Basingstoke town - Basingstoke and Deane Borough Council
New homes for your area?
Community fact pack for the Basingstoke town area and Chineham
5719_1010
Fact pack covers: Brighton Hill North, Brighton Hill South, Brookvale and Kings Furlong, Buckskin, Chineham, Eastrop, Grove, Hatch Warren and Beggarwood, Kempshott, Norden, Popley East, Popley Fields, Popley West, Rooksdown, South Ham, Taylors Farm/Sherfield Park and Winklebury
Give us your views by Friday 14 January 2011 at www.basingstoke.gov.uk/go/newhomes
Basingstoke town
The population for Basingstoke Town including Chineham stood at 90,000 at the 2001 Census, the forecast population for 2010 is around 97,000 The number of new homes completed in the period 2006 to 2010 totalled 3,761 dwellings for Basingstoke Town including Chineham Average household size in the borough fell from 2.64 persons to 2.45 persons during the period 1991 to 2001 As at August 2010, there are 6,189 households on the borough housing register and 84% of these households have some level of housing 'need' as identified by the council's points system Between 80% and 90% of housing register applicants want to live in Basingstoke town
The following data profiles the social and economic characteristics of the town area of Basingstoke. It gives background information on a number of local socio-demographic indicators including recent population growth, age breakdown, recent housing development, recent household growth and data on employment levels, the housing register, and levels of deprivation. This pack is one of a series covering the whole Basingstoke and Deane area, designed to provide an overall community profile to support the borough council’s consultation on ‘New Homes for Your Area – The Big Question’. 1
The Basingstoke town area includes the wards of: Basingstoke town wards Brighton Hill North Kempshott Brighton Hill South Norden Brookvale and Kings Furlong Popley East Buckskin Popley West Chineham Rooksdown Eastrop South Ham Grove Winklebury Hatch Warren and Beggarwood
1
And includes the areas of Sherfield Park/Taylor’s Farm and Popley Fields
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Population, age profile and population growth
The population of Basingstoke town stood at around 90,000 at the time of the 2001 Census.
Wards 2001: number of people aged
148
75 and over 132
5,123
267
284
5,763
1,025
317
304
4,820
1,715
954
282
233
5,326
656
2,925
1,438
205
154
7,003
427
246
756
850
181
179
2,794
268
515
478
1,628
839
259
283
4,270
Kempshott
295 675 331
815 1325 933
622 773 663
1,745 3,483 1,728
1,524 1,367 2,496
484 122 694
329 57 396
5,814 7,802 7,241
Norden
576
1,236
921
2,565
1,668
643
557
8,166
Popley East
477
933
681
1,737
1,205
243
134
5,410
Popley West
283
549
414
1,168
926
239
171
3,750
Rooksdown
109
119
165
646
136
20
21
1,216
South Ham
437
916
765
2,204
1,579
890
658
7,449
Winklebury
445
1057
685
2,059
1,888
560
395
7,089
Total 2001
6,247
13,215
9,608
30,134
19,991
5,554
4,287
89,036
0-4
5 to 15
16 -24
25-44
45-64
65-74
Brighton Hill North
399
820
634
1,979
1,011
Brighton Hill South Brookvale and Kings Furlong
428
951
680
2,068
1,085
357
534
555
1,728
Buckskin
459
1,013
670
Chineham
553
1,072
East Woodhay
155
Eastrop Grove Hatch Warren and Beggarwood
Currently (as at 2010) 2 the forecast population stands at 97,000 – a ward level age profile is shown in the table below.
Wards 2010: number of people aged Brighton Hill North Brighton Hill South Brookvale and Kings Furlong
233 324
75 and over 180 270
5,245 5,287
1,303
519
597
6,144
2,118 2,767 1,932 1,622 3,017 1,671 2,669 1,760 1,535 1,152 2,130 1,519
1,436 2,202 1,084 1,640 2,227 2,455 1,814 1,274 1,059 658 2,012 1,666
459 474 441 575 311 725 651 422 372 193 819 586
330 364 467 465 268 438 607 316 386 159 1,023 521
6,914 8,551 5,634 6,008 9,052 7,252 8,673 5,787 4,879 3,120 8,257 6,070
29,149
23,252
7,104
6,391
96,873
0 to 4
5 to 15
16 - 24
25 - 44
45 - 64
65 -74
392 388
778 795
709 676
1,705 1,654
1,245 1,177
452
643
730
1,898
Kempshott Norden Popley East Popley West Rooksdown South Ham Winklebury
613 673 354 284 803 327 605 467 420 280 452 329
966 1,162 549 744 1,448 952 1,210 844 622 394 973 787
994 911 804 680 976 682 1,113 699 488 282 847 662
Totals 2010
6,839
12,867
11,253
Buckskin Chineham Eastrop Grove Hatch Warren and Beggarwood
Total
Total
The population is forecast to be just over 102,000 by 2016.
