ABU DHABI SECURITIES EXCHANGE QUARTERLY REPORT
ABU DHABI SECURITIES EXCHANGE QUARTERLY REPORT 1Q 2011
KMEFIC Research Department .م.ك.م.ﺷﺮآﺔ اﻟﻜﻮﻳﺖ واﻟﺸﺮق اﻷوﺳﻂ ﻟﻺﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ش Kuwait and Middle East Financial Investment Company K.S.C.C.
ABU DHABI SECURITIES EXCHANGE Quarterly Report l First Quarter 2011 The Quarter in brief... * Real Estate & Constrcution record big losses -- -* Geopolitical tensions -- -* Positive economic indicators ++
Volume (mil. Shrs)
Market Index & Trade Volume - 1Q- 2011 250
2,800
200
2,700
150
2,600
100
2,500
50 0
2,400
Jan-11
* Weak trading activity --
Volume
Market Overview
General Index
2,719.87
Current Quarter (1Q-2011)
Mar-11 10 per. Mov. Avg. (ADX)
2,607.12
General Index
Change (points)
(112.75)
Q-o-Q Change
-4.15%
End of 2010
▼
-4.1%
YTD Banks Change
-2.0%
Health Care
-2.3%
Telecommunication 2,719.87 -4.15%
-2.8%
▼
Consumer
Sectors Indices Banks Real Estate Energy Consumer Construction Insurance Telecommunication Industrial Health Care
Feb-11 ADX
ADX Indices returns in 1Q-2011
ADX Market Indices Previous Quarter (4Q-2010)
4,024.84 291.78 166.29 1,158.98 2,410.31 2,653.21 2,431.52 2 499 33 2,499.33 1,211.87
ADX
KMEFIC
Kuwait & Middle East Financial Investment Co.
3,942.97 215.41 160.03 1,119.74 2,025.81 2,530.31 2,363.94 2 392 26 2,392.26 1,184.06
(81.87) (76.37) (6.26) (39.24) (384.50) (122.90) (67.58) (107 07) (107.07) (27.81)
-2.03% -26.17% -3.76% -3.39% -15.95% -4.63% -2.78% 4 28% -4.28% -2.29%
▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼
-3.4%
4,024.84 -2.03% ▼ Energy 291.78 -26.17% ▼ Industrial 166.29 -3.76% ▼ Insurance 1,158.98 -3.39% ▼ 2,410.31 Construction -15.95% ▼ 2,653.21 Real -4.63% ▼ Estate -26.2% 2,431.52 -2.78% ▼ 2 499 33 -4.28% 4 28%-30% ▼ 2,499.33 S R h Source: KMEFIC Research 1,211.87 -2.29% ▼
-3.8% -4.3% -4.6% -16.0%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX) ended the first quarter of this year on a negative note. Along with other GCC stock markets, ADX was influenced by the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the MENA region. ADX’s main index ended 1Q-2011 down by 4.15%, as it closed at 2,607.12 points compared to 2,719.87 points registered by the end of the previous quarter. In addition to the main index, all of the market’s sectors concluded the first three months of the year with losses. The Real Estate sector was in the lead, as its index dropped by 26.17%, followed by the Construction sector at 15.95% loss, and the Insurance sector came in third with it index declining by 4.63%. Furthermore, ADX registered weak activity during the 1Q-2011. A total of 4.77 billion shares changed hands, 8.37% lower than the volume during the fourth quarter of 2010, whilst the turnover total declined by 19.07% reaching AED 7.47 billion. Nevertheless, there are a number of positive indicators with regard to Abu Dhabi’s economic situation. According to Department of Economic Development, the emirate’s real GDP is expected to advance by 7% this year to reach AED 554 billion compared to AED 517.8 billion in 2010. Non-oil sectors are expected to reach AED 268 billion in 2011, 10.6% higher than 2010’s figure. Furthermore, non-oil exports in Abu Dhabi grew by 22.2% last year, in comparison to 2009, to stand at AED 11.6 billion. Inflationary pressures, on the other hand, are considered low in Abu Dhabi when compared to other economies in the region.
1Q 2011 - Market Sectoral Data (Activity, Capitalization, Multiples) SECTORS
Volume (mil. Shrs)
Banks & Fin. Ser. Real Estate Telecommunication Consumer Construction Insurance Energy Industrial Health Care
445.97 2,343.45 98.25 44.49 227.47 166.50 1,432.76 3.51 7.45
Total Market YTD chng in M.Cap
4,769.84
Source: KMEFIC Research
% to market
Rank
3 1 6 7 4 5 2 9 8
Value (AED mil.)
9.35% 1,445.96 49.13% 3,200.96 2.06% 1,057.62 0.93% 265.07 4.77% 226.80 3.49% 255.62 30.04% 990.99 0.07% 14.25 0.16% 14.36 100.0% 7,471.62
Rank
2 1 3 5 7 6 4 9 8
% to market
19.35% 42.84% 14.16% 3.55% 3.04% 3.42% 13.26% 0.19% 0.19%
MCap (AED bil.)
