Buy (17E TP Bt26.00) Company Update
SPCG Company Update
Buy (17E TP Bt26.00) Close Bt20.60
Energy & Utilities May 15, 2017
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
Net profit increased on extra gain and lower interest expenses Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY17
FY18
Consensus EPS (Bt)
2.832
3.050
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐1.5%
‐3%
Reuters / Bloomberg
SPCG.BK/SPCG TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
923.99
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
19.00/549.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/19.47
52 week High / Low (Bt)
23.00/18.70
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
1,607.00 2.66
Estimated free float (%)
39.53
Beta
0.60
URL
www.spcg.co.th
CGR
Anti‐corruption
n.a.
Anapat Wanuschaiyapruk Analyst, no 57076 [email protected] 66 (0) 2-624‐6289
Solid earnings in 1Q17 The company continued showing strong earnings, with 1Q17 net profit growing by +7.3% QoQ and +10.7% YoY. The drivers were extra gain from sales of investment and lower interest expenses. We still see a better outlook in 2Q17 due to the COD of solar farms in Japan. As such, we maintain “Buy” with the 17E TP of Bt26.00. Slight improvement of energy output while EPC revenue dropped QoQ The revenue from sales of electricity declined 1.9%YoY on lower Ft. but increased 2.8%QoQ on a better utilization rate. Energy output was 102.7GWh, +0.7%YoY and +2.5%QoQ, due to more favorable weather. The base tariff plus Ft. was around Bt3.10/kWh in 1Q17, declining from Bt3.38 in 1Q16 but increasing from Bt3.07 in the previous quarter. We see an upward trend of Ft. but think the escalation will be quite limited due to soft oil prices. Total revenue decreased sharply by ‐29.3% QoQ, attributable to significantly lower revenue from the installation of solar rooftops, which dropped from Bt645mn in 4Q16 to Bt75mn in 1Q17 but soared from Bt25mn in 1Q16 (+200%YoY but ‐88% QoQ). Fairly strong net profit Net profit rose +7.3% QoQ and +10.7% YoY, predominantly stemming from extra gain from the sale of investment of Bt27mn and lower interest expenses (‐19%YoY and ‐15%QoQ) as the company continues to pay off their debt. Better prospects...maintain “Buy” With current net profit accounting for 26% of our 17E forecast, we deem that the company will post better profit this year since there is a 30 MW solar farm in Japan—Totori—that will COD in 2Q17. Moreover, the company continues to pay off its debt, which is a good sign indicating further improvement in the company’s performance. Therefore, we maintain our recommendation of “Buy”. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2014 4,357 1,656 1.79 231.6% 0.85 6.26 2014 11.50 9.00 3.29 4.1% 39.3% 214%
2015 5,000 2,190 2.37 32.3% 1.25 7.76 2015 8.69 7.83 2.65 6.1% 33.8% 143%
2016 5,448 2,314 2.50 5.7% 1.10 8.98 2016 8.22 7.75 2.29 5.3% 29.9% 102%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
2017E 5,042 2,575 2.79 11.3% 1.15 10.65 2017E 7.39 7.31 1.94 5.6% 28.4% 65%
2018E 5,048 2,733 2.96 6.1% 1.20 12.44 2018E 6.97 7.32 1.66 5.8% 25.6% 37%
Figure 1: SPCG’s 1Q17 earnings result Profit and Loss (Btmn) Year‐end 31 Dec
1Q16 1,222 935 1,036 (194) 9 1 (0) 610 610 0.66 76.5 84.8 49.9 2.1 4.5 1.2 8.4 32.6
Revenue Gross profit EBITDA Interest expense Other income Income tax Gn (Ls) from affiliates Net profit (loss) Core profit (loss) Reported EPS (Bt) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Net margin (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Debt / equity (x) BVPS (Bt) ROE (%)
4Q16 1,793 920 1,012 (176) 44 (11) 0 630 630 0.68 51.3 56.4 35.1 1.3 4.8 1.0 10.6 31.5
1Q17 1,268 944 1,038 (157) 34 (0) (0) 675 675 0.73 74.4 81.9 53.3 1.4 5.6 0.9 11.4 31.3
% YoY 3.7 0.9 0.2 (18.9) 298.3 (101.9) (36.1) 10.7 10.7 10.7
% QoQ (29.3) 2.5 2.6 (10.6) (23.5) (99.9) (157.5) 7.3 7.3 7.6
2017E 5,042 3,745 4,154 (628) 50 (10) (1) 2,575 2,575 2.79 74.3 82.4 51.1 1.3 5.6 0.6 10.6 28.4
YTD (% 2017E) 25.1 25.2 25.0 25.1 68.0 0.1 24.6 26.2 26.2 26.2
% YoY (7.5) 6.2 6.0 (15.8) (48.0) 5.8 63.7 11.3 11.3 11.3
Sources: SPCG, KT Zmico Research
Figure 2: SPCG’s PER band
Figure 3: SPCG’s PBV band
(X)
(X)
18
6.0
16 +2 S.D.
