Climate Change Markets
Climate Change Markets Grant Ferrier, Editor-In-Chief, Climate Change Business Journal EBC Industry Summit on the Business of the Environment – Energy – Climate Change - Identifying the Business Opportunities November 7, 2008
About Climate Change Business Journal
Climate Change Business Journal® (CCBJ) newsletter is a new business publication which provides high-value, strategic business intelligence on the Climate Change Industry. In each edition we present thorough analysis of a specific segment or business issue; profile emerging opportunities, growth trends and leading players; estimate market size; track financial performance and M&A activity; and present primary data based on proprietary surveys of the Climate Change Industry.
Our publication is primarily for companies with technology, services and investments in: – – – – – – – – –
Low Carbon Power & Renewable Energy Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS) Energy Storage: Equipment & Systems Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Green Building Transportation Carbon Markets: Trading & Projects Climate Change Adaptation Consulting & Research
Climate Change Industry Segments Low-Carbon Power
Renewable & Conventional Equipment & Power Sales; Project Design & Development
Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS)
Systems, Equipment and Operations
Energy Efficiency & Demand Response
Systems, Equipment & Appliances; Audits & Studies
Energy Storage
Equipment & Systems
Green Buildings
Design & Development; Building Materials & Supply
Transportation
Vehicles, Fuels & Systems
Carbon Markets
Credit & Offset Trading; and Project Development, Verification and Registration
Adaptation
Risk Assessment, Planning, Engineering & Construction
Services
Consulting & Engineering; Research
SOURCE: Climate Change Buisness Journal; Environmental Business International, Inc., San Diego, Calif.
Carbon Markets
Global CO2 Emissions (metric tons of CO2) Residential, Services, Ag, Govt 13%
Other 8% Power Generation 41%
Transport 20%
Industry 18% Source: International Energy Agency
Total Greenhouse Gas Emissions (Mt CO2e) Africa Latin America 3% 4% Asia 10%
United Kingdom 2%
China 19% Non-OECD Europe 1% Former USSR 9%
United States 22%
Other OECD 25%
Middle East 5%
Source: International Energy Agency
Global Carbon Markets ($Mil) 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Regulated Market
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Voluntary Market
World Bank: Global Carbon Markets, 2006-2007 2006 Allowances EU ETS
Volume
2007 Value
Volume
Value
1,104
24,436
2,061
50,097
New South Wales
20
225
25
224
Chicago Climate Ex.
10
38
23
72
UK-ETS
Na
Na
1,134
24,699
2,109
50,394
Sub-total
2006 Project Based Transactions Primary CDM
Volume
2007 Value
Volume
Value
537
5,804
551
7,426
Secondary CDM
25
445
240
5,451
JI (Joint Implementation)
16
141
41
499
Other
33
146
42
265
611
6,536
874
13,641
1,745
31,235
2,983
64,035
Sub-total Total
In million metric tons of CO2 equivalent (MtCO2e); † in millions of U.S. dollars. Source: World Bank, “State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2008”
CDM Projects, 2006 Market by Class Project Type
Share
2006 Trend
HFC destruction
34%
cresting
N2O destruction
13%
peaking
Energy efficiency & fuel switching
9%
increasing
Coal Mine Methane
7%
increasing
Hydroelectric
6%
rising mkt share*
Landfill Gas
5%
falling mkt share*
Wind
5%
rising mkt share*
Biomass
3%
rising mkt share*
Animal Waste
2%
rising mkt share*
Other renewables
2%
rising mkt share*
Agro-forestry
25,000
2005-2014
VER
Energy Efficiency
California/US
12,000
2005-2012
VER
Wind Farm
India
50,000
2001-2007
VER
Hydro
Guatemala
>15,000
2004-2012
VER
Wind
Canada
10,000
2007
VER
Methane Flare
South Africa
70,000
2007-2012
VER
Efficient Stoves
Eritrea
>5,000
2005-2008
VER
Fuel Switch
South Africa
10,000
2007-Forward
VER
Sustainable Forestry
Portugal
>35,000
2004-Forward
VER
Wind Power
Turkey
>70,000
2006-2013
Source: CantorCO2e. Representative of the projects that can be secured through CantorCO2e. TPY: Tonnes per year of CO2 equivalent; VER; Verified Emission Reduction or Voluntary Emission Reduction.
Climate Change Consulting: Sample Service Offerings GHG
strategy and policy development (leading to legislative initiatives)
Scientific,
technical & communications support for science-oriented agencies & organizations (ecosystem impacts modeling & assessment, community outreach, volunteer partnership support, etc.) GHG
emissions inventory preparation
Carbon GHG
risk/exposure analysis and trategy development (regulated and non-regulated entities)
mitigation strategy development
Carbon
market modeling and analysis
Carbon
life-cycle analysis and management
Carbon
management software development (emissions management systems, carbon pricing tools,
etc.) Project
development for offset or credit generation (document preparation, offset/credit quality analysis, etc.)
