Biofuels
The role of biofuels in transport on the longer term Luc Pelkmans, VITO
BIOSES final workshop, Brussels, 15 December 2010
Sustainable biofuel use in Belgium
Long term priorities for energy in transport
Reduce oil dependency Reduce GHG emissions in transport Improve local air quality
1.
Energy saving in transport » » » »
2.
Alternative technologies - electric mobility » »
3.
modal shift (to public transport, cycling, …) mobility plans efficient vehicles promote fuel efficient driving behaviour,
cars, public transport (train, tram, bus), local delivery (vans, trucks) long distance => trains
Sustainable biomass-based fuels »
in synergy with other biomass/nature services (food, materials, ecosystem services) 21/12/2010 © 2010, VITO NV
2
Energy saving ? Baseline vs ‘energy saving’ scenario (road transport)
EC BAS0 vs. ES0 400
Energy Consumption [PJ]
350
300
-13%
-20%
250
200
BAS0
150
ES0
100 50
0 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Source: E-Motion calculations, 2010 21/12/2010 © 2010, VITO NV
3
Sales of electric vehicles ? Passenger cars Baseline
Energy saving
Visionary
(pro-active)
(EV focus)
* Charge sustaining hybrid: battery is charged by combustion engine and brake energy (~current hybrids) ** Plug-in hybrid: battery can be charged by the electricity grid (plug) Source: MIRA-S, 2009 21/12/2010 © 2010, VITO NV
4
Is there a role for biofuels on the longer term ? » Increasingly stringent sustainability requirements » more difficult for agricultural crops » use of fertilizer => N2O emissions; » use of pesticides; » land use & carbon stock (conversion of land needed ?) » Competition with other uses of the feedstock » grains, sugars, vegetable oils » high demand for vegetable oil in EU (biodiesel) => additional stress on growing worldwide veg. oil markets » Shift to other feedstocks » waste & residues » ligno-cellulosic biomass » algae (long term)
21/12/2010 © 2010, VITO NV
5
Demand for cellulose materials – 2nd generation biofuels
Source: REFUEL (2007) 21/12/2010 © 2010, VITO NV
6
Cellulose based biofuels Technologies & fuels
Feedstock
Bio-chemical: enzym. hydrolysis & fermentation
Fast growing grasses
‘cellulosic’ ethanol, butanol
(miscanthus, bamboe, cane)
Thermo-chemical: Gasification & synthesis Fischer-Tropsch diesel (FT) di-methyl ether (DME) ethanol, butanol,… SNG (methane) Hydrogen
Farmed wood / short rotation coppice (willow, poplar)
Residues of agricultural crops (straw, stalks)
Black liquor (from paper pulp industry)
Thermo-chemical: pyrolysis & hydrogenation Pyrolysis oil (can be input for crude oil refineries)
Wood residues / waste wood Organic waste Microalgae
Biological hydrogen Source: IEA Bioenergy Task 39 (2009)
21/12/2010 © 2010, VITO NV
7
Discussion: use ligno-cellosic biomass for biofuels, or for bio-electricity for electric vehicles ? => Pathway comparison Biofuel conversion process Biomass (ligno-cellulose) Steam power cycle
Electricity
21/12/2010 © 2010, VITO NV
8
Pathway comparison – assumptions ? Vehicle technology » Type of vehicle (cars, trucks, buses, … ?) » Main focus for EVs on local traffic (passenger cars, delivery vans, public transport)
» What about long distance (trucks, ships, aircraft) ? » Type of technology (basis = mid-sized family car) » Both technologies have main roll-out in the future (by 2020 and later) => reference for “standard” vehicles driving on biofuels ? current vehicle technology @ 5-8 litre/100km vs. anticipated 2020-2030 technology (hybrid) @ 3-5 litre/100km
=> electric vehicle: pure EV or plug-in hybrid (which still needs fuel) & type of batteries ? anticipated electr. consumption 20-30 kWh/100 km
21/12/2010 © 2010, VITO NV
9
