Al-Inma Bank - Aljazira Capital
Al-Inma Bank April 2016
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Bank Alinma: A positive surprise, lower provisions providing net income growth, Price target adjusted Downward, recommendation updated to “Overweight”. Financing and investment income healthy, lower provisions supporting bottom line: Alinma in 1Q-2016 posted earnings of SAR 391.0mn, depicting a
Recommendation
‘Overweight’
Current Price* (SAR)
13.26
Target Price (SAR)
16.12
Upside / (Downside)
21.6%
jump of13.66% YoY and 1.3%QoQ. Operating income for 1Q-2016 stood at SAR
Price Performance 24
Net financing and investment income stood at SAR 589mn depicting a jump
22
of 7.09%YoY and 3.15%QoQ, primarily supported by 8.51%YoY increase in
20
prices have remained subdued and the government has delayed payment to its creditors. Market Share improves, as deposits grow: The banks deposit base in Q12016, stood at SAR 68.8bn, showing jump of 11.7% YoY and 4.9% QoQ. Market share for the bank improved from 4.1% in Q1-2015 to 4.4% in Q1-2016. Loans portfolio in Q1-2016 reached SAR 60.25bn, depicting jump of 6.5%YoY
ALINMA-LHS
Mar-16
Jan-16
Feb-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
10
Sep-15
provisions will not continue, given the current economic weakness, as oil
12 Jul-15
resulting in 11.0%YoY fall in operating expenses. We believe the lower
14
Aug-15
On the expenses front the company registered lower provision, consequently
16
Jun-15
stood at 87.6% in Q1-2016 as compared to 86.3% in Q1-2015.
18
Mar-15
advances and rise in the lending rates. Alinma ADR(Advances to deposits)
Apr-15
income was primarily due to losses on investments available-for-sale.
*prices as of 14th of April 2016
May-15
734mn, translating into rise of 0.55% YoY and 5.9%QoQ fall. The fall in operating
Nov-15
Investment Update
10000 9500 9000 8500 8000 7500 7000 6500 6000 5500
TASI-RHS
Bank Alinma has been one of the fastest growing shariah compliant bank in the kingdom. Although the ROE has been improving, however, at a slower pace due to heavy reliance on financing activities. The corporate heavy loan book leaves the bank susceptible to concentration risk. In addition the weakness in oil prices will weight heavy on the Saudi economy as the government looks to cut on its expenditure, consequently slowing down assets growth. We cut our price
and 9.5% QoQ. ADR for the bank improved from 86.3% in Q4-2015 to 87.6% in
target downwards by 27.2% to SAR 16.12. This indicates the
Q1-2016.
stock, at a current market price , is trading at a discount of
Low ROE still a cause of concern: Bank Alinma has the lowest ROE as compared
1.19x, respectively. We We update our recommendation to
to its peer banks that are operating in the kingdom. We believe this is the result
“Overweight”.
21.6% and at prospective 2016 PE and PBV of 13.47x and
of the low market share of 4.4%, along with that the bank also has a very low share of other income sources. Approximately the bank generate 80% of its
Key Market Data
revenues from its core operations of financing and investments. However, what
Market Cap (mn) YTD % 52 Week (High ) 52 Week (Low) Shares Outstanding (mn)
is quite evident is that the bank has shown a constant improvement in ROE, as it has improved from 4% in 2012 to 8% in 2015. We believe the improvement in ROE is due to the increase in the banks market share, as it has improved from 2.6% in 2012 to 4.4% in Q1-2016. We believe, for the bank to improve its ROE, it will need to constantly improve its market share along with a conscious effort to improve contribution from other income source. Corporate-heavy loan book, gives rise to concentration risk: The banks’ loan book, shows a heavy bias towards corporate loans. In 2015, corporate loans constituted almost 77% of the gross loans. In our view retail loans are
