2014 11 07 latino election final
NUMBERS, FACTS AND TRENDS SHAPING THE WORLD
FOR RELEASE Friday, Nov. 7, 2014
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS REPORT: Mark Hugo Lopez, Director of Hispanic Research Molly Rohal, Communications Associate 202.419.4372 www.pewresearch.org
RECOMMENDED CITATION: Pew Research Center, Month, Year, “Report Title”
1 PEW RESEARCH CENTER
About This Report Exit poll results for this report were obtained from NBC News and CNN 2014 election websites on November 6, 2014 and are based on national and state exit poll surveys of voters as conducted by Edison Research for the National Election Pool. In addition to an analysis of the national Latino vote, the Latino vote in five states was examined. These states are California, Florida, Georgia, New York and Texas. This report was written by Jens Manuel Krogstad and Mark Hugo Lopez. Charts and tables were created by Jens Manuel Krogstad. Number-checking was done by Ana Gonzalez-Barrera and Anna Brown. Copy editing was done by Bruce Drake. Find related reports online at pewresearch.org/hispanic.
A Note on Terminology The terms “Latino” and “Hispanic” are used interchangeably in this report.
About Pew Research Center Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan fact tank that informs the public about the issues, attitudes and trends shaping America and the world. It does not take policy positions. It conducts public opinion polling, demographic research, media content analysis and other empirical social science research. The center studies U.S. politics and policy views; media and journalism; internet and technology; religion and public life; Hispanic trends; global attitudes and U.S. social and demographic trends. All of the center’s reports are available at www.pewresearch.org. Pew Research Center is a subsidiary of The Pew Charitable Trusts. Michael Dimock, President Elizabeth Mueller Gross, Vice President Robyn Tomlin, Chief Digital Officer Andrew Kohut, Founding Director
© Pew Research Center 2014
www.pewresearch.org
2 PEW RESEARCH CENTER
Table of Contents About This Report
1
A Note on Terminology
1
About Pew Research Center
1
Table of Contents
2
Hispanic Vote in Select State Races
4
Democratic Advantage Somewhat Larger among Latino Women
7
Latino Voters Say Economy Top Issue Facing the Country in 2014
7
References
8
Appendix: National and Selected State Results
9
www.pewresearch.org
3 PEW RESEARCH CENTER
BY Jens Manuel Krogstad AND Mark Hugo
Lopez
FIGURE 1
Democrats maintained a large edge among Latinos voting in Tuesday’s midterm elections, but in some states, Republican candidates won more than 40% of the Latino vote, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of National Election Pool exit poll data as reported by NBC News. Though Democrats comfortably won the Latino vote in nearly all states that had key Senate or gubernatorial races (and for which exit poll data is available), Republican candidates won many of those contests, and will take control of the U.S. Senate for the first time since 2007. In congressional races nationally, Democrats won the Latino vote by a margin of 62% to 36%. This is comparable to the last midterm cycle four years ago when six-in-ten (60%) Latinos voted for a Democratic candidate, but down from 2012 when Democrats took 68% of the Latino vote.
Vote for Congressional Candidates in National Elections % of each group who reported voting Democratic or Republican in their congressional district race Democrat
Republican
2014
62
Latino White
36
38
60 89
Black
10
2012
68
Latino White
30
39
59 91
Black
8
2010
60
Latino White Black
38
37
60 89
9
By comparison, Republicans won the white Note: “Other/No Answer” responses not shown. vote by a nearly as wide a margin — 60% to Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 2010, 2012 and 2014 38%, essentially unchanged from 2010 and National Election Pool exit poll results as reported by NBC News, 2012. Among black voters, 89% voted for the New York Times and CNN, respectively. Democratic candidate in their local PEW RESEARCH CENTER congressional election while 10% supported the Republican. This is unchanged from 2010. In 2012, 91% of black voters supported Democrats and 8% backed Republicans.
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The national exit poll shows Latinos made up an estimated 8% of voters this year1. The share of Hispanics who voted remained unchanged from their estimated share in 2010 and 2006 despite the growing share of eligible voters (U.S. citizens ages 18 or older). This year, 11% of all eligible voters are Hispanic, up from 10.1% in 2010 and 8.6% in 2006 (Lopez, Krogstad, Patten and Gonzalez-Barrera, 2014). The unchanged Hispanic share of voters suggests that the Hispanic voter turnout rate may not have changed much from 2010, when 31.2% of Hispanic eligible voters cast a vote.2 FIGURE 2
Meanwhile, the national exit poll reports the estimated black voter share was 10% in 2006, 11% in 2010 and 12% in 2014. And the share of white voters has declined from 79% in 2006 to 77% in 2010 and now to 75%, reflecting growing diversity of the nation’s population and electorate.
