20160204 Urbanation Presentation
BILD High-Rise Forum February 4, 2016 Thank you to our Corporate Sponsors!
GTA Condo Market Outlook BILD HIGH RISE FORUM FEBRUARY 4, 2016
we’ve got the answers
RECORD YEAR FOR GTA CONDOMINIUM APARTMENTS Annual New, Resale and Rental Condo Activity Greater Toronto Area: 2011 to 2015 30,000
Rentals
Resales
New
25,000
10,000 5,000 0
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source: Urbanation Inc., Toronto Real Estate Board
2015
20,753
27,166
15,000
20,709
20,000
LOW-RISE PRICING DRIVING CONDO ABSORPTIONS Annual Industry Survey Results Which Factor had the Greatest Ipact on Absorptions in 2015?
High low-rise prices/lack of inventory Attractive pricing/locations for 2015 launches Fewer new launches in the core Price discounts/cash back for existing inventory Rental guarantee programs Increased broker commissions Reduced deposits 0% Source: Urbanation Inc.
10%
20%
30%
40%
905 MARKET REGAINS SHARE 416 vs 905 New Condo Sales Greater Toronto Area: 4-Quarter Rolling Totals 25,000 416
905
20,000 15,849 15,000 10,000 4,848 5,000 0
Source: Urbanation Inc.
NEW CONDO % SOLD AT RECORD HIGH New Condo Apartments in Development GTA: 2005 to 2015 90%
120,000 100,000
Units in Development
85%
% Sold 80,000
80%
60,000
75%
40,000
70%
20,000
65%
0
60% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Urbanation Inc.
STARTS KEEPING CONSTRUCTION ELEVATED Launch Units, Starts and Completions Greater Toronto Area : 2014 and 2015 27,000
2014
2015 21,133
22,000 18,375
19,327
19,130
17,000
19,702
14,981
12,000 7,000 2,000 Launches
Starts Source: Urbanation Inc.
Completions
SALES SHIFT TO UNDER CONSTRUCTION AND BUILT UNITS New Condo Apartment Sales by Construction Status Greater Toronto Area: 2014 and 2015
16,000 14,000
14,934 13,797 -8%
2014 Annual Sales 2015 Annual Sales
12,000 10,000 +19%
8,000 6,000
4,554
5,416 +30%
4,000 1,183 1,540
2,000 0 Pre-Construction
Under Construction Source: Urbanation Inc
Completed
UNABSORBED STANDING INVENTORY FALLS IN 2015 Unsold Inventory and Total Share Sold - Completed Projects Greater Toronto Area : Q1-2012 to Q2-2015 % Occ and Reg Sold
Unsold Units 2,000
96%
97%
1,750
96%
1,500
95% 94%
1,250
93% 1,427
1,000 750
92% 91%
Source: Urbanation Inc.
Q4-15
Q3-15
Q2-15
Q1-15
Q4-14
Q3-14
Q2-14
Q1-14
Q4-13
Q3-13
Q2-13
88%
Q1-13
0
Q4-12
89% Q3-12
250 Q2-12
90%
Q1-12
500
416 SITES, MIDRISE HEIGHTS Annual Industry Survey Results What is the Condo Market's Greatest Opportunity for Growth in 2016?
Mid-rise buildings in former City of Toronto
Large scale projects in former City of Toronto
Projects in the 905 region (York, Peel, Halton, Durham)
Projects in outer 416 area (North York, Scarborough, Etobicoke) Source: Urbanation Inc.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
STRONGEST GROWTH IN MIDRISE BUILDINGS New Condominium Sales by Building Height Greater Toronto Area: 2014 vs 2015 2014 Sales
2015 Sales
Y-Y % Chg
10,000
40%
9,000
24%
8,000
15%
20%
18%
7,000
0%
6,000 5,000
-20%
-22%
4,000 -40%
3,000 2,000
-60%
1,000
-69%
0
-80% Up to 4
5 to 11
12 to 24
Storeys Source: Urbanation Inc.