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
Key Financials SARmn (unless specified)
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
Revenues Growth % Net Income Growth % EPS
2,547 11% 1,470 16% 0.99
2,838 11% 1,591 8% 1.07
3,214 13% 1,943 22% 1.31
less risky due to their granular nature, as compared to corporate loans, where heavy exposure is limited to a certain number of clients. In such a case a default by a single corporate client can have a much heavier impact due to the weight
Source: Company reports, Aljazira Capital
Key Ratios
of the loan. So far Alinma seems to be managing its’ corporate loans efficiently,
SARmn (unless specified)
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
in absolute term and in ratio terms. NPLs for corporate loans are lower than
NIMS Operating Margins Net Margins PE (x) PB (x)
3.84% 58.1% 57.7% 16.1 2.5
3.83% 56.5% 56.0% 15.2 2.4
3.99% 60.9% 60.4% 15.2 2.4
Dividend Yield Return On Assets Return On Equity Gross Loans
3.98% 2% 8% 5.47%
4.30% 2% 9% 8.36%
5.25% 2% 10% 6.37%
retail loans. However, that can change quickly if one or two high-profile clients default on their payments. Senior Analyst
Talha Nazar +966 11 2256115 [email protected]
1
19,800 -11.41% 25 11.8 1,500
Source: Company reports, Aljazira Capital
© All rights reserved
RESEARCH DIVISION
Acting Head of Research
RESEARCH DIVISION
BROKERAGE AND INVESTMENT CENTERS DIVISION
Talha Nazar
Sultan Al Kadi
Analyst
Jassim Al-Jubran
+966 11 2256115 [email protected]
+966 11 2256374 [email protected]
General Manager – Brokerage Services &
AGM-Head of international and institutional
AGM- Head of Western and Southern Region Investment Centers & ADC
sales
brokerage
Brokerage
Alaa Al-Yousef
Luay Jawad Al-Motawa
Abdullah Q. Al-Misbani
+966 11 2256060 [email protected]
+966 11 2256277 [email protected]
+966 12 6618400 [email protected]
AGM-Head of Sales And Investment Centers
AGM-Head of Qassim & Eastern Province
Central Region
Abdullah Al-Rahit
Sultan Ibrahim AL-Mutawa
+966 16 3617547 [email protected]
+966 11 2256364 [email protected]
+966 11 2256248 [email protected]
AlJazira Capital, the investment arm of Bank AlJazira, is a Shariaa Compliant Saudi Closed Joint Stock company and operating under the regulatory supervision of the Capital Market Authority. AlJazira Capital is licensed to conduct securities business in all securities business as authorized by CMA, including dealing, managing, arranging, advisory, and custody. AlJazira Capital is the continuation of a long success story in the Saudi Tadawul market, having occupied the market leadership position for several years. With an objective to maintain its market leadership position, AlJazira Capital is expanding its brokerage capabilities to offer further value-added services, brokerage across MENA and International markets, as well as offering a full suite of securities business. 1.
RATING TERMINOLOGY
Analyst
2. 3. 4.
Overweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a discount to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Overweight” will typically provide an upside potential of over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Underweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a premium to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Underweight” would typically decline by over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Neutral: The rating implies that the stock is trading in the proximate range of its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Neutral” is expected to stagnate within +/- 10% range from the current price levels over next twelve months. Suspension of rating or rating on hold (SR/RH): This basically implies suspension of a rating pending further analysis of a material change in the fundamentals of the company.