2
The source for 2010 and 2016 is Hampshire County Council Small Area Population Forecasts (2009-based) http://www3.hants.gov.uk/planning/factsandfigures/population-statistics/small-area-pop-stats.htm
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Wards 2016: number of people aged
0 to 4
5 to 15
16 to 24
25 to 44
45 to 64
65 to 74
75 plus
Total
Brighton Hill North
339
701
681
1,637
1,312
316
266
5,253
Brighton Hill South
329
705
623
1,523
1,194
378
297
5,050
Brookvale and Kings Furlong
422
684
714
1,822
1,375
541
756
6,313
Buckskin
579
1,046
883
2,065
1,475
478
384
6,909
Chineham
586
1,161
943
2,831
2,388
727
552
9,192
Eastrop
387
638
838
2,171
1,188
510
616
6,350
Grove
280
723
642
1,556
1,602
696
575
6,076
Hatch Warren and Beggarwood
619
1,385
944
2,722
2,266
457
380
8,773
Kempshott
287
860
650
1,519
2,247
981
587
7,131
Norden
630
1,263
1,044
2,777
2,017
675
634
9,037
Popley East
537
962
749
2,041
1,357
570
449
6,667
Popley West
615
1,030
611
2,201
1,506
539
596
7,096
Rooksdown
332
646
396
1,653
1,166
378
334
4,907
South Ham
431
871
805
1,974
2,059
753
1,060
7,954
Winklebury
305
696
609
1,365
1,617
664
614
5,866
Total 2016
6,678
13,371
11,132
29,857
24,769
8,663
8,100
102,574
From 2001, and forecast from 2010 to 2016, there is a significant increase in the number of people aged 45 to 64, and people over the age of 65. This can be seen on the graph below. 35,000
2001 2010
Basingstoke town wards: population 2001, 2010, 2016 Number of people in each age group
2016
30,134 29,149 29,857
30,000
24,769
Number of people ..
25,000
23,252
19,991
20,000
15,000
13,215
12,867 13,371 11,253 11,132 9,608
10,000 6,247
6,839
8,663
8,100
7,104 6,678
6,391 5,554 4,287
5,000
0 0-4
5 to 15
16 -24
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25-44
45-64
65-74
75 and over
Population changes and housing The following sets out the main population trends which are relevant to consider. Over the past decade, births within Basingstoke and Deane have increased from about 1,800 per annum to 2,100 in 2008/09, while deaths have remained relatively stable between 1,100 and 1,200 per annum. The difference between the level of births and the level of deaths (currently about 900 people per annum in the Borough) is referred to as “natural change”. So using this trend as a starting point, we would have 900 additional people to accommodate every year. For at least half a century, people have been changing their living patterns to the extent that the average size of a household (average number of people living in a home) has continued to decline, both nationally and locally. Between 1951 and 2001, the average household size within Hampshire decreased from 3.23 persons to 2.39 – one additional home for every four existing homes was needed to house the same population – without any allowance for natural change or migration. Likewise, within Basingstoke and Deane, the average household size fell from 2.64 persons to 2.45 in the decade from 1991 to 2001. Within just 10 years this reduction resulted in the formation of 4,265 additional households in the Borough. When combined with natural change, this means that a total of 7,300 extra households were created within the Borough without counting any net inmigration (i.e. people moving into the borough).
Housing growth The following table shows how housing stock has changed in the borough over the recent past. The source is Hampshire County Council Small Area Population Forecasts (2006 and 2009 based) 3 .
Dwelling stock by area: 2006 and 2010 Homes in Basingstoke and Deane 2006
2010
Change in dwelling stock 2006-2010
South East
1,440
1,470
30
East
3,449
3,569
120
North East
2,304
2,514
210
North & Tadley
7,570
7,681
111
North & Kingsclere
2,136
2,209
73
North West
2,840
2,902
62
South West
2,984
3,140
156
South & Overton
2,164
2,335
171
Oakley & Deane
2,234
2,256
22
940
961
21
Basingstoke town
38,923
42,684
3,761
Total
66,984
71,721
4,737
North of Basingstoke town
3
Dwellings supply information includes all large and small sites with planning permission or allocated in Local Plans at 1st April 2009 based on phasing agreed with district councils.
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House prices & affordability 4
Following a down turn in house prices in 2008/9, house prices in the borough have increased once more. The least expensive (lower quartile) homes/house prices are just over £160,000 (£163,250) having risen from £84,961 (1st quarter 2000) over the last decade. 200,000
Lower level house prices (£) Basingstoke and Deane 1996 - 2010 (CLG live tables)
House price (£)...
150,000
100,000
50,000
0 1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
England
2001
2002
South East
2003
2004
Hampshire
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Basingstoke and Deane
Average (median) house prices in Basingstoke and Deane stand at around £210,000 (1st quarter 2010) and have increased from £114,000 (1st quarter 2000) in the last decade. 250,000
Average (median) house prices (£) Basingstoke and Deane 1996 - 2010 (CLG live tables)
House price (£)....
