Climate Change and Health
Climate Change and Health Public Health Law Conference Public Health Law Implications of Climate Change Jason Vargo [email protected] @_vargo
Washington DC September 15, 2016
Greenhouse Effect
Greenhouse Gases
Solar Radiation Infra-red Radiation Earth
3
CO2 Trend: past 800,000 years
CO2 Trend: past 800,000 years X
Total Emissions
Global Temperature Anomalies since 1880
Weather vs. Climate
A Warming Climate. . .How do we know? Rising Sea Levels
Earlier Leaf-out
Shorter Lake Ice Duration
Coral Bleaching
The Melting of the Arctic: Loss of Permafrost
“Drunken Forest”
Mysterious Siberian Sinkhole (July 2014)
The Scouring of the Arctic: Coastal Erosion Effect of a Storm on Coastline
Before. . .
. . .Two Hours Later
Native village of Shishmaref, Alaska
Less Sea Ice Bigger Waves Thawing Permafrost Slumping Stronger Storms Bigger Waves
More Coastal Erosion
Extreme Weather Events
Summer 2012 drought, $20B
June 2008 Midwest floods
Spring 2012 “false spring”
July 1995 Chicago heat wave
Total Emissions
The Lancet Commissions: Health and climate change: policy responses to protect public health
Where do we emit?
The Lancet Commissions: Health and climate change: policy responses to protect public health
The Lancet Commissions: Health and climate change: policy responses to protect public health
Balbus, J., A. Crimmins, J.L. Gamble, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, S. Saha, and M.C. Sarofim, 2016: Ch. 1: Introduction: Climate Change and Human Health. The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, 25–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.7930/J0VX0DFW
McGeehin, Michael A., and Maria Mirabelli. "The potential impacts of climate variability and change on temperature-related morbidity and mortality in the United States." Environmental Health Perspectives 109, no. Suppl 2 (2001): 185.
McGeehin, Michael A., and Maria Mirabelli. "The potential impacts of climate variability and change on temperature-related morbidity and mortality in the United States." Environmental Health Perspectives 109, no. Suppl 2 (2001): 185.
McGeehin, Michael A., and Maria Mirabelli. "The potential impacts of climate variability and change on temperature-related morbidity and mortality in the United States." Environmental Health Perspectives 109, no. Suppl 2 (2001): 185.
Extreme Events
Extreme Heat and Excess Mortality
Extreme Heat and Excess Mortality
McMichael, A. J., Woodruff, R. E., & Hales, S. (2006). Climate change and human health: present and future risks. The Lancet, 367(9513), 859-869.
Heavy precipitation has increased in recent decades over all of the continental U. S., especially in the North and Northeast.
April 17-18, 2013 5.5 inches of rain in Chicago
In Future, when it rains…it will pour.
By 2050, Chicago could see >100% increase in “Combined Sewage Overflow” (CSO) events (Patz et al. 2008)
Globally Averaged
U.S. CCSP, 2008
Local Legalities of Climate Change Chicago Tribune
Brikowski, Tom H., Yair Lotan, and Margaret S. Pearle. "Climate-related increase in the prevalence of urolithiasis in the United States." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105, no. 28 (2008): 9841-9846.
Climate Suitability Map of Malaria Baseline year, 2000, Zimbabwe
Ebi et al. 2005
Climate Suitability for Malaria Year 2050, Zimbabwe
Ebi et al. 2005
Cator, Lauren J., et al. "Characterizing microclimate in urban malaria transmission settings: a case study from Chennai, India." Malar J 12.10 (2013): 10-1186.
Mental Health physical health
mental health Li, Bo, Steve Sain, Linda O. Mearns, Henry A. Anderson, Sari Kovats, Kristie L. Ebi, Marni YV Bekkedal, Marty S. Kanarek, and Jonathan A. Patz. "The impact of extreme heat on morbidity in Milwaukee, Wisconsin."Climatic change 110, no. 3-4 (2012): 959-976.
Patz, J. A., Gibbs, H. K., Foley, J. A., Rogers, J. V., & Smith, K. R. (2007). Climate change and global health: quantifying a growing ethical crisis. EcoHealth, 4(4), 397-405.
“The rich will find their world to be more expensive, inconvenient, uncomfortable, disrupted and colorless — in general, more unpleasant and unpredictable, perhaps greatly so. The poor will die.” - Kirk Smith
Summary: What we know Earth’s climate is warming Greenhouse gas concentrations are increasing CO2 more abundant now than in over hundreds of thousands of years The Arctic is especially responsive to climate change Climate is always changing (naturally), but humans can also alter it
Summary: What we think we know The global warming trend will continue throughout this century Warmest climate in millions of years Arctic sea ice will no longer be permanent The Chicago area will become wetter in most seasons More heat waves and flooding rains
Summary: What we don’t know How much of recent warming has been natural vs. anthropogenic Whether future climate changes will be gradual or abrupt The regional details of climate change (e.g., the U. S. Midwest) The net impact of desirable and undesirable changes How much Arctic climate change will affect weather elsewhere
Societal Responses to Climate Change Experiment Business-as-usual “Mitigation” (reduce carbon emissions or sequester them) “Adaptation” (e.g., heat wave action plans, infrastructure upgrades) Legislation (carbon tax, cap-and-trade) Technological advancements
Climate Change and Health Public Health Law Conference Public Health Law Implications of Climate Change Jason Vargo [email protected] @_vargo
Washington DC September 15, 2016
Washington DC September 15, 2016
Greenhouse Effect
Greenhouse Gases
Solar Radiation Infra-red Radiation Earth
3
CO2 Trend: past 800,000 years
CO2 Trend: past 800,000 years X
Total Emissions
Global Temperature Anomalies since 1880
Weather vs. Climate
A Warming Climate. . .How do we know? Rising Sea Levels
Earlier Leaf-out
Shorter Lake Ice Duration
Coral Bleaching
The Melting of the Arctic: Loss of Permafrost
“Drunken Forest”
Mysterious Siberian Sinkhole (July 2014)
The Scouring of the Arctic: Coastal Erosion Effect of a Storm on Coastline
Before. . .
