ADMIS Morning Grain Comments Dec 26, 2012 14.35
ADMIS Morning Grain Comments
Dec 26, 2012
Back to work. Early grain calls are mixed to higher. CH is near 7.04. SH is near 14.35. WH is near 7.93. Dollar is unchanged. US stocks are higher. Most commodities are higher. Asian markets were a little higher. Markets are expected to be quiet this week. US fiscal cliff, World weather, and slow demand for US exports are still bearish at these prices. Key will be USDA Jan 11 report and World/US 2013 weather. Some already est 2013 World corn production near 961.0 mmt vs 849.1 this year. This includes a US crop of 371.9 mmt vs 272.4 this past year. 2013 World wheat crop is est near 701.1 vs 655.1 this past year. FSU is est near 110.6 mmt vs 77.8 this past year. 2013 World soybean crop is est near 281.9 mmt vs 271.4 this year. This includes a US crop of 94.1 mmt vs 80.8. Looks like it had better rain in US and FSU to achieve those lofty est. US south plains 6-10 day outlook suggest normal to below rainfall and temps. Argentina 6-10 day outlook is for normal rainfall. Brazil 6-10 day outlook suggest normal rains central and south and normal to below rains north. Traditional funds bought 2,000 soybeans on Monday and are net long 139,000 soybean contracts. They are net long 49,000 soymeal (+1) and net short 33,000 soyoil -1). Funds bought 2,000 corn contracts and are net long 182,000 contracts and net short 6,000 wheat contracts (-1). Index funds were are reportedly net long 68,000 soybean contracts (+6), 89,000 soyoil (-4) , 15,000 soymeal (unch), 217,000 corn (+13), and 121,000 wheat (-1). Index funds are expected to rebalance their long commodity positions in early Jan. They are expected to be sellers of corn, Chicago wheat, soybeans, soyoil, and cattle and net buyers of KC wheat, soymeal, sugar, coffee and cotton. Commercials were short 405,000 corn (-53), 115,000 wheat (-20), and 196,000 soybeans (+20).
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Support Resistance Mar Beans 1424 1450 Mar Corn 700 715 Mar Chi. Wheat 790 800 Mar KC Wheat 840 851 Mar soyoil 4890 4950 Mar soymeal 430.0 440.0 Freed The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADM Investor Services, Inc. (“ADMIS”) and NOT Archer Daniels Midland Company. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of ADM Investor Services, Inc. is strictly prohibited. Again, the information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by Archer Daniels Midland Company. Copyright © ADM Investor Services, Inc.
Dec 26, 2012
Back to work. Early grain calls are mixed to higher. CH is near 7.04. SH is near 14.35. WH is near 7.93. Dollar is unchanged. US stocks are higher. Most commodities are higher. Asian markets were a little higher. Markets are expected to be quiet this week. US fiscal cliff, World weather, and slow demand for US exports are still bearish at these prices. Key will be USDA Jan 11 report and World/US 2013 weather. Some already est 2013 World corn production near 961.0 mmt vs 849.1 this year. This includes a US crop of 371.9 mmt vs 272.4 this past year. 2013 World wheat crop is est near 701.1 vs 655.1 this past year. FSU is est near 110.6 mmt vs 77.8 this past year. 2013 World soybean crop is est near 281.9 mmt vs 271.4 this year. This includes a US crop of 94.1 mmt vs 80.8. Looks like it had better rain in US and FSU to achieve those lofty est. US south plains 6-10 day outlook suggest normal to below rainfall and temps. Argentina 6-10 day outlook is for normal rainfall. Brazil 6-10 day outlook suggest normal rains central and south and normal to below rains north. Traditional funds bought 2,000 soybeans on Monday and are net long 139,000 soybean contracts. They are net long 49,000 soymeal (+1) and net short 33,000 soyoil -1). Funds bought 2,000 corn contracts and are net long 182,000 contracts and net short 6,000 wheat contracts (-1). Index funds were are reportedly net long 68,000 soybean contracts (+6), 89,000 soyoil (-4) , 15,000 soymeal (unch), 217,000 corn (+13), and 121,000 wheat (-1). Index funds are expected to rebalance their long commodity positions in early Jan. They are expected to be sellers of corn, Chicago wheat, soybeans, soyoil, and cattle and net buyers of KC wheat, soymeal, sugar, coffee and cotton. Commercials were short 405,000 corn (-53), 115,000 wheat (-20), and 196,000 soybeans (+20).
141 West Jackson Blvd. Suite 1600A Chicago, IL 60604 www.admis.com
Support Resistance Mar Beans 1424 1450 Mar Corn 700 715 Mar Chi. Wheat 790 800 Mar KC Wheat 840 851 Mar soyoil 4890 4950 Mar soymeal 430.0 440.0 Freed The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADM Investor Services, Inc. (“ADMIS”) and NOT Archer Daniels Midland Company. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of ADM Investor Services, Inc. is strictly prohibited. Again, the information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by Archer Daniels Midland Company. Copyright © ADM Investor Services, Inc.