14 12
5.0 +1 S.D.
10
4.0
+0.5 S.D.
8 6
Avg. -0.5 S.D.
3.0
-1 S.D.
2.0
-2 S.D.
1.0
+2 S.D. +1 S.D. +0.5 S.D. Avg. -0.5 S.D. -1 S.D.
4
Source: Bloomberg, KT Zmico Research
Source: Bloomberg, KT Zmico Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
Jan-17
Oct-16
Jul-16
Apr-16
Jan-16
Oct-15
Jul-15
Apr-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
Jul-14
0.0 Apr-14
Jan-17
Oct-16
Jul-16
Apr-16
Jan-16
Oct-15
Jul-15
Apr-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
Jul-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
0
Jan-14
2
FINANCIAL TABLE PROFIT & LOSS (Btmn) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Gain (loss) from affiliates FX gain (loss) Non‐controlling Net profit Reported EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt) BALANCE SHEET (Btmn) Cash and equivalents Accounts receivable Inventories Investment PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long‐term debt Total liabilities Paid‐up shares Shareholder equity Total liab. & shareholder equity CASH FLOW (Btmn) Net income Non‐cash adjustment Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Others Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt) PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%)
2013 2,473 (806) 1,667 (403) 1,610 (347) 1,263 (605) 42 700 (64) 19 (10) (145) 499 0.54 499 0.54 0.00
2014 4,357 (1,167) 3,190 (384) 3,373 (566) 2,806 (979) 30 1,858 10 (1) 23 (234) 1,656 1.79 1,656 1.79 0.85
2015 5,000 (1,359) 3,641 (406) 3,878 (643) 3,235 (898) 58 2,394 72 (1) 0 (275) 2,190 2.37 2,190 2.37 1.25
2016 5,448 (1,920) 3,528 (252) 3,921 (644) 3,277 (745) 96 2,628 (9) (1) 0 (303) 2,314 2.50 2,314 2.50 1.10
2013 289 621 667 5 19,022 1,897 22,501 1,485 15,161 18,988 840 3,513 22,501
2014 2,834 1,022 428 4 18,887 2,396 25,571 2,473 15,542 18,470 924 7,100 25,571
2015 3,710 941 216 472 18,434 964 24,736 2,476 13,321 16,265 924 8,470 24,736
2016 3,360 972 581 471 17,865 983 24,232 2,706 10,615 14,466 924 9,766 24,232
2013 644 (0) 347 88 1,079 (8,427) (178) (8,605) 7,452 280 0 10 7,743 216 (7,526) (8.15)
2014 1,890 22 566 (895) 1,583 (6,397) 4,464 (1,933) 1,258 1,842 (370) 165 2,896 2,546 (350) (0.38)
2015 2,465 1 643 302 3,411 (220) 145 (75) (2,236) 0 (822) (290) (3,348) (12) 3,336 3.61
2016 2,617 (45) 644 352 3,568 (91) 789 698 (2,483) 0 (1,229) (170) (3,882) 384 4,266 4.62
2013 103.6% 197.0% 823.5% 67.4% 65.1% 51.1% 20.2% 20.2% 9.2%
2014 76.2% 109.4% 231.6% 73.2% 77.4% 64.4% 38.0% 38.0% ‐0.5%
2015 14.8% 15.0% 32.3% 72.8% 77.6% 64.7% 43.8% 43.8% ‐3.0%
2016 9.0% 1.1% 5.7% 64.8% 72.0% 60.1% 42.5% 42.5% 0.4%
2017E 5,042 (1,297) 3,745 (253) 4,154 (662) 3,492 (628) 50 2,915 (10) (1) 0 (328) 2,575 2.79 2,575 2.79 1.15
2017E 3,740 829 593 470 17,234 985 23,850 2,951 8,251 12,347 924 11,503 23,850
2018E 5,048 (1,306) 3,742 (257) 4,147 (662) 3,485 (498) 50 3,037 (18) 55 0 (341) 2,733 2.96 2,733 2.96 1.20 2018E 3,265 830 604 470 16,602 987 22,759 2,951 5,301 9,397 924 13,362 22,759
2017E 2,904 1 662 129 3,695 (30) 0 (30) (2,119) 0 (1,166) 0 (3,285) 380 3,665 3.97
2018E 3,074 (55) 662 (15) 3,666 (30) 55 25 (2,950) 0 (1,215) 0 (4,165) (475) 3,690 3.99
2017E ‐7.5% 6.0% 11.3% 74.3% 82.4% 69.3% 51.1% 51.1% 0.3%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
2018E 0.1% ‐0.2% 6.1% 74.1% 82.1% 69.0% 54.1% 54.1% 0.6%
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, M‐CHAI, POMPUI, TFD, TTL, NMG.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Pass (scores: 50 – 59) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC) Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy DISCLAIMER
This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's returns over a six‐month period due to specific coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
KT ZMICO Securities Company Limited Head Office
WWW.KTZMICO.COM
8th, 15th‐17th,19th, 21st Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok, Thailand 10500 Telephone: (66‐2) 695‐5000 Fax: (66‐2) 695‐5173 KT ZMICO Connect 662 695 5555
Central World Branch
Amarin Branch
22nd Floor, Amarin Building, 496‐502 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 018‐6200 Fax: (66‐2) 018‐6298, (66‐2) 018‐6299
