A Trading Turn for Japanese Equities

Report 0 Downloads 75 Views
November 22,2010

Market Vane

Closing Values

Indicator Market Technicals

Direction Improving

Indicator Topix

Market Trading Volume

Improving Off 15-Year Highs

Yen Interest Rates

Backing Up

Best Sector 1 Mo.

Broker/Dealers

Week Close 869.52

Prev. Week 846.98

NK225

10,022.39

9,724.81

TSE 2

2,042.51

2,015.53

JASDAQ

48.19

47.58

JGB Yield (%)

1.070

0.995

Worst Sector 1 Mo.

Mining

Yen-Dollar

83.45

82.32

Economic Momentum

Slowing

EAFE ETF

57.77

57.44

Sources: Tokyo Stock Exchange, Nikkei Financial, Yahoo.com

A Trading Turn for Japanese Equities While the Fed is taking an incredible amount of flak regarding QE2 and the announcement of QE2 led to some profit taking in risk trades, the selloff of some 4.4% last week in the S&P 500 came as we suggested, i.e., that QE2 would trigger some “sell on the news” because so much expectation had already been built in by the time the Fed made the announcement. By the end of the week, however, the S&P 500 had bounced smartly off its 50-day moving average, keeping stocks in the uptrend that began from August when the Fed first began talking about QE2. We believe both the dangers and the benefits of QE2 are being severely overhyped as regards the economic impact. In the financial markets, it is just more evidence of the old Wall Street saw “don’t fight the Fed”. The counterbalance will be the “tail risks” as perceived by investors--i.e., commodity price inflation, EU sovereign debt funding and China tightening that will serve to keep stock prices from getting too bubbly. The surprise is that Euro equities have been outperforming almost as much as the emerging markets despite serious sovereign debt issues, while Japanese equities are just beginning to catch up. Rising inflationary expectations are a positive for Japanese equities, in that these expectations tend to widen the spread between US and Japan long bonds to which the JPY/USD rate is keyed, i.e., a widening spread means a weaker yen, and a weaker yen means positive bias for Japanese stocks. In post QE2 announcement trading, Japanese stocks have become somewhat of a “risk off” trade in that they are a contrarian trade to emerging markets. But as long as the Fed is pushing US monetary policy to the limit to meet its twin mandates, USD will continue to be weaker versus JPY than Japanese companies would like, while Japan’s GDP growth vis-à-vis its OECD peers will continue to significantly lag in 2011 and 2012, implying that Japanese equities will also continue bringing up the rear. Since the end of October, the Topix is up just over 7% as JPY/USD retreated to the 83.5 level, while a further retreat to the 85 level for JPY/USD could give the Topix another 10% boost, allowing Japanese equities to catch up to the 17% gain already seen in the S&P 500.

Subscribe or renew at www.japaninvestor.com

1

TJI MARKET LETTER 11.22.10

TJI Model Portfolios 1 Model Portfolios

Sources: Tokyo Stock Exchange, Yahoo Japan Finance Note: The Japan Deep Value Portfolio is a long-term, buy-and-hold portfolio with a 3-year time horizon

Subscribe or renew at www.japaninvestor.com

2

TJI MARKET LETTER 11.22.10

Yep, It Was Sell on the News With QE2 While the Fed is taking an incredible amount of flak regarding QE2 and the announcement of QE2 led to some profit taking in risk trades, the selloff of some 4.4% last week came as we suggested, i.e., that QE2 would trigger some “sell on the news” because so much expectation had already been built in by the time the Fed made the announcement. By the end of the week, however, the S&P 500 had bounced smartly off its 50-day moving average, keeping stocks in the uptrend that began from August when the Fed first began talking about QE2. News of further tightening in China to reign in inflation and another crisis-like flare-up in the ongoing Euro sovereign debt crisis were triggers for this selling. Concerns about China tightening and Euro sovereign debt were also what pushed the S&P 500 off its perch in April, along with concerns that the economic recovery was sputtering. Regardless of whether QE2 actually works to expand US employment (we are highly doubtful) it has addressed investor concerns about a double dip and further has instilled a degree of inflation expectations in bond yields, at least in terms of the "break-even" rate derived from Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS). S&P 500 Takes Sell on News in Stride

