ber 26Sun d a y, Oc tober 27ay, October 26 Sunday, October 27
ber 26Sun d a y, Date and Time 09/12/2013 07:30 09/12/2013 07:30 09/12/2013 13:00 09/13/2013 07:30 09/13/2013 07:30 09/13/2013 07:30
Oc
Event Initial Jobless Claims Continuing Claims Monthly Budget Statement PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM PPI YoY PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY
Period 6-Sep 30-Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug
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FX Trading: The BIS reported that FX trading volumes have increased to an average of $5.3Trillion per day; nearly 33% greater than in 2010! Regional banks accounted for over 20% of this volume, trading more than $1 Trillion in currency each day. Interestingly, this is equivalent to the total daily global volume traded in the late 90s. As for trading performance, the Chinese Yuan reported the greatest increase at $120B/day (up from $34B in 2010), while Yen trading surged by 63%. Ushering in a new era, the Mexican Peso entered the top ten most actively traded currencies.
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JOBS: The US economy added only 169k jobs in August versus predictions of 180k. Furthermore, jobs for July were revised down to 104k from 162k. However, the unemployment rate actually improved, falling to 7.3% from 7.4% in July. How is it possible for the unemployment rate to improve with declining payrolls, you ask? The labor force participation rate fell, thereby shrinking the pool of eligible applicants. Remember, “discouraged workers” aren’t included in the unemployment rate calculation because the BLS says they are “a subset of persons marginally attached to the labor force.” Ergo, more discouragement = better unemployment data!
•
Competitive Advantage: According to the World Economic Forum’s latest global competitiveness report, Switzerland is the most competitive nation in the world, followed by Singapore and Finland. How does the US rank? In fifth place, immediately behind Germany. The UK experienced the most precipitous drop among the major economies, dropping from 2nd place to 10th place due to its massive deficit, burgeoning public debt and abysmal savings rate. On the bright side, beleaguered Greece actually climbed five spots to 91st place, right behind Namibia and Iran.
•
Hoarders: Central bank reserves are paramount to the stability of developing nations. In fact, they are now hoarding over $2.9 Trillion in reserves and hiking rates. The chart below illustrates these stagflationary fears as the EMFCI (comprised of the 20 most traded EM currencies), has declined by almost 8% despite aggressive rate hikes. However, more dollars are needed. Brazil recently announced a $60B swap program to minimize its USD shortage while Indonesia and Japan have agreed to a $12B bilateral swap program. India will begin selling USD to state-owned oil importers.
Prior 323K 2951K -0.10% 2.10% 1.20%
tober 27ay, October 26 Sunday, October 27
Libor Last Price Five day change Libor 1M 0.1819 -0.00016 Libor 2M 0.22446 -0.00076 Libor 3M 0.2564 -0.0031 Cash Markets Fed Funds 0.08 0 TSY Repo O/N 0.06 0.02 Money Markets USD Swap 2 YR 0.616 0.0501 USD Swap 5 YR 1.9125 0.103 USD Swap 10 YR 3.1135 0.1305 Volatility Vix Index 15.77 -1.05 Commodities Copper Futures 325.8 1.4 Gold Futures 1388.6 -26.4 WTI Crude Futures 110.29 1.55 Natural Gas Futures 3.53 -0.088 CRB Index 471.11 -1.88 Equity Indices SPX Futures 1657.8 21.1 Dow Jones Futures 14840 106 Rig Counts Baker Hughes Gas Count 394 14 Baker Hughes Crude Count 1365 -23 Baker Hughes Oil & Gas 1767 -9 Swap Spread Rates USD Swap Spread 2 YR 15.8 -1.06 USD Swap Spread 5 YR 15.25 -1.38 US Treasuries US 10 YR Treasury 2.9305 0.1447 US 30 YR Treasury 3.8603 0.1608
Ken Hogan SVP, Head of FX
Nader Adeeb VP, FX Trading
Bloomberg FXET: CADB SWIFT: CDBKUS44 [email protected] + 713-871-4061 www.cadencebank.com
Oc
Event Initial Jobless Claims Continuing Claims Monthly Budget Statement PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM PPI YoY PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY
Period 6-Sep 30-Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug
•
FX Trading: The BIS reported that FX trading volumes have increased to an average of $5.3Trillion per day; nearly 33% greater than in 2010! Regional banks accounted for over 20% of this volume, trading more than $1 Trillion in currency each day. Interestingly, this is equivalent to the total daily global volume traded in the late 90s. As for trading performance, the Chinese Yuan reported the greatest increase at $120B/day (up from $34B in 2010), while Yen trading surged by 63%. Ushering in a new era, the Mexican Peso entered the top ten most actively traded currencies.
