1Q17
MANHATTAN MARKET REPORT
Q1
MANHATTAN MARKET REPORT 1Q 2017 Manhattan’s residential market is showing signs of improvement after a period of uncertainty leading up to the Presidential election, as it does whenever there is a change in administration. People at home and abroad were watching and waiting before making any big investments and the housing market felt the impact. The perception of a luxury slowdown heightened fears for many domestic and foreign buyers, but the first quarter of 2017 reveals a welcome change: sellers are rightsizing their expectations, and pricing properties more appropriately, which in turn is drawing in more buyers. It’s as if the entire market is catching its breath after a bout of anxiety, and the recovery phase is taking hold. Stribling & Associates’ newly-designed Q1 2017 Manhattan Market Report analysis paints a promising picture supported by three main themes: Downtown is up, but Uptown is rising The highest prices, highest price-per-square foot and largest share of inventory were all achieved Downtown in Q1. This reflects the growing preference for new developments and conversions—the bulk of that area’s new inventory. It should be no surprise that Downtown also had the most Q1 closings. However, upper Manhattan condos yielded Q1 double-digit gains in inventory, contracts signed, and recorded sales. We attribute this to the fact that Upper Manhattan remains the most affordable, and has the greatest potential for development as overall building costs uptown are more cost effective. Luxury is not lost, but buyers are taking their time The rush to pay big money for big apartments has slowed down, which is good for overall affordability. 53% of $10M+ properties took more than 180 days to enter contract. Properties in this same price category comprised just 3% of total Q1 closings. From this we glean that luxury properties are moving, just not at the rapid pace of years prior. With more inventory at better prices, people have the ability to shop around for “something special.” Still setting records New York is as resilient as the people who live here, and even the housing market reflects that. Across Manhattan, we saw new records in Median Price ($1,220,000), Average Price ($2,198,916) and Average Price Per Square Foot ($1,575). These numbers show the city is thriving. Wealth continues to flock to New York; in fact, numerous studies show there are now more billionaires living in New York than in any other major city in the world. Lastly, when reading Stribling & Associates Q1 2017 Manhattan Market report, you will notice some big changes. We’ve added more content, more metrics, and more infographics to present the most accurate and complete state of the Manhattan residential market. With so much information out there, our hope is to cut through the noise and bring you real data that you can use to make better informed real estate decisions.
Sincerely,
Elizabeth Ann Stribling-Kivlan President
Elizabeth F. Stribling Chairman
Researched and Written by Garrett Derderian Director of Data & Reporting
The Right Broker Makes All the Difference.
“The highest prices, highest price-per-square foot and largest share of inventory were all achieved Downtown”
TABLE OF
CONTENTS
5
6
12
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
TOTAL INVENTORY
MONTHS OF SUPPLY
14
20
22
CONTRACTS SIGNED
TIME ON MARKET
CLOSED SALES
28
30
31
PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT
METHODOLOGY
CONTACT
5 | 1Q 2017 | STRIBLING QUARTERLY MARKET REPORT
MARKET
HIGHLIGHTS
MANHATTAN WIDE STATS
Median Price
$1,220,000 (record)
Average Price
$2,198,916 (record)
32%
share of total inventory was over $3M
57days $1,575
median days on market
53% 56%
average price per square foot
(record)
of $10M+ properties took more than 180 days to enter contract of Upper Manhattan properties entered contract in 59 days
6 | 1Q 2017 | STRIBLING QUARTERLY MARKET REPORT
TOTAL
INVENTORY
1Q 2017 PERCENTAGE OF UNITS 1Q 2017 PERCENTAGE OF UNITS
BY UNIT TYPE There were 6,483 units listed on the market in 1Q17, a 35% year-over-year increase and the highest 1Q total since 2009 when 9,144 units were on the market. 2BR units comprised the largest share at 32%, with an average PPSF of $1,841 and size of 1,422 square feet. 1BR units captured 29% of inventory, with an average PPSF of $1,578 and size of 854 square feet. All other bedroom categories logged less than a 20% share, with studios generating a mere 9% of listings. Condo prices were down year-over-year across all bedroom categories, with 3BRs and 4+BRs recording the steepest median price declines at -8% and -9%, respectively. These drops are attributed to the sheer number of larger condo apartments that have come to market, particularly in the new development space, resulting in a more competitive market. The only year-over-year price growth across condo unit type was in the PPSF category; 1BR units were up 3% to $1,764 and 2 BRs improved 3% to $2,022. Co-op prices fared better than Condos in the first quarter. Median prices were up for studio (4%), 1 BR (3%), and 4+BR (0.4%) units. 3BR units had a precipitous decline, with the median down 8%, average down 17%, and PPSF down 9%. However, 3BR units averaged a 9% drop in size, resulting in lower prices overall.