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0 1996
1997
1998
1999
England
2000
2001
2002
South East
4
2003
2004
Hampshire
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Basingstoke and Deane
Data for borough level only. House price data relates to 2010 (Quarter 1). Average is defined as median; “Lower” house prices and income are lower quartile. Data is taken from CLG Live Tables (582 & 583) at: http://www.communities.gov.uk/housing/housingresearch/housingstatistics/housingstatisticsby/housingmarket/l ivetables/
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House prices in the borough are, on average, slightly lower than those for neighbouring districts however, housing affordability remains an issue and home ownership is financially out of reach for many people. Essentially, the “house price to income ratio” 5 for the borough, indicates that on average across the borough, even lower quartile (the lowest 25%) house prices are as much as seven times higher than the earnings of those people paid a lower quartile wage. This has increased from a ratio of 4.8 times a decade ago. This ratio can be used as a general indicator of affordability and the lower quartile house price gives an entry price to owner occupation. The median house price to income ratio has increased from 4.5 to 6.5 over the last decade – average house prices are therefore 6.5 times higher than average earnings levels locally.
10.00
Main graph: ratio of lower house prices to lower income Inset: average house prices to average income Basingstoke and Deane Source: CLG live tables
9.00
7.00
6.00
5.00 10.00 Ratio of house prices to income.....
Ratio of house prices to income....
8.00
4.00
3.00
2.00 lower quartile England lower quartile South East
1.00
lower quartile Hampshire
9.00 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00
average England
3.00
average South East
2.00
average Hampshire
1.00
average Basingstoke and Deane
0.00
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
lower quartile Basingstoke and Deane
0.00 1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
5
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Data for borough level only. Affordability data relates to 2009. Income is taken from Annual Survey of Hours and Earning (ASHE) and is based on full time workplace based earnings. Data taken from CLG live tables (576 & 577) at: http://www.communities.gov.uk/housing/housingresearch/housingstatistics/housingstatisticsby/housingmarket/l ivetables/
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Affordable Housing needs Increase in the housing register:
The housing register overall has increased by 20% over the four year period 2006-2010 - the increase is expected to continue, particularly in the current economic climate. As at August 2010 there are 6,189 households on the housing register. There has been an increase in the percentage of households on the register with identified housing ‘need’ – increasing from around 60% in 2002, to 70% in 2008. Currently (August 2010), 84% (5,200) of households on the register have some level of housing ‘need’ as identified by the borough council’s points system. Number of households on the housing register 2006 - 2010 Basingstoke and Deane
Number of households on the housing register .....
7000
6,200 households (84% are in housing need based on the points system)
6000 5,100 households 5000
4000 Review of the housing register temporarily reduces the numbers on it due to nonresponses
3000
2000
1000
0 March / April 2006
March / April 2007
March / April 2008
March / April 2009
March / April 2010
01/07/2010
01/08/2010
Profile of the housing register
There are more than 800 households in the rural area on the housing register. Between 80% and 90% of housing register applicants want to live in Basingstoke town. In Basingstoke town, around 44% of housing register applicants are single, and 10 - 12% couples. Around 45% are families. In the rural area of the borough, there is a higher percentage of couples (20%) - one third of housing register applicants are single and 45% families. Overall, families tend to be in the higher bands for housing ‘need’. Across the borough, around 10% of applicants on the register are waiting for sheltered accommodation or some other form of other elderly housing provision. The housing register profile shows that there is need for a good mix of different sized accommodation across the borough.
How affordable housing need is met
In the rural area as a whole, existing affordable stock turnover runs at around 4.4% of all stock which equates to around 145 dwellings per year. If any further housing need is to be met then it must be from new build. Over the next five years, the Basingstoke and Deane Rural Housing Study (2009) identified a need for 289 affordable homes per annum in the rural area, and a need of 292 market (private sale) homes per annum. In Basingstoke town, the affordable stock turnover is around 7% to 8%.
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For the past three years, there has been an average of 704 lets from existing affordable stock in the borough (2007/8 – 557; 2008/9 - 706, and 849 lets in 2009/10) – but only 328 on average per year from new build, despite the increase in the housing needs waiting list. Suggested correlations have been identified between the number of affordable homes delivered and the impact on reducing homelessness. Due in part to its success in affordable homes delivery in the past, Basingstoke and Deane has achieved almost a 100% reduction in the number of households becoming homeless and being placed into temporary accommodation - in spite of sustained levels of potential households approaching the council for advice and assistance By contrast some neighbouring districts, which have delivered fewer affordable homes, have seen smaller reductions in homelessness, and where affordable delivery is severely restricted, even increases in the numbers being placed into temporary accommodation. In the current financial climate, and with reductions in Government grant for affordable housing already taking effect, Basingstoke and Deane`s target of 40% affordable homes on larger sites may be at risk, and a sufficient supply of market housing will be increasingly required on site to support the affordable provision.
Housing need from within and outside the borough (“self containment” and “in-migration”)
4.5% of applicants on the housing register are applying for housing from outside the borough – this equates to around 280 households. There are many reasons for this - for example, to be near relatives or to move here for work. However, 98% of households applying to move to the borough are in the lowest 2 bands for housing need. Of those applicants without “local connection”, 60% have no housing need. The Basingstoke and Deane Rural Housing Study (2009) found that of those households planning to move in the next three years, there was a high percentage who wanted to move to somewhere within their own parish (self containment). The table reflects those households who intended to move to either market housing or affordable housing.
