Brazilian Agriculture Outlook - Global Organic Trade Guide
Brazilian Agriculture Outlook Blairo Maggi Minister of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply
Brazil in the Global Agricultural Trade
Brazil's share in the Top 20 World Agricultural Markets - 2015
Source: Trademap/CCI, 2015. Made by: SRI/MAPA. Excludes EU internal trade. Data extracted in June/2016.
Brazil – World Ranking, 2015 Product Sugar Coffee Orange Juice Soybeans Beef Broiler meat Corn Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Pork Cotton
Source: USDA, 2015/16; Trademap/CCI, 2015. Made by: SRI/MAPA. Data extracted in June/2016.
Production
Exports
Market Share
1º 1º 1º 2º 2º 3º 3º 4º 4º 4º 5º
1º 1º 1º 1º 3º 1º 2º 2º 2º 4º 3º
47% 28% 46% 38% 14% 42% 20% 23% 13% 9% 11%
Agriculture in Brazilian Economy
Share of Agribusiness in Brazilian Economy
Source: CEPEA/USP, 2015.
World Demand and Supply Prospects for Food
Asia: Future of agriculture exports Consumption (% world) 28% chicken 20% beef 31% dairy products 37% sugar
51% world’s population 19% GDP 18% available land 23% renewable water
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST : Bangladesh, Bhutan, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Laos, Macau, Malaysia, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand, East Timor, Vietnam
Source: ICONE
Global Middle Class evolution (in billion of people) 6
4,884 5
4
3,249 3
3,228
1,845 2
1
1,74 0,255 0,338 0,664
0 2009 Europe
0,333
0,322
0,703
0,68
2020
North America
Source: OECD Elaboration: SRI / MAPA
Pacific Asia
Central and South America
2030
Middle East and North Africa
sub-Saharan Africa
Land and Water Available in the World
Note: Land – available, not protected (including pastures). Water – total renewable water sources
Source: Fischer e Shah (2010) in World Bank, 2010 (Rising Global Interest in Farmland: Can it Yield Sustainable and Equitable Benefits?). Elaboration: ICONE, FAO
Land Distribution in Brazil
Source: Embrapa, IBGE, CNA, MMA, FUNAI, DNIT, ANA, MPOG. Preparation: Embrapa Monitoring
Brazil: Green Savings - Grains 200
LAND SAVINGS: keeping the same average yield of 1976, 156.6 million hectares (3.3 times the current area) would be necessary in order to produce 202.2 million tons
180 160 140 120 100
4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5
80
2,0
60
1,5
40
1,0
20
0,5
0
0,0
Produção (milhão de ton) tons) Production (million Area second harvest (million hectares) Área da of segunda safra (milhão hectares)
Source: CONAB
Yield 4.5 t/ha
4,5
1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 1979/80 1980/81 1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15
Million of hectares or tons
5,0
Área hectares) Area(milhão (million hectares)
38 years +220%
Yield 1.4 t/ha
Yield in thena summer area(ton/ha) (tons/ha) Produtividade área de verão
Value adding Brazilian products feature:
Sustainability Fair work Social responsability
Traceability Functional foods Geographical indication
AGROECOLOGY AND ORGANIC PRODUCTION Distribution of Organic Production Units per Micro-Regions, March 2016
Over 100
22.5% OF BRAZILIAN MUNICIPALITIES ALREADY HAVE ORGANIC PRODUCTION
Source
AGROECOLOGY AND ORGANIC PRODUCTION
Control Procedures for Guaranteeing Organic Quality ORGANIC PRODUCTS SEAL
AGROECOLOGY AND ORGANIC PRODUCTION Phytosanitary Products Approved for Organic Agriculture BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS REGISTRATION - JAN 2016 EMERGENCY REGISTRATION NOT INCLUDED 100 90
