

Moore 1

Moore 2

Horserace 2

Democrat

Republican

Independent / other

Column N %

Column N %

Column N %

Jones

88.8%

20.5%

64.8%

Moore

8.8%

69.3%

28.3%

Other

.3%

5.2%

5.9%

Undecided

2.2%

5.0%

1.0%

Yes

75.9%

85.9%

79.6%

No

14.4%

7.8%

5.2%

Unsure

9.7%

6.3%

15.2%

Yes

64.0%

19.8%

45.7%

No

21.8%

72.9%

31.6%

Unsure

14.2%

7.3%

22.7%

Jones

91.1%

15.7%

61.9%

Moore

6.0%

63.0%

22.7%

Strange

2.7%

17.7%

9.2%

Other

0.0%

1.2%

5.8%

Undecided

.2%

2.3%

.3%

Alabama Senate Poll 11/10/17 Education

Horserace 1

Moore 1

Moore 2

Horserace 2

< HS

HS diploma

Asoc. or trade

College+

Column N %

Column N %

Column N %

Column N %

Jones

48.5%

41.6%

43.4%

50.3%

Moore

48.4%

51.9%

52.1%

42.3%

Other

3.1%

1.5%

1.6%

3.8%

Undecided

0.0%

5.0%

2.9%

3.5%

Yes

22.0%

74.5%

87.7%

87.5%

No

22.0%

12.1%

8.0%

9.1%

Unsure

55.9%

13.4%

4.3%

3.4%

Yes

0.0%

28.7%

34.7%

38.1%

No

100.0%

61.1%

51.8%

51.4%

Unsure

0.0%

10.2%

13.5%

10.6%

Jones

48.5%

40.0%

42.2%

46.8%

Moore

44.8%

45.8%

49.0%

36.7%

Strange

3.1%

11.8%

5.8%

13.5%

Other

3.6%

2.3%

.1%

1.2%

Undecided

0.0%

0.0%

2.9%

1.7%

Alabama Senate Poll 11/10/17 Media Market

Horserace 1

Moore 1

Moore 2

Horserace 2

Huntsville Column N %

Birmingham Column N %

Montgomery Column N %

Columbus Column N %

Dothan Column N %

Mobile Column N %

Jones

47.1%

45.7%

41.6%

61.8%

27.6%

50.4%

Moore

46.4%

48.7%

46.1%

33.9%

67.8%

37.7%

Other

1.3%

1.9%

12.3%

0.0%

4.6%

5.6%

Undecided

5.1%

3.7%

0.0%

4.4%

0.0%

6.4%

Yes

83.2%

82.2%

75.6%

75.3%

78.6%

90.6%

No

10.2%

12.0%

7.3%

5.9%

14.7%

2.5%

Unsure

6.7%

5.7%

17.1%

18.7%

6.6%

7.0%

Yes

31.8%

36.1%

23.0%

51.9%

22.5%

43.9%

No

56.1%

53.7%

66.4%

44.9%

70.5%

40.3%

Unsure

12.1%

10.2%

10.6%

3.1%

7.0%

15.8%

Jones

43.9%

44.7%

41.0%

63.1%

23.8%

42.7%

Moore

40.9%

43.4%

43.8%

18.0%

65.0%

33.4%

Strange

11.1%

10.0%

13.1%

15.9%

11.3%

18.5%

Other

.4%

1.5%

2.2%

0.0%

0.0%

2.9%

Undecided

3.8%

.4%

0.0%

3.0%

0.0%

2.5%

Alabama Senate Poll 11/10/17 Mode

Horserace 1

Moore 1

Moore 2

Horserace 2

Landline

Mobile

Column N %

Column N %

Jones

41.8%

59.3%

Moore

50.4%

34.0%

Other

4.9%

.5%

Undecided

2.9%

6.2%

Yes

77.0%

98.3%

No

11.9%

1.5%

Unsure

11.0%

.2%

Yes

27.7%

52.5%

No

61.3%

36.2%

Unsure

11.0%

11.3%

Jones

38.6%

59.3%

Moore

43.7%

33.5%

Strange

15.5%

2.1%

Other

1.5%

1.3%

Undecided

.7%

3.8%