STUDIO
9%
1 BEDROOM
29%
2 BEDROOM
32%
3 BEDROOM
17%
4+ BEDROOM
12% 0
5ꢀ
10ꢀ
15ꢀ
20ꢀ
1Q 2017 AVERAGE PPSF
25ꢀ
30ꢀ
35ꢀ
1Q 2017 AVERAGE PPSF STUDIO
ꢀ1,346
1 BEDROOM
ꢀ1,578
2 BEDROOM
ꢀ1,841
3 BEDROOM
ꢀ2,206
4+ BEDROOM
ꢀ2,607 0
500
1,000
1Q 2017 AVERAGE SIZE
1,500
2,000
1Q 2017 AVERAGE SIZE
2,500
3,000
STUDIO
549
1 BEDROOM
854
2 BEDROOM
1,422
3 BEDROOM
2,226
4+ BEDROOM
4,293 0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
7 | 1Q 2017 | STRIBLING QUARTERLY MARKET REPORT
1Q 2017 CONDO INVENTORY
1Q 2017 TOTAL INVENTORY STꢀDIO
12ꢂ
9ꢂ
STUDIO
1 BEDROOM
2 BEDROOM
3 BEDROOM
4+ BEDROOM
% Units
7%
28%
34%
20%
11%
Median Price
$770,000
$1,300,000
$2,550,000
$4,600,000
$8,900,000
YoY
-6%
-2%
-4%
-8%
-9%
Average Price
$851,467
$1,492,786
$2,994,349
$5,636,879
$12,605,974
STUDIO
YoY
-5%
-5%
-3%
-16%
-8%
1BR
Average PPSF
$1,528
$1,764
$2,022
$2,364
$3,039
YoY
-3%
3%
3%
-7%
-2%
Average SF
574
845
1,436
2,256
3,814
YoY
4%
-0.6%
-0.2%
-3%
0.2%
1BR 2BR STꢀDIO 3BR 1BR 4ꢁBR 2BR
12ꢂ
9ꢂ
17ꢂ
3BR 4ꢁBR
29ꢂ 29ꢂ
17ꢂ
2BR 3BR
32ꢂ
4+BR
32ꢂ
9ꢂ
11ꢂ
9ꢂ
11ꢂ
1Q 2017 NEWLY LISTED INVENTORY
1Q 2017 CO-OP INVENTORY
STꢀDIO 1BR
2BR STꢀDIO 3BR 1BR 4ꢁBR 2BR
1ꢃꢂ 1ꢃꢂ
3BR
32ꢂ
4ꢁBR
STUDIO 1BR 2BR 3BR 4+BR
32ꢂ
32ꢂ 32ꢂ
STUDIO
1 BEDROOM
2 BEDROOM
3 BEDROOM
4+ BEDROOM
% Units
13%
33%
31%
15%
8%
Median Price
$469,000
$770,000
$1,500,000
$2,900,000
$5,995,000
YoY
4%
3%
-3%
-8%
0.4%
Average Price
$499,601
$888,442
$1,896,423
$3,553,045
$8,829,893
YoY
2%
0.5%
-8%
-17%
-10%
Average PPSF
$1,032
$1,057
$1,219
$1,441
$2,001
YoY
13%
4%
-2%
-9%
13%
Average SF
503
856
1,364
2,069
3,343
YoY
-1%
2%
3%
-9%
8%
8 | 1Q 2017 | STRIBLING QUARTERLY MARKET REPORT
TOTAL
INVENTORY
BY PRICE POINT Of available listings, the $1-3M bracket held the largest share of any category, with 39%. $500K-1M followed with 22%, while $3-5M took 14%. These figures remained considerably flat year-over-year. Notably, there were 113 properties (2%) priced above $20M, representing a 56% increase over the 10-year 1Q average of 72, but a 10% drop from 125 units one year ago. A commanding 45% of Condo listings were priced between $1-3M, where the median price dipped a minimal 0.2% year-over-year to $1,795,000 with a PPSF of $1,745. The second highest share was 18% in the $3-5M bracket; the median price was up a modest 1% to $3,850,000, while the PPSF ticked up 2% to $2,217. Remarkably, properties priced over $20M had the largest increase: the median was up 11% to $33,000,000 and the average size jumped 15% to 6,110 square feet. Those priced under $500K had a 28% surge in PPSF to $954; the average size dropped 5% to 564 square feet. Co-ops priced between $500K-1M and $1-3M each measured 34% share of inventory. Those priced less than $500K took 14%, while only 18% of properties were listed above $3M. This is a stark contrast to Condo listings, where 40% were listed above $3M. Co-op units priced above $20M mirrored Condos in terms of size, up 11% to 6,125 square feet. Conversely, the median price dropped 11%to $29,000,000. Those priced $20M+ also had a 17% PPSF drop to $4,773, while listings priced between $500K-1M had the largest PPSF increase: up 10% to $958.
