A model for capacity analysis of multiple lock complexes
A model for capacity analysis of multiple lock complexes: a case study of the Albert Canal (Flanders, Belgium) Pierre BAYART, Roeland ADAMS, Stefan SABLON, Marc SAS Questions? : [email protected]
Lock Capacity model • • • • • •
Why How By who Basic principles Input Results – Albertkanaal – Other Results
Lock Capacity model : Why • • • •
Locks = Major investments Adaptation to locks = long process Existing canal : social/environmental constraints New canal: major parameter for the whole project cycle cost
Lock Capacity model : How • Basic data when modelling lock capacity: inaccuracy of the data • Human factor in the evaluation of the quality Vervoerde tonnage (ton) • As a result : keep it simple! 45,000,000 40,000,000 35,000,000 30,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 0
Lock Capacity model : By who • Advantages and disadvantages of: – Self-programming – Subcontract programming
IMDC-Lock: Basic principles • Integrated Model for Design and Capacity analysis of locks • Keep it simple: – Reproduce de behavior of a lock operator – Event-driven program: • Try to book a lock cycle when a ship is registrating • If not possible, try again when status of the complex has changed in such way that you would find a solution • According to regulation principles: FIFO
– Statistical analysis will flatten the human factor not modeled
IMDC-Lock: Basic principles Data input Traffic data: • time series of arrival times • vessel dimensions • cargo / priority definition
Traffic generator: • vessel classification • total no. of vessel • statistically derived interarrival time distribution Lock data: • static info • no. lock chambers • dimensions • dynamic info • time series out of service • max. allowable waiting time outside/inside lock
Lock model Lock dispatch plan for each chamber • locking times • participating vessels
Lock and traffic management policy: • FCFS • service priority
Output History data: • lock status • ship transit Statistical data: • waiting times • lock capacity • lock utilisation degree
IMDC-Lock: Input • Trafic • Locks • Regulation policy
IMDC-Lock: Input • Traffic – Time series of registrating ships • Existing time series (registration file for calibration year) • Generated time series – Fully automatic – Parametrised generation
IMDC-Lock: Input • Traffic – Generation of ships arrival TS • • • •
Amount of ships Variability in the time Inter arrival distribution Traffic structure
IMDC-Lock: Input • Traffic – Generation of ships arrival TS • • • •
Amount of ships Variability in the time Inter arrival distribution Traffic structure
IMDC-Lock: Input • Traffic – Generation of ships arrival TS • • • •
Amount of ships Variability in the time Inter arrival distribution Traffic structure
IMDC-Lock: Input • Traffic – Generation of ships arrival TS • • • •
Amount of ships Variability in the time Inter arrival distribution Traffic structure – Triplets – Characteristic dimensions
IMDC-Lock: Input • Traffic – Generation of ships arrival TS: sensitivity to IATdistribution and stochastic generation – Average WT’s in current situation IAT Distribution type
Run 1
Run 2
Run 3
Run 4
Run 5
Gem
STDDEV
1 IAT for each time window
5.2
5.7
5.8
5.4
5.5
5.5
0.2
1 IAT average IAT-distribution
4.7
4.3
4.8
4.7
4.4
4.6
0.2
ExpNeg Distribution
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.9
3.8
0.1
IMDC-Lock: Input • Traffic • Locks: – dimensions – operating times
IMDC-Lock: Input • Trafic • Locks • Regulation policy – Fifo – Max waiting time inside and outside the lock – Possibility to assign priority in function of size or cargo Sluis
WT max 0 min
WT max 5 min
Wijnegem
164.8
20.1
WT WT WT WT WT WT WT max max max max max max max 10 min 15 min 18 min 20 min 25 min 30 min 60 min 16.7
16.7
16.8
16.9
19.0
19.8
48.4
IMDC-Lock: results • Albertcanal
IMDC-Lock: results • Albertcanal: current situation 18 Gemiddelde wachttijd [min] 16
%schepen met wachttijd > cyclustijd
14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Wijnegem
Olen
Kwaadmechelen
Hasselt
Diepenbeek
Genk
IMDC-Lock: results • Albertcanal: 2040 Sluisverzadiging voor trafieksituatie 2040 70
schepen met wachttijd > schutcyclus [%]
basisgroei 60
sterke groei
50 40 30 20 10 0 Wijnegem
Olen
Kwaadmechelen
Hasselt
Diepenbeek
Genk
IMDC-Lock: results • Albertcanal: 2040 Wijnegem Lock, scenarios 180
gemiddelde wachttijd [min]
160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
Evaluatie scenario's sluizencomplex Wijnegem (2040) gemiddelde wachttijd basisgroei sterke groei
IMDC-Lock: results • Albert canal: detailed results – waiting times distribution
IMDC-Lock: results • Albert canal: detailed results – lock occupation
IMDC-Lock: results • Albert canal: detailed results – waiting queues
IMDC-Lock: results • Other canals 250 present lock (limited economic growth) new large lock (limited economic growth)
waiting time [minutes]
200
present + new lock (limited economic growth) present lock (large economic growth) new large lock (large economic growth)
150
present + new lock (large economic growth) lock cycle duration
100
50
0 10000
15000
20000
25000
number of ships
30000
35000
IMDC-Lock: results • Possible developments: lots of interfaces with other design aspects! – Hydraulic design/EM-parts design – Water balance/environmental impact – Life cycle cost estimate: multiple-single lock + when/energy costs and production – Macro-economic studies/modal shift –…
