4Q15 earnings beat forecast on stronger Non-NII and NIM
Bangkok Bank Outperform (16E TP Bt190.00)
Earnings Review
Close Bt145.50
Banking January 21, 2016
Beat forecast/Below forecast/In line
4Q15 earnings beat forecast on stronger Non‐NII and NIM Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
18.732
20.823
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐4.1%
‐3.5%
Reuters / Bloomberg
BBL.BK/BBL TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
1,908.84
Par (Bt)
10.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
278.00/7,654.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
25.00/30.72
52 week High / Low (Bt)
197.00/142.50
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
4,374.00
NVDR (%)
32.67
Estimated free float (%)
97.47
Beta
0.69
URL
www.bangkokbank.com
CGR
Level 4 (Certified)
Anti‐corruption
Prapharas Nonthapiboon Analyst, no 17836 [email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5872
Cheap valuations and healthy balance sheet are main appeals We maintain an Outperform rating for BBL as we see its cheap valuations (with its P/BV near the ‐2.5SD level, close to the low level during the crisis in 2009) and its healthiest balance sheet compared to peers, especially with respect to its reserve cushion, remaining BBL’s main price catalysts. We also view that BBL will be in a better position to withstand the macro headwinds. 4Q15 net profit above our forecast but quite in line with the street BBL’s 4Q15 net profit (NP) of Bt7.7bn (‐12% YoY, ‐15% QoQ) was ahead of our forecast of Bt6.2bn, but quite in line with the street estimate of Bt7.4bn. The higher‐than‐expected results were due largely to higher‐ than‐expected net fee income and NIM as well as higher‐than‐expected gain on investment, with the bank booking large gain of Bt1.1bn in 4Q15. 4Q15 net profit stood at Bt7.7bn (‐12% YoY, ‐15% QoQ) The main reasons for the NP drop YoY were a much higher provision. Meanwhile, the lower extra gain QoQ (~Bt3bn in 3Q15 vs. ~Bt1.4bn in 4Q15) and higher operating expenses in every 4Q on seasonality were the main reasons for the NP drop QoQ. 2015 net profit stood at Bt34.2bn (‐6% YoY) The decline in NP was due largely to lower NIM on the rate cut impact and the higher provision. Meanwhile, core profit still grew by 3% YoY backed by modest loan growth of 5% YoY and 3% QoQ and the robust growth in non‐interest income by 28%, backed mainly by sound net fee income growth of 11%. Moreover, the main earnings cushion for BBL in 2015 came from its ability to generate huge gain on investments (Bt5.8bn in 2015 vs. Bt4.1bn in 2014) as well as gain on disposal of assets (Bt3.0bn in 2015 vs. Bt2.0bn in 2014). Given such extra gains, the bank set aside a much higher provision at Bt14.7bn (78 bps) vs. Bt8.7bn (49 bps) in 2014. Asset quality improved QoQ, mainly on write‐offs The bank’s NPLs for 4Q15 declined by Bt1.9bn or 3% QoQ, mainly due to the normal pattern wherein the bank usually does higher loan write‐offs at yearend. Meanwhile, its NPL ratio for 4Q15 was stable QoQ at 2.8% but it still increased from 2.1% in 2014. Its reserve‐to‐NPL ratio in 4Q15 was higher QoQ to 185% from 173% but still lower vs. 204% in 4Q14. Meanwhile, its reserve to the BoT’s minimum required reserve was lower at 213% vs. 217% in 3Q15 and 277% in 4Q14 but it remained the healthiest vs. peers. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec PPOP (Btmn) Provision (Btmn) Net Profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) EPS Growth (%) Book value (Bt) Dividend (Bt)
2013 36,085 8,593 35,906 18.81 13% 155.03 6.50
2014 34,616 8,687 36,332 19.03 1% 169.47 6.50
2015 35,680 14,654 34,181 17.91 ‐6% 189.56 6.50
2016E 37,290 13,164 34,295 17.97 0% 188.13 6.50
2017E 41,983 12,828 38,346 20.09 12% 202.20 6.83
FY Ended 31 Dec PER (X) PBV (X) Div. Yield (%) ROE (%)
2013 7.74 0.94 4.47 13%
2014 7.64 0.86 4.47 12%
2015 8.13 0.77 4.47 10%
2016E 8.10 0.77 4.47 10%
2017E 7.24 0.72 4.69 10%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
Figure 1: 4Q15 and 2015 earnings results Statement of comprehensive income (Btmn) Fiscal Year-Ended Dec.
