Buy (17E TP Bt10.70)
RS
Buy (17E TP Bt10.70)
Earnings Review
Close Bt8.85
Media & Publishing May 16, 2017
Beat forecast/Below forecast/In‐line
Recovery has just begun Results date: May 15, 2017 Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY17
FY18
Consensus EPS (Bt)
0.136
0.311
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
10.3%
22.2%
Reuters / Bloomberg
RS.BK/RS TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
1,009.94
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
9.00/259.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/3.73
52 week High / Low (Bt)
12.10/5.95
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
3,599.00 4.82
Estimated free float (%)
46.59
Beta
1.31
URL
www.rs.co.th
CGR
Anti‐corruption
n.a.
Core profit below forecast RS reported net profit of Bt47mn. Excluding an accounting gain from the change of the license payment period of Bt45.5mn, core profit was Bt11mn, 73% below our forecast on lower revenue than expected. We think RS has just begun recovering after three consecutive quarters with losses. TV and H&B (healthcare and beauty) business is the key growth driver going forward. Maintain our Buy rating. TV and H&B showed YoY improvement Total revenue dropped 38%YoY due mainly to much lower revenue from event business, which dropped from Bt643mn last year to Bt41mn in 1Q17. However, media business increased 5%YoY, driven by an increase in the ad rate of CH8 by 30%YoY. Revenue from H&B business jumped 138%YoY as the company successfully boosted sales through the call center. However, the gross margin dipped from 34.5% in 1Q16 to 32.3% due to higher cost of media. Extra item saved the bottom line Net profit of Bt47mn included an accounting gain from the change of the license payment period that was around Bt45.5mn. SG&A declined by 18% to Bt216mn (which was also below our forecast), which helped support the bottom line. Recovery to continue in 2Q17 Nielsen survey reported that Adex on digital TV grew by 4.3% in April, in contrast to that of traditional TV, which continued to head down by 16%. We think RS will report earnings improvement both YoY and QoQ in the next quarter with the help of both TV and H&B business. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt)
2014 4,306 341 0.38 ‐13.6% 0.30 1.70
2015 3,729 122 0.12 ‐68.0% 0.10 1.78
2016 3,125 (102) (0.10) ‐186.3% 0.00 1.09
2017E 2,976 144 0.15 ‐242.9% 0.00 1.23
2018E 3,361 369 0.38 156.4% 0.15 1.62
FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2014 24.00 5.00 5.33 3.3% 21.7% ‐21%
2015 74.92 11.91 5.10 1.1% 7.2% ‐43%
2016 ‐86.29 27.05 8.29 0.0% ‐7.4% 102%
2017E 60.73 10.27 7.33 0.0% 12.8% 92%
2018E 23.68 7.59 5.60 1.7% 26.8% 56%
Anapat Wanuschaiyapruk Analyst, no 57076 [email protected] 66 (0) 2-624‐6236
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
Figure 1: RS’s 1Q17 earnings review Profit and Loss (Btmn) Year‐end 31 Dec Revenue Gross profit EBITDA Interest expense Other income Income tax Other extraordinary Items Net profit (loss) Core profit (loss) Reported EPS (Bt) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Net margin (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Debt / equity (x) BVPS (Bt) ROE (%)
Sources: RS, KT Zmico Research
1Q16
4Q16
1Q17
% YoY
% QoQ
2017E
% YoY
YTD
1,217 419 246 (17) 2 (33) 0 107
446 14 (122) (24) 109 23 89 (63)
752 243 168 (24) 14 (14) 45 47
(38.2) (42.1) (31.4) 36.2 465.1 (56.3) n.m. (56.0)
68.7 1,588.8 (238.3) (2.8) (87.4) (162.5) n.m. (174.5)
2,976 1,092 804 (114) 30 (36) 0 144
(4.8) 37.6 164.9 37.2 (8.2) (248.5) n.m. (241.0)
25.3 22.2 20.9 20.8 45.5 39.5 n.m. 32.6
107 0.11 34.5 20.2 8.8 1.0 8.9 (0.3) 1.7 6.3
(152) (0.07) 3.2 (27.3) (34.1) 0.5 (10.6) 1.0 1.1 (5.8)
11 0.05 32.3 22.4 1.5 0.7 1.1 0.8 1.1 4.4
(89.7) (54.3)