Consumer vs Bond Investor Expectations

Source: Dallas FRB

But critics of the Fed claim that QE2 will unleash a tsunami of inflation appear to us to be way, way over the top. Inflation is inevitable, but the US first has to first overcome the deflationary impact of debt deleveraging. The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland reports that its latest estimate of 10-year expected inflation is 1.50 percent. In other words, the public currently expects the inflation rate to be less than 2 percent on average over the next decade. The model for this index combines information from a number of sources to address the shortcomings of other, commonly used measures, such as the "break-even" rate derived from Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS) or survey-based estimates. This measure shows disinflation continuing. Further, we don’t buy Nassim Taleb’s (of Black Swans fame) allegory of QE2 being like a bottle of ketchup being shaken increasingly harder until the ketchup comes splooshing out all over the plate and everywhere—the implication being runaway inflation and a worthless USD. That’s not what happened in Japan with their QE. In fact, not much happened in Japan’s QE at all. Commercial bank reserve balances at the BOJ continued to pile up, but nothing cam trickling out in the form of loans through the “monetary transfer mechanism” (commercial banks creating money through loans) because the “money multiplier” was broke.

Subscribe or renew at www.japaninvestor.com

3

TJI MARKET LETTER 11.22.10

The best that the Fed can hope for with QE2 is that it pushes yields of long-term treasuries down to the interest paid on bank reserves. Unfortunately, the Fed is confusing the situation greatly by claiming QE2 will increase US jobs by some 700,000, something which is also see as a very pie-in-the-sky claim. Consequently, we see both the dangers and the benefits of QE2 being severely overhyped as regards the economic impact. In the financial markets, it is just more evidence of the old Wall Street saw “don’t fight the Fed”. The counterbalance will be the “tail risks” as perceived by investors--i.e., commodity price inflation, EU sovereign debt funding and China tightening that will serve to keep stock prices from getting too bubbly.

The Secular Trend Remains Abundant Liquidity, Fund Flows into Risk Trades The November BoA Merrill survey of global fund managers shows a high degree of bullishness regarding both the economy and inflation going into 2011. Basically QE2 has raised both global growth and inflation expectations. Some 41% of these managers are overweight stocks versus 27% in November, but still well below the last peak of 52% seen in April which US stock indices were at 2010 highs. By region, global emerging markets continue to be the favorite, with a net 56% being overweight versus 49% in October. Next came the net overweight in commodities, which rose to 21% from 17% in October. Despite all the concerns about sovereign debt, a net 15% were overweight Euroland versus a net 3% in October. On the other hand, investors are basically neutral on US equities, with a mere 1% being overweight US equities versus a net 4% the previous month. Finally, most remain bearish on Japan, although this bearishness waned somewhat in November, when 29% were underweight versus 35% in October. The contrarian trade, therefore, is to sell emerging markets and buy Japan. Despite the Warnings of More Dire Consequences from “Fudging” Euro Sovereign Debt Issues, Euro Equities Have Outperformed Almost as Much as Emerging Markets The BofA Merrill survey shows a rather high degree of bullishness in Euro equities in the November survey, and these fund managers apparently have been putting their money where their mouth is, as the FTSE Eurozone index is showing significant outperformance visà-vis the developed aggregate since September, despite the headlines of yet another Euro debt crisis in Ireland, ostensibly which could be followed by Portugal and others.

Subscribe or renew at www.japaninvestor.com

4

TJI MARKET LETTER 11.22.10

Euroland Outperforming

Further Break to the Upside?

Inflationary Expectations are Incrementally Positive for Japan The BoA Merrill survey of fund managers shows that the announcement of QE2 has significantly raised inflation expectations, as a net 48% now expect higher inflation versus a net 27% in October. Rising inflationary expectations in the US in particular are positive for Japanese equities in that, a) the back-up in US treasuries with higher inflationary expectations will work to expand the yield gap between US-Japan long-term bonds, which in turn will b) take pressure off JPY to break up to new historical highs against USD. As we saw last week, Japanese stock prices immediately perked up as JPY/USD backed away from 15-year highs to the mid-JPY83/USD level. Just JPY3 weakness versus USD resulted in a 12% pop in the Nikkei 225.