Disclaimer The purpose of producing this report is to present a general view on the company/economic sector/economic subject under research, and not to recommend a buy/sell/hold for any security or any other assets. Based on that, this report does not take into consideration the specific financial position of every investor and/or his/her risk appetite in relation to investing in the security or any other assets, and hence, may not be suitable for all clients depending on their financial position and their ability and willingness to undertake risks. It is advised that every potential investor seek professional advice from several sources concerning investment decision and should study the impact of such decisions on his/her financial/legal/tax position and other concerns before getting into such investments or liquidate them partially or fully. The market of stocks, bonds, macroeconomic or microeconomic variables are of a volatile nature and could witness sudden changes without any prior warning, therefore, the investor in securities or other assets might face some unexpected risks and fluctuations. All the information, views and expectations and fair values or target prices contained in this report have been compiled or arrived at by Aljazira Capital from sources believed to be reliable, but Aljazira Capital has not independently verified the contents obtained from these sources and such information may be condensed or incomplete. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained in this report. Aljazira Capital shall not be liable for any loss as that may arise from the use of this report or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. The past performance of any investment is not an indicator of future performance. Any financial projections, fair value estimates or price targets and statements regarding future prospects contained in this document may not be realized. The value of the security or any other assets or the return from them might increase or decrease. Any change in currency rates may have a positive or negative impact on the value/return on the stock or securities mentioned in the report. The investor might get an amount less than the amount invested in some cases. Some stocks or securities maybe, by nature, of low volume/trades or may become like that unexpectedly in special circumstances and this might increase the risk on the investor. Some fees might be levied on some investments in securities. This report has been written by professional employees in Aljazira Capital, and they undertake that neither them, nor their wives or children hold positions directly in any listed shares or securities contained in this report during the time of publication of this report, however, The authors and/or their wives/children of this document may own securities in funds open to the public that invest in the securities mentioned in this document as part of a diversified portfolio over which they have no discretion. This report has been produced independently and separately by the Research Division at Aljazira Capital and no party (in-house or outside) who might have interest whether direct or indirect have seen the contents of this report before its publishing, except for those whom corporate positions allow them to do so, and/or third-party persons/institutions who signed a non-disclosure agreement with Aljazira Capital. Funds managed by Aljazira Capital and its subsidiaries for third parties may own the securities that are the subject of this document. Aljazira Capital or its subsidiaries may own securities in one or more of the aforementioned companies, and/or indirectly through funds managed by third parties. The Investment Banking division of Aljazira Capital maybe in the process of soliciting or executing fee earning mandates for companies that is either the subject of this document or is mentioned in this document. One or more of Aljazira Capital board members or executive managers could be also a board member or member of the executive management at the company or companies mentioned in this report, or their associated companies. No part of this report may be reproduced whether inside or outside the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia without the written permission of Aljazira Capital. Persons who receive this report should make themselves aware, of and adhere to, any such restrictions. By accepting this report, the recipient agrees to be bound by the foregoing limitations.
Asset Management | Brokerage | Corporate Finance | Custody | Advisory Head Office: King Fahad Road, P.O. Box: 20438, Riyadh 11455, Saudi Arabia، Tel: 011 2256000 - Fax: 011 2256068
Aljazira Capital is a Saudi Investment Company licensed by the Capital Market Authority (CMA), license No. 07076-37
Please read Disclaimer on the back
Bank Alinma: A positive surprise, lower provisions providing net income growth, Price target adjusted Downward, recommendation updated to “Overweight”. Financing and investment income healthy, lower provisions supporting bottom line: Alinma in 1Q-2016 posted earnings of SAR 391.0mn, depicting a
Recommendation
‘Overweight’
Current Price* (SAR)
13.26
Target Price (SAR)
16.12
Upside / (Downside)
21.6%
jump of13.66% YoY and 1.3%QoQ. Operating income for 1Q-2016 stood at SAR
Price Performance 24
Net financing and investment income stood at SAR 589mn depicting a jump
22
of 7.09%YoY and 3.15%QoQ, primarily supported by 8.51%YoY increase in
20
prices have remained subdued and the government has delayed payment to its creditors. Market Share improves, as deposits grow: The banks deposit base in Q12016, stood at SAR 68.8bn, showing jump of 11.7% YoY and 4.9% QoQ. Market share for the bank improved from 4.1% in Q1-2015 to 4.4% in Q1-2016. Loans portfolio in Q1-2016 reached SAR 60.25bn, depicting jump of 6.5%YoY
ALINMA-LHS
Mar-16
Jan-16
Feb-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
10
Sep-15
provisions will not continue, given the current economic weakness, as oil
12 Jul-15
resulting in 11.0%YoY fall in operating expenses. We believe the lower
14
Aug-15
On the expenses front the company registered lower provision, consequently
16
Jun-15
stood at 87.6% in Q1-2016 as compared to 86.3% in Q1-2015.
18
Mar-15
advances and rise in the lending rates. Alinma ADR(Advances to deposits)
Apr-15
income was primarily due to losses on investments available-for-sale.