Latino Vote in Key Senate Races, 2014 % of each group who reported voting Democratic or Republican in their Senate race Democrat Georgia All Hispanic
In several states where exit polling data for Hispanic voters is available, Democrats generally won the Hispanic vote in Senate and gubernatorial races. But in some states, Republicans did well among Hispanics, securing 40% or more of the vote.
Republican
45 57
53 42
Texas All Hispanic
34 47
62 48
Note: “Other/No Answer” responses not shown.
This held true for two Senate races. In Source: Pew Research Center analysis of the 2014 National Election Pool exit poll results as reported by NBC News. Georgia, Democrat Michelle Nunn won 57% of PEW RESEARCH CENTER the Latino vote to Republican David Perdue’s 42%. But Perdue won the election. In Texas, the Latino vote was split between incumbent Republican John Cornyn (48%) and Democrat David Alameel (47%), as Cornyn won support from nearly half of Latinos. Exit poll data is not available for the Latino vote in Colorado or North Carolina, two key states in this year’s election. While the national exit poll offers an estimate of the demographic composition of voters, for Hispanics, this estimate often differs from that of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey (Krogstad and Lopez, 2014). 2 In 2010, 6.6 million Hispanics voted according to a Pew Research Center analysis of the November Current Population Survey. Looked at another way, that’s a 31.2% voter turnout rate among Hispanic eligible voters. It was also little changed from 2006, when 32.3% of Hispanics voted (Lopez, Krogstad, Patten and Gonzalez-Barrera, 2014). Final estimates of Hispanic voter turnout and the Hispanic voter turnout rate will be available in the spring of 2015 when Census Bureau data becomes available. 1
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In races for governor, the three states with the largest number of Latino voters had contests — California, Texas, and Florida. In Florida, Gov. Rick Scott won re-election despite losing the Hispanic vote to Democrat Charlie Crist by a margin of 38% to 58%, according to the state exit poll. That’s a marked decline from 2010, when 50% of Hispanics voted for Scott and from 2006, when the Latino vote was split 49%-49% between the two parties.
FIGURE 3
Latino Vote in Key Governor Races, 2014 % of each group who reported voting Democratic or Republican in their governor race Democrat California All Hispanic
In the Texas race for governor, Democrat Wendy Davis won the Latino vote 55% to 44% but lost the election to Republican Greg Abbott.
59
41
73
27
Florida All Hispanic
Republican
47 58
48 38
Georgia
In California’s governor race, a greater share of Hispanics voted Democratic than in the previous two midterm elections. Gov. Jerry Brown (D) won the Hispanic vote by a margin of 73% to 27% in his victory over Republican Neel Kashkari this year. During the previous two elections, the Democratic candidate won 64% (2010) and 56% (2006) of the Hispanic vote.
All
45
Hispanic
53
New York All
54
Hispanic
47
41
69
27
Texas All Hispanic
53
39 55
59 44
Note: “Other/No Answer” responses not shown. In two other states with exit poll data for Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 National Election gubernatorial races, Latino voters gave their Pool exit poll results as reported by NBC News. support to Democratic candidates. In New PEW RESEARCH CENTER York, incumbent Democrat Andrew Cuomo defeated Republican Rob Astorino among Latino voters by a margin of 69% to 27%. And in Georgia, Republican Nathan Deal defeated Democrat Jason Carter in the race for governor. But Carter won a greater share of the Latino vote than Deal, by a margin of 53% to 47%, according to the state’s exit poll.