% to Market
109.88 8.16 110.19 7.06 8.85 10.40 13.50 4.33 2.45
39.98% 2.97% 40.09% 2.57% 3.22% 3.78% 4.91% 1.58% 0.89%
274.84 100.0% -1.10%
Rank
2 6 1 7 5 4 3 8 9
N. of Co.
P/E
P/BV
ROE
16 3 3 9 10 15 2 4 2
9.96 4.33 12.72 8.88 14.10 15.24 17.89 7.71 14.91
1.27 0.57 1.27 1.11 0.83 1.73 0.75 0.98 1.29
13.35% 2.76% 12.31% 12.03% 5.30% 9.31% 6.56% 15.31% 9.28%
64
11.60
1.22
11.83%
Notes: (1)Market Valuation Multiples & ROE are weighted as per sectors capitalization. (3) Capitalization in Billion AED
Page 1 Kuwait & Middle East Financial Investment Company (K.S.C.C.) KMEFIC- P.O.Box 819 Safat 13009 Kuwait Tel.:(+965) 2225 5000 Fax:(+965) 2225 2563 www.kmefic.com.kw [email protected] (Kindly refer to the Disclaimer on the last page)
ABU DHABI SECURITIES EXCHANGE Quarterly Report l First Quarter 2011 KMEFIC
Kuwait & Middle East Financial Investment Co.
Technical Review
ADX vs. Two Support & Resistance Levels
ADX Index Volatility 30 Days 5.01%
General Index
60 Days 6.93%
90 Days 7.26%
52-weeks 10.44%
S1 2,510
R1 2,721
R2 2,834
ADX Index Support & Resistance S2 2,414
General Index
Market Activity Month/ Quarter
Volume (mil. Shrs)
3,100 3,000 2,900 2,800 2,700 2,600 2,500 2,400 2,300
Rank
(AED mil.)
1 3 6
3,973.82 2,932.08 2,326.19 9,232.09
1 2 5
January-11 February-11
1,535.77
4 5
2,484.99
4 6
1,252.78 1,981.29 4,769.84 -8.37%
2
2,146.91 2,839.72 7,471.62 -19.07%
3 Energy 30.0%
Market Breadth
Volume Allocation By Category
International Fish Farming Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank
9.95 2.49
24.38% 20.29%
20.05 120.27
Share Turnover 23.59% 2.50%
National Corp. for Tourism & Hotels Waha Capital Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank
7.50 0.82 3.22
13.29% 10.81% 8.78%
5.77 160.38 38.95
5.24% 9.26% 1.65%
Stock Fujairah Cement Industries AL DAR Properties Commercial Bank International Sharjah Cement & Industrial Dev. Sorouh Real Estate
Real Estate 49.1%
Banks & Fin. Ser. 9.3%
Top Gainers
Top Losers
Mar-11
Others 11.5%
Rank
2,360.33 1,645.53 1,199.44 5,205.30
Stock
Feb-11
Jan-11
Volume Allocation by Sector Value
October-10 November-10 November 10 December-10 Total 4Q-2010
March-11 Total 1Q-2011 Q-o-Q chng %
ADX 1rst Support 1rst Resistance 2nd Support 2nd Resistance
Close (AED)
Close (AED)
1.03 1.52 0.90 0.70 1.32
Change
Change -65.67% -33.33% -28.57% -20.45% -19.02%
Volume (mil. Shrs)
Volume (mil. Shrs)
Share Turnover
0.08 1,312.55 0.16 2.28 594.36
0.02% 50.92% 0.01% 0.41% 22.64%
Volume 1,392.48 1,312.55 594.36 436.54 164.43
% to market 29.19% 27.52% 12.46% 9.15% 3.45%
Value (AED mil.) 2 270 05 2,270.05 1,053.32 933.18 755.65 481.88
% to market 30 38% 30.38% 14.10% 12.49% 10.11% 6.45%
No-Change 0.85%
Gainers 8.60%
Losers 90.55%
Breadth & Market Share Category
Active Stocks Gainers Losers No-Change
Volume (mil.Shars)
Count
56 12 41 3
% to Market
4,769.84 100.0% 410 8.60%
4,319 40.528
90.55% 0.85%
Value AED
7,471.62 924 6,489 59.341
% to Market
100.0% 12.36% 86.85% 0.79%
Most Active by Volume Stock Dana Gas PJSC AL DAR Properties Sorouh Real Estate Ras Al Khaimah Properties Ras Al Khaimah Cement
Close (AED)
0.65 1.52 1.32 0.39 0.78
Change -10.96% -33.33% -19.02% -11.36% -7.14%
(mil. Shrs)
Most Active by Turnover Stock AL DAR Properties Etisalat Dana Gas PJSC Sorouh Real Estate First Gulf Bank
Close (AED)
1 1.52 52 10.50 0.65 1.32 16.00
Change -33.33% 33 33% -2.78% -10.96% -19.02% -12.33%
Main index’s volatility level increased during the 1Q-2011 as the 30 & 60 days volatility grew to 5.01% 5 01% and 6.93% 6 93% from 2.06% 2 06% & 3.80% respectively in 4Q-2010, whilst the 52-weeks volatility registered 10.44%, up from 9.70% in the previous quarter. Out of 64 listed issues in ADX, 56 stocks participated in trades during the first quarter of 2011. 12 stocks recorded gains, while 41 issues closed lower and 3 stocks closed with no change. Losing stocks stood for almost 91% of the overall market volume, whilst gaining stocks captured around 12% of the market’s total turnover turnover.
