Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission
Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission
1050 N. Highland Street • Suite 200A-N • Arlington, VA 22201 703.842.0740 • 703.842.0741 (fax) • www.asmfc.org
MEMORANDUM
TO: AmericanLobsterManagementBoard FROM: AmericanLobsterTechnicalCommittee DATE: January25,2017 SUBJECT: AnalysisonPotentialFisheryImpactsasaResultoftheNEFMCCoralAmendment TheNewEnglandFishermenManagementCounciliscurrentlyworkingonanOmnibusDeep SeaCoralAmendmentwhichlookstoprotectdeepseacoralhabitatinthenorthwestAtlantic Ocean.ThisAmendmentmayimpactthelobsterandJonahcrabfisheriesascurrently,thereare proposedclosuresintheGulfofMaineandGeorgesBank.Inanefforttoestimatepotential impactstothelobsterandJonahcrabfisheries,theTechnicalCommittee(TC)conductedtwo analyses,onewhichestimatesimpactstotheoffshorefleetwhichfishesinandaroundthe canyons,andanotherwhichestimatesimpactstotheMainelobsterfleetwhichfishesaround MountDesertRockandOuterSchoodicRidge.Theintentoftheseanalysesistwofold.Thefirst objectiveistoprovideanestimateofthepotentialimpactstothelobsterandJonahcrab fisherieswhichdoesnotrelyondatasolelyfromVesselTripReports.Thesecondobjectiveisto provideanothermethodofanalysiswhichcanbecomparedtotheimpactanalysiscurrently beingconductedbytheNewEnglandFisheryScienceCenter. Thisreportiscomprisedoftwoparts.Thefirstpartestimatesimpactstotheoffshorelobster andJonahcrabfleetbyusingdatafromASMFC’srecentmailͲinsurveyaswellasbathymetry datafromNOAA.Itlooksattheimpactofvariousscenarios,includingdiscretecanyonzones, broaddepthzones,andthenationalmonument.Thesecondpartestimatesimpactstothe MainelobsterfleetwhichfishesaroundMountDesertRockandOuterSchoodicRidge.This analysisusesthreedifferentmethodstoestimateimpactstolandingsandrevenue,and considerspotentialimplicationsofdeepͲseacoralclosuresonwhales. 1. AlternativeAnalysisofLobsterFishingActivityinDeepͲSeaCoralZonesOffGeorgesBank. TheNewEnglandFisheriesManagementCouncilisconsideringdifferentscenariosfor protectingpotentiallysensitivebenthichabitatsalongtheshelfedgeofSouthernNewEngland andthesouthsideofGeorgesBank.Specifically,theCouncilisinterestedinunderstandinghow differentclosurescenarioswouldimpactfisheriesinthisregion.Oneanalysishasbeen conductedbyNEFSCstaff,basedprimarilyonrevenueandcoordinatesfromvesseltripreports (VTRs).Thisfirstapproachrecognizesandattemptstomodeltheuncertaintyofthereported VTRcoordinatesbydistributingthereportedlandingstoaneighborhoodaroundthereported coordinates,thenestimatingimpactsofdifferentspatialclosures.TheTC’sanalysisexaminesan alternatemethodforassigningvaluetodifferenthabitatsandexploringtheimpactsofdifferent scenarios.ThemethodisappliedspecificallytotheoffshoreAmericanlobsterandJonahcrab
Vision: Sustainably Managing Atlantic Coastal Fisheries
industry,oneofthefleetsexpectedtobemostaffectedbysuchclosures,andislargely independentoftheVTRdata.Theprimarypurposeforthisalternateanalysisistovalidatethe estimatesfromNEFSCbasedonVTRcoordinates.However,comparisonstothisanalysisarenot includedinthisdocumentbecausetheNEFSCreportisnotyetfinalized. Methods Theregionofinterestwasdefined,basedonprovidedshapefilesfordifferentscenarios,to includeNMFSstatisticalareas525,526,541,542,543,562,andareas534and537eastofͲ 70.55longitude. Avalueforeachportionofhabitatintheproposedclosureregionwasestimatedbycombining resultsfromarecentmailͲinsurveyofLMA3Fishermen(Whitmoreetal.2016)witharegional bathymetrymap.Inthesurvey,fishermenprovidedtheestimatedproportionoftheireffort andrevenueacrossdepthintervalsof400m. FishermenalsoprovidedtheirgrosslobsterandJonahcrabrevenuefor2014and2015fromthe regionofinterest.ThoughallfishermenwithArea3lobsterlicenseswerecontactedforthe survey,lessthanhalfrespondedandnotallresponsesincludedallrelevantinformationforthis analysis.Thus,itwasnecessarytoassumethattheresponsesthatincludedthenecessary informationarerepresentativeofthefishingfleetinthisregion(35%ofArea3fishermen respondedtothesurvey).Percenteffortandrevenuewereaveragedacrossapplicable fishermentogetmeanunweightedestimatesofeffortandrevenueforeachdepthinterval.To accountfordifferencesincatchandrevenueamongreportingvessels,thevesselreported depthdistributionsofeffortandrevenuewereweightedbythemeanreportedrevenuefor lobstersandJonahcrabsacross2014Ͳ2015togetaweighteddistributionofeffortandrevenue acrossdepth. Toattributethiseffortandrevenuetobottomhabitat,bathymetrydatafromtheNOAANCEI U.S.CoastalReliefModelwasused(Retrieved9/10/2013, http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/mgg/coastal/crm.html),whichhasaresolutionof3arcminutes. Thespatialextentoftherasterwastrimmedtotheareaofinterestwithdepthsoflessthan 500masfishermen’sresponsesindicatethatthereisminimalfishingoccurringbelow500m. Potentialcaveatsofthisassumptionareaddressedinthediscussion.Eachpixelwasthen assignedtoadepthcategoryconsistentwiththedepthintervalsthatwereusedinthe fishermensurveyanddistributedthereportedmeaneffortforeachdepthintervalevenly acrossallpixelsintherespectivedepthinterval.Thisisacriticaloversimplificationandpotential sourceofbiasinthisanalysisasitassumesthatallpixelswithinadepthintervalareequally productiveforlobsterandJonahcrabfishing(i.e.habitatalongsubmarinecanyonshavethe sameproductivityashabitatatasimilardepthalongtheshelfedgebetweencanyons). Impactsofaclosurescenariooneffortorrevenuewerecalculatedbyoverlayingtheclosed areasonthebathymetrymapandsummingtheeffortorrevenuevalue(unweightedor weighted)ofallpixelsfallinginsidetheclosurescenario.Oftheproposedscenarios,evaluated closuresincludeddepthsgreaterthan300mor400m,(hereafter300m+and400m+ respectively)theclosureofDiscreteCanyons(hereafterDC),andthecombinationsofthedepth 2
basedandDiscreteCanyonsscenarios(Figures1Ͳ3).Therearealsoscenariosproposedfor depthsgreaterthan500mor600mbuttherewasnotenougheffortdataforthesescenariosin thisanalysis.Becauseanationalmonumenthasbeenlegislatedforhabitatwithinthisregion, theimpactsofthenationalmonumentwerealsoevaluatedaswellasthefiveabovescenarios plusthenationalmonumenttogetthetotalimpactsofclosures,existingandproposed. Actuallossofrevenueforeachoftheabovescenarioswasestimatedbyapplyingpercentageof lostrevenuetothetotalrevenuefromtheregion.Thoughestimatedrevenuewasreportedin thesurvey,thesurveyresponsesrepresentanunknownportionofthetotalvesselsoperatingin theregions,soitwasnecessarytouseVTRstoestimatetotalrevenueforallvesselsinthe region.WhilevesselsfishinginfederalwatersonlyforlobstersarenotrequiredtofileVTRs, 95%ofresponsestotheWhitmoreetalsurveyreportedfilingVTRs,soitmaybeassumedthat themajorityofcatchfromthisregionisrecordedinVTRsandaccountedforinouranalysis.To examinefisheryrevenueforthisareaoverthelastdecade,datawasextractedforallVTRsfrom 2006–2015thatreportedfishinglobsterpots.Precisespatialdatawasnotnecessaryformost casesastheanalysismostlyincludesthespatialextentofentirestatisticalareas.NotallVTRs hadassignedstatisticalareasbutexaminationoftheVTRlandingsbyyearsuggestedthat >99.9%ofVTRlandingsincludedareportedstatisticalareasifthedatawereconstrainedto 2011–2015.Statisticalareas534and537areonlypartiallyincludedintheproposedclosure areas,requiringmoreprecisespatialdatafortheseareas.Thus,thesestatareasweresplitat 70.55oWlongitude(westernextentofclosurescenarios)and,usingtheVTRsthathadreported coordinates,calculatedthepercentageoflandingsbyyeareastofthisboundary,relativeto landingsfortheentirestatisticalareasandthenappliedthesepercentagestotheremaining VTRsthatlackedcoordinatestocalculatethetotallandingsforthesestatisticalareaseastofthe boundary. Revenuewasthensummedacrossstatisticalareaswithinyearandexaminedlandingstrends for2011–2015.Regionalrevenueincreasedacrosstheseyearsbutwassimilarfor2014and 2015,sotheaverageofthetwoyearswereusedtoprojectrevenueloss. Results OfthevesselsthatrepliedtothemailͲinsurvey,15reportedfishingintheregionofinterest andsuppliedeffortandrevenuepercentagesbydepth.12ofthese15alsoreportedtotal revenuefortheregionsoonlythese12wereusedforcalculatingweighteddepthͲdistributions ofeffortandrevenue. Basedonthesurveyresults,the200–300mdepthzonehasthehighestfishingeffortbutthe 100–200mdepthzonehasmarginallyhigherrevenuevalue(Table1).Atotalof26.6%and 32.6%ofeffort(unweightedandweighted)isin300mdepthsorgreaterand3.7%and6.1%of effort(unweightedandweighted)isingreaterthan400m.Similarly,atotalof20.9%and27.9% oflobsterandJonahcrabrevenue(unweightedandweighted)isreportedfromdepthsgreater than300mand2.7%and4.8%oflobsterandJonahcrabrevenue(unweightedandweighted) comesfromdepthsgreaterthan400m.Most(78.8%)ofthehabitatwithinthestatisticalareas thatencompasstheregionofinterestisinlessthan100mdepthswithonly3.1%ofthehabitat 3
indeeperthan300metersand1.4%ofthehabitatdeeperthan400m(recallthathabitat deeperthan500misnotincludedaspotentiallobsterhabitatforthepurposeofthisanalysis). Itisnoteworthythatthe300Ͳ400mdepthintervalrepresentsamoderateamountofeffort (22.9%and26.5%)andrevenue(18.1%and23.1%)butalsorepresentsaverysmallportionof thehabitat.Thissuggeststhatthisdepthincrementmayhavethehighestdensityoffishing activity(i.e.highesteffortͲtoͲhabitatareaorrevenueͲtoͲhabitatarearatios),followedbythe 200–300mdepthincrement. ForscenarioswheretheexistingNationalMonumentwerenotincluded,theweighted estimateswereconsistentlyhigherthantheunweightedestimates,suggestingthatvesselsthat reportedhigherrevenuesweregenerallyfishingdeeperthanvesselsthatreportedlower revenues(Table2).Ingeneral,theareawithintheDiscreteCanyonsscenarioaccountsfor about10%oftheeffortand8%oftherevenue,representing$1.4–1.8millioninannuallobster andJonahcrabrevenue.The300m+scenarioencompasses23–28%oftheeffort,and17– 23%oftherevenue,representing$3.4–$4.5millioninannuallobsterandJonahcrabrevenue. Thecombined300m+andDCscenarioareonlyslightlyhigherthanthe300m+scenarioasthe DCscenarioincludesverylittlehabitatthatisnotalreadyaccountedforinthe300m+scenario. The400m+scenarioencompasses5.5Ͳ7.5%oftheeffortand4.1Ͳ6.2%oftherevenue, accountingfor$0.8Ͳ$1.2millioninannuallobsterandJonahcrabrevenue.Becauseaddingthe DCscenariotothe400m+scenarioaddsasignificantamountofshallowerhabitat,the combinedscenariohasconsiderablyhigherimpacts,encompassing11.9Ͳ14.6%oftheeffortand 9Ͳ12.3%oftherevenue,representing$1.7–2.4millioninannuallobsterandJonahcrab revenue. ThenewlyͲdesignatednationalmonumentitselfisestimatedtoaccountfor13Ͳ14.3%ofthe regionaleffortand12.2–14.3%oftherevenue,representing$2.4–2.8millioninannual lobsterandJonahcrabrevenue(Table3).Becausethenationalmonumentincludes considerableamountsofproductivehabitatshallowerthan300m,combiningthenational monumentwiththedifferentscenariosincreasestheexpectedimpactsforallscenarios, increasingeffortandrevenueimpactsbyaboutanadditional10%.The300m+withDCandthe monumentcombinedscenariowouldhavethehighestimpact,encompassing33Ͳ38.4%of regionaleffortand27.5–33.4%ofrevenue,accountingforabout$5.4–6.5millioninannual lobsterandJonahcrabrevenue. Discussion Therangeinvaluespresentedforeachscenarioaboverepresentsthedifferencebetween unweightedandweightedestimatesanddonotrepresenttheuncertaintyintheestimates.The depthdistributionsofeffortandrevenuedatacomefromselfͲreportedmailͲinsurveysfroma limitednumberoffishermenthatmaynotaccuratelyrepresentallthevesselsinthesurvey area.Thus,giventhesmallsamplesize,itisdifficulttoknowhowaccuratetheassumeddepth distributionsofeffortandrevenueare.Theanalysisisalsobasedondatafromtherecentyears andnotnecessarilypredictiveofthefuture.Fromconversationswithindustry,manyofthe vesselsworkingthisregionhavebeenfishingthesamegeneralareaformanyyears.However, givenlargeͲscaleshiftsinlobsterdistributionstothesouthandwestandtheincreasing pressureonJohancrabs,thisregionmaybecomemoreimportanttotheoffshorefishery. 4
Closureswillalsoimpactvesselsunequally.Asmentionedintheresults,theweightedestimates ofeffortandrevenueimpactsareconsistentlyhigherthanunweightedestimatesacrossthe scenarios.Thissuggeststhatvesselsreportinghigherlandingsinthisregiontendtofishdeeper andwouldbemoreimpactedbyclosures.Ofthe14surveyrespondentsthatprovidedadepth distributionoftheirfishingeffort,threereportednoeffortbelow300mandfivereported50% ormoreoftheireffortbelow300m. Itissimilarlydifficulttopredictthedirectionalityofbiasinthisanalysis.Thetotalrevenue impactsarepartiallyderivedfromVesselTripReportsandassumethat100%ofvesselsfishing thisareaaresubmittingVTR’s.Thus,anylevelofreportingbelow100%wouldnecessarilybias thetotalrevenueestimateslowerthanactual. Thenecessaryassumptionthatallhabitatisequallyproductiveisalmostcertainlyincorrect,as deephabitatalongcanyonsisprobablymorestructurallycomplexandproductivethansuch habitatalongtheshelfedge,whichwouldalsobiastheDiscreteCanyons,aswellasthe400m+ andDC,scenarioslow.Lobstervesselshavetodistributetheirfishinggearacrossafairamount ofspacetofisheffectively.Thus,itisalsopossiblethat,withtheclosureofdeeperhabitats, theremaybeinsufficienthabitatalongtheclosureboundarytofishefficientlyandimpactsmay begreaterthanestimated. Conversely,somelobstersinthisregionseasonallymigrateintoshallowerwaterwherethey wouldbecomeavailabletothefishery,thoughtheportionofthepopulationthatundergoes thismigrationispoorlyunderstood.Inthiscase,theanalysiswouldoverestimatetheimpacts onrevenueastheresultsassumethatlobstersprotectedinoneareadonotbecomeavailable inotherareas.Itshouldalsobenotedthatfishermencommonlyfollowthisannualmigrationto adegree,fishinginshallowerwaterinthewarmerseasonsanddeeperwaterinthecolder seasons.Thus,closingdeeperportionsofthelobsterfishinghabitatinthisregionwouldhave seasonalimpactsonthedisplacementoffishingeffortthatarenotassessedinthisanalysis. Finally,theanalysisdoesnotexploretheimpactsofclosinghabitatdeeperthan500mas quantitativedataonlobsterfishingeffortbelowthisdeptharenotavailable.Whileresultsof thesurveyindicatethatasmalleramountofeffortandrevenueisallocatedtowatersdeeper than400m(onaverage4%oftrapsand3%ofrevenuefromwatersdeeperthan400m),this doesnotmeanthatfishingdoesnottakeplaceinthoseareas.Ofthe19respondentswhodid fishintheareaofinterest,42%reportedsettingtheirdeepesttrapsinwatergreaterthan 400m.
