Central Plaza Hotel Buy (16E TP Bt46.75)
Company Update
Close Bt42.75
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/ Overview unchanged
Tourism & Leisure August 10, 2016
2Q16 earnings were 7% below our forecast but 21% above consensus Price Performance (%)
Strong recovery for both restaurant and hotel businesses CENTEL reported 2Q16 core profit of Bt354mn (+44%YoY and ‐53%QoQ), falling short of our estimate by 7% but exceeding the market consensus by 21%. The YoY growth was made possible by recovery in both the hotel and restaurant businesses; meanwhile, the earnings contribution from the CTARAF fund exceeded our estimate by Bt20mn. The 2Q16 earnings reaffirm our upbeat view toward CENTEL’s business outlook. We thus leave our earnings projection and target price unchanged and stand by our “BUY” call as the current share price implies 10% upside to our 2016E target price. Revenue from hotel business rose by 3%YoY and GPM widened by 2% The hotel business generated revenue of Bt1,931mn, up 3%YoY, thanks to a 3.5% increase in RevPAR, which was driven by a slight improvement in the occupancy rate and a 3%YoY increase in the daily room rate. Hence, the gross profit margin also widened from 27% in 2Q15 to 29.4% in 2Q16.
Source: SET Smart
FY16
Consensus EPS Bt)
1.429
1.612
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
3.6%
‐3.2%
Reuters / Bloomberg
CENT.BK/CENTEL TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
FY17
1,350.00
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
57.00/1,622.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
40.00/15.35
52 week High / Low (Bt)
48.25/31.50
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
2,878.00 2.39
Estimated free float (%)
51.64
Beta
0.75
URL
www.centarahotelsresorts.com
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Level 4 (Certified)
Anapat Wanuschaiyapruk Analyst, no. 57076
[email protected] 66 (0) 2-624‐6289
The restaurant business picked up as anticipated CENTEL booked revenue amounting to Bt2,840mn from the restaurant business, up 8%YoY. The firm opened one more restaurant in 1Q16 and same‐store‐sales growth increased by 2.7%. Meanwhile, the gross profit margin remained flat YoY at 47.2%. All in all, the restaurant business recovered as anticipated thanks to the resumption of purchasing power in line with the economic recovery. Larger‐than‐expected expenses were offset by wider‐than‐expected GPM The operating expenses accounted for 32% of total revenue, exceeding our estimate by Bt131mn. However, the higher‐than‐expected expenses were offset by a wider‐than‐expected gross profit margin (GPM). Moreover, the firm booked a profit contribution from the CTARAF fund amounting to Bt37mn, larger than our estimate of Bt27mn. Earnings and target price remain unchanged; Buy rating maintained The 1H16 earnings account for 56% of our full‐year forecast, which remains unchanged. The recent share price implies 10% upside to our current 2016E target price of Bt46.75/share. “BUY’’ rating is maintained. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) Core EPS (Bt) Core E S growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2013 17,096 1,322 0.98 ‐17.2% 0.40 7.71 2013 43.66 16.73 5.54 0.9% 13.6% 95%