(107.2) (174.3)
144 0.15 36.7 27.0 4.8 0.4 2.3 0.9 1.2 12.8
(175.4) (242.9)
7.6 32.6
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
FINANCIAL TABLE PROFIT & LOSS (Btmn) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Extra Items Non‐controlling Net profit Reported EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt) BALANCE SHEET (Btmn) Cash and equivalents Accounts receivable Inventories Investment PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long‐term debt Total liabilities Paid‐up shares Shareholder equity Total liab. & shareholder equity CASH FLOW (Btmn) Net income Non‐cash adjustment Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Others Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt) PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%)
2013 3,461 (2,109) 1,352 (873) 758 (278) 479 (17) 14 476 (84) 0 2 394 0.44 394 0.44 0.35
2014 4,306 (2,941) 1,365 (835) 1,608 (1,078) 530 (78) 23 475 (107) 0 (27) 341 0.38 341 0.38 0.30
2013 572 1,068 39 5 1,055 210 2,950 292 13 1,364 1,026 1,585 2,950
2014 382 1,101 107 5 2,698 289 4,582 8 5 2,838 1,026 1,743 4,582
2013 392 7 278 294 971 (473) 0 (473) (125) 148 (272) 8 (240) 259 499 0.52
2018E 363 696 109 4 2,489 548 4,210 912 325 2,637 1,010 1,573 4,210
2017E 144 0 540 (265) 419 (440) 0 (440) 44 0 0 0 44 23 (21) (0.02)
2016 ‐16.2% ‐50.4% ‐236.5% 25.4% 11.0% ‐4.0% ‐3.3% ‐5.1% 13.2%
2018E 3,361 (1,963) 1,398 (860) 1,089 (551) 538 (106) 30 462 (92) 0 0 369 0.38 369 0.38 0.15
2017E 127 617 105 4 2,591 529 3,972 762 469 2,769 1,010 1,203 3,972
2016 (102) 43 468 (1,029) (620) (611) 11 (599) 1,131 0 (100) (465) 565 (653) (1,219) (1.26)
2015 ‐13.4% ‐54.5% ‐58.7% 27.4% 19.6% 4.9% 3.3% 4.2% ‐8.0%
2017E 2,976 (1,884) 1,092 (828) 804 (540) 264 (114) 30 180 (36) 0 0 144 0.15 144 0.15 0.00
2016 104 648 130 4 2,691 563 4,139 718 469 3,080 1,010 1,060 4,139
2015 132 42 547 470 1,191 (666) 9 (657) (10) 0 (181) 33 (158) 376 534 0.53
2014 24.4% 112.3% ‐13.6% 31.7% 37.3% 12.3% 7.9% 7.9% 22.6%
2016 3,125 (2,331) 794 (959) 304 (468) (165) (83) 33 (215) 24 89 0 (102) (0.10) (191) (0.20) 0.00
2015 757 876 163 5 2,510 533 4,844 6 7 3,117 1,014 1,727 4,844
2014 368 0 1,078 (93) 1,354 (1,033) 0 (1,032) (293) 100 (311) (8) (512) (191) 321 0.33
2013 23.1% 70.1% 34.0% 39.1% 21.9% 13.9% 11.4% 11.4% 17.6%
2015 3,729 (2,707) 1,022 (837) 731 (547) 184 (81) 51 155 12 (35) (10) 122 0.12 157 0.16 0.10
2018E 369 0 551 (241) 679 (449) 0 (449) 6 0 0 0 6 236 230 0.24
2017E ‐4.8% 133.7% ‐192.0% 36.7% 27.0% 8.9% 4.8% 4.8% 20.0%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
2018E 12.9% 35.4% 156.4% 41.6% 32.4% 16.0% 11.0% 11.0% 20.0%
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, M‐CHAI, POMPUI, TFD, TTL, NMG, NUSA.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Pass (scores: 50 – 59) No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC) Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy DISCLAIMER
This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's returns over a six‐month period due to specific coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
KT ZMICO Securities Company Limited Head Office
WWW.KTZMICO.COM
8th, 15th‐17th,19th, 21st Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok, Thailand 10500 Telephone: (66‐2) 695‐5000 Fax: (66‐2) 695‐5173 KT ZMICO Connect 662 695 5555
Central World Branch
Amarin Branch
22nd Floor, Amarin Building, 496‐502 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 018‐6200 Fax: (66‐2) 018‐6298, (66‐2) 018‐6299
8th Floor, Ton Son Tower, 900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 626‐6000 Fax: (66‐2) 626‐6111
Phaholyothin Branch
Sindhorn Branch
Viphavadee Branch
2nd Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130‐132 Wireless Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 627‐3550 Fax: (66‐2) 627‐3582, 627‐3600