Project
design and engineering (CCS, renewables, energy efficiency, etc.)
Credit/offset
verification
Development
of CDM methodologies for assessing emissions reductions
Solar Energy Industry
Global Solar Energy Industry ($Bil) Project Type
Share
Photovoltaic Systems & Manufacturing
13.40
Concentrated Solar Power Systems
0.30
Solar Hot Water Systems
2.80
Systems & Equipment
16.50
PV Electricity Value
3.63
CSP Electricity Value
0.14
SHW Power Value
2.81
Power Value
6.57
Total Solar Industry
23.07
Source: Climate Change Business Journal, EBI Inc., estimates derived from a variety of sources
Global Solar Energy Industry 1999-2014 ($Bil) 80 70 60
SHW Power Value CSP Electricity Value
50
PV Electricity Value Solar Hot Water Systems
40
Concentrated Solar Power Systems
30
Photovoltaic Systems & Mfg
20 10 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: Climate Change Business Journal, EBI Inc., estimates derived from a variety of sources
Grid-Tied PV by State in 2007 2007 MWdc California
87.1
New Jersey
16.4
Nevada
14.6
Colorado
12.4
New York
4.4
Hawaii
2.4
Arizona
2.1
Connecticut
1.8
Massachusetts
1.4
Oregon
1.1
Source: SEIA, Prometheus Institute
Planned Concentrated Solar Power Plants in Two Leading Markets: 2007-2012 US: 2012 Total: 2,855 MW
Spain: 2012 Total: 2,570 MW
1,200
Central Receiver
1,000
Parabolic Trough
800
Dish Engine
600
Linear Fresnel
400
ISCC
MW
MW
1,400
200 0 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
Central Receiver Parabolic Trough Linear Fresnel
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: Emerging Energy Research, ISCC is Integrated Solar Combined Cycle
2011
2012
Carbon Capture & Storage
Profile of Worldwide Large Stationary CO2 Sources Process
Number of Sources
Emissions (MtCO2)
Fossil Fuels Power
4,942
10,539
Cement Production
1,175
932
Refineries
638
798
Iron and steel industry
269
646
Petrochemical industry
470
379
Oil and gas processing
n/a
50
Other sources
90
33
303
91
Bioethanol and bionenergy
Source: U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Special Report of Carbon Capture and Storage, Sources with emissions of more than 0.1 million tonnes of CO2 (MtCO2) per year.
Percentage of U.S. electricity generation from coal in 2050 >70%
0% 6%
60-70%
10%
55-60%
16%
50-55%
12%
45-50%
8%
40-45%
12%
35-40%
14%
30-35%
16%
20-30%
6%
10-20%
About Climate Change Business Journal
Climate Change Business Journal® (CCBJ) newsletter is a new business publication which provides high-value, strategic business intelligence on the Climate Change Industry. In each edition we present thorough analysis of a specific segment or business issue; profile emerging opportunities, growth trends and leading players; estimate market size; track financial performance and M&A activity; and present primary data based on proprietary surveys of the Climate Change Industry.
Our publication is primarily for companies with technology, services and investments in: – – – – – – – – –
Low Carbon Power & Renewable Energy Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS) Energy Storage: Equipment & Systems Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Green Building Transportation Carbon Markets: Trading & Projects Climate Change Adaptation Consulting & Research
Climate Change Industry Segments Low-Carbon Power
Renewable & Conventional Equipment & Power Sales; Project Design & Development
Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS)
Systems, Equipment and Operations
Energy Efficiency & Demand Response
Systems, Equipment & Appliances; Audits & Studies
Energy Storage
Equipment & Systems
Green Buildings
Design & Development; Building Materials & Supply
Transportation
Vehicles, Fuels & Systems
Carbon Markets
Credit & Offset Trading; and Project Development, Verification and Registration
Adaptation
Risk Assessment, Planning, Engineering & Construction
Services
Consulting & Engineering; Research
SOURCE: Climate Change Buisness Journal; Environmental Business International, Inc., San Diego, Calif.
Carbon Markets
Global CO2 Emissions (metric tons of CO2) Residential, Services, Ag, Govt 13%
Other 8% Power Generation 41%
Transport 20%
Industry 18% Source: International Energy Agency
Total Greenhouse Gas Emissions (Mt CO2e) Africa Latin America 3% 4% Asia 10%
United Kingdom 2%
China 19% Non-OECD Europe 1% Former USSR 9%
United States 22%
Other OECD 25%
Middle East 5%
Source: International Energy Agency
Global Carbon Markets ($Mil) 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Regulated Market
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Voluntary Market
World Bank: Global Carbon Markets, 2006-2007 2006 Allowances EU ETS
Volume
2007 Value
Volume
Value
1,104
24,436
2,061
50,097
New South Wales
20
225
25
224
Chicago Climate Ex.