Several Hispanic candidates won elections to statewide offices and Congress this year. Two Hispanic Republicans who won races for governor in 2010—Susana Martinez in New Mexico and
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6 PEW RESEARCH CENTER
Brian Sandoval in Nevada— comfortably won re-election. Martinez won with 57% of the vote, and Sandoval 71% (exit poll data on the Hispanic vote in each state was not available). This year saw five new Latinos elected to Congress, according to the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials. In Florida, Republican Carlos Curbelo defeated incumbent Democrat Joe Garcia in the state’s 26th Congressional District. In West Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District, Republican Alex Mooney was elected, while. Ruben Gallego (D) won Arizona’s 7th Congressional District. In California, Democrat Pete Aguilar won in the 31st Congressional District, and Democrat Norma Torres won in the 35th Congressional District (exit poll data on the Hispanic vote was not available for these races).3
3
For more information, see the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials press release.
www.pewresearch.org
7 PEW RESEARCH CENTER
Nationally, Democrats won majorities of the Hispanic vote across many demographic subgroups in congressional races. For example, Hispanic women favored Democrats over Republicans by a margin of 66% to 32%, compared with 57% to 41% among Hispanic men. There were also differences by age. Democrats beat Republicans 68% to 28% among the youngest Latino voters (ages 18-29). The margin was smaller among those ages 30-44, with Democrats winning 56% of the vote. Democrats won 62% of the Latino vote among those ages 45-64 and 65% of those 65 or older.
Asked about a variety of pressing national priorities, 49% of Latino voters identified the economy as the most important issue facing the country, followed by health care (24%) and illegal immigration (16%). That ranking is similar to that of all U.S. voters, among whom 45% named the economy, 25% heath care and 14% illegal immigration.
FIGURE 4
Latinos Lean Democratic in Midterms % of each group who reported voting Democratic or Republican in their congressional district race this year Democrat
All Hispanics
Men
62
57
Republican
36
41
Women
66
32
18-29
68
28
30-44
56
42
45-64
62
37
65+
64
34
Notes: Shares of third-party candidates not shown.
The national exit poll also asked voters Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 exit poll results as reported by CNN. whether most illegal immigrants working in PEW RESEARCH CENTER the U.S. should be offered legal status or be deported. Three-in-four (74%) Latino voters supported offering legal status, while 21% said illegal immigrants should be deported. By comparison, 57% of U.S. voters said illegal immigrants should be able to gain legal status, and 38% said they should be deported.
www.pewresearch.org
8 PEW RESEARCH CENTER
References Krogstad, Jens Manuel and Mark Hugo Lopez, 2014. “Why measuring the demographics of voters on Election Day is difficult.” Washington, D.C.: Pew Research Center. November. http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/11/04/why-measuring-the-demographics-ofvoters-on-election-day-is-difficult/ Lopez, Mark Hugo, Jens Manuel Krogstad, Eileen Patten and Ana Gonzalez-Barrera. 2014. “Latino Voters and the 2014 Midterm Elections.” Washington, D.C. Pew Research Center, October. http://www.pewhispanic.org/2014/10/16/latino-voters-and-the-2014-midterm-elections/
www.pewresearch.org
9 PEW RESEARCH CENTER
Appendix: National and Selected State Results
FIGURE A1
National Vote for House, 2006-2014 % voting for… candidate in their Congressional district, by race and ethnicity Democrat
Republican
2014 White
38
60
Black
89
Latino
10
62
36
2010 White
37
60
Black
89
Latino
9
60
38
2006 White
47
51
Black Latino
89 69
10 30
Note: “Other/No Answer” responses not shown. Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 2006, 2010 and 2014 exit poll results as reported by NBC News and CNN. PEW RESEARCH CENTER
www.pewresearch.org
10 PEW RESEARCH CENTER
FIGURE A2
California Governor Races, 2006-2014 Brown (D)
Kashkari (R)
2014 White
54
46
Black
89
Latino
11
73
27
Brown (D)
Whitman (R)
2010 White
45
50
Black
77
Latino
21
64
Angelides (D)
31
Schwarzenegger (R)
2006 White
32
63
Black Latin o
70
56
27
39
Note: “Other/No Answer” responses not shown. Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 2006, 2010 and 2014 exit poll results as reported by NBC News and CNN. PEW RESEARCH CENTER
www.pewresearch.org
11 PEW RESEARCH CENTER
FIGURE A3
Florida Governor Races, 2006-2014 Crist (D)
Scott (R)
2014 White
37%
58%
Black
85
Latino
12
58
38 Sink (D)
Scott (R)
2010 White
41
Black
Latino
56
93
6
48
50
Davis (D)
Crist (R)
2006 White
38
Black
Latino
59
81
49
18
49
Note: “Other/No Answer” responses not shown. Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 2006, 2010 and 2014 exit poll results as reported by NBC News and CNN. PEW RESEARCH CENTER
www.pewresearch.org
12 PEW RESEARCH CENTER
FIGURE A4