•
JOBS: The US economy added only 169k jobs in August versus predictions of 180k. Furthermore, jobs for July were revised down to 104k from 162k. However, the unemployment rate actually improved, falling to 7.3% from 7.4% in July. How is it possible for the unemployment rate to improve with declining payrolls, you ask? The labor force participation rate fell, thereby shrinking the pool of eligible applicants. Remember, “discouraged workers” aren’t included in the unemployment rate calculation because the BLS says they are “a subset of persons marginally attached to the labor force.” Ergo, more discouragement = better unemployment data!
•
Competitive Advantage: According to the World Economic Forum’s latest global competitiveness report, Switzerland is the most competitive nation in the world, followed by Singapore and Finland. How does the US rank? In fifth place, immediately behind Germany. The UK experienced the most precipitous drop among the major economies, dropping from 2nd place to 10th place due to its massive deficit, burgeoning public debt and abysmal savings rate. On the bright side, beleaguered Greece actually climbed five spots to 91st place, right behind Namibia and Iran.
•
Hoarders: Central bank reserves are paramount to the stability of developing nations. In fact, they are now hoarding over $2.9 Trillion in reserves and hiking rates. The chart below illustrates these stagflationary fears as the EMFCI (comprised of the 20 most traded EM currencies), has declined by almost 8% despite aggressive rate hikes. However, more dollars are needed. Brazil recently announced a $60B swap program to minimize its USD shortage while Indonesia and Japan have agreed to a $12B bilateral swap program. India will begin selling USD to state-owned oil importers.
Prior 323K 2951K -0.10% 2.10% 1.20%
tober 27ay, October 26 Sunday, October 27
Libor Last Price Five day change Libor 1M 0.1819 -0.00016 Libor 2M 0.22446 -0.00076 Libor 3M 0.2564 -0.0031 Cash Markets Fed Funds 0.08 0 TSY Repo O/N 0.06 0.02 Money Markets USD Swap 2 YR 0.616 0.0501 USD Swap 5 YR 1.9125 0.103 USD Swap 10 YR 3.1135 0.1305 Volatility Vix Index 15.77 -1.05 Commodities Copper Futures 325.8 1.4 Gold Futures 1388.6 -26.4 WTI Crude Futures 110.29 1.55 Natural Gas Futures 3.53 -0.088 CRB Index 471.11 -1.88 Equity Indices SPX Futures 1657.8 21.1 Dow Jones Futures 14840 106 Rig Counts Baker Hughes Gas Count 394 14 Baker Hughes Crude Count 1365 -23 Baker Hughes Oil & Gas 1767 -9 Swap Spread Rates USD Swap Spread 2 YR 15.8 -1.06 USD Swap Spread 5 YR 15.25 -1.38 US Treasuries US 10 YR Treasury 2.9305 0.1447 US 30 YR Treasury 3.8603 0.1608
Ken Hogan SVP, Head of FX
Nader Adeeb VP, FX Trading
Bloomberg FXET: CADB SWIFT: CDBKUS44 [email protected] + 713-871-4061 www.cadencebank.com