25 to 49
50+
NORTH MIDTOWN LEADS 2015 SALES Annual New Condominium Apartment Sales by Submarket Greater Toronto Area: 2014-2015 2014 Total
2015 Total
3000
0
Source: Urbanation Inc.
683
754
810
847
905
947
500
1,020
1000
1,089
1500
1,816
2000
2,441
2500
GO EAST AND NORTH, STAY CLOSE TO YONGE
Rank Municipality
Submarket
Top 10 Selling Condo Apartment Projects Greater Toronto Area: 2015 Project Developer
Sales % Sold
1
Toronto
North Midtow n
Art Shoppe Lofts + Condos
Freed Developments/Capital Developments
600
91%
2
Toronto
East Bloor/The Village
The Clover
Cresford Developments
490
96%
3
Toronto
Dow ntow n East
Grid Condos
CentreCourt Developments
476
90%
4
Toronto
North Midtow n
Citylights on Broadw ay - South Tow er
Pemberton Group
381
77%
5
Toronto
North Midtow n
150 Redpath
Freed Developments/Capital Developments
359
66%
6
Etobicoke
Etobicoke Centre
Park Tow ers at IQ
Remington Group
507
98%
7
Toronto
North Midtow n
Citylights on Broadw ay - North Tow er
Pemberton Group
319
91%
8
Toronto
East Bloor/The Village
Stanley Condos
Tribute Communities
303
64%
9
Toronto
Harbourfront
Daniels Waterfront - Lighthouse Tow er
Daniels Corporation
296
55%
10
Toronto
Dow ntow n East
East United Condos
Andiel/Signature/ Berkshire
288
100%
Total: 4,019 Source: Urbanation Inc.
2016 FORECAST Annual New Condo Apartment Sales Greater Toronto Area: 2005-2015; 2016 Forecast 30,000 Launches
Sales
25,000 20,753
21,500
20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016f Source: Urbanation Inc.
SUPPLY GROWTH SET TO PEAK IN 2017 Annual Condo Completions and Scheduled Occupancies Greater Toronto Area: 2011 to 2018 35,000 10,546 UNITS OCCUPYING
30,000
1,577
10,000 5,000
22,602
8,969
15,000
24,773
20,000
32,469
25,000
0 2011
2012
2013
Completions
2014
2015
Expected Completions
2016
2017
Occupying
2018+
NEW CONDO PRICE GROWTH STABLE Annual Growth for New and Resale Condo Prices PSF Greater Toronto Area: Q1-2011 to Q4-2015 25.0% 20.0%
New Resale
15.0% 10.0%
6.5%
5.0% 3.0%
0.0% -5.0%
Source: Urbanation Inc., Toronto Real Estate Board
CONDO PRICE GROWTH IMPACTED BY SOFT COSTS 2015 was the year of the incentive package Recent Offerings have included:
10% discount off purchase price Gift cards, cars and trips Cashbacks up to $25K Reduced or eliminated development levies Reduced deposit programs for pre-construction projects
4% Commissions Standard BUT… Up to 8% being offered – 5% to 6% Graduated and upfront payouts
Power Broker Groups and Special Incentive Events
TIGHTEST RESALE CONDITIONS SINCE 2011 Sales-to-Listings Ratio (SLR) and Active Listings GTA: Q4-2011 to Q4-2015
6,000
SLR
Balanced Market Boundaries
0.60
5,000
0.50
4,000
0.40
3,000
0.30
2,000
0.20
1,000
0.10
0
0.00 Source: Urbanation Inc., Toronto Real Estate Board
LIMITED RESALE TURNOVER IN NEW PROJECTS New Condo Project MLS Annual Turnover: Resale vs. Rental GTA: 2011 to 2015 40% New Project Rental Turnover 35%
32%
New Project Resale Turnover