1Q 2017 BY Price Point PERCENTAGE OF UNITS 1Q 2017 PERCENTAGE OF UNITS
Q1
MANHATTAN MARKET REPORT 1Q 2017 Manhattan’s residential market is showing signs of improvement after a period of uncertainty leading up to the Presidential election, as it does whenever there is a change in administration. People at home and abroad were watching and waiting before making any big investments and the housing market felt the impact. The perception of a luxury slowdown heightened fears for many domestic and foreign buyers, but the first quarter of 2017 reveals a welcome change: sellers are rightsizing their expectations, and pricing properties more appropriately, which in turn is drawing in more buyers. It’s as if the entire market is catching its breath after a bout of anxiety, and the recovery phase is taking hold. Stribling & Associates’ newly-designed Q1 2017 Manhattan Market Report analysis paints a promising picture supported by three main themes: Downtown is up, but Uptown is rising The highest prices, highest price-per-square foot and largest share of inventory were all achieved Downtown in Q1. This reflects the growing preference for new developments and conversions—the bulk of that area’s new inventory. It should be no surprise that Downtown also had the most Q1 closings. However, upper Manhattan condos yielded Q1 double-digit gains in inventory, contracts signed, and recorded sales. We attribute this to the fact that Upper Manhattan remains the most affordable, and has the greatest potential for development as overall building costs uptown are more cost effective. Luxury is not lost, but buyers are taking their time The rush to pay big money for big apartments has slowed down, which is good for overall affordability. 53% of $10M+ properties took more than 180 days to enter contract. Properties in this same price category comprised just 3% of total Q1 closings. From this we glean that luxury properties are moving, just not at the rapid pace of years prior. With more inventory at better prices, people have the ability to shop around for “something special.” Still setting records New York is as resilient as the people who live here, and even the housing market reflects that. Across Manhattan, we saw new records in Median Price ($1,220,000), Average Price ($2,198,916) and Average Price Per Square Foot ($1,575). These numbers show the city is thriving. Wealth continues to flock to New York; in fact, numerous studies show there are now more billionaires living in New York than in any other major city in the world. Lastly, when reading Stribling & Associates Q1 2017 Manhattan Market report, you will notice some big changes. We’ve added more content, more metrics, and more infographics to present the most accurate and complete state of the Manhattan residential market. With so much information out there, our hope is to cut through the noise and bring you real data that you can use to make better informed real estate decisions.