Pathway comparison – assumptions ? Conversion technology » Type of input (feedstock) » dry vs. wet material » basis = ligno-cellulose material » 2nd generation biofuel technology » current efficiency limited, further improvements can be expected » stand-alone vs. integration with bio-products & electr/heat (bio-refinery concept)
» Bio-electricity » large vs medium & small scale » Large => co-firing in coal power or dedicated large scale biomass electr. prod. ; focus on electricity production, use of ‘waste’ heat (locally) difficult » Medium & small scale => also possibilities for using the heat locally
» future: integration of electricity production in bio-refineries (scale also limited) 21/12/2010 © 2010, VITO NV
10
Matrices for comparison & efficiency assumptions 2nd gen biofuels
Current car technology Thermal efficiency 15-20%
Future car technology (hybrid) & current heavy duty Thermal efficiency 30-40%
Stand alone process Thermal efficiency 40-50%
Output: mech energy
Output: mech energy
Integrated proces Thermal efficiency 60-80% (~25% towards biofuel)
Output: mech energy + heat & other
Output: mech energy + heat & other
Bio-electricity
EV drivetrain efficiency 85-90% Electricity distribution & battery charging efficiency 70-80%
Large scale electricity thermal efficiency 35-40%
Output: mech energy
CHP or polygeneration thermal efficiency 60-90% (~30% towards electricity)
Output: mech energy + heat
21/12/2010 © 2010, VITO NV
11
Own calculations 21/12/2010 © 2010, VITO NV
12
First conclusions from the pathway comparison » In general the electric pathway performs better than the biofuel pathway, however: » the difference gets smaller for new types of (hybrid) cars on liquid or gaseous fuel (for heavy duty vehicles - higher average efficiency than cars - the difference is already limited),
» integration (co-prod. of fuels, electricity, heat & other products) makes a big difference; biofuels from integrated technology show better overall efficiency than EVs on electricity from big power facilities. » for the electric pathway there is a clear preference for CHP & polygeneration. However, most electricity from biomass – at least in Belgium - is produced through large scale installations & co-firing. » Use of (waste) heat and integration is a crucial factor !!
21/12/2010 © 2010, VITO NV
13
Other factors Efficiency (& GHG balance) not the only factor in the choice between 2nd gen biofuels and EVs on biomass electricity » Cost => life cycle cost comparison » Added cost of 2nd gen. biofuels vs added cost of electric vehicles ?
» Future transport: balance between electricity & liquid (or gaseous) fuels » local traffic : perfect for electric mobility » longer distances (trucks, ships, aircraft): reliance on high density fuel exception = electric trains
» plug-in hybrid electric vehicles: also rely on fuel for longer distances » see IEA-ETP scenario
» Higher intrinsic value for transport fuel than for electricity » less options to replace fossil fuel in transport than in electricity prod.
21/12/2010 © 2010, VITO NV
14
IEA ETP Blue Map scenario (worldwide)
Source: IEA ETP 2008 Basis Blue Map = 50% reduction in global energy-related GHG, from 2005 to 2050 21/12/2010 © 2010, VITO NV
15
IEA ETP Blue Map scenario (worldwide) » Overall transport energy consumption by 2050: » ~ 15% increase compared to 2005 energy use (increase in developing countries, decrease in developed)
» 1/3 reduction compared to baseline 2050 » Fossil consumption by 2050: » half compared to 2005 energy use » 1/3 compared to baseline 2050 » jet fuel & diesel (linked to long-distance transport) most important » Electric & hydrogen (H2 could be reviewed): » ~ 20% of transport energy consumption » Biofuels: » 25-30% of transport energy consumption in 2050 » Corresponds to 600 Mtoe or 25EJ/yr worldwide » Mostly based on cellulose 21/12/2010 © 2010, VITO NV
16
1500
Biomass availability ?
