City of Westminster Overview
Westminster City Council Equality Scheme
SUPPORTING DOCUMENT 2 – Westminster People 1. Population Figures Westminster’s current published population stands at 236,031. This estimate covers the number of ‘long-term residents’ in the City as at 30th June 2008 1 . People who stay in the UK for less than a year or who are irregular migrants are not counted in these figures but will be significant in size. Much of the analysis of Westminster’s population is subject to considerable uncertainty because of the difficulty of measuring migration in the UK. ONS mid-year population estimates show that Westminster’s population has grown from 203,300 in 2001 to 236,000 in 2008, suggesting that Westminster has experienced a 16% growth in its population since the last census - one of the highest rates of growth in London. (Figure 1) Figures from 2006 to 2008 suggest that the rate of population growth in the City has slowed after a growth spurt between 2004 and 2005. In the last two years the growth in population has been largely driven by natural change (i.e. more births than deaths) following a period of growth driven substantially by migration. 95% of the population increase between 2007 and 2008 can be attributed to natural change (1,800 people) with only a further 100 due to net migration. Westminster Mid Year Population Estimates 2002 - 2008 240
(000's)
230 220 210 200 190 180 2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Figure 1
i) Age Breakdown Three quarter’s of Westminster’s population are of working age – (considerably higher than the London figure of 67% or England’s 62%) with slightly lower proportion of children 17% and considerably lower proportion of people of older people. Just 11% of Westminster’s population is over 65 compared to an England figure of 19%. There are considerable variations of this age-breakdown data within Westminster. Some wards, such as Lancaster Gate are predominantly home to households which contain solely ‘workers’ whilst the 1
The way in which population estimates are made, has been the subject of much scrutiny with some significant concerns that the modelled ‘migration’ component of the change in population from year to year may not be accurate. The Office of National Statistics (ONS) has attempted to improve population statistics a number of times since the 2001 Census and this population figure itself is subject to revisions.
1
Westminster City Council Equality Scheme
wards with a higher level of social housing tend to contain a higher proportion of children and older people. Population growth continues for children, adults and older people. Between 2005-6 over 80% of growth was in the working age adults cohort, but as net migration falls, and natural causes have become the predominant driver of change this has reduced considerably. Table 1
Westminster Historical Mid Year Estimates - ONS MYE 0-19's Population Change Year on Year % Change MYE 20 - 64's Population Change Year on Year % Change MYE 65+ Population Change Year on Year
2004 37.6
2004 158
2004 24.9
% Change
2005 38.8 1.2 3.19% 2005 164.7 6.7 4.24% 2005 25.2 0.3
2006 39 0.2 0.52% 2006 167.7 3 1.82% 2006 25.3 0.1
2007 39.3 0.3 0.77% 2007 169.4 1.7 1.01% 2007 25.6 0.3
2008 39.6 0.3 0.76% 2008 170.4 1 0.59% 2008 26 0.4
1.20%
0.40%
1.19%
1.56%
ii) Ethnicity There are several sources of ethnicity data of residents, both of which use the 2001 census as a base. Westminster’s ethnicity data only partially shows how diverse the population really is, as there are a wider number of nationalities found within each ethnic group than anywhere else in the UK. This diversity also means that there are no dominant groups. Westminster’s prominence as a cultural and business venue attracts international migrants from all over the globe, and as an additional pull there are sizeable community groups such as Arab and Chinese which are more prevalent in the City than elsewhere, who attract more in-migration from their countries of origin. Westminster is also home to the largest number of short-term international migrants, and is also likely to be a home for substantial numbers of irregular or illegal migrants. Table 2
2001 Census
Westminster %
London %
England & Wales %
White
73.2
71.2
91.3
Mixed
4.1
3.2
1.3
Asian
8.9
12.1
4.4
Black
7.4
10.9
2.2
Chinese / Other
6.3
2.7
0.9
Language data suggests that the Arab population is actually the second largest ethnic group in Westminster. Precise counts have been difficult as this group was not captured as a category in the 2001 census, although they will be in 2011. 2
Westminster City Council Equality Scheme
Since 2001, there have been increased numbers of White British, A8 nationals (Eastern European States who joined the EU in 2004), Asian and ‘Other’ groups. Long standing communities which appear to be in most decline are the Irish and Black Caribbean.
Ethnic Breakdown in Westminster - All Ages Irish 2.6% Black African 3.3%
Bangladeshi Other Asian Black Caribbean 1.0% 2.2% 2.1% Pakistani 1.6%
Other Black 0.7%
Chinese 3.3%
Mixed 5.0% Other 4.1% Indian 5.5%
Other White 18.8%
White British 49.8%
Figure 2
The ethnicity of under children (under 15’s) is even more diverse than the general population. Almost 70% of children in 2008 were born to mothers who themselves were not born in the UK. Ethnic groups which are particularly more prominent include the ‘mixed’ categories which accounts for 1 in 9 of all children, groups who have a higher fertility rate such as Bangladeshi’s and groups with high numbers of recent asylum seekers and refugees such as Black Africans.