. . .Two Hours Later
Native village of Shishmaref, Alaska
Less Sea Ice Bigger Waves Thawing Permafrost Slumping Stronger Storms Bigger Waves
More Coastal Erosion
Extreme Weather Events
Summer 2012 drought, $20B
June 2008 Midwest floods
Spring 2012 “false spring”
July 1995 Chicago heat wave
Total Emissions
The Lancet Commissions: Health and climate change: policy responses to protect public health
Where do we emit?
The Lancet Commissions: Health and climate change: policy responses to protect public health
The Lancet Commissions: Health and climate change: policy responses to protect public health
Balbus, J., A. Crimmins, J.L. Gamble, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, S. Saha, and M.C. Sarofim, 2016: Ch. 1: Introduction: Climate Change and Human Health. The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, 25–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.7930/J0VX0DFW
McGeehin, Michael A., and Maria Mirabelli. "The potential impacts of climate variability and change on temperature-related morbidity and mortality in the United States." Environmental Health Perspectives 109, no. Suppl 2 (2001): 185.
McGeehin, Michael A., and Maria Mirabelli. "The potential impacts of climate variability and change on temperature-related morbidity and mortality in the United States." Environmental Health Perspectives 109, no. Suppl 2 (2001): 185.
McGeehin, Michael A., and Maria Mirabelli. "The potential impacts of climate variability and change on temperature-related morbidity and mortality in the United States." Environmental Health Perspectives 109, no. Suppl 2 (2001): 185.
Extreme Events
Extreme Heat and Excess Mortality
Extreme Heat and Excess Mortality
McMichael, A. J., Woodruff, R. E., & Hales, S. (2006). Climate change and human health: present and future risks. The Lancet, 367(9513), 859-869.
Heavy precipitation has increased in recent decades over all of the continental U. S., especially in the North and Northeast.
April 17-18, 2013 5.5 inches of rain in Chicago
In Future, when it rains…it will pour.
By 2050, Chicago could see >100% increase in “Combined Sewage Overflow” (CSO) events (Patz et al. 2008)
Globally Averaged
U.S. CCSP, 2008
Local Legalities of Climate Change Chicago Tribune
Brikowski, Tom H., Yair Lotan, and Margaret S. Pearle. "Climate-related increase in the prevalence of urolithiasis in the United States." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105, no. 28 (2008): 9841-9846.
Climate Suitability Map of Malaria Baseline year, 2000, Zimbabwe
Ebi et al. 2005
Climate Suitability for Malaria Year 2050, Zimbabwe
Ebi et al. 2005
Cator, Lauren J., et al. "Characterizing microclimate in urban malaria transmission settings: a case study from Chennai, India." Malar J 12.10 (2013): 10-1186.
Mental Health physical health
mental health Li, Bo, Steve Sain, Linda O. Mearns, Henry A. Anderson, Sari Kovats, Kristie L. Ebi, Marni YV Bekkedal, Marty S. Kanarek, and Jonathan A. Patz. "The impact of extreme heat on morbidity in Milwaukee, Wisconsin."Climatic change 110, no. 3-4 (2012): 959-976.
Patz, J. A., Gibbs, H. K., Foley, J. A., Rogers, J. V., & Smith, K. R. (2007). Climate change and global health: quantifying a growing ethical crisis. EcoHealth, 4(4), 397-405.
“The rich will find their world to be more expensive, inconvenient, uncomfortable, disrupted and colorless — in general, more unpleasant and unpredictable, perhaps greatly so. The poor will die.” - Kirk Smith
Summary: What we know Earth’s climate is warming Greenhouse gas concentrations are increasing CO2 more abundant now than in over hundreds of thousands of years The Arctic is especially responsive to climate change Climate is always changing (naturally), but humans can also alter it
Summary: What we think we know The global warming trend will continue throughout this century Warmest climate in millions of years Arctic sea ice will no longer be permanent The Chicago area will become wetter in most seasons More heat waves and flooding rains
Summary: What we don’t know How much of recent warming has been natural vs. anthropogenic Whether future climate changes will be gradual or abrupt The regional details of climate change (e.g., the U. S. Midwest) The net impact of desirable and undesirable changes How much Arctic climate change will affect weather elsewhere
Societal Responses to Climate Change Experiment Business-as-usual “Mitigation” (reduce carbon emissions or sequester them) “Adaptation” (e.g., heat wave action plans, infrastructure upgrades) Legislation (carbon tax, cap-and-trade) Technological advancements
Climate Change and Health Public Health Law Conference Public Health Law Implications of Climate Change Jason Vargo [email protected] @_vargo
Washington DC September 15, 2016
