CO recession
Colorado Recovery Watch Oct. 22, 2010 Fifteen months after the official end of the recession, the national and Colorado economies continue to stagnate with painfully high levels of unemployment. Unemployment In September, the Colorado unemployment rate crept up to 8.2 percent, uncomfortably close to the state’s peak unemployment rate of 8.3 percent from more than a year ago. (Figure 1) Even at that high rate, Colorado continues to perform better than the nation as a whole, where the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 9.6 percent in September. (Figure 1) Relative to other states, Colorado’s unemployment rate is the 20th lowest, and its increase in unemployment rate since the start of the downturn ranks 23rd lowest.i Figure 1
Unemploment stays high after the recession 2007 Recession
11% 10%
2001 Recession
Unemployment rate
9% 8% 7% 6%
9.6% 8.2%
5% U.S. Colorado
4% 3% 2% 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (data through September 2010)
Employment Employment losses in Colorado have been dramatic, continuing well after the official end of the recession. (Figure 2) Since the onset of the downturn, Colorado has lost 153,000 jobs, or 6.5 percent of its nonfarm labor force. That loss ranks 13th worst in the country.ii In September, state employment decreased by another 200 jobs, and was down 22,200 jobs from a year prior. Page 1 of 4 Colorado Fiscal Policy Institute, a project of the Colorado Center on Law and Policy 789 Sherman Street, Suite 300, Denver, Colorado 80203 / 303-573-5669 / www.cclponline.org
Figure 2
2,350
2007 Recession
2,300 2,250
2001 Recession
Seasonally adjusted non-farm employment ('000s)
Colorado employment unchanged in September 2,400
2,200 2,150 2,100 2,050 2,000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (data through September 2010)
Construction jobs The construction sector was one of the hardest hit during the Great Recession, to date losing more than one-third of total employment since the downturn began. (Figure 3) In September, Colorado construction was unchanged for the second straight month. (Figure 3) That standstill is a positive change after such a prolonged decline. Figure 3
COLORADO CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT (September 2010) This month
109,300
CHANGE:
LEVEL AND PERCENTAGE CHANGE:
Since beginning of recession
DATES
-57,400
-34.4%
Dec.-07
to
Sept.-10
0
0.0%
Aug.-10
to
Sept.-10
Last three months
-2,200
-2.0%
Jun.-10
to
Sept.-10
Last six months
-3,300
-2.9%
Mar.-10
to
Sept.-10
Last year
-14,200
-11.5
Sept.-09
to
Sept.-10
Since last month
Source: Economic Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics Survey
Job shortfall Job shortfall is a calculation to help put longer-term changes in employment into context. It measures the difference between actual employment and what employment would need to be to keep up with population growth—in essence how far behind state employment has fallen during a downturn. Tracking from the onset of the recession in December 2007 to September 2010, the Colorado job shortfall stands at 270,293 jobs. (Figure 4)
Page 2 of 4 Colorado Fiscal Policy Institute, a project of the Colorado Center on Law and Policy 789 Sherman Street, Suite 300, Denver, Colorado 80203 / 303-573-5669 / www.cclponline.org
Figure 4
COLORADO JOB SHORTFALL SINCE ONSET OF DOWNTURN (December 2007 to September 2010) Working-age population growth
5.0%lank
Employment this month Employment level needed (the total number of jobs in the state if job growth kept pace with working age population growth)
2,196,200lank 2,466,493lank
Job shortfall
270,293 ank
Source: Economic Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics Survey
Medicaid and CHP+ In recent years, Colorado has seen consistent and substantial caseload growth in Medicaid and the Child Health Plan Plus (CHP+), programs that provide medical care for low-income residents and children, respectively. Enrollment growth in those programs accelerated during the recession and continues to outpace population growth. (Figure 5) In the current fiscal year, total Medicaid and CHP+ enrollment has grown by 12,378 thus far. The Medicaid and CHP+ programs now serve a total of 610,130 Coloradans.iii Figure 5
Colorado combined Medicaid and CHP+ caseload growth dramatically outpaces population growth 25% 19.9%
Colorado population
Growth rate
20%
Medicaid and CHP+
13.7%
15%
8.7%
10% 5%
2.1% 0.3%
1.7%
1.9%
FY 2009-10
FY 2008-09
2.7%
0% FY 2010-11 todate
2007 Recession