8th Floor, Ton Son Tower, 900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 626‐6000 Fax: (66‐2) 626‐6111
Phaholyothin Branch
Sindhorn Branch
Viphavadee Branch
2nd Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130‐132 Wireless Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 627‐3550 Fax: (66‐2) 627‐3582, 627‐3600
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg., 333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee‐Rangsit Road, Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900 Telephone: (66‐2) 013‐8600 Fax: (66‐2) 618‐8569
BangKhae Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Pak Chong Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World, 16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 264‐5888 Fax: (66‐2) 264 5899
1291/1, Shinnawatra Tower II, 3rd Floor, Phaholyothin Road, Phayathai, Bangkok 10400 Telephone: (66‐2) 686‐1500 Fax: (66‐2) 686‐1666
Ploenchit Branch
518 The Mall Group Building Bangkhae Branch, 6th Floor, Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Telephone: (66‐2) 454‐9979 Fax: (66‐2) 454‐9970
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang, Chiang Mai 50100 Telephone: (053) 270‐072 Fax: (053) 272‐618
173 175, Mittapap Road, Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Telephone: (044) 279‐511 Fax: (044) 279‐574
Korat Branch
Khon Kaen Branch
Chonburi Branch
624/9 Changphuek Road, T.Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel, 260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang, A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000 Telephone: (043) 389‐171‐193 Fax: (043) 389‐209
4th Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg., 870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy, A. Muang, Cholburi 20000 Telephone: (038) 287‐635 Fax: (038) 287‐637
Pattaya Branch
Chachoengsao Branch
Hat Yai Branch
Easy Point 2, 392/65 Moo.9, T.Nong Prue, A. Bang Lamung, Chonburi 20260 Telephone: (038) 420‐965 Fax: (038) 420‐968
108/34‐36 Mahajakkrapad Road, T.Namuang, A.Muang, Chachoengsao 24000 Telephone: (038) 813‐088 Fax: (038) 813‐099
200/301, 200/303 JULDIS HATYAI PLAZA Floor 3 , Niphat‐Uthit 3 Rd, Hatyai Songkhla 90110 Telephone: (074) 355530‐3 Fax: (074) 355534
Phuket Branch
22/61‐63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road, Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket, Phuket 83000 Telephone: (076) 222‐811, (076) 222‐683 Fax: (076) 222‐861
Phitsanulok Branch
227/171 Borom Trilokkanat Road, Muang, Phitsanulok 65000 Telephone: 055‐219‐255 to 8 Fax: 055‐219‐259
Nakhon Pathom
Cyber Branch Ayutthaya
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
Cyber Branch Chiangrai
KrungThai Bank, Rojana Branch 253 Moo 5, Rojana Road, Phai Ling, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, Phra Nakhonsi Ayutthaya, 13000 Telephone: 035‐242‐477 Fax: 035‐242‐476
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd., Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District , Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083‐490‐2871
River Hotel (Building 3rd),1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
KrungThai Bank, Hayaek Phokhun Mengrai Branch 116/19 Moo 19, Highway 110 Road, Rop Wiang, Mueang Chiang Rai, Chiang Rai, 57000 Telephone: 053‐715‐067 Fax: 053‐715‐068
Buy (17E TP Bt26.00) Close Bt20.60
Energy & Utilities May 15, 2017
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
Net profit increased on extra gain and lower interest expenses Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY17
FY18
Consensus EPS (Bt)
2.832
3.050
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐1.5%
‐3%
Reuters / Bloomberg
SPCG.BK/SPCG TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
923.99
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
19.00/549.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/19.47
52 week High / Low (Bt)
23.00/18.70
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
1,607.00 2.66
Estimated free float (%)
39.53
Beta
0.60
URL
www.spcg.co.th
CGR
Anti‐corruption
n.a.
