Clayburg part1

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Live Trading Webinar June 15 - 18, 2010 TradeTheMarkets Dr. John F. Clayburg www.onlinesystemtrading.com

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Commodity Trading Advisor Disclosure: 



System trading data presented during the course of this presentation is the result of hypothetical backtesting and does not represent actual trades. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITIES CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. THE HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE THAT IS OFTEN OBTAINABLE IN COMMODITY TRADING CAN WORK AGAINST YOU AS WELL AS FOR YOU. THE USE OF LEVERAGE CAN LEAD TO LARGE LOSSES AS WELL AS GAINS. IN SOME CASES, MANAGED COMMODITY ACCOUNTS ARE SUBJECT TO SUBSTANTIAL CHARGES FOR MANAGEMENT AND ADVISORY FEES. IT MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THOSE ACCOUNTS THAT ARE SUBJECT TO THESE CHARGES TO MAKE SUBSTANTIAL TRADING PROFITS TO AVOID DEPLETION OR EXHAUSTION OF THEIR ASSETS. THE DISCLOSURE DOCUMENT CONTAINS A COMPLETE DESCRIPTION OF THE PRINCIPAL RISK FACTORS AND EACH FEE TO BE CHARGED TO YOUR ACCOUNT BY THE COMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR ("CTA"). THE REGULATIONS OF THE COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION ("CFTC") REQUIRE THAT PROSPECTIVE CLIENTS OF A CTA RECEIVE A DISCLOSURE DOCUMENT WHEN THEY ARE SOLICITED TO ENTER INTO AN AGREEMENT WHEREBY THE CTA WILL DIRECT OR GUIDE THE CLIENT'S COMMODITY INTEREST TRADING AND THAT CERTAIN RISK FACTORS BE HIGHLIGHTED. THESE DOCUMENTS ARE READILY ACCESSIBLE AT THE CTA’S WEBSITE. THE CTA IS REQUIRED TO PROVIDE OTHER DISCLOSURE STATEMENTS TO YOU BEFORE A COMMODITY ACCOUNT MAY BE OPENED FOR YOU.

2 "There is a risk of loss in trading. It is the nature of commodity and securities trading that where there is the opportunity for profit, there is also the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results".

Today's Presentation

The Four Step Trading Method and the Directional Day Filter

3 "There is a risk of loss in trading. It is the nature of commodity and securities trading that where there is the opportunity for profit, there is also the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results".

Today's Presentation

Trading in the direction of the major trend. Actual trading examples.

4 "There is a risk of loss in trading. It is the nature of commodity and securities trading that where there is the opportunity for profit, there is also the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results".

Today's Presentation Before we proceed…. Consider that when trading using technical analysis we are effectively attempting to mathematically predict human behavior.

5 "There is a risk of loss in trading. It is the nature of commodity and securities trading that where there is the opportunity for profit, there is also the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results".

Today's Presentation Remember that technical analysis is not a world of absolute certainty…. But a world of probabilities and possibilities

6 "There is a risk of loss in trading. It is the nature of commodity and securities trading that where there is the opportunity for profit, there is also the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results".

Today's Presentation

Current Live System Trades

7 "There is a risk of loss in trading. It is the nature of commodity and securities trading that where there is the opportunity for profit, there is also the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results".

The Four Step Trading Method Determine the Major Trend for the Day Define the Minor Trend within the Major Trend Identify a High Probability Entry Point Define Logical Stop Loss and Profit Taking Strategy

8 There is a risk of loss in trading. It is the nature of commodity and securities trading that where there is the opportunity for profit, there is also the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results".

Trend Definition Trend definition can be long term, medium term or short term. Depends on the trading style & objective of each individual or trading program. 9

Trend Definition Obvious Downtrend

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Trend Definition 100 day Moving Average Line

Uptrend

Simple Trend Definition Downtrend

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Trade Selection Identify minor trend exhaustion When the trend has been defined the entry point can be determined using a number of indicators Moving Average MACD CCI RSI 12

Trade Selection

18 period 9 period

2 Moving Average Lines

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MACD Moving Average Convergence / Divergence The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator calculates 2 exponential moving averages.

