Bangkok Bank
Bangkok Bank Buy (16E TP Bt190.00)
Earnings Review
Close Bt170.00
Banking April 20, 2016
Beat forecast/Below forecast/In line
1Q16 earnings in line Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
18.720
20.424
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐0.2%
‐0.4%
Reuters / Bloomberg
BBL.BK/BBL TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
1,908.84
Par (Bt)
10.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
325.00/9,296.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
25.00/30.47
52 week High / Low (Bt)
190.50/142.50
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
4,412.00
NVDR (%)
33.51
Estimated free float (%)
97.47
Beta
0.89
URL
www.bangkokbank.com
CGR
Cheap valuation and healthy balance sheet remain key appeals We maintain a Buy rating for BBL as we see its cheap valuation (with its current P/BV below the ‐1.5SD level, close to the low level during the crisis in 2009) and its healthiest balance sheet compared to peers remaining the bank’s main appeals. We also view that BBL will be in a better position to withstand the macro headwinds. Note that BBL’s dividend for 2H15 was at Bt4.50/share, with the XD date on 21 Apr‐16. 1Q16 net profit in line with our estimate but below the street estimate BBL’s 1Q16 net profit (NP) of Bt8.3bn (‐12% YoY, +8% QoQ) was quite in line with our forecast of Bt8.0bn, but 7% below the consensus estimate of Bt8.9bn. 1Q16 net profit stood at Bt8.3bn (‐12% YoY, +8% QoQ) The main reason for the NP drop YoY was a much higher provision on weaker asset quality. Meanwhile, the higher extra gain QoQ (~Bt1.6bn in 1Q16 vs. ~Bt1.4bn in 4Q15) was partly responsible for the higher NP QoQ. Moreover, NIM improvement by 4 bps QoQ and almost 20 bps YoY to 2.37% was the main bright spot that boosted core earnings thanks to the much lower funding costs from the benefits of deposit re‐pricing. Loans grew modestly by 5.7% YoY and 0.3% QoQ. Set full provision for contingencies of the TTV case BBL moved ahead to set a full provision for contingencies for the case of granting a letter of guarantee (L/G) of ~Bt1.64bn for the Thai TV (TTV) case in other expense items in 1Q16 despite the fact that the L/G is still not classified as NPLs yet. Moreover, the TTV case should still be prolonged in the court process for a certain period of time. This was partially responsible for the hike in its cost to income both YoY and QoQ. Asset quality weakened QoQ on the weak macro front The bank’s NPLs for 1Q16 increased 10% QoQ to 2.9% of loans from 2.8% as a result of the weak macro recovery. Note that BBL estimates that its NPL ratio could possibly rise to 3.2‐3.3% at end‐16 but this should be manageable by the bank given its more proactive NPL control process and solid reserve position. Its reserve‐to‐NPL ratio in 1Q16 was lower QoQ to 174% from 185% in 4Q15, while the reserve to the BoT’s minimum required reserve dropped to 208% from 214% in 4Q15. However, these ratios remained the healthiest vs. peers. Financials and Valuation
Anti‐corruption
Level 4 (Certified)
Prapharas Nonthapiboon Analyst, no 17836 [email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5872
FY Ended 31 Dec PPOP (Btmn) Provision (Btmn) Net Profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) EPS Growth (%) Book value (Bt) Dividend (Bt)
2014 34,616 8,687 36,332 19.03 1% 169.47 6.50
2015 35,680 14,654 34,181 17.91 ‐6% 189.56 6.50
2016E 38,345 14,129 35,671 18.69 4% 196.90 6.50
2017E 41,088 12,363 38,835 20.34 9% 211.38 6.71
2018E 46,092 12,013 43,855 22.97 13% 228.28 6.89
FY Ended 31 Dec PER (X) PBV (X) Div. Yield (%) ROE (%)
2014 8.93 1.00 3.82 12%
2015 9.49 0.90 3.82 10%
2016E 9.10 0.86 3.82 10%
2017E 8.36 0.80 3.95 10%
2018E 7.40 0.74 4.05 10%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
Figure 1: 1Q16 earnings results Statement of comprehensive income (Btmn) Fiscal Year-Ended Dec.