Source: Analysis of HCPF Premiums, Expenditures and Caseload Reports thru Aug. 2010 Monthly population change is estimated based on figures from Colorado Legislative Council. The 2007 recession was from December 2007 to June 2009
Food assistance The recession touched off a substantial need for the food assistance provided by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program (SNAP), formerly known as food stamps. That need has outlived the official duration of the Great Recession (December 2007 to June 2009). According to the most recent count in July 2010, 419,737 Coloradans receive food stamps. That is up 69 percent since dramatic growth began with the onset of the recent recession.iv (Figure 6) Page 3 of 4 Colorado Fiscal Policy Institute, a project of the Colorado Center on Law and Policy 789 Sherman Street, Suite 300, Denver, Colorado 80203 / 303-573-5669 / www.cclponline.org
Figure 6 450,000
Colorado food stamp enrollment growth continues after recession 419,737
Number of individuals
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
2007 recession 200,000 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: Analysis of U.S. Department of Agriculture SNAP program data (through July 2010)
No news is bad news The Colorado and national economies are no longer seeing the massive job losses they experienced during the past two years. However, the prolonged stagnation and its effects on Coloradans — measured in part by the continued growth in need for food stamps and public health options — are equally dramatic. Contact: Alec Harris Policy analyst [email protected] 303-573-5669, ext. 316
i
Economic Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Current Employment Survey data.
ii
Economic Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Current Employment Survey data. The fact that Colorado has a relatively poor ranking in employment losses and a relatively good ranking for change in unemployment rate is likely due to labor force dropout. If individuals become unemployed and stop looking for work, their dropout has opposite effects on the measures of employment and unemployment. Dropout lowers the employment count. However, it also improves the unemployment rate, which only counts those employed or looking for work. iii
Analysis of “Premiums, Expenditures and Caseload Report,” Colorado Department of Health Care Policy Financing, Aug. 2010 report. iv
Analysis of U.S. Department of Agriculture SNAP program data, provided by: “SNAP/food stamp participation data,” Food Research and Action Center, Oct. 4, 2010.
Page 4 of 4 Colorado Fiscal Policy Institute, a project of the Colorado Center on Law and Policy 789 Sherman Street, Suite 300, Denver, Colorado 80203 / 303-573-5669 / www.cclponline.org
Unemploment stays high after the recession 2007 Recession
11% 10%
2001 Recession
Unemployment rate
9% 8% 7% 6%
9.6% 8.2%
5% U.S. Colorado
4% 3% 2% 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (data through September 2010)
Employment Employment losses in Colorado have been dramatic, continuing well after the official end of the recession. (Figure 2) Since the onset of the downturn, Colorado has lost 153,000 jobs, or 6.5 percent of its nonfarm labor force. That loss ranks 13th worst in the country.ii In September, state employment decreased by another 200 jobs, and was down 22,200 jobs from a year prior. Page 1 of 4 Colorado Fiscal Policy Institute, a project of the Colorado Center on Law and Policy 789 Sherman Street, Suite 300, Denver, Colorado 80203 / 303-573-5669 / www.cclponline.org
Figure 2
2,350
2007 Recession
2,300 2,250
2001 Recession
Seasonally adjusted non-farm employment ('000s)
Colorado employment unchanged in September 2,400
2,200 2,150 2,100 2,050 2,000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (data through September 2010)
Construction jobs The construction sector was one of the hardest hit during the Great Recession, to date losing more than one-third of total employment since the downturn began. (Figure 3) In September, Colorado construction was unchanged for the second straight month. (Figure 3) That standstill is a positive change after such a prolonged decline. Figure 3
COLORADO CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT (September 2010) This month
109,300
CHANGE:
LEVEL AND PERCENTAGE CHANGE:
Since beginning of recession
DATES
-57,400
-34.4%
Dec.-07
to
Sept.-10
0
0.0%
Aug.-10
to
Sept.-10
Last three months
-2,200
-2.0%
Jun.-10
to
Sept.-10
Last six months
-3,300
-2.9%
Mar.-10
to
Sept.-10
Last year
-14,200
-11.5
Sept.-09
to
Sept.-10
Since last month
Source: Economic Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics Survey
