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CB RICHARD ELLIS

Brisbane CBD Office Market Outlook www.cbre.com/research

May 2011

BRISBANE CBD RECOVERY TO STRENGTHEN FROM 2012 By Craig Godber Senior Associate Director Global Research and Consulting Queensland

SUMMARY Brisbane’s CBD office market is in the midst of a period of stabilisation after the rising vacancy, declining rents and softening yields that held sway in

CBD office market vacancy change, 2010 Brisbane Darwin Melbourne

2008 and 2009. A step up from stabilisation to

Sydney

strengthening recovery, however, remains 12-months

National

away. THE PAST YEAR

Hobart Adelaide Perth Canberra

The year to December 2010 in the Brisbane CBD was a year of stabilisation in terms of rental and yield indicators and a year of surprising strength in terms of net absorption and vacancy.

-3.0

Australian average (8.3%), Brisbane actually experienced the greatest improvement of any of the CBD office markets, falling by 1.9 percentage points. Melbourne witnessed the second largest annual fall in vacancy, of the major markets, dropping by 0.4 percentage points. Net absorption in 2010 was positive for the 12th consecutive year, and at 55,000 sq m, was well above the long-term average. In fact, over the past decade, only Melbourne and Canberra have recorded higher rates of net absorption. Tightening vacancy didn’t translate into rental growth. Further, with the interruptions caused by the floods of January 2011 and a still significant supply pipeline over the next 12-months, rental growth expectations for 2011 remain muted.

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Source: Property Council of Australia, January 2011

CBD office market net absorption, 2001 to 2010 100,000 90,000

Net absorption per annum (sq m)

vacancy had fallen to 9.4%. While still above the

-1.0

Change in vacancy - Jan 2010 to Jan 2011 (percentage point)

Vacancy started 2010 at 11.3%, well above the Australian CBD average of 8.0%. By the end of 2010

-2.0

80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Melbourne Canberra

Brisbane

Perth

Sydney

Adelaide

Hobart

Source: Property Council of Australia, January 2011

THE OCCUPIER MARKET Key driver forecasts by Deloitte Access Economics (April 2011) suggest Queensland GSP and white collar employment will return to their long-term trend of outperforming national indicators. This is particularly evident from 2012, with the impacts of floods, cyclones and other natural disasters delaying the previously expected return to stronger growth.

© 2010, CB Richard Ellis, Inc.

Construction activity over the next five years, in

(including many services related to the resource

addition to the strong new supply witnessed in 2009

sector) accounted for nearly 55% of white collar

and 2010, is expected to accommodate the forecast

employment on average over the 2006-10 period.

net absorption levels of 45,300 sq m on per annum.

Finance and insurance accounted for nearly 13%.

Three buildings are currently under construction to

These sectors are likely to continue to drive net

complete between the present time and mid-2012.

absorption. Government/semi-government is also

These three buildings (123 Albert Street, One One

likely to increase its take-up of white collar

One Eagle Street and 145 Ann Street) will add

employment, which will help continue to drive the

129,600 sq m to the supply by mid-2012.

strong demand forecasts.

Despite the forecasts of continued positive net

As a result, CB Richard Ellis is forecasting net

absorption, tenant moves to these buildings are

absorption to average 45,300 sq m per annum over

likely to leave behind some large areas of backfill.

the five-year outlook period (to 2015). This is well

CB Richard Ellis expects vacancy to rise to be over

above the previous five-year average of 37,600 sq

10% again in the early part of 2012, before a period

m per annum and the ten-year average of 35,600

of continued positive net absorption and minimal

sq m per annum.

supply additions drives vacancy back towards 8.0%

Brisbane CBD supply, demand and vacancy

by the end of 2015. Forecast

Net additions

160,000

Net absorption

12.0

140,000

Vacancy (%)

10.5

13.5

120,000

9.0

100,000

7.5

80,000

6.0

60,000

4.5

40,000

3.0

20,000

1.5

0

-

2015

2014

2013

2011

2012

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

-1.5

2001

(20,000)

Prime vacancy is expected to trend lower post 2012,

15.0

180,000

Year ending December

possibly dropping below 5.0%, although this will be Vacancy (%)

200,000

sq m

Brisbane CBD Office Market Outlook ViewPoint

In terms of CBD employment, professional services

counter-balanced by a sustained period of higher vacancy, of 11.0% or above, in secondary stock. If demand conditions turn out to be stronger than anticipated, and net absorption levels reach the 2004 to 2006 level of over 60,000 sq m per annum, total office vacancy could fall to as low as 4.8% by 2015. This suggests that supply activity going forward is sufficient enough to support a projected

Source: CB Richard Ellis, March 2011

The period from 2004 to 2008 could be labelled as ’the golden period’ for Brisbane CBD office, with an

vacancy rate that is nowhere near full occupancy levels experienced during 2007 and 2008.

average vacancy rate of 3.6% and landlords

Further new development in the CBD in the

experiencing

foreseeable future is likely to require significant pre-

strong

rental

growth.