1Q15
Net Interest Income
14,235
4Q15 15,617
1Q16
% YoY % QoQ
16,033
13%
3%
2015 57,510
2016E
% YoY % 1Q to 16E
59,933
4%
27%
Non Interest Income
10,813
10,778
10,672
-1%
-1%
45,218
45,947
2%
23%
Operating Income
25,048
26,396
26,706
7%
1%
102,728
105,881
3%
25%
Operating Expenses
10,376
12,132
12,856
24%
6%
45,045
47,150
5%
27%
Operating Profit-pre tax
11,936
11,701
11,236
-6%
-4%
44,310
47,042
6%
24%
Provision Expenses (Reversal)
2,980
3,880
3,644
22%
-6%
14,654
14,129
-4%
26%
Tax expenses (Reversal)
2,235
2,642
1,828
-18%
-31%
8,630
8,697
1%
21%
Minority Interest
(50)
(60)
(60)
NM
NM
NM
26%
-12%
8%
34,181
35,671
4%
23%
9,408
-3%
4%
35,680
38,345
7%
25%
4.36
-12%
8%
17.91
18.69
4%
23%
Net Profit
9,407
7,681
8,317
PPOP-post tax
9,700
9,058
4.93
4.02
EPS (Bt)
Key Statistics & Ratios
1Q15
Gross NPLs (Btmn)
47,473
Gross NPLs/Loans Loan Loss Reserve/NPLs
4Q15 56,226
(220)
1Q16
2015
61,841
56,226
(233)
2016E 65,720
2.20%
2.80%
2.90%
2.80%
3.01%
189.9%
185.3%
174.4%
185.3%
175.0%
Tier I to Risk Assets
15.2%
15.8%
15.7%
15.8%
16.1%
C apital Adequacy Ratio
17.4%
17.9%
17.7%
17.9%
18.2%
Loan to Deposit Ratio
83.8%
89.4%
87.2%
89.4%
91.4%
Loan to Deposit & Borrowing
78.6%
83.8%
82.1%
83.8%
85.9%
Provision to loans
0.67%
0.83%
0.78%
0.78%
0.72% 44.5%
C ost to Income
41.4%
46.0%
48.1%
43.8%
Non Interest Inc./Total Income
43.2%
40.8%
40.0%
44.0%
43.4%
Net Interest Margin (NIM)
2.18%
2.33%
2.37%
2.16%
2.18%
Tax rate (Reversal)
19.1%
25.4%
17.9%
20.1%
20.0%
Loan Growth YoY
1.6%
4.9%
5.7%
4.9%
5.0%
Loan Growth QoQ
-0.4%
3.3%
0.3%
Source: KTZMICO Research
Figure 2: BBL's P/BV band and sensitivity of market prices based on P/BV at different standard deviation levels 2016E
(X)
PBV (x) Implied market
1.8 +2 S.D.
+2.0SD
1.61
317
96
+1 S.D.
+1.5SD
1.51
297
83
+0.5 S.D.
+1.0SD
1.40
276
71
+0.5SD
1.30
256
58
Average
1.20
236
46
-2 S.D.
-0.5SD
1.09
215
33
-2.5S.D.
-1.0SD
0.99
195
20
-1.5SD
0.89
175
8
-2.0SD
0.78
154
-5
-2.5SD
0.68
134
-17
1.4 Avg.
1.0
-0.5 S.D. -1 S.D. -1.5 S.D.
0.8
to current price (%)
+1.5 S.D.
1.6
1.2
Upside/ Downside
price (Bt)
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Apr-16
Jul-15
Jan-14
Oct-14
Apr-13
Jul-12
Oct-11
Jan-11
Jul-09
Apr-10
Oct-08
Jan-08
Apr-07
Jul-06
Oct-05
Jan-05
0.6
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
Figure 3: BBL's PER band and sensitivity of market prices based on PER at different standard deviation levels 2016E
(X) 14.0
PER (x) Implied market
+2 S.D.
13.0
+1.5 S.D.
12.0 11.0 10.0 9.0
-1 S.D. -1.5 S.D.
+2.0SD
13.2
246
52
+0.5 S.D.
+1.5SD
12.5
233
44
+1.0SD
11.8
220
36
+0.5SD
11.1
208
28
Average
10.4
195
20 12
-2 S.D.
8.0
to current price (%)
+1 S.D. Avg. -0.5 S.D.