Self containment: the Basingstoke and Deane Rural Housing Study 2009 Survey respondents who intend to move within the next three years Parish sub-area
South East East North East North and Tadley North and Kingsclere North West South West South and Overton Oakley and Deane North of Basingstoke town
Total number of respondents who expressed intent to move in the next three years
Of which those who are planning to move within their own sub-area
Percentage self – containment
114 340 199 506 145 136 271 136 190 111
103 236 141 440 135 136 261 128 134 72
90.4% 69.4% 70.9% 87.0% 93.1% 100.0% 96.3% 94.1% 70.5% 64.9%
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Employment, unemployment and deprivation The borough economy
It is estimated that there are around 83,600 6 jobs in the borough. This has increased from 58,000 jobs in the mid 90’s. 83,600 jobs in 2008
90,000 80,000
Number of jobs ...
70,000 60,000 50,000
58,000 jobs in 1995 Total number of employee jobs in Basingstoke and Deane 1995 - 2008 (Annual Business Inquiry)
40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
The “banking, finance, and insurance” and business” and “distribution, hotels and restaurants” sectors are particularly well represented (the former also includes business support). Over the last decade there has been a 35% increase in distribution, hotels and restaurants jobs, a 64% increase in jobs in the finance/IT/business support sector. Overall, the industrial sectoral split is well balanced – a diverse economy, where many employment and industrial sectors can thrive, being one of the borough’s strengths. The local economy therefore potentially provides jobs for people with all skills and qualifications levels.
Public administration, education & health: 15,000 jobs
Manufacturing: 9,000 jobs Construction: 3,600 jobs
The number of jobs by broad industry sector Basingstoke and Deane 2008 (total = 83,600 jobs)
Tourism: 4,600 jobs
Banking, finance and insurance: 22,400 jobs
Distribution, hotels & restaurants: 20,700 jobs
Transport & communications: 4,700 jobs
6
Overall, the borough has relatively high levels of employment, with the employment rate in Basingstoke and Deane standing at 76.4% (compared to the national (GB) average of 70% 7 ).
Data taken from the Annual Business Inquiry 2008
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Unemployment is relatively low – the percentage of Job Seekers Allowance claimants stands at 2.2% 8 compared to the South East regional average of 2.4% and GB average of 3.6%. Overall, in Basingstoke and Deane, 7.8% of the working age population 9 are claiming key out of work benefits 10 . This has risen from around the more typical 5.7% to 6% since early 2008. Despite this increase, the borough rate remains below that for the South East average (9.1%) and the national (GB) average of 12.9%.
Basingstoke town 11
There is a considerable range in Job Seekers Allowance claimant rates across the town area, from 1.3% to 5.1% of the working age population. All the town wards have seen an increase in the percentage of JSA claimants in the recent past (2008 – 2010) as can be seen from the graph below. Job Seekers Allowance Claimant Count Basingstoke town wards (pre-2008) Percentage of the working age population claiming JSA 2004 - 2010
6.0
% of the working age population....
5.0
August 2004 August 2006 August 2008 August 2010
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
W es t R oo ks do w n So ut h H am W in kl eb ur y
st Ea
Po pl ey
Po pl ey
N or de n
ga rw oo d K em ps ho tt
W
ar re n
an d
B eg
G
ro ve
tr op Ea s H at ch
B uc ks ki n C hi ne ha m
B rig ht on H ill B rig N B or ro h th ok to n va H le ill an So d ut K h in gs Fu rlo ng
0.0
The percentage of the working age population claiming key benefits varies from ward to ward. However, all wards have seen an increase in claimant rate over the last decade (since 2000). This is largely due to the increase in JSA rate.
7
Employment rate taken from the Annual Population Survey (April 2009 – March 2010): the percentage of working age people in employment (including self employment) 8 August 2010 9 Working age population defined as all people aged 16-64 10 Key out of work benefits include Job Seekers Allowance, Employment Support Allowance, and Incapacity Benefit. Data relate to February 2010 11 Benefits and JSA data is available for ward boundaries pre-2008
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Percentage of the working age population claiming key benefits Basingstoke town wards (pre-2008) 2000 and 2010
20.0
2000 2010
18.0 16.0
Percentage %
14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0
12
bu ry
am
n
kl e in W
ut h
H
w So
ks do
es t W pl ey
Po
R oo
Ea s
t
n
pl ey Po
N or de
tt
oo eg
B an d
K
ga rw
G
em ps ho
d
e ro v
p Ea st ro
am
n
hi ne h
d
H at ch
W
ar re n
an va le
B ro ok
C
ks ki
rlo Fu
B uc
th K
on
in g
s
H ill
So u
N or th H i ll B rig ht
ht on B r ig
ng
0.0
Across the town, communities may experience varying levels of deprivation 12 and disadvantage in one or more themes. All areas score well in terms of access to services. However, some communities may experience higher levels of deprivation, particularly around their educational attainment, unemployment or lower income levels, crime or a combination of these (“multiple deprivation”). Set in the national context, none of the town wards fall within the bottom 20% of deprived areas in England for multiple deprivation (deprivation combined across a number of themes). However, a small number of neighbourhoods in Basingstoke town do fall within the bottom 10% in a single theme. Further analysis of these themes and areas can be found in the Neighbourhood Renewal Strategy 2006, and 2009 update.