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Figure1.Bathymetrymap(rotated)ofsouthernGeorgesBankwithboundariesforbroadͲzone designationsmarkedinyellow(300m),green(400m),blue(500m)andblack(600m).Depths1,000mnotshown. 6
Figure2.Bathymetryin100mdepthbinswiththeDiscreteCanyonsscenarioandboundariesofthe NationalMonument.Depths1,000mnotshown. 7
Figure3.Higherresolutionmap(exampleforbathymetrydetail)oftheNationalMonumentareawith includedDiscreteCanyons.Depths1,000mnotshown.
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Table1.Depthdistributionsofeffortandrevenue,unweightedandweighted,andproportionofhabitat bydepthavailableintheregionorinterest. DepthBin 400m
Effort Revenue Proportion Unweighted Weighted Unweighted Weighted ofhabitat 17.3% 9.1% 23.0% 17.1% 78.8% 20.5% 22.2% 32.7% 28.7% 15.5% 35.5% 36.1% 23.4% 26.3% 2.7% 22.9% 26.5% 18.1% 23.1% 1.7% 3.7% 6.1% 2.7% 4.8% 1.4%
Table2.Proportionofeffortandrevenueimpactedbydifferentscenarios,notaccountingforthe NationalMonument.Revenuevalueisinmillionsannually. Metric
Weighting
Discrete Canyons
Effort
Unweighted Weighted
9.3% 11.1%
22.9% 27.8%
24.3% 29.3%
5.5% 7.5%
11.9% 14.9%
Revenue
Unweighted Weighted
7.0% 9.2%
17.5% 23.4%
18.6% 24.6%
4.1% 6.2%
9.0% 12.3%
Revenue Value
Unweighted Weighted
$1.4 $1.8
$3.4 $4.5
$3.6 $4.8
$0.8 $1.2
$1.7 $2.4
300m
300mplus DiscreteCanyons 400m
400mplus DiscreteCanyons
Table3.Proportionofeffortandrevenueimpactedbydifferentscenarios,includingtheNational Monument.Revenuevalueisinmillionsannually. Metric
Weighting
Monument
Discrete Canyons
300m
300mplus DiscreteCanyons
400m
400mplus DiscreteCanyons
Effort
Unweighted Weighted
13.0% 14.3%
19.1% 21.7%
32.1% 37.4%
33.0% 38.4%
17.3% 20.3%
21.6% 25.2%
Revenue
Unweighted Weighted
12.2% 14.3%
16.8% 19.3%
26.8% 32.6%
27.5% 33.4%
15.5% 18.1%
18.7% 22.1%
Revenue Value
Unweighted Weighted
$2.4 $2.8
$3.3 $3.7
$5.2 $6.3
$5.4 $6.5
$3.0 $3.5
$3.6 $4.3
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2. PotentialImpactstotheGulfofMaineLobsterFleetfromProposedCoralClosures TheNewEnglandFisheriesManagementCouncil(NEFMC)OmnibusDeepSeaCoral AmendmentisconsideringtwopotentialclosurestoprotectdeepseacoralsinLobster ManagementArea11.ThesetwoareasofsensitivebenthichabitataretheOuterSchoodic RidgeandMountDesertRockineasternMaine(Figure4).Animportantcomponentof evaluatingtheseareasforhabitatprotectionisunderstandingthepotentialeconomicimpactto coincidingfisheries.Thesetwodiscreteareasunderconsiderationarerecognizedasproductive fishinggroundsparticularlyfortheMainelobsterfleet.NEFMCstaffhaslookedatvesseltrip report(VTR)datatotryandcharacterizethelobsterfishingeffortandrevenueintheseareas; however,thisapproachlikelydoesnotaccuratelycharacterizetheMainelobsterfishery. FederalpermitholdersthatdesignatelobsterͲonlyarenotrequiredtoreportthroughVTRsin Maine.Becauseofthisexemption,only10%ofallMainefederalpermitholdersand3%ofthe totalMainelobsterfleetreportthroughVTRs.Thepermitsarenotuniformlydistributedas thereisaspatialdifferencebetweeneasternandwesternzones.Thefederalpermitsrequiring VTRslanded8%ofthe2015federalpermitlobsterlandingsintheeasternzones(A,B,andC) while13%ofthe2015federallandingswerebyVTRpermitsinthewesternzones(D,E,F,and G)(Figure4).ThislackofrepresentativecoveragerenderstheVTRlobsterdatasetinadequate toassesstheeconomicimpactofthepotentialcoralclosuresontheMainelobsterfleet.The analysispresentedhereusesMainelandingsdatatotrytocharacterizethepotentialrangeof economicimpactsshouldthetwoproposedareasbeclosed.Thefollowingfigureswere providedtotheNEFMCHabitatCommitteewithnotesbytheMaineDepartmentofMarine Resources,butnotasafullydevelopedreport.
Figure4.MaineFishingZonesAthroughG,easttowestwithproposedcoralclosures.Licenseholders declareazoneandmustfish51%oftheirgearintheirdeclaredzone. 1
http://www.nefmc.org/library/omnibusͲdeepͲseaͲcoralͲamendment
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AvailableDataandMethods ThetwoareasunderconsiderationareintheeasternpartoftheGulfofMainewithinfederal watersofLobsterConservationManagementArea1.TheMountDesertareaiswithinthe3Ͳ 12nmdistancefromshoreinMaineFishingZoneBwhiletheOuterSchoodicRidgeareaismore than12nmoffshoreinZoneA(Figure4).TheGISshapefilesinthemapsandareacalculations forpotentialclosureswereprovidedbytheNEFMC.Duetoknowledgeoftheareasand evidencefromMaineatͲseasamplingdata,itisknownthattheseareaswerehistorically,and arecurrently,fishedbylobsterfishermenfromadjacentzones.Asaresult,thisanalysis considersfisherydatafromZonesA,B,andC.AllfederalpermitholdersmustalsoholdaMaine statelicenseandcanfishineitherstateorfederalwatersbutarerequiredtofish,ata minimum,51%oftheirgearintheirdeclaredzone.VeryfewMainevessels(12nm).Thezonefishedwasreportedbythefishermenand wasassumedtobewherethegearwasset,notnecessarilythelicense’sdeclaredzone.These datawereavailableforfishingyears2008Ͳ2014,butwechosetousethemostrecentfour years.Inadditiontotheexpansionestimatesdescribedlater,monthlyaveragetripvalueand depthwerederivedfromthe2011Ͳ2014harvesterdata. 11
Forbothdealerandharvesterdata,themonetaryvalueofthecatchwascalculatedforeach tripusinganaveragepricepermonthperzoneforeachyear.Alldatawerecategorizedby permittypeasstateͲonly,federalwithVTR,andfederalwithoutVTR.Althoughweconsidered thetotalvalueofthefisheryinthethreezonesincludingallpermittypesforthethreezones, forfurtherexpansion,weonlyusedfederalpermits(withandwithoutVTR)fromboththe dealerandharvesterdatasetsbecauseonlyfederalpermitholderswouldbedirectlyimpacted bythepotentialclosures(stateͲonlypermitsdonothaveaccess). Throughoutreach,theMaineDMRandtheMaineLobstermen’sAssociation(MLA)gathered informationabouttheuseofthepotentialclosureareasfromindustry.Thiswasnota systematicsurvey,butratheratargetedconsultationwithrepresentativeindustrymembers whofishintheseareastodeterminehowmanyandwhichharborscouldbeimpacted,rough estimatesofnumbersofboats,andatwhattimeofyeartheseareasarefishedmostheavily. TheindustrymembersconsultedwerefishermenidentifiedbytheMaineDMRatͲseasampling program,MLAboardmembersandsomeindustrymembersrecommendedbytheoriginalDMR andMLAcontacts. Expansions Weusedthreemethodstoexpandtotalrevenueestimatesfromthemorespatiallyspecificbut limited(10%)harvesterdataintothetotalimpactedpopulation.Thefirstapproach(Expansion Method1)appliedtheaverageproportionsoffederalpermitholdersdeterminedbythe harvesterlogbookdatafor2011Ͳ2014tothedealerdata.Thisexpansion,usingtheproportions fromthe10%harvesterdata,assignedthetotalreportedvalue,landings,andtripsfromthe dealerdatabaseintodistancefromshorecategoriesforeachzone.Thisexpansionshowsthe spatialdistributionofthevariablesacrosszonesanddistancefromshore,butnotthespecific valueofthesmallercoralclosures. Thesecondmethod(ExpansionMethod2)estimatedarangeofrevenuederivedfromthecatch inspecificclosureareas.Weusedacombinationofindustryinformationonnumbersofboats withcombinedharvesterlogbookdataonaveragevaluepertripandnumberoftripsper licensebymonthanddistancefromshore.Someboatsreportedfishingintheseareasnearly allyear,butweconcentratedonthemonthsofhighesteffortdescribedbytheindustry interviews,NovemberthroughApril.RecognizingtheuncertaintyofindustryͲestimatedboat countsandthat,whileacertainnumberofboatscouldbefishinginanarea,theylikelydidnot fishalloftheirgearorearnalloftheirincomeintheareasunderconsideration,weapplieda rangeofpercentincomeandtwooptionsforboatcountsperarea.Thecombinedharvester datawereaveragedover2011Ͳ2014for>12nminZoneAand3Ͳ12nminZoneBtodetermine theaveragetripspermonthperlicenseandtheaveragevaluepertrip.Thevaluewastallied foranannualestimateforthetwoareasforeachboatcountandincomepercentagecategory. Thethirdmethod(ExpansionMethod3)assignedarevenuevaluebysquareareaandmadethe assumptionthateverysquaremileisequallyproductiveforfishing.Becauseoftheassumption (likelyinaccurate)ofequalproductivityandtheuncertaintyrelatedtotheabilityofvesselsto fishadjacentzones,wecombinedthedataforZonesA,B,andC.Toattributethevaluebyarea, 12
weusedaverageproportionsbydistancefromshorederivedfromcombinedharvesterdata (2011Ͳ2014).Itwasnecessarytoaveragetheproportionsoverfouryearsbecauseof confidentialityanduncertaintyduetotherelativelysmallsamplesize.Thesevalueproportions, categorizedbydistancefromshore,wereappliedtothetotalvalueandnumberofpounds landed,trips,fromthe2015dealerdatainthecombinedthreezones.Thetotalareaforeach zoneanddistancefromshorewerecalculatedinArcGIS.Thesquaremileageoftheproposed closureswas1.5%ofthetotalareaofthethreezonescombinedoutside3nm,sotheestimates fortheentirearea(ZonesAͲC)weremultipliedby1.5%toestimatethevaluewithinthe proposedclosures.
