GFPT Buy (15E TP Bt21.00)
Company Update
Close Bt14.00
Agribusiness March 3, 2015
Earning upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
1Q15 earnings to fall YoY and QoQ
FY15
FY16
Consensus EPS (Bt)
1.636
1.772
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐13.8%
‐12%
Reuters / Bloomberg
GFPT.BK/GFPT TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
1,253.82
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
18.00/543.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/16.84
52 week High / Low (Bt)
21.40/12.60
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
3,728.00 5.36
Estimated free float (%)
44
Beta
0.79
URL
www.gfpt.co.th
CGR
Share price is being pressured by broiler price and low season We still like GFPT for its superior profitability, with expected ROE of 19% and NI/EBITDA of 73% in 2015. Believing that GFPT remains attractive, we suggest that investors accumulate shares while the share price is being pressured by falling broiler prices and low seasonal earnings in the short term. Maintain “BUY” with a TP of Bt21 (PBV/ROE of 0.14x). Broiler exports should grow by 4%, with price likely to recover in 2H15 The management expects Thai broiler exports to grow by 4% to 600,000 tons in 2015. The domestic broiler price has fallen to Bt38/kg given that the supply of chicks has increased at a faster pace than the demand. Note, however, that Thai broiler raisers have suspended importing breeders given the spread of bird flu in Europe and the US. If the suspension continues longer than nine months, domestic supply will become tighter in late 2015 to early 2016. Thus, the boiler price should rise significantly in 2H15. 1Q15 earnings are likely to fall YoY and QoQ on seasonality The export momentum is expected to weaken seasonally by 20%QoQ and YoY as 1Q is the low season for exports. The domestic broiler price, which is expected to fall by 9%YoY and 5%QoQ, may have an impact on the gross profit margin from the domestic sales of broiler parts at both GFPT and its affiliate, GFN. Hence, we expect the profit contribution from affiliates to fall YoY and QoQ. We preliminarily estimate 1Q15 earnings at around Bt250‐ 300mn, down from Bt425mn in 1Q14 and Bt368mn in 4Q14. 2015‐16 earnings forecasts remain unchanged We maintain our 2015‐16 earnings forecasts at Bt1.77bn (flat) and Bt1.95bn (+10%), respectively, driven by expected sales growth of 8‐10%, an anticipated gross profit margin of 13.75% and expected increases in the profit contributions from affiliates by 8% and 7% in the respective years. Financial and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
Revenues (Btmn)
15,370
16,692
17,829
19,218
21,133
Net profit (Btmn)
232
1,516
1,780
1,774
1,953
EPS (Bt)
0.18
1.21
1.42
1.41
1.56
Norm. EPS (Bt)
0.18
1.14
1.40
1.41
1.56
‐81%
555%
17%
0%
10%
Norm. EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt)
‐
0.35
0.40
0.40
0.44
BV (Bt)
4.68
5.81
6.89
7.90
9.01
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
FY Ended 31 Dec
Phornsri Laysanitsaerekul Analyst , no 17621
[email protected] 66 (0) 2624‐6258
PER (x)
75.81
11.58
9.86
9.90
8.99
EV/EBITDA (x)
26.13
10.34
8.93
8.36
7.28
PBV (x)
2.99
2.41
2.03
1.77
1.55
Dividend yield (%)
0.0%
2.5%
2.9%
2.8%
3.1%
ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
3.9% 94%
23.0% 53%
22.4% 38%
19.1% 26%
18.4% 14%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
Broiler exports should grow by 4%, with upside from expected resumption of exports to South Korea The management expects Thai broiler exports to grow by 10% YoY to 578,000 tons in 2014 and by 4% YoY to 600,000 tons in 2015. There will also be upside from the likelihood that South Korea may resume imports of frozen broiler chickens from Thailand around mid‐2015. If this is the case, we preliminarily estimate Thai broiler exports to South Korea at 20,000 tons per annum, accounting for 3.3% of Thailand’s broiler export target in 2015. Broiler price trend in 2015 is likely to be similar to 2014, with improvement expected in 2H15 In the analyst meeting yesterday, GFPT’s management seemed relieved about the broiler price outlook. Due to the spread of bird flu in late 2014 in Europe, China, Hong Kong, the US and Vietnam, the Thai Livestock Department imposed a ban on the import of grandparent breeders and breeders from Europe and the US, effective from Jan‐15 onwards. If the ban remains effective longer than nine months, the supply of broiler chicks and broiler chickens may become tighter in late 2015 to early 2016. If this is the case, the domestic broiler price will rise notably in 2H15. GFPT’s management expects the domestic broiler price to stay around Bt41‐ 42/kg vs. an average of Bt41.8/kg in 2014.