*prices as of 14th of April 2016
May-15
734mn, translating into rise of 0.55% YoY and 5.9%QoQ fall. The fall in operating
Nov-15
Investment Update
10000 9500 9000 8500 8000 7500 7000 6500 6000 5500
TASI-RHS
Bank Alinma has been one of the fastest growing shariah compliant bank in the kingdom. Although the ROE has been improving, however, at a slower pace due to heavy reliance on financing activities. The corporate heavy loan book leaves the bank susceptible to concentration risk. In addition the weakness in oil prices will weight heavy on the Saudi economy as the government looks to cut on its expenditure, consequently slowing down assets growth. We cut our price
and 9.5% QoQ. ADR for the bank improved from 86.3% in Q4-2015 to 87.6% in
target downwards by 27.2% to SAR 16.12. This indicates the
Q1-2016.
stock, at a current market price , is trading at a discount of
Low ROE still a cause of concern: Bank Alinma has the lowest ROE as compared
1.19x, respectively. We We update our recommendation to
to its peer banks that are operating in the kingdom. We believe this is the result
“Overweight”.
21.6% and at prospective 2016 PE and PBV of 13.47x and
of the low market share of 4.4%, along with that the bank also has a very low share of other income sources. Approximately the bank generate 80% of its
Key Market Data
revenues from its core operations of financing and investments. However, what
Market Cap (mn) YTD % 52 Week (High ) 52 Week (Low) Shares Outstanding (mn)
is quite evident is that the bank has shown a constant improvement in ROE, as it has improved from 4% in 2012 to 8% in 2015. We believe the improvement in ROE is due to the increase in the banks market share, as it has improved from 2.6% in 2012 to 4.4% in Q1-2016. We believe, for the bank to improve its ROE, it will need to constantly improve its market share along with a conscious effort to improve contribution from other income source. Corporate-heavy loan book, gives rise to concentration risk: The banks’ loan book, shows a heavy bias towards corporate loans. In 2015, corporate loans constituted almost 77% of the gross loans. In our view retail loans are
Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital
Key Financials SARmn (unless specified)
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
Revenues Growth % Net Income Growth % EPS
2,547 11% 1,470 16% 0.99
2,838 11% 1,591 8% 1.07
3,214 13% 1,943 22% 1.31
less risky due to their granular nature, as compared to corporate loans, where heavy exposure is limited to a certain number of clients. In such a case a default by a single corporate client can have a much heavier impact due to the weight
Source: Company reports, Aljazira Capital
Key Ratios
of the loan. So far Alinma seems to be managing its’ corporate loans efficiently,
SARmn (unless specified)
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
in absolute term and in ratio terms. NPLs for corporate loans are lower than
NIMS Operating Margins Net Margins PE (x) PB (x)
3.84% 58.1% 57.7% 16.1 2.5
3.83% 56.5% 56.0% 15.2 2.4
3.99% 60.9% 60.4% 15.2 2.4
Dividend Yield Return On Assets Return On Equity Gross Loans
3.98% 2% 8% 5.47%
4.30% 2% 9% 8.36%
5.25% 2% 10% 6.37%
retail loans. However, that can change quickly if one or two high-profile clients default on their payments. Senior Analyst
Talha Nazar +966 11 2256115 [email protected]
1
19,800 -11.41% 25 11.8 1,500
Source: Company reports, Aljazira Capital
© All rights reserved
RESEARCH DIVISION
Acting Head of Research
RESEARCH DIVISION
BROKERAGE AND INVESTMENT CENTERS DIVISION
Talha Nazar
Sultan Al Kadi
Analyst
Jassim Al-Jubran
+966 11 2256115 [email protected]
+966 11 2256374 [email protected]
General Manager – Brokerage Services &
AGM-Head of international and institutional
AGM- Head of Western and Southern Region Investment Centers & ADC
sales
brokerage
Brokerage
Alaa Al-Yousef
Luay Jawad Al-Motawa
Abdullah Q. Al-Misbani
+966 11 2256060 [email protected]
+966 11 2256277 [email protected]
+966 12 6618400 [email protected]
AGM-Head of Sales And Investment Centers
AGM-Head of Qassim & Eastern Province
Central Region
Abdullah Al-Rahit
Sultan Ibrahim AL-Mutawa
+966 16 3617547 [email protected]
+966 11 2256364 [email protected]
+966 11 2256248 [email protected]
AlJazira Capital, the investment arm of Bank AlJazira, is a Shariaa Compliant Saudi Closed Joint Stock company and operating under the regulatory supervision of the Capital Market Authority. AlJazira Capital is licensed to conduct securities business in all securities business as authorized by CMA, including dealing, managing, arranging, advisory, and custody. AlJazira Capital is the continuation of a long success story in the Saudi Tadawul market, having occupied the market leadership position for several years. With an objective to maintain its market leadership position, AlJazira Capital is expanding its brokerage capabilities to offer further value-added services, brokerage across MENA and International markets, as well as offering a full suite of securities business. 1.