CharacterizationoftheMainefishery In2015,theMainelobsterfisherywasworthmorethan$500millionintotalexͲvesselvaluefor bothstateͲonlyandfederallypermittedvessels.Thecombinedtotalvalueforthethreeeastern zoneswasmorethan$296millionwithstateͲonlylicensesmakingupthelargestproportionof permits(Figure5).ZoneCrepresentedthegreatestvalueinlandingsoverall,withthehighest proportionfromstateͲonlypermitsofthethreezones.ZoneAhadthesecondhighestoverall landingsvalue,andZoneBhadthelowestoverallvalue.Whilealmost75%ofpermitswere stateͲonly(Table4),thefederalpermitswithoutVTRrequirementsproducedthehighest proportionofvalueinZonesAandB(Figure5).Inallthreezones,theVTRpermitsrepresented thesmallestproportionofvalueofthethreepermittypes.
2015TotalValueand PermitTypeBreakdown byZone
Figure5.TotalvaluefromMainedealerdataforZonesA,B,andCwiththeratioofvaluebypermittype forfederalwithandwithoutVTRrequirementsandstateͲonlypermits. 13
ThetotalnumberofpermitsforZonesA,BandCin2015was2,316with640ofthosepermits beingfederalpermits,withorwithoutVTRs(Table4).In2015,federalpermitsrequiredto submitVTRsharvested8%ofthelandingsforZonesA,B,andCwhileallfederalpermitslanded 57%ofthetotallandingsinthesamearea.Withinthethreeeasternzones,139,780tripswere completedbythelobsterfleetwith56,381tripsfromthefederallypermittedvessels(Table4). Table4.Maine100%tripͲleveldealerdatafor2015bypermittype.FederalincludesbothVTRandno VTRpermits. Permitnumbers Zone FederalNoVTR FederalwVTR StateOnly Total Federal %federal A 271 28 664 963 299 31% B 161 10 408 579 171 30% C 160 10 604 774 170 22%
Trips Zone A B C
FederalNoVTR 21,702 13,098 17,283
FederalwVTR 2,357 991 950
StateOnly 29,539 17,933 35,927
Total 53,598 32,022 54,160
Federal 24,059 14,089 18,233
%federal 45% 44% 34%
Value Zone A B C
FederalNoVTR 60,261,907 39,009,830 55,979,051
FederalwVTR 6,039,883 3,671,325 3,791,784
StateOnly 33,316,457 28,076,911 66,224,717
Total 99,618,247 70,758,066 125,995,552
Federal 66,301,790 42,681,155 59,770,835
%federal 67% 60% 47%
Landings Zone A B C
FederalNoVTR 15,054,051 9,327,846 13,631,809
FederalwVTR StateOnly Total Federal %federal 1,543,886 9,056,975 25,654,912 16,597,937 65% 874,674 6,740,661 16,943,181 10,202,520 60% 910,528 17,079,316 31,621,653 14,542,337 46%
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ThecombinationofharvesterandVTRdatadeterminedtheproportionsofvalue,numberof trips,andlandingsbyzoneanddistancefromshore.Withinagivenzone,theproportionof effort(trips)thattookplaceineachdistancecategorywasnotnecessarilyrepresentativeofthe resultinglandingsorvalue(Table5).Althoughtherewerefewertripsinthe>12nmregion,the relativeproportionofvaluewashigher(thanthetripproportion)inallzones,especiallyinZone A(Table5).Forpermitsandtrips,allzoneshadthehighestproportioninstatewaters,lessin3Ͳ 12nm,andthesmallestdistributionin>12nm.Forvalueandlandings,ZoneAwasdifferent fromtheothertwozoneswheretheregionbetween3Ͳ12nmhadthehighestproportionfor valueandlandingswhileZonesCandBhadthehighestinstatewaters. Table5.Proportionoftrips,value,andlandingsbydistancefromshore(nauticalmiles)offederal permitsaveragedover2011Ͳ2014fromthecombinedharvesterandVTRdatabyzone.
TRIPS ZoneA ZoneB ZoneC
0Ͳ3 53% 59% 66%
3Ͳ12 39% 31% 25%
>12 8% 10% 9%
0Ͳ3 38% 49% 60%
3Ͳ12 47% 36% 30%
>12 15% 14% 10%
0Ͳ3 40% 52% 63%
3Ͳ12 48% 36% 28%
>12 13% 13% 9%
VALUE ZoneA ZoneB ZoneC LANDINGS ZoneA ZoneB ZoneC
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Monthlycharacteristicsofdepthandvalue Thereportedvalueanddepthfromtheharvesterlogbookdatasetindicatedtrendsdepending onzone,month,anddistancefromshore.Thehighestmeanvaluewasfoundinlatefall (OctoberthroughDecember)inZoneAoutsideof12nm(Figure6).Therewashighervariability ofvalueinthelatefall,winterandspringmonthsindicatedbythelengthoftheviolinwands. Generallyallareashadagreatervaluepertripinthefallmonthswhenthecatchwashigher. Pricesaretypicallyhigherinthewinterandspringbutthecatchvolumeislower.Because therearefewerfederallypermittedvesselsandthestateͲonlyboatsdonothaveaccessto offshorefishinggrounds,thereisopportunitytocatchmorevolumeandvaluepertripoffshore inthefallmonths.
Figure6.Violinplotsofmonthlyvaluepertripbyzoneanddistancefromshoreforfederalpermits reportedbythecombinedVTRandharvesterdataoveryears2011Ͳ2014.Thebluedotsrepresentthe meanwhilethewidthandlengthoftheshaperepresentsthedistributionofthedata.
Generallythelobsterfleetfishesinshallowwaterduringthesummerfollowingthelobster movement(molting)andintodeepwatersforthewinter.Inthe3Ͳ12nmdistancefromshore, 16
theaveragedepthfishedwaslessthan100minallthreezones.Thegreatestaveragedepths fishedwereoutsideof12nminZonesA.Overall,greaterdepthswerereportedinwinterand springbuttherewashighvariabilityyearͲround(Figure7).Depthsreportedinharvester logbooksandVTRsaredifficulttoverifywithoutmoredetailedspatialdata,buttheaverage trendsfollowunderstoodpatternsofthefleetbehavior.Therangeofdepthintheproposed closuresisbetween100Ͳ250m.UsingthebathymetrymapdatafromtheNOAANCEIU.S. CoastalReliefModel2wecharacterizedthedepthsofthepotentialclosures(Figure8).While thefleetfishesshallowerdepthsonaverage,thedistributionsofdepthwithintheclosuresand thereporteddepthsbytheMainelobsterfleetoverlap,especiallyinthewinterandspring months(Figures7and8).
Figure7.Violinplotsofmonthlydepthspertripbyzoneanddistancefromshoreforfederalpermits reportedbythecombinedVTRandharvesterdataoveryears2011Ͳ2014.Thebluedotsrepresentthe meanwhilethewidthandlengthoftheshaperepresentsthedistribution.
datafromtheNOAANCEIU.S.CoastalReliefModel(Retrieved9/10/2013, http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/mgg/coastal/crm.html),whichhasaresolutionof3arcminutes. 2
17
Figure8.Depthdistributionoftheproposedclosuresbasedonthebathymetryshapefile2.
Spatiallyspecificindustrycontributionsonpotentialcoralclosure Interviewswithlobsterindustrymembersindicatedthatlobsterharvestingistheprimary economicdriverforbothWashingtonandHancockCounties,thecountiesadjacenttothe closures.Theproposedclosedareashaverecentlybecomeparticularlyimportantfishing groundsforvesselsoriginatingfromthesecountiesduringthelatefall,winter,andspring. IndustrymembersreportedthatbothareasarefishedyearͲroundbyasmallernumberof fishermen.Roughly35Ͳ50boatsfrombothZonesBandCfishtheMountDesertRockArea whichhasbecomeanincreasinglyvaluablefishinggroundoverthepastdecade.TheOuter SchoodicRidgeAreaisfishedbyatleast50boatsfrombothZonesBandAandishistoricallyan importantfishingarea.Combined,thetwoareasarecurrentlyfishedbyboatsfromatleast15 differentharborsinthetwocountiesacrossthethreezones.Mostoftheseboatsemploytwo crewmembersinadditiontothecaptain.Areasaroundthebordersofthesepotentialclosures arealsoheavilyfishedsodisplacementofeffortwouldlikelycauseconflict.
18
ExpansionResults ExpansionMethod1:Proportionsbydistancefromshore DataderivedfromTables4and5wereusedtoapportiontrips,value,andlandingstodistance fromshorecategorieswithineachzone(Figures9,10&11).Theproportionsderivedfromthe 2011Ͳ2014combinedharvesterandVTRdatawereusedtoallocatethetotalsfromthedealer dataintodifferentspatialareas.FortheMountDesertRockarea,thevalue,landingsandtrips forZoneBbetween3and12nmwasestimatedtobe$15.3millionand3.6millionpoundsfrom morethan4,300trips.Theareaoutsideof12nminZoneA,surroundingtheOuterSchoodic Ridgeclosure,thenumberswere$9.8millionand2.1millionpoundsfromabout1,900trips. Someuncertaintywasintroducedusingthismethodofcombiningtwodatastreamsbecause fishermenreportthezonefishedintheharvesterreportandVTR,whilethetotalfleetvalue, pounds,andtripscollectedbythedealerswereattributedtotheportandzonewherethe harvestwassold.Withthisinmind,someofthe3Ͳ12nmregiondataforZoneCdealer reportedvaluecouldbeattributedtoZoneBandsomeofthegreaterthan12nmdatafrom ZoneBcouldbeattributedtoZoneA.
2015FederalPermitValue by distancefromshoreandzone
Figure9.Valuefrom2015Mainedealerdatabydistancefromshore(nm)ineachzone.Valueallocation wasbasedontheaverageproportionsfrom2011Ͳ2014fromthecombinationofharvesterreportsand selectedVTRs.Onlyfederalpermitdatawereincluded.
19
2015FederalPermitLandings(lb) bydistancefromshoreandzone
Figure10.Landingsfrom2015Mainedealerdatabydistancefromshore(nm)ineachzone.Landings wereallocatedbasedontheaverageproportionsfrom2011Ͳ2014fromthecombinationofharvester reportsandselectedVTRs.Onlyfederalpermitdatawereincluded.
20
2015FederalPermitTrips by distancefromshoreandzone
Figure11.Tripfrom2015Mainedealerdatabydistancefromshore(nm)ineachzone.Tripallocation wasbasedontheaverageproportionsfrom2011Ͳ2014fromthecombinationofharvesterreportsand selectedVTRs.Onlyfederalpermitdatawereincluded.
