AYGAZ 4Q 2010 Results
AYGAZ 4Q 2010 Results March 10, 2011
Highlights- 2010 Turkish LPG consumption grew by 1% in 2010 Aygaz increased its market share in cylinder segment as well as keeping its market leadership in all segments
Distribution markups stayed at sustainable levels Regarding electricity segment, Increasing supply due the new capacities added, created downward pressure on prices
10.11.2010 10.03.2011
2
Turkish LPG Market thousand tons
1,200 1,000
800 600
441
524
599
55 244
39 256
33 273
44
296
299
286
297
657
573
548
593
481
523
618
713
635
400 200
254
40 229
50 254 52 287 39 266
269
283
281
301
34 228
31 259
29 293
32 264
251
266
263
264
-
cylinder
bulk
auto
Aygaz*
* excluding wholesale
•Total LPG consumption stayed same in the fourth quarter of 2010 with 931 thousand tons •Total LPG consumption in 2010 reached 3,659 thousand tons •Turkish autogas consumption grew by 8% and cylinder volumes contracted by 8% YoY EPDK , TLPGA
10.11.2010 10.03.2011
3
Aygaz LPG volumes 500
thousand tons
400 127
300
132
200
103
124
145
22
13
12
119
116
57 39
100 119
65 124
118
174
120
105 169
165
143
195
91
141
171
148
109
133
14
15
11
10
12
13
16
16
14
116
105
109
111
111
98
104
106
102
118
0
cylinder
bulk
auto
other
•Aygaz cylinder sales contracted by 6%, while Turkish cylinder volume contracted by 8%, YoY •Autogas and bulk sales increased by 5% and 11% respectively, YoY •Exports increased by 39% YoY EPDK , Aygaz
10.11.2010 10.03.2011
4
LPG- price and tax* 5,000
Average listed selling price increased by 22% for cylinder and 20% for auto YoY
Refinery prices and total tax increased by 38% and 22% respectively YoY
Year-end LPG mix price increased by 39% and closed the year at 967$/ton level
TL/ton
4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0
cylinder selling price
autogas selling price
2,000
TL/ton
1,500 1,000 500 0
commodity price
total tax
*Periodic arithmetic averages
10.11.2010 10.03.2011
5
Electricity - Entek 41
27
28
480
463
483
27
422
Average sales price contracted by 20% YoY
Natural gas costs decreased by 15% YoY
2010 sales composed of: PMUM – 52%, Trade– 43%, Steam – 5%
27
371
29 26
31
28
468
436
Electricity
498
Trade
31
32
543
36
186
418
445
192 570
457
Steam
95
86 million TL
Electricity sales volume increased by 34% YoY while revenue reached to 401m TL with a 7% growth
Gwh
Sales Volume
1
8
4
-9
Q4 09 Net sales
7
0
Q4 10 Gross profit
EBITDA
Net profit
10.11.2010 10.03.2011
6
Net sales / segmental 1,200
21 86
1,000
M TL
800
25 84
25 107 33 79
113
25 85 19 120
1,103 783
721
843
772
27 110
46 95
37 86
600 400
31 61
61 135
845 672
688
Gas
Electricity
972
926
1,031
1,162
200 0
Other
Gas revenues and electricity revenues increased by 5% and 11% respectively QoQ Gas revenues and electricity revenues increased by 24% and 7% respectively YoY leading to consolidated sales revenue increase by 23% reaching 4,658m TL 10.11.2010 10.03.2011
7
M TL
Gross profit / segmental 200
25%
160
20%
120
15%
80
10%
40
5%
0
0%
Gas
Electricity
Other
Cons.gross profit margin
Consolidated gross profit increased by 25% QoQ Gas GP up by 18% QoQ Electricity GP up by 382% QoQ
Q4 2010 gross profit margins for gas and electricity segments are 12% and 4% respectively 10.11.2010 10.03.2011
8
EBITDA 160
20%
140
18% 16%
M TL
120
14%
100
12%
80
10%
60
8% 6%
40
4%
20
2%
0
0%
EBITDA
•
•
EBITDA margin
EBITDA is 79m TL in the fourth quarter of 2010, giving an EBITDA margin of 6% EBITDA is 306m TL for 2010 with an EBITDA margin of 7%
10.11.2010 10.03.2011
9
Net Profit 200
20%
150
15% 10%
Million TL
100
5%
50
0% 0
-5% -50
-10%
-100
-15%
-150
-20%
-200
-25%
Net Profit
Net profit margin
Net profit decreased by 65% QoQ and is equal to 29m • Net profit margin for Q4 10 is equal to 2% • Net profit for 2010 is equal to 239m TL with a net profit margin of 5%
10.11.2010 10.03.2011
10
Conclusion Main factors affecting ratios in 2010:
Contribution from EYAŞ was limited with 42m TL due to the provisions of Tüpraş for excise tax penalty of 181m TL Electricity segment profit margins were effected negatively from the fast growing supply putting downside pressure on prices Rise in final selling of LPG price due to commodity price and Fx rate, put pressure on demand and as a result increased competition Aygaz closed 2010, with a net cash position of 151m TL
m TL Sales Revenue Gross Profit EBITDA Net Profit Gross Profit Margin EBITDA Margin Net Profit Margin Gas sales (retail) (k ton) Gas sales(wholesale) (k ton) Electricity sales (Gwh)
Q4 08
Q4 09
Q4 10
2009
2010
879 128 83 -168 15% 9% -19%
1.210 124 52 82 10% 4% 7%
1.303 155 79 29 12% 6% 2%
3.761 553 390 315 15% 10% 8%
4.658 501 306 239 11% 7% 5%
254 42 448
266 84 575
265 77 680
1,035 306 2.062
1,041 289 2.761 10.11.2010 10.03.2011
11
2011 prospects 2011 Turkish LPG sales volume is expected to increase Turkish autogas volumes are expected to reach 2,7 million with a growth of 8% YoY Market share increase for all segments is targeted Entek-AES partnership is expected to result in new investments providing diversification in resources
10.11.2010 10.03.2011
12
Income Statement Summary Q1 09
Q2 09
Q3 09
Q4 09
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
rQ Q310/Q410
Net sales
811
810
955
1,210
1,064
1,063
1,227
1,303
8%
6%
COGS
-644
-680
-823
-1,086
-956
-959
-1,094
-1,148
6%
5%
Gross profit
167
130
132
124
108
104
134
155
25%
16%
Operating profit
117
76
72
27
50
42
69
57
109%
-18%
Profit before tax
31
155
96
92
62
54
130
37
-60%
-72%
Net Profit
16
148
89
59
50
45
115
29
-51%
-75%
EBITDA
142
100
97
52
74
62
91
79
52%
-14%
GP margin
21%
16%
14%
10%
10%
10%
11%
12%
2
1
OP margin
14%
9%
8%
2%
5%
4%
6%
4%
2
-2
PBT margin
4%
19%
10%
8%
6%
5%
11%
3%
-5
-8
NP margin
2%
18%
10%
5%
5%
4%
9%
2%
-3
-7
EBITDA margin
17%
12%
10%
4%
7%
6%
7%
6%
2
1
(million TL)
10.11.2010 10.03.2011
13
Balance Sheet Summary 07
08
3M 09
6M 09
9M 09
09
3M 10
6M 10
9M 10
10
rY %
97
405
232
236
244
408
302
246
302
262
-36%
261
264
327
313
344
337
280
295
326
265
-21%
120
84
116
106
120
81
148
154
127
159
78%
Participations Prop. Plant & Equipment
1,060
944
895
978
1,024
1,007
1,007
1,081
1,136
1,180
17%
710
672
692
708
710
711
693
687
680
475
-33%
Financial Debt
(327)
(448)
(455)
(363)
(378)
(435)
(198)
(199)
(173)
Trade Payables
223
314
162
178
188
168
229
233
239
300
79%
Total Equity
1,418
1,474
1,468
1,619
1,669
1,757
1,797
1,812
1,927
2,014
15%
Total Assets Fin.Debt/ Tot. Assets Fin.Debt/ Tot.Equity
2,294
2,465
2,348
2,414
2,502
2,604
2,510
2,523
2,631
2,804
7%
14%
18%
19%
15%
15%
17%
8%
8%
7%
4%
-13
23%
30%
31%
22%
23%
25%
11%
11%
9%
6%
-20
Net Cash (Debt)
(230)
(42)
(223)
(127)
(134)
(28)
105
47
129
151 -649%
Working Capital
159
34
281
241
276
258
199
216
214
124
(million TL) Cash & Cash Equivalents Trade Receivables Inventories
(111) -74%
-52%
10.11.2010 10.03.2011
14
Contacts [email protected] Gökhan Tezel, CFO E-mail: [email protected] Phone: +90 212 354 1733 Mehmet Özkan, Finance Manager E-mail: [email protected] Phone: +90 212 354 1657 Selin Sanver, Investor Relations E-mail: [email protected] Phone: +90 212 354 1659 www.aygaz.com.tr 10.11.2010 10.03.2011
15
Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect the company management’s current views with respect to certain future events. Although it is believed that the expectations reflected in these statements are reasonable, they may be affected by a variety of variables and changes in underlying assumptions that could cause actual results to differ materially. Neither Aygaz nor any of its directors, managers or employees nor any other person shall have any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this presentation. All financials are consolidated figures and all Aygaz labelled operational data includes AYGAZ Group figures (Aygaz and Mogaz) unless otherwise stated.