30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5%
3% 0% 2011
2012
2013 Source: Urbanation, TREB
2014
2015
RENTAL TURNOVER MODERATE IN MOST BUILDINGS Rental Turnover as Share of Annual Volume Greater Toronto Area: 2015
12,000
Rentals
40%
% of 2015 Rentals
10,000 8,000
26%
6,000 13%
14%
4,000
8%
2,000 0
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board compiled by Urbanation
45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
CONDO RENTAL SUPPLY LEVELING OUT Growth in Condo Rental Supply and Average Vacancy Rates Greater Toronto Area: 2010 to 2015 16,000 14,000 12,000
3.0% Net Change in Condo Rental Stock 12,686 Vacancy Rate (%)
2.5% 2.0%
10,000 1.8%
8,000 6,000
1.5% 1.0%
4,000 0.5%
2,000 0
0.0% 2010
2011
2012 Source: CMHC
2013
2014
2015
RATE OF RENT GROWTH HIGHER AT END OF 2015 Quarterly Registrations and Index Rent Growth Greater Toronto Area: 2012 to 2015
7,000
Registrations
7.0%
6,000
Index Rent Growth $psf
6.0%
5,000
5.0%
4,000
4.0%
3,000
3.0%
2,000
2.0%
1,000
1.0%
0
0.0%
Source: Urbanation Inc.
NEW PRODUCT, LIMITED SUPPLY PUSH 905 RENTS HIGHER Annual Growth in Condo Apartment Rents PSF by Region Greater Toronto Area: Q4-2015 7.0% 5.7%
6.0% 4.9%
5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0%
0.7%
0.0% Former City of Toronto
Outer 416 Source: TREB, Urbanation Inc.
905
CONDO RENTS FLAT IN THE CORE Average Condo Apartment Rents PSF by Region Greater Toronto Area: Q4 Periods from 2011 to 2015 $3.00 $2.80
$2.80
1% y/y
$2.60 $2.40 $2.20
Former City of Toronto Outer 416 905
$2.40 5% y/y
$2.03 $2.00 6% y/y
$1.80 $1.60 2011 - Q4
2012 - Q4
2013 - Q4
2014 - Q4
Source: TREB, Urbanation Inc.
2015 - Q4
KEY RENTAL CORRIDORS BY INDEX RENTS
UNIT SIZES AT THEIR MOST COMPACT
Avg New Launch Condo Sf: 674 sf
Avg Resale Sf: 879 sf
Avg Rental Sf: 747 sf
MORE BALANCE BY TYPE BUT UNITS STILL SHRINKING Suite Type Breakdown of New Project Openings by Year GTA: 2010 to 2015
0B
1B
1BD
2B
2BD
3B +
100%
4%
3%
3%
4%
5%
4%
90%
10%
10%
11%
8%
10%
7%
23%
21%
21%
21%
35%
35%
37%
23%
26%
23%
4%
4% 2011
5% 2012
80% 70%
27%
27%
60% 50%
32% 31%
40%
32%
30% 20%
29%
21%
25%
6%
6%
5%
2013
2014
2015
10% 0%
2010
Source: Urbanation Inc.
PURPOSE-BUILT RENTAL DEVELOPMENT TO INCREASE? Purpose-Built Outlook
Will begin to decline 9%
Will grow rapidly 11%
Will stabilize at current levels 16%
Will increase modestly 64%
Source: Urbanation Inc.
PURPOSE-BUILT CONSTRUCTION AT 24 YEAR HIGH Purpose-Built Rental Apartment Units in the Development Pipeline Greater Toronto Area: Q4-2015
20,000
Under Construction
Proposed
17,500 15,000 12,500
16,649
17,045
10,117
10,513
6,532
6,532
Q3-2015
Q4-2015
13,017 11,665
10,000 7,500
9,302 9,207
5,000 2,500 2,458
3,715
0 Q1-2015
Q2-2015 Source: Urbanation
THE FOREIGN OWNERSHIP QUESTION Annual Industry Survey Results What Share of New Condo Sales in 2016 cam e from Foreign Investors? 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Less than 5%
5% to 10%
11% to 15% Source: Urbanation Inc.
