Fundamentals of Valuation Bank Analyst Training July 28, 2016
Dr. Michael Ho Professor of Practice and Morris Plan Chair of Consumer Credit Darden School of Business, University of Virginia
Session Agenda • Characterizing the challenge • Surveying the tools • Applying and interpreting the results
Copyright © 2016 S&P Global. The Knowledge Center, a part of S&P Global Market Intelligence, a division of S&P Global Inc. .
2
What is Value? • • • •
Context, context, context Eye of the beholder Value versus price Value creation and value drivers
Copyright © 2016 S&P Global. The Knowledge Center, a part of S&P Global Market Intelligence, a division of S&P Global Inc. .
3
Opening Thoughts on Valuation • • • •
Valuation is an art, not a science Valuation is a discipline Valuation is a process, not an outcome Valuation is cross-functional
Copyright © 2016 S&P Global. The Knowledge Center, a part of S&P Global Market Intelligence, a division of S&P Global Inc. .
4
Standard Valuation Methodologies • Relative value (price) •
Relative (multiple) valuation •
Comparable company analysis
•
Precedent transactions analysis
• Intrinsic value (value) •
Discounted cash flows
Copyright © 2016 S&P Global. The Knowledge Center, a part of S&P Global Market Intelligence, a division of S&P Global Inc. .
5
Relative Valuation • The “Theory” •
Market (e.g., stock, bond, real estate, etc.) sets prices such that supply = demand
•
Market participants gather and process all data deemed relevant to determine the appropriate market-clearing price
•
Market prices can be observed (e.g., Wall Street Journal)
•
Market participants’ valuation methodologies cannot be observed
Copyright © 2016 S&P Global. The Knowledge Center, a part of S&P Global Market Intelligence, a division of S&P Global Inc. .
6
Relative Valuation Proposition: If all market participants value the financial performance of companies using similar algorithms, Then... Price = ƒ(financial performance) or, prices will depend upon observable financial measures
Copyright © 2016 S&P Global. The Knowledge Center, a part of S&P Global Market Intelligence, a division of S&P Global Inc. .
7
Relative Valuation • Issues •
The “perfect” comparable
•
Extraordinary items
•
The “best” benchmark
•
Timeframe of benchmark
•
“NMF”
•
Outliers
Copyright © 2016 S&P Global. The Knowledge Center, a part of S&P Global Market Intelligence, a division of S&P Global Inc. .
8
Comparable Company Analysis • What it is • How it is used •
Industry trends
•
Peer group comparison
•
Stock market perspective on value
Copyright © 2016 S&P Global. The Knowledge Center, a part of S&P Global Market Intelligence, a division of S&P Global Inc. .
9
Comparable Company Analysis • What it tells us •
How the company, if it were publicly traded, might be priced by the stock market
•
Reflects current market sentiment and comparables (i.e., industry) financial performance
•
Non-control share transactions (i.e., atomistic trades)
Copyright © 2016 S&P Global. The Knowledge Center, a part of S&P Global Market Intelligence, a division of S&P Global Inc. .
10
Comparable Company Analysis • Caveats •
No perfect comparables
•
By definition, dependent upon current market and economic conditions
•
Significant size and scope differences
Copyright © 2016 S&P Global. The Knowledge Center, a part of S&P Global Market Intelligence, a division of S&P Global Inc. .
11
Precedent Transactions Analysis • Precedent Acquisitions •
What it is
•
How it is used •
M&A market trends in activity (“hot” and “cold” markets)
•
Acquirers’ perspectives on value
Copyright © 2016 S&P Global. The Knowledge Center, a part of S&P Global Market Intelligence, a division of S&P Global Inc. .
12
Precedent Transactions Analysis • What it tells us •
How the company might be valued in an M&A transaction
•
May or may not include the value of control
Copyright © 2016 S&P Global. The Knowledge Center, a part of S&P Global Market Intelligence, a division of S&P Global Inc. .
13
Precedent Transactions Analysis • Caveats • No perfect comparables • Valuation characteristics highly dependent upon market activity • No direct indication of the motivations of the acquirers • Lack of forecasted target company data • Data sometimes unavailable, although better for financial institutions
Copyright © 2016 S&P Global. The Knowledge Center, a part of S&P Global Market Intelligence, a division of S&P Global Inc. .