Anapat Wanuschaiyapruk Analyst, no 57076 [email protected] 66 (0) 2-624‐6289
Solid earnings in 1Q17 The company continued showing strong earnings, with 1Q17 net profit growing by +7.3% QoQ and +10.7% YoY. The drivers were extra gain from sales of investment and lower interest expenses. We still see a better outlook in 2Q17 due to the COD of solar farms in Japan. As such, we maintain “Buy” with the 17E TP of Bt26.00. Slight improvement of energy output while EPC revenue dropped QoQ The revenue from sales of electricity declined 1.9%YoY on lower Ft. but increased 2.8%QoQ on a better utilization rate. Energy output was 102.7GWh, +0.7%YoY and +2.5%QoQ, due to more favorable weather. The base tariff plus Ft. was around Bt3.10/kWh in 1Q17, declining from Bt3.38 in 1Q16 but increasing from Bt3.07 in the previous quarter. We see an upward trend of Ft. but think the escalation will be quite limited due to soft oil prices. Total revenue decreased sharply by ‐29.3% QoQ, attributable to significantly lower revenue from the installation of solar rooftops, which dropped from Bt645mn in 4Q16 to Bt75mn in 1Q17 but soared from Bt25mn in 1Q16 (+200%YoY but ‐88% QoQ). Fairly strong net profit Net profit rose +7.3% QoQ and +10.7% YoY, predominantly stemming from extra gain from the sale of investment of Bt27mn and lower interest expenses (‐19%YoY and ‐15%QoQ) as the company continues to pay off their debt. Better prospects...maintain “Buy” With current net profit accounting for 26% of our 17E forecast, we deem that the company will post better profit this year since there is a 30 MW solar farm in Japan—Totori—that will COD in 2Q17. Moreover, the company continues to pay off its debt, which is a good sign indicating further improvement in the company’s performance. Therefore, we maintain our recommendation of “Buy”. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2014 4,357 1,656 1.79 231.6% 0.85 6.26 2014 11.50 9.00 3.29 4.1% 39.3% 214%
2015 5,000 2,190 2.37 32.3% 1.25 7.76 2015 8.69 7.83 2.65 6.1% 33.8% 143%
2016 5,448 2,314 2.50 5.7% 1.10 8.98 2016 8.22 7.75 2.29 5.3% 29.9% 102%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
2017E 5,042 2,575 2.79 11.3% 1.15 10.65 2017E 7.39 7.31 1.94 5.6% 28.4% 65%
2018E 5,048 2,733 2.96 6.1% 1.20 12.44 2018E 6.97 7.32 1.66 5.8% 25.6% 37%
Figure 1: SPCG’s 1Q17 earnings result Profit and Loss (Btmn) Year‐end 31 Dec
1Q16 1,222 935 1,036 (194) 9 1 (0) 610 610 0.66 76.5 84.8 49.9 2.1 4.5 1.2 8.4 32.6
Revenue Gross profit EBITDA Interest expense Other income Income tax Gn (Ls) from affiliates Net profit (loss) Core profit (loss) Reported EPS (Bt) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Net margin (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Debt / equity (x) BVPS (Bt) ROE (%)
4Q16 1,793 920 1,012 (176) 44 (11) 0 630 630 0.68 51.3 56.4 35.1 1.3 4.8 1.0 10.6 31.5
1Q17 1,268 944 1,038 (157) 34 (0) (0) 675 675 0.73 74.4 81.9 53.3 1.4 5.6 0.9 11.4 31.3
% YoY 3.7 0.9 0.2 (18.9) 298.3 (101.9) (36.1) 10.7 10.7 10.7
% QoQ (29.3) 2.5 2.6 (10.6) (23.5) (99.9) (157.5) 7.3 7.3 7.6
2017E 5,042 3,745 4,154 (628) 50 (10) (1) 2,575 2,575 2.79 74.3 82.4 51.1 1.3 5.6 0.6 10.6 28.4
YTD (% 2017E) 25.1 25.2 25.0 25.1 68.0 0.1 24.6 26.2 26.2 26.2
% YoY (7.5) 6.2 6.0 (15.8) (48.0) 5.8 63.7 11.3 11.3 11.3
Sources: SPCG, KT Zmico Research
Figure 2: SPCG’s PER band
Figure 3: SPCG’s PBV band
(X)
(X)
18
6.0
16 +2 S.D.