Page 2 Kuwait & Middle East Financial Investment Company (K.S.C.C.) KMEFIC- P.O.Box 819 Safat 13009 Kuwait Tel.:(+965) 2225 5000 Fax:(+965) 2225 2563 www.kmefic.com.kw [email protected]
ABU DHABI SECURITIES EXCHANGE Quarterly Report l First Quarter 2011 KMEFIC
Kuwait & Middle East Financial Investment Co. ADX Stocks - The Quarter Activity Sheet Name
Sector
30-Dec-2010
31-Mar-2011
Change
Volume (Shares)
Value (AED)
Shr Turnover Ratio
Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank
Banks & Fin. Ser.
2.07
2.49
20.29%
120,265,441
275,828,594
2.50%
Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank
Banks & Fin. Ser.
2.96
3.22
8.78%
38,951,671
119,542,252
1.65%
Bank Of Sharjah
Banks & Fin. Ser.
1.84
1.90
3.26%
15,868,120
28,338,114
0.76%
Commercial Bank International
Banks & Fin. Ser.
1.26
0.90
-28.57%
159,620
186,891
0.01%
First Gulf Bank
Banks & Fin. Ser.
18.25
16.00
-12.33%
28,529,772
481,877,629
1.90%
Finance House
Banks & Fin. Ser.
5.45
5.45
0.00%
250,000
1,500,000
0.08%
Invest Bank
Banks & Fin. Ser.
1.80
1.81
0.56%
1,792,235
2,896,661
0.16%
National Bank Of Abu Dhabi
Banks & Fin. Ser.
9.79
9.74
-0.51%
22,943,464
259,983,433
0.80%
National Bank of Fujairah
Banks & Fin. Ser.
5.00
4.14
-17.20%
70,600
205,422
0.01%
National Bank of Umm Al-Qaiwain
Banks & Fin. Ser.
2.24
2.00
-10.71%
411,529
872,294
0.03%
Oman & Emirates Invest. Holding
Banks & Fin. Ser.
1.00
0.90
-10.00%
224,988
202,984
0.18%
National Bank of Ras Al Khaima
Banks & Fin. Ser.
4.18
4.15
-0.72%
1,318,087
6,960,781
0.10%
Sharjah Islamic Bank
Banks & Fin Fin. Ser. Ser
0 93 0.93
0 87 0.87
-6 45% -6.45%
16 524 963 16,524,963
15 426 889 15,426,889
0 68% 0.68%
United Arab Bank
Banks & Fin. Ser.
5.43
5.65
4.05%
455,000
2,629,020
0.05%
Union National Bank
Banks & Fin. Ser.
2.85
2.92
2.46%
37,823,967
121,665,036
1.67%
Waha Capital
Banks & Fin. Ser.
0.74
0.82
10.81%
160,378,622
127,839,882
9.26%
AL DAR Properties
Real Estate
2.28
1.52
-33.33%
1,312,551,692
2,270,046,391
50.92%
Ras Al Khaimah Properties
Real Estate
0.44
0.39
-11.36%
436,540,456
175,255,600
21.83%
Sorouh Real Estate
Real Estate
1.63
1.32
-19.02%
594,359,094
755,653,165
22.64%
Etisalat
Telecommunication
10.80
10.50
-2.78%
96,926,819
1,053,315,607
1.23%
Qatar Telecom (Qtel)
Telecommunication
176.00
171.50
-2.56%
9,295
1,597,635
0.01%
Sudan Telecom.
Telecommunication
2.10
2.06
-1.90%
1,314,933
2,702,944
0.13%
Abu Dhabi National Hotels
Consumer
3.00
2.72
-9.33%
2,883,168
8,445,133
0.29%
AGTHIA Group
Consumer
2.15
2.04
-5.12%
15,033,621
29,794,271
2.51%
International Fish Farming
Consumer
8.00
9.95
24.38%
20,054,700
181,492,478
23.59%
Emirates Driving
Consumer
4.10
3.88
-5.37%
321,028
1,245,474
0.36%
FOODCO Holding Co.
Consumer
3.09
2.69
-12.94%
67,779
188,391
FUJAIRAH Trade Center
Consumer
0.00
0.00
0.00%
Gulf Livestock Co
Consumer
7.27
6.98
-3.99%
9,100
63,500
0.01%
National Corp. for Tourism & Hotels
Consumer
6.62
7.50
13.29%
5,769,480
43,276,600
5.24%
Ras Al Khaimah Poultry & Feeding
Consumer
1.87
1.54
-17.65%
348,685
560,672
0.40%
Arkan Building Materials
Construction
1.71
1.65
-3.51%
30,595,993
45,889,904
1.75%
Fujairah Building Industries
Construction
3 74 3.74
3 74 3.74
0 00% 0.00%
Fujairah Cement Industries
Construction
3.00
1.03
-65.67%
77,505
82,723
0.02%
Gulf Cement Company
Construction
1.58
1.29
-18.35%
498,598
708,556
0.06%
Umm Al-Qaiwain Cement Industries
Construction
0.77
0.69
-10.39%
2,219,333
1,522,447
0.61%
Ras Al Khaimah Cement
Construction
0.84
0.78
-7.14%
164,433,744
122,905,634
33.97%
Ras Al Khaimah Ceramic
Construction
2.67
2.28
-14.61%
17,057,845
40,705,080
2.52%
Ras Al Khaimah for White Cement & Const. MateConstruction
1.40
1.37
-2.14%
9,482,887
12,085,498
2.03%
-
-
-
-
0.07% 0.00%
0 00% 0.00%
Sharjah Cement & Industrial Dev.