14
Relative Valuation Analysis • Applying and interpreting the results •
Identifying meaningful implied valuation ranges
•
Over/under-weighting the included transactions (the “spin”)
•
Price or value? •
Public versus private company (liquidity)
•
Application context (control transaction)
Copyright © 2016 S&P Global. The Knowledge Center, a part of S&P Global Market Intelligence, a division of S&P Global Inc. .
15
Cash Flow Valuation • What it is • The three components • Forecasted cash flows • Discount rate (cost of capital) • Terminal, or residual value
Copyright © 2016 S&P Global. The Knowledge Center, a part of S&P Global Market Intelligence, a division of S&P Global Inc. .
16
Cash Flow Valuation: Forecasted Cash Flows • Issues • Utilize: •
Financial statement analysis
•
Competitive analysis
•
Financial accounting
• What is being valued? •
i.e., to whom do the cash flows (value) accrue?
Copyright © 2016 S&P Global. The Knowledge Center, a part of S&P Global Market Intelligence, a division of S&P Global Inc. .
17
Cash Flow Valuation: Cost of Capital • Introduction and motivation • What does the discount rate: • Represent/capture? • Adjust for?
• Decomposing the discount rate • Risk-free component • Risk premium
Copyright © 2016 S&P Global. The Knowledge Center, a part of S&P Global Market Intelligence, a division of S&P Global Inc. .
18
Cash Flow Valuation: Terminal Value • aka Residual Value • Why? • How? •
Relative multiples
•
Perpetuity models •
Competitive market model •
•
TVTermYr = CFTermYr / r With growth
•
TVTermYr = CFTermYr (1+g) / (r-g)
•
g = perpetual growth rate
Copyright © 2016 S&P Global. The Knowledge Center, a part of S&P Global Market Intelligence, a division of S&P Global Inc. .
19
Cash Flow Valuation: Terminal Value • Important reminders •
The terminal value represents the forecasted ongoing value of the company, not sale proceeds •
Terminal value is in the terminal year 4 Still need the present value
•
•
Terminal value parameters should be appropriate for •
Industry
•
Where company will be in the terminal year Proportion of total value attributable to terminal value is often very high 4 Think carefully about your assumptions
Copyright © 2016 S&P Global. The Knowledge Center, a part of S&P Global Market Intelligence, a division of S&P Global Inc. .
20
Cash Flow Valuation • How it is used • Value of a specific strategy and outlook • Value of potential synergies • Gaining insight into the value drivers of a business
• What it tells us • The value in current dollars of the forecasted net cash flows generated by the business under a given outlook
Copyright © 2016 S&P Global. The Knowledge Center, a part of S&P Global Market Intelligence, a division of S&P Global Inc. .
21
Cash Flow Valuation • Caveats • Reflects a single view of the future • Adjusting for the risk/uncertainty of the future • Terminal/residual value comprises a significant percentage of the overall value • Does not reflect the value of strategic flexibility (i.e., real option value) • Typically a significant dispersion of expectations for the future • Involves a number of assumptions to derive both the net cash flows, terminal/residual value and discount rate
Copyright © 2016 S&P Global. The Knowledge Center, a part of S&P Global Market Intelligence, a division of S&P Global Inc. .
22
Implied Valuation • A complete valuation perspective incorporates the: •
Assessment of operations and business model of the business
•
Outlook for future revenue and cash flow growth
•
Current market conditions for other companies in the industry (or similar industries) •
Public trading value
•
Transaction value
Copyright © 2016 S&P Global. The Knowledge Center, a part of S&P Global Market Intelligence, a division of S&P Global Inc. .
23
Implied Valuation Control - Strategic Value Control - Financial Value Implied Value
Tradable Minority (“Normal Price”)
Strategic Premium (e.g., synergies, defensive offense, irrationality)
Minority Interest Discount
Financial Premium (e.g., optimal capital structure, working capital management) Marketability / Liquidity Discount
Non-tradable Minority
Copyright © 2016 S&P Global. The Knowledge Center, a part of S&P Global Market Intelligence, a division of S&P Global Inc. .
