clipping – negociações internacionais

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19.04.2018

CLIPPING INTERNACIONAL NEGINT Brasília, 19 de abril de 2018

Índice I. OMC _______________________________________________ 2 Russia demands compensation at WTO for U.S. steel tariffs ______________ 2 India seeks compensation for U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs at WTO ______ 2 II. NEGOCIAÇÕES REGIONAIS E BILATERAIS _________________ 3 Donald Trump's double threat to global free trade ______________________ 3 NZ, UK prime ministers talk free trade agreement ______________________ 5 European Union, Singapore a step closer to signing free trade agreement ___ 6 III. OUTROS ____________________________________________ 7 Brazil’s weaker currency suggests fading of carry trade appeal ____________ 7 Brazil lifts self-imposed embargo of certain BRF plants __________________ 9 Mexico freezes government business with Brazil's Odebrecht for 2.5 yrs _____ 9

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I. OMC Russia demands compensation at WTO for U.S. steel tariffs The Globe and Mail (Canadá) Russia is demanding compensation from the United States for its decision to impose worldwide tariffs on steel and aluminum, a Russian statement published by the World Trade Organization showed on Thursday. The United States maintains that the tariffs are based on national security concerns and fall outside the remit of the WTO rules, but Russia, China, India and the European Union have all objected, saying the tariffs appear to be “safeguards,” which require compensation for major exporting countries. The United States has agreed to negotiate with China and has told India and the EU that it is open to “discuss this or any other issue,” while insisting that their claims for compensation are unjustified.

India seeks compensation for U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs at WTO Reuters (Reino Unido) India has followed the European Union and China by demanding compensation from the United States at the World Trade Organization for U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs, documents filed to the WTO showed on Tuesday. Like the EU and China, India said it regarded the U.S. tariffs as “safeguards” under the WTO rules, entitling it to ask for compensation for loss of steel and aluminum exports to the United States.

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II. NEGOCIAÇÕES REGIONAIS E BILATERAIS Donald Trump's double threat to global free trade BBC (Reino Unido) Here the world's nations meet to hammer out trade deals and reduce tariffs - taxes charged on imported goods. But the system, which has been working in various guises since the 1940s, is under threat from two sides. The USA has announced tariffs on imports of foreign steel and aluminium on the grounds of national security, and it is refusing to appoint new members to the WTO's appellate body that settles disputes. These developments come as the WTO is of increasing importance to the UK. At the moment it is represented by the EU, but after Brexit the UK will negotiate on its own account. This should give the UK the ability to negotiate deals more specifically designed to suit it. The downside is that the UK will no longer belong to the biggest single trading economy in the world - the EU. Brexit consequences The first job of the newly increased UK team at the WTO will be to negotiate a "schedule", an extensive list of goods, and the tariffs to be paid on them; ranging from avocados to zips. The UK assumed it could just inherit the EU's schedule. The trouble is that this requires the consent of other countries, and some of them have said no. Take New Zealand, for instance. At the moment it can sell 228,000 tonnes of lamb and mutton to the EU every year, with no tariffs. The UK and the EU decided to split that quota between them, but New Zealand objected. David Walker, is New Zealand's ambassador to the WTO: "Yes, we and a range of other WTO members made clear that a simple quota split like that is not acceptable to us."

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The reason is simple. At the moment New Zealand can sell that lamb anywhere in the EU, so it loses flexibility if it has to sell some in the UK and the rest of the EU. The UK can probably get round such problems, by offering countries like New Zealand a better deal. But there are other clouds on the horizon. For a start, the WTO hasn't managed to negotiate a global cut in tariffs for decades for one simple reason - every single country has a veto. Ieva Barsauskaite, from the Lithuanian delegation to the WTO, warns me that getting all 164 countries on board is not easy. "Get 164 friends of yours to one place, decide on a dinner, decide on one dish for all, and include the single mothers, the teenagers, retired veterans and everyone with a dog, and people with allergies - that's how the trade deals are being made here," she says. For the UK, which is hoping to breathe new life into the WTO, that is not very encouraging. But there are bigger problems. Trade war threat Donald Trump's decision to impose tariffs on steel and aluminium is a game changer, not because this hasn't been done before - it has. But because he has done so on "national security" grounds - the one WTO rule that cannot be challenged. All countries can take actions to guarantee their national security, but are only expected to do so at times of real crisis, like a real war. But now in peacetime, President Trump has cited national security as a reason for tariffs. If others follow suit the escalation could be impossible to stop or reverse. No wonder that Roberto Azevedo, the WTO's director-general, is worried: "Just the threat of a trade war is already damaging," he told the BBC. "But if this escalation goes on, and on, and on, you may have something very, very damaging - even the possibility of a recession. And if you look back in history, you know, in the 1930s, that's exactly where it led. "That is why I have been saying, 'stick to the rules, do things according to the rules', because if others don't like it, there are mechanisms to take care of that," he says. 4