Georgia Senate Race, 2014 Nunn (D) White
Perdue (R)
23%
74%
Black
92
Latino
7
57
42
Note: “Other/No Answer” responses not shown. Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 exit poll results as reported by NBC News. PEW RESEARCH CENTER
FIGURE A5
Georgia Governor Race, 2014 Carter (D)
White
23%
73%
Black
Latino
Deal (R)
89
53
10
47
Note: “Other/No Answer” responses not shown. Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 exit poll results as reported by NBC News. PEW RESEARCH CENTER
www.pewresearch.org
13 PEW RESEARCH CENTER
FIGURE A6
New York Governor Races, 2006-2014 Cuomo (D)
Astorino (R)
2014 White
46%
48%
Black
82
Latino
14
69
27
Cuomo (D)
Paladino (R)
2010 White
51
44
Black
93
Latino
6
81
Spitzer (D)
13
Faso (R)
2006 White
Black
Latino
66
32
89
80
10
20
Note: “Other/No Answer” responses not shown. Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 2006, 2010 and 2014 exit poll results as reported by NBC News and CNN. PEW RESEARCH CENTER
www.pewresearch.org
14 PEW RESEARCH CENTER
FIGURE A7
Texas Governor Races, 2006-2014 Davis (D)
Abbott (R)
2014 White
25
72
Black
92
Latino
7
55
44
White (D)
Perry (R)
2010 White
29
69
Black
88
Latino
11
61
Bell (D)
Perry (R)
38 Strayhorn (I)
Friedman (I)
44
18
2006 White
24
Black
Latino
63
41
16
31
13
15
18
4
9
Note: “Other/No Answer” responses not shown. Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 2006, 2010 and 2014 exit poll results as reported by NBC News and CNN. PEW RESEARCH CENTER
www.pewresearch.org
15 PEW RESEARCH CENTER
FIGURE A8
Texas Senate Race, 2014 Alameel (D)
White
22%
74%
Black
Latino
Cornyn (R)
87
47
10
48
Note: “Other/No Answer” responses not shown. Black voter results not available. Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 exit poll results as reported by NBC News. PEW RESEARCH CENTER
www.pewresearch.org
FOR RELEASE Friday, Nov. 7, 2014
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS REPORT: Mark Hugo Lopez, Director of Hispanic Research Molly Rohal, Communications Associate 202.419.4372 www.pewresearch.org
RECOMMENDED CITATION: Pew Research Center, Month, Year, “Report Title”
1 PEW RESEARCH CENTER
About This Report Exit poll results for this report were obtained from NBC News and CNN 2014 election websites on November 6, 2014 and are based on national and state exit poll surveys of voters as conducted by Edison Research for the National Election Pool. In addition to an analysis of the national Latino vote, the Latino vote in five states was examined. These states are California, Florida, Georgia, New York and Texas. This report was written by Jens Manuel Krogstad and Mark Hugo Lopez. Charts and tables were created by Jens Manuel Krogstad. Number-checking was done by Ana Gonzalez-Barrera and Anna Brown. Copy editing was done by Bruce Drake. Find related reports online at pewresearch.org/hispanic.
A Note on Terminology The terms “Latino” and “Hispanic” are used interchangeably in this report.
About Pew Research Center Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan fact tank that informs the public about the issues, attitudes and trends shaping America and the world. It does not take policy positions. It conducts public opinion polling, demographic research, media content analysis and other empirical social science research. The center studies U.S. politics and policy views; media and journalism; internet and technology; religion and public life; Hispanic trends; global attitudes and U.S. social and demographic trends. All of the center’s reports are available at www.pewresearch.org. Pew Research Center is a subsidiary of The Pew Charitable Trusts. Michael Dimock, President Elizabeth Mueller Gross, Vice President Robyn Tomlin, Chief Digital Officer Andrew Kohut, Founding Director
© Pew Research Center 2014
www.pewresearch.org
2 PEW RESEARCH CENTER
Table of Contents About This Report
1
A Note on Terminology
1
About Pew Research Center
1
Table of Contents
2
Hispanic Vote in Select State Races
4
Democratic Advantage Somewhat Larger among Latino Women
7
Latino Voters Say Economy Top Issue Facing the Country in 2014
7
References
8
Appendix: National and Selected State Results
9
www.pewresearch.org
3 PEW RESEARCH CENTER
BY Jens Manuel Krogstad AND Mark Hugo
Lopez
FIGURE 1
Democrats maintained a large edge among Latinos voting in Tuesday’s midterm elections, but in some states, Republican candidates won more than 40% of the Latino vote, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of National Election Pool exit poll data as reported by NBC News. Though Democrats comfortably won the Latino vote in nearly all states that had key Senate or gubernatorial races (and for which exit poll data is available), Republican candidates won many of those contests, and will take control of the U.S. Senate for the first time since 2007. In congressional races nationally, Democrats won the Latino vote by a margin of 62% to 36%. This is comparable to the last midterm cycle four years ago when six-in-ten (60%) Latinos voted for a Democratic candidate, but down from 2012 when Democrats took 68% of the Latino vote.