The difference between these 2 averages is then plotted as the MACD. 14

MACD

MACD MACD Average

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Buy – Sell on crossovers

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MACD

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Trend Definition

Trend is down Do not take trades against the major trend

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Commodity Channel Index Calculations are similar to Moving Averages Compares an average price to an average price x bars ago

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Commodity Channel Index

Buy – Sell on crossovers

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Trend Definition

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Trend Definition Second advantage of accurate trend definition: Do not take trades opposite of trend

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Trend Definition Do not take trades Opposite trend direction

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Trend Definition

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Trend Definition

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Trend Definition

Moving Average Line Defines Uptrend

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Trend Definition

5 Period RSI

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Trend Definition

RSI > 55 = Exit RSI < 25 = Buy Signal

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Trend Definition

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Trend Definition

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Trend Definition 5 Years

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Trend Definition

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Trend Definition

Zero Line Momentum > 0 = Uptrend

Momentum < 0 = Downtrend

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Trend Definition - Stochastic

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Trend Definition - Stochastic

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Trend Definition - RSI

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Trend Definition - RSI

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Directional Day Filter Used to Determine Major Trend of each Day Trend is Defined within 45 - 90 Minutes after the Open UpTrend Days - Only Take Buy Signals DownTrend Days - Only Take Sell Signals 75% Accuracy Rate 38 There is a risk of loss in trading. It is the nature of commodity and securities trading that where there is the opportunity for profit, there is also the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results".

Directional Day Filter Five Minutes after the Open, Calculate average of the Intraday Range Draw a Horizontal Line at this Point Will Use This Line as a Reference Point for the Rest of the Day

39 There is a risk of loss in trading. It is the nature of commodity and securities trading that where there is the opportunity for profit, there is also the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results".

Directional Day Filter

40 There is a risk of loss in trading. It is the nature of commodity and securities trading that where there is the opportunity for profit, there is also the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results".

Directional Day Filter

Directional Day Filter Line 41 There is a risk of loss in trading. It is the nature of commodity and securities trading that where there is the opportunity for profit, there is also the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results".

Directional Day Filter Sixty Minutes after the Open Draw a Vertical Line at this Point which defines the Intraday Range Time of this Determination will Vary with each Issue or Contract Traded

42 There is a risk of loss in trading. It is the nature of commodity and securities trading that where there is the opportunity for profit, there is also the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results".

Directional Day Filter

Directional Day Filter Line

Time Line

43 There is a risk of loss in trading. It is the nature of commodity and securities trading that where there is the opportunity for profit, there is also the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results".

Directional Day Filter Determine Amount of Market Activity Above and Below the Directional Day Filter Line prior to the Time Line

Subjective Observation

44 There is a risk of loss in trading. It is the nature of commodity and securities trading that where there is the opportunity for profit, there is also the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results".

Directional Day Filter

Directional Day Filter Line

Time Line

45 There is a risk of loss in trading. It is the nature of commodity and securities trading that where there is the opportunity for profit, there is also the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results".

Directional Day Filter If the Majority of Market Activity prior to the Time Line is above the Filter Line the Trend Bias for the Day is Higher

46 There is a risk of loss in trading. It is the nature of commodity and securities trading that where there is the opportunity for profit, there is also the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results".

Directional Day Filter If the Majority of Market Activity prior to the Time Line is Below the Filter Line the Trend Bias for the Day is Lower

47 There is a risk of loss in trading. It is the nature of commodity and securities trading that where there is the opportunity for profit, there is also the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results".

Directional Day Filter

If Activity is Equal then the Bias is for a Non - Trending Day

48 There is a risk of loss in trading. It is the nature of commodity and securities trading that where there is the opportunity for profit, there is also the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results".