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No appeal court But those mechanisms themselves are also now under threat. The WTO's appellate body has been solving problems for more than 20 years, and its decisions have to be accepted by all members of the WTO. There is no veto. But the appellate body is rapidly running out of members, as the US is blocking new appointments in an argument over their role. It needs a bare minimum of three members, though six or seven would be much better - at the moment it has just four. "For over a year, it's not been possible to get a consensus amongst members to initiate the process for filling vacancies," says the WTO's director of legal affairs, John Adank. "So, if this impasse continues, the risk is that the appellate body won't be in a position to function, because if it gets down to three or fewer members, it could be difficult to hear appeals." The tranquil setting of the WTO, with its well-oiled collegiate atmosphere, has a comforting and comfortable feel to it, but it was based on a post-war consensus that has lasted ever since 1945. President Trump has helped destroy that consensus - that there is a contract that everyone agrees to - with a few tweets and the threat of a trade war; putting the future purpose of the WTO in its castle on the shores of Lake Geneva in serious doubt.

NZ, UK prime ministers talk free trade agreement Maori Television (Nova Zelândia) New Zealand Prime Minster Jacinda Ardern and British Prime Minister Theresa May met in London today to discuss ways to strengthen ties between the two countries. During the meeting in London, they discussed a range of foreign policy, economic and defence issues.

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They also confirmed their commitment to working on a free trade agreement between the two countries. During her time in London, Ardern also found time to meet Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau and London mayor Sadiq Khan. She will reportedly meet the Queen this evening. Ardern says the New Zealand and British governments will further discuss the potential free trade agreement following UK's departure from the European Union.

European Union, Singapore a step closer to signing free trade agreement Maori Television (Nova Zelândia) IN the first step towards signing and concluding the European Union-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (EUSFTA), the European Commission has presented the outcome of the negotiations to the European Council. The initialled agreement now needs to be approved by the Council of Ministers and ratified by the European Parliament. The aim is for the EUSFTA to come into force before the European Commission's mandate ends in 2019, said the EU delegation to Singapore in a statement on Thursday. European Union Ambassador to Singapore Barbara Plinkert said that as the first deal between the EU and a South-east Asian economy, the EUSFTA is a stepping stone towards greater engagement between the regions, she added. Over 10,000 EU companies have a presence in Singapore, with Singapore also being the top South-east Asian destination for European investments. Negotiations for the EUSFTA began in 2009 and concluded in 2014. Besides liberalising tariffs, reducing non-tariff trade barriers and promoting services and investment, the EUSFTA will also give improved access to government procurement opportunities.

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III. OUTROS Brazil’s weaker currency suggests fading of carry trade appeal Financial Times (Estados Unidos) When Brazil’s populist former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was jailed for corruption this month, markets were expected to cheer the end of the leftist leader`s comeback hopes in elections this year. But

instead

of

rallying,

Brazil’s

currency,

the

real,

headed

in

the opposite

direction, breaking out of its previous range of R$3.20 to R$3.30 to the dollar and touching some of its weakest levels since 2016 of above R$3.40. While politics was the catalyst for the sudden slide, the weakening of the real has been coming for some time as part of what UBS is calling the “Great Unwind” — a mixture of the end of a carry trade in the currency combined with the liquidation by the central bank of billions of dollars of swaps that were used by investors for hedging.