Indices of Deprivation 2007
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Community fact pack for the Basingstoke town area and Chineham
5719_1010
Fact pack covers: Brighton Hill North, Brighton Hill South, Brookvale and Kings Furlong, Buckskin, Chineham, Eastrop, Grove, Hatch Warren and Beggarwood, Kempshott, Norden, Popley East, Popley Fields, Popley West, Rooksdown, South Ham, Taylors Farm/Sherfield Park and Winklebury
Give us your views by Friday 14 January 2011 at www.basingstoke.gov.uk/go/newhomes
Basingstoke town
The population for Basingstoke Town including Chineham stood at 90,000 at the 2001 Census, the forecast population for 2010 is around 97,000 The number of new homes completed in the period 2006 to 2010 totalled 3,761 dwellings for Basingstoke Town including Chineham Average household size in the borough fell from 2.64 persons to 2.45 persons during the period 1991 to 2001 As at August 2010, there are 6,189 households on the borough housing register and 84% of these households have some level of housing 'need' as identified by the council's points system Between 80% and 90% of housing register applicants want to live in Basingstoke town
The following data profiles the social and economic characteristics of the town area of Basingstoke. It gives background information on a number of local socio-demographic indicators including recent population growth, age breakdown, recent housing development, recent household growth and data on employment levels, the housing register, and levels of deprivation. This pack is one of a series covering the whole Basingstoke and Deane area, designed to provide an overall community profile to support the borough council’s consultation on ‘New Homes for Your Area – The Big Question’. 1
The Basingstoke town area includes the wards of: Basingstoke town wards Brighton Hill North Kempshott Brighton Hill South Norden Brookvale and Kings Furlong Popley East Buckskin Popley West Chineham Rooksdown Eastrop South Ham Grove Winklebury Hatch Warren and Beggarwood
1
And includes the areas of Sherfield Park/Taylor’s Farm and Popley Fields
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Population, age profile and population growth
The population of Basingstoke town stood at around 90,000 at the time of the 2001 Census.
Wards 2001: number of people aged
148
75 and over 132
5,123
267
284
5,763
1,025
317
304
4,820
1,715
954
282
233
5,326
656
2,925
1,438
205
154
7,003
427
246
756
850
181
179
2,794
268
515
478
1,628
839
259
283
4,270
Kempshott
295 675 331
815 1325 933
622 773 663
1,745 3,483 1,728
1,524 1,367 2,496
484 122 694
329 57 396
5,814 7,802 7,241
Norden
576
1,236
921
2,565
1,668
643
557
8,166
Popley East
477
933
681
1,737
1,205
243
134
5,410
Popley West
283
549
414
1,168
926
239
171
3,750
Rooksdown
109
119
165
646
136
20
21
1,216
South Ham
437
916
765
2,204
1,579
890
658
7,449
Winklebury
445
1057
685
2,059
1,888
560
395
7,089
Total 2001
6,247
13,215
9,608
30,134
19,991
5,554
4,287
89,036
0-4
5 to 15
16 -24
25-44
45-64
65-74
Brighton Hill North
399
820
634
1,979
1,011
Brighton Hill South Brookvale and Kings Furlong
428
951
680
2,068
1,085
357
534
555
1,728
Buckskin
459
1,013
670
Chineham
553
1,072
East Woodhay
155
Eastrop Grove Hatch Warren and Beggarwood
Currently (as at 2010) 2 the forecast population stands at 97,000 – a ward level age profile is shown in the table below.
Wards 2010: number of people aged Brighton Hill North Brighton Hill South Brookvale and Kings Furlong
233 324
75 and over 180 270
5,245 5,287
1,303
519
597
6,144
2,118 2,767 1,932 1,622 3,017 1,671 2,669 1,760 1,535 1,152 2,130 1,519
1,436 2,202 1,084 1,640 2,227 2,455 1,814 1,274 1,059 658 2,012 1,666
459 474 441 575 311 725 651 422 372 193 819 586
330 364 467 465 268 438 607 316 386 159 1,023 521
6,914 8,551 5,634 6,008 9,052 7,252 8,673 5,787 4,879 3,120 8,257 6,070
29,149
23,252
7,104
6,391
96,873
0 to 4
5 to 15
16 - 24
25 - 44
45 - 64
65 -74
392 388
778 795
709 676
1,705 1,654
1,245 1,177
452
643
730
1,898
Kempshott Norden Popley East Popley West Rooksdown South Ham Winklebury
613 673 354 284 803 327 605 467 420 280 452 329
966 1,162 549 744 1,448 952 1,210 844 622 394 973 787
994 911 804 680 976 682 1,113 699 488 282 847 662
Totals 2010
6,839
12,867
11,253
Buckskin Chineham Eastrop Grove Hatch Warren and Beggarwood
Total
Total
The population is forecast to be just over 102,000 by 2016.
