Total Access Communication Sell (TP Bt28.50)
Earnings Review
Close Bt41.50
ICT
Beat forecast/Below forecast/In line
January 31, 2017
4Q16 results missed expectation Results date: January 30, 2017 Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY17
FY18
Consensus EPS (Bt)
1.107
1.565
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
41.8%
4.8%
Reuters / Bloomberg
DTAC.BK/DTAC TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
2,367.81
Par (Bt)
2.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
98.00/2,786.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/44.81
52 week High / Low (Bt)
48.25/28.00
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
19,551.00 5.26
Estimated free float (%)
29.36
Beta
1.77
URL
www.dtac.co.th
CGR
Level 4 (Certified)
Anti‐corruption
Waraporn Wiboonkanarak Analyst, no. 2482
[email protected] 66 (0) 2624‐6273
Weak results; SELL maintained DTAC delivered disappointing 4Q16 results due to a wider loss on the handset margin. Its impairment on assets under the concession will result in no dividend payment for 2H16. Although its current share price trading at 2017E EV/EBITDA of 4x looks undemanding, its near‐term outlook remains challenging amidst the intensified competition. Thus, we keep our SELL rating unchanged. 4Q16 NP below our estimate DTAC reported a net profit of only Bt30mn (EPS: Bt0.01) in 4Q16, decreasing 97%YoY and 95%QoQ. This was far below our estimate and the market’s at Bt525mn and Bt441mn, respectively. The weaker‐than‐ expected earnings were mainly because of a higher loss on handset sales. DTAC registered a Bt835mn loss on handset sales, compared with a Bt54mn loss in 4Q15 and a Bt629mn loss last quarter. This was blamed on the higher handset subsidy supporting the prepaid‐to‐postpaid upgrade and lower sales volume of the new iPhone. Earnings pressured by handset loss DTAC’s core earnings dropped 97%YoY and QoQ to Bt2.4bn due to cost acceleration. In addition to a wider loss on handset sales, its cost of services continued to head north driven by higher D&A and network operating expenses in line with network expansion. SG&A expenses to sales were maintained at 20% to support selling activities and strengthen the brand perception alongside restructuring costs. Nevertheless, all these efforts failed to boost its top line. Its service revenue decreased 4%YoY and 1%QoQ in 4Q16 as the increase in data revenue was insufficient to offset the deterioration of voice revenue. Omitting 2H16 dividend payment The disappointing earnings in 4Q16 caused its full‐year NP to dive by 65%YoY to Bt2.1bn (EPS: 0.88). This was due to a slight drop in service revenue (‐4%YoY) in contrast with inflated costs. Its financial position remained strong with net debt to EBITDA of 1.1x, down from 1.4x last year. DTAC has set an impairment on assets under the concession totaling Bt5.2bn in the separate financial statement, causing negative retained earnings. This non‐cash item has made DTAC unable to pay dividends for 2H16. Unexciting 2017E guidance DTAC released its 2017E guidance with conservative targets, in our view. It expects to keep service revenue and EBITDA at the same level as last year and CAPEX in a range of Bt17‐20bn. We will fine‐tune our model after the analyst meeting, which will be held today. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) Norm EPS (Bt) Norm EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec Norm. PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2014 90,415 10,729 4.53 4.53 ‐1.1% 6.91 13.77 2014 21.30 8.30 7.01 7.2% 32.9% 85.4%
2015 87,753 5,893 2.49 2.61 ‐42.4% 2.41 11.50 2015 12.15 3.92 2.63 8.0% 20.7% 139.1%
2016 82,478 2,086 0.88 1.01 ‐61.3% 0.42 11.46 2016 47.11 4.63 3.62 1.0% 8.8% 113.7%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 5
2017E 83,091 3,727 1.57 1.59 56.6% 1.10 12.29 2017E 26.37 4.19 3.38 2.7% 13.3% 98.4%
2018E 84,409 3,873 1.64 1.53 ‐3.8% 1.14 13.35 2018E 25.37 4.44 3.11 2.8% 11.9% 132.7%
Figure 1: Earnings review Profit and Loss Statement (Btmn) Fiscal Year‐Ended Dec. 3Q15 Service Revenue 17,598 Sales 1,901 Revenue 19,695 Gross Profit 6,345 EBITDA 7,090 Interest Expense 379 Other income 169 Net profit (loss) 1,228 Core profit (loss) 1,583 Reported EPS (THB) 0.52 Gross margin (%) 32.2% EBITDA margin (%) 36.0% Net margin (%) 6.2% Current ratio (x) 0.66 Interest coverage (x) 6.16 Debt to equity (x) 3.28 BVPS (Bt) 11.80 ROE (%) 26.0%
2Q16 17,195 2,331 19,799 5,326 6,606 403 50 141 539 0.06 26.9% 33.4% 0.7% 0.74 1.42 3.14 11.57 17.5%
3Q16 17,320 1,949 19,537 5,288 7,226 383 57 659 652 0.28 27.1% 37.0% 3.4% 0.84 3.21 3.23 11.43 13.2%
4Q16 17,116 4,064 21,465 4,645 6,529 376 71 30 23 0.01 21.6% 30.4% 0.1% 0.83 0.93 3.26 11.44 11.2%
%QoQ ‐1.2% 108.5% 9.9% ‐12.2% ‐9.6% ‐1.9% 24.6% ‐95.4% ‐96.5% ‐95.4% ‐5.4% ‐6.6% ‐3.2%