Upside/ Downside
price (Bt)
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Apr-16
Jul-15
-19
Oct-14
-11
131
Jan-14
144
7.0
Apr-13
7.7
-2.5SD
Jul-12
-2.0SD
Oct-11
-3
Jan-11
156
Jul-09
8.4
Apr-10
-1.5SD Oct-08
4
5.0
Jan-08
169
Apr-07
182
9.1
Jul-06
9.7
-1.0SD Oct-05
-0.5SD
6.0
Jan-05
7.0
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investment in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investor should consider risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, PLE, TPOLY, BIGC, BJC. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of TPBI. Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
Earnings Review
Close Bt170.00
Banking April 20, 2016
Beat forecast/Below forecast/In line
1Q16 earnings in line Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
18.720
20.424
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐0.2%
‐0.4%
Reuters / Bloomberg
BBL.BK/BBL TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
1,908.84
Par (Bt)
10.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
325.00/9,296.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
25.00/30.47
52 week High / Low (Bt)
190.50/142.50
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
4,412.00
NVDR (%)
33.51
Estimated free float (%)
97.47
Beta
0.89
URL
www.bangkokbank.com
CGR
Cheap valuation and healthy balance sheet remain key appeals We maintain a Buy rating for BBL as we see its cheap valuation (with its current P/BV below the ‐1.5SD level, close to the low level during the crisis in 2009) and its healthiest balance sheet compared to peers remaining the bank’s main appeals. We also view that BBL will be in a better position to withstand the macro headwinds. Note that BBL’s dividend for 2H15 was at Bt4.50/share, with the XD date on 21 Apr‐16. 1Q16 net profit in line with our estimate but below the street estimate BBL’s 1Q16 net profit (NP) of Bt8.3bn (‐12% YoY, +8% QoQ) was quite in line with our forecast of Bt8.0bn, but 7% below the consensus estimate of Bt8.9bn. 1Q16 net profit stood at Bt8.3bn (‐12% YoY, +8% QoQ) The main reason for the NP drop YoY was a much higher provision on weaker asset quality. Meanwhile, the higher extra gain QoQ (~Bt1.6bn in 1Q16 vs. ~Bt1.4bn in 4Q15) was partly responsible for the higher NP QoQ. Moreover, NIM improvement by 4 bps QoQ and almost 20 bps YoY to 2.37% was the main bright spot that boosted core earnings thanks to the much lower funding costs from the benefits of deposit re‐pricing. Loans grew modestly by 5.7% YoY and 0.3% QoQ. Set full provision for contingencies of the TTV case BBL moved ahead to set a full provision for contingencies for the case of granting a letter of guarantee (L/G) of ~Bt1.64bn for the Thai TV (TTV) case in other expense items in 1Q16 despite the fact that the L/G is still not classified as NPLs yet. Moreover, the TTV case should still be prolonged in the court process for a certain period of time. This was partially responsible for the hike in its cost to income both YoY and QoQ. Asset quality weakened QoQ on the weak macro front The bank’s NPLs for 1Q16 increased 10% QoQ to 2.9% of loans from 2.8% as a result of the weak macro recovery. Note that BBL estimates that its NPL ratio could possibly rise to 3.2‐3.3% at end‐16 but this should be manageable by the bank given its more proactive NPL control process and solid reserve position. Its reserve‐to‐NPL ratio in 1Q16 was lower QoQ to 174% from 185% in 4Q15, while the reserve to the BoT’s minimum required reserve dropped to 208% from 214% in 4Q15. However, these ratios remained the healthiest vs. peers. Financials and Valuation
Anti‐corruption
Level 4 (Certified)
Prapharas Nonthapiboon Analyst, no 17836 [email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5872
FY Ended 31 Dec PPOP (Btmn) Provision (Btmn) Net Profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) EPS Growth (%) Book value (Bt) Dividend (Bt)
2014 34,616 8,687 36,332 19.03 1% 169.47 6.50
2015 35,680 14,654 34,181 17.91 ‐6% 189.56 6.50
2016E 38,345 14,129 35,671 18.69 4% 196.90 6.50
2017E 41,088 12,363 38,835 20.34 9% 211.38 6.71
2018E 46,092 12,013 43,855 22.97 13% 228.28 6.89
FY Ended 31 Dec PER (X) PBV (X) Div. Yield (%) ROE (%)
2014 8.93 1.00 3.82 12%
2015 9.49 0.90 3.82 10%
2016E 9.10 0.86 3.82 10%
2017E 8.36 0.80 3.95 10%
2018E 7.40 0.74 4.05 10%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
Figure 1: 1Q16 earnings results Statement of comprehensive income (Btmn) Fiscal Year-Ended Dec.