IMDC-Lock: Questions? • [email protected] • www.imdc.be
Lock Capacity model • • • • • •
Why How By who Basic principles Input Results – Albertkanaal – Other Results
Lock Capacity model : Why • • • •
Locks = Major investments Adaptation to locks = long process Existing canal : social/environmental constraints New canal: major parameter for the whole project cycle cost
Lock Capacity model : How • Basic data when modelling lock capacity: inaccuracy of the data • Human factor in the evaluation of the quality Vervoerde tonnage (ton) • As a result : keep it simple! 45,000,000 40,000,000 35,000,000 30,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 0
Lock Capacity model : By who • Advantages and disadvantages of: – Self-programming – Subcontract programming
IMDC-Lock: Basic principles • Integrated Model for Design and Capacity analysis of locks • Keep it simple: – Reproduce de behavior of a lock operator – Event-driven program: • Try to book a lock cycle when a ship is registrating • If not possible, try again when status of the complex has changed in such way that you would find a solution • According to regulation principles: FIFO
– Statistical analysis will flatten the human factor not modeled
IMDC-Lock: Basic principles Data input Traffic data: • time series of arrival times • vessel dimensions • cargo / priority definition
Traffic generator: • vessel classification • total no. of vessel • statistically derived interarrival time distribution Lock data: • static info • no. lock chambers • dimensions • dynamic info • time series out of service • max. allowable waiting time outside/inside lock
Lock model Lock dispatch plan for each chamber • locking times • participating vessels
Lock and traffic management policy: • FCFS • service priority
Output History data: • lock status • ship transit Statistical data: • waiting times • lock capacity • lock utilisation degree
IMDC-Lock: Input • Trafic • Locks • Regulation policy
IMDC-Lock: Input • Traffic – Time series of registrating ships • Existing time series (registration file for calibration year) • Generated time series – Fully automatic – Parametrised generation
IMDC-Lock: Input • Traffic – Generation of ships arrival TS • • • •
Amount of ships Variability in the time Inter arrival distribution Traffic structure
IMDC-Lock: Input • Traffic – Generation of ships arrival TS • • • •
Amount of ships Variability in the time Inter arrival distribution Traffic structure
IMDC-Lock: Input • Traffic – Generation of ships arrival TS • • • •
Amount of ships Variability in the time Inter arrival distribution Traffic structure
IMDC-Lock: Input • Traffic – Generation of ships arrival TS • • • •
Amount of ships Variability in the time Inter arrival distribution Traffic structure – Triplets – Characteristic dimensions
IMDC-Lock: Input • Traffic – Generation of ships arrival TS: sensitivity to IATdistribution and stochastic generation – Average WT’s in current situation IAT Distribution type
Run 1
Run 2
Run 3
Run 4
Run 5
Gem
STDDEV
1 IAT for each time window
5.2
5.7
5.8
5.4
5.5
5.5
0.2
1 IAT average IAT-distribution
4.7
4.3
4.8
4.7
4.4
4.6
0.2
ExpNeg Distribution
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.9
3.8
0.1
IMDC-Lock: Input • Traffic • Locks: – dimensions – operating times
IMDC-Lock: Input • Trafic • Locks • Regulation policy – Fifo – Max waiting time inside and outside the lock – Possibility to assign priority in function of size or cargo Sluis
WT max 0 min
WT max 5 min
Wijnegem
164.8
20.1
WT WT WT WT WT WT WT max max max max max max max 10 min 15 min 18 min 20 min 25 min 30 min 60 min 16.7
16.7
16.8
16.9
19.0
19.8
48.4
IMDC-Lock: results • Albertcanal
IMDC-Lock: results • Albertcanal: current situation 18 Gemiddelde wachttijd [min] 16
%schepen met wachttijd > cyclustijd
14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Wijnegem
Olen
Kwaadmechelen
Hasselt
Diepenbeek
Genk
IMDC-Lock: results • Albertcanal: 2040 Sluisverzadiging voor trafieksituatie 2040 70
schepen met wachttijd > schutcyclus [%]
basisgroei 60
sterke groei
50 40 30 20 10 0 Wijnegem
Olen
Kwaadmechelen
Hasselt
Diepenbeek
Genk
IMDC-Lock: results • Albertcanal: 2040 Wijnegem Lock, scenarios 180
gemiddelde wachttijd [min]
160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
Evaluatie scenario's sluizencomplex Wijnegem (2040) gemiddelde wachttijd basisgroei sterke groei
IMDC-Lock: results • Albert canal: detailed results – waiting times distribution
IMDC-Lock: results • Albert canal: detailed results – lock occupation
IMDC-Lock: results • Albert canal: detailed results – waiting queues
IMDC-Lock: results • Other canals 250 present lock (limited economic growth) new large lock (limited economic growth)
waiting time [minutes]
200
present + new lock (limited economic growth) present lock (large economic growth) new large lock (large economic growth)
150
present + new lock (large economic growth) lock cycle duration
100
50
0 10000
15000
20000
25000
number of ships
30000
35000
IMDC-Lock: results • Possible developments: lots of interfaces with other design aspects! – Hydraulic design/EM-parts design – Water balance/environmental impact – Life cycle cost estimate: multiple-single lock + when/energy costs and production – Macro-economic studies/modal shift –…
IMDC-Lock: Questions? • [email protected] • www.imdc.be