2
The source for 2010 and 2016 is Hampshire County Council Small Area Population Forecasts (2009-based) http://www3.hants.gov.uk/planning/factsandfigures/population-statistics/small-area-pop-stats.htm
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Wards 2016: number of people aged
0 to 4
5 to 15
16 to 24
25 to 44
45 to 64
65 to 74
75 plus
Total
Brighton Hill North
339
701
681
1,637
1,312
316
266
5,253
Brighton Hill South
329
705
623
1,523
1,194
378
297
5,050
Brookvale and Kings Furlong
422
684
714
1,822
1,375
541
756
6,313
Buckskin
579
1,046
883
2,065
1,475
478
384
6,909
Chineham
586
1,161
943
2,831
2,388
727
552
9,192
Eastrop
387
638
838
2,171
1,188
510
616
6,350
Grove
280
723
642
1,556
1,602
696
575
6,076
Hatch Warren and Beggarwood
619
1,385
944
2,722
2,266
457
380
8,773
Kempshott
287
860
650
1,519
2,247
981
587
7,131
Norden
630
1,263
1,044
2,777
2,017
675
634
9,037
Popley East
537
962
749
2,041
1,357
570
449
6,667
Popley West
615
1,030
611
2,201
1,506
539
596
7,096
Rooksdown
332
646
396
1,653
1,166
378
334
4,907
South Ham
431
871
805
1,974
2,059
753
1,060
7,954
Winklebury
305
696
609
1,365
1,617
664
614
5,866
Total 2016
6,678
13,371
11,132
29,857
24,769
8,663
8,100
102,574
From 2001, and forecast from 2010 to 2016, there is a significant increase in the number of people aged 45 to 64, and people over the age of 65. This can be seen on the graph below. 35,000
2001 2010
Basingstoke town wards: population 2001, 2010, 2016 Number of people in each age group
2016
30,134 29,149 29,857
30,000
24,769
Number of people ..
25,000
23,252
19,991
20,000
15,000
13,215
12,867 13,371 11,253 11,132 9,608
10,000 6,247
6,839
8,663
8,100
7,104 6,678
6,391 5,554 4,287
5,000
0 0-4
5 to 15
16 -24
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25-44
45-64
65-74
75 and over
Population changes and housing The following sets out the main population trends which are relevant to consider. Over the past decade, births within Basingstoke and Deane have increased from about 1,800 per annum to 2,100 in 2008/09, while deaths have remained relatively stable between 1,100 and 1,200 per annum. The difference between the level of births and the level of deaths (currently about 900 people per annum in the Borough) is referred to as “natural change”. So using this trend as a starting point, we would have 900 additional people to accommodate every year. For at least half a century, people have been changing their living patterns to the extent that the average size of a household (average number of people living in a home) has continued to decline, both nationally and locally. Between 1951 and 2001, the average household size within Hampshire decreased from 3.23 persons to 2.39 – one additional home for every four existing homes was needed to house the same population – without any allowance for natural change or migration. Likewise, within Basingstoke and Deane, the average household size fell from 2.64 persons to 2.45 in the decade from 1991 to 2001. Within just 10 years this reduction resulted in the formation of 4,265 additional households in the Borough. When combined with natural change, this means that a total of 7,300 extra households were created within the Borough without counting any net inmigration (i.e. people moving into the borough).
Housing growth The following table shows how housing stock has changed in the borough over the recent past. The source is Hampshire County Council Small Area Population Forecasts (2006 and 2009 based) 3 .
Dwelling stock by area: 2006 and 2010 Homes in Basingstoke and Deane 2006
2010
Change in dwelling stock 2006-2010
South East
1,440
1,470
30
East
3,449
3,569
120
North East
2,304
2,514
210
North & Tadley
7,570
7,681
111
North & Kingsclere
2,136
2,209
73
North West
2,840
2,902
62
South West
2,984
3,140
156
South & Overton
2,164
2,335
171
Oakley & Deane
2,234
2,256
22
940
961
21
Basingstoke town
38,923
42,684
3,761
Total
66,984
71,721
4,737
North of Basingstoke town
3
Dwellings supply information includes all large and small sites with planning permission or allocated in Local Plans at 1st April 2009 based on phasing agreed with district councils.
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House prices & affordability 4
Following a down turn in house prices in 2008/9, house prices in the borough have increased once more. The least expensive (lower quartile) homes/house prices are just over £160,000 (£163,250) having risen from £84,961 (1st quarter 2000) over the last decade. 200,000
Lower level house prices (£) Basingstoke and Deane 1996 - 2010 (CLG live tables)
House price (£)...
150,000
100,000
50,000
0 1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
England
2001
2002
South East
2003
2004
Hampshire
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Basingstoke and Deane
Average (median) house prices in Basingstoke and Deane stand at around £210,000 (1st quarter 2010) and have increased from £114,000 (1st quarter 2000) in the last decade. 250,000
Average (median) house prices (£) Basingstoke and Deane 1996 - 2010 (CLG live tables)
House price (£)....