24
Key Points • Intrinsic value is unobservable •
We can only estimate it
• So many methods, so little time • So many viewpoints, no guarantee of convergence • There are no “right” answers in valuation, but there are many wrong ones.
Copyright © 2016 S&P Global. The Knowledge Center, a part of S&P Global Market Intelligence, a division of S&P Global Inc. .
25
Defining a Valuation Range • • • • • •
Use several estimators Exercise the estimators to get several estimates Scrutinize the assumptions and “key bets” Identify hidden options Consider unquantifiable factors Triangulate
Copyright © 2016 S&P Global. The Knowledge Center, a part of S&P Global Market Intelligence, a division of S&P Global Inc. .
26
Triangulation Graph
Copyright © 2016 S&P Global. The Knowledge Center, a part of S&P Global Market Intelligence, a division of S&P Global Inc. .
27
Valuation Case Study: Background • UnionBanCal Corporation’s acquisition of Pacific Capital Bancorp •
Announced in March 2012
•
Completed in May 2012
• UnionBanCal Corporation is a wholly owned subsidiary of The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Ltd. •
Primary operating subsidiary is Union Bank
• Pacific Capital Bancorp is a bank holding company •
Primary operating subsidiary is Santa Barbara Bank & Trust, N.A.
Copyright © 2016 S&P Global. The Knowledge Center, a part of S&P Global Market Intelligence, a division of S&P Global Inc. .
28
Valuation Case Study: Fairness Opinion • Sandler O’Neill provided the fairness opinion • Scope of review: •
the merger agreement;
•
certain publicly available financial statements and other historical financial information of the Company that Sandler O'Neill deemed relevant;
•
certain financial statements of UNBC that Sandler O'Neill deemed relevant in determining UNBC's financial ability to undertake the merger;
•
internal financial projections for the Company for the years ending December 31, 2012 through December 31, 2014 as provided by and discussed with senior management of the Company and an internal long-term growth rate for the years ending December 31, 2015 and 2016 as provided by senior management of the Company;
•
a comparison of certain financial and other information for the Company with similar publicly available information for certain other commercial banks, the securities of which are publicly traded;
•
the terms and structures of other recent mergers and acquisition transactions in the banking sector;
•
the current market environment generally and in the commercial banking sector in particular; and
•
such other information, financial studies, analyses and investigations and financial, economic and market criteria as Sandler O'Neill considered relevant.
Copyright © 2016 S&P Global. The Knowledge Center, a part of S&P Global Market Intelligence, a division of S&P Global Inc. .
29
Valuation Case Study: Fairness Opinion • Disclaimer “In order to fully understand the financial analyses, these tables must be read together with the accompanying text. The tables alone do not constitute a complete description of the financial analyses. The preparation of a fairness opinion is a complex process involving subjective judgments as to the most appropriate and relevant methods of financial analysis and the application of those methods to the particular circumstances.”
Copyright © 2016 S&P Global. The Knowledge Center, a part of S&P Global Market Intelligence, a division of S&P Global Inc. .
30
Valuation Case Study: Fairness Opinion • Disclaimer “In arriving at its opinion, Sandler O'Neill did not attribute any particular weight to any analysis or factor that it considered. Rather Sandler O'Neill made qualitative judgments as to the significance and relevance of each analysis and factor. Sandler O'Neill did not form an opinion as to whether any individual analysis or factor (positive or negative) considered in isolation supported or failed to support its opinion; rather Sandler O'Neill made its determination as to the fairness of the merger consideration on the basis of its experience and professional judgment after considering the results of all its analyses taken as a whole. The process, therefore, is not necessarily susceptible to a partial analysis or summary description. Sandler O'Neill believes that its analyses must be considered as a whole and that selecting portions of the factors and analyses to be considered without considering all factors and analyses, or attempting to ascribe relative weights to some or all such factors and analyses, could create an incomplete view of the evaluation process underlying its opinion.”
Copyright © 2016 S&P Global. The Knowledge Center, a part of S&P Global Market Intelligence, a division of S&P Global Inc. .
31
Valuation Case Study: Fairness Opinion • Disclaimer “Also, no company included in Sandler O'Neill's comparative analyses described below is identical to the Company and no transaction is identical to the merger. Accordingly, an analysis of comparable companies or transactions involves complex considerations and judgments concerning differences in financial and operating characteristics of the Company and other factors that could affect the public trading values or merger transaction values, as the case may be, of the Company and the companies to which it is being compared.”
