“Advanced Statistical Modeling and Cumulative Probability Distribution Functions for Healthcare Marketers”
Descriptive Predictive
WHAT WE SEE
WHAT WE WILL SEE
STATS …we don’t always get it.
Being Killed by a Shark
1 in 3.7 million
Dying of Heart Disease
DATA …is not always what it seems.
What if I did 10,000 more? Can I eat bacon today? Did I improve my mortality?
PICTURES …they tend to lie.
Correlation: 0.947091
Per Capita Consumption of Cheese (US) correlates with
Number of People Who Died by Becoming Tangled in Their Bedsheets Correlation: 0.947091
Credit: tylervigen.com
Honey Producing Bee Colonies correlates with
Juvenile Arrests for Possession of Marijuana (US) Correlation: - 0.933389
Credit: tylervigen.com
CONCLUSION: Legalize marijuana for juveniles and you will rebuild the honeybee population.
CANCER CLUSTERS
#ba$letheblob
Age Range
80-89 90+
Absolute Difference
≠
Relative Difference
Reduces the risk by 36%
Reduces the absolute risk by 36%
Reduces the risk of stroke by 25% SIDE EFFECT The risk of lung cancer is increased by 1% with regular use of Curital.
Reduces the risk of stroke by 25% SIDE EFFECT
ABSOLUTE The risk of lung cancer is increased by 1% with regular use of Curital.
RELATIVE
Reduces the risk of stroke by 0.1% SIDE EFFECT The risk of lung cancer is increased 100% with regular use of Curital.
Reduces the risk of stroke by 0.1% SIDE EFFECT
RELATIVE The risk of lung cancer is increased 100% with regular use of Curital.
ABSOLUTE
A little hazard can be a good thing.
Age Age at diagnosis Prior treatments Baseline # Risk factors
LOWERS MY RISK
−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−
Gender
1
INCREASES MY RISK
Charts lie. A lot.
My Drug
Your Drug
3.1 3.05 3 2.95 2.9 2.85
3.1
2.8
2.8
2.75 2.7
My Drug
Your Drug
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
3.1
2.8
My Drug
Your Drug
0
STATS …learn to love ‘em.
Big Data To Knowledge (BD2K) Health services based Product-based Disease/condition based Medication regimen Meaningful use Appointment tracker Other
46,558 Open Clinical Treatment Trials Increasing outcomes-based requirements
The Pledge
NoLiesNoDamns.com #NoLiesNoDamns @lizabethbennett
@jonmrich
Contact Amy Duda
[email protected] 212.614.5013 http://sudler.com @lizabethbennett
Jonathan Richman
[email protected] 513.253.1295 http://dose.co @jonmrich