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Westminster City Council Equality Scheme
Ethnic Breakdown in Westminster - Under 15's Indian 4.0%
Other 3.3%
Other Asian 2.6%
Chinese 2.0% Black Caribbean 2.3%
Black African 5.3%
Pakistani Other Black 1.3% 1.3% Irish 0.7%
Bangladeshi 5.3%
Mixed 11.6%
White British 46.3% Other White 13.9%
Figure 3
The ONS produce annual experimental ethnic breakdowns which provide some age-splits, whilst the GLA produce ethnic projections. Both data sets rely on grouping some of the ethnic categories together to produce robust figures, a methodology which is unhelpful in Westminster, where merging groups such as ‘other whites’ into an overall white figure creates an unreasonable homogeneity. Change in Westminster's Ethnic Profile census 2001 to MYE 2007 60.0%
2001
50.0%
2007
30.0% 20.0%
W hi te
W hi te
Ethnic Groups
Figure 4
iii) Religion
4
O th er
In di an P ak is t B an ani gl ad es O hi th er B la A ck si an C ar ib be B la an ck A fri ca O n th er B la ck C hi ne se
0.0%
an O I d th rish e B W la r W ck hi h te C ite an ar ib d be B la an ck W Af hi ric te an an d A si O an th er M ix ed
10.0%
B rit is h
% of total po
40.0%
Westminster City Council Equality Scheme
The 2001 census was the first to try and capture information about people’s religion, and the response was optional. There is therefore no previous information from which to make comparisons. Categories in 2001 were Christian, Buddhist, Hindu, Jewish, Muslim, Sikh, Other, No Religion and Not Stated. Just over half of Westminster’s residents are Christian, whilst the next largest group of residents stated that they had ‘no religion’. Islam was the third largest religion in the City. •
71.7% of the average English authority’s residents were Christian, Westminster’s proportion is considerably lower (55.1%)
•
The proportion of Westminster’s residents (16.2%) with no religion was higher than the national average (14.6%), but lower than the Inner London average (18.3%).
•
Westminster’s population also contains the highest proportion of Buddhist residents in the country, the 8th highest Jewish and the 13th highest Muslim.
iv) Disability Census data on Long Term Limiting Illness (LTLI) which is defined as an ‘illness, health problem or disability which limits daily activities or the work’ is used a proxy for disability. One of the major issues with the use of data from this source is that it is entirely down to self-assessment, and that perceptions may vary across ages cultures, ages and areas. Disability according to the 1995 DDA applies to someone who has a physical or mental impairment, which has an effect on his or her ability to carry out normal day-to-day activities. That effect must be substantial and adverse and long term (i.e. it has lasted or is likely to last for at least a year or for the rest of the life of the person affected). The census offers no breakdown diagnosis for residents with Long Term Limiting Illness, so it is impossible to ascertain whether problems are relate to visual, hearing, mobility, learning, mental health, disfigurement or other (such as epilepsy) disabilities, and therefore whether social conditions are appropriate. In Westminster 14.8% of people were recorded as having a long term limiting illness through the census, applied to the current population that would represent around 35,164 people. 21% of households contain at least one disabled person, 3% contain two or more and 1.5% are households where the disabled resident is also the main carer. Westminster has fractionally lower levels of people suffering from LTLI than London as a whole, but follows a very similar trend in residents accumulating LTLI’s as they get older.
5
Westminster City Council Equality Scheme
Long Term Lim ited Illness by Age in W estm inster 50.0% 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% People 0-15 W ith People 16-49 People 50-64 People 65+ W ith Limiting Long-Term W ith Lim iting Long- W ith Lim iting Long- Lim iting Long-Term Illness Term Illness Term Illness Illness
Figure 5
Only 3% of individuals are born with a disability (figures in Westminster’s census for 0-2’s suggest 2.3%), and the figures for Long Term Limited Illness from the census also bear out the fact that age is a significant determinant in the likelihood of having disability. There are also considerable differences in the prevalence of disabilities between different ethnic groups. Long established groups such as Irish and Black Caribbean experience considerably higher levels. People w ith Long Term Limited Illnesses by Ethnicity 35.0%
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
Chinese
Indian
Other White
White and Black Caribbean
Other Ethnic Group
Other Mixed
White and Asian
Black African
Pakistani
Other Black
Bangladeshi
White and Black African
British
Other Asian
Black Caribbean
Irish
ALL PEOPLE
0.0%
Figure 6
v) LGBT (Lesbian Gay Bisexual and Transgender) It is difficult to estimate the size of the LGBT population. Sigma research carried out a needs assessment of LGBT people in Lambeth, and estimated the size of the population to be 5% (Keogh et al, 2006). This took into account a national survey which found that 3.9% 6
Westminster City Council Equality Scheme
of women and 5.5% of men aged 16-44 and living in London had had a same gender sex partner in the previous 5 years. Other studies have found that the population proportion in inner London is higher than that of London in general (estimated at 7% on the City Parochial Foundation Website) a greater representation than the UK as a whole. This and the presence of the scene in Soho suggest that in Westminster the consideration of the needs of LGBT people should be greater than in the rest of the UK. Using the 5% estimate and applying this to the population over 15 years old in Westminster, suggests that 10,165 LGBT people live in Westminster. This is a conservative estimate and does not consider the large LGBT population who work or visit the City. It is very difficult to get accurate estimates on the numbers of Transgender individuals, estimates from the Transgender explored website 2 quotes research that suggests that 1 in 5000 people are transsexual – or around 40-50 in Westminster. Research commissioned by the Council from GALOP in March 2008 suggests that 6% of an LGBT pool of people (both visitors and residents) identified themselves either now or in the past as a Trans person.