Sincerely,
Elizabeth Ann Stribling-Kivlan President
Elizabeth F. Stribling Chairman
Researched and Written by Garrett Derderian Director of Data & Reporting
The Right Broker Makes All the Difference.
“The highest prices, highest price-per-square foot and largest share of inventory were all achieved Downtown”
TABLE OF
CONTENTS
5
6
12
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
TOTAL INVENTORY
MONTHS OF SUPPLY
14
20
22
CONTRACTS SIGNED
TIME ON MARKET
CLOSED SALES
28
30
31
PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT
METHODOLOGY
CONTACT
5 | 1Q 2017 | STRIBLING QUARTERLY MARKET REPORT
MARKET
HIGHLIGHTS
MANHATTAN WIDE STATS
Median Price
$1,220,000 (record)
Average Price
$2,198,916 (record)
32%
share of total inventory was over $3M
57days $1,575
median days on market
53% 56%
average price per square foot
(record)
of $10M+ properties took more than 180 days to enter contract of Upper Manhattan properties entered contract in 59 days
6 | 1Q 2017 | STRIBLING QUARTERLY MARKET REPORT
TOTAL
INVENTORY
1Q 2017 PERCENTAGE OF UNITS 1Q 2017 PERCENTAGE OF UNITS
BY UNIT TYPE There were 6,483 units listed on the market in 1Q17, a 35% year-over-year increase and the highest 1Q total since 2009 when 9,144 units were on the market. 2BR units comprised the largest share at 32%, with an average PPSF of $1,841 and size of 1,422 square feet. 1BR units captured 29% of inventory, with an average PPSF of $1,578 and size of 854 square feet. All other bedroom categories logged less than a 20% share, with studios generating a mere 9% of listings. Condo prices were down year-over-year across all bedroom categories, with 3BRs and 4+BRs recording the steepest median price declines at -8% and -9%, respectively. These drops are attributed to the sheer number of larger condo apartments that have come to market, particularly in the new development space, resulting in a more competitive market. The only year-over-year price growth across condo unit type was in the PPSF category; 1BR units were up 3% to $1,764 and 2 BRs improved 3% to $2,022. Co-op prices fared better than Condos in the first quarter. Median prices were up for studio (4%), 1 BR (3%), and 4+BR (0.4%) units. 3BR units had a precipitous decline, with the median down 8%, average down 17%, and PPSF down 9%. However, 3BR units averaged a 9% drop in size, resulting in lower prices overall.
