ADAPTATION BLUEPRINT FOR PACIFIC COASTAL RAINFORESTS
ADAPTATION BLUEPRINT
FOR PACIFIC COASTAL RAINFORESTS: THE YALE FRAMEWORK (PRELIMINARY) Dominick DellaSala, Marni Koopman, Jessica Leonard – Geos Institute
Henrik von Wehrden & Patric Brandt – Leuphana University, Germany Karen Dillman & Sarah Jovan – U.S. Forest Service Mike Goldstein – Alaska Coastal Rainforest Center J. Schoen
www.geosinstitute.org J. Schoen
WHY THE YALE FRAMEWORK? 13 scientists convened by Yale School of Forestry & Environment Expertise in climate models, spatial and data applications, policy “a menu of approaches appropriate for ecological assessments that support conservation planning in a changing climate”
Federal (BLM, FS) and state (WA, VA, FL) agencies, academia, private sector 6 case studies funded in 2011 Outreach to practitioners, policy & decision makers interested in including conservation values/adaptation planning Gateway – www.databasin.org/yale
Pacific Coastal Blueprint & Yale Framework (Core Questions) How might rainforest communities and focal species shift in response to climate change and land use? How might key processes shift? What landscape and site features might act as climate refugia? How can conservation and management strategies respond proactively while costs are relatively low?
www.worldclim.org/bioclim; Hijmans et al. 2005
www.worldclim.org/bioclim; Hijmans et al. 2005
YALE FRAMEWORK GOALS (GENERAL GOALS)
ADAPTATION BLUEPRINT (GENERAL GOALS)
Develop broad framework to Test framework elements via identify important areas to conserve integrated assessment of spatially in era of climate change explicit adaptation opportunities
Recommend strategies, tools, and data to conduct assessments for biodiversity with climate change
Evaluate framework strategies in adaptation planning and develop adaptation “blueprint”
Provide guidance for managers on framework application
Feedback to Yale team, findings to ~2000 practitioners (EcoAdapt; www.cakex.org), web-based apps; LCC coordinators, FS scorecards
* not to be overly prescriptive
YALE FRAMEWORK (OBJECTIVES)
ADAPTATION BLUEPRINT (OBJECTIVES)
Protect Current Biodiversity - Establish baseline - Map biodiversity, ecosystem services, population trends
Map current distribution of rainforest assemblages, intact areas, focal species, reserves
Project Future Biodiversity - Forecast change/vulnerability - Map projected biodiversity and shifts in species/ecosystems
Model projected shifts in rainforest assemblages, and focal species distributions
Protect climate refugia/enduring “stage”
Construct MC1 vegetation stability– microrefugia (enduring features)
Maintain ecological/evolutionary processes, including connectivity
Project and map changes to fire, vegetation, microrefugia, intactness
LEVEL OF ORGANIZATION: REGIONAL “assess as many of the adaptation objectives and levels of ecological analysis as is feasible...”
LEVEL OF ORGANIZATION: PROTECTING THE ENDURING STAGE Pros – functional veg model, predict entire rainforest assemblages, fire, soils, humidity, freeze days, etc Cons – not a focal species approach Model agreement (certainty) among Hadley, CISRO, MIROC Climate refugia – stable areas Reserve/connectivity applications
LEVEL OF ORGANIZATION: FOCAL SPECIES
J. Schoen
L. Geiser
Commercial conifers: w. hemlock, m. hemlock, red cedar, yellow cedar, P. fir, S. fir, S. spruce, redwood Lichens: Alectoria sarmentosa, Lobaria oregana Cultural species - Sitka black-tailed deer Threatened species – murrelet, NSO
USFWS USFWS
SDMs & CLIMATE ENVELOPES Maxent presence only models Current distribution (point datasets) & future projections - 2050, 2080 Based on 3 IPCC models: CSIRO, Hadley, CCCMA IPCC scenarios considered: A1B – energy balance A2 – continuous increase 50 replicate runs per Maxent model
Model accuracy - AUC on remaining 30% dataset Highest resolution: 1 km2
INNER WORKINGS OF CLIMATE ENVELOPES BIO1 = Annual Mean Temperature BIO2 = Mean Diurnal Range (Mean of monthly (max temp - min temp)) BIO3 = Isothermality (BIO2/BIO7) (* 100) BIO4 = Temperature Seasonality (standard deviation *100) BIO5 = Max Temperature of Warmest Month BIO6 = Min Temperature of Coldest Month BIO7 = Temperature Annual Range (BIO5-BIO6) BIO8 = Mean Temperature of Wettest Quarter BIO9 = Mean Temperature of Driest Quarter BIO10 = Mean Temperature of Warmest Quarter BIO11 = Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter BIO12 = Annual Precipitation BIO13 = Precipitation of Wettest Month BIO14 = Precipitation of Driest Month BIO15 = Precipitation Seasonality (Coefficient of Variation) BIO16 = Precipitation of Wettest Quarter BIO17 = Precipitation of Driest Quarter BIO18 = Precipitation of Warmest Quarter BIO19 = Precipitation of Coldest Quarter
www.worldclim.org/bioclim; Hijmans et al. 2005
Source: databasin.org; updated from Ecotrust
APPLICATION POTENTIAL Back to the Future Management - management of commercial conifers based on realized climate niche and key stressors? Focal species vulnerability (NFMA planning rule) Management of climate refugia for biodiversity “cool spots” Comprehensive climate insurance = climate refugia + connectivity + critical ecosystem services + biological carbon storage – human stressors FS scorecards, NPLCC forest planning
FOR PACIFIC COASTAL RAINFORESTS: THE YALE FRAMEWORK (PRELIMINARY) Dominick DellaSala, Marni Koopman, Jessica Leonard – Geos Institute
Henrik von Wehrden & Patric Brandt – Leuphana University, Germany Karen Dillman & Sarah Jovan – U.S. Forest Service Mike Goldstein – Alaska Coastal Rainforest Center J. Schoen
www.geosinstitute.org J. Schoen
WHY THE YALE FRAMEWORK? 13 scientists convened by Yale School of Forestry & Environment Expertise in climate models, spatial and data applications, policy “a menu of approaches appropriate for ecological assessments that support conservation planning in a changing climate”
Federal (BLM, FS) and state (WA, VA, FL) agencies, academia, private sector 6 case studies funded in 2011 Outreach to practitioners, policy & decision makers interested in including conservation values/adaptation planning Gateway – www.databasin.org/yale
Pacific Coastal Blueprint & Yale Framework (Core Questions) How might rainforest communities and focal species shift in response to climate change and land use? How might key processes shift? What landscape and site features might act as climate refugia? How can conservation and management strategies respond proactively while costs are relatively low?