2. Population Forecasts and Changes i) Background Population forecasts are a critical part of any assessment for community profiling and planning future service needs, however in Westminster it has been difficult since the 2001 census to produce a single set of reliable data from the two main sources (ONS and the GLA) and usually it is better to work within a range. There are two main issues which cause the two main population projection figures to deviate from each other i)
The lack of robustness of a base population count. For most Local Authorities the GLA and ONS projections start at the same population base, however for Westminster the GLA and ONS differ, with the GLA figure being considerably lower.
ii) The different methodologies used to make projections - the key difference being the
introduction of a housing capacity variable to ‘cap’ population projections by the GLA. ii) Projection Data ONS Projections are important because they are the official statistics which underpin the financial settlement, national indicators etc. ONS projections are based on past trends and are therefore not good at picking up alterations in migration patterns caused by economic or policy changes, such as changes to immigration rules. The last population projection made by the ONS was produced in 2008 and is based on the 2006 MYE. Figures show a continual rise, compared to the previous projection based on the 2004 population base; the rate of increase was already slowing down. Comparing historical projections (in 2006 and the previous projection in 2004) to the actual 2008 population estimates, Westminster’s population has not grown as fast as the ONS had anticipated. This is likely to be due to projections being artificially inflated by the ONS model or poor population estimate methodology rather than an unexpected slowing in population growth. 2
(http://www.transgenderexplored.com/2008_06_01_archive.html)
7
Westminster City Council Equality Scheme
ONS 2006 Final Population Projections vs. Final 2004 ONS Population Projections (used in settlement for 2008/9, 9/10 and 10/11) 450 400 350
(000's)
300
Previous 2004 based population figures
250 200
2006 based population projections
150 100 50
20 30
20 28
20 26
20 24
20 22
20 20
20 18
20 16
20 14
20 12
20 10
20 08
20 06
20 04
0
Figure 7
GLA Projections are always lower than ONS Projections. The GLA base MYE for Westminster is lower than the ONS figure, which means it cannot be reconciled with other data which requires the official population figures to be used. The GLA projections are available in ward, ethnicity, gender and age and are therefore more flexible for usage than the ONS. The GLA takes housing availability for residents as one of the limiting variables in their model. Westminster’s experience is that the property stock in the City is so flexible in terms of household occupation that this may not be such a limiting factor. The latest GLA model starts from a MYE 2008 base, and includes a high and low figure. Unfortunately both projected figures start with over 20,000 people fewer than the ONS MYE 2008 figure. The GLA population projections also show a continuous growth in the number of Westminster residents, but at a much slower rate than the ONS figures.
8
Westminster City Council Equality Scheme
Population Projections - ONS vs GLA 320000
GLA 2008 Low GLA 2008 High
Westminster Population
300000
ONS 2006 Actual MYE Linear (Actual MYE)
280000 260000 240000
220000
2025
2020
2015
2010
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
200000
Figure 8
Figure 8 shows the difference between the two projection figures, the actual MYE’s since 2004 are also shown – (the trend line for the MYE figures is hugely dependent on the historical years selected). iii) Migration Westminster is subject to huge population churn. This arises from the City’s inward pull on migrants because of established communities and/or opportunities, and the outward push as a result of very high property prices that mean many people leave the City to start families. Between 2007 and 2008 almost 10,000 people came to live in Westminster from overseas, whilst just over 7,000 left to live abroad. In the same period over 17,000 people arrived to live in the City from elsewhere in the UK whilst 20,000 people left to live elsewhere in the UK. If short-term migrants are added in, then the population churn overall is vast – between 25% and 30% of the total population. There are a number of different data-sets available which augment the above national migration data. Workers Registration Scheme (WRS) measure in-migration of workers from the Eastern European States that acceded to the EU in 2004. Statistics suggest that over 23,000 people from A8 states (Poles accounting for 54% of this number) registered with businesses based in Westminster in the five years from May 2003 to May 2008, by far the highest number in the UK. However it is worth noting that the WRS does not capture all A8 migrants, and is based on business location rather than individual address. New National Insurance Numbers (NiNo) also provide some indication of the magnitude of migration to the City. It generally provides in-migrant data on all nationalities, (although there are some exceptions), but like WRS data capture workers rather than all people. Over 50,000 individuals applied for a new number between 2003 and 2008. The highest
9
Westminster City Council Equality Scheme
nationalities identified being Australians, French, Italians, Americans, Poles, Spanish, Germans, New Zealanders, Swedes and Indians. Flag 4 is the term given to data captured by GP’s when foreign migrants first register with
them. There are usually around 7-7,700 new registrations a year in Westminster or around 42,000 people between 2004 and 2009, however there are no details available on nationality. In theory this data set captures the full range of residents, as it is a wider base than workers, but in practice many of the migrants attracted to Westminster for economic reasons are young and do not register with GP’s. All of these indicators which can be used to build a picture of incoming communities around Westminster are seriously undermined by the lack of out-migration data. The International Passenger survey is the only measure of out-migration, and its robustness is open to serious question.