ExpansionMethod2:Averagevalueoftripandnumberofboats Thesecondmethodforestimatingtherevenuesassociatedwithspecificclosureareasuseda combinationofindustryinputandaveragetripvaluesfromtheharvesterdata.Interviews indicatedeachareasupportedamaximumof50boatsinthelatefall,winter,andearlyspring (MLA/DMRInterviews).WelimitedtheanalysistothemonthsofNovemberthroughApril, understandingthatsomeeffortdoesoccuryearͲround.Toaccountforuncertaintyinthe numbersofboatsovertime,weconductedtheanalysisfortwolevelsoffishingeffort:50and 25boatsperarea.Additionaluncertaintywasrecognizedbecausetheproportionofincome andgearperlicenseforthespecificclosureareaswasunknown.Assumingthattheboatswere unlikelytoderive100%oftheirincomefromthesediscretecoralprotectionareas,weused 100%asamaximum,50%asthemoderatelevel,and25%astheminimum. Expansionoftheseindustrynumberswasbasedonaveragevaluepertripandaveragetripsper monthperlicenseestimatedfromthe2011Ͳ2014harvesterlogbookandselectedVTRdataset forthetworegionscontainingtheproposedclosures(Table6).Thevaluerangedfroma maximum$6,610pertripinZoneA,>12nminNovembertoaminimum$1,129inZoneB,3Ͳ 12nminApril.Ingeneral,theaveragenumberoftripsforeachpermitwashighestinthefall 21
andlowestinJanuarythroughMarch.Therevenuesweresummedoverbothareasandthe numberofboatswasheldconstantoverallincludedmonths.Theestimatedrevenuesranged fromamaximumof$8.5milliontoaminimumofaround$1millionfrom50boats,100% incomeand25boats25%income,respectively(Table7). Table6.Averagevaluepertripandnumberoftripsperpermitpermonthfromthecombinedharvester reportandVTRdataset2011Ͳ2014forthetwospecificregionsofthepotentialclosures.
AverageVALUEpertrip(fromcombinedharvester/selectedVTR) Jan Feb Mar Apr $3,260 $3,719 $3,446 $2,632 ZoneA>12 ZoneB3Ͳ12mi $1,822 $1,286 $1,294 $1,129 Average#oftripsperpermit(fromcombinedharvester/selectedVTR) Jan Feb Mar Apr 3 3 3 4 ZoneA>12 ZoneB3Ͳ12 3 3 3 5
Nov $6,610 $3,264
Dec $4,378 $2,151
Nov 9 7
Dec 5 4
Table7.Expandedrevenueestimatesusingvaluepertripandnumberoftripspermonthwitharangeof boatnumbersandpercentincomederivedfromtheclosureareas. 100%income 50%income 25%income 25boatsperarea $4,250,650 $2,125,325 $1,062,663 50boatsperarea $8,501,300 $4,250,650 $2,125,325
ExpansionMethod3:PercentofArea HighuncertaintywasassociatedwiththeExpansionMethod3becauseoftheassumptionthat everysquaremileofoceanhabitatwasequallyproductivelobsterbottom;however,this approachdidaccountfortheerrorassociatedwithboatsfishinginadjacentzonesand reportingintheirhomeportbycombiningthethreezones.Averageproportionsofvalue,trips, andlandingsbydistancefromshorederivedfromtheharvesterreportandVTRdatasetwere calculatedfromthecombineddataforZonesA,B,andCfor2011Ͳ2014(Table8).Thedealer dataprovidedthetotalvalue,trips,andlandingsforthecombinedthreezones(Table9).The harvesterlogbookproportionswereappliedtothedealerdataannuallyfrom2011through 2015toestimatethetrips,landings,andvalueforeachdistancefromshorecategoryforthe wholearea.Wefocusedonthetotalestimatesforoutsideof3nm(Table10).Usingthe1.5% areacalculationoftheproposedclosures,theestimatedrevenuewas$1.2millionfrom349 tripsand~300,000poundslandedin2015(Table10). Table8.Proportionofvalue,trips,andlandingsbydistancefromshore(nm)fromthethreezones combinedbasedonharvesterandVTRdatafrom2011Ͳ2014.Federalpermitsonly.
0Ͳ3 Zones 3Ͳ12 ABC >12
Value 49% 38% 13%
Trips 59% 33% 9%
Landings 51% 37% 11% 22
Table9.Annualtotalvalue,trips,andlandingsfromthethreezonescombinedfromthedealerdata 2011Ͳ2015.Federalpermitsonly.
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Value $98,088,305 $107,877,076 $127,118,351 $162,049,914 $168,753,780
Trips 53,384 56,606 58,273 56,483 56,381
Landings 31,089,672 40,374,885 44,492,387 44,116,485 41,342,794
Table10.Expandedestimatesfortrips,landingsandvalueforallthreezonesoutsideof3nmandforthe proposedcoralclosures(1.5%ofthetotalareaoutsideof3nm).
Zone
Year
Est.trips Est. Expanded Expanded Expanded Est.valuein incoral landingsin tripsin>3 landingsin>3 valuein>3 coralareas areas coralareas
A,B,&C A,B,&C A,B,&C A,B,&C A,B,&C
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
22,015 23,344 24,031 23,293 23,251
330 350 360 349 349
15,100,568 19,610,490 21,610,403 21,427,824 20,080,614
226,509 294,157 324,156 321,417 301,209
$49,459,548 $54,395,388 $64,097,511 $81,711,225 $85,091,548
$741,893 $815,931 $961,463 $1,225,668 $1,276,373
Discussion Thefirststepintheexpansionprocessthatdeterminedthedistributionofrevenuevalue, landings,andtripsamongthethreeimpactedzonesbydistancefromshoreillustratesthehigh valueandlevelofeffortintheeasternMainelobsterfishery(ExpansionMethod1).Federal permitholdersfishinbothstateandfederalwaters.Thestatewaterswerethemostvaluable withthehighestlandings,buttheareasoutsideof3nmwheretheproposedclosuresare locatedwerealsoimportantsourcesofvalueandsignificantlevelsofeffort. Thetwoexpansionmethods(ExpansionMethods2and3)tocalculatethefisheryrevenuesand potentialdirectimpactoftheproposedcoralclosureareaslikelyprovideaminimumand maximumrangethatshouldencompassthetruevalue.TheTechnicalCommitteewaswaryof tryingtodeterminerevenueatafinerspatialscalethanthescaleatwhichthedatawere collected.Weconsideredthebestestimateoftherevenuevaluepotentiallylostfromthese closurestobetheExpansionMethod2combiningindustryinterviewsestimatingboatsand monthsfishedwiththeharvesterlogbooksreportingaveragenumberoftripsandvalueby month.Providingtherangeofestimatesbasedonthemaximumandminimumnumberboats fishingandpercentincomeassociatedwiththeclosureswasintendedtoaccountforthe uncertaintyinthosedatasources.Takingthefullindustryestimateof50boatsineachareafor thefallandwintertimeperiodandassuming100%incomeslikelyproducedanoverestimateof revenue.GiventhatthecombinedareaͲbasedestimate(forZoneA>12andZoneB3Ͳ12)was $25million(seeFigure8),the$8millionrevenueestimatefromthesetwodiscreteareaswas likelytoohigh.Findingmiddlegroundandrelyingontheinputfromfishermen,the$4.2million 23
revenueestimatefor50boatsineachareaand50%incomefortheincludedmonthsseems likelytobethemostrealisticscenariotoestimatetheeconomicimpactoftheseproposed closures(Figure12).Thereareunresolvedissuesconcerninguncertaintyintherelationship betweentheamountsofgearfished,value,andmonthsfished.Therewassubstantial variabilityinthedataforvaluepertrip(asreportedthroughlogbooksandVTRs),thusestimates ofvaluecouldbemisͲcharacterized.Additionally,ifhalfthegearfor50boatswassetinthese areasatonetime,thetrapdensitycouldbeupto500Ͳ1,000trapspersquaremile,which seemsunrealisticallyhigh. ExpansionMethod3,basedoncalculatedareaassumedequalproductivityofeachsquaremile outsideofstatewatersinthethreezones,likelyresultedinanunderestimateofrevenue.Itis unlikelythattheentirehabitatwithinZonesA,B,andCisequallyproductivelobsterbottom, especiallywhenboatsarefishingfurtherfromshore.Attemptingtoestimatetherevenuevalue forasmallsubsetofthetotalareaintroducedhighuncertaintyanderrorsinceneitherthe10% harvesterdatanorthe100%dealerdatawascollectedatafinerspatialscalethandistance fromshoreand/orzone.ThescaleofthefisheryineasternMaineandthestatedimportance ofthesediscreteareasatcertaintimesoftheyearmaketheannualestimateoflessthan$1.5 million(Table10)seemveryunlikely.Fishermeninterviewsindicatedthattheproposedcoral areascouldbetwotofourtimesasproductiveasotherbottomhabitatsothe$1.5million estimatecouldscaleupclosertothe$4.2millionestimate.
*
Figure12.ComparisonofrevenueestimatesbasedonExpansionMethods2and3.ExpansionMethod2 wasbasedontheaveragevalueoftripandnumberofboatswithsplitpercentincomewhileExpansion Method3calculatedthepercentvalueofthetotalarea.The*denotesthescenariodeterminedtobest estimaterevenues.
24
RecentobservationsofcoralsfromROVsurveysweretypicallyfoundatdepthsgreaterthan 180m3.TheMainelogbookdataindicatessomeMainelobsterboatsfishatorgreaterthan 180m,but,evenduringthewinter,thefleetdoesnotfishatthosedepthsonaverage.While theaveragedepthfishedbytheMainelobsterfleetwaslessthandepthsoflikelyhighcoral abundance,thedepthdistributionwithintheclosuresdoesoverlapwiththefleet’sfishing activityastheclosuresextendtoshallowerdepths(seeFigures7and8). Anothersourceofuncertaintyregardingtheinteractionbetweenthelobsterindustryanddeep seacoralswasidentifiedbytheindustryinterviewsandcouldnotbequantified.TheNEFMC OmnibusAmendmentdeterminedthathardcoralsweremostlikelytobefoundinthesteepest gradientsofdepthonhardbottomhabitatforming“walls”.Thelobsterfisheryisrequiredto usesinkinggroundlinestopreventlargewhaleentanglements,andthislinemaychafewhen gearisfishednearcoralsorthejaggededgesofcoralhabitat,resultinginlossofgear.Because ofthis,mostfishermenreportedtryingtoavoidcoralstopreventthelossoffishinggear.
WhaleCoͲOccurrence Anadditionalconcernthatneedstobeaddressedrelatestothedisplacementofeffortoutof closedareas,andtheresultinginteractionswithexistingregulations.NOAAFisheries,in consultationwiththeAtlanticLargeWhaleTakeReductionTeam,developedacoͲoccurrence modelofendangeredrightwhalesandfixedgearfishingeffortfortheFinalRuleoftheAtlantic LargeWhaleTakeReductionPlanin20144.Thelobsterindustrycomprisesthemajorityoffixed gearwithverticallinesinthisregionandisrepresentedinthemodelusingavarietyofdata sources,includingStateofMainedealerandharvesterreports,VTR,andfishingpractices surveyscompletedbyDMRin2010.Themodelexploredtheoverlapofrightwhalesandgear intheformofwhalesightingsanddensitiesofverticallinesinspaceandtimeexpressedasa coͲoccurrencescoreintenminutegridcells.Thescoreshavenounitotherthantherelative amountofoverlapbetweensightingsandverticallines.Thiscanbedrivenbyhighnumbersof whalesightings,highdensitiesofverticallines,ortheoccurrenceofboth.AplotofcoͲ occurrencescoreswiththepotentialcoralclosureareaswascreatedtoshowanypotential conflicts(Figure13).TheproposedOuterSchoodicRidgecoralclosureoverlappedwitha relativelyhighcoͲoccurrencescore(100Ͳ1,000),whereastheotherproposedareanearMount DesertRockdidnotdirectlycoincidewithbutislocatedadjacenttoareasofhighcoͲ occurrence. SpatialclosuresinMainehavebeenavoidedintheAtlanticLargeWhaleTakeReductionPlan, dueinparttoconcernsaboutthedisplacementofeffortandthepotentialtoincreasethe densityofverticallinesalongtheedgesofaclosure.Asimilarscenarioexistshererelativeto theproposedcoralclosures,withdisplacementofgearcreatingahigherriskofentanglementin theareassurroundingtheclosure.Forthisreason,thereisgreaterconcernregarding
Personalcommunication.M.Bachman,NEFMC1/24/2017 FinalEnvironmentalImpactStatementforAmendingtheAtlanticLargeWhaleTakeReductionPlan:VerticalLine Rule.May2014.
3 4
25
unintendedimpactstowhalesintheOuterSchoodicRidgeareawherewhalesareknownto frequent,whiletheimpactnearMountDesertRockislesscertain.
Outer Schoodic Ridge Mount DesertRock
Figure13.TheannualaveragecoͲoccurrencescoreintenminutegridcellsshownwithproposedcoral closureareas.RightwhalesightingsusedtocalculatethecoͲoccurrencescoreincludeaerialand shipboardstandardizedsurveysfrom1978Ͳ2011summarizedintheNorthAtlanticRightWhale ConsortiumDatabaseandtheNavyMarineResourceAssessmentDatabase.Verticallinedensitiesused tocalculatethecoͲoccurrencescoresincludeVTR,StateofMainedealerandharvesterdata,and voluntarygearconfigurationsurveysdonebyDMRin2010.