16% to 20%
More than 20%
RISING LAND PRICES CAUSE FOR CONCERN Annual Industry Survey Results What is the Condo Market's Greatest Challenge in 2016?
Land prices vis-à-vis selling prices Buyer confidence (market perception) Obtaining development approvals Higher interest rates Higher development charges Access to financing
Source: Urbanation Inc.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
APARTMENT SITE SALES ON THE RISE Annual Apartment Site Acquisitions Greater Toronto Area: 2010 to 2015 2,500,000,000
120 Total Value (left) Total Sales (right)
2,000,000,000
100 80
1,500,000,000 60 1,000,000,000 40 500,000,000
20
0
0 2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: Marsh Report, Teranet
2014
2015
WOULD YOU BUY A CONDO? Annual Industry Survey Results Would you Buy a New Condo in 2016?
No
Yes
53%
47%
Source: Urbanation Inc.
IMMIGRATION TO TORONTO SLOWING
Annual Immigration Levels City of Toronto: 2004 to 2014 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,363 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: Statistics Canada
2011
2012
2013
2014
MIGRATION TO ONTARIO IS GROWING Provincial Annual Migration Levels Ontario: 2005 to 2015 160,000 Immigration
140,000
Interprovincial In-Migration
120,000 100,000
95,479
80,000
73,030
60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: Statistics Canada
2012
2013
2014
2015
ROBUST TORONTO ECONOMY Annual Change in Employment Toronto CMA: 2005 to 2015 160,000 140,000 120,000 89,300
100,000 10-year average
80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 -20,000 -40,000 -60,000 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: Statistics Canada
2012
2013
2014
2015
Urbanation Inc. Pauline Lierman [email protected] 416.922.2200
we’ve got the answers
GTA Condo Market Outlook BILD HIGH RISE FORUM FEBRUARY 4, 2016
we’ve got the answers
RECORD YEAR FOR GTA CONDOMINIUM APARTMENTS Annual New, Resale and Rental Condo Activity Greater Toronto Area: 2011 to 2015 30,000
Rentals
Resales
New
25,000
10,000 5,000 0
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source: Urbanation Inc., Toronto Real Estate Board
2015
20,753
27,166
15,000
20,709
20,000
LOW-RISE PRICING DRIVING CONDO ABSORPTIONS Annual Industry Survey Results Which Factor had the Greatest Ipact on Absorptions in 2015?
High low-rise prices/lack of inventory Attractive pricing/locations for 2015 launches Fewer new launches in the core Price discounts/cash back for existing inventory Rental guarantee programs Increased broker commissions Reduced deposits 0% Source: Urbanation Inc.
10%
20%
30%
40%
905 MARKET REGAINS SHARE 416 vs 905 New Condo Sales Greater Toronto Area: 4-Quarter Rolling Totals 25,000 416
905
20,000 15,849 15,000 10,000 4,848 5,000 0
Source: Urbanation Inc.
NEW CONDO % SOLD AT RECORD HIGH New Condo Apartments in Development GTA: 2005 to 2015 90%
120,000 100,000
Units in Development
85%
% Sold 80,000
80%
60,000
75%
40,000
70%
20,000
65%
0
60% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Urbanation Inc.
STARTS KEEPING CONSTRUCTION ELEVATED Launch Units, Starts and Completions Greater Toronto Area : 2014 and 2015 27,000
2014
2015 21,133
22,000 18,375
19,327
19,130
17,000
19,702
14,981
12,000 7,000 2,000 Launches
Starts Source: Urbanation Inc.