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg., 333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee‐Rangsit Road, Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900 Telephone: (66‐2) 013‐8600 Fax: (66‐2) 618‐8569
BangKhae Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Pak Chong Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World, 16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 264‐5888 Fax: (66‐2) 264 5899
1291/1, Shinnawatra Tower II, 3rd Floor, Phaholyothin Road, Phayathai, Bangkok 10400 Telephone: (66‐2) 686‐1500 Fax: (66‐2) 686‐1666
Ploenchit Branch
518 The Mall Group Building Bangkhae Branch, 6th Floor, Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Telephone: (66‐2) 454‐9979 Fax: (66‐2) 454‐9970
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang, Chiang Mai 50100 Telephone: (053) 270‐072 Fax: (053) 272‐618
173 175, Mittapap Road, Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Telephone: (044) 279‐511 Fax: (044) 279‐574
Korat Branch
Khon Kaen Branch
Chonburi Branch
624/9 Changphuek Road, T.Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel, 260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang, A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000 Telephone: (043) 389‐171‐193 Fax: (043) 389‐209
4th Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg., 870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy, A. Muang, Cholburi 20000 Telephone: (038) 287‐635 Fax: (038) 287‐637
Pattaya Branch
Chachoengsao Branch
Hat Yai Branch
Easy Point 2, 392/65 Moo.9, T.Nong Prue, A. Bang Lamung, Chonburi 20260 Telephone: (038) 420‐965 Fax: (038) 420‐968
108/34‐36 Mahajakkrapad Road, T.Namuang, A.Muang, Chachoengsao 24000 Telephone: (038) 813‐088 Fax: (038) 813‐099
200/301, 200/303 JULDIS HATYAI PLAZA Floor 3 , Niphat‐Uthit 3 Rd, Hatyai Songkhla 90110 Telephone: (074) 355530‐3 Fax: (074) 355534
Phuket Branch
22/61‐63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road, Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket, Phuket 83000 Telephone: (076) 222‐811, (076) 222‐683 Fax: (076) 222‐861
Phitsanulok Branch
227/171 Borom Trilokkanat Road, Muang, Phitsanulok 65000 Telephone: 055‐219‐255 to 8 Fax: 055‐219‐259
Nakhon Pathom
Cyber Branch Ayutthaya
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
Cyber Branch Chiangrai
KrungThai Bank, Rojana Branch 253 Moo 5, Rojana Road, Phai Ling, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, Phra Nakhonsi Ayutthaya, 13000 Telephone: 035‐242‐477 Fax: 035‐242‐476
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd., Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District , Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083‐490‐2871
River Hotel (Building 3rd),1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
KrungThai Bank, Hayaek Phokhun Mengrai Branch 116/19 Moo 19, Highway 110 Road, Rop Wiang, Mueang Chiang Rai, Chiang Rai, 57000 Telephone: 053‐715‐067 Fax: 053‐715‐068
Buy (17E TP Bt10.70)
Earnings Review
Close Bt8.85
Media & Publishing May 16, 2017
Beat forecast/Below forecast/In‐line
Recovery has just begun Results date: May 15, 2017 Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY17
FY18
Consensus EPS (Bt)
0.136
0.311
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
10.3%
22.2%
Reuters / Bloomberg
RS.BK/RS TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
1,009.94
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
9.00/259.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/3.73
52 week High / Low (Bt)
12.10/5.95
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
3,599.00 4.82
Estimated free float (%)
46.59
Beta
1.31
URL
www.rs.co.th
CGR
Anti‐corruption
n.a.