3. Socio-Economic Factors Deprivation Deprivation can be identified through a wide variety of indicators but the single most used set of data are the Indices of Deprivation (ID). The ID is a useful way of considering a complex and combined set of needs across communities. They are widely used when considering funding priorities nationally, but also very useful in comparing the relative needs of small areas for prioritisation purposes. The latest ID is that for 2007, and therefore pre-dates the economic slowdown which began in 2008. Westminster Data (Please note figures in brackets refer to ranks according to ID 2004) •
Overall ID 2004 Rank – 72nd (39th) most deprived out of 354 districts in England (using the ‘rank of average score figures). Deprivation in Westminster is deemed by the new index to have fallen substantially between 2004 and 2007 and is the only London Borough ranked in the top 50 most deprived local authorities in 2004 which is not still there in 2007. The number of SOA’s falling within the top 20% of derivation has fallen across all of the key domains.
•
Westminster deprivation on the ‘Rank of Local Concentration’ measure which ranks it 69th (19th) out of 354 districts has fallen even more dramatically. In 2004 Westminster was deemed to be significantly more deprived on this measure because of the presence of several areas of severe multiple deprivation in the City. This is no longer considered to be the case.
•
In London, Westminster has an overall ID rank of 15th (9th) most deprived of the 33 London Boroughs. Tower Hamlets, Hackney and Islington were amongst the top 10 deprived boroughs in England in 2004 and they are now joined by Newham.
10
Westminster City Council Equality Scheme
Map 1
Results within Westminster •
The aggregated Index of Deprivation (ID) in Westminster indicates that deprivation is now much more concentrated in the North West and South parts of the City.
•
Queen’s Park now contains the single worst deprivation area for Income Affecting Children in England, this was found in Church Street in 2004.
•
15 (21) Super Output Areas 3 (SOAs) 12.5% are in the top 10% most deprived in England, and a further 12 (21) SOA’s are in the top 20%
Table 1
Domain
% of Westminster SOA’s Deprivation in England
Overall Income Employment Health Education, Skills Barriers to Housing and Services Crime and Disorder Living Environment
12.5% (17.5%) 16% (17%) 7.5% (13%) 6.5% (13%) 0% (0%) 72% (100%) 9% (17%) 63% (65%)
No of people in deprivation in Westminster – Working Age 3
Smaller areas within a Ward
11
in
top
10%
of
Westminster City Council Equality Scheme •
The ID doesn’t allow for an easy estimation of numbers of working age people in deprivation because of the complexity of the indicators. However, as a proxy, and keeping some consistency with Children and Older People, estimates have been made on by ward, based on the total number of working-age people on at least one benefit (JSA, IC, Lone Parent etc) published by the DWP.
No of people in deprivation in Westminster - Children and Older People. •
The IMD includes a domain which estimates the proportion of the age group (under 16’s or over 60) in receipt of or in a family in receipt of certain means-tested benefits. The ONS have also released the population of these age groups in each Lower Super Output Area, so it is possible to estimate numbers of Children and Older People by ward who are ‘deprived’, as the table in Appendix 1 shows highest and lowest figures.
Ward
Westbourne Queen's Park Harrow Road Church Street Churchill St. James's Maida Vale Vincent Square Regent's Park Little Venice Hyde Park Lancaster Gate Bayswater Warwick Tachbrook West End Bryanston and Dorset Square Abbey Road Marylebone High Street Knightsbridge and Belgravia Total
No of Older Total People aged 60+ in Income Deprived Households
% of Westminster ’s Deprived Population
No of Working Age People on at least one benefit
No of Children aged 0-15 in Income Deprived Households
2,190 2,210 1,830 1,175 2,215 1,360 1,005 1,025 715 805 885 815 805 730 580 690
1779 1678 1189 1628 780 318 616 458 406 487 277 291 240 236 245 140
587 603 513 724 351 290 319 301 492 291 263 301 254 244 349 237
4556 4491 3532 3527 3346 1968 1940 1784 1613 1583 1425 1407 1299 1210 1174 1067
11.9% 11.7% 9.2% 9.2% 8.7% 5.1% 5.1% 4.6% 4.2% 4.1% 3.7% 3.7% 3.4% 3.1% 3.1% 2.8%
585 420 265
144 169 103
207 264 197
936 853 565
2.4% 2.2% 1.5%
70
12
55
137
0.4%
20,375
11,196
6,842
38,413
100.0%
Deprivation levels involving children are a clear concern. Wards with the highest concentration of children, are also the most deprived and overall almost 2 in 5 Westminster children live in a household reliant on benefits. Westminster also contains the single most deprived SOA in England for “Children Affected by Income Deprivation” this SOA is situated in Queens’ Park.
12
Westminster City Council Equality Scheme
Age Group
Adults Children Older People Total
No in Deprivation (IMD Total Population (MYE % in Deprivation 2007 + DWP) 2005 – as used for ID)
20,375 11,196 6,842 38,413
169,300 29700 29,000 228,000
50% of the ‘deprived’ population live in just 5 wards, in descending order of numbers Westbourne, Queens’ Park, Harrow Road, Church Street and Churchill. Within those wards it is possible to identify still further pockets of the most intense deprivation.