STUDIO
9%
1 BEDROOM
29%
2 BEDROOM
32%
3 BEDROOM
17%
4+ BEDROOM
12% 0
5ꢀ
10ꢀ
15ꢀ
20ꢀ
1Q 2017 AVERAGE PPSF
25ꢀ
30ꢀ
35ꢀ
1Q 2017 AVERAGE PPSF STUDIO
ꢀ1,346
1 BEDROOM
ꢀ1,578
2 BEDROOM
ꢀ1,841
3 BEDROOM
ꢀ2,206
4+ BEDROOM
ꢀ2,607 0
500
1,000
1Q 2017 AVERAGE SIZE
1,500
2,000
1Q 2017 AVERAGE SIZE
2,500
3,000
STUDIO
549
1 BEDROOM
854
2 BEDROOM
1,422
3 BEDROOM
2,226
4+ BEDROOM
4,293 0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
7 | 1Q 2017 | STRIBLING QUARTERLY MARKET REPORT
1Q 2017 CONDO INVENTORY
1Q 2017 TOTAL INVENTORY STꢀDIO
12ꢂ
9ꢂ
STUDIO
1 BEDROOM
2 BEDROOM
3 BEDROOM
4+ BEDROOM
% Units
7%
28%
34%
20%
11%
Median Price
$770,000
$1,300,000
$2,550,000
$4,600,000
$8,900,000
YoY
-6%
-2%
-4%
-8%
-9%
Average Price
$851,467
$1,492,786
$2,994,349
$5,636,879
$12,605,974
STUDIO
YoY
-5%
-5%
-3%
-16%
-8%
1BR
Average PPSF
$1,528
$1,764
$2,022
$2,364
$3,039
YoY
-3%
3%
3%
-7%
-2%
Average SF
574
845
1,436
2,256
3,814
YoY
4%
-0.6%
-0.2%
-3%
0.2%
1BR 2BR STꢀDIO 3BR 1BR 4ꢁBR 2BR
12ꢂ
9ꢂ
17ꢂ
3BR 4ꢁBR
29ꢂ 29ꢂ
17ꢂ
2BR 3BR
32ꢂ
4+BR
32ꢂ
9ꢂ
11ꢂ
9ꢂ
11ꢂ
1Q 2017 NEWLY LISTED INVENTORY
1Q 2017 CO-OP INVENTORY
STꢀDIO 1BR
2BR STꢀDIO 3BR 1BR 4ꢁBR 2BR
1ꢃꢂ 1ꢃꢂ
3BR
32ꢂ
4ꢁBR
STUDIO 1BR 2BR 3BR 4+BR
32ꢂ
32ꢂ 32ꢂ
STUDIO
1 BEDROOM
2 BEDROOM
3 BEDROOM
4+ BEDROOM
% Units
13%
33%
31%
15%
8%
Median Price
$469,000
$770,000
$1,500,000
$2,900,000
$5,995,000
YoY
4%
3%
-3%
-8%
0.4%
Average Price
$499,601
$888,442
$1,896,423
$3,553,045
$8,829,893
YoY
2%
0.5%
-8%
-17%
-10%
Average PPSF
$1,032
$1,057
$1,219
$1,441
$2,001
YoY
13%
4%
-2%
-9%
13%
Average SF
503
856
1,364
2,069
3,343
YoY
-1%
2%
3%
-9%
8%
8 | 1Q 2017 | STRIBLING QUARTERLY MARKET REPORT
TOTAL
INVENTORY
BY PRICE POINT Of available listings, the $1-3M bracket held the largest share of any category, with 39%. $500K-1M followed with 22%, while $3-5M took 14%. These figures remained considerably flat year-over-year. Notably, there were 113 properties (2%) priced above $20M, representing a 56% increase over the 10-year 1Q average of 72, but a 10% drop from 125 units one year ago. A commanding 45% of Condo listings were priced between $1-3M, where the median price dipped a minimal 0.2% year-over-year to $1,795,000 with a PPSF of $1,745. The second highest share was 18% in the $3-5M bracket; the median price was up a modest 1% to $3,850,000, while the PPSF ticked up 2% to $2,217. Remarkably, properties priced over $20M had the largest increase: the median was up 11% to $33,000,000 and the average size jumped 15% to 6,110 square feet. Those priced under $500K had a 28% surge in PPSF to $954; the average size dropped 5% to 564 square feet. Co-ops priced between $500K-1M and $1-3M each measured 34% share of inventory. Those priced less than $500K took 14%, while only 18% of properties were listed above $3M. This is a stark contrast to Condo listings, where 40% were listed above $3M. Co-op units priced above $20M mirrored Condos in terms of size, up 11% to 6,125 square feet. Conversely, the median price dropped 11%to $29,000,000. Those priced $20M+ also had a 17% PPSF drop to $4,773, while listings priced between $500K-1M had the largest PPSF increase: up 10% to $958.
1Q 2017 BY Price Point PERCENTAGE OF UNITS 1Q 2017 PERCENTAGE OF UNITS