Copyright © 2016 S&P Global. The Knowledge Center, a part of S&P Global Market Intelligence, a division of S&P Global Inc. .
32
Copyright © 2016 S&P Global. The Knowledge Center, a part of S&P Global Market Intelligence, a division of S&P Global Inc. .
33
Copyright © 2016 S&P Global. The Knowledge Center, a part of S&P Global Market Intelligence, a division of S&P Global Inc. .
34
Copyright © 2016 S&P Global. The Knowledge Center, a part of S&P Global Market Intelligence, a division of S&P Global Inc. .
35
Copyright © 2016 S&P Global. The Knowledge Center, a part of S&P Global Market Intelligence, a division of S&P Global Inc. .
36
Copyright © 2016 S&P Global. The Knowledge Center, a part of S&P Global Market Intelligence, a division of S&P Global Inc. .
37
Copyright © 2016 S&P Global. The Knowledge Center, a part of S&P Global Market Intelligence, a division of S&P Global Inc. .
38
Copyright © 2016 S&P Global. The Knowledge Center, a part of S&P Global Market Intelligence, a division of S&P Global Inc. .
39
Copyright © 2016 S&P Global. The Knowledge Center, a part of S&P Global Market Intelligence, a division of S&P Global Inc. .
40
Copyright © 2016 S&P Global. The Knowledge Center, a part of S&P Global Market Intelligence, a division of S&P Global Inc. .
41
Copyright © 2016 S&P Global. The Knowledge Center, a part of S&P Global Market Intelligence, a division of S&P Global Inc. .
42
Disclosure Copyright © 2016 by S&P Global Market Intelligence, a division of S&P Global Inc. All rights reserved. No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of S&P Global Market Intelligence or its affiliates (collectively, S&P Global). The Content shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. S&P Global and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively S&P Global Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of the Content. S&P Global Parties are not responsible for any errors or omissions (negligent or otherwise), regardless of the cause, for the results obtained from the use of the Content, or for the security or maintenance of any data input by the user. The Content is provided on an “as is” basis. S&P GLOBAL PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, FREEDOM FROM BUGS, SOFTWARE ERRORS OR DEFECTS, THAT THE CONTENT’S FUNCTIONING WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED OR THAT THE CONTENT WILL OPERATE WITH ANY SOFTWARE OR HARDWARE CONFIGURATION. In no event shall S&P Global Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs or losses caused by negligence) in connection with any use of the Content even if advised of the possibility of such damages. Credit-related and other analyses, including ratings, and statements in the Content are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact. S&P Global Market Intelligence’s opinions, analyses and rating acknowledgment decisions (described below) are not recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions, and do not address the suitability of any security. S&P Global Market Intelligence assumes no obligation to update the Content following publication in any form or format. The Content should not be relied on and is not a substitute for the skill, judgment and experience of the user, its management, employees, advisors and/or clients when making investment and other business decisions. S&P Global Market Intelligence does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor except where registered as such. While S&P Global Market Intelligence has obtained information from sources it believes to be reliable, S&P Global Market Intelligence does not perform an audit and undertakes no duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives. S&P Global keeps certain activities of its divisions separate from each other in order to preserve the independence and objectivity of their respective activities. As a result, certain divisions of S&P Global may have information that is not available to other S&P Global divisions. S&P Global has established policies and procedures to maintain the confidentiality of certain non-public information received in connection with each analytical process. S&P Global may receive compensation for its ratings and certain analyses, normally from issuers or underwriters of securities or from obligors. S&P Global reserves the right to disseminate its opinions and analyses. S&P Global's public ratings and analyses are made available on its Web sites, www.standardandpoors.com (free of charge), and www.ratingsdirect.com and www.globalcreditportal.com (subscription), and may be distributed through other means, including via S&P Global publications and third-party redistributors. Additional information about our ratings fees is available at www.standardandpoors.com/usratingsfees.
Copyright © 2016 S&P Global. The Knowledge Center, a part of S&P Global Market Intelligence, a division of S&P Global Inc. .
43