13
12.0% 37.7% 23.6% 16.8%
SUPPORTING DOCUMENT 2 – Westminster People 1. Population Figures Westminster’s current published population stands at 236,031. This estimate covers the number of ‘long-term residents’ in the City as at 30th June 2008 1 . People who stay in the UK for less than a year or who are irregular migrants are not counted in these figures but will be significant in size. Much of the analysis of Westminster’s population is subject to considerable uncertainty because of the difficulty of measuring migration in the UK. ONS mid-year population estimates show that Westminster’s population has grown from 203,300 in 2001 to 236,000 in 2008, suggesting that Westminster has experienced a 16% growth in its population since the last census - one of the highest rates of growth in London. (Figure 1) Figures from 2006 to 2008 suggest that the rate of population growth in the City has slowed after a growth spurt between 2004 and 2005. In the last two years the growth in population has been largely driven by natural change (i.e. more births than deaths) following a period of growth driven substantially by migration. 95% of the population increase between 2007 and 2008 can be attributed to natural change (1,800 people) with only a further 100 due to net migration. Westminster Mid Year Population Estimates 2002 - 2008 240
(000's)
230 220 210 200 190 180 2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Figure 1
i) Age Breakdown Three quarter’s of Westminster’s population are of working age – (considerably higher than the London figure of 67% or England’s 62%) with slightly lower proportion of children 17% and considerably lower proportion of people of older people. Just 11% of Westminster’s population is over 65 compared to an England figure of 19%. There are considerable variations of this age-breakdown data within Westminster. Some wards, such as Lancaster Gate are predominantly home to households which contain solely ‘workers’ whilst the 1
The way in which population estimates are made, has been the subject of much scrutiny with some significant concerns that the modelled ‘migration’ component of the change in population from year to year may not be accurate. The Office of National Statistics (ONS) has attempted to improve population statistics a number of times since the 2001 Census and this population figure itself is subject to revisions.
1
Westminster City Council Equality Scheme
wards with a higher level of social housing tend to contain a higher proportion of children and older people. Population growth continues for children, adults and older people. Between 2005-6 over 80% of growth was in the working age adults cohort, but as net migration falls, and natural causes have become the predominant driver of change this has reduced considerably. Table 1
Westminster Historical Mid Year Estimates - ONS MYE 0-19's Population Change Year on Year % Change MYE 20 - 64's Population Change Year on Year % Change MYE 65+ Population Change Year on Year
2004 37.6
2004 158
2004 24.9
% Change
2005 38.8 1.2 3.19% 2005 164.7 6.7 4.24% 2005 25.2 0.3
2006 39 0.2 0.52% 2006 167.7 3 1.82% 2006 25.3 0.1
2007 39.3 0.3 0.77% 2007 169.4 1.7 1.01% 2007 25.6 0.3
2008 39.6 0.3 0.76% 2008 170.4 1 0.59% 2008 26 0.4
1.20%
0.40%
1.19%
1.56%
ii) Ethnicity There are several sources of ethnicity data of residents, both of which use the 2001 census as a base. Westminster’s ethnicity data only partially shows how diverse the population really is, as there are a wider number of nationalities found within each ethnic group than anywhere else in the UK. This diversity also means that there are no dominant groups. Westminster’s prominence as a cultural and business venue attracts international migrants from all over the globe, and as an additional pull there are sizeable community groups such as Arab and Chinese which are more prevalent in the City than elsewhere, who attract more in-migration from their countries of origin. Westminster is also home to the largest number of short-term international migrants, and is also likely to be a home for substantial numbers of irregular or illegal migrants. Table 2
2001 Census
Westminster %
London %
England & Wales %
White
73.2
71.2
91.3
Mixed
4.1
3.2
1.3
Asian
8.9
12.1
4.4
Black
7.4
10.9
2.2
Chinese / Other
6.3
2.7
0.9
Language data suggests that the Arab population is actually the second largest ethnic group in Westminster. Precise counts have been difficult as this group was not captured as a category in the 2001 census, although they will be in 2011. 2
Westminster City Council Equality Scheme
Since 2001, there have been increased numbers of White British, A8 nationals (Eastern European States who joined the EU in 2004), Asian and ‘Other’ groups. Long standing communities which appear to be in most decline are the Irish and Black Caribbean.
Ethnic Breakdown in Westminster - All Ages Irish 2.6% Black African 3.3%
Bangladeshi Other Asian Black Caribbean 1.0% 2.2% 2.1% Pakistani 1.6%
Other Black 0.7%
Chinese 3.3%
Mixed 5.0% Other 4.1% Indian 5.5%
Other White 18.8%
White British 49.8%
Figure 2
The ethnicity of under children (under 15’s) is even more diverse than the general population. Almost 70% of children in 2008 were born to mothers who themselves were not born in the UK. Ethnic groups which are particularly more prominent include the ‘mixed’ categories which accounts for 1 in 9 of all children, groups who have a higher fertility rate such as Bangladeshi’s and groups with high numbers of recent asylum seekers and refugees such as Black Africans.