RATING TERMINOLOGY
Analyst
2. 3. 4.
Overweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a discount to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Overweight” will typically provide an upside potential of over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Underweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a premium to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Underweight” would typically decline by over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Neutral: The rating implies that the stock is trading in the proximate range of its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Neutral” is expected to stagnate within +/- 10% range from the current price levels over next twelve months. Suspension of rating or rating on hold (SR/RH): This basically implies suspension of a rating pending further analysis of a material change in the fundamentals of the company.
Disclaimer The purpose of producing this report is to present a general view on the company/economic sector/economic subject under research, and not to recommend a buy/sell/hold for any security or any other assets. Based on that, this report does not take into consideration the specific financial position of every investor and/or his/her risk appetite in relation to investing in the security or any other assets, and hence, may not be suitable for all clients depending on their financial position and their ability and willingness to undertake risks. It is advised that every potential investor seek professional advice from several sources concerning investment decision and should study the impact of such decisions on his/her financial/legal/tax position and other concerns before getting into such investments or liquidate them partially or fully. The market of stocks, bonds, macroeconomic or microeconomic variables are of a volatile nature and could witness sudden changes without any prior warning, therefore, the investor in securities or other assets might face some unexpected risks and fluctuations. All the information, views and expectations and fair values or target prices contained in this report have been compiled or arrived at by Aljazira Capital from sources believed to be reliable, but Aljazira Capital has not independently verified the contents obtained from these sources and such information may be condensed or incomplete. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained in this report. Aljazira Capital shall not be liable for any loss as that may arise from the use of this report or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. The past performance of any investment is not an indicator of future performance. Any financial projections, fair value estimates or price targets and statements regarding future prospects contained in this document may not be realized. The value of the security or any other assets or the return from them might increase or decrease. Any change in currency rates may have a positive or negative impact on the value/return on the stock or securities mentioned in the report. The investor might get an amount less than the amount invested in some cases. Some stocks or securities maybe, by nature, of low volume/trades or may become like that unexpectedly in special circumstances and this might increase the risk on the investor. Some fees might be levied on some investments in securities. This report has been written by professional employees in Aljazira Capital, and they undertake that neither them, nor their wives or children hold positions directly in any listed shares or securities contained in this report during the time of publication of this report, however, The authors and/or their wives/children of this document may own securities in funds open to the public that invest in the securities mentioned in this document as part of a diversified portfolio over which they have no discretion. This report has been produced independently and separately by the Research Division at Aljazira Capital and no party (in-house or outside) who might have interest whether direct or indirect have seen the contents of this report before its publishing, except for those whom corporate positions allow them to do so, and/or third-party persons/institutions who signed a non-disclosure agreement with Aljazira Capital. Funds managed by Aljazira Capital and its subsidiaries for third parties may own the securities that are the subject of this document. Aljazira Capital or its subsidiaries may own securities in one or more of the aforementioned companies, and/or indirectly through funds managed by third parties. The Investment Banking division of Aljazira Capital maybe in the process of soliciting or executing fee earning mandates for companies that is either the subject of this document or is mentioned in this document. One or more of Aljazira Capital board members or executive managers could be also a board member or member of the executive management at the company or companies mentioned in this report, or their associated companies. No part of this report may be reproduced whether inside or outside the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia without the written permission of Aljazira Capital. Persons who receive this report should make themselves aware, of and adhere to, any such restrictions. By accepting this report, the recipient agrees to be bound by the foregoing limitations.
Asset Management | Brokerage | Corporate Finance | Custody | Advisory Head Office: King Fahad Road, P.O. Box: 20438, Riyadh 11455, Saudi Arabia، Tel: 011 2256000 - Fax: 011 2256068
Aljazira Capital is a Saudi Investment Company licensed by the Capital Market Authority (CMA), license No. 07076-37