Core profit below forecast RS reported net profit of Bt47mn. Excluding an accounting gain from the change of the license payment period of Bt45.5mn, core profit was Bt11mn, 73% below our forecast on lower revenue than expected. We think RS has just begun recovering after three consecutive quarters with losses. TV and H&B (healthcare and beauty) business is the key growth driver going forward. Maintain our Buy rating. TV and H&B showed YoY improvement Total revenue dropped 38%YoY due mainly to much lower revenue from event business, which dropped from Bt643mn last year to Bt41mn in 1Q17. However, media business increased 5%YoY, driven by an increase in the ad rate of CH8 by 30%YoY. Revenue from H&B business jumped 138%YoY as the company successfully boosted sales through the call center. However, the gross margin dipped from 34.5% in 1Q16 to 32.3% due to higher cost of media. Extra item saved the bottom line Net profit of Bt47mn included an accounting gain from the change of the license payment period that was around Bt45.5mn. SG&A declined by 18% to Bt216mn (which was also below our forecast), which helped support the bottom line. Recovery to continue in 2Q17 Nielsen survey reported that Adex on digital TV grew by 4.3% in April, in contrast to that of traditional TV, which continued to head down by 16%. We think RS will report earnings improvement both YoY and QoQ in the next quarter with the help of both TV and H&B business. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt)
2014 4,306 341 0.38 ‐13.6% 0.30 1.70
2015 3,729 122 0.12 ‐68.0% 0.10 1.78
2016 3,125 (102) (0.10) ‐186.3% 0.00 1.09
2017E 2,976 144 0.15 ‐242.9% 0.00 1.23
2018E 3,361 369 0.38 156.4% 0.15 1.62
FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2014 24.00 5.00 5.33 3.3% 21.7% ‐21%
2015 74.92 11.91 5.10 1.1% 7.2% ‐43%
2016 ‐86.29 27.05 8.29 0.0% ‐7.4% 102%
2017E 60.73 10.27 7.33 0.0% 12.8% 92%
2018E 23.68 7.59 5.60 1.7% 26.8% 56%
Anapat Wanuschaiyapruk Analyst, no 57076 [email protected] 66 (0) 2-624‐6236
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
Figure 1: RS’s 1Q17 earnings review Profit and Loss (Btmn) Year‐end 31 Dec Revenue Gross profit EBITDA Interest expense Other income Income tax Other extraordinary Items Net profit (loss) Core profit (loss) Reported EPS (Bt) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Net margin (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Debt / equity (x) BVPS (Bt) ROE (%)
Sources: RS, KT Zmico Research
1Q16
4Q16
1Q17
% YoY
% QoQ
2017E
% YoY
YTD
1,217 419 246 (17) 2 (33) 0 107
446 14 (122) (24) 109 23 89 (63)
752 243 168 (24) 14 (14) 45 47
(38.2) (42.1) (31.4) 36.2 465.1 (56.3) n.m. (56.0)
68.7 1,588.8 (238.3) (2.8) (87.4) (162.5) n.m. (174.5)
2,976 1,092 804 (114) 30 (36) 0 144
(4.8) 37.6 164.9 37.2 (8.2) (248.5) n.m. (241.0)
25.3 22.2 20.9 20.8 45.5 39.5 n.m. 32.6
107 0.11 34.5 20.2 8.8 1.0 8.9 (0.3) 1.7 6.3
(152) (0.07) 3.2 (27.3) (34.1) 0.5 (10.6) 1.0 1.1 (5.8)
11 0.05 32.3 22.4 1.5 0.7 1.1 0.8 1.1 4.4
(89.7) (54.3)
(107.2) (174.3)
144 0.15 36.7 27.0 4.8 0.4 2.3 0.9 1.2 12.8
(175.4) (242.9)
7.6 32.6
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