“The theme of a weak real is getting a lot of attention now because we broke out of that range, but the truth of the matter is it’s been kind of weak for quite some time,” said Tony Volpon, economist with UBS. Brazil has been among the best-performing emerging markets over the past year, led by equities but with a relatively stable real providing a backstop. The stock and currency markets languished in 2015 under Mr Lula da Silva’s anointed successor, former president Dilma Rousseff, before surging on her impeachment and replacement with her more business-friendly vice-president Michel Temer in 2016. Mr Temer’s economic team pushed consumer price rises down to two-decade lows with inflation at 2.68 per cent by end-March against a year earlier. This has allowed for record-low interest rates. The Ibovespa, the benchmark equities index, has more than doubled from its lows in January 2016, over the past year alone returning 30.7 per cent. The real, after reaching

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levels of more than R$4 to the dollar during the Rousseff years, was trading at R$3.20 to R$3.30 for much of the past year before its sudden depreciation in the past two weeks. Mr Volpon argues that the outperformance of the Ibovespa compared with the real suggests that factors other than economic fundamentals are behind the currency’s weakness. The most obvious is the central bank’s longer than expected easing cycle with short and long-term bond yields in Brazil falling steadily compared with the US. Brazil’s central bank has cut the benchmark Selic rate from 14.25 per cent in October 2016 to 6.5 per cent in March. Another cut is expected at the next meeting in mid-May This comes as the US is tightening monetary policy, further reducing the attractiveness of the real as one of the world’s great carry trade currencies. But Mr Volpon argues that the currency’s weakness has been exacerbated by the Great Unwind. During the Rousseff presidency, the central bank sold $114bn in currency swaps to help smooth volatility in the real, driven by domestic political uncertainty and doubts over US monetary policy. Under the swaps, the central bank committed to compensate counterparties for any fall in the real against the dollar in return for receiving interest payments at the Selic rate. The swaps provided a hedge for investors buying Brazilian real-denominated assets to take advantage of the carry trade. However, since 2016, the central bank has been reducing its stock of swaps because of lower market volatility. These totalled almost $24bn by the end of 2017. Without the swaps to act as a hedge, foreign investors have been reducing their exposure to the Brazilian carry trade even more, Mr Volpon said, in the process weakening the real. While Brazil’s fundamentals, such as its terms of trade, should justify a stronger currency, for now policymakers would likely welcome the boost to exports from the lacklustre real, Mr Volpon said. “I think a weaker currency is not a bad thing when your growth is still low,” he added. Others argue that the real’s weakness was likely to also be part of a “risk off” trend as investors fret the world is braced for the return of inflation and higher interest rates,

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which could tip developed markets into recession. “It’s not a Brazilian thing,” said Walter Molano, at BCP Securities, of the weakness affecting the real. In the meantime, the currency is likely to be buffeted by the October election. Polling at the weekend showed that jailing Mr Lula da Silva, who had been leading in the polls, had put extreme-right former army captain, Jair Bolsonaro, in the lead, followed by environmentalist Marina Silva and former chief justice Joaquim Barbosa. All of them face question marks over their ability to manage Latin America’s biggest economy or to continue with reforms started by Mr Temer. The economy is expected to expand 2.5 per cent this year and 2.8 per cent next year, according to estimates from FocusEconomics. “A market-friendly outcome from October’s elections is . . . critical to supporting the economy’s outlook,” FocusEconomics economist Angela Bouzanis wrote in a note.

Brazil lifts self-imposed embargo of certain BRF plants Reuters (Reino Unido) The Brazilian agriculture ministry will allow food company BRF SA, which was involved in a food safety scandal, to resume production at certain plants that export to the European Union, according to an official document dated April 17 sent to Reuters on Wednesday. The ministry had temporarily interrupted production and certification of BRF’s poultry exports to the EU in mid-March.

Mexico freezes government business with Brazil's Odebrecht for 2.5 yrs Reuters (Reino Unido)

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Mexico has issued an order prohibiting federal entities and state governments from doing business with Brazilian construction firm Odebrecht for the next 2 1/2 years, the federal government said in its official gazette. The government has banned the entities from “participating in federal public contracts or any contract with (Odebrecht)” the Public Administration Ministry said in the gazette, adding that the prohibition would last for two years and six months. In December, Mexico banned an affiliate of Odebrecht from bidding for federal public contracts for four years.

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