Investment

demand surged on the back of this performance. In the twelve years prior, vacancy averaged 9.6%. From a peak of 12.9% at the start of 1993, it took: • four years for vacancy to drop below 10%; and • ten years for vacancy to drop below 6%.

commitment before proceeding, as illustrated by the Australian Taxation Office commitment to Grocon’s 55 Elizabeth Street development. There are a number of other large tenant requirements in the market at present, such as Suncorp (30,000 sq m), Queensland Health (30,000 sq m), Boeing (15,000 sq m) and the Bank of Queensland (14,000 sq m).

The current forecast period (2011 to 2015), while

Requirements such as these are likely to drive further

strong, is not anticipated to be a repeat of the 2004

supply additions from 2014. Their direct impact on

to 2008 period. Conditions post 2015, however,

net absorption, however, is likely to be modest, given

could tighten significantly should the supply cycle be

they are all existing tenants with an existing large

sufficiently constrained.

CBD presence. Some may ultimately leave the CBD.

© 2010, CB Richard Ellis, Inc.

May 2011

Page 2

requirements may be satisfied by development in the Near City, further impacting on the prospects of stronger CBD net absorption.

THE INVESTMENT MARKET Investment markets were hard hit by the global credit crisis. While the economic environment improved in 2010, credit remained difficult to obtain for potential

While CB Richard Ellis is forecasting some growth in

purchasers. Banks have taken a much more cautious

rents in 2011, on the back of improving demand

approach to lending for any form of commercial

and sentiment, the growth is unlikely to be

property and are requiring a much higher equity

spectacular. This is largely a result of the completion

stake from their clients.

of three buildings previously mentioned.

As a result, the number of properties transacting

Prime gross face rents are forecast to increase at a

across the commercial property markets has been

rate of 3.3% per annum over the 2011 to 2015

well down, although some signs of increased activity

period. This equates to an increase of $24/sq m per

are now being observed. Foreign investors have

annum. The forecast rate of growth (in terms of $

proven to be a key player in the initial upswing in

per sq m) is some four times slower that the rate of

activity, although key domestic investors are now

growth witnessed over the period from 2003 to

beginning to show greater signs of life.

2008. This is largely a result of the forecast of vacancy rates remaining above 8% for most of the forecast period. Stronger growth is anticipated for the period post-2012.

Brisbane CBD Office Market Outlook ViewPoint

There is a distinct possibility that some of these

Many listed and unlisted property groups, in an effort to reduce gearing, attempted to divest noncore assets in 2008 and 2009, when the market was at its trough. With limited demand from purchasers, however, many funds ultimately completed large

Brisbane CBD rents and vacancy, 2000 to 2015

equity raisings to achieve this outcome. The larger 12.0 Gross face ($/sq m) - lhs

11.0

1,000

Net face ($/sq m) - lhs

10.0

900

Total vacancy (%) - rhs

9.0

800

8.0

700

7.0

600

6.0

500

5.0

Forecast

400

2015

2014

2013

2011

2012

2010

2009

0.0

2008

0

2007

1.0

2006

2.0

100

2005

200

2004

3.0

2003

again on the acquisition trail in some markets.

4.0

300

2002

LPTs are now generally well capitalised and are

% vacancy

1,100

2001

Prime rental rate ($/sq m)

1,200

Year ending December

The focus is now on the smaller funds that have been less successful in raising fresh capital. In many instances, they also hold a greater proportion of secondary assets. Pressure still exists on some wholesale funds, albeit the improvement of the equities market and the stabilisation of asset values have seen fresh capital flows into this sector.

Source: CB Richard Ellis, March 2011

Redemption pressure and the need to reduce debt

Even if forecast net absorption levels increased to the

may still result in wholesale funds selling assets once

more optimistic case of over 60,000 sq m per

greater liquidity returns to the property market.

annum, total office vacancy rate would still not approach the sub 1% levels that drove the strongest period of rental increase in 2006 and 2007. Prime incentives are forecast to ease gradually from their current peak, but remain above 20%. This will, however, generate strong effective rental growth of around 6.0% per annum post 2012.