FINANCIAL TABLE PROFIT & LOSS (Btmn) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Extra Items Non‐controlling Net profit Reported EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt) BALANCE SHEET (Btmn) Cash and equivalents Accounts receivable Inventories Investment PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long‐term debt Total liabilities Paid‐up shares Shareholder equity Total liab. & shareholder equity CASH FLOW (Btmn) Net income Non‐cash adjustment Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Others Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt) PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%)
2013 3,461 (2,109) 1,352 (873) 758 (278) 479 (17) 14 476 (84) 0 2 394 0.44 394 0.44 0.35
2014 4,306 (2,941) 1,365 (835) 1,608 (1,078) 530 (78) 23 475 (107) 0 (27) 341 0.38 341 0.38 0.30
2013 572 1,068 39 5 1,055 210 2,950 292 13 1,364 1,026 1,585 2,950
2014 382 1,101 107 5 2,698 289 4,582 8 5 2,838 1,026 1,743 4,582
2013 392 7 278 294 971 (473) 0 (473) (125) 148 (272) 8 (240) 259 499 0.52
2018E 363 696 109 4 2,489 548 4,210 912 325 2,637 1,010 1,573 4,210
2017E 144 0 540 (265) 419 (440) 0 (440) 44 0 0 0 44 23 (21) (0.02)
2016 ‐16.2% ‐50.4% ‐236.5% 25.4% 11.0% ‐4.0% ‐3.3% ‐5.1% 13.2%
2018E 3,361 (1,963) 1,398 (860) 1,089 (551) 538 (106) 30 462 (92) 0 0 369 0.38 369 0.38 0.15
2017E 127 617 105 4 2,591 529 3,972 762 469 2,769 1,010 1,203 3,972
2016 (102) 43 468 (1,029) (620) (611) 11 (599) 1,131 0 (100) (465) 565 (653) (1,219) (1.26)
2015 ‐13.4% ‐54.5% ‐58.7% 27.4% 19.6% 4.9% 3.3% 4.2% ‐8.0%
2017E 2,976 (1,884) 1,092 (828) 804 (540) 264 (114) 30 180 (36) 0 0 144 0.15 144 0.15 0.00
2016 104 648 130 4 2,691 563 4,139 718 469 3,080 1,010 1,060 4,139
2015 132 42 547 470 1,191 (666) 9 (657) (10) 0 (181) 33 (158) 376 534 0.53
2014 24.4% 112.3% ‐13.6% 31.7% 37.3% 12.3% 7.9% 7.9% 22.6%
2016 3,125 (2,331) 794 (959) 304 (468) (165) (83) 33 (215) 24 89 0 (102) (0.10) (191) (0.20) 0.00
2015 757 876 163 5 2,510 533 4,844 6 7 3,117 1,014 1,727 4,844
2014 368 0 1,078 (93) 1,354 (1,033) 0 (1,032) (293) 100 (311) (8) (512) (191) 321 0.33
2013 23.1% 70.1% 34.0% 39.1% 21.9% 13.9% 11.4% 11.4% 17.6%
2015 3,729 (2,707) 1,022 (837) 731 (547) 184 (81) 51 155 12 (35) (10) 122 0.12 157 0.16 0.10
2018E 369 0 551 (241) 679 (449) 0 (449) 6 0 0 0 6 236 230 0.24
2017E ‐4.8% 133.7% ‐192.0% 36.7% 27.0% 8.9% 4.8% 4.8% 20.0%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
2018E 12.9% 35.4% 156.4% 41.6% 32.4% 16.0% 11.0% 11.0% 20.0%
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, M‐CHAI, POMPUI, TFD, TTL, NMG, NUSA.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Pass (scores: 50 – 59) No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC) Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy DISCLAIMER
This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's returns over a six‐month period due to specific coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
KT ZMICO Securities Company Limited Head Office
WWW.KTZMICO.COM
8th, 15th‐17th,19th, 21st Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok, Thailand 10500 Telephone: (66‐2) 695‐5000 Fax: (66‐2) 695‐5173 KT ZMICO Connect 662 695 5555
Central World Branch
Amarin Branch
22nd Floor, Amarin Building, 496‐502 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 018‐6200 Fax: (66‐2) 018‐6298, (66‐2) 018‐6299