2014 17,851 1,188 0.88 ‐10.1% 0.40 6.00 2014 48.56 15.59 7.13 0.9% 12.8% 109%
2015 18,823 1,676 1.24 41.0% 0.50 6.86 2015 34.44 13.73 6.23 1.2% 19.3% 82%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 3
2016E 19,725 1,999 1.48 19.3% 0.59 7.84 2016E 28.87 13.08 5.45 1.4% 20.1% 59%
2017E 20,229 2,110 1.56 5.5% 0.63 8.81 2017E 27.36 12.74 4.85 1.5% 18.8% 42%
Figure 1: CENTEL’s 2Q16 earning review Profit and Loss (Btmn) Year‐end 31 Dec Revenue Gross profit EBITDA Interest expense Other income Income tax Gn (Ls) from affiliates Net profit (loss) Core profit (loss) Reported EPS (Bt) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Net margin (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Debt / equity (x) BVPS (Bt) ROE (%)
2Q15 4,491 1,741 909 (97) 58 (129) 8 246 246 0.18 38.8 20.2 5.5 0.4 4.1 0.7 8.4 2.1
1Q16 5,192 2,353 1,421 (82) 139 (173) 14 758 758 0.56 45.3 27.4 14.6 0.4 11.2 0.7 7.4 7.9
2Q16E 4,771 1,909 895 (79) 97 (92) 37 354 354 0.26 40.0 18.8 7.4 0.4 5.0 0.7 7.2 3.6
%YoY 6.2 9.6 (1.5) (19.1) 68.9 (29.1) 341.2 43.8 43.8 43.8
%QoQ (8.1) (18.9) (37.0) (4.0) (29.9) (47.0) 162.8 (53.3) (53.3) (53.3)
6M16E 9,963 4,262 2,316 (161) 236 (265) 51 1,112 1,112 0.82 42.8 23.3 11.2 0.4 8.2 0.7 7.2 11.5
%YoY 4.5 6.2 (1.3) (18.3) 23.3 8.4 83.2 2.9 2.9 2.9
%YoY 4.8 6.4 5.1 (16.2) 3.8 22.2 n.m. 19.3 19.3 19.3
2016E 19,725 8,253 4,490 (318) 486 (527) (5) 1,999 1,999 1.48 41.8 22.8 10.1 0.4 7.8 0.6 7.8 20.1
YTD 50.5 51.6 51.6 50.6 48.5 50.3 n.m. 55.6 55.6 55.6
Sources: CENTEL, KT Zmico Research Figure 2: Hotel business Occupancy rate Average Daily Rate Revenue Per Available Room Number of rooms
All 2Q15 76.0% 4,213 3,200 3,812
BKK 2Q16 78.4% 4,236 3,323 3,812
2Q15 79.3% 3,168 2,512 1,077
2Q16 78.6% 3,383 2,659 1,077
Upcountry 2Q15 2Q16 74.4% 78.1% 3,424 3,285 2,547 2,566 2,483 2,483
Maldives 2Q15 2Q16 76.8% 81.5% 16,401 16,718 12,596 13,625 252 252
Sources: CENTEL, KT Zmico Research Figure 3: Food business
SSSG KFC Mister Donut Auntie Anne Ootoya All Outlets KFC Mister Donut Auntie Anne Ootoya All
1Q14 ‐6.6% 2.2% ‐11.8% 5.7% ‐2.1% 316 196 118 40 752
2Q14 ‐4.2% 3.6% ‐13.7% 7.6% 0.3% 321 199 120 44 767
3Q14 3.3% 9.7% ‐12.1% 5.7% 4.9% 322 199 124 45 773
4Q14 ‐9.2% 5.9% ‐4.8% 2.3% 1.6% 324 203 125 47 781
1Q15 ‐4.7% 2.9% ‐9.6% ‐2.3% 0.6% 323 202 126 46 777
2Q15 ‐6.5% 0.5% ‐1.0% ‐4.9% ‐1.0% 320 202 126 45 774
3Q15 ‐9.3% ‐1.6% 6.2% ‐13.7% ‐3.1% 320 202 126 45 774
4Q15 4.9% 1.0% ‐0.2% ‐14.6% 0.2% 321 203 125 47 785
Sources: CENTEL, KT Zmico Research REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 3
1Q16 0.8% ‐0.1% 6.1% ‐11.1% ‐0.1% 319 207 129 47 800
2Q16 6.4% ‐6.2% 3.6% ‐2.6% 2.7% 319 208 132 45 801
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, PLE, TPOLY, M‐CHAI, CI. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of ALT, EKH, RJH.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Pass (scores: 50 – 59) No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's returns over a six‐month period due to specific coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 3
th
th
th
th
KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.