Construction
0.88
0.70
-20.45%
2,279,095
1,702,807
0.41%
Union Cement
Construction
1.60
1.30
-18.75%
821,127
1,197,257
0.12%
Al Buhaira National Insurance
Insurance
9.00
9.00
0.00%
Kuwait & Middle East Financial Investment Company (K.S.C.C.) KMEFIC- P.O.Box 819 Safat 13009 Kuwait Tel.:(+965) 2225 5000 Fax:(+965) 2225 2563 www.kmefic.com.kw [email protected]
-
-
0.00% Page 3
ABU DHABI SECURITIES EXCHANGE Quarterly Report l First Quarter 2011 KMEFIC
Kuwait & Middle East Financial Investment Co. ADX Stocks - The Quarter Activity Sheet Name
Sector
30-Dec-2010
31-Mar-2011
Change
Volume (Shares)
Value (AED)
5,688,268
Shr Turnover Ratio
Abu Dhabi National Insurance
Insurance
6.96
6.10
-12.36%
Fujairah National Insurance
Insurance
300.00
300.00
0.00%
Al Khazna Insurance
Insurance
0.78
0.68
-12.82%
4,286,208
3,149,932
1.07%
Al Ain Ahlia Insurance
Insurance
47.00
47.00
0.00%
650
31,058
0.00%
Al Wathba National Insurance
Insurance
6.22
5.60
-9.97%
5,000
28,000
0.00%
Al Dhafra Insurance
Insurance
4.50
4.60
2.22%
472,810
2,244,676
0.63%
Emirates Insurance
Insurance
6.51
6.20
-4.76%
228,938
1,377,389
0.17%
-
35,528,295 -
1.52% 0.00%
Green Crescent Insurance
Insurance
0.76
0.73
-3.95%
84,236,795
57,127,434
33.69%
Methaq Takaful Insurance
Insurance
2.47
2.38
-3.64%
71,579,637
156,110,920
47.72%
Ras Al Khaimah National Insurance
Insurance
3.85
3.85
0.00%
-
-
0.00%
Sharjah Insurance
Insurance
5.25
5.25
0.00%
-
-
0.00%
Abu Dhabi National Takaful
Insurance
3.16
3.15
-0.32%
5,524
United Insurance
Insurance
4 00 4.00
4 00 4.00
0 00% 0.00%
-
Union Insurance
Insurance
2.21
2.21
0.00%
Dana Gas PJSC
Energy
0.73
0.65
-10.96%
1,392,478,094
933,184,759
-
19,130 -
0.01% 0 00% 0.00% 0.00% 21.10%
Abu Dhabi National Energy
Energy
1.48
1.48
0.00%
40,276,907
57,809,664
0.65%
Abu Dhabi Aviation
Industrial
2.85
3.07
7.72%
1,196,246
3,474,463
0.30%
Abu Dhabi Ship Building
Industrial
2.67
2.20
-17.60%
440,300
1,072,332
0.21%
Abu Dhabi National for Building Materials
Industrial
1.78
1.53
-14.04%
1,150,502
1,738,981
0.38%
National Marine Dredging
Industrial
10.50
10.00
-4.76%
718,804
7,968,683
0.33%
Gulf Medical Projects
Health Care
1.95
1.76
-9.74%
39,070
70,138
0.01%
Gulf Pharmaceutical
Health Care
1.87
1.95
4.28%
7,413,264
14,288,265
1.04% Page 4
Kuwait & Middle East Financial Investment Company (K.S.C.C.) KMEFIC- P.O.Box 819 Safat 13009 Kuwait Tel.:(+965) 2225 5000 Fax:(+965) 2225 2563 www.kmefic.com.kw [email protected]
Legal DISCLAIMER: This report is being provided for informational purposes only and on the condition that it will not form a primary basis for any investment decision. This report is not an offer to buy or sell any of the securities that may be referred to herein. herein In no event will KMEFIC be liable for any loss occurring from investment decisions made based on the recommendation here-enclosed. here-enclosed Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors should make their own decision on whether or not to buy or sell the securities covered herein based upon their specific investment goals and in consultation with their financial advisor. KMEFIC has no obligation to update, modify or amend this report or to otherwise make any notification or announcement thereof in the event that any matter stated herein, or any opinion, projection, forecast or estimate set forth herein, changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate. The inclusion of any opinions/estimates does not necessarily imply a recommendation or endorse the views expressed within them. Many areas of the report contain opinions and/or analysis that represent the involved analysts' views; neither the analysts nor KMEFIC shall be in any way liable for their opinions expressed in the report. This report has been prepared and issued by the Research Department @ Kuwait & Middle East Financial Investment Co. K.S.C.C. (KMEFIC), a licensed Kuwaiti investment company regulated by the Central Bank of Kuwait. KMEFIC prepared this report using publicly available information, internal data, and other sources considered reliable; however, KMEFIC makes no representations or warranties of any kind, express or implied, about the completeness, accuracy, reliability, suitability with respect to the report or the information, analysis, opinions, or related graphics contained on the report for any purpose. While great care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate, neither KMEFIC nor any of its employees shall be in any way responsible for the contents. Neither this document nor any of its contents may be distributed in any jurisdiction where its distribution is restricted by law. Neither this document nor its content may be copied, transmitted or distributed without the prior written consent of KMEFIC. Additional information on the contents of this report is available on request.