3
Westminster City Council Equality Scheme
Ethnic Breakdown in Westminster - Under 15's Indian 4.0%
Other 3.3%
Other Asian 2.6%
Chinese 2.0% Black Caribbean 2.3%
Black African 5.3%
Pakistani Other Black 1.3% 1.3% Irish 0.7%
Bangladeshi 5.3%
Mixed 11.6%
White British 46.3% Other White 13.9%
Figure 3
The ONS produce annual experimental ethnic breakdowns which provide some age-splits, whilst the GLA produce ethnic projections. Both data sets rely on grouping some of the ethnic categories together to produce robust figures, a methodology which is unhelpful in Westminster, where merging groups such as ‘other whites’ into an overall white figure creates an unreasonable homogeneity. Change in Westminster's Ethnic Profile census 2001 to MYE 2007 60.0%
2001
50.0%
2007
30.0% 20.0%
W hi te
W hi te
Ethnic Groups
Figure 4
iii) Religion
4
O th er
In di an P ak is t B an ani gl ad es O hi th er B la A ck si an C ar ib be B la an ck A fri ca O n th er B la ck C hi ne se
0.0%
an O I d th rish e B W la r W ck hi h te C ite an ar ib d be B la an ck W Af hi ric te an an d A si O an th er M ix ed
10.0%
B rit is h
% of total po
40.0%
Westminster City Council Equality Scheme
The 2001 census was the first to try and capture information about people’s religion, and the response was optional. There is therefore no previous information from which to make comparisons. Categories in 2001 were Christian, Buddhist, Hindu, Jewish, Muslim, Sikh, Other, No Religion and Not Stated. Just over half of Westminster’s residents are Christian, whilst the next largest group of residents stated that they had ‘no religion’. Islam was the third largest religion in the City. •
71.7% of the average English authority’s residents were Christian, Westminster’s proportion is considerably lower (55.1%)
•
The proportion of Westminster’s residents (16.2%) with no religion was higher than the national average (14.6%), but lower than the Inner London average (18.3%).
•
Westminster’s population also contains the highest proportion of Buddhist residents in the country, the 8th highest Jewish and the 13th highest Muslim.
iv) Disability Census data on Long Term Limiting Illness (LTLI) which is defined as an ‘illness, health problem or disability which limits daily activities or the work’ is used a proxy for disability. One of the major issues with the use of data from this source is that it is entirely down to self-assessment, and that perceptions may vary across ages cultures, ages and areas. Disability according to the 1995 DDA applies to someone who has a physical or mental impairment, which has an effect on his or her ability to carry out normal day-to-day activities. That effect must be substantial and adverse and long term (i.e. it has lasted or is likely to last for at least a year or for the rest of the life of the person affected). The census offers no breakdown diagnosis for residents with Long Term Limiting Illness, so it is impossible to ascertain whether problems are relate to visual, hearing, mobility, learning, mental health, disfigurement or other (such as epilepsy) disabilities, and therefore whether social conditions are appropriate. In Westminster 14.8% of people were recorded as having a long term limiting illness through the census, applied to the current population that would represent around 35,164 people. 21% of households contain at least one disabled person, 3% contain two or more and 1.5% are households where the disabled resident is also the main carer. Westminster has fractionally lower levels of people suffering from LTLI than London as a whole, but follows a very similar trend in residents accumulating LTLI’s as they get older.
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Westminster City Council Equality Scheme
Long Term Lim ited Illness by Age in W estm inster 50.0% 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% People 0-15 W ith People 16-49 People 50-64 People 65+ W ith Limiting Long-Term W ith Lim iting Long- W ith Lim iting Long- Lim iting Long-Term Illness Term Illness Term Illness Illness
Figure 5
Only 3% of individuals are born with a disability (figures in Westminster’s census for 0-2’s suggest 2.3%), and the figures for Long Term Limited Illness from the census also bear out the fact that age is a significant determinant in the likelihood of having disability. There are also considerable differences in the prevalence of disabilities between different ethnic groups. Long established groups such as Irish and Black Caribbean experience considerably higher levels. People w ith Long Term Limited Illnesses by Ethnicity 35.0%
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
Chinese
Indian
Other White
White and Black Caribbean
Other Ethnic Group
Other Mixed
White and Asian
Black African
Pakistani
Other Black
Bangladeshi
White and Black African
British
Other Asian
Black Caribbean
Irish
ALL PEOPLE
0.0%
Figure 6
v) LGBT (Lesbian Gay Bisexual and Transgender) It is difficult to estimate the size of the LGBT population. Sigma research carried out a needs assessment of LGBT people in Lambeth, and estimated the size of the population to be 5% (Keogh et al, 2006). This took into account a national survey which found that 3.9% 6
Westminster City Council Equality Scheme
of women and 5.5% of men aged 16-44 and living in London had had a same gender sex partner in the previous 5 years. Other studies have found that the population proportion in inner London is higher than that of London in general (estimated at 7% on the City Parochial Foundation Website) a greater representation than the UK as a whole. This and the presence of the scene in Soho suggest that in Westminster the consideration of the needs of LGBT people should be greater than in the rest of the UK. Using the 5% estimate and applying this to the population over 15 years old in Westminster, suggests that 10,165 LGBT people live in Westminster. This is a conservative estimate and does not consider the large LGBT population who work or visit the City. It is very difficult to get accurate estimates on the numbers of Transgender individuals, estimates from the Transgender explored website 2 quotes research that suggests that 1 in 5000 people are transsexual – or around 40-50 in Westminster. Research commissioned by the Council from GALOP in March 2008 suggests that 6% of an LGBT pool of people (both visitors and residents) identified themselves either now or in the past as a Trans person.