Completions
SALES SHIFT TO UNDER CONSTRUCTION AND BUILT UNITS New Condo Apartment Sales by Construction Status Greater Toronto Area: 2014 and 2015
16,000 14,000
14,934 13,797 -8%
2014 Annual Sales 2015 Annual Sales
12,000 10,000 +19%
8,000 6,000
4,554
5,416 +30%
4,000 1,183 1,540
2,000 0 Pre-Construction
Under Construction Source: Urbanation Inc
Completed
UNABSORBED STANDING INVENTORY FALLS IN 2015 Unsold Inventory and Total Share Sold - Completed Projects Greater Toronto Area : Q1-2012 to Q2-2015 % Occ and Reg Sold
Unsold Units 2,000
96%
97%
1,750
96%
1,500
95% 94%
1,250
93% 1,427
1,000 750
92% 91%
Source: Urbanation Inc.
Q4-15
Q3-15
Q2-15
Q1-15
Q4-14
Q3-14
Q2-14
Q1-14
Q4-13
Q3-13
Q2-13
88%
Q1-13
0
Q4-12
89% Q3-12
250 Q2-12
90%
Q1-12
500
416 SITES, MIDRISE HEIGHTS Annual Industry Survey Results What is the Condo Market's Greatest Opportunity for Growth in 2016?
Mid-rise buildings in former City of Toronto
Large scale projects in former City of Toronto
Projects in the 905 region (York, Peel, Halton, Durham)
Projects in outer 416 area (North York, Scarborough, Etobicoke) Source: Urbanation Inc.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
STRONGEST GROWTH IN MIDRISE BUILDINGS New Condominium Sales by Building Height Greater Toronto Area: 2014 vs 2015 2014 Sales
2015 Sales
Y-Y % Chg
10,000
40%
9,000
24%
8,000
15%
20%
18%
7,000
0%
6,000 5,000
-20%
-22%
4,000 -40%
3,000 2,000
-60%
1,000
-69%
0
-80% Up to 4
5 to 11
12 to 24
Storeys Source: Urbanation Inc.
25 to 49
50+
NORTH MIDTOWN LEADS 2015 SALES Annual New Condominium Apartment Sales by Submarket Greater Toronto Area: 2014-2015 2014 Total
2015 Total
3000
0
Source: Urbanation Inc.
683
754
810
847
905
947
500
1,020
1000
1,089
1500
1,816
2000
2,441
2500
GO EAST AND NORTH, STAY CLOSE TO YONGE
Rank Municipality
Submarket
Top 10 Selling Condo Apartment Projects Greater Toronto Area: 2015 Project Developer
Sales % Sold
1
Toronto
North Midtow n
Art Shoppe Lofts + Condos
Freed Developments/Capital Developments
600
91%
2
Toronto
East Bloor/The Village
The Clover
Cresford Developments
490
96%
3
Toronto
Dow ntow n East
Grid Condos
CentreCourt Developments
476
90%
4
Toronto
North Midtow n
Citylights on Broadw ay - South Tow er
Pemberton Group
381
77%
5
Toronto
North Midtow n
150 Redpath
Freed Developments/Capital Developments
359
66%
6
Etobicoke
Etobicoke Centre
Park Tow ers at IQ
Remington Group
507
98%
7
Toronto
North Midtow n
Citylights on Broadw ay - North Tow er
Pemberton Group
319
91%
8
Toronto
East Bloor/The Village
Stanley Condos
Tribute Communities
303
64%
9
Toronto
Harbourfront
Daniels Waterfront - Lighthouse Tow er
Daniels Corporation
296
55%
10
Toronto
Dow ntow n East
East United Condos
Andiel/Signature/ Berkshire
288
100%
Total: 4,019 Source: Urbanation Inc.
2016 FORECAST Annual New Condo Apartment Sales Greater Toronto Area: 2005-2015; 2016 Forecast 30,000 Launches
Sales
25,000 20,753
21,500
20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016f Source: Urbanation Inc.
