KONE’S CAPITAL MARKETS DAY 2011
Catching the China Opportunity William B. Johnson Managing Director, KONE China
Real estate market trends E&E market development Developing KONE in China Going forward
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May 19, 2011
© KONE Corporation | Capital Markets Day | William B. Johnson
Continued strong macroeconomic backdrop Macroeconomic indicators y-o-y %-change
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010 2011Q1
GDP
10.0
10.1
10.4
11.1
11.4
9.6
8.7
10.3
9.7
CPI
1.2
3.9
1.8
1.5
4.8
5.9
-0.7
3.3
5.0
Industrial production
17.0
16.7
16.4
16.6
18.5
12.9
10.3
15.7
14.4
Fixed investments
27.7
26.6
26.0
23.9
24.8
26.1
30.1
23.8
25.0
Real estate investment
29.7
28.1
19.8
21.8
30.2
20.9
16.1
33.2
34.1
Source: People's Bank of China, National Bureau of Statistics of China. 3
May 19, 2011
© KONE Corporation | Capital Markets Day | William B. Johnson
Real estate industry has continued to perform strongly, but with a slight decline in the growth rate from the 2010 peak
New construction area 2006-Q1/2011 10,000 m2
New Construction area
Real estate investment 2006-Q1/2011
Y-O-Y 80 %
160 000
70 %
140 000
Y-O-Y
60 000
80 % 70 %
50 000
60 %
120 000
50 %
100 000
41 %
40 %
80 000
30 %
60 000 40 000
Real Estate Investment
RMB100 mn
180 000
15 %
23 %
19 % 13 %
20 000 2006
2007
2008
2010
33 % 30 %
20 000
10 %
0
0% 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Jan.-Mar.11
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China 4
May 19, 2011
© KONE Corporation | Capital Markets Day | William B. Johnson
30 % 20 %
16 %
10 000
Jan.-Mar.11
40 % 34 %
21 % 22 %
0% 2009
50 %
30 000
20 % 10 %
2%
0
60 % 40 000
Real estate investment growth rates in 1st, 2nd and 3rd tier cities in Q1 2011 Real estate investment growth, % 60%
57%
Tier 3
E.g., Guiyang, Haikou, Xining, Yinchuan
Tier 2
E.g., Chengdu, Chongqing, Wuhan, Hangzhou, Tianjin
Tier 1
Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou
50% 40% 32% 30% 18%
20% 10% 0% 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Jan.Mar. Source: Soufun Database
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© KONE Corporation | Capital Markets Day | William B. Johnson
Focus of growth moving from 1st and 2nd tier to 3rd and 4th tier cities and from East to West Real Estate Investment growth rate, 2010
33.2 %
Source: China Economic Information Network
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May 19, 2011
© KONE Corporation | Capital Markets Day | William B. Johnson
Measures to cool down real estate sector, but strong focus on affordable housing Tightening of policies to limit housing prices in the beginning of 2011… Increased down-payment requirements Limitations on buying 2nd and 3rd housing Local city level housing price control targets for 2011
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… but strong push for affordable housing
Target to build 36 million affordable homes in 2011-2015 of which 10 million in 2011 Investment 1.3 trillion RMB (USD 197 billion) in 2011 Financing from - Central government - Local governments (from land sales) - Society institutions
© KONE Corporation | Capital Markets Day | William B. Johnson
Affordable housing is the key growth driver Many forms of affordable housing: – Reconstruction of urban shanty towns, subsidized by government – Public rent housing - built by government and leased to fresh graduates and migrant workers) – Economically affordable housing (commercial apartments, controlled profit margin) Fixed percentage of development floor area per project to affordable housing and the rest for commercial development Robust model for years to come to ensure a sufficient amount of entry level apartments
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May 19, 2011
© KONE Corporation | Capital Markets Day | William B. Johnson
Real estate market trends E&E market development Developing KONE in China Going forward
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May 19, 2011
© KONE Corporation | Capital Markets Day | William B. Johnson
Significant expansion in the new equipment market units
360 000
China new equipment market growth 1980 – 2010
340 000
310,000
320 000 300 000
7.9% 22.6%
280 000 260 000
• In 1998, housing ceases to be provided by the state.