8th Floor, Ton Son Tower, 900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 626‐6000 Fax: (66‐2) 626‐6111
Phaholyothin Branch
Sindhorn Branch
Viphavadee Branch
2nd Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130‐132 Wireless Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 627‐3550 Fax: (66‐2) 627‐3582, 627‐3600
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg., 333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee‐Rangsit Road, Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900 Telephone: (66‐2) 013‐8600 Fax: (66‐2) 618‐8569
BangKhae Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Pak Chong Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World, 16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 264‐5888 Fax: (66‐2) 264 5899
1291/1, Shinnawatra Tower II, 3rd Floor, Phaholyothin Road, Phayathai, Bangkok 10400 Telephone: (66‐2) 686‐1500 Fax: (66‐2) 686‐1666
Ploenchit Branch
518 The Mall Group Building Bangkhae Branch, 6th Floor, Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Telephone: (66‐2) 454‐9979 Fax: (66‐2) 454‐9970
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang, Chiang Mai 50100 Telephone: (053) 270‐072 Fax: (053) 272‐618
173 175, Mittapap Road, Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Telephone: (044) 279‐511 Fax: (044) 279‐574
Korat Branch
Khon Kaen Branch
Chonburi Branch
624/9 Changphuek Road, T.Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel, 260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang, A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000 Telephone: (043) 389‐171‐193 Fax: (043) 389‐209
4th Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg., 870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy, A. Muang, Cholburi 20000 Telephone: (038) 287‐635 Fax: (038) 287‐637
Pattaya Branch
Chachoengsao Branch
Hat Yai Branch
Easy Point 2, 392/65 Moo.9, T.Nong Prue, A. Bang Lamung, Chonburi 20260 Telephone: (038) 420‐965 Fax: (038) 420‐968
108/34‐36 Mahajakkrapad Road, T.Namuang, A.Muang, Chachoengsao 24000 Telephone: (038) 813‐088 Fax: (038) 813‐099
200/301, 200/303 JULDIS HATYAI PLAZA Floor 3 , Niphat‐Uthit 3 Rd, Hatyai Songkhla 90110 Telephone: (074) 355530‐3 Fax: (074) 355534
Phuket Branch
22/61‐63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road, Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket, Phuket 83000 Telephone: (076) 222‐811, (076) 222‐683 Fax: (076) 222‐861
Phitsanulok Branch
227/171 Borom Trilokkanat Road, Muang, Phitsanulok 65000 Telephone: 055‐219‐255 to 8 Fax: 055‐219‐259
Nakhon Pathom
Cyber Branch Ayutthaya
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
Cyber Branch Chiangrai
KrungThai Bank, Rojana Branch 253 Moo 5, Rojana Road, Phai Ling, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, Phra Nakhonsi Ayutthaya, 13000 Telephone: 035‐242‐477 Fax: 035‐242‐476
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd., Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District , Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083‐490‐2871
River Hotel (Building 3rd),1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
KrungThai Bank, Hayaek Phokhun Mengrai Branch 116/19 Moo 19, Highway 110 Road, Rop Wiang, Mueang Chiang Rai, Chiang Rai, 57000 Telephone: 053‐715‐067 Fax: 053‐715‐068