1250
1000
EJ / Year
For energy
World Energy demand (2050)
Technical biomass potential (2050)
600
=> heat, electricity & transport
500
World energy demand (2008)
Sustainable biomass potential (2050)
250 200
50
World biomass
World biomass demand
demand (2008)
(2050)
Agricultural productiv ity improv ement Crops w /o ex clusion Crops w ith ex clusion Surplus forestry Forestry and agriculture residues
Current world energy demand (500 EJ/year) Current world biomass use (50 EJ/year)
Source: Dornburg et al., Energy & Environmental Science, 2010
Total world primary energy demand in 2050 in World Energy Assessment (600 - 1000 EJ/year) M odelled biomass demand in 2050 as found in literature studies. (50 - 250 EJ/year) Technical potential for biomass production in 2050 as found in literature studies. (50 - 1500 EJ/year). Sustainable biomass potential in 2050 (200-500 EJ/year). Sustainable biomass potentials consist of: (i) residues from agriculture and forestry; (ii) surplus forest material (net annual increment minus current harvest); (iii) energy crops, excluding areas with moderately degraded soils and/or moderate water scarcity; (iv) additional energy crops grown in areas with moderately degraded soils and/or moderate water scarcity and (v) additional potential when agricultural productivity increases faster than historic trends thereby producing more food from the same land area. 21/12/2010 17 © 2010, VITO NV
Conclusions » biofuels can have an important role in the future transport system, specifically in heavy duty & long-distance transport, » specific focus for electric vehicles is needed for local traffic, passenger cars, public transport, » biofuel production / use of biomass: important to look at synergies (coproduction of fuels, electricity, heat & other products), » while in the next 10 years current biofuels (based on agri crops) are still the basis, further growth afterwards will have to come from other feedstocks, like waste & residues, ligno-cellulose and possibly algae (long term), » biomass availability on global scale should be OK, but sustainability safeguards needed, » energy efficiency & energy saving is key, in terms of limited resources of fossil, biomass & materials (batteries)
21/12/2010 © 2010, VITO NV
18
BIOSES roadmap – long term policy targets Energy saving in transport
Sales of electric cars (EV & PHEV)
Sustainable biofuels
2020
13% compared to baseline
10% of car sales
8.5%* of transport energy use
2030
20% compared to baseline
50% of car sales
15% of transport energy use (1/3 based on cellulose & waste)
* 10% target of RED through double-counting waste & cellulose-based biofuels & electric mobility
21/12/2010 © 2010, VITO NV
19
Policy focus for biofuels » sufficient mobilization of biomass in a sustainable way » collection of residues » new energy crops for farming sector ? » worldwide trade => support developing countries (also in agriculture); safeguard social, economic & environmental sustainability » support energy efficient conversion technologies » further improvement of current installations » technologies using new feedstocks (“2nd generation”) » integration / co-generation of fuels, electr, heat and products » efficient implementation of sustainability requirements (admin. burden, smallholders), » support market deployment (blending obligations, adapted fuel tax, fuel stations), » reward high GHG performance, » vehicle compatibility (e.g. FFVs) => European frame 21/12/2010 © 2010, VITO NV
20
Contacts Luc Pelkmans Project Manager Bioenergy VITO (Flemish Institute for Technological Research) Boeretang 200, 2400 Mol, Belgium tel. 014 33.58.30 [email protected]
www.vito.be/bioses www.ecp-biomass.eu www.biofuel-cities.eu www.elobio.eu www.bioenergytrade.org
21/12/2010 © 2010, VITO NV
21
BIOSES final workshop, Brussels, 15 December 2010
Sustainable biofuel use in Belgium
Long term priorities for energy in transport
Reduce oil dependency Reduce GHG emissions in transport Improve local air quality
1.
Energy saving in transport » » » »
2.
Alternative technologies - electric mobility » »
3.
modal shift (to public transport, cycling, …) mobility plans efficient vehicles promote fuel efficient driving behaviour,
cars, public transport (train, tram, bus), local delivery (vans, trucks) long distance => trains
Sustainable biomass-based fuels »
in synergy with other biomass/nature services (food, materials, ecosystem services) 21/12/2010 © 2010, VITO NV
2
Energy saving ? Baseline vs ‘energy saving’ scenario (road transport)
EC BAS0 vs. ES0 400
Energy Consumption [PJ]
350
300
-13%
-20%
250
200
BAS0
150
ES0
100 50
0 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Source: E-Motion calculations, 2010 21/12/2010 © 2010, VITO NV
3
Sales of electric vehicles ? Passenger cars Baseline
Energy saving
Visionary
(pro-active)
(EV focus)
* Charge sustaining hybrid: battery is charged by combustion engine and brake energy (~current hybrids) ** Plug-in hybrid: battery can be charged by the electricity grid (plug) Source: MIRA-S, 2009 21/12/2010 © 2010, VITO NV
4