240 000
• In 1992, housing reform implemented.
220 000 200 000 180 000 160 000
• In 1978, China begins to carry out a policy of reform and opening.
d ee sp hg Hi
140 000 120 000
• Market-oriented economic development policy implemented as of 1984.
100 000 80 000 60 000
de
ve
t en m lop
st
e ag
105,000
46,710
40 000 20 000 0 '80 '81
'82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88
'89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94
'95 '96 '97 ’98 '99
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10
Source: China Elevator Association and KONE’s estimates on the market size 10
May 19, 2011
© KONE Corporation | Capital Markets Day | William B. Johnson
New equipment: expected market development in China for 2010-2011 Expected development of new equipment market segments, units Approximately +15% growth 310 000 Non residential
Non-residential segments expected to continue to grow. Developers shifting focus from residential to commercial real estate. Affordable housing the strongest growing segment, following the China government’s target to build 10 million affordable homes in 2011. Translates into approx. 100 000 elevators or somewhat more.
Other residential
Affordable housing
2010
2011
Normal residential affected in 1st and 2nd tier cities by tightened policies to limit housing purchases, lending etc, but high activity expected to continue in lower tier cities.
Source: Based on KONE’s estimate 11
May 19, 2011
© KONE Corporation | Capital Markets Day | William B. Johnson
Competitive landscape: many tiers of competition
Global companies
JVs of global companies
Local companies
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Focus on all segments from high-end to low-end and from big cities to small cities Strong, global brands as support Focus on mid-end and low-end of the markets Focus on 2nd, 3rd and lower tiers of cities
Focus on low-end of the market and lower tiers of cities Components from suppliers with large volumes
© KONE Corporation | Capital Markets Day | William B. Johnson
KONE has grown to become strong Top 3 company in the Chinese E&E market 2005
2009
Competitor
Competitor
Competitor
Competitor
(strong no. 4)
Competitor Competitor
Competitor
Competitor
Competitor
Competitor
Competitor
Competitor
Competitor
Competitor
Competitor
Competitor
Competitor
Competitor
GiantKONE (no. 10), one of the fastest growing smaller companies
Competitor
(no. 8) Competitor . . . GiantKONE (JV in 2005) 13
+ GiantKONE strong within the Top 3
Competitor
Competitor
2010
May 19, 2011
Competitor
© KONE Corporation | Capital Markets Day | William B. Johnson
Real estate market trends E&E market development Developing KONE in China Going forward
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May 19, 2011
© KONE Corporation | Capital Markets Day | William B. Johnson
KONE has grown clearly faster than the market KONE growth in orders received units vs. market growth, 2004-2010
Grown every year faster than the market during the past 6 years
725% Significant expansion in the coverage of network in China Been able to improve its profitability
195%
Developed a market leading maintenance business KONE
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Market
© KONE Corporation | Capital Markets Day | William B. Johnson
KONE’s distribution and service network extends to growth regions in China Harbin Changchun Shenyang Urumqi
Hohhot Beijing
Xining
Real Estate Investment growth rate, 2010
Lasa
Dalian Kunshan factory ShijiazhuangTianjin Shanghai HQ Yinchuan Branches Jinan Qingdao Shanxi Service stations Lanzhou Zhengzhou Nanjing Xi’an Suzhou Hefei Kunshan Wuhan Shanghai Chengdu Jiaxing Chongqing Hangzhou Nanchang Ningbo Changsha Fuzhou Wenzhou Guiyang Xiamen
Kunming Dongguan Shenzhen Nanning Guangzhou Branches: Zhuhai Foshan
Hainan 16
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Sales offices Service stations:
43 25 168
Strong portfolio of solutions to meet the needs of the different segments Residential market
Office market
Hotel market
Infrastructure market
Special Buildings market
Medical market
Machine-room-less elevators (MRL) Common EcoDisc technology throughout the whole elevator product range
• Leader in the MRL technology • KONE MonoSpaceTM and SMonoSpaceTM and TransysTM elevators •
Small machine room elevators (SMR) • Range of KONE MiniSpaceTM elevators • Serving segments from low-end residential to high-rise applications Escalators and moving walks
•
• Commercial and heavy duty escalators • Moving walks to infrastructure markets and inclined Moving Walks to retail • 17
May 19, 2011
© KONE Corporation | Capital Markets Day | William B. Johnson
Industry-leading energy efficiency ratings also in China Certificates for elevators manufactured in Kunshan, China
Load (kg)
KONE 3000 MiniSpace
KONE 3000 MiniSpace
KONE 3000S MonoSpace
2000
1350
1350
Speed (m/s)
6
2.5
1.75
Energy efficiency class
A
A
A
The VDI 4707 is a guideline published by the Association of German Engineers (Verein Deutscher Ingenieure), which aims at classifying elevators based on their energy consumption.