10
38
23
72
UK-ETS
Na
Na
1,134
24,699
2,109
50,394
Sub-total
2006 Project Based Transactions Primary CDM
Volume
2007 Value
Volume
Value
537
5,804
551
7,426
Secondary CDM
25
445
240
5,451
JI (Joint Implementation)
16
141
41
499
Other
33
146
42
265
611
6,536
874
13,641
1,745
31,235
2,983
64,035
Sub-total Total
In million metric tons of CO2 equivalent (MtCO2e); † in millions of U.S. dollars. Source: World Bank, “State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2008”
CDM Projects, 2006 Market by Class Project Type
Share
2006 Trend
HFC destruction
34%
cresting
N2O destruction
13%
peaking
Energy efficiency & fuel switching
9%
increasing
Coal Mine Methane
7%
increasing
Hydroelectric
6%
rising mkt share*
Landfill Gas
5%
falling mkt share*
Wind
5%
rising mkt share*
Biomass
3%
rising mkt share*
Animal Waste
2%
rising mkt share*
Other renewables
2%
rising mkt share*
Agro-forestry
25,000
2005-2014
VER
Energy Efficiency
California/US
12,000
2005-2012
VER
Wind Farm
India
50,000
2001-2007
VER
Hydro
Guatemala
>15,000
2004-2012
VER
Wind
Canada
10,000
2007
VER
Methane Flare
South Africa
70,000
2007-2012
VER
Efficient Stoves
Eritrea
>5,000
2005-2008
VER
Fuel Switch
South Africa
10,000
2007-Forward
VER
Sustainable Forestry
Portugal
>35,000
2004-Forward
VER
Wind Power
Turkey
>70,000
2006-2013
Source: CantorCO2e. Representative of the projects that can be secured through CantorCO2e. TPY: Tonnes per year of CO2 equivalent; VER; Verified Emission Reduction or Voluntary Emission Reduction.
Climate Change Consulting: Sample Service Offerings GHG
strategy and policy development (leading to legislative initiatives)
Scientific,
technical & communications support for science-oriented agencies & organizations (ecosystem impacts modeling & assessment, community outreach, volunteer partnership support, etc.) GHG
emissions inventory preparation
Carbon GHG
risk/exposure analysis and trategy development (regulated and non-regulated entities)
mitigation strategy development
Carbon
market modeling and analysis
Carbon
life-cycle analysis and management
Carbon
management software development (emissions management systems, carbon pricing tools,
etc.) Project
development for offset or credit generation (document preparation, offset/credit quality analysis, etc.)
Project
design and engineering (CCS, renewables, energy efficiency, etc.)
Credit/offset
verification
Development
of CDM methodologies for assessing emissions reductions
Solar Energy Industry
Global Solar Energy Industry ($Bil) Project Type
Share
Photovoltaic Systems & Manufacturing
13.40
Concentrated Solar Power Systems
0.30
Solar Hot Water Systems
2.80
Systems & Equipment
16.50
PV Electricity Value
3.63
CSP Electricity Value
0.14
SHW Power Value
2.81
Power Value
6.57
Total Solar Industry
23.07
Source: Climate Change Business Journal, EBI Inc., estimates derived from a variety of sources
Global Solar Energy Industry 1999-2014 ($Bil) 80 70 60
SHW Power Value CSP Electricity Value
50
PV Electricity Value Solar Hot Water Systems
40
Concentrated Solar Power Systems
30
Photovoltaic Systems & Mfg
20 10 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: Climate Change Business Journal, EBI Inc., estimates derived from a variety of sources
Grid-Tied PV by State in 2007 2007 MWdc California
87.1
New Jersey
16.4
Nevada
14.6
Colorado
12.4
New York
4.4
Hawaii
2.4
Arizona
2.1
Connecticut
1.8
Massachusetts
1.4
Oregon
1.1
Source: SEIA, Prometheus Institute
Planned Concentrated Solar Power Plants in Two Leading Markets: 2007-2012 US: 2012 Total: 2,855 MW
Spain: 2012 Total: 2,570 MW
1,200
Central Receiver
1,000
Parabolic Trough
800
Dish Engine
600
Linear Fresnel
400
ISCC
MW
MW
1,400
200 0 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
Central Receiver Parabolic Trough Linear Fresnel
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: Emerging Energy Research, ISCC is Integrated Solar Combined Cycle
2011
2012
Carbon Capture & Storage
Profile of Worldwide Large Stationary CO2 Sources Process
Number of Sources
Emissions (MtCO2)
Fossil Fuels Power
4,942
10,539
Cement Production
1,175
932
Refineries
638
798
Iron and steel industry
269
646
Petrochemical industry
470
379
Oil and gas processing
n/a
50
Other sources
90
33
303
91
Bioethanol and bionenergy
Source: U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Special Report of Carbon Capture and Storage, Sources with emissions of more than 0.1 million tonnes of CO2 (MtCO2) per year.
Percentage of U.S. electricity generation from coal in 2050 >70%
0% 6%
60-70%
10%
55-60%
16%
50-55%
12%
45-50%
8%
40-45%
12%
35-40%
14%
30-35%
16%
20-30%
6%
10-20%