4Q14
3Q15
4Q15
% YoY % QoQ
2014
2015
% YoY
Net Interest Income
14,860
14,441
15,617
5%
8%
58,997
57,510
-3%
Non Interest Income
8,973
12,299
10,778
20%
-12%
35,395
45,218
28%
Operating Income
23,833
26,739
26,396
11%
-1%
94,392
102,728
9%
Operating Expenses
12,057
10,948
12,132
1%
11%
43,087
45,045
5%
9,590
7,681
11,701
22%
52%
43,209
44,310
3%
939
4,872
3,880
313%
-20%
8,687
14,654
69%
2,028
1,810
2,642
30%
46%
8,593
8,630
0%
NM
NM
-12%
-15%
36,332
34,181
Operating Profit-pre tax Provision Expenses (Reversal) Tax expenses (Reversal) Minority Interest
(45)
(51)
(60)
Net Profit
8,763
9,057
7,681
PPOP-post tax
(159)
(220)
NM -6%
7,562
5,871
9,058
20%
54%
34,616
35,680
3%
EPS (Bt)
4.59
4.74
4.02
-12%
-15%
19.03
17.91
-6%
Key Statistics & Ratios
4Q14
3Q15
4Q15
Gross NPLs (Btmn)
45,046
Gross NPLs/Loans
58,112
2014
56,226
45,046
2015 56,226
2.10%
2.80%
2.80%
2.10%
2.80%
204.1%
172.6%
185.3%
204.1%
185.3%
Tier I to Risk Assets
15.1%
16.1%
15.8%
15.1%
15.8%
C apital Adequacy Ratio
17.4%
18.2%
17.9%
17.4%
17.9%
Loan to Deposit Ratio
86.6%
87.5%
89.4%
86.6%
89.4%
Loan to Deposit & Borrowing
81.0%
81.4%
83.8%
81.0%
83.8%
Provision to loans
0.21%
1.08%
0.83%
0.49%
0.78%
C ost to Income
50.6%
40.9%
46.0%
45.6%
43.8%
Non Interest Inc./Total Income
37.7%
46.0%
40.8%
37.5%
44.0%
Net Interest Margin (NIM)
2.33%
2.13%
2.34%
2.32%
2.17%
Tax rate (Reversal)
18.7%
16.6%
25.4%
20.2%
20.1%
Loan Growth YoY
1.7%
3.9%
4.9%
1.7%
4.9%
Loan Growth QoQ
2.3%
1.1%
3.3%
2.3%
Loan Loss Reserve/NPLs
Source: KTZMICO Research
Figure 2: BBL's P/BV band and sensitivity of market prices based on P/BV at different standard deviation levels (X)
2016E
1.8 +2 S.D.
1.6 1.4
PBV (x) Implied market
Upside/ Downside
price (Bt)
to current price (%)
+1.5 S.D.
+2.0SD
1.60
301
107
+1 S.D.
+1.5SD
1.50
282
94
+1.0SD
1.40
264
82
+0.5 S.D. Avg.
1.11
210
44
-1.0SD
1.02
191
32
-1.5SD
0.92
173
19
-2.0SD
0.82
155
7
-2.5SD
0.73
137
-6
0.6
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Jan-16
-0.5SD
-2.5S.D.
Jan-15
-2 S.D.
0.8
Jan-14
57
Jan-13
228
Jan-12
1.21
Jan-11
1.0
Average
Jan-10
69
-1 S.D. -1.5 S.D.
Jan-09
246
Jan-08
1.31
Jan-07
+0.5SD
Jan-06
-0.5 S.D.
Jan-05
1.2
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
Figure 3: BBL's PER band and sensitivity of market prices based on PER at different standard deviation levels (X)
2016E
14.0
PER (x) Implied market
+2 S.D.
13.0
+1.5 S.D.
12.0 11.0
Upside/ Downside
price (Bt)
to current price (%)
+1 S.D.
+2.0SD
13.2
237
63
+0.5 S.D.
+1.5SD
12.5
225
55 46
Avg.
10.0
-0.5 S.D.
+1.0SD
11.8
213
9.0
-1 S.D. -1.5 S.D.
+0.5SD
11.2
201
38
Average
10.5
189
30
-2 S.D.
8.0
-3
-2.5SD
7.1
128
-12
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Jan-16
140
Jan-15
7.8
Jan-14
5
-2.0SD
Jan-13
153
Jan-12
8.5
Jan-11
-1.5SD Jan-10
13
5.0
Jan-09
21
165
Jan-08
177
9.2
Jan-07
9.8
-1.0SD Jan-06
-0.5SD
6.0
Jan-05
7.0
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
Note: KT ZMICO is a partnership between KTB and ZMICO. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, SUTHA, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, PLE, TPOLY, TFG. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of SCI, SR, J, TKN.