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© KONE Corporation | Capital Markets Day | William B. Johnson
Energy efficiency class provided by TÜV
Maintenance: providing strong future opportunities Elevator and Escalator units in operation in China (thousand units)
1629
Over 300 000 units to be added in 2011
770 410
2000
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2005
2010
Maintenance market characteristics: Significant annual feed from new equipment market to maintenance base Maintenance market is fragmented, but need for high quality service increasing Strong basic standards for maintenance exist – a license required KONE focus: KONE focuses on high conversion rate from new installations to service Service in all segments
© KONE Corporation | Capital Markets Day | William B. Johnson
Market trends and KONE’s response Strong development of affordable housing market
New KONE 3000 EMiniSpace elevator launched in Q1/2011 with particular focus on affordable housing segment
Growing environmental awareness
Leadership in eco-efficiency with VDI A-level energy consumption solutions Continuous improvement to maintain leadership
Fast growth of installed base
Focus on high conversions KONE Care service solutions to meet the needs of different customer segments
Demand for highend major projects increasing 20
May 19, 2011
Further development of sales, sales support and project management resources
© KONE Corporation | Capital Markets Day | William B. Johnson
GiantKONE provides strong second distribution channel GiantKONE has a strong product portfolio covering – Volume range of small machine room and machine roomless passenger elevators – Freight elevators – Escalators and ramps
GiantKONE provides – Second distribution channel with a focus on the fastest growing segment and markets – Additional production capacity, synergy between KONE China and GiantKONE
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© KONE Corporation | Capital Markets Day | William B. Johnson
KONE vs. GiantKONE positioning
KONE
Giant KONE
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May 19, 2011
© KONE Corporation | Capital Markets Day | William B. Johnson
GiantKONE’s geographical coverage Heilongjiang
Jilin Inner Mongolia Beijing Tianjin Xinjiang
Ningxia
Nanxun HQ and factory
Hebei Shanxi
Gansu
Shangdong
Shananxi Henan Real Estate Investment growth rate, 2010
Liaoning
Anhui
Branch
Jiangsu Suzhou Shanghai
Nanxun Factory Huzhou Ningbo Hangzhou Jiaxing Shaoxing Hunan Jiangxii Wenzhou Jinhua Taizhou Fujian
Hubei Chongqing Sichuan Guizhou Yunnan
Guangxi Guangzhou Dongguan Shenzhen Hainan
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Branches:
© KONE Corporation | Capital Markets Day | William B. Johnson
Real estate market trends E&E market development Developing KONE in China Going forward
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May 19, 2011
© KONE Corporation | Capital Markets Day | William B. Johnson
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What we have achieved in China Grown faster than the market every year for the past 6 years Reached Top 3 on the Chinese market (KONE and GiantKONE combined) Expanded product portfolio and geographical coverage Actively developed our personnel and recruited key talent Been able to improve profitability 25
May 19, 2011
© KONE Corporation | Capital Markets Day | William B. Johnson
What we want to achieve in China Continue to grow faster than the market – Residential, affordable housing – Commercial segments – Major projects
Expand service business Further expand network in 3rd and 4th tier cities Continue strengthening product portfolio – Ride experience – Cost competitiveness, optimize for China
Brand – even stronger awareness of KONE Fully utilize the market opportunities through two channels, KONE and GiantKONE
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May 19, 2011
© KONE Corporation | Capital Markets Day | William B. Johnson