LiteratureCited: Whitmore,K.,Morrissey,E.,Ware,M.,andGlenn,R.2016.Characterizationoftheoffshore AmericanlobsterandJonahcraptrapfisheryinLobsterConservationManagementArea3in andaroundtheSouthernNewEnglandandGeorgesBankcanyons.PreparedfortheAtlantic StatesMarineFisheriesCommission.UpdatedJuly5,2016;17pp 26
1050 N. Highland Street • Suite 200A-N • Arlington, VA 22201 703.842.0740 • 703.842.0741 (fax) • www.asmfc.org
MEMORANDUM
TO: AmericanLobsterManagementBoard FROM: AmericanLobsterTechnicalCommittee DATE: January25,2017 SUBJECT: AnalysisonPotentialFisheryImpactsasaResultoftheNEFMCCoralAmendment TheNewEnglandFishermenManagementCounciliscurrentlyworkingonanOmnibusDeep SeaCoralAmendmentwhichlookstoprotectdeepseacoralhabitatinthenorthwestAtlantic Ocean.ThisAmendmentmayimpactthelobsterandJonahcrabfisheriesascurrently,thereare proposedclosuresintheGulfofMaineandGeorgesBank.Inanefforttoestimatepotential impactstothelobsterandJonahcrabfisheries,theTechnicalCommittee(TC)conductedtwo analyses,onewhichestimatesimpactstotheoffshorefleetwhichfishesinandaroundthe canyons,andanotherwhichestimatesimpactstotheMainelobsterfleetwhichfishesaround MountDesertRockandOuterSchoodicRidge.Theintentoftheseanalysesistwofold.Thefirst objectiveistoprovideanestimateofthepotentialimpactstothelobsterandJonahcrab fisherieswhichdoesnotrelyondatasolelyfromVesselTripReports.Thesecondobjectiveisto provideanothermethodofanalysiswhichcanbecomparedtotheimpactanalysiscurrently beingconductedbytheNewEnglandFisheryScienceCenter. Thisreportiscomprisedoftwoparts.Thefirstpartestimatesimpactstotheoffshorelobster andJonahcrabfleetbyusingdatafromASMFC’srecentmailͲinsurveyaswellasbathymetry datafromNOAA.Itlooksattheimpactofvariousscenarios,includingdiscretecanyonzones, broaddepthzones,andthenationalmonument.Thesecondpartestimatesimpactstothe MainelobsterfleetwhichfishesaroundMountDesertRockandOuterSchoodicRidge.This analysisusesthreedifferentmethodstoestimateimpactstolandingsandrevenue,and considerspotentialimplicationsofdeepͲseacoralclosuresonwhales. 1. AlternativeAnalysisofLobsterFishingActivityinDeepͲSeaCoralZonesOffGeorgesBank. TheNewEnglandFisheriesManagementCouncilisconsideringdifferentscenariosfor protectingpotentiallysensitivebenthichabitatsalongtheshelfedgeofSouthernNewEngland andthesouthsideofGeorgesBank.Specifically,theCouncilisinterestedinunderstandinghow differentclosurescenarioswouldimpactfisheriesinthisregion.Oneanalysishasbeen conductedbyNEFSCstaff,basedprimarilyonrevenueandcoordinatesfromvesseltripreports (VTRs).Thisfirstapproachrecognizesandattemptstomodeltheuncertaintyofthereported VTRcoordinatesbydistributingthereportedlandingstoaneighborhoodaroundthereported coordinates,thenestimatingimpactsofdifferentspatialclosures.TheTC’sanalysisexaminesan alternatemethodforassigningvaluetodifferenthabitatsandexploringtheimpactsofdifferent scenarios.ThemethodisappliedspecificallytotheoffshoreAmericanlobsterandJonahcrab
Vision: Sustainably Managing Atlantic Coastal Fisheries
industry,oneofthefleetsexpectedtobemostaffectedbysuchclosures,andislargely independentoftheVTRdata.Theprimarypurposeforthisalternateanalysisistovalidatethe estimatesfromNEFSCbasedonVTRcoordinates.However,comparisonstothisanalysisarenot includedinthisdocumentbecausetheNEFSCreportisnotyetfinalized. Methods Theregionofinterestwasdefined,basedonprovidedshapefilesfordifferentscenarios,to includeNMFSstatisticalareas525,526,541,542,543,562,andareas534and537eastofͲ 70.55longitude. Avalueforeachportionofhabitatintheproposedclosureregionwasestimatedbycombining resultsfromarecentmailͲinsurveyofLMA3Fishermen(Whitmoreetal.2016)witharegional bathymetrymap.Inthesurvey,fishermenprovidedtheestimatedproportionoftheireffort andrevenueacrossdepthintervalsof400m. FishermenalsoprovidedtheirgrosslobsterandJonahcrabrevenuefor2014and2015fromthe regionofinterest.ThoughallfishermenwithArea3lobsterlicenseswerecontactedforthe survey,lessthanhalfrespondedandnotallresponsesincludedallrelevantinformationforthis analysis.Thus,itwasnecessarytoassumethattheresponsesthatincludedthenecessary informationarerepresentativeofthefishingfleetinthisregion(35%ofArea3fishermen respondedtothesurvey).Percenteffortandrevenuewereaveragedacrossapplicable fishermentogetmeanunweightedestimatesofeffortandrevenueforeachdepthinterval.To accountfordifferencesincatchandrevenueamongreportingvessels,thevesselreported depthdistributionsofeffortandrevenuewereweightedbythemeanreportedrevenuefor lobstersandJonahcrabsacross2014Ͳ2015togetaweighteddistributionofeffortandrevenue acrossdepth. Toattributethiseffortandrevenuetobottomhabitat,bathymetrydatafromtheNOAANCEI U.S.CoastalReliefModelwasused(Retrieved9/10/2013, http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/mgg/coastal/crm.html),whichhasaresolutionof3arcminutes. Thespatialextentoftherasterwastrimmedtotheareaofinterestwithdepthsoflessthan 500masfishermen’sresponsesindicatethatthereisminimalfishingoccurringbelow500m. Potentialcaveatsofthisassumptionareaddressedinthediscussion.Eachpixelwasthen assignedtoadepthcategoryconsistentwiththedepthintervalsthatwereusedinthe fishermensurveyanddistributedthereportedmeaneffortforeachdepthintervalevenly acrossallpixelsintherespectivedepthinterval.Thisisacriticaloversimplificationandpotential sourceofbiasinthisanalysisasitassumesthatallpixelswithinadepthintervalareequally productiveforlobsterandJonahcrabfishing(i.e.habitatalongsubmarinecanyonshavethe sameproductivityashabitatatasimilardepthalongtheshelfedgebetweencanyons). Impactsofaclosurescenariooneffortorrevenuewerecalculatedbyoverlayingtheclosed areasonthebathymetrymapandsummingtheeffortorrevenuevalue(unweightedor weighted)ofallpixelsfallinginsidetheclosurescenario.Oftheproposedscenarios,evaluated closuresincludeddepthsgreaterthan300mor400m,(hereafter300m+and400m+ respectively)theclosureofDiscreteCanyons(hereafterDC),andthecombinationsofthedepth 2
basedandDiscreteCanyonsscenarios(Figures1Ͳ3).Therearealsoscenariosproposedfor depthsgreaterthan500mor600mbuttherewasnotenougheffortdataforthesescenariosin thisanalysis.Becauseanationalmonumenthasbeenlegislatedforhabitatwithinthisregion, theimpactsofthenationalmonumentwerealsoevaluatedaswellasthefiveabovescenarios plusthenationalmonumenttogetthetotalimpactsofclosures,existingandproposed. Actuallossofrevenueforeachoftheabovescenarioswasestimatedbyapplyingpercentageof lostrevenuetothetotalrevenuefromtheregion.Thoughestimatedrevenuewasreportedin thesurvey,thesurveyresponsesrepresentanunknownportionofthetotalvesselsoperatingin theregions,soitwasnecessarytouseVTRstoestimatetotalrevenueforallvesselsinthe region.WhilevesselsfishinginfederalwatersonlyforlobstersarenotrequiredtofileVTRs, 95%ofresponsestotheWhitmoreetalsurveyreportedfilingVTRs,soitmaybeassumedthat themajorityofcatchfromthisregionisrecordedinVTRsandaccountedforinouranalysis.To examinefisheryrevenueforthisareaoverthelastdecade,datawasextractedforallVTRsfrom 2006–2015thatreportedfishinglobsterpots.Precisespatialdatawasnotnecessaryformost casesastheanalysismostlyincludesthespatialextentofentirestatisticalareas.NotallVTRs hadassignedstatisticalareasbutexaminationoftheVTRlandingsbyyearsuggestedthat >99.9%ofVTRlandingsincludedareportedstatisticalareasifthedatawereconstrainedto 2011–2015.Statisticalareas534and537areonlypartiallyincludedintheproposedclosure areas,requiringmoreprecisespatialdatafortheseareas.Thus,thesestatareasweresplitat 70.55oWlongitude(westernextentofclosurescenarios)and,usingtheVTRsthathadreported coordinates,calculatedthepercentageoflandingsbyyeareastofthisboundary,relativeto landingsfortheentirestatisticalareasandthenappliedthesepercentagestotheremaining VTRsthatlackedcoordinatestocalculatethetotallandingsforthesestatisticalareaseastofthe boundary. Revenuewasthensummedacrossstatisticalareaswithinyearandexaminedlandingstrends for2011–2015.Regionalrevenueincreasedacrosstheseyearsbutwassimilarfor2014and 2015,sotheaverageofthetwoyearswereusedtoprojectrevenueloss. Results OfthevesselsthatrepliedtothemailͲinsurvey,15reportedfishingintheregionofinterest andsuppliedeffortandrevenuepercentagesbydepth.12ofthese15alsoreportedtotal revenuefortheregionsoonlythese12wereusedforcalculatingweighteddepthͲdistributions ofeffortandrevenue. Basedonthesurveyresults,the200–300mdepthzonehasthehighestfishingeffortbutthe 100–200mdepthzonehasmarginallyhigherrevenuevalue(Table1).Atotalof26.6%and 32.6%ofeffort(unweightedandweighted)isin300mdepthsorgreaterand3.7%and6.1%of effort(unweightedandweighted)isingreaterthan400m.Similarly,atotalof20.9%and27.9% oflobsterandJonahcrabrevenue(unweightedandweighted)isreportedfromdepthsgreater than300mand2.7%and4.8%oflobsterandJonahcrabrevenue(unweightedandweighted) comesfromdepthsgreaterthan400m.Most(78.8%)ofthehabitatwithinthestatisticalareas thatencompasstheregionofinterestisinlessthan100mdepthswithonly3.1%ofthehabitat 3
indeeperthan300metersand1.4%ofthehabitatdeeperthan400m(recallthathabitat deeperthan500misnotincludedaspotentiallobsterhabitatforthepurposeofthisanalysis). Itisnoteworthythatthe300Ͳ400mdepthintervalrepresentsamoderateamountofeffort (22.9%and26.5%)andrevenue(18.1%and23.1%)butalsorepresentsaverysmallportionof thehabitat.Thissuggeststhatthisdepthincrementmayhavethehighestdensityoffishing activity(i.e.highesteffortͲtoͲhabitatareaorrevenueͲtoͲhabitatarearatios),followedbythe 200–300mdepthincrement. ForscenarioswheretheexistingNationalMonumentwerenotincluded,theweighted estimateswereconsistentlyhigherthantheunweightedestimates,suggestingthatvesselsthat reportedhigherrevenuesweregenerallyfishingdeeperthanvesselsthatreportedlower revenues(Table2).Ingeneral,theareawithintheDiscreteCanyonsscenarioaccountsfor about10%oftheeffortand8%oftherevenue,representing$1.4–1.8millioninannuallobster andJonahcrabrevenue.The300m+scenarioencompasses23–28%oftheeffort,and17– 23%oftherevenue,representing$3.4–$4.5millioninannuallobsterandJonahcrabrevenue. Thecombined300m+andDCscenarioareonlyslightlyhigherthanthe300m+scenarioasthe DCscenarioincludesverylittlehabitatthatisnotalreadyaccountedforinthe300m+scenario. The400m+scenarioencompasses5.5Ͳ7.5%oftheeffortand4.1Ͳ6.2%oftherevenue, accountingfor$0.8Ͳ$1.2millioninannuallobsterandJonahcrabrevenue.Becauseaddingthe DCscenariotothe400m+scenarioaddsasignificantamountofshallowerhabitat,the combinedscenariohasconsiderablyhigherimpacts,encompassing11.9Ͳ14.6%oftheeffortand 9Ͳ12.3%oftherevenue,representing$1.7–2.4millioninannuallobsterandJonahcrab revenue. ThenewlyͲdesignatednationalmonumentitselfisestimatedtoaccountfor13Ͳ14.3%ofthe regionaleffortand12.2–14.3%oftherevenue,representing$2.4–2.8millioninannual lobsterandJonahcrabrevenue(Table3).Becausethenationalmonumentincludes considerableamountsofproductivehabitatshallowerthan300m,combiningthenational monumentwiththedifferentscenariosincreasestheexpectedimpactsforallscenarios, increasingeffortandrevenueimpactsbyaboutanadditional10%.The300m+withDCandthe monumentcombinedscenariowouldhavethehighestimpact,encompassing33Ͳ38.4%of regionaleffortand27.5–33.4%ofrevenue,accountingforabout$5.4–6.5millioninannual lobsterandJonahcrabrevenue. Discussion Therangeinvaluespresentedforeachscenarioaboverepresentsthedifferencebetween unweightedandweightedestimatesanddonotrepresenttheuncertaintyintheestimates.The depthdistributionsofeffortandrevenuedatacomefromselfͲreportedmailͲinsurveysfroma limitednumberoffishermenthatmaynotaccuratelyrepresentallthevesselsinthesurvey area.Thus,giventhesmallsamplesize,itisdifficulttoknowhowaccuratetheassumeddepth distributionsofeffortandrevenueare.Theanalysisisalsobasedondatafromtherecentyears andnotnecessarilypredictiveofthefuture.Fromconversationswithindustry,manyofthe vesselsworkingthisregionhavebeenfishingthesamegeneralareaformanyyears.However, givenlargeͲscaleshiftsinlobsterdistributionstothesouthandwestandtheincreasing pressureonJohancrabs,thisregionmaybecomemoreimportanttotheoffshorefishery. 4
Closureswillalsoimpactvesselsunequally.Asmentionedintheresults,theweightedestimates ofeffortandrevenueimpactsareconsistentlyhigherthanunweightedestimatesacrossthe scenarios.Thissuggeststhatvesselsreportinghigherlandingsinthisregiontendtofishdeeper andwouldbemoreimpactedbyclosures.Ofthe14surveyrespondentsthatprovidedadepth distributionoftheirfishingeffort,threereportednoeffortbelow300mandfivereported50% ormoreoftheireffortbelow300m. Itissimilarlydifficulttopredictthedirectionalityofbiasinthisanalysis.Thetotalrevenue impactsarepartiallyderivedfromVesselTripReportsandassumethat100%ofvesselsfishing thisareaaresubmittingVTR’s.Thus,anylevelofreportingbelow100%wouldnecessarilybias thetotalrevenueestimateslowerthanactual. Thenecessaryassumptionthatallhabitatisequallyproductiveisalmostcertainlyincorrect,as deephabitatalongcanyonsisprobablymorestructurallycomplexandproductivethansuch habitatalongtheshelfedge,whichwouldalsobiastheDiscreteCanyons,aswellasthe400m+ andDC,scenarioslow.Lobstervesselshavetodistributetheirfishinggearacrossafairamount ofspacetofisheffectively.Thus,itisalsopossiblethat,withtheclosureofdeeperhabitats, theremaybeinsufficienthabitatalongtheclosureboundarytofishefficientlyandimpactsmay begreaterthanestimated. Conversely,somelobstersinthisregionseasonallymigrateintoshallowerwaterwherethey wouldbecomeavailabletothefishery,thoughtheportionofthepopulationthatundergoes thismigrationispoorlyunderstood.Inthiscase,theanalysiswouldoverestimatetheimpacts onrevenueastheresultsassumethatlobstersprotectedinoneareadonotbecomeavailable inotherareas.Itshouldalsobenotedthatfishermencommonlyfollowthisannualmigrationto adegree,fishinginshallowerwaterinthewarmerseasonsanddeeperwaterinthecolder seasons.Thus,closingdeeperportionsofthelobsterfishinghabitatinthisregionwouldhave seasonalimpactsonthedisplacementoffishingeffortthatarenotassessedinthisanalysis. Finally,theanalysisdoesnotexploretheimpactsofclosinghabitatdeeperthan500mas quantitativedataonlobsterfishingeffortbelowthisdeptharenotavailable.Whileresultsof thesurveyindicatethatasmalleramountofeffortandrevenueisallocatedtowatersdeeper than400m(onaverage4%oftrapsand3%ofrevenuefromwatersdeeperthan400m),this doesnotmeanthatfishingdoesnottakeplaceinthoseareas.Ofthe19respondentswhodid fishintheareaofinterest,42%reportedsettingtheirdeepesttrapsinwatergreaterthan 400m.