Private investment demand is still solid, but is focused on lower priced assets. Further rises in interest rates may dampen the remaining private investor demand. Investment demand remains strongest for quality assets with a focus on property fundamentals. Institutional investors are maintaining a strong focus on total returns. The depth in investment demand may be tested in 2011 by an increased supply of

© 2010, CB Richard Ellis, Inc.

May 2011

Page 3

The limited sales activity in 2010 has had the effect

take advantage of improved market liquidity and

of stabilising yields, with prime yields ranging

banks bring more distressed assets to the market.

between 7.50% and 8.75% with an indicative yield of

The value of major sales in the Brisbane CBD in 2010 was the third highest annual total on record. The sales of Brisbane Square, ($300 million), Santos

8.00%. Secondary yields have recorded a similar flat trend, with indicative yields resting at 9.13% during the year.

Place ($287 million) and 50% of 275 George Street

Looking forward yields are forecast to tighten from

($166 million) were the main contributors to the total

2012 as improved demand drives prices up, albeit

of $860 million of office property which transacted

at a slower rate compared to the last tightening cycle

during the year. Notably, all three had relatively long

from 2004 to 2007 (when prime yields tightened on

lease expiries with the latter two recently completed.

average by 50 basis points per annum over three

Brisbane CBD sales activity, 1990 to 2010

years). Over the current forecast period, an average tightening of 25 basis points per annum is forecast, with the pace of firming strengthening post 2012.

Despite the relative high dollar value of sales, however, only ten transactions over $5 million occurred during the year, with just six above $10 million. This is significantly lower than the ten-year average of fourteen $10 million plus sales per annum, an indication of the limited number of buyers in the market for large assets. The current market presents strategic investors with a strong counter-cyclical purchasing opportunity from

8.00% 7.50% 7.00% 6.50% Prime yield (%)

6.00%

2015

5.50%

2014

Secondary yield (%)

2013

Source: CB Richard Ellis (March 2011) Note: Sales of $10 mill. plus

8.50%

2011

Year

Forecast

9.00%

2012

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

0

1997

0

1996

2

1994

200

1995

4

1993

6

400

1992

600

1991

8

1990

800

9.50%

2010

10

2009

12

1,000

2008

1,200

Brisbane CBD yield forecasts

2007

14

2006

16

1,400

2005

18

1,600

2004

1,800

2003

20

No. of sales

2002

Sales value ($ mill.)

2001

2,000

Yield indicator (%)

22

Number of sales

2,200

Sales value ($ million)

Brisbane CBD Office Market Outlook ViewPoint

investment opportunities as some owners begin to

Year ended December

Source: CB Richard Ellis (March 2011)

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT: Craig Godber Senior Associate Director Global Research & Consulting CB Richard Ellis 07 3833 9888 0403 582 329 [email protected]

realistic vendors ahead of the strengthening market recovery forecast post-2012. Information in this document may have been provided to CB Richard Ellis by other people and we do not warrant that it is accurate or correct. Figures quoted are approximate only and financial information is provided without reference to the possible impact of GST. Interested parties should make their own enquiries and seek independent advice before acting. Subject to any statutory limitation on its ability to do so, CB Richard Ellis disclaims liability under any cause of action including negligence for any loss arising from reliance upon this document. This document is not an offer or part of a contract of sale. CB Richard Ellis respects your privacy and is bound by the National Privacy Principles. If you would prefer to be removed from this mailing list, please contact our Privacy Officer via phone 61 3 8621 3497, facsimile 61 3 8621 3330 or email [email protected]. A copy of our Privacy Policy can be viewed at www.cbre.com.au.

CB Richard Ellis Pty Ltd ABN 57 057 373 574, Licenced Estate Agent, Level 26, 363 George Street, Sydney, NSW 2000 T 61 2 9333 3333 F 61 2 9333 3330

Page 4 © 2010, CB Richard Ellis, Inc.

May 2011

© 2010 (CB Richard Ellis Pty Ltd) This publication is subject to copyright protection. All rights reserved. Subject to the conditions prescribed in the Copyright Act (Cth) 1968, no part of this publication may in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise), be reproduced stored in a retrieval system or transmitted to any other person, without the specific permission of the copyright owner.