10.11.2010 10.03.2011
16
Highlights- 2010 Turkish LPG consumption grew by 1% in 2010 Aygaz increased its market share in cylinder segment as well as keeping its market leadership in all segments
Distribution markups stayed at sustainable levels Regarding electricity segment, Increasing supply due the new capacities added, created downward pressure on prices
10.11.2010 10.03.2011
2
Turkish LPG Market thousand tons
1,200 1,000
800 600
441
524
599
55 244
39 256
33 273
44
296
299
286
297
657
573
548
593
481
523
618
713
635
400 200
254
40 229
50 254 52 287 39 266
269
283
281
301
34 228
31 259
29 293
32 264
251
266
263
264
-
cylinder
bulk
auto
Aygaz*
* excluding wholesale
•Total LPG consumption stayed same in the fourth quarter of 2010 with 931 thousand tons •Total LPG consumption in 2010 reached 3,659 thousand tons •Turkish autogas consumption grew by 8% and cylinder volumes contracted by 8% YoY EPDK , TLPGA
10.11.2010 10.03.2011
3
Aygaz LPG volumes 500
thousand tons
400 127
300
132
200
103
124
145
22
13
12
119
116
57 39
100 119
65 124
118
174
120
105 169
165
143
195
91
141
171
148
109
133
14
15
11
10
12
13
16
16
14
116
105
109
111
111
98
104
106
102
118
0
cylinder
bulk
auto
other
•Aygaz cylinder sales contracted by 6%, while Turkish cylinder volume contracted by 8%, YoY •Autogas and bulk sales increased by 5% and 11% respectively, YoY •Exports increased by 39% YoY EPDK , Aygaz
10.11.2010 10.03.2011
4
LPG- price and tax* 5,000
Average listed selling price increased by 22% for cylinder and 20% for auto YoY
Refinery prices and total tax increased by 38% and 22% respectively YoY
Year-end LPG mix price increased by 39% and closed the year at 967$/ton level
TL/ton
4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0
cylinder selling price
autogas selling price
2,000
TL/ton
1,500 1,000 500 0
commodity price
total tax
*Periodic arithmetic averages
10.11.2010 10.03.2011
5
Electricity - Entek 41
27
28
480
463
483
27
422
Average sales price contracted by 20% YoY
Natural gas costs decreased by 15% YoY
2010 sales composed of: PMUM – 52%, Trade– 43%, Steam – 5%
27
371
29 26
31
28
468
436
Electricity
498
Trade
31
32
543
36
186
418
445
192 570
457
Steam
95
86 million TL
Electricity sales volume increased by 34% YoY while revenue reached to 401m TL with a 7% growth
Gwh
Sales Volume
1
8
4
-9
Q4 09 Net sales
7
0
Q4 10 Gross profit
EBITDA
Net profit
10.11.2010 10.03.2011
6
Net sales / segmental 1,200
21 86
1,000
M TL
800
25 84
25 107 33 79
113
25 85 19 120
1,103 783
721
843
772
27 110
46 95
37 86
600 400
31 61
61 135
845 672
688
Gas
Electricity
972
926
1,031
1,162
200 0
Other
Gas revenues and electricity revenues increased by 5% and 11% respectively QoQ Gas revenues and electricity revenues increased by 24% and 7% respectively YoY leading to consolidated sales revenue increase by 23% reaching 4,658m TL 10.11.2010 10.03.2011
7
M TL
Gross profit / segmental 200
25%
160
20%
120
15%
80
10%
40
5%
0
0%
Gas
Electricity
Other
Cons.gross profit margin
Consolidated gross profit increased by 25% QoQ Gas GP up by 18% QoQ Electricity GP up by 382% QoQ
Q4 2010 gross profit margins for gas and electricity segments are 12% and 4% respectively 10.11.2010 10.03.2011
8
EBITDA 160
20%
140
18% 16%
M TL
120
14%
100
12%
80
10%
60
8% 6%
40
4%
20
2%
0
0%
EBITDA
•
•
EBITDA margin
EBITDA is 79m TL in the fourth quarter of 2010, giving an EBITDA margin of 6% EBITDA is 306m TL for 2010 with an EBITDA margin of 7%
10.11.2010 10.03.2011
9
Net Profit 200
20%
150
15% 10%
Million TL
100
5%
50
0% 0
-5% -50
-10%
-100
-15%
-150
-20%
-200
-25%
Net Profit
Net profit margin
Net profit decreased by 65% QoQ and is equal to 29m • Net profit margin for Q4 10 is equal to 2% • Net profit for 2010 is equal to 239m TL with a net profit margin of 5%
10.11.2010 10.03.2011
10
Conclusion Main factors affecting ratios in 2010:
Contribution from EYAŞ was limited with 42m TL due to the provisions of Tüpraş for excise tax penalty of 181m TL Electricity segment profit margins were effected negatively from the fast growing supply putting downside pressure on prices Rise in final selling of LPG price due to commodity price and Fx rate, put pressure on demand and as a result increased competition Aygaz closed 2010, with a net cash position of 151m TL
m TL Sales Revenue Gross Profit EBITDA Net Profit Gross Profit Margin EBITDA Margin Net Profit Margin Gas sales (retail) (k ton) Gas sales(wholesale) (k ton) Electricity sales (Gwh)
Q4 08
Q4 09
Q4 10
2009
2010
879 128 83 -168 15% 9% -19%
1.210 124 52 82 10% 4% 7%
1.303 155 79 29 12% 6% 2%
3.761 553 390 315 15% 10% 8%
4.658 501 306 239 11% 7% 5%
254 42 448
266 84 575
265 77 680
1,035 306 2.062
1,041 289 2.761 10.11.2010 10.03.2011
11
2011 prospects 2011 Turkish LPG sales volume is expected to increase Turkish autogas volumes are expected to reach 2,7 million with a growth of 8% YoY Market share increase for all segments is targeted Entek-AES partnership is expected to result in new investments providing diversification in resources
10.11.2010 10.03.2011
12
Income Statement Summary Q1 09
Q2 09
Q3 09
Q4 09
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
rQ Q310/Q410
Net sales
811
810
955
1,210
1,064
1,063
1,227
1,303
8%
6%
COGS
-644
-680
-823
-1,086
-956
-959
-1,094
-1,148
6%
5%
Gross profit
167
130
132
124
108
104
134
155
25%
16%
Operating profit
117
76
72
27
50
42
69
57
109%
-18%
Profit before tax
31
155
96
92
62
54
130
37
-60%
-72%
Net Profit
16
148
89
59
50
45
115
29
-51%
-75%
EBITDA
142
100
97
52
74
62
91
79
52%
-14%
GP margin
21%
16%
14%
10%
10%
10%
11%
12%
2
1
OP margin
14%
9%
8%
2%
5%
4%
6%
4%
2
-2
PBT margin
4%
19%
10%
8%
6%
5%
11%
3%
-5
-8
NP margin
2%
18%
10%
5%
5%
4%
9%
2%
-3
-7
EBITDA margin
17%
12%
10%
4%
7%
6%
7%
6%
2
1
(million TL)
10.11.2010 10.03.2011
13
Balance Sheet Summary 07
08
3M 09
6M 09
9M 09
09
3M 10
6M 10
9M 10
10
rY %
97
405
232
236
244
408
302
246
302
262
-36%
261
264
327
313
344
337
280
295
326
265
-21%
120
84
116
106
120
81
148
154
127
159
78%
Participations Prop. Plant & Equipment
1,060
944
895
978
1,024
1,007
1,007
1,081
1,136
1,180
17%
710
672
692
708
710
711
693
687
680
475
-33%
Financial Debt
(327)
(448)
(455)
(363)
(378)
(435)
(198)
(199)
(173)
Trade Payables
223
314
162
178
188
168
229
233
239
300
79%
Total Equity
1,418
1,474
1,468
1,619
1,669
1,757
1,797
1,812
1,927
2,014
15%
Total Assets Fin.Debt/ Tot. Assets Fin.Debt/ Tot.Equity
2,294
2,465
2,348
2,414
2,502
2,604
2,510
2,523
2,631
2,804
7%
14%
18%
19%
15%
15%
17%
8%
8%
7%
4%
-13
23%
30%
31%
22%
23%
25%
11%
11%
9%
6%
-20
Net Cash (Debt)
(230)
(42)
(223)
(127)
(134)
(28)
105
47
129
151 -649%
Working Capital
159
34
281
241
276
258
199
216
214
124
(million TL) Cash & Cash Equivalents Trade Receivables Inventories
(111) -74%
-52%
10.11.2010 10.03.2011
14
Contacts [email protected] Gökhan Tezel, CFO E-mail: [email protected] Phone: +90 212 354 1733 Mehmet Özkan, Finance Manager E-mail: [email protected] Phone: +90 212 354 1657 Selin Sanver, Investor Relations E-mail: [email protected] Phone: +90 212 354 1659 www.aygaz.com.tr 10.11.2010 10.03.2011
15
Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect the company management’s current views with respect to certain future events. Although it is believed that the expectations reflected in these statements are reasonable, they may be affected by a variety of variables and changes in underlying assumptions that could cause actual results to differ materially. Neither Aygaz nor any of its directors, managers or employees nor any other person shall have any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this presentation. All financials are consolidated figures and all Aygaz labelled operational data includes AYGAZ Group figures (Aygaz and Mogaz) unless otherwise stated.
10.11.2010 10.03.2011
16