IN 2016 5 BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN REGISTERED FOR ORGANICS AND THERE ARE 33 REGISTRATION APPLICATIONS UNDER REVIEW
Number of registered products
80 70 49 60 50
20
40
Organics Via Organico Via Convencional Traditional
14 3
30 20
29 10 0
27
33
37
37
2013
2014
41
20 1 1984
2010
2011
2012
2015
Anos
41 biological products have been registered along 31 years (1984-2015) for traditional agriculture whilst 49 products were registered for organics in a 5 year period (2010-2015)
Investment Opportunities
Logistics in the “North Arco”: Waterways, Highways and Railroads
Cities States Other Latin America countries Waterways Railroads planned or under construction Railroads for concession Railroads Highways planned or under construction Highways for concession Highways
Infrastructure: Ports • By July 2016, 180 port facilities have already been authorized by the Federal Government Agencies (ANTAQ):
Investments in ports have reached US$ 4.9 billion in 2016
Source: ANTAQ
New Concessions for Railroads Finished studies for new railroads: 2,991 km Studies under review: 4,676 km Ferrovia Norte-Sul Açailândia/MA - Barcarena/PA (457 km)
Malha Principal Main rail Em construção Under construction Estudos prontos Finished studies PMI Studies under review
RR AP Vila do Conde Barcarena Santarém
Sinop/MT - Miritituba/PA (990 km)
Itaqui
Miritituba
Pecém
AM PA
Açailândia
CE
Xambioá
Sapezal/MT - Porto Velho/RO (950 km)
Estreito
MA
Aguiarnópolis
RN
PI
Porto Velho
PB Eliseu Martins
AC Palmas
AL
TO
RO Lucas do Rio Verde
Figueirópolis
Sinop
Barreiras
SE BA
Sapezal
MT
FICO - Lucas do Rio Verde/MT - Campinorte/GO (883 km)
Campinorte
Cuiabá
Alto Araguaia
Ferrovia Norte-Sul Palmas - Estrela D’Oeste (1.536 km)
Salvador
Ilhéus
GO
Corumbá
MS
Estrela D’Oeste
Anápolis/GO - Corinto/MG (775 km)
Guanambi
DF
Anápolis
Rondonópolis
Suape
PE
Corinto
MG Belo Horizonte ES
Panorama
Belo Horizonte/MG – Guanambi/BA (845 km)
Vitória
Dourados
SP
Estrela D’Oeste/SP - Dourados/MS (659 km)
RJ Rio de Janeiro Santos
PR
Paranaguá
Vitória/ES - Rio de Janeiro/RJ 572 km
Chapecó
SC Uruguaiana
Santa Maria
Passo Fundo
RS Porto Alegre
Rio Grande
20
Storage Opportunities Capacity Distribution Over 45 million tons need investment
Difference (thousand tons)
• The current static storage capacity is of 145 million tons
Source: CONAB
States
Production/ Current capacity
PI
0,42
TO
0,50
MA
0,61
BA
0,64
MS
0,65
GO
0,69
MT
0,71
PR
0,87
Brazil and the Future of Agriculture World: • Growth in global food demand (mainly Asia) BRAZIL: • High availability of land and water • Sustainability • Technology leader in tropical agriculture • High level of environmental protection • Great strides in adding value to Brazilian products (including organic farming)
• Many opportunities for investment in agriculture, particularly in the area of infrastructure and logistics (transport and storage)
Thank you!
Brazil in the Global Agricultural Trade
Brazil's share in the Top 20 World Agricultural Markets - 2015
Source: Trademap/CCI, 2015. Made by: SRI/MAPA. Excludes EU internal trade. Data extracted in June/2016.
Brazil – World Ranking, 2015 Product Sugar Coffee Orange Juice Soybeans Beef Broiler meat Corn Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Pork Cotton
Source: USDA, 2015/16; Trademap/CCI, 2015. Made by: SRI/MAPA. Data extracted in June/2016.
Production
Exports
Market Share
1º 1º 1º 2º 2º 3º 3º 4º 4º 4º 5º
1º 1º 1º 1º 3º 1º 2º 2º 2º 4º 3º
47% 28% 46% 38% 14% 42% 20% 23% 13% 9% 11%
Agriculture in Brazilian Economy
Share of Agribusiness in Brazilian Economy
Source: CEPEA/USP, 2015.