5
Figure1.Bathymetrymap(rotated)ofsouthernGeorgesBankwithboundariesforbroadͲzone designationsmarkedinyellow(300m),green(400m),blue(500m)andblack(600m).Depths1,000mnotshown. 6
Figure2.Bathymetryin100mdepthbinswiththeDiscreteCanyonsscenarioandboundariesofthe NationalMonument.Depths1,000mnotshown. 7
Figure3.Higherresolutionmap(exampleforbathymetrydetail)oftheNationalMonumentareawith includedDiscreteCanyons.Depths1,000mnotshown.
8
Table1.Depthdistributionsofeffortandrevenue,unweightedandweighted,andproportionofhabitat bydepthavailableintheregionorinterest. DepthBin 400m
Effort Revenue Proportion Unweighted Weighted Unweighted Weighted ofhabitat 17.3% 9.1% 23.0% 17.1% 78.8% 20.5% 22.2% 32.7% 28.7% 15.5% 35.5% 36.1% 23.4% 26.3% 2.7% 22.9% 26.5% 18.1% 23.1% 1.7% 3.7% 6.1% 2.7% 4.8% 1.4%
Table2.Proportionofeffortandrevenueimpactedbydifferentscenarios,notaccountingforthe NationalMonument.Revenuevalueisinmillionsannually. Metric
Weighting
Discrete Canyons
Effort
Unweighted Weighted
9.3% 11.1%
22.9% 27.8%
24.3% 29.3%
5.5% 7.5%
11.9% 14.9%
Revenue
Unweighted Weighted
7.0% 9.2%
17.5% 23.4%
18.6% 24.6%
4.1% 6.2%
9.0% 12.3%
Revenue Value
Unweighted Weighted
$1.4 $1.8
$3.4 $4.5
$3.6 $4.8
$0.8 $1.2
$1.7 $2.4
300m
300mplus DiscreteCanyons 400m
400mplus DiscreteCanyons
Table3.Proportionofeffortandrevenueimpactedbydifferentscenarios,includingtheNational Monument.Revenuevalueisinmillionsannually. Metric
Weighting
Monument
Discrete Canyons
300m
300mplus DiscreteCanyons
400m
400mplus DiscreteCanyons
Effort
Unweighted Weighted
13.0% 14.3%
19.1% 21.7%
32.1% 37.4%
33.0% 38.4%
17.3% 20.3%
21.6% 25.2%
Revenue
Unweighted Weighted
12.2% 14.3%
16.8% 19.3%
26.8% 32.6%
27.5% 33.4%
15.5% 18.1%
18.7% 22.1%
Revenue Value
Unweighted Weighted
$2.4 $2.8
$3.3 $3.7
$5.2 $6.3
$5.4 $6.5
$3.0 $3.5
$3.6 $4.3
9
2. PotentialImpactstotheGulfofMaineLobsterFleetfromProposedCoralClosures TheNewEnglandFisheriesManagementCouncil(NEFMC)OmnibusDeepSeaCoral AmendmentisconsideringtwopotentialclosurestoprotectdeepseacoralsinLobster ManagementArea11.ThesetwoareasofsensitivebenthichabitataretheOuterSchoodic RidgeandMountDesertRockineasternMaine(Figure4).Animportantcomponentof evaluatingtheseareasforhabitatprotectionisunderstandingthepotentialeconomicimpactto coincidingfisheries.Thesetwodiscreteareasunderconsiderationarerecognizedasproductive fishinggroundsparticularlyfortheMainelobsterfleet.NEFMCstaffhaslookedatvesseltrip report(VTR)datatotryandcharacterizethelobsterfishingeffortandrevenueintheseareas; however,thisapproachlikelydoesnotaccuratelycharacterizetheMainelobsterfishery. FederalpermitholdersthatdesignatelobsterͲonlyarenotrequiredtoreportthroughVTRsin Maine.Becauseofthisexemption,only10%ofallMainefederalpermitholdersand3%ofthe totalMainelobsterfleetreportthroughVTRs.Thepermitsarenotuniformlydistributedas thereisaspatialdifferencebetweeneasternandwesternzones.Thefederalpermitsrequiring VTRslanded8%ofthe2015federalpermitlobsterlandingsintheeasternzones(A,B,andC) while13%ofthe2015federallandingswerebyVTRpermitsinthewesternzones(D,E,F,and G)(Figure4).ThislackofrepresentativecoveragerenderstheVTRlobsterdatasetinadequate toassesstheeconomicimpactofthepotentialcoralclosuresontheMainelobsterfleet.The analysispresentedhereusesMainelandingsdatatotrytocharacterizethepotentialrangeof economicimpactsshouldthetwoproposedareasbeclosed.Thefollowingfigureswere providedtotheNEFMCHabitatCommitteewithnotesbytheMaineDepartmentofMarine Resources,butnotasafullydevelopedreport.
Figure4.MaineFishingZonesAthroughG,easttowestwithproposedcoralclosures.Licenseholders declareazoneandmustfish51%oftheirgearintheirdeclaredzone. 1
http://www.nefmc.org/library/omnibusͲdeepͲseaͲcoralͲamendment
10
AvailableDataandMethods ThetwoareasunderconsiderationareintheeasternpartoftheGulfofMainewithinfederal watersofLobsterConservationManagementArea1.TheMountDesertareaiswithinthe3Ͳ 12nmdistancefromshoreinMaineFishingZoneBwhiletheOuterSchoodicRidgeareaismore than12nmoffshoreinZoneA(Figure4).TheGISshapefilesinthemapsandareacalculations forpotentialclosureswereprovidedbytheNEFMC.Duetoknowledgeoftheareasand evidencefromMaineatͲseasamplingdata,itisknownthattheseareaswerehistorically,and arecurrently,fishedbylobsterfishermenfromadjacentzones.Asaresult,thisanalysis considersfisherydatafromZonesA,B,andC.AllfederalpermitholdersmustalsoholdaMaine statelicenseandcanfishineitherstateorfederalwatersbutarerequiredtofish,ata minimum,51%oftheirgearintheirdeclaredzone.VeryfewMainevessels(12nm).Thezonefishedwasreportedbythefishermenand wasassumedtobewherethegearwasset,notnecessarilythelicense’sdeclaredzone.These datawereavailableforfishingyears2008Ͳ2014,butwechosetousethemostrecentfour years.Inadditiontotheexpansionestimatesdescribedlater,monthlyaveragetripvalueand depthwerederivedfromthe2011Ͳ2014harvesterdata. 11
Forbothdealerandharvesterdata,themonetaryvalueofthecatchwascalculatedforeach tripusinganaveragepricepermonthperzoneforeachyear.Alldatawerecategorizedby permittypeasstateͲonly,federalwithVTR,andfederalwithoutVTR.Althoughweconsidered thetotalvalueofthefisheryinthethreezonesincludingallpermittypesforthethreezones, forfurtherexpansion,weonlyusedfederalpermits(withandwithoutVTR)fromboththe dealerandharvesterdatasetsbecauseonlyfederalpermitholderswouldbedirectlyimpacted bythepotentialclosures(stateͲonlypermitsdonothaveaccess). Throughoutreach,theMaineDMRandtheMaineLobstermen’sAssociation(MLA)gathered informationabouttheuseofthepotentialclosureareasfromindustry.Thiswasnota systematicsurvey,butratheratargetedconsultationwithrepresentativeindustrymembers whofishintheseareastodeterminehowmanyandwhichharborscouldbeimpacted,rough estimatesofnumbersofboats,andatwhattimeofyeartheseareasarefishedmostheavily. TheindustrymembersconsultedwerefishermenidentifiedbytheMaineDMRatͲseasampling program,MLAboardmembersandsomeindustrymembersrecommendedbytheoriginalDMR andMLAcontacts. Expansions Weusedthreemethodstoexpandtotalrevenueestimatesfromthemorespatiallyspecificbut limited(10%)harvesterdataintothetotalimpactedpopulation.Thefirstapproach(Expansion Method1)appliedtheaverageproportionsoffederalpermitholdersdeterminedbythe harvesterlogbookdatafor2011Ͳ2014tothedealerdata.Thisexpansion,usingtheproportions fromthe10%harvesterdata,assignedthetotalreportedvalue,landings,andtripsfromthe dealerdatabaseintodistancefromshorecategoriesforeachzone.Thisexpansionshowsthe spatialdistributionofthevariablesacrosszonesanddistancefromshore,butnotthespecific valueofthesmallercoralclosures. Thesecondmethod(ExpansionMethod2)estimatedarangeofrevenuederivedfromthecatch inspecificclosureareas.Weusedacombinationofindustryinformationonnumbersofboats withcombinedharvesterlogbookdataonaveragevaluepertripandnumberoftripsper licensebymonthanddistancefromshore.Someboatsreportedfishingintheseareasnearly allyear,butweconcentratedonthemonthsofhighesteffortdescribedbytheindustry interviews,NovemberthroughApril.RecognizingtheuncertaintyofindustryͲestimatedboat countsandthat,whileacertainnumberofboatscouldbefishinginanarea,theylikelydidnot fishalloftheirgearorearnalloftheirincomeintheareasunderconsideration,weapplieda rangeofpercentincomeandtwooptionsforboatcountsperarea.Thecombinedharvester datawereaveragedover2011Ͳ2014for>12nminZoneAand3Ͳ12nminZoneBtodetermine theaveragetripspermonthperlicenseandtheaveragevaluepertrip.Thevaluewastallied foranannualestimateforthetwoareasforeachboatcountandincomepercentagecategory. Thethirdmethod(ExpansionMethod3)assignedarevenuevaluebysquareareaandmadethe assumptionthateverysquaremileisequallyproductiveforfishing.Becauseoftheassumption (likelyinaccurate)ofequalproductivityandtheuncertaintyrelatedtotheabilityofvesselsto fishadjacentzones,wecombinedthedataforZonesA,B,andC.Toattributethevaluebyarea, 12
weusedaverageproportionsbydistancefromshorederivedfromcombinedharvesterdata (2011Ͳ2014).Itwasnecessarytoaveragetheproportionsoverfouryearsbecauseof confidentialityanduncertaintyduetotherelativelysmallsamplesize.Thesevalueproportions, categorizedbydistancefromshore,wereappliedtothetotalvalueandnumberofpounds landed,trips,fromthe2015dealerdatainthecombinedthreezones.Thetotalareaforeach zoneanddistancefromshorewerecalculatedinArcGIS.Thesquaremileageoftheproposed closureswas1.5%ofthetotalareaofthethreezonescombinedoutside3nm,sotheestimates fortheentirearea(ZonesAͲC)weremultipliedby1.5%toestimatethevaluewithinthe proposedclosures.