Is there a role for biofuels on the longer term ? » Increasingly stringent sustainability requirements » more difficult for agricultural crops » use of fertilizer => N2O emissions; » use of pesticides; » land use & carbon stock (conversion of land needed ?) » Competition with other uses of the feedstock » grains, sugars, vegetable oils » high demand for vegetable oil in EU (biodiesel) => additional stress on growing worldwide veg. oil markets » Shift to other feedstocks » waste & residues » ligno-cellulosic biomass » algae (long term)
21/12/2010 © 2010, VITO NV
5
Demand for cellulose materials – 2nd generation biofuels
Source: REFUEL (2007) 21/12/2010 © 2010, VITO NV
6
Cellulose based biofuels Technologies & fuels
Feedstock
Bio-chemical: enzym. hydrolysis & fermentation
Fast growing grasses
‘cellulosic’ ethanol, butanol
(miscanthus, bamboe, cane)
Thermo-chemical: Gasification & synthesis Fischer-Tropsch diesel (FT) di-methyl ether (DME) ethanol, butanol,… SNG (methane) Hydrogen
Farmed wood / short rotation coppice (willow, poplar)
Residues of agricultural crops (straw, stalks)
Black liquor (from paper pulp industry)
Thermo-chemical: pyrolysis & hydrogenation Pyrolysis oil (can be input for crude oil refineries)
Wood residues / waste wood Organic waste Microalgae
Biological hydrogen Source: IEA Bioenergy Task 39 (2009)
21/12/2010 © 2010, VITO NV
7
Discussion: use ligno-cellosic biomass for biofuels, or for bio-electricity for electric vehicles ? => Pathway comparison Biofuel conversion process Biomass (ligno-cellulose) Steam power cycle
Electricity
21/12/2010 © 2010, VITO NV
8
Pathway comparison – assumptions ? Vehicle technology » Type of vehicle (cars, trucks, buses, … ?) » Main focus for EVs on local traffic (passenger cars, delivery vans, public transport)
» What about long distance (trucks, ships, aircraft) ? » Type of technology (basis = mid-sized family car) » Both technologies have main roll-out in the future (by 2020 and later) => reference for “standard” vehicles driving on biofuels ? current vehicle technology @ 5-8 litre/100km vs. anticipated 2020-2030 technology (hybrid) @ 3-5 litre/100km
=> electric vehicle: pure EV or plug-in hybrid (which still needs fuel) & type of batteries ? anticipated electr. consumption 20-30 kWh/100 km
21/12/2010 © 2010, VITO NV
9
Pathway comparison – assumptions ? Conversion technology » Type of input (feedstock) » dry vs. wet material » basis = ligno-cellulose material » 2nd generation biofuel technology » current efficiency limited, further improvements can be expected » stand-alone vs. integration with bio-products & electr/heat (bio-refinery concept)
» Bio-electricity » large vs medium & small scale » Large => co-firing in coal power or dedicated large scale biomass electr. prod. ; focus on electricity production, use of ‘waste’ heat (locally) difficult » Medium & small scale => also possibilities for using the heat locally
» future: integration of electricity production in bio-refineries (scale also limited) 21/12/2010 © 2010, VITO NV
10
Matrices for comparison & efficiency assumptions 2nd gen biofuels
Current car technology Thermal efficiency 15-20%
Future car technology (hybrid) & current heavy duty Thermal efficiency 30-40%
Stand alone process Thermal efficiency 40-50%
Output: mech energy
Output: mech energy
Integrated proces Thermal efficiency 60-80% (~25% towards biofuel)
Output: mech energy + heat & other
Output: mech energy + heat & other
Bio-electricity
EV drivetrain efficiency 85-90% Electricity distribution & battery charging efficiency 70-80%
Large scale electricity thermal efficiency 35-40%
Output: mech energy
CHP or polygeneration thermal efficiency 60-90% (~30% towards electricity)
Output: mech energy + heat
21/12/2010 © 2010, VITO NV
11
Own calculations 21/12/2010 © 2010, VITO NV
12
First conclusions from the pathway comparison » In general the electric pathway performs better than the biofuel pathway, however: » the difference gets smaller for new types of (hybrid) cars on liquid or gaseous fuel (for heavy duty vehicles - higher average efficiency than cars - the difference is already limited),
» integration (co-prod. of fuels, electricity, heat & other products) makes a big difference; biofuels from integrated technology show better overall efficiency than EVs on electricity from big power facilities. » for the electric pathway there is a clear preference for CHP & polygeneration. However, most electricity from biomass – at least in Belgium - is produced through large scale installations & co-firing. » Use of (waste) heat and integration is a crucial factor !!
21/12/2010 © 2010, VITO NV
13
Other factors Efficiency (& GHG balance) not the only factor in the choice between 2nd gen biofuels and EVs on biomass electricity » Cost => life cycle cost comparison » Added cost of 2nd gen. biofuels vs added cost of electric vehicles ?
» Future transport: balance between electricity & liquid (or gaseous) fuels » local traffic : perfect for electric mobility » longer distances (trucks, ships, aircraft): reliance on high density fuel exception = electric trains
» plug-in hybrid electric vehicles: also rely on fuel for longer distances » see IEA-ETP scenario
» Higher intrinsic value for transport fuel than for electricity » less options to replace fossil fuel in transport than in electricity prod.