Directional Day Filter

Close

Directional Day Filter Line

Time Line

49 There is a risk of loss in trading. It is the nature of commodity and securities trading that where there is the opportunity for profit, there is also the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results".

Directional Day Filter Does NOT consider gaps in trend definition. Does NOT consider volume in trend definition.

50 There is a risk of loss in trading. It is the nature of commodity and securities trading that where there is the opportunity for profit, there is also the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results".

Directional Day Filter: UpTrend

Close

Time Line Directional Day Filter Line 51

Directional Day Filter: UpTrend

UpTrend Buy Pull Backs Close

Time Line Directional Day Filter Line 52

Directional Day Filter: Downtrend Time Line Close

Directional Day Filter Line

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Directional Day Filter: Downtrend Time Line Close

Directional Day Filter Line Downtrend

Sell Rallies

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Directional Day Filter: Sideways

Close Time Line

Directional Day Filter Line

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Directional Day Filter: Sideways

Close Time Line

Directional Day Filter Line

Sideways Day - Sell Rallies, Buy Dips

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Directional Day Filter Research Results Extensive research shows that the Directional Day Filter is 75% accurate in determining the direction of the daily trend

57 There is a risk of loss in trading. It is the nature of commodity and securities trading that where there is the opportunity for profit, there is also the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results".

Directional Day Filter Research Results

REPEAT: 75%

58 There is a risk of loss in trading. It is the nature of commodity and securities trading that where there is the opportunity for profit, there is also the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results".

Directional Day Filter Research Results REMEMBER 75 = 100

59 There is a risk of loss in trading. It is the nature of commodity and securities trading that where there is the opportunity for profit, there is also the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results".

Directional Day Filter Evaluation Process Theory tested against data base of 80 stock issues for a two year period Test period – January 1999 through January 2001 Tested for the specific time at which the high or low of the day was established Tested time frames from 5 to 390 minutes after open 60 There is a risk of loss in trading. It is the nature of commodity and securities trading that where there is the opportunity for profit, there is also the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results".

Directional Day Filter Testing Results

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Directional Day Filter Composite Graph 65 Minutes = 75.28%

100 Minutes = 74.90 %

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Directional Day Filter Support and Resistance 





Directional Day Filter line will often provide significant support or resistance Market will frequently retest this line before resuming the major trend Most often seen in Treasury Bond Futures 63 There is a risk of loss in trading. It is the nature of commodity and securities trading that where there is the opportunity for profit, there is also the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results".

Directional Day Filter Support and Resistance

Note Resistance at DDF Line

Down Day

64 There is a risk of loss in trading. It is the nature of commodity and securities trading that where there is the opportunity for profit, there is also the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results".

Directional Day Filter Support and Resistance Uptrend

Uptrend Resumes

Support at DDF Line

65 There is a risk of loss in trading. It is the nature of commodity and securities trading that where there is the opportunity for profit, there is also the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results".

Directional Day Filter Automated Version Directional Day Filter has been automated for use in trading systems The automated version of the indicator signals the dominant trend with color changes 66 There is a risk of loss in trading. It is the nature of commodity and securities trading that where there is the opportunity for profit, there is also the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results".

Directional Day Filter Automated Sell Signal

67 There is a risk of loss in trading. It is the nature of commodity and securities trading that where there is the opportunity for profit, there is also the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results".

Directional Day Filter Automated Sell Signal

68 There is a risk of loss in trading. It is the nature of commodity and securities trading that where there is the opportunity for profit, there is also the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results".

Directional Day Filter Automated Buy Signal

69 There is a risk of loss in trading. It is the nature of commodity and securities trading that where there is the opportunity for profit, there is also the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results".

Directional Day Filter Automated Buy Signal

70 There is a risk of loss in trading. It is the nature of commodity and securities trading that where there is the opportunity for profit, there is also the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results".