2. Population Forecasts and Changes i) Background Population forecasts are a critical part of any assessment for community profiling and planning future service needs, however in Westminster it has been difficult since the 2001 census to produce a single set of reliable data from the two main sources (ONS and the GLA) and usually it is better to work within a range. There are two main issues which cause the two main population projection figures to deviate from each other i)
The lack of robustness of a base population count. For most Local Authorities the GLA and ONS projections start at the same population base, however for Westminster the GLA and ONS differ, with the GLA figure being considerably lower.
ii) The different methodologies used to make projections - the key difference being the
introduction of a housing capacity variable to ‘cap’ population projections by the GLA. ii) Projection Data ONS Projections are important because they are the official statistics which underpin the financial settlement, national indicators etc. ONS projections are based on past trends and are therefore not good at picking up alterations in migration patterns caused by economic or policy changes, such as changes to immigration rules. The last population projection made by the ONS was produced in 2008 and is based on the 2006 MYE. Figures show a continual rise, compared to the previous projection based on the 2004 population base; the rate of increase was already slowing down. Comparing historical projections (in 2006 and the previous projection in 2004) to the actual 2008 population estimates, Westminster’s population has not grown as fast as the ONS had anticipated. This is likely to be due to projections being artificially inflated by the ONS model or poor population estimate methodology rather than an unexpected slowing in population growth. 2
(http://www.transgenderexplored.com/2008_06_01_archive.html)
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Westminster City Council Equality Scheme
ONS 2006 Final Population Projections vs. Final 2004 ONS Population Projections (used in settlement for 2008/9, 9/10 and 10/11) 450 400 350
(000's)
300
Previous 2004 based population figures
250 200
2006 based population projections
150 100 50
20 30
20 28
20 26
20 24
20 22
20 20
20 18
20 16
20 14
20 12
20 10
20 08
20 06
20 04
0
Figure 7
GLA Projections are always lower than ONS Projections. The GLA base MYE for Westminster is lower than the ONS figure, which means it cannot be reconciled with other data which requires the official population figures to be used. The GLA projections are available in ward, ethnicity, gender and age and are therefore more flexible for usage than the ONS. The GLA takes housing availability for residents as one of the limiting variables in their model. Westminster’s experience is that the property stock in the City is so flexible in terms of household occupation that this may not be such a limiting factor. The latest GLA model starts from a MYE 2008 base, and includes a high and low figure. Unfortunately both projected figures start with over 20,000 people fewer than the ONS MYE 2008 figure. The GLA population projections also show a continuous growth in the number of Westminster residents, but at a much slower rate than the ONS figures.
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Westminster City Council Equality Scheme
Population Projections - ONS vs GLA 320000
GLA 2008 Low GLA 2008 High
Westminster Population
300000
ONS 2006 Actual MYE Linear (Actual MYE)
280000 260000 240000
220000
2025
2020
2015
2010
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
200000
Figure 8
Figure 8 shows the difference between the two projection figures, the actual MYE’s since 2004 are also shown – (the trend line for the MYE figures is hugely dependent on the historical years selected). iii) Migration Westminster is subject to huge population churn. This arises from the City’s inward pull on migrants because of established communities and/or opportunities, and the outward push as a result of very high property prices that mean many people leave the City to start families. Between 2007 and 2008 almost 10,000 people came to live in Westminster from overseas, whilst just over 7,000 left to live abroad. In the same period over 17,000 people arrived to live in the City from elsewhere in the UK whilst 20,000 people left to live elsewhere in the UK. If short-term migrants are added in, then the population churn overall is vast – between 25% and 30% of the total population. There are a number of different data-sets available which augment the above national migration data. Workers Registration Scheme (WRS) measure in-migration of workers from the Eastern European States that acceded to the EU in 2004. Statistics suggest that over 23,000 people from A8 states (Poles accounting for 54% of this number) registered with businesses based in Westminster in the five years from May 2003 to May 2008, by far the highest number in the UK. However it is worth noting that the WRS does not capture all A8 migrants, and is based on business location rather than individual address. New National Insurance Numbers (NiNo) also provide some indication of the magnitude of migration to the City. It generally provides in-migrant data on all nationalities, (although there are some exceptions), but like WRS data capture workers rather than all people. Over 50,000 individuals applied for a new number between 2003 and 2008. The highest
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Westminster City Council Equality Scheme
nationalities identified being Australians, French, Italians, Americans, Poles, Spanish, Germans, New Zealanders, Swedes and Indians. Flag 4 is the term given to data captured by GP’s when foreign migrants first register with
them. There are usually around 7-7,700 new registrations a year in Westminster or around 42,000 people between 2004 and 2009, however there are no details available on nationality. In theory this data set captures the full range of residents, as it is a wider base than workers, but in practice many of the migrants attracted to Westminster for economic reasons are young and do not register with GP’s. All of these indicators which can be used to build a picture of incoming communities around Westminster are seriously undermined by the lack of out-migration data. The International Passenger survey is the only measure of out-migration, and its robustness is open to serious question.