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
th
th
th
th
KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
Earnings Review
Close Bt145.50
Banking January 21, 2016
Beat forecast/Below forecast/In line
4Q15 earnings beat forecast on stronger Non‐NII and NIM Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
18.732
20.823
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐4.1%
‐3.5%
Reuters / Bloomberg
BBL.BK/BBL TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
1,908.84
Par (Bt)
10.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
278.00/7,654.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
25.00/30.72
52 week High / Low (Bt)
197.00/142.50
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
4,374.00
NVDR (%)
32.67
Estimated free float (%)
97.47
Beta
0.69
URL
www.bangkokbank.com
CGR
Level 4 (Certified)
Anti‐corruption
Prapharas Nonthapiboon Analyst, no 17836 [email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5872
Cheap valuations and healthy balance sheet are main appeals We maintain an Outperform rating for BBL as we see its cheap valuations (with its P/BV near the ‐2.5SD level, close to the low level during the crisis in 2009) and its healthiest balance sheet compared to peers, especially with respect to its reserve cushion, remaining BBL’s main price catalysts. We also view that BBL will be in a better position to withstand the macro headwinds. 4Q15 net profit above our forecast but quite in line with the street BBL’s 4Q15 net profit (NP) of Bt7.7bn (‐12% YoY, ‐15% QoQ) was ahead of our forecast of Bt6.2bn, but quite in line with the street estimate of Bt7.4bn. The higher‐than‐expected results were due largely to higher‐ than‐expected net fee income and NIM as well as higher‐than‐expected gain on investment, with the bank booking large gain of Bt1.1bn in 4Q15. 4Q15 net profit stood at Bt7.7bn (‐12% YoY, ‐15% QoQ) The main reasons for the NP drop YoY were a much higher provision. Meanwhile, the lower extra gain QoQ (~Bt3bn in 3Q15 vs. ~Bt1.4bn in 4Q15) and higher operating expenses in every 4Q on seasonality were the main reasons for the NP drop QoQ. 2015 net profit stood at Bt34.2bn (‐6% YoY) The decline in NP was due largely to lower NIM on the rate cut impact and the higher provision. Meanwhile, core profit still grew by 3% YoY backed by modest loan growth of 5% YoY and 3% QoQ and the robust growth in non‐interest income by 28%, backed mainly by sound net fee income growth of 11%. Moreover, the main earnings cushion for BBL in 2015 came from its ability to generate huge gain on investments (Bt5.8bn in 2015 vs. Bt4.1bn in 2014) as well as gain on disposal of assets (Bt3.0bn in 2015 vs. Bt2.0bn in 2014). Given such extra gains, the bank set aside a much higher provision at Bt14.7bn (78 bps) vs. Bt8.7bn (49 bps) in 2014. Asset quality improved QoQ, mainly on write‐offs The bank’s NPLs for 4Q15 declined by Bt1.9bn or 3% QoQ, mainly due to the normal pattern wherein the bank usually does higher loan write‐offs at yearend. Meanwhile, its NPL ratio for 4Q15 was stable QoQ at 2.8% but it still increased from 2.1% in 2014. Its reserve‐to‐NPL ratio in 4Q15 was higher QoQ to 185% from 173% but still lower vs. 204% in 4Q14. Meanwhile, its reserve to the BoT’s minimum required reserve was lower at 213% vs. 217% in 3Q15 and 277% in 4Q14 but it remained the healthiest vs. peers. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec PPOP (Btmn) Provision (Btmn) Net Profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) EPS Growth (%) Book value (Bt) Dividend (Bt)
2013 36,085 8,593 35,906 18.81 13% 155.03 6.50
2014 34,616 8,687 36,332 19.03 1% 169.47 6.50
2015 35,680 14,654 34,181 17.91 ‐6% 189.56 6.50
2016E 37,290 13,164 34,295 17.97 0% 188.13 6.50
2017E 41,983 12,828 38,346 20.09 12% 202.20 6.83
FY Ended 31 Dec PER (X) PBV (X) Div. Yield (%) ROE (%)
2013 7.74 0.94 4.47 13%
2014 7.64 0.86 4.47 12%
2015 8.13 0.77 4.47 10%
2016E 8.10 0.77 4.47 10%
2017E 7.24 0.72 4.69 10%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
Figure 1: 4Q15 and 2015 earnings results Statement of comprehensive income (Btmn) Fiscal Year-Ended Dec.