Job shortfall Job shortfall is a calculation to help put longer-term changes in employment into context. It measures the difference between actual employment and what employment would need to be to keep up with population growth—in essence how far behind state employment has fallen during a downturn. Tracking from the onset of the recession in December 2007 to September 2010, the Colorado job shortfall stands at 270,293 jobs. (Figure 4)
Page 2 of 4 Colorado Fiscal Policy Institute, a project of the Colorado Center on Law and Policy 789 Sherman Street, Suite 300, Denver, Colorado 80203 / 303-573-5669 / www.cclponline.org
Figure 4
COLORADO JOB SHORTFALL SINCE ONSET OF DOWNTURN (December 2007 to September 2010) Working-age population growth
5.0%lank
Employment this month Employment level needed (the total number of jobs in the state if job growth kept pace with working age population growth)
2,196,200lank 2,466,493lank
Job shortfall
270,293 ank
Source: Economic Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics Survey
Medicaid and CHP+ In recent years, Colorado has seen consistent and substantial caseload growth in Medicaid and the Child Health Plan Plus (CHP+), programs that provide medical care for low-income residents and children, respectively. Enrollment growth in those programs accelerated during the recession and continues to outpace population growth. (Figure 5) In the current fiscal year, total Medicaid and CHP+ enrollment has grown by 12,378 thus far. The Medicaid and CHP+ programs now serve a total of 610,130 Coloradans.iii Figure 5
Colorado combined Medicaid and CHP+ caseload growth dramatically outpaces population growth 25% 19.9%
Colorado population
Growth rate
20%
Medicaid and CHP+
13.7%
15%
8.7%
10% 5%
2.1% 0.3%
1.7%
1.9%
FY 2009-10
FY 2008-09
2.7%
0% FY 2010-11 todate
2007 Recession
Source: Analysis of HCPF Premiums, Expenditures and Caseload Reports thru Aug. 2010 Monthly population change is estimated based on figures from Colorado Legislative Council. The 2007 recession was from December 2007 to June 2009
Food assistance The recession touched off a substantial need for the food assistance provided by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program (SNAP), formerly known as food stamps. That need has outlived the official duration of the Great Recession (December 2007 to June 2009). According to the most recent count in July 2010, 419,737 Coloradans receive food stamps. That is up 69 percent since dramatic growth began with the onset of the recent recession.iv (Figure 6) Page 3 of 4 Colorado Fiscal Policy Institute, a project of the Colorado Center on Law and Policy 789 Sherman Street, Suite 300, Denver, Colorado 80203 / 303-573-5669 / www.cclponline.org
Figure 6 450,000
Colorado food stamp enrollment growth continues after recession 419,737
Number of individuals
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
2007 recession 200,000 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: Analysis of U.S. Department of Agriculture SNAP program data (through July 2010)
No news is bad news The Colorado and national economies are no longer seeing the massive job losses they experienced during the past two years. However, the prolonged stagnation and its effects on Coloradans — measured in part by the continued growth in need for food stamps and public health options — are equally dramatic. Contact: Alec Harris Policy analyst [email protected] 303-573-5669, ext. 316
i
Economic Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Current Employment Survey data.
ii
Economic Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Current Employment Survey data. The fact that Colorado has a relatively poor ranking in employment losses and a relatively good ranking for change in unemployment rate is likely due to labor force dropout. If individuals become unemployed and stop looking for work, their dropout has opposite effects on the measures of employment and unemployment. Dropout lowers the employment count. However, it also improves the unemployment rate, which only counts those employed or looking for work. iii
Analysis of “Premiums, Expenditures and Caseload Report,” Colorado Department of Health Care Policy Financing, Aug. 2010 report. iv
Analysis of U.S. Department of Agriculture SNAP program data, provided by: “SNAP/food stamp participation data,” Food Research and Action Center, Oct. 4, 2010.
Page 4 of 4 Colorado Fiscal Policy Institute, a project of the Colorado Center on Law and Policy 789 Sherman Street, Suite 300, Denver, Colorado 80203 / 303-573-5669 / www.cclponline.org