CharacterizationoftheMainefishery In2015,theMainelobsterfisherywasworthmorethan$500millionintotalexͲvesselvaluefor bothstateͲonlyandfederallypermittedvessels.Thecombinedtotalvalueforthethreeeastern zoneswasmorethan$296millionwithstateͲonlylicensesmakingupthelargestproportionof permits(Figure5).ZoneCrepresentedthegreatestvalueinlandingsoverall,withthehighest proportionfromstateͲonlypermitsofthethreezones.ZoneAhadthesecondhighestoverall landingsvalue,andZoneBhadthelowestoverallvalue.Whilealmost75%ofpermitswere stateͲonly(Table4),thefederalpermitswithoutVTRrequirementsproducedthehighest proportionofvalueinZonesAandB(Figure5).Inallthreezones,theVTRpermitsrepresented thesmallestproportionofvalueofthethreepermittypes.
2015TotalValueand PermitTypeBreakdown byZone
Figure5.TotalvaluefromMainedealerdataforZonesA,B,andCwiththeratioofvaluebypermittype forfederalwithandwithoutVTRrequirementsandstateͲonlypermits. 13
ThetotalnumberofpermitsforZonesA,BandCin2015was2,316with640ofthosepermits beingfederalpermits,withorwithoutVTRs(Table4).In2015,federalpermitsrequiredto submitVTRsharvested8%ofthelandingsforZonesA,B,andCwhileallfederalpermitslanded 57%ofthetotallandingsinthesamearea.Withinthethreeeasternzones,139,780tripswere completedbythelobsterfleetwith56,381tripsfromthefederallypermittedvessels(Table4). Table4.Maine100%tripͲleveldealerdatafor2015bypermittype.FederalincludesbothVTRandno VTRpermits. Permitnumbers Zone FederalNoVTR FederalwVTR StateOnly Total Federal %federal A 271 28 664 963 299 31% B 161 10 408 579 171 30% C 160 10 604 774 170 22%
Trips Zone A B C
FederalNoVTR 21,702 13,098 17,283
FederalwVTR 2,357 991 950
StateOnly 29,539 17,933 35,927
Total 53,598 32,022 54,160
Federal 24,059 14,089 18,233
%federal 45% 44% 34%
Value Zone A B C
FederalNoVTR 60,261,907 39,009,830 55,979,051
FederalwVTR 6,039,883 3,671,325 3,791,784
StateOnly 33,316,457 28,076,911 66,224,717
Total 99,618,247 70,758,066 125,995,552
Federal 66,301,790 42,681,155 59,770,835
%federal 67% 60% 47%
Landings Zone A B C
FederalNoVTR 15,054,051 9,327,846 13,631,809
FederalwVTR StateOnly Total Federal %federal 1,543,886 9,056,975 25,654,912 16,597,937 65% 874,674 6,740,661 16,943,181 10,202,520 60% 910,528 17,079,316 31,621,653 14,542,337 46%
14
ThecombinationofharvesterandVTRdatadeterminedtheproportionsofvalue,numberof trips,andlandingsbyzoneanddistancefromshore.Withinagivenzone,theproportionof effort(trips)thattookplaceineachdistancecategorywasnotnecessarilyrepresentativeofthe resultinglandingsorvalue(Table5).Althoughtherewerefewertripsinthe>12nmregion,the relativeproportionofvaluewashigher(thanthetripproportion)inallzones,especiallyinZone A(Table5).Forpermitsandtrips,allzoneshadthehighestproportioninstatewaters,lessin3Ͳ 12nm,andthesmallestdistributionin>12nm.Forvalueandlandings,ZoneAwasdifferent fromtheothertwozoneswheretheregionbetween3Ͳ12nmhadthehighestproportionfor valueandlandingswhileZonesCandBhadthehighestinstatewaters. Table5.Proportionoftrips,value,andlandingsbydistancefromshore(nauticalmiles)offederal permitsaveragedover2011Ͳ2014fromthecombinedharvesterandVTRdatabyzone.
TRIPS ZoneA ZoneB ZoneC
0Ͳ3 53% 59% 66%
3Ͳ12 39% 31% 25%
>12 8% 10% 9%
0Ͳ3 38% 49% 60%
3Ͳ12 47% 36% 30%
>12 15% 14% 10%
0Ͳ3 40% 52% 63%
3Ͳ12 48% 36% 28%
>12 13% 13% 9%
VALUE ZoneA ZoneB ZoneC LANDINGS ZoneA ZoneB ZoneC
15
Monthlycharacteristicsofdepthandvalue Thereportedvalueanddepthfromtheharvesterlogbookdatasetindicatedtrendsdepending onzone,month,anddistancefromshore.Thehighestmeanvaluewasfoundinlatefall (OctoberthroughDecember)inZoneAoutsideof12nm(Figure6).Therewashighervariability ofvalueinthelatefall,winterandspringmonthsindicatedbythelengthoftheviolinwands. Generallyallareashadagreatervaluepertripinthefallmonthswhenthecatchwashigher. Pricesaretypicallyhigherinthewinterandspringbutthecatchvolumeislower.Because therearefewerfederallypermittedvesselsandthestateͲonlyboatsdonothaveaccessto offshorefishinggrounds,thereisopportunitytocatchmorevolumeandvaluepertripoffshore inthefallmonths.
Figure6.Violinplotsofmonthlyvaluepertripbyzoneanddistancefromshoreforfederalpermits reportedbythecombinedVTRandharvesterdataoveryears2011Ͳ2014.Thebluedotsrepresentthe meanwhilethewidthandlengthoftheshaperepresentsthedistributionofthedata.
Generallythelobsterfleetfishesinshallowwaterduringthesummerfollowingthelobster movement(molting)andintodeepwatersforthewinter.Inthe3Ͳ12nmdistancefromshore, 16
theaveragedepthfishedwaslessthan100minallthreezones.Thegreatestaveragedepths fishedwereoutsideof12nminZonesA.Overall,greaterdepthswerereportedinwinterand springbuttherewashighvariabilityyearͲround(Figure7).Depthsreportedinharvester logbooksandVTRsaredifficulttoverifywithoutmoredetailedspatialdata,buttheaverage trendsfollowunderstoodpatternsofthefleetbehavior.Therangeofdepthintheproposed closuresisbetween100Ͳ250m.UsingthebathymetrymapdatafromtheNOAANCEIU.S. CoastalReliefModel2wecharacterizedthedepthsofthepotentialclosures(Figure8).While thefleetfishesshallowerdepthsonaverage,thedistributionsofdepthwithintheclosuresand thereporteddepthsbytheMainelobsterfleetoverlap,especiallyinthewinterandspring months(Figures7and8).
Figure7.Violinplotsofmonthlydepthspertripbyzoneanddistancefromshoreforfederalpermits reportedbythecombinedVTRandharvesterdataoveryears2011Ͳ2014.Thebluedotsrepresentthe meanwhilethewidthandlengthoftheshaperepresentsthedistribution.
datafromtheNOAANCEIU.S.CoastalReliefModel(Retrieved9/10/2013, http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/mgg/coastal/crm.html),whichhasaresolutionof3arcminutes. 2
17
Figure8.Depthdistributionoftheproposedclosuresbasedonthebathymetryshapefile2.
Spatiallyspecificindustrycontributionsonpotentialcoralclosure Interviewswithlobsterindustrymembersindicatedthatlobsterharvestingistheprimary economicdriverforbothWashingtonandHancockCounties,thecountiesadjacenttothe closures.Theproposedclosedareashaverecentlybecomeparticularlyimportantfishing groundsforvesselsoriginatingfromthesecountiesduringthelatefall,winter,andspring. IndustrymembersreportedthatbothareasarefishedyearͲroundbyasmallernumberof fishermen.Roughly35Ͳ50boatsfrombothZonesBandCfishtheMountDesertRockArea whichhasbecomeanincreasinglyvaluablefishinggroundoverthepastdecade.TheOuter SchoodicRidgeAreaisfishedbyatleast50boatsfrombothZonesBandAandishistoricallyan importantfishingarea.Combined,thetwoareasarecurrentlyfishedbyboatsfromatleast15 differentharborsinthetwocountiesacrossthethreezones.Mostoftheseboatsemploytwo crewmembersinadditiontothecaptain.Areasaroundthebordersofthesepotentialclosures arealsoheavilyfishedsodisplacementofeffortwouldlikelycauseconflict.
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ExpansionResults ExpansionMethod1:Proportionsbydistancefromshore DataderivedfromTables4and5wereusedtoapportiontrips,value,andlandingstodistance fromshorecategorieswithineachzone(Figures9,10&11).Theproportionsderivedfromthe 2011Ͳ2014combinedharvesterandVTRdatawereusedtoallocatethetotalsfromthedealer dataintodifferentspatialareas.FortheMountDesertRockarea,thevalue,landingsandtrips forZoneBbetween3and12nmwasestimatedtobe$15.3millionand3.6millionpoundsfrom morethan4,300trips.Theareaoutsideof12nminZoneA,surroundingtheOuterSchoodic Ridgeclosure,thenumberswere$9.8millionand2.1millionpoundsfromabout1,900trips. Someuncertaintywasintroducedusingthismethodofcombiningtwodatastreamsbecause fishermenreportthezonefishedintheharvesterreportandVTR,whilethetotalfleetvalue, pounds,andtripscollectedbythedealerswereattributedtotheportandzonewherethe harvestwassold.Withthisinmind,someofthe3Ͳ12nmregiondataforZoneCdealer reportedvaluecouldbeattributedtoZoneBandsomeofthegreaterthan12nmdatafrom ZoneBcouldbeattributedtoZoneA.
2015FederalPermitValue by distancefromshoreandzone
Figure9.Valuefrom2015Mainedealerdatabydistancefromshore(nm)ineachzone.Valueallocation wasbasedontheaverageproportionsfrom2011Ͳ2014fromthecombinationofharvesterreportsand selectedVTRs.Onlyfederalpermitdatawereincluded.
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2015FederalPermitLandings(lb) bydistancefromshoreandzone
Figure10.Landingsfrom2015Mainedealerdatabydistancefromshore(nm)ineachzone.Landings wereallocatedbasedontheaverageproportionsfrom2011Ͳ2014fromthecombinationofharvester reportsandselectedVTRs.Onlyfederalpermitdatawereincluded.
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2015FederalPermitTrips by distancefromshoreandzone
Figure11.Tripfrom2015Mainedealerdatabydistancefromshore(nm)ineachzone.Tripallocation wasbasedontheaverageproportionsfrom2011Ͳ2014fromthecombinationofharvesterreportsand selectedVTRs.Onlyfederalpermitdatawereincluded.
