Carl Baker
Building Confidence through Cooperation Carl Baker Pacific Forum CSIS Myanmar-‐U.S. Retired Military-‐to-‐Military Dialogue Yangon, Myanmar February 24-‐25, 2017
Overview • Potential areas for cooperation • Rationale for cooperation • Desired outcomes • Measuring effectiveness
Opportunities for Cooperation • Illicit trafficking • Drugs: UN Office on Drugs and Crime Southeast Asia regional program • Wildlife: Convention on Trade of Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora • Humans: UN International Labor Organization • Small arms: UNODA Transparency Registers/Arms Trade Treaty • Countering proliferation and terrorism • UN Security Council Resolution 1540 • UN Sanctions Resolutions • Proliferation and terrorist financing: Asia/Pacific Group on Money Laundering • Implementation of proliferation-‐related treaties and conventions • Proliferation Security Initiative
Proliferation Network Risks • Supplier (exporter) • Procurement agent • Front companies • Masked end users • Financial institutions • False documents • Laundered money • Intermediaries (brokers, shippers, freight forwarders) • False documentation or manifests • Mask transactions through transit and transshipment facilities • End user
DPRK smuggling and proliferation • Intense scrutiny after 10 years of investigations based on UN sanctions resolutions following its initial nuclear test in 2006 • Extensive network of front companies located throughout Asia • Diplomatic pouch services • Shifting transportation modes and renaming vessels • Collaboration with Asian crime syndicates has grown • Reliance on established connections and business relationships • Ongoing suspicion about relations between Tatmadaw and DPRK military
Rationale for Cooperation • Build personal relationships within multilateral organizations • Establish habits of cooperation • Confirm termination of relationship with DPRK • Develop capacity for accountability mechanisms to prevent illicit trafficking and proliferation • Demonstrate commitment to transparency
Desired Outcomes • Responsibility as UN member
• Nonproliferation-‐related treaties and conventions • UN Security Council Resolution 1540 and sanctions resolutions
• Accountability
• Licensing system for dual-‐use and military equipment • Enforceable border controls
• Reputation
• Enhanced security profile for transit/transshipment/re-‐export • Enhanced risk management profile for manufacturing • Security provider to global nonproliferation community
Measuring effectiveness • Establish trade control enforcement scope and jurisdiction • Increased capacity for trade control enforcement agencies • Detection of illicit trafficking • Administrative and criminal penalties for violators • Prosecution record • Administrative and criminal violations and matching penalties • Increased confidence in Tatmadaw commitment to modern concepts of controlling borders • Enhance alternatives to “marriage of convenience” relationship with DPRK
Thank you for your attention
Overview • Potential areas for cooperation • Rationale for cooperation • Desired outcomes • Measuring effectiveness
Opportunities for Cooperation • Illicit trafficking • Drugs: UN Office on Drugs and Crime Southeast Asia regional program • Wildlife: Convention on Trade of Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora • Humans: UN International Labor Organization • Small arms: UNODA Transparency Registers/Arms Trade Treaty • Countering proliferation and terrorism • UN Security Council Resolution 1540 • UN Sanctions Resolutions • Proliferation and terrorist financing: Asia/Pacific Group on Money Laundering • Implementation of proliferation-‐related treaties and conventions • Proliferation Security Initiative
Proliferation Network Risks • Supplier (exporter) • Procurement agent • Front companies • Masked end users • Financial institutions • False documents • Laundered money • Intermediaries (brokers, shippers, freight forwarders) • False documentation or manifests • Mask transactions through transit and transshipment facilities • End user
DPRK smuggling and proliferation • Intense scrutiny after 10 years of investigations based on UN sanctions resolutions following its initial nuclear test in 2006 • Extensive network of front companies located throughout Asia • Diplomatic pouch services • Shifting transportation modes and renaming vessels • Collaboration with Asian crime syndicates has grown • Reliance on established connections and business relationships • Ongoing suspicion about relations between Tatmadaw and DPRK military
Rationale for Cooperation • Build personal relationships within multilateral organizations • Establish habits of cooperation • Confirm termination of relationship with DPRK • Develop capacity for accountability mechanisms to prevent illicit trafficking and proliferation • Demonstrate commitment to transparency
Desired Outcomes • Responsibility as UN member
• Nonproliferation-‐related treaties and conventions • UN Security Council Resolution 1540 and sanctions resolutions
• Accountability
• Licensing system for dual-‐use and military equipment • Enforceable border controls
• Reputation
• Enhanced security profile for transit/transshipment/re-‐export • Enhanced risk management profile for manufacturing • Security provider to global nonproliferation community
Measuring effectiveness • Establish trade control enforcement scope and jurisdiction • Increased capacity for trade control enforcement agencies • Detection of illicit trafficking • Administrative and criminal penalties for violators • Prosecution record • Administrative and criminal violations and matching penalties • Increased confidence in Tatmadaw commitment to modern concepts of controlling borders • Enhance alternatives to “marriage of convenience” relationship with DPRK
Thank you for your attention