KMEFIC Research Department .م.ك.م.ﺷﺮآﺔ اﻟﻜﻮﻳﺖ واﻟﺸﺮق اﻷوﺳﻂ ﻟﻺﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ش Kuwait and Middle East Financial Investment Company K.S.C.C.
ABU DHABI SECURITIES EXCHANGE Quarterly Report l First Quarter 2011 The Quarter in brief... * Real Estate & Constrcution record big losses -- -* Geopolitical tensions -- -* Positive economic indicators ++
Volume (mil. Shrs)
Market Index & Trade Volume - 1Q- 2011 250
2,800
200
2,700
150
2,600
100
2,500
50 0
2,400
Jan-11
* Weak trading activity --
Volume
Market Overview
General Index
2,719.87
Current Quarter (1Q-2011)
Mar-11 10 per. Mov. Avg. (ADX)
2,607.12
General Index
Change (points)
(112.75)
Q-o-Q Change
-4.15%
End of 2010
▼
-4.1%
YTD Banks Change
-2.0%
Health Care
-2.3%
Telecommunication 2,719.87 -4.15%
-2.8%
▼
Consumer
Sectors Indices Banks Real Estate Energy Consumer Construction Insurance Telecommunication Industrial Health Care
Feb-11 ADX
ADX Indices returns in 1Q-2011
ADX Market Indices Previous Quarter (4Q-2010)
4,024.84 291.78 166.29 1,158.98 2,410.31 2,653.21 2,431.52 2 499 33 2,499.33 1,211.87
ADX
KMEFIC
Kuwait & Middle East Financial Investment Co.
3,942.97 215.41 160.03 1,119.74 2,025.81 2,530.31 2,363.94 2 392 26 2,392.26 1,184.06
(81.87) (76.37) (6.26) (39.24) (384.50) (122.90) (67.58) (107 07) (107.07) (27.81)
-2.03% -26.17% -3.76% -3.39% -15.95% -4.63% -2.78% 4 28% -4.28% -2.29%
▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼
-3.4%
4,024.84 -2.03% ▼ Energy 291.78 -26.17% ▼ Industrial 166.29 -3.76% ▼ Insurance 1,158.98 -3.39% ▼ 2,410.31 Construction -15.95% ▼ 2,653.21 Real -4.63% ▼ Estate -26.2% 2,431.52 -2.78% ▼ 2 499 33 -4.28% 4 28%-30% ▼ 2,499.33 S R h Source: KMEFIC Research 1,211.87 -2.29% ▼
-3.8% -4.3% -4.6% -16.0%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX) ended the first quarter of this year on a negative note. Along with other GCC stock markets, ADX was influenced by the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the MENA region. ADX’s main index ended 1Q-2011 down by 4.15%, as it closed at 2,607.12 points compared to 2,719.87 points registered by the end of the previous quarter. In addition to the main index, all of the market’s sectors concluded the first three months of the year with losses. The Real Estate sector was in the lead, as its index dropped by 26.17%, followed by the Construction sector at 15.95% loss, and the Insurance sector came in third with it index declining by 4.63%. Furthermore, ADX registered weak activity during the 1Q-2011. A total of 4.77 billion shares changed hands, 8.37% lower than the volume during the fourth quarter of 2010, whilst the turnover total declined by 19.07% reaching AED 7.47 billion. Nevertheless, there are a number of positive indicators with regard to Abu Dhabi’s economic situation. According to Department of Economic Development, the emirate’s real GDP is expected to advance by 7% this year to reach AED 554 billion compared to AED 517.8 billion in 2010. Non-oil sectors are expected to reach AED 268 billion in 2011, 10.6% higher than 2010’s figure. Furthermore, non-oil exports in Abu Dhabi grew by 22.2% last year, in comparison to 2009, to stand at AED 11.6 billion. Inflationary pressures, on the other hand, are considered low in Abu Dhabi when compared to other economies in the region.
1Q 2011 - Market Sectoral Data (Activity, Capitalization, Multiples) SECTORS
Volume (mil. Shrs)
Banks & Fin. Ser. Real Estate Telecommunication Consumer Construction Insurance Energy Industrial Health Care
445.97 2,343.45 98.25 44.49 227.47 166.50 1,432.76 3.51 7.45
Total Market YTD chng in M.Cap
4,769.84
Source: KMEFIC Research
% to market
Rank
3 1 6 7 4 5 2 9 8
Value (AED mil.)
9.35% 1,445.96 49.13% 3,200.96 2.06% 1,057.62 0.93% 265.07 4.77% 226.80 3.49% 255.62 30.04% 990.99 0.07% 14.25 0.16% 14.36 100.0% 7,471.62
Rank
2 1 3 5 7 6 4 9 8
% to market
19.35% 42.84% 14.16% 3.55% 3.04% 3.42% 13.26% 0.19% 0.19%
MCap (AED bil.)