Vote for Congressional Candidates in National Elections % of each group who reported voting Democratic or Republican in their congressional district race Democrat
Republican
2014
62
Latino White
36
38
60 89
Black
10
2012
68
Latino White
30
39
59 91
Black
8
2010
60
Latino White Black
38
37
60 89
9
By comparison, Republicans won the white Note: “Other/No Answer” responses not shown. vote by a nearly as wide a margin — 60% to Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 2010, 2012 and 2014 38%, essentially unchanged from 2010 and National Election Pool exit poll results as reported by NBC News, 2012. Among black voters, 89% voted for the New York Times and CNN, respectively. Democratic candidate in their local PEW RESEARCH CENTER congressional election while 10% supported the Republican. This is unchanged from 2010. In 2012, 91% of black voters supported Democrats and 8% backed Republicans.
www.pewresearch.org
4 PEW RESEARCH CENTER
The national exit poll shows Latinos made up an estimated 8% of voters this year1. The share of Hispanics who voted remained unchanged from their estimated share in 2010 and 2006 despite the growing share of eligible voters (U.S. citizens ages 18 or older). This year, 11% of all eligible voters are Hispanic, up from 10.1% in 2010 and 8.6% in 2006 (Lopez, Krogstad, Patten and Gonzalez-Barrera, 2014). The unchanged Hispanic share of voters suggests that the Hispanic voter turnout rate may not have changed much from 2010, when 31.2% of Hispanic eligible voters cast a vote.2 FIGURE 2
Meanwhile, the national exit poll reports the estimated black voter share was 10% in 2006, 11% in 2010 and 12% in 2014. And the share of white voters has declined from 79% in 2006 to 77% in 2010 and now to 75%, reflecting growing diversity of the nation’s population and electorate.
Latino Vote in Key Senate Races, 2014 % of each group who reported voting Democratic or Republican in their Senate race Democrat Georgia All Hispanic
In several states where exit polling data for Hispanic voters is available, Democrats generally won the Hispanic vote in Senate and gubernatorial races. But in some states, Republicans did well among Hispanics, securing 40% or more of the vote.
Republican
45 57
53 42
Texas All Hispanic
34 47
62 48
Note: “Other/No Answer” responses not shown.
This held true for two Senate races. In Source: Pew Research Center analysis of the 2014 National Election Pool exit poll results as reported by NBC News. Georgia, Democrat Michelle Nunn won 57% of PEW RESEARCH CENTER the Latino vote to Republican David Perdue’s 42%. But Perdue won the election. In Texas, the Latino vote was split between incumbent Republican John Cornyn (48%) and Democrat David Alameel (47%), as Cornyn won support from nearly half of Latinos. Exit poll data is not available for the Latino vote in Colorado or North Carolina, two key states in this year’s election. While the national exit poll offers an estimate of the demographic composition of voters, for Hispanics, this estimate often differs from that of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey (Krogstad and Lopez, 2014). 2 In 2010, 6.6 million Hispanics voted according to a Pew Research Center analysis of the November Current Population Survey. Looked at another way, that’s a 31.2% voter turnout rate among Hispanic eligible voters. It was also little changed from 2006, when 32.3% of Hispanics voted (Lopez, Krogstad, Patten and Gonzalez-Barrera, 2014). Final estimates of Hispanic voter turnout and the Hispanic voter turnout rate will be available in the spring of 2015 when Census Bureau data becomes available. 1
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5 PEW RESEARCH CENTER
In races for governor, the three states with the largest number of Latino voters had contests — California, Texas, and Florida. In Florida, Gov. Rick Scott won re-election despite losing the Hispanic vote to Democrat Charlie Crist by a margin of 38% to 58%, according to the state exit poll. That’s a marked decline from 2010, when 50% of Hispanics voted for Scott and from 2006, when the Latino vote was split 49%-49% between the two parties.