14 12
5.0 +1 S.D.
10
4.0
+0.5 S.D.
8 6
Avg. -0.5 S.D.
3.0
-1 S.D.
2.0
-2 S.D.
1.0
+2 S.D. +1 S.D. +0.5 S.D. Avg. -0.5 S.D. -1 S.D.
4
Source: Bloomberg, KT Zmico Research
Source: Bloomberg, KT Zmico Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
Jan-17
Oct-16
Jul-16
Apr-16
Jan-16
Oct-15
Jul-15
Apr-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
Jul-14
0.0 Apr-14
Jan-17
Oct-16
Jul-16
Apr-16
Jan-16
Oct-15
Jul-15
Apr-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
Jul-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
0
Jan-14
2
FINANCIAL TABLE PROFIT & LOSS (Btmn) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Gain (loss) from affiliates FX gain (loss) Non‐controlling Net profit Reported EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt) BALANCE SHEET (Btmn) Cash and equivalents Accounts receivable Inventories Investment PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long‐term debt Total liabilities Paid‐up shares Shareholder equity Total liab. & shareholder equity CASH FLOW (Btmn) Net income Non‐cash adjustment Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Others Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt) PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%)
2013 2,473 (806) 1,667 (403) 1,610 (347) 1,263 (605) 42 700 (64) 19 (10) (145) 499 0.54 499 0.54 0.00
2014 4,357 (1,167) 3,190 (384) 3,373 (566) 2,806 (979) 30 1,858 10 (1) 23 (234) 1,656 1.79 1,656 1.79 0.85
2015 5,000 (1,359) 3,641 (406) 3,878 (643) 3,235 (898) 58 2,394 72 (1) 0 (275) 2,190 2.37 2,190 2.37 1.25
2016 5,448 (1,920) 3,528 (252) 3,921 (644) 3,277 (745) 96 2,628 (9) (1) 0 (303) 2,314 2.50 2,314 2.50 1.10
2013 289 621 667 5 19,022 1,897 22,501 1,485 15,161 18,988 840 3,513 22,501
2014 2,834 1,022 428 4 18,887 2,396 25,571 2,473 15,542 18,470 924 7,100 25,571
2015 3,710 941 216 472 18,434 964 24,736 2,476 13,321 16,265 924 8,470 24,736
2016 3,360 972 581 471 17,865 983 24,232 2,706 10,615 14,466 924 9,766 24,232
2013 644 (0) 347 88 1,079 (8,427) (178) (8,605) 7,452 280 0 10 7,743 216 (7,526) (8.15)
2014 1,890 22 566 (895) 1,583 (6,397) 4,464 (1,933) 1,258 1,842 (370) 165 2,896 2,546 (350) (0.38)
2015 2,465 1 643 302 3,411 (220) 145 (75) (2,236) 0 (822) (290) (3,348) (12) 3,336 3.61
2016 2,617 (45) 644 352 3,568 (91) 789 698 (2,483) 0 (1,229) (170) (3,882) 384 4,266 4.62
2013 103.6% 197.0% 823.5% 67.4% 65.1% 51.1% 20.2% 20.2% 9.2%
2014 76.2% 109.4% 231.6% 73.2% 77.4% 64.4% 38.0% 38.0% ‐0.5%
2015 14.8% 15.0% 32.3% 72.8% 77.6% 64.7% 43.8% 43.8% ‐3.0%
2016 9.0% 1.1% 5.7% 64.8% 72.0% 60.1% 42.5% 42.5% 0.4%
2017E 5,042 (1,297) 3,745 (253) 4,154 (662) 3,492 (628) 50 2,915 (10) (1) 0 (328) 2,575 2.79 2,575 2.79 1.15
2017E 3,740 829 593 470 17,234 985 23,850 2,951 8,251 12,347 924 11,503 23,850
2018E 5,048 (1,306) 3,742 (257) 4,147 (662) 3,485 (498) 50 3,037 (18) 55 0 (341) 2,733 2.96 2,733 2.96 1.20 2018E 3,265 830 604 470 16,602 987 22,759 2,951 5,301 9,397 924 13,362 22,759
2017E 2,904 1 662 129 3,695 (30) 0 (30) (2,119) 0 (1,166) 0 (3,285) 380 3,665 3.97
2018E 3,074 (55) 662 (15) 3,666 (30) 55 25 (2,950) 0 (1,215) 0 (4,165) (475) 3,690 3.99
2017E ‐7.5% 6.0% 11.3% 74.3% 82.4% 69.3% 51.1% 51.1% 0.3%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
2018E 0.1% ‐0.2% 6.1% 74.1% 82.1% 69.0% 54.1% 54.1% 0.6%
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, M‐CHAI, POMPUI, TFD, TTL, NMG.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Pass (scores: 50 – 59) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC) Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy DISCLAIMER
This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's returns over a six‐month period due to specific coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