% to Market
109.88 8.16 110.19 7.06 8.85 10.40 13.50 4.33 2.45
39.98% 2.97% 40.09% 2.57% 3.22% 3.78% 4.91% 1.58% 0.89%
274.84 100.0% -1.10%
Rank
2 6 1 7 5 4 3 8 9
N. of Co.
P/E
P/BV
ROE
16 3 3 9 10 15 2 4 2
9.96 4.33 12.72 8.88 14.10 15.24 17.89 7.71 14.91
1.27 0.57 1.27 1.11 0.83 1.73 0.75 0.98 1.29
13.35% 2.76% 12.31% 12.03% 5.30% 9.31% 6.56% 15.31% 9.28%
64
11.60
1.22
11.83%
Notes: (1)Market Valuation Multiples & ROE are weighted as per sectors capitalization. (3) Capitalization in Billion AED
Page 1 Kuwait & Middle East Financial Investment Company (K.S.C.C.) KMEFIC- P.O.Box 819 Safat 13009 Kuwait Tel.:(+965) 2225 5000 Fax:(+965) 2225 2563 www.kmefic.com.kw [email protected] (Kindly refer to the Disclaimer on the last page)
ABU DHABI SECURITIES EXCHANGE Quarterly Report l First Quarter 2011 KMEFIC
Kuwait & Middle East Financial Investment Co.
Technical Review
ADX vs. Two Support & Resistance Levels
ADX Index Volatility 30 Days 5.01%
General Index
60 Days 6.93%
90 Days 7.26%
52-weeks 10.44%
S1 2,510
R1 2,721
R2 2,834
ADX Index Support & Resistance S2 2,414
General Index
Market Activity Month/ Quarter
Volume (mil. Shrs)
3,100 3,000 2,900 2,800 2,700 2,600 2,500 2,400 2,300
Rank
(AED mil.)
1 3 6
3,973.82 2,932.08 2,326.19 9,232.09
1 2 5
January-11 February-11
1,535.77
4 5
2,484.99
4 6
1,252.78 1,981.29 4,769.84 -8.37%
2
2,146.91 2,839.72 7,471.62 -19.07%
3 Energy 30.0%
Market Breadth
Volume Allocation By Category
International Fish Farming Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank
9.95 2.49
24.38% 20.29%
20.05 120.27
Share Turnover 23.59% 2.50%
National Corp. for Tourism & Hotels Waha Capital Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank
7.50 0.82 3.22
13.29% 10.81% 8.78%
5.77 160.38 38.95
5.24% 9.26% 1.65%
Stock Fujairah Cement Industries AL DAR Properties Commercial Bank International Sharjah Cement & Industrial Dev. Sorouh Real Estate
Real Estate 49.1%
Banks & Fin. Ser. 9.3%
Top Gainers
Top Losers
Mar-11
Others 11.5%
Rank
2,360.33 1,645.53 1,199.44 5,205.30
Stock
Feb-11
Jan-11
Volume Allocation by Sector Value
October-10 November-10 November 10 December-10 Total 4Q-2010
March-11 Total 1Q-2011 Q-o-Q chng %
ADX 1rst Support 1rst Resistance 2nd Support 2nd Resistance
Close (AED)
Close (AED)
1.03 1.52 0.90 0.70 1.32
Change
Change -65.67% -33.33% -28.57% -20.45% -19.02%
Volume (mil. Shrs)
Volume (mil. Shrs)
Share Turnover
0.08 1,312.55 0.16 2.28 594.36
0.02% 50.92% 0.01% 0.41% 22.64%
Volume 1,392.48 1,312.55 594.36 436.54 164.43
% to market 29.19% 27.52% 12.46% 9.15% 3.45%
Value (AED mil.) 2 270 05 2,270.05 1,053.32 933.18 755.65 481.88
% to market 30 38% 30.38% 14.10% 12.49% 10.11% 6.45%
No-Change 0.85%
Gainers 8.60%
Losers 90.55%
Breadth & Market Share Category
Active Stocks Gainers Losers No-Change
Volume (mil.Shars)
Count
56 12 41 3
% to Market
4,769.84 100.0% 410 8.60%
4,319 40.528
90.55% 0.85%
Value AED
7,471.62 924 6,489 59.341
% to Market
100.0% 12.36% 86.85% 0.79%
Most Active by Volume Stock Dana Gas PJSC AL DAR Properties Sorouh Real Estate Ras Al Khaimah Properties Ras Al Khaimah Cement
Close (AED)
0.65 1.52 1.32 0.39 0.78
Change -10.96% -33.33% -19.02% -11.36% -7.14%
(mil. Shrs)
Most Active by Turnover Stock AL DAR Properties Etisalat Dana Gas PJSC Sorouh Real Estate First Gulf Bank
Close (AED)
1 1.52 52 10.50 0.65 1.32 16.00
Change -33.33% 33 33% -2.78% -10.96% -19.02% -12.33%
Main index’s volatility level increased during the 1Q-2011 as the 30 & 60 days volatility grew to 5.01% 5 01% and 6.93% 6 93% from 2.06% 2 06% & 3.80% respectively in 4Q-2010, whilst the 52-weeks volatility registered 10.44%, up from 9.70% in the previous quarter. Out of 64 listed issues in ADX, 56 stocks participated in trades during the first quarter of 2011. 12 stocks recorded gains, while 41 issues closed lower and 3 stocks closed with no change. Losing stocks stood for almost 91% of the overall market volume, whilst gaining stocks captured around 12% of the market’s total turnover turnover.