FIGURE 3
Latino Vote in Key Governor Races, 2014 % of each group who reported voting Democratic or Republican in their governor race Democrat California All Hispanic
In the Texas race for governor, Democrat Wendy Davis won the Latino vote 55% to 44% but lost the election to Republican Greg Abbott.
59
41
73
27
Florida All Hispanic
Republican
47 58
48 38
Georgia
In California’s governor race, a greater share of Hispanics voted Democratic than in the previous two midterm elections. Gov. Jerry Brown (D) won the Hispanic vote by a margin of 73% to 27% in his victory over Republican Neel Kashkari this year. During the previous two elections, the Democratic candidate won 64% (2010) and 56% (2006) of the Hispanic vote.
All
45
Hispanic
53
New York All
54
Hispanic
47
41
69
27
Texas All Hispanic
53
39 55
59 44
Note: “Other/No Answer” responses not shown. In two other states with exit poll data for Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 National Election gubernatorial races, Latino voters gave their Pool exit poll results as reported by NBC News. support to Democratic candidates. In New PEW RESEARCH CENTER York, incumbent Democrat Andrew Cuomo defeated Republican Rob Astorino among Latino voters by a margin of 69% to 27%. And in Georgia, Republican Nathan Deal defeated Democrat Jason Carter in the race for governor. But Carter won a greater share of the Latino vote than Deal, by a margin of 53% to 47%, according to the state’s exit poll.
Several Hispanic candidates won elections to statewide offices and Congress this year. Two Hispanic Republicans who won races for governor in 2010—Susana Martinez in New Mexico and
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6 PEW RESEARCH CENTER
Brian Sandoval in Nevada— comfortably won re-election. Martinez won with 57% of the vote, and Sandoval 71% (exit poll data on the Hispanic vote in each state was not available). This year saw five new Latinos elected to Congress, according to the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials. In Florida, Republican Carlos Curbelo defeated incumbent Democrat Joe Garcia in the state’s 26th Congressional District. In West Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District, Republican Alex Mooney was elected, while. Ruben Gallego (D) won Arizona’s 7th Congressional District. In California, Democrat Pete Aguilar won in the 31st Congressional District, and Democrat Norma Torres won in the 35th Congressional District (exit poll data on the Hispanic vote was not available for these races).3
3
For more information, see the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials press release.
www.pewresearch.org
7 PEW RESEARCH CENTER
Nationally, Democrats won majorities of the Hispanic vote across many demographic subgroups in congressional races. For example, Hispanic women favored Democrats over Republicans by a margin of 66% to 32%, compared with 57% to 41% among Hispanic men. There were also differences by age. Democrats beat Republicans 68% to 28% among the youngest Latino voters (ages 18-29). The margin was smaller among those ages 30-44, with Democrats winning 56% of the vote. Democrats won 62% of the Latino vote among those ages 45-64 and 65% of those 65 or older.
Asked about a variety of pressing national priorities, 49% of Latino voters identified the economy as the most important issue facing the country, followed by health care (24%) and illegal immigration (16%). That ranking is similar to that of all U.S. voters, among whom 45% named the economy, 25% heath care and 14% illegal immigration.
FIGURE 4
Latinos Lean Democratic in Midterms % of each group who reported voting Democratic or Republican in their congressional district race this year Democrat
All Hispanics
Men
62
57
Republican
36
41
Women
66
32
18-29
68
28
30-44
56
42
45-64
62
37
65+
64
34
Notes: Shares of third-party candidates not shown.
The national exit poll also asked voters Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 exit poll results as reported by CNN. whether most illegal immigrants working in PEW RESEARCH CENTER the U.S. should be offered legal status or be deported. Three-in-four (74%) Latino voters supported offering legal status, while 21% said illegal immigrants should be deported. By comparison, 57% of U.S. voters said illegal immigrants should be able to gain legal status, and 38% said they should be deported.