SUPPLY GROWTH SET TO PEAK IN 2017 Annual Condo Completions and Scheduled Occupancies Greater Toronto Area: 2011 to 2018 35,000 10,546 UNITS OCCUPYING
30,000
1,577
10,000 5,000
22,602
8,969
15,000
24,773
20,000
32,469
25,000
0 2011
2012
2013
Completions
2014
2015
Expected Completions
2016
2017
Occupying
2018+
NEW CONDO PRICE GROWTH STABLE Annual Growth for New and Resale Condo Prices PSF Greater Toronto Area: Q1-2011 to Q4-2015 25.0% 20.0%
New Resale
15.0% 10.0%
6.5%
5.0% 3.0%
0.0% -5.0%
Source: Urbanation Inc., Toronto Real Estate Board
CONDO PRICE GROWTH IMPACTED BY SOFT COSTS 2015 was the year of the incentive package Recent Offerings have included:
10% discount off purchase price Gift cards, cars and trips Cashbacks up to $25K Reduced or eliminated development levies Reduced deposit programs for pre-construction projects
4% Commissions Standard BUT… Up to 8% being offered – 5% to 6% Graduated and upfront payouts
Power Broker Groups and Special Incentive Events
TIGHTEST RESALE CONDITIONS SINCE 2011 Sales-to-Listings Ratio (SLR) and Active Listings GTA: Q4-2011 to Q4-2015
6,000
SLR
Balanced Market Boundaries
0.60
5,000
0.50
4,000
0.40
3,000
0.30
2,000
0.20
1,000
0.10
0
0.00 Source: Urbanation Inc., Toronto Real Estate Board
LIMITED RESALE TURNOVER IN NEW PROJECTS New Condo Project MLS Annual Turnover: Resale vs. Rental GTA: 2011 to 2015 40% New Project Rental Turnover 35%
32%
New Project Resale Turnover
30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5%
3% 0% 2011
2012
2013 Source: Urbanation, TREB
2014
2015
RENTAL TURNOVER MODERATE IN MOST BUILDINGS Rental Turnover as Share of Annual Volume Greater Toronto Area: 2015
12,000
Rentals
40%
% of 2015 Rentals
10,000 8,000
26%
6,000 13%
14%
4,000
8%
2,000 0
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board compiled by Urbanation
45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
CONDO RENTAL SUPPLY LEVELING OUT Growth in Condo Rental Supply and Average Vacancy Rates Greater Toronto Area: 2010 to 2015 16,000 14,000 12,000
3.0% Net Change in Condo Rental Stock 12,686 Vacancy Rate (%)
2.5% 2.0%
10,000 1.8%
8,000 6,000
1.5% 1.0%
4,000 0.5%
2,000 0
0.0% 2010
2011
2012 Source: CMHC
2013
2014
2015
RATE OF RENT GROWTH HIGHER AT END OF 2015 Quarterly Registrations and Index Rent Growth Greater Toronto Area: 2012 to 2015
7,000
Registrations
7.0%
6,000
Index Rent Growth $psf
6.0%
5,000
5.0%
4,000
4.0%
3,000
3.0%
2,000
2.0%
1,000
1.0%
0
0.0%
Source: Urbanation Inc.
NEW PRODUCT, LIMITED SUPPLY PUSH 905 RENTS HIGHER Annual Growth in Condo Apartment Rents PSF by Region Greater Toronto Area: Q4-2015 7.0% 5.7%
6.0% 4.9%
5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0%
0.7%
0.0% Former City of Toronto
Outer 416 Source: TREB, Urbanation Inc.
905
CONDO RENTS FLAT IN THE CORE Average Condo Apartment Rents PSF by Region Greater Toronto Area: Q4 Periods from 2011 to 2015 $3.00 $2.80
$2.80
1% y/y
$2.60 $2.40 $2.20
Former City of Toronto Outer 416 905
$2.40 5% y/y
$2.03 $2.00 6% y/y
$1.80 $1.60 2011 - Q4
2012 - Q4
2013 - Q4
2014 - Q4
Source: TREB, Urbanation Inc.