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0 1996
1997
1998
1999
England
2000
2001
2002
South East
4
2003
2004
Hampshire
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Basingstoke and Deane
Data for borough level only. House price data relates to 2010 (Quarter 1). Average is defined as median; “Lower” house prices and income are lower quartile. Data is taken from CLG Live Tables (582 & 583) at: http://www.communities.gov.uk/housing/housingresearch/housingstatistics/housingstatisticsby/housingmarket/l ivetables/
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House prices in the borough are, on average, slightly lower than those for neighbouring districts however, housing affordability remains an issue and home ownership is financially out of reach for many people. Essentially, the “house price to income ratio” 5 for the borough, indicates that on average across the borough, even lower quartile (the lowest 25%) house prices are as much as seven times higher than the earnings of those people paid a lower quartile wage. This has increased from a ratio of 4.8 times a decade ago. This ratio can be used as a general indicator of affordability and the lower quartile house price gives an entry price to owner occupation. The median house price to income ratio has increased from 4.5 to 6.5 over the last decade – average house prices are therefore 6.5 times higher than average earnings levels locally.
10.00
Main graph: ratio of lower house prices to lower income Inset: average house prices to average income Basingstoke and Deane Source: CLG live tables
9.00
7.00
6.00
5.00 10.00 Ratio of house prices to income.....
Ratio of house prices to income....
8.00
4.00
3.00
2.00 lower quartile England lower quartile South East
1.00
lower quartile Hampshire
9.00 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00
average England
3.00
average South East
2.00
average Hampshire
1.00
average Basingstoke and Deane
0.00
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
lower quartile Basingstoke and Deane
0.00 1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
5
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Data for borough level only. Affordability data relates to 2009. Income is taken from Annual Survey of Hours and Earning (ASHE) and is based on full time workplace based earnings. Data taken from CLG live tables (576 & 577) at: http://www.communities.gov.uk/housing/housingresearch/housingstatistics/housingstatisticsby/housingmarket/l ivetables/
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Affordable Housing needs Increase in the housing register:
The housing register overall has increased by 20% over the four year period 2006-2010 - the increase is expected to continue, particularly in the current economic climate. As at August 2010 there are 6,189 households on the housing register. There has been an increase in the percentage of households on the register with identified housing ‘need’ – increasing from around 60% in 2002, to 70% in 2008. Currently (August 2010), 84% (5,200) of households on the register have some level of housing ‘need’ as identified by the borough council’s points system. Number of households on the housing register 2006 - 2010 Basingstoke and Deane
Number of households on the housing register .....
7000
6,200 households (84% are in housing need based on the points system)
6000 5,100 households 5000
4000 Review of the housing register temporarily reduces the numbers on it due to nonresponses
3000
2000
1000
0 March / April 2006
March / April 2007
March / April 2008
March / April 2009
March / April 2010
01/07/2010
01/08/2010
Profile of the housing register
There are more than 800 households in the rural area on the housing register. Between 80% and 90% of housing register applicants want to live in Basingstoke town. In Basingstoke town, around 44% of housing register applicants are single, and 10 - 12% couples. Around 45% are families. In the rural area of the borough, there is a higher percentage of couples (20%) - one third of housing register applicants are single and 45% families. Overall, families tend to be in the higher bands for housing ‘need’. Across the borough, around 10% of applicants on the register are waiting for sheltered accommodation or some other form of other elderly housing provision. The housing register profile shows that there is need for a good mix of different sized accommodation across the borough.
How affordable housing need is met
In the rural area as a whole, existing affordable stock turnover runs at around 4.4% of all stock which equates to around 145 dwellings per year. If any further housing need is to be met then it must be from new build. Over the next five years, the Basingstoke and Deane Rural Housing Study (2009) identified a need for 289 affordable homes per annum in the rural area, and a need of 292 market (private sale) homes per annum. In Basingstoke town, the affordable stock turnover is around 7% to 8%.
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For the past three years, there has been an average of 704 lets from existing affordable stock in the borough (2007/8 – 557; 2008/9 - 706, and 849 lets in 2009/10) – but only 328 on average per year from new build, despite the increase in the housing needs waiting list. Suggested correlations have been identified between the number of affordable homes delivered and the impact on reducing homelessness. Due in part to its success in affordable homes delivery in the past, Basingstoke and Deane has achieved almost a 100% reduction in the number of households becoming homeless and being placed into temporary accommodation - in spite of sustained levels of potential households approaching the council for advice and assistance By contrast some neighbouring districts, which have delivered fewer affordable homes, have seen smaller reductions in homelessness, and where affordable delivery is severely restricted, even increases in the numbers being placed into temporary accommodation. In the current financial climate, and with reductions in Government grant for affordable housing already taking effect, Basingstoke and Deane`s target of 40% affordable homes on larger sites may be at risk, and a sufficient supply of market housing will be increasingly required on site to support the affordable provision.
Housing need from within and outside the borough (“self containment” and “in-migration”)
4.5% of applicants on the housing register are applying for housing from outside the borough – this equates to around 280 households. There are many reasons for this - for example, to be near relatives or to move here for work. However, 98% of households applying to move to the borough are in the lowest 2 bands for housing need. Of those applicants without “local connection”, 60% have no housing need. The Basingstoke and Deane Rural Housing Study (2009) found that of those households planning to move in the next three years, there was a high percentage who wanted to move to somewhere within their own parish (self containment). The table reflects those households who intended to move to either market housing or affordable housing.