KT ZMICO Securities Company Limited Head Office
WWW.KTZMICO.COM
8th, 15th‐17th,19th, 21st Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok, Thailand 10500 Telephone: (66‐2) 695‐5000 Fax: (66‐2) 695‐5173 KT ZMICO Connect 662 695 5555
Central World Branch
Amarin Branch
22nd Floor, Amarin Building, 496‐502 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 018‐6200 Fax: (66‐2) 018‐6298, (66‐2) 018‐6299
8th Floor, Ton Son Tower, 900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 626‐6000 Fax: (66‐2) 626‐6111
Phaholyothin Branch
Sindhorn Branch
Viphavadee Branch
2nd Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130‐132 Wireless Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 627‐3550 Fax: (66‐2) 627‐3582, 627‐3600
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg., 333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee‐Rangsit Road, Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900 Telephone: (66‐2) 013‐8600 Fax: (66‐2) 618‐8569
BangKhae Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Pak Chong Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World, 16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 264‐5888 Fax: (66‐2) 264 5899
1291/1, Shinnawatra Tower II, 3rd Floor, Phaholyothin Road, Phayathai, Bangkok 10400 Telephone: (66‐2) 686‐1500 Fax: (66‐2) 686‐1666
Ploenchit Branch
518 The Mall Group Building Bangkhae Branch, 6th Floor, Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Telephone: (66‐2) 454‐9979 Fax: (66‐2) 454‐9970
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang, Chiang Mai 50100 Telephone: (053) 270‐072 Fax: (053) 272‐618
173 175, Mittapap Road, Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Telephone: (044) 279‐511 Fax: (044) 279‐574
Korat Branch
Khon Kaen Branch
Chonburi Branch
624/9 Changphuek Road, T.Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel, 260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang, A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000 Telephone: (043) 389‐171‐193 Fax: (043) 389‐209
4th Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg., 870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy, A. Muang, Cholburi 20000 Telephone: (038) 287‐635 Fax: (038) 287‐637
Pattaya Branch
Chachoengsao Branch
Hat Yai Branch
Easy Point 2, 392/65 Moo.9, T.Nong Prue, A. Bang Lamung, Chonburi 20260 Telephone: (038) 420‐965 Fax: (038) 420‐968
108/34‐36 Mahajakkrapad Road, T.Namuang, A.Muang, Chachoengsao 24000 Telephone: (038) 813‐088 Fax: (038) 813‐099
200/301, 200/303 JULDIS HATYAI PLAZA Floor 3 , Niphat‐Uthit 3 Rd, Hatyai Songkhla 90110 Telephone: (074) 355530‐3 Fax: (074) 355534
Phuket Branch
22/61‐63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road, Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket, Phuket 83000 Telephone: (076) 222‐811, (076) 222‐683 Fax: (076) 222‐861
Phitsanulok Branch
227/171 Borom Trilokkanat Road, Muang, Phitsanulok 65000 Telephone: 055‐219‐255 to 8 Fax: 055‐219‐259
Nakhon Pathom
Cyber Branch Ayutthaya
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
Cyber Branch Chiangrai
KrungThai Bank, Rojana Branch 253 Moo 5, Rojana Road, Phai Ling, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, Phra Nakhonsi Ayutthaya, 13000 Telephone: 035‐242‐477 Fax: 035‐242‐476
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd., Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District , Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083‐490‐2871
River Hotel (Building 3rd),1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
KrungThai Bank, Hayaek Phokhun Mengrai Branch 116/19 Moo 19, Highway 110 Road, Rop Wiang, Mueang Chiang Rai, Chiang Rai, 57000 Telephone: 053‐715‐067 Fax: 053‐715‐068