Winners/Losers from End October

Only Large Caps Participate

Source: Nikkei Astra

Source: Tokyo Stock Exchange

The above tables show that the rebound was led by broker/dealers, insurers, glass/ceramics, oil/coal and then transportation equipment, although the transportation equipment and electronics sectors ostensibly are the biggest beneficiaries from a weak yen. Further, the large-cap indices led while the small and mi-cap indices significantly declined. Subscribe or renew at www.japaninvestor.com

5

TJI MARKET LETTER 11.22.10

This reflects a number of factors, a) domestic structural selling has been concentrated in the larger-cap, more liquid names, as does foreign investor trading. b) small and mid-cap stocks

perform best in the early stages of an economic recovery, not in excess-liquidity driven markets. With Japan’s GDP widely expected to double dip in the final quarter of calendar

2010, small and mid-cap stocks are still feeling the negative effects of cost cutting by the larger, more international set makers in the electronics and automobile sectors, and this is reflected in the noticeable lag behind larger cap issues.

Given a continued rise in inflation expectations (as reflected in US treasury yields), JPY/USD has room for a retreat to the JPY90/USD level—at the most, with JPY85/USD being more realistic. As long as JPY/USD is retreating (and the yen is stable-to-weaker vis-à-vis EUR), Tokyo stocks have further upside, to the 11,000 level, or some 10% from here. However, while Japanese equities are poised for a short-term trade, we would caution against becoming wild-eyed bulls on Japanese equities, because the shift in fundamentals already seen and expected in the foreseeable future more accurately can be described as weaker headwinds, rather than strong tailwinds, for Japanese stocks.

Subscribe or renew at www.japaninvestor.com

6

TJI MARKET LETTER 11.22.10

Global Markets

Sources: FTSE, MSCI/Barra Global energy is now the leading sector, followed by basic materials and consumer discretionary. This pattern has persisted since the March 2009 lows, while the financials have continued to lag, reflecting the ongoing balance sheet consolidation global financials still have to contend with.

Subscribe or renew at www.japaninvestor.com

7

TJI MARKET LETTER 11.22.10

Intermarket Analysis

FTSE US vs All Developed

FTSE Japan vs All Developed

FTSE Eurozone vs All Developed

FTSE All Emerging vs Developed

Source: StockCharts.com

Source: StockCharts.com

Source: StockCharts.com

Source: StockCharts.com

JPY Index

USD Index

Source: StockCharts.com

Source: BigCharts.com

All agree that emerging markets are where the secular growth lies for the medium term. The surprise is the strong performance of Euro equity markets despite serious sovereign debt issues, and the severe underperformance of Japanese equities despite apparently good GDP numbers. The biggest impediment, JPY, is now accommodating a trading turn for Japanese equities.

Subscribe or renew at www.japaninvestor.com

8

TJI MARKET LETTER 11.22.10

Japan Market Charts Nikkei 225: Finally Breaks Above 200-Day MA

JASDAQ: Lagging But Still Bouyant

Most Buying Coming from Prop Traders

Subscribe or renew at www.japaninvestor.com

9

TJI MARKET LETTER 11.22.10

Topix Sector Performance

Classic high beta broker/dealers have led the rebound so far, while our least favorite, the banks, have also responded well even as they line up for additional capital issues. Interestingly, currency sensitive electronics and precision have significantly lagged.

Subscribe or renew at www.japaninvestor.com

10

TJI MARKET LETTER 11.22.10

NOTICE: While the information and opinions contained in this report have been compiled by The Japan Investor PTY, LTD. from sources believed to be reliable, we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Accordingly, nothing in this report shall be construed as; 1) offering a guarantee of the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, and 2) an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. Any opinions expressed herein reflect our judgment at the date of the report and are subject to change. The Japan Investor PTY, LTD. may at any time have a long or short position in any security or option mentioned in this report. In such cases, such positions will be disclosed in a note in the report. Each recipient of this report, by their acceptance hereof, warrants that they understand the risks involved in dealing in the securities or any related investments or instruments and shall not distribute this report to any other persons. This report is not intended for public distribution. This report may not be reproduced, distributed–in whole or in part–by any recipient without the prior written consent of The Japan Investor PTY, LTD. Photocopying of the Japan Investor is Illegal. Reproduction of any part of this publication by any means will be held as an international violation of copyright laws unless specifically authorized by the publisher. If you would like to reproduce any part of The Japan Investor, please write to [email protected], and include the source of your quote and an email address with your request, as well as where and when the excerpt will be reproduced.

Subscribe or renew at www.japaninvestor.com

11

TJI MARKET LETTER 11.22.10