www.worldclim.org/bioclim; Hijmans et al. 2005
www.worldclim.org/bioclim; Hijmans et al. 2005
YALE FRAMEWORK GOALS (GENERAL GOALS)
ADAPTATION BLUEPRINT (GENERAL GOALS)
Develop broad framework to Test framework elements via identify important areas to conserve integrated assessment of spatially in era of climate change explicit adaptation opportunities
Recommend strategies, tools, and data to conduct assessments for biodiversity with climate change
Evaluate framework strategies in adaptation planning and develop adaptation “blueprint”
Provide guidance for managers on framework application
Feedback to Yale team, findings to ~2000 practitioners (EcoAdapt; www.cakex.org), web-based apps; LCC coordinators, FS scorecards
* not to be overly prescriptive
YALE FRAMEWORK (OBJECTIVES)
ADAPTATION BLUEPRINT (OBJECTIVES)
Protect Current Biodiversity - Establish baseline - Map biodiversity, ecosystem services, population trends
Map current distribution of rainforest assemblages, intact areas, focal species, reserves
Project Future Biodiversity - Forecast change/vulnerability - Map projected biodiversity and shifts in species/ecosystems
Model projected shifts in rainforest assemblages, and focal species distributions
Protect climate refugia/enduring “stage”
Construct MC1 vegetation stability– microrefugia (enduring features)
Maintain ecological/evolutionary processes, including connectivity
Project and map changes to fire, vegetation, microrefugia, intactness
LEVEL OF ORGANIZATION: REGIONAL “assess as many of the adaptation objectives and levels of ecological analysis as is feasible...”
LEVEL OF ORGANIZATION: PROTECTING THE ENDURING STAGE Pros – functional veg model, predict entire rainforest assemblages, fire, soils, humidity, freeze days, etc Cons – not a focal species approach Model agreement (certainty) among Hadley, CISRO, MIROC Climate refugia – stable areas Reserve/connectivity applications
LEVEL OF ORGANIZATION: FOCAL SPECIES
J. Schoen
L. Geiser
Commercial conifers: w. hemlock, m. hemlock, red cedar, yellow cedar, P. fir, S. fir, S. spruce, redwood Lichens: Alectoria sarmentosa, Lobaria oregana Cultural species - Sitka black-tailed deer Threatened species – murrelet, NSO
USFWS USFWS
SDMs & CLIMATE ENVELOPES Maxent presence only models Current distribution (point datasets) & future projections - 2050, 2080 Based on 3 IPCC models: CSIRO, Hadley, CCCMA IPCC scenarios considered: A1B – energy balance A2 – continuous increase 50 replicate runs per Maxent model
Model accuracy - AUC on remaining 30% dataset Highest resolution: 1 km2
INNER WORKINGS OF CLIMATE ENVELOPES BIO1 = Annual Mean Temperature BIO2 = Mean Diurnal Range (Mean of monthly (max temp - min temp)) BIO3 = Isothermality (BIO2/BIO7) (* 100) BIO4 = Temperature Seasonality (standard deviation *100) BIO5 = Max Temperature of Warmest Month BIO6 = Min Temperature of Coldest Month BIO7 = Temperature Annual Range (BIO5-BIO6) BIO8 = Mean Temperature of Wettest Quarter BIO9 = Mean Temperature of Driest Quarter BIO10 = Mean Temperature of Warmest Quarter BIO11 = Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter BIO12 = Annual Precipitation BIO13 = Precipitation of Wettest Month BIO14 = Precipitation of Driest Month BIO15 = Precipitation Seasonality (Coefficient of Variation) BIO16 = Precipitation of Wettest Quarter BIO17 = Precipitation of Driest Quarter BIO18 = Precipitation of Warmest Quarter BIO19 = Precipitation of Coldest Quarter
www.worldclim.org/bioclim; Hijmans et al. 2005
Source: databasin.org; updated from Ecotrust
APPLICATION POTENTIAL Back to the Future Management - management of commercial conifers based on realized climate niche and key stressors? Focal species vulnerability (NFMA planning rule) Management of climate refugia for biodiversity “cool spots” Comprehensive climate insurance = climate refugia + connectivity + critical ecosystem services + biological carbon storage – human stressors FS scorecards, NPLCC forest planning