ExpansionMethod2:Averagevalueoftripandnumberofboats Thesecondmethodforestimatingtherevenuesassociatedwithspecificclosureareasuseda combinationofindustryinputandaveragetripvaluesfromtheharvesterdata.Interviews indicatedeachareasupportedamaximumof50boatsinthelatefall,winter,andearlyspring (MLA/DMRInterviews).WelimitedtheanalysistothemonthsofNovemberthroughApril, understandingthatsomeeffortdoesoccuryearͲround.Toaccountforuncertaintyinthe numbersofboatsovertime,weconductedtheanalysisfortwolevelsoffishingeffort:50and 25boatsperarea.Additionaluncertaintywasrecognizedbecausetheproportionofincome andgearperlicenseforthespecificclosureareaswasunknown.Assumingthattheboatswere unlikelytoderive100%oftheirincomefromthesediscretecoralprotectionareas,weused 100%asamaximum,50%asthemoderatelevel,and25%astheminimum. Expansionoftheseindustrynumberswasbasedonaveragevaluepertripandaveragetripsper monthperlicenseestimatedfromthe2011Ͳ2014harvesterlogbookandselectedVTRdataset forthetworegionscontainingtheproposedclosures(Table6).Thevaluerangedfroma maximum$6,610pertripinZoneA,>12nminNovembertoaminimum$1,129inZoneB,3Ͳ 12nminApril.Ingeneral,theaveragenumberoftripsforeachpermitwashighestinthefall 21
andlowestinJanuarythroughMarch.Therevenuesweresummedoverbothareasandthe numberofboatswasheldconstantoverallincludedmonths.Theestimatedrevenuesranged fromamaximumof$8.5milliontoaminimumofaround$1millionfrom50boats,100% incomeand25boats25%income,respectively(Table7). Table6.Averagevaluepertripandnumberoftripsperpermitpermonthfromthecombinedharvester reportandVTRdataset2011Ͳ2014forthetwospecificregionsofthepotentialclosures.
AverageVALUEpertrip(fromcombinedharvester/selectedVTR) Jan Feb Mar Apr $3,260 $3,719 $3,446 $2,632 ZoneA>12 ZoneB3Ͳ12mi $1,822 $1,286 $1,294 $1,129 Average#oftripsperpermit(fromcombinedharvester/selectedVTR) Jan Feb Mar Apr 3 3 3 4 ZoneA>12 ZoneB3Ͳ12 3 3 3 5
Nov $6,610 $3,264
Dec $4,378 $2,151
Nov 9 7
Dec 5 4
Table7.Expandedrevenueestimatesusingvaluepertripandnumberoftripspermonthwitharangeof boatnumbersandpercentincomederivedfromtheclosureareas. 100%income 50%income 25%income 25boatsperarea $4,250,650 $2,125,325 $1,062,663 50boatsperarea $8,501,300 $4,250,650 $2,125,325
ExpansionMethod3:PercentofArea HighuncertaintywasassociatedwiththeExpansionMethod3becauseoftheassumptionthat everysquaremileofoceanhabitatwasequallyproductivelobsterbottom;however,this approachdidaccountfortheerrorassociatedwithboatsfishinginadjacentzonesand reportingintheirhomeportbycombiningthethreezones.Averageproportionsofvalue,trips, andlandingsbydistancefromshorederivedfromtheharvesterreportandVTRdatasetwere calculatedfromthecombineddataforZonesA,B,andCfor2011Ͳ2014(Table8).Thedealer dataprovidedthetotalvalue,trips,andlandingsforthecombinedthreezones(Table9).The harvesterlogbookproportionswereappliedtothedealerdataannuallyfrom2011through 2015toestimatethetrips,landings,andvalueforeachdistancefromshorecategoryforthe wholearea.Wefocusedonthetotalestimatesforoutsideof3nm(Table10).Usingthe1.5% areacalculationoftheproposedclosures,theestimatedrevenuewas$1.2millionfrom349 tripsand~300,000poundslandedin2015(Table10). Table8.Proportionofvalue,trips,andlandingsbydistancefromshore(nm)fromthethreezones combinedbasedonharvesterandVTRdatafrom2011Ͳ2014.Federalpermitsonly.
0Ͳ3 Zones 3Ͳ12 ABC >12
Value 49% 38% 13%
Trips 59% 33% 9%
Landings 51% 37% 11% 22
Table9.Annualtotalvalue,trips,andlandingsfromthethreezonescombinedfromthedealerdata 2011Ͳ2015.Federalpermitsonly.
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Value $98,088,305 $107,877,076 $127,118,351 $162,049,914 $168,753,780
Trips 53,384 56,606 58,273 56,483 56,381
Landings 31,089,672 40,374,885 44,492,387 44,116,485 41,342,794
Table10.Expandedestimatesfortrips,landingsandvalueforallthreezonesoutsideof3nmandforthe proposedcoralclosures(1.5%ofthetotalareaoutsideof3nm).
Zone
Year
Est.trips Est. Expanded Expanded Expanded Est.valuein incoral landingsin tripsin>3 landingsin>3 valuein>3 coralareas areas coralareas
A,B,&C A,B,&C A,B,&C A,B,&C A,B,&C
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
22,015 23,344 24,031 23,293 23,251
330 350 360 349 349
15,100,568 19,610,490 21,610,403 21,427,824 20,080,614
226,509 294,157 324,156 321,417 301,209
$49,459,548 $54,395,388 $64,097,511 $81,711,225 $85,091,548
$741,893 $815,931 $961,463 $1,225,668 $1,276,373
Discussion Thefirststepintheexpansionprocessthatdeterminedthedistributionofrevenuevalue, landings,andtripsamongthethreeimpactedzonesbydistancefromshoreillustratesthehigh valueandlevelofeffortintheeasternMainelobsterfishery(ExpansionMethod1).Federal permitholdersfishinbothstateandfederalwaters.Thestatewaterswerethemostvaluable withthehighestlandings,buttheareasoutsideof3nmwheretheproposedclosuresare locatedwerealsoimportantsourcesofvalueandsignificantlevelsofeffort. Thetwoexpansionmethods(ExpansionMethods2and3)tocalculatethefisheryrevenuesand potentialdirectimpactoftheproposedcoralclosureareaslikelyprovideaminimumand maximumrangethatshouldencompassthetruevalue.TheTechnicalCommitteewaswaryof tryingtodeterminerevenueatafinerspatialscalethanthescaleatwhichthedatawere collected.Weconsideredthebestestimateoftherevenuevaluepotentiallylostfromthese closurestobetheExpansionMethod2combiningindustryinterviewsestimatingboatsand monthsfishedwiththeharvesterlogbooksreportingaveragenumberoftripsandvalueby month.Providingtherangeofestimatesbasedonthemaximumandminimumnumberboats fishingandpercentincomeassociatedwiththeclosureswasintendedtoaccountforthe uncertaintyinthosedatasources.Takingthefullindustryestimateof50boatsineachareafor thefallandwintertimeperiodandassuming100%incomeslikelyproducedanoverestimateof revenue.GiventhatthecombinedareaͲbasedestimate(forZoneA>12andZoneB3Ͳ12)was $25million(seeFigure8),the$8millionrevenueestimatefromthesetwodiscreteareaswas likelytoohigh.Findingmiddlegroundandrelyingontheinputfromfishermen,the$4.2million 23
revenueestimatefor50boatsineachareaand50%incomefortheincludedmonthsseems likelytobethemostrealisticscenariotoestimatetheeconomicimpactoftheseproposed closures(Figure12).Thereareunresolvedissuesconcerninguncertaintyintherelationship betweentheamountsofgearfished,value,andmonthsfished.Therewassubstantial variabilityinthedataforvaluepertrip(asreportedthroughlogbooksandVTRs),thusestimates ofvaluecouldbemisͲcharacterized.Additionally,ifhalfthegearfor50boatswassetinthese areasatonetime,thetrapdensitycouldbeupto500Ͳ1,000trapspersquaremile,which seemsunrealisticallyhigh. ExpansionMethod3,basedoncalculatedareaassumedequalproductivityofeachsquaremile outsideofstatewatersinthethreezones,likelyresultedinanunderestimateofrevenue.Itis unlikelythattheentirehabitatwithinZonesA,B,andCisequallyproductivelobsterbottom, especiallywhenboatsarefishingfurtherfromshore.Attemptingtoestimatetherevenuevalue forasmallsubsetofthetotalareaintroducedhighuncertaintyanderrorsinceneitherthe10% harvesterdatanorthe100%dealerdatawascollectedatafinerspatialscalethandistance fromshoreand/orzone.ThescaleofthefisheryineasternMaineandthestatedimportance ofthesediscreteareasatcertaintimesoftheyearmaketheannualestimateoflessthan$1.5 million(Table10)seemveryunlikely.Fishermeninterviewsindicatedthattheproposedcoral areascouldbetwotofourtimesasproductiveasotherbottomhabitatsothe$1.5million estimatecouldscaleupclosertothe$4.2millionestimate.
*
Figure12.ComparisonofrevenueestimatesbasedonExpansionMethods2and3.ExpansionMethod2 wasbasedontheaveragevalueoftripandnumberofboatswithsplitpercentincomewhileExpansion Method3calculatedthepercentvalueofthetotalarea.The*denotesthescenariodeterminedtobest estimaterevenues.
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RecentobservationsofcoralsfromROVsurveysweretypicallyfoundatdepthsgreaterthan 180m3.TheMainelogbookdataindicatessomeMainelobsterboatsfishatorgreaterthan 180m,but,evenduringthewinter,thefleetdoesnotfishatthosedepthsonaverage.While theaveragedepthfishedbytheMainelobsterfleetwaslessthandepthsoflikelyhighcoral abundance,thedepthdistributionwithintheclosuresdoesoverlapwiththefleet’sfishing activityastheclosuresextendtoshallowerdepths(seeFigures7and8). Anothersourceofuncertaintyregardingtheinteractionbetweenthelobsterindustryanddeep seacoralswasidentifiedbytheindustryinterviewsandcouldnotbequantified.TheNEFMC OmnibusAmendmentdeterminedthathardcoralsweremostlikelytobefoundinthesteepest gradientsofdepthonhardbottomhabitatforming“walls”.Thelobsterfisheryisrequiredto usesinkinggroundlinestopreventlargewhaleentanglements,andthislinemaychafewhen gearisfishednearcoralsorthejaggededgesofcoralhabitat,resultinginlossofgear.Because ofthis,mostfishermenreportedtryingtoavoidcoralstopreventthelossoffishinggear.
WhaleCoͲOccurrence Anadditionalconcernthatneedstobeaddressedrelatestothedisplacementofeffortoutof closedareas,andtheresultinginteractionswithexistingregulations.NOAAFisheries,in consultationwiththeAtlanticLargeWhaleTakeReductionTeam,developedacoͲoccurrence modelofendangeredrightwhalesandfixedgearfishingeffortfortheFinalRuleoftheAtlantic LargeWhaleTakeReductionPlanin20144.Thelobsterindustrycomprisesthemajorityoffixed gearwithverticallinesinthisregionandisrepresentedinthemodelusingavarietyofdata sources,includingStateofMainedealerandharvesterreports,VTR,andfishingpractices surveyscompletedbyDMRin2010.Themodelexploredtheoverlapofrightwhalesandgear intheformofwhalesightingsanddensitiesofverticallinesinspaceandtimeexpressedasa coͲoccurrencescoreintenminutegridcells.Thescoreshavenounitotherthantherelative amountofoverlapbetweensightingsandverticallines.Thiscanbedrivenbyhighnumbersof whalesightings,highdensitiesofverticallines,ortheoccurrenceofboth.AplotofcoͲ occurrencescoreswiththepotentialcoralclosureareaswascreatedtoshowanypotential conflicts(Figure13).TheproposedOuterSchoodicRidgecoralclosureoverlappedwitha relativelyhighcoͲoccurrencescore(100Ͳ1,000),whereastheotherproposedareanearMount DesertRockdidnotdirectlycoincidewithbutislocatedadjacenttoareasofhighcoͲ occurrence. SpatialclosuresinMainehavebeenavoidedintheAtlanticLargeWhaleTakeReductionPlan, dueinparttoconcernsaboutthedisplacementofeffortandthepotentialtoincreasethe densityofverticallinesalongtheedgesofaclosure.Asimilarscenarioexistshererelativeto theproposedcoralclosures,withdisplacementofgearcreatingahigherriskofentanglementin theareassurroundingtheclosure.Forthisreason,thereisgreaterconcernregarding
Personalcommunication.M.Bachman,NEFMC1/24/2017 FinalEnvironmentalImpactStatementforAmendingtheAtlanticLargeWhaleTakeReductionPlan:VerticalLine Rule.May2014.
3 4
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unintendedimpactstowhalesintheOuterSchoodicRidgeareawherewhalesareknownto frequent,whiletheimpactnearMountDesertRockislesscertain.
Outer Schoodic Ridge Mount DesertRock
Figure13.TheannualaveragecoͲoccurrencescoreintenminutegridcellsshownwithproposedcoral closureareas.RightwhalesightingsusedtocalculatethecoͲoccurrencescoreincludeaerialand shipboardstandardizedsurveysfrom1978Ͳ2011summarizedintheNorthAtlanticRightWhale ConsortiumDatabaseandtheNavyMarineResourceAssessmentDatabase.Verticallinedensitiesused tocalculatethecoͲoccurrencescoresincludeVTR,StateofMainedealerandharvesterdata,and voluntarygearconfigurationsurveysdonebyDMRin2010.
LiteratureCited: Whitmore,K.,Morrissey,E.,Ware,M.,andGlenn,R.2016.Characterizationoftheoffshore AmericanlobsterandJonahcraptrapfisheryinLobsterConservationManagementArea3in andaroundtheSouthernNewEnglandandGeorgesBankcanyons.PreparedfortheAtlantic StatesMarineFisheriesCommission.UpdatedJuly5,2016;17pp 26