3. Socio-Economic Factors Deprivation Deprivation can be identified through a wide variety of indicators but the single most used set of data are the Indices of Deprivation (ID). The ID is a useful way of considering a complex and combined set of needs across communities. They are widely used when considering funding priorities nationally, but also very useful in comparing the relative needs of small areas for prioritisation purposes. The latest ID is that for 2007, and therefore pre-dates the economic slowdown which began in 2008. Westminster Data (Please note figures in brackets refer to ranks according to ID 2004) •
Overall ID 2004 Rank – 72nd (39th) most deprived out of 354 districts in England (using the ‘rank of average score figures). Deprivation in Westminster is deemed by the new index to have fallen substantially between 2004 and 2007 and is the only London Borough ranked in the top 50 most deprived local authorities in 2004 which is not still there in 2007. The number of SOA’s falling within the top 20% of derivation has fallen across all of the key domains.
•
Westminster deprivation on the ‘Rank of Local Concentration’ measure which ranks it 69th (19th) out of 354 districts has fallen even more dramatically. In 2004 Westminster was deemed to be significantly more deprived on this measure because of the presence of several areas of severe multiple deprivation in the City. This is no longer considered to be the case.
•
In London, Westminster has an overall ID rank of 15th (9th) most deprived of the 33 London Boroughs. Tower Hamlets, Hackney and Islington were amongst the top 10 deprived boroughs in England in 2004 and they are now joined by Newham.
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Westminster City Council Equality Scheme
Map 1
Results within Westminster •
The aggregated Index of Deprivation (ID) in Westminster indicates that deprivation is now much more concentrated in the North West and South parts of the City.
•
Queen’s Park now contains the single worst deprivation area for Income Affecting Children in England, this was found in Church Street in 2004.
•
15 (21) Super Output Areas 3 (SOAs) 12.5% are in the top 10% most deprived in England, and a further 12 (21) SOA’s are in the top 20%
Table 1
Domain
% of Westminster SOA’s Deprivation in England
Overall Income Employment Health Education, Skills Barriers to Housing and Services Crime and Disorder Living Environment
12.5% (17.5%) 16% (17%) 7.5% (13%) 6.5% (13%) 0% (0%) 72% (100%) 9% (17%) 63% (65%)
No of people in deprivation in Westminster – Working Age 3
Smaller areas within a Ward
11
in
top
10%
of
Westminster City Council Equality Scheme •
The ID doesn’t allow for an easy estimation of numbers of working age people in deprivation because of the complexity of the indicators. However, as a proxy, and keeping some consistency with Children and Older People, estimates have been made on by ward, based on the total number of working-age people on at least one benefit (JSA, IC, Lone Parent etc) published by the DWP.
No of people in deprivation in Westminster - Children and Older People. •
The IMD includes a domain which estimates the proportion of the age group (under 16’s or over 60) in receipt of or in a family in receipt of certain means-tested benefits. The ONS have also released the population of these age groups in each Lower Super Output Area, so it is possible to estimate numbers of Children and Older People by ward who are ‘deprived’, as the table in Appendix 1 shows highest and lowest figures.
Ward
Westbourne Queen's Park Harrow Road Church Street Churchill St. James's Maida Vale Vincent Square Regent's Park Little Venice Hyde Park Lancaster Gate Bayswater Warwick Tachbrook West End Bryanston and Dorset Square Abbey Road Marylebone High Street Knightsbridge and Belgravia Total
No of Older Total People aged 60+ in Income Deprived Households
% of Westminster ’s Deprived Population
No of Working Age People on at least one benefit
No of Children aged 0-15 in Income Deprived Households
2,190 2,210 1,830 1,175 2,215 1,360 1,005 1,025 715 805 885 815 805 730 580 690
1779 1678 1189 1628 780 318 616 458 406 487 277 291 240 236 245 140
587 603 513 724 351 290 319 301 492 291 263 301 254 244 349 237
4556 4491 3532 3527 3346 1968 1940 1784 1613 1583 1425 1407 1299 1210 1174 1067
11.9% 11.7% 9.2% 9.2% 8.7% 5.1% 5.1% 4.6% 4.2% 4.1% 3.7% 3.7% 3.4% 3.1% 3.1% 2.8%
585 420 265
144 169 103
207 264 197
936 853 565
2.4% 2.2% 1.5%
70
12
55
137
0.4%
20,375
11,196
6,842
38,413
100.0%
Deprivation levels involving children are a clear concern. Wards with the highest concentration of children, are also the most deprived and overall almost 2 in 5 Westminster children live in a household reliant on benefits. Westminster also contains the single most deprived SOA in England for “Children Affected by Income Deprivation” this SOA is situated in Queens’ Park.
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Westminster City Council Equality Scheme
Age Group
Adults Children Older People Total
No in Deprivation (IMD Total Population (MYE % in Deprivation 2007 + DWP) 2005 – as used for ID)
20,375 11,196 6,842 38,413
169,300 29700 29,000 228,000
50% of the ‘deprived’ population live in just 5 wards, in descending order of numbers Westbourne, Queens’ Park, Harrow Road, Church Street and Churchill. Within those wards it is possible to identify still further pockets of the most intense deprivation.
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12.0% 37.7% 23.6% 16.8%