www.pewresearch.org
8 PEW RESEARCH CENTER
References Krogstad, Jens Manuel and Mark Hugo Lopez, 2014. “Why measuring the demographics of voters on Election Day is difficult.” Washington, D.C.: Pew Research Center. November. http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/11/04/why-measuring-the-demographics-ofvoters-on-election-day-is-difficult/ Lopez, Mark Hugo, Jens Manuel Krogstad, Eileen Patten and Ana Gonzalez-Barrera. 2014. “Latino Voters and the 2014 Midterm Elections.” Washington, D.C. Pew Research Center, October. http://www.pewhispanic.org/2014/10/16/latino-voters-and-the-2014-midterm-elections/
www.pewresearch.org
9 PEW RESEARCH CENTER
Appendix: National and Selected State Results
FIGURE A1
National Vote for House, 2006-2014 % voting for… candidate in their Congressional district, by race and ethnicity Democrat
Republican
2014 White
38
60
Black
89
Latino
10
62
36
2010 White
37
60
Black
89
Latino
9
60
38
2006 White
47
51
Black Latino
89 69
10 30
Note: “Other/No Answer” responses not shown. Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 2006, 2010 and 2014 exit poll results as reported by NBC News and CNN. PEW RESEARCH CENTER
www.pewresearch.org
10 PEW RESEARCH CENTER
FIGURE A2
California Governor Races, 2006-2014 Brown (D)
Kashkari (R)
2014 White
54
46
Black
89
Latino
11
73
27
Brown (D)
Whitman (R)
2010 White
45
50
Black
77
Latino
21
64
Angelides (D)
31
Schwarzenegger (R)
2006 White
32
63
Black Latin o
70
56
27
39
Note: “Other/No Answer” responses not shown. Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 2006, 2010 and 2014 exit poll results as reported by NBC News and CNN. PEW RESEARCH CENTER
www.pewresearch.org
11 PEW RESEARCH CENTER
FIGURE A3
Florida Governor Races, 2006-2014 Crist (D)
Scott (R)
2014 White
37%
58%
Black
85
Latino
12
58
38 Sink (D)
Scott (R)
2010 White
41
Black
Latino
56
93
6
48
50
Davis (D)
Crist (R)
2006 White
38
Black
Latino
59
81
49
18
49
Note: “Other/No Answer” responses not shown. Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 2006, 2010 and 2014 exit poll results as reported by NBC News and CNN. PEW RESEARCH CENTER
www.pewresearch.org
12 PEW RESEARCH CENTER
FIGURE A4
Georgia Senate Race, 2014 Nunn (D) White
Perdue (R)
23%
74%
Black
92
Latino
7
57
42
Note: “Other/No Answer” responses not shown. Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 exit poll results as reported by NBC News. PEW RESEARCH CENTER
FIGURE A5
Georgia Governor Race, 2014 Carter (D)
White
23%
73%
Black
Latino
Deal (R)
89
53
10
47
Note: “Other/No Answer” responses not shown. Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 exit poll results as reported by NBC News. PEW RESEARCH CENTER
www.pewresearch.org
13 PEW RESEARCH CENTER
FIGURE A6
New York Governor Races, 2006-2014 Cuomo (D)
Astorino (R)
2014 White
46%
48%
Black
82
Latino
14
69
27
Cuomo (D)
Paladino (R)
2010 White
51
44
Black
93
Latino
6
81
Spitzer (D)
13
Faso (R)
2006 White
Black
Latino
66
32
89
80
10
20
Note: “Other/No Answer” responses not shown. Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 2006, 2010 and 2014 exit poll results as reported by NBC News and CNN. PEW RESEARCH CENTER
www.pewresearch.org
14 PEW RESEARCH CENTER
FIGURE A7
Texas Governor Races, 2006-2014 Davis (D)
Abbott (R)
2014 White
25
72
Black
92
Latino
7
55
44
White (D)
Perry (R)
2010 White
29
69
Black
88
Latino
11
61
Bell (D)
Perry (R)
38 Strayhorn (I)
Friedman (I)
44
18
2006 White
24
Black
Latino
63
41
16
31
13
15
18
4
9
Note: “Other/No Answer” responses not shown. Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 2006, 2010 and 2014 exit poll results as reported by NBC News and CNN. PEW RESEARCH CENTER
www.pewresearch.org
15 PEW RESEARCH CENTER
FIGURE A8
Texas Senate Race, 2014 Alameel (D)
White
22%
74%
Black
Latino
Cornyn (R)
87
47
10
48
Note: “Other/No Answer” responses not shown. Black voter results not available. Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 exit poll results as reported by NBC News. PEW RESEARCH CENTER
www.pewresearch.org