1Q15
Net Interest Income
14,235
4Q15 15,617
1Q16
% YoY % QoQ
16,033
13%
3%
2015 57,510
2016E
% YoY % 1Q to 16E
59,933
4%
27%
Non Interest Income
10,813
10,778
10,672
-1%
-1%
45,218
45,947
2%
23%
Operating Income
25,048
26,396
26,706
7%
1%
102,728
105,881
3%
25%
Operating Expenses
10,376
12,132
12,856
24%
6%
45,045
47,150
5%
27%
Operating Profit-pre tax
11,936
11,701
11,236
-6%
-4%
44,310
47,042
6%
24%
Provision Expenses (Reversal)
2,980
3,880
3,644
22%
-6%
14,654
14,129
-4%
26%
Tax expenses (Reversal)
2,235
2,642
1,828
-18%
-31%
8,630
8,697
1%
21%
Minority Interest
(50)
(60)
(60)
NM
NM
NM
26%
-12%
8%
34,181
35,671
4%
23%
9,408
-3%
4%
35,680
38,345
7%
25%
4.36
-12%
8%
17.91
18.69
4%
23%
Net Profit
9,407
7,681
8,317
PPOP-post tax
9,700
9,058
4.93
4.02
EPS (Bt)
Key Statistics & Ratios
1Q15
Gross NPLs (Btmn)
47,473
Gross NPLs/Loans Loan Loss Reserve/NPLs
4Q15 56,226
(220)
1Q16
2015
61,841
56,226
(233)
2016E 65,720
2.20%
2.80%
2.90%
2.80%
3.01%
189.9%
185.3%
174.4%
185.3%
175.0%
Tier I to Risk Assets
15.2%
15.8%
15.7%
15.8%
16.1%
C apital Adequacy Ratio
17.4%
17.9%
17.7%
17.9%
18.2%
Loan to Deposit Ratio
83.8%
89.4%
87.2%
89.4%
91.4%
Loan to Deposit & Borrowing
78.6%
83.8%
82.1%
83.8%
85.9%
Provision to loans
0.67%
0.83%
0.78%
0.78%
0.72% 44.5%
C ost to Income
41.4%
46.0%
48.1%
43.8%
Non Interest Inc./Total Income
43.2%
40.8%
40.0%
44.0%
43.4%
Net Interest Margin (NIM)
2.18%
2.33%
2.37%
2.16%
2.18%
Tax rate (Reversal)
19.1%
25.4%
17.9%
20.1%
20.0%
Loan Growth YoY
1.6%
4.9%
5.7%
4.9%
5.0%
Loan Growth QoQ
-0.4%
3.3%
0.3%
Source: KTZMICO Research
Figure 2: BBL's P/BV band and sensitivity of market prices based on P/BV at different standard deviation levels 2016E
(X)
PBV (x) Implied market
1.8 +2 S.D.
+2.0SD
1.61
317
96
+1 S.D.
+1.5SD
1.51
297
83
+0.5 S.D.
+1.0SD
1.40
276
71
+0.5SD
1.30
256
58
Average
1.20
236
46
-2 S.D.
-0.5SD
1.09
215
33
-2.5S.D.
-1.0SD
0.99
195
20
-1.5SD
0.89
175
8
-2.0SD
0.78
154
-5
-2.5SD
0.68
134
-17
1.4 Avg.
1.0
-0.5 S.D. -1 S.D. -1.5 S.D.
0.8
to current price (%)
+1.5 S.D.
1.6
1.2
Upside/ Downside
price (Bt)
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Apr-16
Jul-15
Jan-14
Oct-14
Apr-13
Jul-12
Oct-11
Jan-11
Jul-09
Apr-10
Oct-08
Jan-08
Apr-07
Jul-06
Oct-05
Jan-05
0.6
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
Figure 3: BBL's PER band and sensitivity of market prices based on PER at different standard deviation levels 2016E
(X) 14.0
PER (x) Implied market
+2 S.D.
13.0
+1.5 S.D.
12.0 11.0 10.0 9.0
-1 S.D. -1.5 S.D.
+2.0SD
13.2
246
52
+0.5 S.D.
+1.5SD
12.5
233
44
+1.0SD
11.8
220
36
+0.5SD
11.1
208
28
Average
10.4
195
20 12
-2 S.D.
8.0
to current price (%)
+1 S.D. Avg. -0.5 S.D.
Upside/ Downside
price (Bt)
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Apr-16
Jul-15
-19
Oct-14
-11
131
Jan-14
144
7.0
Apr-13
7.7
-2.5SD
Jul-12
-2.0SD
Oct-11
-3
Jan-11
156
Jul-09
8.4
Apr-10
-1.5SD Oct-08
4
5.0
Jan-08
169
Apr-07
182
9.1
Jul-06
9.7
-1.0SD Oct-05
-0.5SD
6.0
Jan-05
7.0
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investment in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investor should consider risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, PLE, TPOLY, BIGC, BJC. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of TPBI. Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
