cme jba
The Vital Triangle By Jon B. Alterman and John W. Garver
1
2
The China Option “The chief advantage of China’s role in the region is its lack of political baggage.” —Dr. Abdulaziz Sager Gulf Research Center January 23, 2006
“China…[is] hindering international efforts to put pressure on dictators in Iran, Sudan, Zimbabwe, Burma and other pariah states…We must insist that China use its newfound power responsibly at home and abroad.” —Sen. John McCain May 1, 2007
3
Oil Production and Consumption 30,000
30,000
22,500
22,500
15,000
15,000
7,500
7,500
0 1986 1995 2005 2015 2025
China
0 1986 1995 2005 2015 2025
United States Consumption
Production
4
Energy Source Global Fuel Shares Oil
6%
Natural Gas
Coal
Nuclear
8%
Hydro/Renewables
5%
9% 32%
39% 24%
27%
23%
2001
26%
2030 Source: EIA
5
0 Middle East
Africa
S/C America
Russia
West Europe
Asia Pacific
Mexico
Canada
USA
World Proven Oil Reserves billions of barrels, (total =1,266 )
750
375
6
Sources of Chinese Oil Fraction of overall oil imports
0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 1991
1996 Middle East/North Africa Asia & Australia
2001 Africa FSU
Latin America Europe
7
Bilateral Trade with China 80
60
40
20
0 1999
2000 Saudi Arabia
2001 Iran
2002 UAE
2003 Israel
2004 Egypt
2005
2006 Other
8
Chinese Exports to Middle East Machinery and Transport Equipment Other Semi-Manufactures Textiles Clothing Iron and Steels Chemicals Agricultural Products Fuels and Mining Products Other Manufactures
12% 3% 3% 5%
35%
6% 10% 11%
15%
9
Chinese Imports from Iran 4% 2% 14%
80%
Crude Oil
Minerals
Chemicals
Other
Source: China Customs Yearbook, 2003 10
11
Chinese FDI 1%
7%
2%2%
7%
36%
14%
15%
Asia Latin America
Europe Africa
FSU Middle East
16%
South Asia
North America
Oceania
Source: Saunders, China’s Global Activism
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13
14
15
Conclusions • U.S. interests strategic and enduring • Chinese interests significant and growing • Middle East interests in China evolving
16
Recommendations • Build on security • •
Ship protocols, cargo identification Consequence management
• Create security framework that unites consumers and producers
• Create constructive role 17
1
2
The China Option “The chief advantage of China’s role in the region is its lack of political baggage.” —Dr. Abdulaziz Sager Gulf Research Center January 23, 2006
“China…[is] hindering international efforts to put pressure on dictators in Iran, Sudan, Zimbabwe, Burma and other pariah states…We must insist that China use its newfound power responsibly at home and abroad.” —Sen. John McCain May 1, 2007
3
Oil Production and Consumption 30,000
30,000
22,500
22,500
15,000
15,000
7,500
7,500
0 1986 1995 2005 2015 2025
China
0 1986 1995 2005 2015 2025
United States Consumption
Production
4
Energy Source Global Fuel Shares Oil
6%
Natural Gas
Coal
Nuclear
8%
Hydro/Renewables
5%
9% 32%
39% 24%
27%
23%
2001
26%
2030 Source: EIA
5
0 Middle East
Africa
S/C America
Russia
West Europe
Asia Pacific
Mexico
Canada
USA
World Proven Oil Reserves billions of barrels, (total =1,266 )
750
375
6
Sources of Chinese Oil Fraction of overall oil imports
0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 1991
1996 Middle East/North Africa Asia & Australia
2001 Africa FSU
Latin America Europe
7
Bilateral Trade with China 80
60
40
20
0 1999
2000 Saudi Arabia
2001 Iran
2002 UAE
2003 Israel
2004 Egypt
2005
2006 Other
8
Chinese Exports to Middle East Machinery and Transport Equipment Other Semi-Manufactures Textiles Clothing Iron and Steels Chemicals Agricultural Products Fuels and Mining Products Other Manufactures
12% 3% 3% 5%
35%
6% 10% 11%
15%
9
Chinese Imports from Iran 4% 2% 14%
80%
Crude Oil
Minerals
Chemicals
Other
Source: China Customs Yearbook, 2003 10
11
Chinese FDI 1%
7%
2%2%
7%
36%
14%
15%
Asia Latin America
Europe Africa
FSU Middle East
16%
South Asia
North America
Oceania
Source: Saunders, China’s Global Activism
12
13
14
15
Conclusions • U.S. interests strategic and enduring • Chinese interests significant and growing • Middle East interests in China evolving
16
Recommendations • Build on security • •
Ship protocols, cargo identification Consequence management
• Create security framework that unites consumers and producers
• Create constructive role 17