21/12/2010 © 2010, VITO NV
14
IEA ETP Blue Map scenario (worldwide)
Source: IEA ETP 2008 Basis Blue Map = 50% reduction in global energy-related GHG, from 2005 to 2050 21/12/2010 © 2010, VITO NV
15
IEA ETP Blue Map scenario (worldwide) » Overall transport energy consumption by 2050: » ~ 15% increase compared to 2005 energy use (increase in developing countries, decrease in developed)
» 1/3 reduction compared to baseline 2050 » Fossil consumption by 2050: » half compared to 2005 energy use » 1/3 compared to baseline 2050 » jet fuel & diesel (linked to long-distance transport) most important » Electric & hydrogen (H2 could be reviewed): » ~ 20% of transport energy consumption » Biofuels: » 25-30% of transport energy consumption in 2050 » Corresponds to 600 Mtoe or 25EJ/yr worldwide » Mostly based on cellulose 21/12/2010 © 2010, VITO NV
16
1500
Biomass availability ?
1250
1000
EJ / Year
For energy
World Energy demand (2050)
Technical biomass potential (2050)
600
=> heat, electricity & transport
500
World energy demand (2008)
Sustainable biomass potential (2050)
250 200
50
World biomass
World biomass demand
demand (2008)
(2050)
Agricultural productiv ity improv ement Crops w /o ex clusion Crops w ith ex clusion Surplus forestry Forestry and agriculture residues
Current world energy demand (500 EJ/year) Current world biomass use (50 EJ/year)
Source: Dornburg et al., Energy & Environmental Science, 2010
Total world primary energy demand in 2050 in World Energy Assessment (600 - 1000 EJ/year) M odelled biomass demand in 2050 as found in literature studies. (50 - 250 EJ/year) Technical potential for biomass production in 2050 as found in literature studies. (50 - 1500 EJ/year). Sustainable biomass potential in 2050 (200-500 EJ/year). Sustainable biomass potentials consist of: (i) residues from agriculture and forestry; (ii) surplus forest material (net annual increment minus current harvest); (iii) energy crops, excluding areas with moderately degraded soils and/or moderate water scarcity; (iv) additional energy crops grown in areas with moderately degraded soils and/or moderate water scarcity and (v) additional potential when agricultural productivity increases faster than historic trends thereby producing more food from the same land area. 21/12/2010 17 © 2010, VITO NV
Conclusions » biofuels can have an important role in the future transport system, specifically in heavy duty & long-distance transport, » specific focus for electric vehicles is needed for local traffic, passenger cars, public transport, » biofuel production / use of biomass: important to look at synergies (coproduction of fuels, electricity, heat & other products), » while in the next 10 years current biofuels (based on agri crops) are still the basis, further growth afterwards will have to come from other feedstocks, like waste & residues, ligno-cellulose and possibly algae (long term), » biomass availability on global scale should be OK, but sustainability safeguards needed, » energy efficiency & energy saving is key, in terms of limited resources of fossil, biomass & materials (batteries)
21/12/2010 © 2010, VITO NV
18
BIOSES roadmap – long term policy targets Energy saving in transport
Sales of electric cars (EV & PHEV)
Sustainable biofuels
2020
13% compared to baseline
10% of car sales
8.5%* of transport energy use
2030
20% compared to baseline
50% of car sales
15% of transport energy use (1/3 based on cellulose & waste)
* 10% target of RED through double-counting waste & cellulose-based biofuels & electric mobility
21/12/2010 © 2010, VITO NV
19
Policy focus for biofuels » sufficient mobilization of biomass in a sustainable way » collection of residues » new energy crops for farming sector ? » worldwide trade => support developing countries (also in agriculture); safeguard social, economic & environmental sustainability » support energy efficient conversion technologies » further improvement of current installations » technologies using new feedstocks (“2nd generation”) » integration / co-generation of fuels, electr, heat and products » efficient implementation of sustainability requirements (admin. burden, smallholders), » support market deployment (blending obligations, adapted fuel tax, fuel stations), » reward high GHG performance, » vehicle compatibility (e.g. FFVs) => European frame 21/12/2010 © 2010, VITO NV
20
Contacts Luc Pelkmans Project Manager Bioenergy VITO (Flemish Institute for Technological Research) Boeretang 200, 2400 Mol, Belgium tel. 014 33.58.30 [email protected]
www.vito.be/bioses www.ecp-biomass.eu www.biofuel-cities.eu www.elobio.eu www.bioenergytrade.org
21/12/2010 © 2010, VITO NV
21