0.1%
%YoY ‐4.0% ‐23.0% ‐7.7% ‐25.8% ‐2.2% 1.2% ‐7.9% ‐97.0% ‐97.6% ‐97.0% ‐5.3% 1.7% ‐4.2%
2015 71,858 15,411 87,753 25,231 27,941 1,384 297 5,893 6,188 2.49 28.8% 31.8% 6.7% 0.53 6.59 3.08 0.1% 11.50 20.7%
2016 69,252 12,181 82,478 21,632 27,980 1,567 229 2,086 2,396 0.88 26.2% 33.9% 2.5% 0.83 2.59 3.25 11.46 8.8%
Source: DTAC and KT Zmico Research REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 5
%YoY ‐3.6% ‐21.0% ‐6.0% ‐14.3% 0.1% 13.2% ‐23.0% ‐64.6% ‐61.3% ‐64.6% ‐2.5% 2.1% ‐4.2%
‐0.3%
Figure 2: Operating performance
Source: Bloomberg and KT Zmico Research REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 5
Figure 3: PER and EV/EBITDA band
Source: Bloomberg and KT Zmico Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 5
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, M‐CHAI, CRANE. KT ZMICO is a co underwriter of RPH.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Pass (scores: 50 – 59) No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's returns over a six‐month period due to specific coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 5 of 5
KT ZMICO Securities Company Limited Head Office
WWW.KTZMICO.COM
8th, 15th‐17th,19th, 21st Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok, Thailand 10500 Telephone: (66‐2) 695‐5000 Fax: (66‐2) 695‐5173 KT ZMICO Connect 662 695 5555
Central World Branch
Amarin Branch
22nd Floor, Amarin Building, 496‐502 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 018‐6200 Fax: (66‐2) 018‐6298, (66‐2) 018‐6299
8th Floor, Ton Son Tower, 900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 626‐6000 Fax: (66‐2) 626‐6111
Phaholyothin Branch
Sindhorn Branch
Viphavadee Branch
2nd Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130‐132 Wireless Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 627‐3550 Fax: (66‐2) 627‐3582, 627‐3600
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg., 333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee‐Rangsit Road, Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900 Telephone: (66‐2) 013‐8600 Fax: (66‐2) 618‐8569
BangKhae Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Pak Chong Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World, 16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 264‐5888 Fax: (66‐2) 264 5899
1291/1, Shinnawatra Tower II, 3rd Floor, Phaholyothin Road, Phayathai, Bangkok 10400 Telephone: (66‐2) 686‐1500 Fax: (66‐2) 686‐1666
Ploenchit Branch
518 The Mall Group Building Bangkhae Branch, 6th Floor, Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Telephone: (66‐2) 454‐9979 Fax: (66‐2) 454‐9970
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang, Chiang Mai 50100 Telephone: (053) 270‐072 Fax: (053) 272‐618
173 175, Mittapap Road, Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Telephone: (044) 279‐511 Fax: (044) 279‐574
Korat Branch
Khon Kaen Branch
Chonburi Branch
624/9 Changphuek Road, T.Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel, 260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang, A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000 Telephone: (043) 389‐171‐193 Fax: (043) 389‐209
4th Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg., 870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy, A. Muang, Cholburi 20000 Telephone: (038) 287‐635 Fax: (038) 287‐637
Pattaya Branch
Chachoengsao Branch
Hat Yai Branch
Easy Point 2, 392/65 Moo.9, T.Nong Prue, A. Bang Lamung, Chonburi 20260 Telephone: (038) 420‐965 Fax: (038) 420‐968
108/34‐36 Mahajakkrapad Road, T.Namuang, A.Muang, Chachoengsao 24000 Telephone: (038) 813‐088 Fax: (038) 813‐099
200/301, 200/303 JULDIS HATYAI PLAZA Floor 3 , Niphat‐Uthit 3 Rd, Hatyai Songkhla 90110 Telephone: (074) 355530‐3 Fax: (074) 355534
Phuket Branch
22/61‐63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road, Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket, Phuket 83000 Telephone: (076) 222‐811, (076) 222‐683 Fax: (076) 222‐861
Phitsanulok Branch
227/171 Borom Trilokkanat Road, Muang, Phitsanulok 65000 Telephone: 055‐219‐255 to 8 Fax: 055‐219‐259
Nakhon Pathom
Cyber Branch Ayutthaya
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
Cyber Branch Chiangrai
KrungThai Bank, Rojana Branch 253 Moo 5, Rojana Road, Phai Ling, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, Phra Nakhonsi Ayutthaya, 13000 Telephone: 035‐242‐477 Fax: 035‐242‐476
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd., Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District , Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083‐490‐2871
River Hotel (Building 3rd),1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
KrungThai Bank, Hayaek Phokhun Mengrai Branch 116/19 Moo 19, Highway 110 Road, Rop Wiang, Mueang Chiang Rai, Chiang Rai, 57000 Telephone: 053‐715‐067 Fax: 053‐715‐068