Arctic Shipping and the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment

Arctic Shipping and the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment

Rob Huebert Centre for Military and Strategic Studies Department of Political Science University of Calgary

http://www.amap.no/acia/index.html -Commissioned by Arctic Council -Conducted by Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP), Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna (CAFF) with International Arctic Science Committee (IASC) -fully referenced, referred, international study -four years, 100s of scientists and researchers

Carbon Gas Emissions

Carbon Gases and Temperature Rise

Climate Change and the Arctic

Observed Temperature Rise in the Arctic

Observed Surface and Air Temperature 1954-2003

Observed Seasonal Arctic Sea-Ice Extent

Observed Sea Ice – Satellite Imagery

Projected Temperature Rise

Projected Temperature Change

Projected Changes in Sea Ice

Projected Ice Extent –2010-2090 September

Shipping Lanes and Projected Ice Cover

Projected Navigation – Northern Sea Route

Shipping Distances Panama Canal vs NWP

14,630 km

23,335 km

Differences between Northern Sea Route and North West Passage • Development of Infrastructure • Melt Rate • Charting

Impact on Canada • • • •

Sovereignty Environment Coastal Communities Ship Safety