World Demand and Supply Prospects for Food
Asia: Future of agriculture exports Consumption (% world) 28% chicken 20% beef 31% dairy products 37% sugar
51% world’s population 19% GDP 18% available land 23% renewable water
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST : Bangladesh, Bhutan, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Laos, Macau, Malaysia, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand, East Timor, Vietnam
Source: ICONE
Global Middle Class evolution (in billion of people) 6
4,884 5
4
3,249 3
3,228
1,845 2
1
1,74 0,255 0,338 0,664
0 2009 Europe
0,333
0,322
0,703
0,68
2020
North America
Source: OECD Elaboration: SRI / MAPA
Pacific Asia
Central and South America
2030
Middle East and North Africa
sub-Saharan Africa
Land and Water Available in the World
Note: Land – available, not protected (including pastures). Water – total renewable water sources
Source: Fischer e Shah (2010) in World Bank, 2010 (Rising Global Interest in Farmland: Can it Yield Sustainable and Equitable Benefits?). Elaboration: ICONE, FAO
Land Distribution in Brazil
Source: Embrapa, IBGE, CNA, MMA, FUNAI, DNIT, ANA, MPOG. Preparation: Embrapa Monitoring
Brazil: Green Savings - Grains 200
LAND SAVINGS: keeping the same average yield of 1976, 156.6 million hectares (3.3 times the current area) would be necessary in order to produce 202.2 million tons
180 160 140 120 100
4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5
80
2,0
60
1,5
40
1,0
20
0,5
0
0,0
Produção (milhão de ton) tons) Production (million Area second harvest (million hectares) Área da of segunda safra (milhão hectares)
Source: CONAB
Yield 4.5 t/ha
4,5
1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 1979/80 1980/81 1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15
Million of hectares or tons
5,0
Área hectares) Area(milhão (million hectares)
38 years +220%
Yield 1.4 t/ha
Yield in thena summer area(ton/ha) (tons/ha) Produtividade área de verão
Value adding Brazilian products feature:
Sustainability Fair work Social responsability
Traceability Functional foods Geographical indication
AGROECOLOGY AND ORGANIC PRODUCTION Distribution of Organic Production Units per Micro-Regions, March 2016
Over 100
22.5% OF BRAZILIAN MUNICIPALITIES ALREADY HAVE ORGANIC PRODUCTION
Source
AGROECOLOGY AND ORGANIC PRODUCTION
Control Procedures for Guaranteeing Organic Quality ORGANIC PRODUCTS SEAL
AGROECOLOGY AND ORGANIC PRODUCTION Phytosanitary Products Approved for Organic Agriculture BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS REGISTRATION - JAN 2016 EMERGENCY REGISTRATION NOT INCLUDED 100 90
IN 2016 5 BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN REGISTERED FOR ORGANICS AND THERE ARE 33 REGISTRATION APPLICATIONS UNDER REVIEW
Number of registered products
80 70 49 60 50
20
40
Organics Via Organico Via Convencional Traditional
14 3
30 20
29 10 0
27
33
37
37
2013
2014
41
20 1 1984
2010
2011
2012
2015
Anos
41 biological products have been registered along 31 years (1984-2015) for traditional agriculture whilst 49 products were registered for organics in a 5 year period (2010-2015)
Investment Opportunities
Logistics in the “North Arco”: Waterways, Highways and Railroads
Cities States Other Latin America countries Waterways Railroads planned or under construction Railroads for concession Railroads Highways planned or under construction Highways for concession Highways
Infrastructure: Ports • By July 2016, 180 port facilities have already been authorized by the Federal Government Agencies (ANTAQ):
Investments in ports have reached US$ 4.9 billion in 2016
Source: ANTAQ
New Concessions for Railroads Finished studies for new railroads: 2,991 km Studies under review: 4,676 km Ferrovia Norte-Sul Açailândia/MA - Barcarena/PA (457 km)
Malha Principal Main rail Em construção Under construction Estudos prontos Finished studies PMI Studies under review
RR AP Vila do Conde Barcarena Santarém
Sinop/MT - Miritituba/PA (990 km)
Itaqui
Miritituba
Pecém
AM PA
Açailândia
CE
Xambioá
Sapezal/MT - Porto Velho/RO (950 km)
Estreito
MA
Aguiarnópolis
RN
PI
Porto Velho
PB Eliseu Martins
AC Palmas
AL
TO
RO Lucas do Rio Verde
Figueirópolis
Sinop
Barreiras
SE BA
Sapezal
MT
FICO - Lucas do Rio Verde/MT - Campinorte/GO (883 km)
Campinorte
Cuiabá
Alto Araguaia
Ferrovia Norte-Sul Palmas - Estrela D’Oeste (1.536 km)
Salvador
Ilhéus
GO
Corumbá
MS
Estrela D’Oeste
Anápolis/GO - Corinto/MG (775 km)
Guanambi
DF
Anápolis
Rondonópolis
Suape
PE
Corinto
MG Belo Horizonte ES
Panorama
Belo Horizonte/MG – Guanambi/BA (845 km)
Vitória
Dourados
SP
Estrela D’Oeste/SP - Dourados/MS (659 km)
RJ Rio de Janeiro Santos
PR
Paranaguá
Vitória/ES - Rio de Janeiro/RJ 572 km
Chapecó
SC Uruguaiana
Santa Maria
Passo Fundo
RS Porto Alegre
Rio Grande
20
Storage Opportunities Capacity Distribution Over 45 million tons need investment
Difference (thousand tons)
• The current static storage capacity is of 145 million tons
Source: CONAB
States
Production/ Current capacity
PI
0,42
TO
0,50
MA
0,61
BA
0,64
MS
0,65
GO
0,69
MT
0,71
PR
0,87
Brazil and the Future of Agriculture World: • Growth in global food demand (mainly Asia) BRAZIL: • High availability of land and water • Sustainability • Technology leader in tropical agriculture • High level of environmental protection • Great strides in adding value to Brazilian products (including organic farming)
• Many opportunities for investment in agriculture, particularly in the area of infrastructure and logistics (transport and storage)
Thank you!