Page 2 Kuwait & Middle East Financial Investment Company (K.S.C.C.) KMEFIC- P.O.Box 819 Safat 13009 Kuwait Tel.:(+965) 2225 5000 Fax:(+965) 2225 2563 www.kmefic.com.kw [email protected]
ABU DHABI SECURITIES EXCHANGE Quarterly Report l First Quarter 2011 KMEFIC
Kuwait & Middle East Financial Investment Co. ADX Stocks - The Quarter Activity Sheet Name
Sector
30-Dec-2010
31-Mar-2011
Change
Volume (Shares)
Value (AED)
Shr Turnover Ratio
Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank
Banks & Fin. Ser.
2.07
2.49
20.29%
120,265,441
275,828,594
2.50%
Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank
Banks & Fin. Ser.
2.96
3.22
8.78%
38,951,671
119,542,252
1.65%
Bank Of Sharjah
Banks & Fin. Ser.
1.84
1.90
3.26%
15,868,120
28,338,114
0.76%
Commercial Bank International
Banks & Fin. Ser.
1.26
0.90
-28.57%
159,620
186,891
0.01%
First Gulf Bank
Banks & Fin. Ser.
18.25
16.00
-12.33%
28,529,772
481,877,629
1.90%
Finance House
Banks & Fin. Ser.
5.45
5.45
0.00%
250,000
1,500,000
0.08%
Invest Bank
Banks & Fin. Ser.
1.80
1.81
0.56%
1,792,235
2,896,661
0.16%
National Bank Of Abu Dhabi
Banks & Fin. Ser.
9.79
9.74
-0.51%
22,943,464
259,983,433
0.80%
National Bank of Fujairah
Banks & Fin. Ser.
5.00
4.14
-17.20%
70,600
205,422
0.01%
National Bank of Umm Al-Qaiwain
Banks & Fin. Ser.
2.24
2.00
-10.71%
411,529
872,294
0.03%
Oman & Emirates Invest. Holding
Banks & Fin. Ser.
1.00
0.90
-10.00%
224,988
202,984
0.18%
National Bank of Ras Al Khaima
Banks & Fin. Ser.
4.18
4.15
-0.72%
1,318,087
6,960,781
0.10%
Sharjah Islamic Bank
Banks & Fin Fin. Ser. Ser
0 93 0.93
0 87 0.87
-6 45% -6.45%
16 524 963 16,524,963
15 426 889 15,426,889
0 68% 0.68%
United Arab Bank
Banks & Fin. Ser.
5.43
5.65
4.05%
455,000
2,629,020
0.05%
Union National Bank
Banks & Fin. Ser.
2.85
2.92
2.46%
37,823,967
121,665,036
1.67%
Waha Capital
Banks & Fin. Ser.
0.74
0.82
10.81%
160,378,622
127,839,882
9.26%
AL DAR Properties
Real Estate
2.28
1.52
-33.33%
1,312,551,692
2,270,046,391
50.92%
Ras Al Khaimah Properties
Real Estate
0.44
0.39
-11.36%
436,540,456
175,255,600
21.83%
Sorouh Real Estate
Real Estate
1.63
1.32
-19.02%
594,359,094
755,653,165
22.64%
Etisalat
Telecommunication
10.80
10.50
-2.78%
96,926,819
1,053,315,607
1.23%
Qatar Telecom (Qtel)
Telecommunication
176.00
171.50
-2.56%
9,295
1,597,635
0.01%
Sudan Telecom.
Telecommunication
2.10
2.06
-1.90%
1,314,933
2,702,944
0.13%
Abu Dhabi National Hotels
Consumer
3.00
2.72
-9.33%
2,883,168
8,445,133
0.29%
AGTHIA Group
Consumer
2.15
2.04
-5.12%
15,033,621
29,794,271
2.51%
International Fish Farming
Consumer
8.00
9.95
24.38%
20,054,700
181,492,478
23.59%
Emirates Driving
Consumer
4.10
3.88
-5.37%
321,028
1,245,474
0.36%
FOODCO Holding Co.
Consumer
3.09
2.69
-12.94%
67,779
188,391
FUJAIRAH Trade Center
Consumer
0.00
0.00
0.00%
Gulf Livestock Co
Consumer
7.27
6.98
-3.99%
9,100
63,500
0.01%
National Corp. for Tourism & Hotels
Consumer
6.62
7.50
13.29%
5,769,480
43,276,600
5.24%
Ras Al Khaimah Poultry & Feeding
Consumer
1.87
1.54
-17.65%
348,685
560,672
0.40%
Arkan Building Materials
Construction
1.71
1.65
-3.51%
30,595,993
45,889,904
1.75%
Fujairah Building Industries
Construction
3 74 3.74
3 74 3.74
0 00% 0.00%
Fujairah Cement Industries
Construction
3.00
1.03
-65.67%
77,505
82,723
0.02%
Gulf Cement Company
Construction
1.58
1.29
-18.35%
498,598
708,556
0.06%
Umm Al-Qaiwain Cement Industries
Construction
0.77
0.69
-10.39%
2,219,333
1,522,447
0.61%
Ras Al Khaimah Cement
Construction
0.84
0.78
-7.14%
164,433,744
122,905,634
33.97%
Ras Al Khaimah Ceramic
Construction
2.67
2.28
-14.61%
17,057,845
40,705,080
2.52%
Ras Al Khaimah for White Cement & Const. MateConstruction
1.40
1.37
-2.14%
9,482,887
12,085,498
2.03%
-
-
-
-
0.07% 0.00%
0 00% 0.00%
Sharjah Cement & Industrial Dev.