Domestic broiler price remained stable at Bt38/kg due to growing supply The supply of chicks has recently risen to 30mn chicks/week on the back of overall capacity increases as well as the fact that Sahafarm has resumed its production at 400,000 chicks/day. Considering the increasing imports of grandparent breeders and breeders by 20% p.a. in the past two years, i.e., from 780,000 chicks in 2012 to 1.14mn chicks in 2014, we project that the supply of chicks may peak at 34mn chicks/week in mid‐2015. Meanwhile, the 1Q is the low season for sales and also the time for annual budget closing in Japan, so the orders from Japanese partners have been rather slow. Hence, the domestic broiler price has recently stabilized at 38/kg (vs. Bt39.8/kg in 2M15). The price has improved slightly from the Bt37/kg seen at the end of Feb‐15. We believe the price will remain at this low level for some time before picking up during the Songkran holiday when plants will be closed; domestic demand is then expected to increase and the high export season begins in late 2Q, which is the normal pattern for the domestic broiler price cycle in Thailand.
Figure 1: Broiler spread and spread margin Spread (Bt/kg) 25.00
Spread margin 50%
40%
15.00
30%
10.00
20%
5.00
10%
0.00
0%
‐5.00
Jan‐09 Apr‐09 Jul‐09 Oct‐09 Jan‐10 Apr‐10 Jul‐10 Oct‐10 Jan‐11 Apr‐11 Jul‐11 Oct‐11 Jan‐12 Apr‐12 Jul‐12 Oct‐12 Jan‐13 Apr‐13 Jul‐13 Oct‐13 Jan‐14 Apr‐14 Jul‐14 Oct‐14 Jan‐15
20.00
Spread
‐10%
Spread margin
‐10.00
‐20%
Source: Office of Agriculture Economics (OAE), KTZ Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
1Q15 earnings are likely to fall YoY and QoQ on seasonality The export momentum is expected to weaken seasonally by 20%QoQ and YoY as 1Q is the low season for exports. The domestic broiler price, which is expected to fall by 9%YoY and 5%QoQ, may have a negative impact on the gross profit margin earned by the domestic sales of broiler parts at both GFPT and its affiliate, GFN. Hence, we expect the profit contribution from affiliates to fall YoY and QoQ. We preliminarily estimate 1Q15 earnings at around Bt250‐ 300mn, down from Bt425mn in 1Q14 and Bt368mn in 4Q14. Figure 2: PER Band
(X) 70 60 50
+2 S.D.
Downside
32.9
46.54
232%
24.9
35.28
152%
+1 S.D.
Average
17.0
24.02
72%
+0.5 S.D.
-0.5SD
9.0
12.76
-9%
Avg.
-1.0SD
1.1
1.50
-89%
10
Note : 15E EPS = Bt1.41
Jul-14
Feb-15
Jan-14
Jun-13
Dec-12
Nov-11
May-12
Oct-10
Apr-11
Mar-10
Mar-09
Sep-09
Jul-07
-1 S.D.
Feb-08
-0.5 S.D.
Jan-07
0
Upside/
TP (Bt)
+0.5SD
Aug-08
20
Implied
(x) +1.0SD
40 30
PER
Source: GFPT, KTZ Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
th
th
th
th
KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.