Self containment: the Basingstoke and Deane Rural Housing Study 2009 Survey respondents who intend to move within the next three years Parish sub-area
South East East North East North and Tadley North and Kingsclere North West South West South and Overton Oakley and Deane North of Basingstoke town
Total number of respondents who expressed intent to move in the next three years
Of which those who are planning to move within their own sub-area
Percentage self – containment
114 340 199 506 145 136 271 136 190 111
103 236 141 440 135 136 261 128 134 72
90.4% 69.4% 70.9% 87.0% 93.1% 100.0% 96.3% 94.1% 70.5% 64.9%
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Employment, unemployment and deprivation The borough economy
It is estimated that there are around 83,600 6 jobs in the borough. This has increased from 58,000 jobs in the mid 90’s. 83,600 jobs in 2008
90,000 80,000
Number of jobs ...
70,000 60,000 50,000
58,000 jobs in 1995 Total number of employee jobs in Basingstoke and Deane 1995 - 2008 (Annual Business Inquiry)
40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
The “banking, finance, and insurance” and business” and “distribution, hotels and restaurants” sectors are particularly well represented (the former also includes business support). Over the last decade there has been a 35% increase in distribution, hotels and restaurants jobs, a 64% increase in jobs in the finance/IT/business support sector. Overall, the industrial sectoral split is well balanced – a diverse economy, where many employment and industrial sectors can thrive, being one of the borough’s strengths. The local economy therefore potentially provides jobs for people with all skills and qualifications levels.
Public administration, education & health: 15,000 jobs
Manufacturing: 9,000 jobs Construction: 3,600 jobs
The number of jobs by broad industry sector Basingstoke and Deane 2008 (total = 83,600 jobs)
Tourism: 4,600 jobs
Banking, finance and insurance: 22,400 jobs
Distribution, hotels & restaurants: 20,700 jobs
Transport & communications: 4,700 jobs
6
Overall, the borough has relatively high levels of employment, with the employment rate in Basingstoke and Deane standing at 76.4% (compared to the national (GB) average of 70% 7 ).
Data taken from the Annual Business Inquiry 2008
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Unemployment is relatively low – the percentage of Job Seekers Allowance claimants stands at 2.2% 8 compared to the South East regional average of 2.4% and GB average of 3.6%. Overall, in Basingstoke and Deane, 7.8% of the working age population 9 are claiming key out of work benefits 10 . This has risen from around the more typical 5.7% to 6% since early 2008. Despite this increase, the borough rate remains below that for the South East average (9.1%) and the national (GB) average of 12.9%.
Basingstoke town 11
There is a considerable range in Job Seekers Allowance claimant rates across the town area, from 1.3% to 5.1% of the working age population. All the town wards have seen an increase in the percentage of JSA claimants in the recent past (2008 – 2010) as can be seen from the graph below. Job Seekers Allowance Claimant Count Basingstoke town wards (pre-2008) Percentage of the working age population claiming JSA 2004 - 2010
6.0
% of the working age population....
5.0
August 2004 August 2006 August 2008 August 2010
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
W es t R oo ks do w n So ut h H am W in kl eb ur y
st Ea
Po pl ey
Po pl ey
N or de n
ga rw oo d K em ps ho tt
W
ar re n
an d
B eg
G
ro ve
tr op Ea s H at ch
B uc ks ki n C hi ne ha m
B rig ht on H ill B rig N B or ro h th ok to n va H le ill an So d ut K h in gs Fu rlo ng
0.0
The percentage of the working age population claiming key benefits varies from ward to ward. However, all wards have seen an increase in claimant rate over the last decade (since 2000). This is largely due to the increase in JSA rate.
7
Employment rate taken from the Annual Population Survey (April 2009 – March 2010): the percentage of working age people in employment (including self employment) 8 August 2010 9 Working age population defined as all people aged 16-64 10 Key out of work benefits include Job Seekers Allowance, Employment Support Allowance, and Incapacity Benefit. Data relate to February 2010 11 Benefits and JSA data is available for ward boundaries pre-2008
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Percentage of the working age population claiming key benefits Basingstoke town wards (pre-2008) 2000 and 2010
20.0
2000 2010
18.0 16.0
Percentage %
14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0
12
bu ry
am
n
kl e in W
ut h
H
w So
ks do
es t W pl ey
Po
R oo
Ea s
t
n
pl ey Po
N or de
tt
oo eg
B an d
K
ga rw
G
em ps ho
d
e ro v
p Ea st ro
am
n
hi ne h
d
H at ch
W
ar re n
an va le
B ro ok
C
ks ki
rlo Fu
B uc
th K
on
in g
s
H ill
So u
N or th H i ll B rig ht
ht on B r ig
ng
0.0
Across the town, communities may experience varying levels of deprivation 12 and disadvantage in one or more themes. All areas score well in terms of access to services. However, some communities may experience higher levels of deprivation, particularly around their educational attainment, unemployment or lower income levels, crime or a combination of these (“multiple deprivation”). Set in the national context, none of the town wards fall within the bottom 20% of deprived areas in England for multiple deprivation (deprivation combined across a number of themes). However, a small number of neighbourhoods in Basingstoke town do fall within the bottom 10% in a single theme. Further analysis of these themes and areas can be found in the Neighbourhood Renewal Strategy 2006, and 2009 update.
Indices of Deprivation 2007
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