Construction
0.88
0.70
-20.45%
2,279,095
1,702,807
0.41%
Union Cement
Construction
1.60
1.30
-18.75%
821,127
1,197,257
0.12%
Al Buhaira National Insurance
Insurance
9.00
9.00
0.00%
Kuwait & Middle East Financial Investment Company (K.S.C.C.) KMEFIC- P.O.Box 819 Safat 13009 Kuwait Tel.:(+965) 2225 5000 Fax:(+965) 2225 2563 www.kmefic.com.kw [email protected]
-
-
0.00% Page 3
ABU DHABI SECURITIES EXCHANGE Quarterly Report l First Quarter 2011 KMEFIC
Kuwait & Middle East Financial Investment Co. ADX Stocks - The Quarter Activity Sheet Name
Sector
30-Dec-2010
31-Mar-2011
Change
Volume (Shares)
Value (AED)
5,688,268
Shr Turnover Ratio
Abu Dhabi National Insurance
Insurance
6.96
6.10
-12.36%
Fujairah National Insurance
Insurance
300.00
300.00
0.00%
Al Khazna Insurance
Insurance
0.78
0.68
-12.82%
4,286,208
3,149,932
1.07%
Al Ain Ahlia Insurance
Insurance
47.00
47.00
0.00%
650
31,058
0.00%
Al Wathba National Insurance
Insurance
6.22
5.60
-9.97%
5,000
28,000
0.00%
Al Dhafra Insurance
Insurance
4.50
4.60
2.22%
472,810
2,244,676
0.63%
Emirates Insurance
Insurance
6.51
6.20
-4.76%
228,938
1,377,389
0.17%
-
35,528,295 -
1.52% 0.00%
Green Crescent Insurance
Insurance
0.76
0.73
-3.95%
84,236,795
57,127,434
33.69%
Methaq Takaful Insurance
Insurance
2.47
2.38
-3.64%
71,579,637
156,110,920
47.72%
Ras Al Khaimah National Insurance
Insurance
3.85
3.85
0.00%
-
-
0.00%
Sharjah Insurance
Insurance
5.25
5.25
0.00%
-
-
0.00%
Abu Dhabi National Takaful
Insurance
3.16
3.15
-0.32%
5,524
United Insurance
Insurance
4 00 4.00
4 00 4.00
0 00% 0.00%
-
Union Insurance
Insurance
2.21
2.21
0.00%
Dana Gas PJSC
Energy
0.73
0.65
-10.96%
1,392,478,094
933,184,759
-
19,130 -
0.01% 0 00% 0.00% 0.00% 21.10%
Abu Dhabi National Energy
Energy
1.48
1.48
0.00%
40,276,907
57,809,664
0.65%
Abu Dhabi Aviation
Industrial
2.85
3.07
7.72%
1,196,246
3,474,463
0.30%
Abu Dhabi Ship Building
Industrial
2.67
2.20
-17.60%
440,300
1,072,332
0.21%
Abu Dhabi National for Building Materials
Industrial
1.78
1.53
-14.04%
1,150,502
1,738,981
0.38%
National Marine Dredging
Industrial
10.50
10.00
-4.76%
718,804
7,968,683
0.33%
Gulf Medical Projects
Health Care
1.95
1.76
-9.74%
39,070
70,138
0.01%
Gulf Pharmaceutical
Health Care
1.87
1.95
4.28%
7,413,264
14,288,265
1.04% Page 4
Kuwait & Middle East Financial Investment Company (K.S.C.C.) KMEFIC- P.O.Box 819 Safat 13009 Kuwait Tel.:(+965) 2225 5000 Fax:(+965) 2225 2563 www.kmefic.com.kw [email protected]
Legal DISCLAIMER: This report is being provided for informational purposes only and on the condition that it will not form a primary basis for any investment decision. This report is not an offer to buy or sell any of the securities that may be referred to herein. herein In no event will KMEFIC be liable for any loss occurring from investment decisions made based on the recommendation here-enclosed. here-enclosed Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors should make their own decision on whether or not to buy or sell the securities covered herein based upon their specific investment goals and in consultation with their financial advisor. KMEFIC has no obligation to update, modify or amend this report or to otherwise make any notification or announcement thereof in the event that any matter stated herein, or any opinion, projection, forecast or estimate set forth herein, changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate. The inclusion of any opinions/estimates does not necessarily imply a recommendation or endorse the views expressed within them. Many areas of the report contain opinions and/or analysis that represent the involved analysts' views; neither the analysts nor KMEFIC shall be in any way liable for their opinions expressed in the report. This report has been prepared and issued by the Research Department @ Kuwait & Middle East Financial Investment Co. K.S.C.C. (KMEFIC), a licensed Kuwaiti investment company regulated by the Central Bank of Kuwait. KMEFIC prepared this report using publicly available information, internal data, and other sources considered reliable; however, KMEFIC makes no representations or warranties of any kind, express or implied, about the completeness, accuracy, reliability, suitability with respect to the report or the information, analysis, opinions, or related graphics contained on the report for any purpose. While great care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate, neither KMEFIC nor any of its employees shall be in any way responsible for the contents. Neither this document nor any of its contents may be distributed in any jurisdiction where its distribution is restricted by law. Neither this document nor its content may be copied, transmitted or distributed without the prior written consent of KMEFIC. Additional information on the contents of this report is available on request.
