Airports of Thailand Outperform (FY17E TP Bt435.00)
Earnings Review
Close Bt420.00
Transport & Logistics August 15, 2016
Beat forecast/Below forecast /In line
Better‐than‐expected net profit from extra item Price Performance (%)
Realized Bt465mn for DMK’s flood compensation (in 2011) in 3QFY16 In 3QFY16 (Apr‐Jun 16), AOT delivered net profit of Bt5.1bn, +24% YoY and ‐9% QoQ, 8% and 6% above our earnings estimate (Bt4.7bn) and the consensus expectation (Bt4.8bn) owing to realization of Bt465mn extra gain from compensation in case of flood at DMK during the end of 2011. Meanwhile, AOT recorded FX loss of Bt196mn owing to Thai baht depreciation against the Japanese yen in the quarter. Stripping out extra items, AOT’s normalized profit stood at Bt4.8bn, +17% YoY, ‐14% QoQ, in line with our expectation.
Source: SET Smart Consensus EPS (Bt) KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data Reuters / Bloomberg
FY16
FY17
13.433
15.683
1.8%
1.6%
AOT.BK/AOT TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
1,428.57
Par (Bt)
10.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
600.00/17,254.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
30.00/13.39
52 week High / Low (Bt)
430.00/252.00
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
3,221.00 4.97
Estimated free float (%)
29.99
Beta
0.78
URL
www.airportthai.co.th
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Level 2 (Declared)
Raenoo Bhandasukdi Analyst no. 17989
[email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5836
Maintain “Outperform” rating AOT’s earnings in 3QFY16 were in line with our expectation supported by strong passenger and flight volume. We expect these factors to remain major catalysts supporting AOT’s share price. In FY16‐18E, we expect AOT’s earnings to achieve 18% CAGR owing to better statistics and additional commercial revenue from DMK’s terminal 2 and HKT’s new terminal, which is likely to commence full commercial operations next year. We maintain our “Outperform” rating for AOT with the FY17E DCF‐ based TP of Bt435/share.
Passenger and flight volume growth still supporting earnings AOT’s norm. profit in 3QFY16 grew by 17% YoY owing mainly to passenger volume and flight increases, especially for LCCs, coupled with operating margin expansion. However, norm. profit fell by 14% QoQ on the seasonal pattern (low season for tourism industry). In the quarter, AOT’s passenger volume stood at 28.75mn (+11% YoY, ‐11% QoQ) with flight movements of 191,827 flights (+9% YoY, ‐3% QoQ) driven aeronautical revenue expand to Bt7.1bn (+11% YoY, ‐11% QoQ, 57% to total). Meanwhile, non‐aeronautical revenue also increased to Bt5.4bn (+22% YoY, ‐7% QoQ) owing mainly to revenue realization of the Advance Passenger Processing System (APPs) starting from Dec‐15. Maintain earnings projections For 9MFY16, AOT delivered net profit of Bt15.3bn, 78% of our full‐year net profit projection of Bt19.5bn. We thus maintain our earnings estimates for the whole year. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 30 Sep Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) Norm. profit (Btmn) Norm. EPS (Bt) Norm. EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 30 Sep Norm. PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
FY14 37,585 12,220 8.55 12,029 8.42 21.08 3.40 67.93 FY14 49.10 28.51 6.18 0.81 12.75 cash
FY15 43,969 18,729 13.11 15,755 11.03 30.97 6.54 76.01 FY15 32.04 21.91 5.53 1.56 15.32 cash
FY16E 51,086 19,537 13.68 19,537 13.68 24.01 6.82 82.87 FY16E 30.71 18.48 5.07 1.62 17.22 cash
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 3
FY17E 56,063 22,761 15.93 22,761 15.93 16.50 7.95 90.85 FY17E 26.36 16.35 4.62 1.89 18.34 cash
FY18E 61,253 25,567 17.90 25,567 17.90 12.33 8.93 99.82 FY18E 23.47 15.11 4.21 2.13 18.77 cash
Figure 1: Summary of assumptions for DCF‐based valuation for AOT 5.00 14.50 9.50 13.00 30.00 3.00 10.00
Risk‐free rate (Rf) % Market return (Rm)% Market risk premium (Rm‐Rf) % Cost of equity (Ke) % Debt‐to‐capital ratio (%) Perpetual growth rate (%) WACC (%)
Present value of free cash flow (FY17‐29E) Present value of terminal value Total present value of FCF Less: net debt (cash) as of end‐FY17E Total equity value Outstanding shares at end‐FY17E Equity value / share (Bt)
(Btmn) 254,425 335,187 589,612 (32,376) 632,988 1,429 435
Source: KT ZMICO Research
Figure 2: 3QFY16 earnings review Profit / Loss Year‐end 30 Sep Revenue Operating expenses Operating profit EBITDA Interest expenses Other income Income tax Forex gain (loss) Other extra items Net profit (loss) Normalized profit (loss) Reported EPS (Bt) Operating margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Net margin (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Debt/equity (x) BVPS (Bt) ROE (%) Revenue structure Aeronautical Non‐Aeronautical
3QFY15 10,856 (5,769) 5,087 6,565 (395) 414 (1,018) (14) ‐ 4,075 4,090 2.85
2QFY16 13,800 (6,812) 6,988 8,600 (349) 327 (1,353) (33) ‐ 5,567 5,600 3.90
3QFY16 12,572 (6,614) 5,958 7,559 (338) 362 (1,186) (196) 465 5,065 4,796 3.55
% YoY 15.8 14.6 17.1 15.1 (14.2) (12.5) 16.5 1,279.1 n.m. 24.3 17.3 24.3
% QoQ (8.9) (2.9) (14.7) (12.1) (3.0) 10.8 (12.3) 494.9 n.m. (9.0) (14.3) (9.0)
9MFY16 38,186 (19,377) 18,809 23,602 (1,048) 1,030 (3,768) (207) 465 15,257 15,000 10.68
% YoY 15.6 13.1 18.4 16.4 (13.9) (10.7) 16.1 (166.2) ‐ 18.5 19.4 18.5
46.9 60.5 37.5 3.1 12.9 0.3 71.6 16.1 6,397 4,459
50.6 62.3 40.3 3.5 20.0 0.3 77.9 20.0 7,978 5,822
47.4 60.1 40.3 3.9 17.6 0.3 81.4 16.9
49.3 61.8 40.0 3.9 17.9 0.3 81.4 18.1
7,129 5,443
11.4 22.1
(10.6) (6.5)
FY16E 51,086 (26,605) 24,480 30,915 (1,371) 1,350 (4,892) ‐ ‐ 19,537 19,537 13.68
YTD (% of 16E) 74.8 72.8 76.8 76.3 76.5 76.3 77.0 ‐ ‐ 78.1 76.8 78.1
49.0 62.0 39.6 3.8 16.6 0.2 82.9 17.2
Source: AOT, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 3
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, PLE, TPOLY, M‐CHAI, CI. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of ALT, EKH, RJH.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Pass (scores: 50 – 59) No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's returns over a six‐month period due to specific coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 3
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
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Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.