4Q14
3Q15
4Q15
% YoY % QoQ
2014
2015
% YoY
Net Interest Income
14,860
14,441
15,617
5%
8%
58,997
57,510
-3%
Non Interest Income
8,973
12,299
10,778
20%
-12%
35,395
45,218
28%
Operating Income
23,833
26,739
26,396
11%
-1%
94,392
102,728
9%
Operating Expenses
12,057
10,948
12,132
1%
11%
43,087
45,045
5%
9,590
7,681
11,701
22%
52%
43,209
44,310
3%
939
4,872
3,880
313%
-20%
8,687
14,654
69%
2,028
1,810
2,642
30%
46%
8,593
8,630
0%
NM
NM
-12%
-15%
36,332
34,181
Operating Profit-pre tax Provision Expenses (Reversal) Tax expenses (Reversal) Minority Interest
(45)
(51)
(60)
Net Profit
8,763
9,057
7,681
PPOP-post tax
(159)
(220)
NM -6%
7,562
5,871
9,058
20%
54%
34,616
35,680
3%
EPS (Bt)
4.59
4.74
4.02
-12%
-15%
19.03
17.91
-6%
Key Statistics & Ratios
4Q14
3Q15
4Q15
Gross NPLs (Btmn)
45,046
Gross NPLs/Loans
58,112
2014
56,226
45,046
2015 56,226
2.10%
2.80%
2.80%
2.10%
2.80%
204.1%
172.6%
185.3%
204.1%
185.3%
Tier I to Risk Assets
15.1%
16.1%
15.8%
15.1%
15.8%
C apital Adequacy Ratio
17.4%
18.2%
17.9%
17.4%
17.9%
Loan to Deposit Ratio
86.6%
87.5%
89.4%
86.6%
89.4%
Loan to Deposit & Borrowing
81.0%
81.4%
83.8%
81.0%
83.8%
Provision to loans
0.21%
1.08%
0.83%
0.49%
0.78%
C ost to Income
50.6%
40.9%
46.0%
45.6%
43.8%
Non Interest Inc./Total Income
37.7%
46.0%
40.8%
37.5%
44.0%
Net Interest Margin (NIM)
2.33%
2.13%
2.34%
2.32%
2.17%
Tax rate (Reversal)
18.7%
16.6%
25.4%
20.2%
20.1%
Loan Growth YoY
1.7%
3.9%
4.9%
1.7%
4.9%
Loan Growth QoQ
2.3%
1.1%
3.3%
2.3%
Loan Loss Reserve/NPLs
Source: KTZMICO Research
Figure 2: BBL's P/BV band and sensitivity of market prices based on P/BV at different standard deviation levels (X)
2016E
1.8 +2 S.D.
1.6 1.4
PBV (x) Implied market
Upside/ Downside
price (Bt)
to current price (%)
+1.5 S.D.
+2.0SD
1.60
301
107
+1 S.D.
+1.5SD
1.50
282
94
+1.0SD
1.40
264
82
+0.5 S.D. Avg.
1.11
210
44
-1.0SD
1.02
191
32
-1.5SD
0.92
173
19
-2.0SD
0.82
155
7
-2.5SD
0.73
137
-6
0.6
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Jan-16
-0.5SD
-2.5S.D.
Jan-15
-2 S.D.
0.8
Jan-14
57
Jan-13
228
Jan-12
1.21
Jan-11
1.0
Average
Jan-10
69
-1 S.D. -1.5 S.D.
Jan-09
246
Jan-08
1.31
Jan-07
+0.5SD
Jan-06
-0.5 S.D.
Jan-05
1.2
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
Figure 3: BBL's PER band and sensitivity of market prices based on PER at different standard deviation levels (X)
2016E
14.0
PER (x) Implied market
+2 S.D.
13.0
+1.5 S.D.
12.0 11.0
Upside/ Downside
price (Bt)
to current price (%)
+1 S.D.
+2.0SD
13.2
237
63
+0.5 S.D.
+1.5SD
12.5
225
55 46
Avg.
10.0
-0.5 S.D.
+1.0SD
11.8
213
9.0
-1 S.D. -1.5 S.D.
+0.5SD
11.2
201
38
Average
10.5
189
30
-2 S.D.
8.0
-3
-2.5SD
7.1
128
-12
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Jan-16
140
Jan-15
7.8
Jan-14
5
-2.0SD
Jan-13
153
Jan-12
8.5
Jan-11
-1.5SD Jan-10
13
5.0
Jan-09
21
165
Jan-08
177
9.2
Jan-07
9.8
-1.0SD Jan-06
-0.5SD
6.0
Jan-05
7.0
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
Note: KT ZMICO is a partnership between KTB and ZMICO. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, SUTHA, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, PLE, TPOLY, TFG. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of SCI, SR, J, TKN.
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