2015 - Q4
KEY RENTAL CORRIDORS BY INDEX RENTS
UNIT SIZES AT THEIR MOST COMPACT
Avg New Launch Condo Sf: 674 sf
Avg Resale Sf: 879 sf
Avg Rental Sf: 747 sf
MORE BALANCE BY TYPE BUT UNITS STILL SHRINKING Suite Type Breakdown of New Project Openings by Year GTA: 2010 to 2015
0B
1B
1BD
2B
2BD
3B +
100%
4%
3%
3%
4%
5%
4%
90%
10%
10%
11%
8%
10%
7%
23%
21%
21%
21%
35%
35%
37%
23%
26%
23%
4%
4% 2011
5% 2012
80% 70%
27%
27%
60% 50%
32% 31%
40%
32%
30% 20%
29%
21%
25%
6%
6%
5%
2013
2014
2015
10% 0%
2010
Source: Urbanation Inc.
PURPOSE-BUILT RENTAL DEVELOPMENT TO INCREASE? Purpose-Built Outlook
Will begin to decline 9%
Will grow rapidly 11%
Will stabilize at current levels 16%
Will increase modestly 64%
Source: Urbanation Inc.
PURPOSE-BUILT CONSTRUCTION AT 24 YEAR HIGH Purpose-Built Rental Apartment Units in the Development Pipeline Greater Toronto Area: Q4-2015
20,000
Under Construction
Proposed
17,500 15,000 12,500
16,649
17,045
10,117
10,513
6,532
6,532
Q3-2015
Q4-2015
13,017 11,665
10,000 7,500
9,302 9,207
5,000 2,500 2,458
3,715
0 Q1-2015
Q2-2015 Source: Urbanation
THE FOREIGN OWNERSHIP QUESTION Annual Industry Survey Results What Share of New Condo Sales in 2016 cam e from Foreign Investors? 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Less than 5%
5% to 10%
11% to 15% Source: Urbanation Inc.
16% to 20%
More than 20%
RISING LAND PRICES CAUSE FOR CONCERN Annual Industry Survey Results What is the Condo Market's Greatest Challenge in 2016?
Land prices vis-à-vis selling prices Buyer confidence (market perception) Obtaining development approvals Higher interest rates Higher development charges Access to financing
Source: Urbanation Inc.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
APARTMENT SITE SALES ON THE RISE Annual Apartment Site Acquisitions Greater Toronto Area: 2010 to 2015 2,500,000,000
120 Total Value (left) Total Sales (right)
2,000,000,000
100 80
1,500,000,000 60 1,000,000,000 40 500,000,000
20
0
0 2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: Marsh Report, Teranet
2014
2015
WOULD YOU BUY A CONDO? Annual Industry Survey Results Would you Buy a New Condo in 2016?
No
Yes
53%
47%
Source: Urbanation Inc.
IMMIGRATION TO TORONTO SLOWING
Annual Immigration Levels City of Toronto: 2004 to 2014 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,363 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: Statistics Canada
2011
2012
2013
2014
MIGRATION TO ONTARIO IS GROWING Provincial Annual Migration Levels Ontario: 2005 to 2015 160,000 Immigration
140,000
Interprovincial In-Migration
120,000 100,000
95,479
80,000
73,030
60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: Statistics Canada
2012
2013
2014
2015
ROBUST TORONTO ECONOMY Annual Change in Employment Toronto CMA: 2005 to 2015 160,000 140,000 120,000 89,300
100,000 10-year average
80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 -20,000 -40,000 -60,000 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: Statistics Canada
2012
2013
2014
2015
Urbanation Inc. Pauline Lierman [email protected] 416.922.2200
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